tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg February 8, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm EST
on bloomberg special reports the selloff. i'm brendan greeley. joe: i'm joe weisenthal. alix: and i'm alix steel. we want to get to julie hyman at the markets desk we continue to deteriorate. right, julie? julie: yes, and there was not a particular catalyst for this selloff. there did not seem to be anything new that was out in the markets today, so that is findingg investors are unsettling here, especially when the nasdaq is down more than 3% and approaching a bear market. look at the s&p over the course of the day and the lows as it continues to bump along the bottom in the session. also take a look at the breath of the market. if you look at the imap on the bloomberg, all of the industry
groups are trading lower. been week all year, the financials the worst-performing group your today. discretionary, health care, really anything having to do with sensitivity to economic growth has been doing poorly in today's session. also, we're seeing money flow into where people perceive as less risky. alix: so, you see money going into gold, the 10-year? julie: exactly. gold trading at their highs since last summer. gold has been on this run since the beginning of the year. if you go back and look at gold since last june, it has once again gone above $1200 an ounce. also, people buying the fix today, the volatility -- buying today, the volatility
index, also called the fear index. not a huge spike, but above the 25 threshold that characterizes times of higher concern. and finally the yield on the 10-year is notable as well. 1.73%. it keeps going lower and lower. it is the lowest in about a year. people are buying treasuries as well, an area they perceived to be less risky. let's have a check of the headlines. carol massar has more from our first word desk. carol? carol: thanks so much. present obama will ask congress for money to fight the zika virus. -- president obama will ask congress for money to fight the zika virus. the virus is linked to birth defects. these security council has promised to retaliate against
north korea for ever bitten test -- a forbidden test of missile technology. that may happen in the next few days. german chancellor angela merkel says she is outraged at the a newsuffering caused by syrian offensive. it has forced thousands to flee to turkey. turkey should not have to bear the burden of refugees by itself. will not appear before a house to mcgregor committee wednesday to testify about a water crisis crippling the city of flint. he will unveil his budget proposal to the michigan legislature on the day. three house democrats invited rick snyder to appear before the democratic-only hearing and policy committee. 2016 seeming a little bit too much like 2008 for bill and
hillary clinton. the clintons are unhappy with her campaign. considered a similar action after barack obama's surprise when in iowa. the have compared ascendancy of bernie sanders to obama's campaign. day,l news 24 hours a powered by 2400 journalists in 150 news bureaus around the world. i'm carol massar. investor should not give up on equities, he says -- the founder of a global advisors group. tom, bring in the bowls. let's do this. why should we hang out in this market? risk normally moves west from china. markets were closed in china today. what is it the european and american markets were looking at? nothing, i think,
incremental to today. we have seen repricing. i think that there's a lot of leary nest about central bankers, and it does not feel for investors to be a moment to be buying stocks, but something to be retracing. i think we have a huge buyer strike and consumer concerns developing. joe: we have seen some havetment strategies that been taken to the woodshed lately. high pe stocks are getting destroyed. we see the nasdaq leaving is on the way down. if you like the market, do you go back into what was working, or are there new areas of the market people should be putting their money into? we wrote about this at the
end of last year. if you look at the really strong net momentum versus value, it was a 20-year extreme. i think this year, if you look at what would make classic value, you would have done a lot better in these beaten-down groups that actually outperformed this year. believe it or not, it's industrials that are outperforming. from low gains, right? tom: underperforming for several years. that's important to keep in mind. number one, manufacturers see something new. i think investors, as we get through this maelstrom, have to think about where are you going to get good relative value. the things that i point to as stocks yielding more dividend yield and many companies funding on their own bondage sites. sites.heir own bond forbiggest headwind
earnings in 2015 was the dollar. i might want to say it is the oil. the reason i think strategists and economists do not adjust for it is it is not explicitly disclosed. you have to go through the filing. it was close to $90 million last .ear basically the dollar is starting to flatten year-over-year. it's going to be less than $9 billion this quarter. let's stick with the dollar for a second. i want to pick out a word that you used a second ago. investors are leery of central bankers. were last year, we familiar with what central bankers were going to do. has the narrative changed? tom: i think central banks, their biggest toolkit is credibility. right?
i think investors are worried that the actual physical tools for central banks have run their limits. but the second thing i would say is, when you look at the fed and the u.s., there is a big difference between the way the fed is doing and troll -- doing monetary policy and what the markets are comfortable with. alix: your target for this year after the end of the year is 2325. tom: yes. alix: many strategists have cut their forecast. what gives you -- how? how you get there? and where would you be cutting? tom: let's give it this way. if we have a recession -- let's possibilities, but look at it is binomial outcomes. if there is a recession,
equities are not going to survive that. and down.ill if there is a growth scare, you have to think about how our durings going to react the nadir of a growth scare? 2200 is a perfectly reasonable if this is aieve growth story, because high-yield, for instance is an indicator. if oil prices stabilize, high-yield to date is a huge by, right? pro -- a huge buy, right? equities will follow the return and that would put you in the 2300-range. i think the key is -- the markets, the market is into probability. it is a weight of average outcome. the risk of recession rises are cutting numbers. we will either have a recession
or not. i'm comfortable with the notion this is a growth scare. joe: you talk about the fed and going into 2016, a lot of the view was the fed is tightening, europe is easing, or the ecb is easing, but that trade has not worked. the u.s. stocks have gotten clobbered this year. what went wrong with that basis? it looks like the ecb is not , likely to ease further in march, it does not look like the fed is that much closer to the market's expectations. why is your doing so much worse? one, you know there are central banks and their ability to create market movements, right? in 2014, central banks had a really discrete impact on currencies and the currency therefore, had some impact on
exportearnings and growth rate. the ecb was causing the euro to .eaken the last three policy actions by the ecb have resulted in the euro actually strengthening. so, i do think at the end of the day be dollar has been weakening , not only against the euro, but against the yen, and by the way, that is quite bullish for s&p earnings. it is one hand out of the other. alix: what is on your shopping list? rollwe see the leaders over so much, but it would probably take a lot of xanax to want to buy energy right now for example? tom: i think investors want to look stop by stock. there are so many stocks pricing in a recession. you can use multiples or you can use technicals like relative strength -- and i am talking a lot davidson, you know,
of retail, a lot of transports, even a lot of asset managers. so, what you have to say is, if there is a recession, how much downside? that is what is interesting. you have groups that have been taken to a wood chipper, not even a woodshed. laughs] tom: i don't think you have to go to energy to find these names. alix: he is so calm. brendan: i know. there is a big if you could drive a truck through right now. "if there is a growth scare." is it possible if financial conditions tighten through spreads widening, liquidity shrinking -- so i financial market event like this is a big
2.5%, right now, on the day. i went into the imac and i found one teeny, tiny -- into the imap and i found one teeny, tiny place -- the only thing holding up, the american consumer, a small silver lining going on right now. at the dow right now, a stone's throw from correction territory. we are off the lows of the session, down almost 2%. goldman sachs is a racing 66 points from the dow. not just that. you have home depot knocking off 40 points. it points to a more widespread -- joe: the real carnage is on the nasdaq. 7%, not pretty. that has been the story for a lot of these last sessions.
checked just getting clobbered. telekom down, like, 5% right now just getting clobbered. nothing good, all ugly. and again, we have that great jobs number on friday, great in the sense that really good numbers on wages and hours worked should've pointed to more strengthen the american consumer. joe: you would think so, but obviously there is this anxiety about a gap between what the fed is going to do them what the markets are expecting and this overall fear gripping everything in the world. the jobs report not doing the trick turning that around. they arelly, anything selling now. and speculation on whether the federal reserve good raise rates -- it was last week that the fed chair stanley fischer said negative rates had been more effective than he was expecting. countries that use it
continue to use it, have not given it up. we had a contractionary monetary policy raising the interest rate -65 -75 basis points to basis points, thereby raising the interest rate. it is working more than i can in 2012.ected i was not at the committee at that stage. coversur correspondent this for bloomberg knows and joins us now. he was not the only one who said, hey, this worked better than we thought. economist subset something similar -- economists have said something similar. reporter: exactly. they are saying negative rates could be an option. joe: one of the things that people say when you talk about the possibility of negative rates in the u.s. is structurally it might not work japan. as it does in
our markets are dependent on the money market, whereas in europe and japan it is more on banks. do you at the impression that that would be an impediment? alexandra: i'm not sure it is a aructural issue so much as risk issue. it is an important part of the economy. people are worried about messing up at all. in force negative rates are not enforced -- but you know what i mean -- if they stir it up, it's a really big problem. one of the things mario draghi has been doing the last few months is showing off his toolshed. we're sharpening and them up. we could use these any time. what does the fed need to do to make this a real policy option? alexandra: they are saying there is a lot of work to even figure
out how they would do it. i think it is so early -- everybody is talking about recession now because we are looking at what the markets are doing, but i think we do it -- we would have to cut rates to 0%, the fed would have to talk a lot more, and we would have to be in a recession before they would start thinking about it. rate cuts? oh, my god, what would happen question mark as we had to break action stocks.e bank of america, chesapeake, and williams company. ♪
we will be talking to aid derivatives strategist at him km km holdings. we have been trying to puzzle out what is going on with this latest the selloff friday into today. people seem really unsettled today. has anything changed? i'm not sure anything is changed, but there are metrics out there that have been of orcern for some time area -- for some time. we moved into elevated volatility last august. every major market corrections hasthe last five years occurred within an environment of elevated volatility. that is number one. number two, we thought we would come into a time following this shock on an intraday basis, that it would unwind and get down below 20, the vicks futures futures curve would
unwind, and frequent, that scares us and i think it scares investors and it should. what are people doing in the options market to position themselves? are people going to keep buying? jim: yes, we had clients come in and why relatively near dated protection, options that expire next week. maybe going out to march. yes, potential clients are looking at the market and putting additional rejection on -- additional protection on, and toclients do want to engage on the long side, we want to look at call spreads -- something where the risk is contained and you get the economic exposure of the upside, but really the risk being contained is critical for this environment. julie: that is happening on the macro and micro level, right?
one that you are looking at -- not just linkedin, but similar companies reporting this week and i guess your goal there, too, is to cap the risk? jim: right. if you look at these blindly, you could be paying upwards of 10% of your position in the stock. the fourth quarter was looking ok. user metrics are pretty poor as well. that got clobbered. the structure in this .nvironment is costless we want them to because list. we want to be out in march to capture earnings -- you are still in upside call. you are committing to sell the stock, you turn around and buy the downside put. you buy the put spread as well. ideally you want to pay very little for it. a little in your
pocket. you can create 20% upside over six weeks. you turn around and you have that put in place in the case of a linkedin, where the stock was down another 25% -- you have got that downside tail risk covered. julie: examples of this would cover what? twitter, pandora, i believe, reports this week? we included that in our note. twitter is one example where we want to sell at the 20 strike cost -- call. your: all right, limit risk. thank you so much. we will be back with more bloomberg markets special. ♪
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brendan. afternoon, andy carol massar has more from our news desk. carol: probably continuing to pose a threat to the united states, according to the , james klapper, threats from islamic state in iran, and by bloombergined news in advance of tuesday's delivery. new hampshire votes in the bill clinton could not hold back any longer, going after bernie sanders and supporters for attacking his wife. tomorrow, there will be a ofcial two-hour edition respect," and one
officer says the incident of a shooting onto 726 has cost in extreme emotional trauma and is seeking $10 million in damages. the 55 your grandmother, who police described as a bystander, was also shot to death. and the big game was the third most-watched super bowl ever, but it fell short of the more than 114 million who viewed last year's matchup and those that tuned in 2014. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. brendan, back to you. leaving the nasdaq is declines, and we go to abigail doolittle. : nonetheless, we are looking at a stock selloff, down
more than 2%, with the nasdaq less than 2% away from entering a potential bear market, not just the biotech sector, but another entered a bear market last december, and one index entered its third bear market from its peak in january on what appears to be valuation and momentum mentality. down today,gs facebook. shares are off significantly after news that the company will not be able to offer its site in india under the free basic plan the company had been pushing. but just hours ago, the eeo mark zuckerberg wrote in a facebook post that he is disappointed that india is restricting free access to the internet and that they will keep working until everyone has internet access. downso, the stock is year-to-date and tends to be heading towards critical
support. putting aside the relative strength of apple, that is up today, and big tech is down. facebook not alone, and it really seems to be coming undone. some of these names are down 30% here today. the top two stocks in the nasdaq last year, and the momentum is in reverse, perhaps on the december quarters, and amazon even after the selloff is trading at a 167% premium to the which is not, sustainable in this type of environment. much, abigailu so doolittle. we are seeing losses on the s&p, but we are also seeing a teeny tiny rally, off the lows of the session. a 4%ll, we are looking at drop in the s&p at one point, bankshares also dropping to the lowest level in 2013, so what is going on?
what is next for the markets? running of its jason, a director joining us from philadelphia. basically, anything you bought in 2015, that trade seems to be reversing now in 2016. how has your trading changed in the last weeks? jason: there are a number of things to take into account, alix, and thanks for having us on. those stocks that had the 40% plus rally last year year, that rally is fading and giving way to leadership in other areas, and that leadership so far this year is taking on a defensive sort of characteristic with things like consumer staples and utilities holding up the best, because the risk right now, at least with the markets are trying to figure out, the risk economically and profit wise is a little bit larger on the downside right now just because of the environment we are going through. we have a chinese difficult situation. we have oil and energy in a
difficult situation, and we are still facing the effects of previous dollar strength. making his way through the economy and through economic and profit measures, and that is causing some turbulence in the market. you know, i think our base case is still that we are in an expansion mode, but it is hard not to recognize that the risks have gone up a little bit here of a bigger downside phenomenon. jason, you mentioned some of the risks that the market is pricing in. obviously, china was very prominent. team,s been a constant but something we have seen recently, especially the last week and a half, is growing anxiety about the banks, and they are seeing selloff in parts of the debt structure, equity selloff. can markets overall rally if the banks are still so -- if the financial markets are still so nervous?
jason: right. we identified three primary of possible contagion, and one of those was in the banking system. our preferred way of looking at this was the indexes, and there are some central ones and some someean central banks and in china. when you look at those, even though the yields and some of the measures are capping out, they are finding it harder to are up. you are finding the interbank thoseg in a lot of measures that really constitute financial stress. they are not picking up, meaning a lot of investors are still not finding a hard time or not being unwilling to lend between one another in the banking system, so we are not seeing the breakouts that we saw as much as in 2011. definitely not the 2008 to 2009 timeframe, but at least a modest impact on that. to keepit is something
an eye on. you can get daily and weekly measures of them. they are good to keep an i on. what we do not want to see is to see that stress breakdown the banking system if things come to a halt. our base case is really at this point in time still in tact. watchingason, we were the no job as two months ago, and there were the 28,000 new manufacturing jobs, but you're actually more worried about these services. what are watching? jason: i think the important thing is that in the u.s., the service portion is 80% of the u.s. economy. now, it is a smaller portion of u.s. -- of global stocks. but 80% of the u.s. economy is services. resilient up very until now, and if you look at past downturns in manufacturing, the two that ended up in recessionary territory were situations where the services sector got brought down
alongside the manufacturing. got a hint to that. we saw the services index fund down a notch, down below where it was before, still in the 50's, still meaning expansion territory, but the weakness there signifies this idea that there is a little bit of a flow over from the manufacturing sector into the services are, and that is something to really keep a close eye on. it also seems that, one, sovereign wealth funds, the mate so much money from oil, are actually selling their assets, as well as those selling assets from their fx reserves, leading to a tightening of the community in the market. what role do you think these factors are playing in the selloff? jason: i think they are playing a little bit of a reinforcing role. selling off the assets come you're basically selling currencies that are already seeing some weakness relative to the dollar, so that is reinforcing the cycle.
we think it is more of a near term phenomenon. but it is deftly placing some pressure on the fx markets. of -- one ofrms the questions is the fed and that there is still this huge gap between where the fed has indicated it is going to go or what it wants to do and what the market is sort of expecting. do you expect -- how do you expect -- do you expect the fed to capitulate to the market on this view, and how do you think the fed will do that? jason: absolutely. we think the fed is going to capitulate. four rate hikes this year and four rate hikes next year and basically having a 2% increase in short-term interest rates is ludicrous given the economic environment we are sitting in. they need to have a measured pass. in reality, licking legations were more if the economy turns out as good as we expect, this
is what we are going to do, and what is coming out is that the economy is nowhere near as good as they expect. it is a lot slower, so they will probably follow a path that is a lot slower than the indicators that people took at face value. i think the market now has a zero probability or a less than 50% probability of having just one rate hike this year, and therefore, the head will probably come closer. i think it will probably still hold onto the idea that they will increase rates at some point this year, but we will see how the data turns out and whether they do that. anchor: so do i hear correctly in your answer that you do not hear the rumor of a potential of a negative rate policy by the u.s. spent seriously? jason: look, i don't know that that is necessarily in the cards right now. stillre probably angling towards having an increase. i do not think we should discount that the fed would at some point in time if the eggs get bad enough -- if, right,
that they would consider a policy like that. some central banks are already exposing themselves and going that direction. the swiss central bank has gone there. cb has gone there. japan has just recently gone there. i do not think we are nearly in the same circumstances do need to do that. i was suspect that the fed would keep away from that, but that should not be discounted as a policy they cannot use. in fact, it should be very likely that they could use it at some point time in the future if they so need it. good stuff. thank you, jason pride, a director of strategy. you seem very calm. far will oil fall? after oil went to $30 a barrel again, we have a guest from an oil consulting firm. what larryly after summers discussed, i think we will see lower prices well into
anchor: this is a special edition of bloomberg markets. i am brendan greeley in for betty liu. watching this, and we are at exactly 2% on the s&p 500 right now, on the day, the dow jones down 191, and the nasdaq is where the real carnage is, still not yet at 2%, looking a lot better than it did around 2:00 today when we decided to do a special. we are just going to do the bloomberg business flash instead, a look at some of the biggest stories in business news right now.
wanting the ceo of the aol unit to explore a possible bid for yahoo!, that according to someone with knowledge of the situation who also says the largest u.s. phone carrier has not hired anchors to conduct an offer, and there have been no formal talks. yahoo! is looking to make their video streaming service an area of profit, and it is a potential asset. facebook is not letting a temporary setback in india affected. the telecom regulator ruled to restrict programs that provide free access to data. facebook has been pushing for a limited internet plan to get more indians online. on the of google is verge of becoming one of the highest-paid executives of a publicly traded company. is restricted stock valued at around $199 million. the shares will vest between now and 2019. your business
update. let's go to the bloomberg deep dive. alix, show me how it is done. wex: i want to show you what have been looking at, and before that, you were charting the s&p versus its 200-week moving average. this chart came to me from joe earlier in the day, and the idea is we are literally approaching that level, and the last time we broke below that, we saw a 50% decline before we were able to recover, meaning we have reached many particular technical levels that have done some severe damage. if we are not able to hold this level, the question is, are we looking at another 50% of retracement? we were below it, but it was still able to climb and rally. basically, it says the 2008 scenario, we cannot exclude that possibility. yes, and 1812 was a big
one, but analysts are looking at 1500 where you find some real and true support. anchor: i love watching this process of how far back you take your technical analysis. the market has been done a day, you take your technical analysis back a month, but it is down longer, you go back further, and that is when it gets scarier. some indicators that should have been able to tell us about 2008 to tell us if there was something to learn. anchor: it is always scary when they go to history like that. and going to the eco-data to get what are you looking at, brendan? jobs data, had the and we chewed it over, and there is one from the kansas city fed and one from the federal reserve. they are measuring the same thing, and you can see they track each other for the closely, and these are two deauville indexes. wast yellen announced she
not just looking at the top line unemployment rate. things looking at how were for jobs, and attract a whole bunch of different saying, u6, and what you have with the kansas city fed is it is looking at a lot more business data and consumer survey data. you get a slightly richer picture, and i was trying to see the difference, and when i was looking at it, the federal reserve labor market conditions index, that is in the yellow. it leads the kansas city index, right, so whatever the difference is between the 22 of them, and believe me, i spent about two hours today looking at the difference, so what is the federal reserve index doing right now? it is starting to dip down with the newest data, so that has me a little worried also. and then going back to the technical analysis that looks at 2008 and whether we should be worried. joe: i want to look at a chart. this is the deutsche bank
contingent capital, so the idea behind this bond is as the situation were to deteriorate, the banks, rather than a bank cap into default, these on holders would get turned into equity, and that would give deutsche bank greater equity, and the idea is this kind of financing helps cushion the blow, kind of created after the financial crisis, basically opportunity, you know, for them to help deutsche bank on its own. well, look at the yield on this bond. a few weeks ago, it was yielding around 8%, surging up to 12.4% today, as they worry that deutsche bank bosses will force that conversion to happen. this afternoon, deutsche bank came out with a statement saying it has the hunting to cover the payments on these bonds for this year and next year, so theoretically, people do not have to worry, but if you want to see the bank concern,
particularly in europe, these are the ones to be watching. brendan: one of the things about you too botts, it allows go to the regulators and say something and then to go to the investors and say something. joe: they were asking investors why they bought it, and they said for the yield. but now, it is not for the yield, obviously, that you could get converted to equity sooner. turns out you get paid for taking on risk. coming up next on this bloomberg markets special report, the close of trading is coming up, and the dow has been making a big comeback, and that is what we see across the indexes, so, asin, the carnage not as bad it looked at noon. the bloomberg markets special report. ♪
steel and joe weisenthal. julie, what is going on? julie: indeed, we are off the lows of the session for all of the three, as they come in and buy after all of these selling, so if you take a look at the s&p over the course of the day, you can see what has happened a little more clearly, that we are now being this late-day increase in stocks heading into the last of and minutes or so of trading. that said, we have seen some market internals that are causing some can third among investors today, and one of and we talkedvix, about that in the options inside, and we saw the big spike in september, but now we have returned to this sort of elevated period of volatility, sort of a new regime where the average has been closer to 25, say, over the past month or so that it had over not just the past months but years. another measure i am looking at is the advanced decline line of
the new york stock exchange. you see the chart. it goes up over the past year, and you see that we have seen a diminishing number of advancing stocks, particularly when you get into january, a number that exceeds even looking at the selloff last august and september. also, i have an watching a measure of volume among the groups in the s&p 500, and we have seen elevated volume versus the 20-day average, a big surge in volume among energy shares, and others.ples, and oil prices continuing to trend lower although holding above 30 dollars a barrel, at least for now, and gold as we have talked about is one of the standouts, one of the places people are putting their money, and another is the 10-year note. the is now at 1.74%, and dollar was also selling off, catching a little bit of a bid
but then turned lower. that is the dollar versus a basket of currencies. guys? anchor: the indexes paring their losses, and we will bring in joe. danny. joe, let's start with you. it looks like high valuations got punished today. yes, the price-to-earnings ratios really taking it on the chin. you're also seeing the valuations with banks and the other sectors that might be considered risk on. we are actually seeing some convergence in the strategist forecasts, and if you were to look at how many people trimmed of 21.orecast, seven out they moved the overall average of where they think the s&p is going to be down, and this is the first time since the iraq war in 2003. anchor: danny, people are someng about rotations, getting crushed, some doing
better. what are the areas that people are hopeful would lead the market higher? see thosef times we defensive sectors really taking off. bestve telecom doing its against the s&p since the recession, 2008, so that might ing people. echo: all right, thank you both. we would have more time for the two of you, but it is hard for the control room to get me to stop talking. , and the dowatest jones is now down 187 points, the s&p down 1.4%. ♪
special report. we are moments away from the closing bell. i am joe weisenburger. alix: and i am alix steel. scarlet fu is off today. over 300 points, stocks coming back into the close. the nasdaq off now by 1.8%, at one point also down by 3%, but we did see some kind of recovery, but nonetheless, it was a very moving day for stocks, goldman sachs one of the biggest hit, its lowest level since 2014 come the financial stocks within the s&p. can absolutely, and someone look at that selloff and say that was a really ugly day, but compared to where we were around 2:00he day, p.m. in the afternoon, it was much worse than the dow selloff, and even the nasdaq, nowhere near as bad as it was. still