european markets open flat after losses. cutting projections for the s&p 500 amid a $2 trillion rout. the new year begins with old problems for the pboc, as the fx reserves fall to a four-year low. low for longer. the bloomberg exclusive, world's largest energy trader says the phrases could persist for a decade. more from him throughout the hour. welcome to "the paul's," live from london, i'm francine
lacqua. european markets -- little changed after drops. let's check in with mark barton. mark: let's start with the stock xx 600. lower, higher, coming down once again. we fell by 4.8% last week, easily way to get the gains of the prior two weeks, amounting to 3.8%. still, the index is down by 11% this year, one trillion euros, on track for its worst year since 2011. the macro highlight of this week is janet yellen, appeared before congress. she is going to have to strike, francine, some sort of balance andetween caution confidence, but the domestic economy is in good shape after those jobs numbers on friday. this is the interest rate projection, fed fund futures now saying we will see a 53% chanc
e of a said rate hike in december -- chance of a fed rate hike in december. this is thursday's figure, below 50%. there is now more than a 50% chance that the fed will raise rates in 2016. we have the economy adding 151,000 jobs last month, average earnings rising the most in a year, which has got people rethinking their interest rate projections. i want to stick with the u.s., because this was the big decline or last week. the nasdaq 100 plunged by 6% last week, falling by 12% to 2016. we had disappointing results from the likes of linkedin to tableau, feeding fears that momentum shares, francine, are hitting a wall at the same time that the economic data are showing growth slowing in services and manufacturing industries.
linkedin was the big decline are on friday, sinking over 40%. francine. francine: mark barton there with your asset check. now let's get straight to the first word with nejra cehic. nejra: thanks. china's foreign currency reserves have fallen to a four-year low, dropping $99.5 billion in january, continuing a slump from 2015. pressure ons policymakers to strengthen the economy through fiscal easing and structural reform. minister arabian oil says he held successful talks with the venezuelan a cachet to stabilize the current market, however he did not reveal what steps users should take to shore up prices. the u.s. has opened the door to a ballistic missile defense system that could reshape the defense landscape. it comes after north korea launched a long-range rocket over the weekend.
from the bloomberg first work desk, i'm nejra cehic. francine: seven strategists have lowered their projections for the smp amid a route that has whacked more than $2 trillion. we have the founding and managing director -- thanks so much for having us. it is going to be a brutal week. markets are concerned about something, but we aren't sure what. possible negative interest rates in the u.s., we don't know what the reserves in china are looking at -- when will markets start feeling confident? >> i think the markets need to see some signal from central banks and geopolitics that things are calming down a little bit. withyou saw last week japan going to negative rates, although it is on tha tier
basis, it's not like all of the reserves -- another central-bank joining the camp of negative rates. you could look at that as a way to say that the current system is not working. we're really in uncharted territory. havenot only qe, you also geopolitics continuing to play a big role, with north korea, a lot of implications with china, and also the middle east. francine: i'm not sure what needs to happen. central banks are doing their best, but they are struggling because growth is so little. unless they have a repeat of the financial crisis, will be stay this way? >> absolutely. the scenario of this new paradigm is going to be there for a while, so it's really above that market -- really about the market adapting to that reality, finding pockets of
growth in a much more flexible way than they have been used to in the past 10 or 20 years. i think that is really what is happening. francine: thank you so much. she stays with us for the next 40 minutes. let's go straight to one of our top corporate stories, europe's best-performing stock up 28% since january 1. profits for the last quarter put the 10% hit at the dollar took its toll one gold. let's bring in mark bristol, who joins us by phone. great to have you on the show. what's your take on gold prices from here? we see a nice job -- will it continue? >> i think that many factors will drive the gold price, the right now, listening to your program, the global economy is a little bit confused, and the messaging coming out of all the different sectors is also confusing, and that is good for gold. people aren't sure about
currencies. lowve got low growth and interest rates, and one of the overheatedsks is the state of the chinese economy, and generally in asia, that big surprise in japan, and all that helps. on the flipside, the supply-side of gold is still probably too high, and still not profitable, and i think that is something we need to reduce, as far as new gold supply goes, and i think we are slowly seeing the industry and the company starting to have a very stressed market. everything looks positive. francine
francine: it looks positive, but we also have comments from the anglo american ceo, a frank and brutal assessment of the industry. it may benefit goal because it is a haven, but how tough is 2016 going to be for the world economy? >> i think the world in 2016 will be tough for everyone. i think the gold industry is probably getting a better gasario than the oil and industry, and i think generally, when companies are so standard groceries around the world are having to cut jobs and struggle to survive, i think the whole world is in a situation where 2016 will be a year of welath preservation -- wealth preservation rather than creation. francine: are you expecting a
lot more volatility in the price of gold, and do you think there has been enough pain to flush out the weaker rivals? a i think we're going to see trading range of around -- we've always said, for the next two years, i think we will be middle of the range for the next while. a pain is coming. everyone is celebrating this $50 increase in gold, but at the end of the day, i remind you, when we spoke last year, it was slightly above, and we were all struggling. i think ultimately the big driver is that the inherent lack of capital with a consumptive industry, we haven't been finding the gold we have been mining. there's a real squeeze in the gold industry, more so than we see in the other resource
sectors. francine: what are the chances of a recession this year? a global recession? >> i think the chances are certainly -- i would put them as even at the moment, but one of the things i have always said is politicalk at the everyone tried8, realization of some of the massive losses that we saw across the world in that time. they tried to package it and traded out. -- and trade it out. those stresses are still there. at the end of the day, the world needs to balance its balance sheet, and that is what people woke up to after christmas. we can't keep bluffing the pain
and the realities of our past behaviors. we have to manage them up in the global industry. francine: mark, what is your take on dollar? you mentioned there is a strong correlation between dollar and gold. that has an impact on your bottom line. ben bernanke just a couple weeks ago said we are seeing the end of the dollar rally. is that right? isi think that the dollar overbought. -- there isely definitely more logic or it to declined and to drop. it immediately starts becoming a orden for a growing recovering economy in the u.s. at the same time, francine, when you look at the gold price relative to the gdp growth, the s&p or dow indices, the u.s.
equities indices, there has been in the last short while a massive disconnection -- a mass of disconnection. it doesn't make sense, where the dollar sits today. then, we've got to see -- only other thing is that everyone is trying to devalue their currency against the dollar, so this race to the bottom is still there, and for some reason, the u.s. federal reserve feels it's not necessary economynd keep the u.s. competitive. it's allowed the dollar to grow in strength. francine: mark, what's your outlook for m&a?
you abandoned a joint venture with anglo gold, and a lot of investors say that means your growth potential, what you have in the pipeline, is limited. are you looking for something else? do you want to buy something straight out? usfundamentally, what's got to where we are today very clearly is separate, the fact that we have the discipline and is to create value. the easiest way to do that is through exploration, discovery, and development. at the same time, our biggest deal was in m&a transaction in the form of the mutter acquisition, but it fettered our criteria. industry,k at the oil, gas, base metals, and gold, the situation they find themselves in today is because of the lack of discipline in the way they run their business in vain acquisitions, assuming
everything was going to continue to grow, including the commodity prices. we've been a lot more sanguine and disciplined in what we do, and i always say that the biggest driver of our success is the things we didn't do. we have a clear set of forces in which we run our opportunities, and it didn't meet that. we posted very strong results this quarter in whichever way you cut it. no debt, no payments, profitable, still advertising all are capital. it's a real deal company. we have no intention to change that formula. francine: mark, thank you so much. mark bristow. we were just saying in the introduction to your share price.
stay with "the pulse," plenty more coming up, including a china council cop of the yuan defense. then, the world's largest oil trader says the days of $100 oil for over for good. that's as oil hits a record low, although investors can't agree on whether to go long or short. threatensn. new sanctions against north korea as they launch a long-range rocket. ♪
francine: welcome back to "the pulse." let's get to the bloomberg business flash with nejra cehic. nejra: thanks. kathy know has agreed to sell its stake in a supercenter for 3.1 billion euros, which will reduce borrowing after they attacked the french retailer for allegedly understating its debt. volkswagen says it will publish its results as soon as april. it may hold a shareholder meeting four to six weeks later. wine is on course to clearance to open its first retail stores in india, according to a person with knowledge been. -- with with knowledge of the matter. that was your bloomberg business flash. francine: thank you.
china's foreign exchange reserves fell to the smallest since 2012 in january, the biggest currency record decreased by $9.9 billion. the pboc also indicated that they sold dollars to protect the yuan. let's welcome in bloomberg's asia emerging markets fx energy oneditor. what does this tell us about the health of the chinese economy? >> hi, francine. what this tells us is it raises thed flag, and that depreciation on the yuan continues. one has to be really wary of reading too much into the fact that the figures turn out to be less than expected, because in december we had a record drop of $108 billion, and january it was $99.5 billion.
it's not very far from the record. if mexico had depleted its reserves by $100 billion, it would have wiped out more than half its stockpile. indonesia would have wiped out all, as well as malaysia. clearly tells us there a lot of depreciation pressure on the yuan, and it complicates the pboc's efforts to boost the currency at the same time as boosting the economy. francine: what does it mean that they will have to focus on? if you are the pboc, how are you doing this? what is your next step? >> the next step is really difficult to say. what they can't afford to do is allow a huge depreciation in the yuan, because lots of foreign money in china, lots of turmoil, if you let the currency decline systemic, financial risks. at the same time, the pboc will
probably try to resort to some sort of gradual fiscal easing to try and boost the economy while not allowing a sharp devaluation in its currency. francine: all right. thinking so much, robin. let's get straight to the global a look atnk -- take this chart. options on december 2017 -- euro-dollar futures imply that the u.s. will join five other central banks in cutting rates. this goes back to the fact that -- you are nervous. you have been nervous for a while. in seeing how central banks do next. are they now the only game in town, and one of the chance of u.s. negative rate? >> i think the chances of u.s. negative rates are quite good, that we have to be cognizant of
the fact that in europe and japan, if a negative rate comes, the balance of central banks are using even more unconventional measures. the u.s. economy, relative to the rest of the world, is in a good spot, but clearly my view is that there would be four rate for normalization. francine: is that it, then, for interest rates? >> i think it 2016 we possibly have one or two, but it is going to be very slow. it will depend on the global economy. a very strong u.s. dollar is not good for the global economy, because it is very deflationary. the fact that the wages in the u.s. went up is a very good p oint, but i think it is premature to say we won the battle.
i think this disruption from technology, alot of capacity, supply and demand in many different sectors, will continue to bring low-inflation. francine: and this goes to -- we heard from the randgold ce sayingo he is nervous, and anglo ceo saying it will be the worst year yet. a tougher 2016 and no rest bpite -- are we sure it is not a recession looming, markets being beacons of what will happen? >> i think there is a difference between supply and demand in oil or commodities and the rest of the world, but i think technology progress has made it such that there is a capacity in a lot of other sectors. in banking, for example. a lot of capacity in clothing. a lot of different areas.
i think it is more about this adjustment, and therefore assessing this trend of demand. the strength of the demand in some emerging economies has bee n there mostly because of other issues. if you're -- i call it turning table. the new oil divided geopolitics, because a lot of emerging markets me their wealth on commodity export are hurt. that consumer demand, in turn, is being effected while you have demographic trends in a lot of developed markets that are naturally abating demand as we know it. that doesn't mean we won't have growth in certain areas -- like new luxury, health care, gadgets, experiences. we will find pockets of growth, but this theme of supply and demand and thinking about demand and growth in the ways is absolutely going to stay with us. francine: but the problem with
what you are saying is that it means that deflation could stick. we're not talking about europe becoming japan. >> struggled deflationary -- francine: the central banks can't fight it. goal, and they are not used to that. if you want to put it in terms of capitalism versus other systems, capitalism is moving toward administrative measures, unconventional measures, well china, which was the king of administrative measures, is trying to move closer to the more natural forces in the market. it's finding it a bit difficult, at place with the reserve numbers. francine: do you think they will devalue the yuan? >> i think it is not in china's interest. what is happening in china is is transition to a more sophisticated, advanced economy, and we should expect the reserves to come down. remember, those reserves were built on the fact that china grew to be the trader of the
world, the manufacturing place of the world, the fact that goods were exported around the world. this is being altered, and china is hoping to rebalance the economy. we should expect reserves to be gone. how we cushion the perception from the market with regards to currency that it's not becoming freer, as we know with the imf, is going to be seen -- my senses have pockets of worry that china will try to hold on. francine: thank you so much. she stays with us. up next, lower for longer. an exclusive interview with the ceo of the world's largest energy trader, saying that we might never get back $100 oil. he's painting a pretty picture. that is after we heard from the ceo of anglo american, the worst performer on the u.k. no respite in 2016.
francine: welcome to "the pulse," live from london. let's get straight to the bloomberg first were news with nejra cehic. nejra: thanks. china's foreign currency reserves have all into a near or your loan, dropping to $99.4 billion in january, continuing islam from 2015 at the people's bank of china to shore up the yuan. foradds pressure to fiscal reforms. e saudi oil minister says
he has talked with the --ezuelan counterpart the u.s. has opened the door to a parking a ballistic missile defense system on north korea's doorstep, a move that could reshape the region security landscape. it comes after north korea launched a long-range rocket over the weekend. the denver broncos won super bowl 50. the linebacker was named the most valuable player, as the most-watched sporting event -- global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists and more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i'm nejra cehic. francine: thank you. i just a rubric -- i look at the super bowl. on the oil market with mark barton. up, but we are touch lower, coming off a
massive weekly drop, 8% for the wti price. this is a 12 month chart. you know the trend -- it is very much your friend. that 8% decline followed gains of percent in the prior two weeks. the saudi arabia's oil minister met with his venezuelan nonterpart on sunday, elaboration on steps required to shore up the market. would eatec members up to attending an extraordinary meeting. money managers may not agree on where oil prices are headed, but they are increasingly eager to wager their bets. totals a great chart -- wagers of the price of wti, climbing to the highest since u.s. commodity futures trading commission began tracking the data in 2006. the white line is long, orange
line is short. speculators who are betting on higher prices -- quite incredible. ,299t rose by 17, contracts. why is that amazing? because it is just shy of an all-time high, reached just three weeks ago. longs, the orange line, bet the price will rise, climbing just over 12,000 to 301,000. according to the chief executive of the officer of the world biggest independent oil trading house, oil will stay lower for longer, possibly for as much as chinese economic growth slows the shale industry. he says isis will likely balance between $40 and $60 per barrel,
with the midpoint range of $50. as i showed you in the original chart, crude oil is trading around $30. that is a $20 upside. this year, we are down 16% in last 12 months. francine: mark, thank you so much. in the last couple minutes, we had a breaking news. stoxx 600 fully to the lowest level since december in 2014. we're seeing quite a lot of pressure on the commodity stocks after the anglo american ceo saying he doesn't see the rout coming to an end. he is expecting a tough year. oil prices could stay low for his long as 10 years, according to the world's biggest oil trader, speaking exclusively to ryan chilcote in a very rare interview. the vitol ceo says a slowing china economy will act as a cap on any price rally. >> this situation where we have
too much supply, the balances do not look like they are timing out yet. we're still seeing bills in the u.s. i don't think we can say the price has bottomed out. ryan: if you have to put your money on a number, which hopefully you don't, the brent price at the end of the air would be what? >> $40. you can come back and kill me because i'm sure all the wrong. ryan: [laughter] [laughter] so you don't see a sharp rebound in prices. why not? >> i know oil majors don't believe this -- there's so much stock built up in the world, and i think we just believe it will take a long time to work off that stock, and that will happen over time. nobody is going to wake up and say there is no oil left. i think the world continues to be plentifully stocked. ryan: how long does it take to work through the stock? how long does it take us to say to get back to $100?
>> do you ever get back to $100? ryan: should i change the question? >> i think there's so much more supply. we are being more efficient. u.k. consumption of oil is going down. not much, but it is going down. efficiency in cars is going up tremendously, as it is in airplanes. you have to believe that there is a possibility you will not necessarily go back above $100, ever. i know i'm very old and have been doing this for a while, but if you think about the last 50 years, we've only been above $100 for a very slim number of those years. and china has changed. china's huge growth in those middle to thousands has been something that was very dramatic, happened at a time when the oil industry was investing, happened at a time when we didn't have things like shell. that growth and that whole of resources has changed. you have said that you see
oil prices at the end of this year at $48 per barrel. the year after, the year after that, where do we move in the meantime? >> i think we do imagine a band. tod naturally see it at $40 $60. we do believe that something like $60 could bring back on some of the oil fields, which will probably go out. u.s. shares have huge amount of discussions, and i think the oil industry understands economics. for us, it's clear that a lot of the oil that is going to be shut down in the next year or so, because it is simply too low a price, it could come back. that's very interesting. the guys think it's doing better, and we see that at $50. ryan: this lasts until when? >> with a decline every year, i
could see it lasting for five to ten years. francine: all right. let's bring in our editor for international governments. also with us is the global ad viros. thank you for staying. when you look at the price of oil -- venezuela saying we're nowhere near a single cut rate. we're not going to see a cut in oil production. >> it certainly doesn't look like it, no. we've heard about the longer-term view for the oil price. for independents in venezuela, this is going to hurt. it's quite interesting -- there's been some worry about how venezuela's bond payments -- january should be ok, though we are entering a real crunch period now, where people aren't so sure if they will be able to
make your next payment. in a lot of ways, this crystallizes the crisis. a lot of other emerging economies -- francine: venezuela -- all of these big, oil-producing countries are feeling pain, including saudi arabia. >> nigeria, angola, russia -, brazil -- this will stay with us for a long time. some analysts worry about whether this could be the spark for another emerging market crisis. no one reckoned oil prices staying this low. it will have huge repercussions, but how it will play out as uncertainty. francine: saudi arabia holds the key, right? they are saying we don't do anything if russia doesn't cut, but there must be a price of oil iran saudi says, i've hurt enough, now i want to cut production. is that right? >> well, last year, opec
increase production. i think the problem is if you think that the oil price goes back up, that makes sense. if you think we are in an environment where the oil price continues to go down, the producers want cash, as much cash today as in two years, when they think they will have less. at the same time, you have this game, alternative sources, china with -- i think in the long term, it's really more about india. india is the country that by 2025 will be as large in terms of number of people as china. india's oil consumption, in my view, in this low growth environment we are in, is what will move the needle, but that will take time. >> pakistan is bad as well. 1.5 billion people. that's really quite a lot. something with india -- if you look at the market reaction, obviously it's a huge benefit
for the economy, but given the fact that it is making emerging market investors worry, on the flip side, it also hurts india, but the economy should be good. francine: one last question. are you concerned -- if saudi were to cut production, with it materially impact the price of oil, or have they lost that power? >> i think the expectation of them cutting would definitely have an impact. however, you would have to see what else is added. think about iran coming back online, the speed of renewable as well as shell and technology innovation. all of this is not simple -- that's a lesson -- it's not as simple as it used to be, where you had opec deciding in the rest of the world -- and now you have many different factors. i think they're producing for cash. i think it will be hard. oil prices will follow in a no
growth world until you have a new source of demand or a very strong conflict that creates shutdowns that are not expected. i think it's fair to say the oil price will be quite low for longer. francine: thank you so much. stay, and we talk about north korean next. the u.n. ready sanctions on north korea as the country launches a long-range missile. you break down the domestic politics behind the incident. ♪
francine: welcome back to "the pulse," live from london. let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash with nejra cehic. nejra: thanks. eau has agreed to sell its stake in the supercenter, which will reduce borrowing after the french retailer was attacked for allegedly understating debt. anglo-american ceo says he sees as mining prices -- speaking at an industry conference in south africa, he slagged "significant changes of the copper business," and added that things may get worse before they get better. the commodities rout passing
70% of the company's value wiped out. vw says it will publish its annual results as soon as april, and may hold the shareholders meeting in early june, four to six weeks later than scheduled, as they determine the financial allah from the scandal." to wins on course clearance to open its first retail stores in india, according to a person with knowledge bill. -- with with knowledge of the matter. francine? francine: thank you. here to discuss the political ramifications of north korea's launch of a long-range rocket is bloomberg's executive editor or international government, john trotter. the global advisors still with us. also with us, ahead of the hf program from harris. thanks for joining us. on a kickoff with you. what exactly is north korea's endgame?
how far will they go? there are ahink number of factors motivating north korea. -- north koreans. kim jong-un is trying to strengthen their military capabilities, and part of that is the desire to demonstrate that he can keep the country attempt tos also an take one step forward in moving closer to the ability to link north korea's nuclear capabilities with its delivery capabilities. in other words, an affected ballistic missile. francine: how far away are we from? -- are we from that? >> it is difficult to say, but the latest launch seems to suggest that they have moved a major step forward in terms of military capability. there is some suggestion that the payload on this particular launch was heavier than a december 12. -- than in december 12. most analysts think they are year or two away from linking
their nuclear and delivery capabilities, but that is something of an educated guess. francine: john, what do you make of this? at the end of the day, doesn't have to be china that loses patience, because they are the chosen ally? >> i think that is right. what we have heard over the last 24 hours is very predictable, outrage and anger into rotand rotation. the key to this is china, the chinese banking system. that is how you really make sanctions against north korea hurt. i think the china relation is very important. it's interesting news yesterday about how the u.s. and north korea might accept the deployment of the missile defense system on the u.s. that could be a real game changer. there are risks but it is something we haven't seen before. francine: we started off the
conversation talking about how central banks are doing so much, and how were you are about geopolitics. as an investor, when this happens -- we had something similar five or six weeks ago -- how do you look at it and what does it mean? >> two things. that stocks that pay attention to geopolitics -- it will have an impact, even long-term. i think specifically with regard to this event, it's putting back on the stage the fact that china's relationship with north korea has changed with the two new leaders. i also think that what is important to remember is that the end goal that china wants is the same as the one that the u.s. wants. it's the way you get there that is different. if the u.s. is talking about deploying a shield, and with all the issues we have in the south china sea, that is going one step too far. although china want those
nuclear test to stop, it doesn't have the same needs as before, and this drastic action i think is probably going to be very difficult to accept. francine: john, how close are we to superpower confrontation in 2016? i know it is a loaded question, but bbc did a documentary called "world war iii." >> definitely not world war iii, but one shouldn't underestimate the gravity of the situation. that thernin is international community has little of can do to escape her efforts. political statements, as we have seen, to investigations by individual countries, ever tighter economic sanctions, is a good way of expressing concern, that it is not very effective as a means of delaying this progress. china's position is that it wants to avoid economic sanctions, because it fears the risk of a possible imposition.
a vacuum would emerge in north therefore the chinese position has been to say that the americans need to sit down to and negotiate. that, of course, in an election year, is quite unrealistic. no politician would consider that option. and of course it is with the north koreans would like to see. they want the recognition, the talks the americans would provide. i think what we will see is more economic rusher, and -- economic pressure, and we will see north korea continue to test. at some point, we will reach a critical tipping point, where the north does have the capability to deploy a nuclear warhead on a missile, and that is the real game changer. but we are year or two away from that development. francine: john, thank you so much. coming up on the program, we
is portugal a model for spain? hans: well, potentially. what we have portugal is a situation where a minority government came in at the end of november, writing budgets, clearly violating eu rules. the eu has been able to finesse this, and wet he said on friday is that there are a lot of long, hard slogs ahead for portugal. in spain's day, you had the socialist party looking to potentially form another minority coalition. here's the challenge in spain. when you look at the numbers, the socialist party got about 90 votes. there are some 350 available. in second place, even if you'd twin those parties, you still need more to get there. if you look at those spreads between portuguese debt and german debt, may have been widening all morning. francine: hans, thank you so much.
hans nichols on one of the most important stories we will be watching this year as the eurozone is sticking together. european stocks have fallen for a sixth day. earlier the hour, let's go straight -- is go straight to mark barton. mark: the twelve-month chart -- we have fallen to the lowest level since october, 2014. we rose for two weeks and came down for the second. half a look at randgold resources. it's the biggest stock gain or in europe this year, up by 31%. of the white line is the share price this year. the blue line is the average analyst estimates over 12 months. what's interesting is the gap between the two is the widest since 2009. tooanalysts -- are analysts dovish or have the stoxx gone too far? questions, questions, questions. francine: thank you so much.
francine: stocks turn red. european equities drop for a sixth today. u.s. futures trade lower as strategists cut targets. the new year begins with old problems for the pboc. fx reserves fall to a four-year low. in a bloomberg exclusive, the world's largest energy trader says low oil prices could hurt it for a decade. this is "surveillance." tom, we start a new week, same problems, and markets are lower. tom: i completely