tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg February 8, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm EST
special report. we are moments away from the closing bell. i am joe weisenburger. alix: and i am alix steel. scarlet fu is off today. over 300 points, stocks coming back into the close. the nasdaq off now by 1.8%, at one point also down by 3%, but we did see some kind of recovery, but nonetheless, it was a very moving day for stocks, goldman sachs one of the biggest hit, its lowest level since 2014 come the financial stocks within the s&p. can absolutely, and someone look at that selloff and say that was a really ugly day, but compared to where we were around 2:00he day, p.m. in the afternoon, it was much worse than the dow selloff, and even the nasdaq, nowhere near as bad as it was.
still though, no basically sea of red. new 52-weekake lows, and only one nasdaq 100 stock is up 10% this year. it speaks to how widespread the selloff has been over the past seven to eight weeks. joe: absolutely, and when will be go into a bear market? for a lot of markets, this the like a bear market even if the headlights have not really reached people's technical definition of it. the nasdaq down about 14.5% this year, the s&p down overnight percent this year, and overall, we are very close to correction territory for the s&p. joe: right. and so up is quite dramatic even if we are technically not there. and about currencies and treasuries, what happened there? joe: it is all over the place.
the 10-year bond, the lowest in a long time. i remember last year when hsbc came out with their called it said the 10-year was going to go to one, and that seemed like a really outlier call, and here we have this today. what about the currencies? i feel it was really about the dollar. joe: of the dollar is seen as a safe haven currency, and the yen was rising to its high level of the year, 115.7 against the dollar, and this comes one week after the boj goes into negative territory, and they still have not been able to depress the is doing so strong in the face of negative rates. look at the take a safe haven? gold, topping this amount for the first time this year, off the level now, 1190, but
nonetheless, hitting that 1200 level, and frank at global investment talked about how we could see a rally and then a selloff. it would not be unusual to see a $150 move either to the upside or the downside, and we have had a lot of buying into the china lunar new year. doing one of those things that it has done really well this year. i also want to point out oil, at one point below $30 a barrel, and it was not really the driver of markets today, but nonetheless, oil continues to hurt, and those are today's market minutes, and now, we want to take a deep thy into bloomberg and see what stood out today, and i will kick it off with energy. it was ae energy, really ugly day. it has been a really bad year. right there is
chesapeake, maturing in august 2017. take a look at this drop-off, and the green line is chesapeake equities. what happened today is you had some rumors coming out the potentially they were talking to lawyers about structuring and that a bankrupt the could be in the cards. they came out and said no, we are not looking into bankruptcy. the stock recovered a little bit, but that does not do anything to the fact that they have 500 million dollars in bonds maturing in march, and the market is very scared and there is skittish, and i have to tell you, joe, this makes me scared. iny pioneered the revolution the united states, the ceo's, they no longer have their jobs, and they are in trouble of saying alive. they are the ones he made the revolution happen, and now they are the ones suffering just as much. and you wonder if our financial market is finally going to squeeze out some players, and we are seeing what looks like an endgame.
we are obviously seeing some dramatic moments for some of these big players. can still produce natural gas. it is not like all of a sudden, goodbye. joe: some anxiety today obviously about financials, in looking at credit default swaps on banks, this is a very busy page, but if you look in this area right here, what you see is of where the credit default swaps are pricing, and the blue dot on the right side is each line for these areas ones. it shows that credit default swaps basically across the board are at their highest level in the last year for all of these banks, and this line shows the range. bank basicallyy is trading with credit default swaps at their highest level of the year. it is not crazy financial crisis levels or anything like that, the rising show
anxiety across the financial sector, and i think that was one of the things in shooting to overall market nervousness and the selloff that we saw today. we have some breaking news for you, 21st century fox coming out earnings per share at $.44, kind of in line with estimates. in terms of revenue, it looks a little bit light, coming in at 7.3 of billion dollars, and the estimate was for $7.5 billion, and breaking out different areas, entertainment still about 2.3 billion dollars in revenue, tv about $1.7 billion in revenue, table network programming about 3.7% there, so we are still getting these numbers. we are not seeing a lot of movement. it does not look like it is trading currently in after hours, but it looks like the estimates in the bottom line and topline a little bit of a mess. there are, of course, worries about advertising revenue, and driving customers to streaming, as well. joe: it is interesting to see
what they say on the call, because that is a source of anxiety. alix: a global chief investment strategist joins us on this crazy day from san francisco. attributeat do you today's selloff to? >> i think there are a couple of things going on. first of all, as he spoke about, there is more anxiety about the financial sector. this is relatively new development focused mainly on european banks, but beyond that, i think there are a few things that have been driving markets lower. ofst of all, last week, most the economic data in the soft side. it is raising concerns about the , andh of the u.s. economy secondly, we have had an environment these past few weeks where you have seen more effort by some of the world central banks and japan and europe to morer consider or a doctor
unconventional monetary policy, and so far, that is not having the intended effect. investors are nervous about what happens in a world where central banks might be out of blitz. and we have been looking for the bond bubble to burst for years, and it looks like the law and bearers can go back home right now, because that is exactly what is keeping them propped back up. russ: the sovereign bond markets with negative yields, about 25% of sovereign bond markets with negative yields. it was not supposed to happen. you were not supposed to pay a government for the privilege to lend to them, so they plunge into areas we did not even think were possible. yieldow that the negative taboo has been broken by all of these banks, the bank of japan, ecb, elsewhere, where we see
them going into negative territory, as that chart just showed, we see market starting to price in a small but a nonzero probability of the fed at some point going negative. do you think that is possible in the u.s.? : well, anything is possible, and it would be silly to write off the possibility. in the u.s., we still have an economy that is creating a reasonable number of jobs. measures,flationary clearly, if we see further slippage and the global economy, if we see some further decline or deceleration in the u.s. economy, the fed will have to consider a host of things. we look at has to be the yield curve, and currently, we flattened a bit, but we are not inverted. what is your expectation for that? : it is reflecting the
slowdown of gdp in the world, but we spoke about the bond markets in japan and the bond markets in europe. u.s. yields at 175 or 180 are low, much lower than any of us thought at this point, but when you compare it to the german bonds or the japanese 10-year government bond yields, suddenly, 170, 175 starts to look generous, and i think as we saw last year, the global bond exerting downward pressure on the long end of the u.s. yield curve. joe: so how low could the u.s. yields go? i remember last year, almost every analyst. b yields would go higher, like they do almost every year, but how much further could we see on the 10-year? : january, that was probably an environment where you did not have the same level of global eggs ids that you have today, so i think there are two of things going on. five yields are going to be
under pressure until we see some sort of stabilization and global growth or some reduction in financial market volatility. right now, we are seeing neither. russ, bank of america says they have kept the short and artificially low at the fed and that if you use the overnight index swaps, you can sort out those disruptions, and actually, the yield curve is inverted. do you think they factor something that dramatic in right now? curve goes torted some of a broader question, what is the probability of a u.s. recession, and, of course, people have looked at the yield past.in the a balance sheet of $4.5 trillion, and we have got negative yields in much of the rest of the world, the shape of the u.s. yield curve may not be as strong of a leading indicator that it has been in past cycles. stuff,russ, of blackrock. coming up, what does the massive
congress for emergency funding to fight the zika virus. he says the money is needed for askew no control, vaccine development, and other items. -- for mosquito control, vaccine developed, and other items. james clapper has prepared testimony that notes potential threats from islamic state and iran. his testimony to a congressional committee was obtained by bloomberg news in advance of tuesday's delivery. people watched the denver broncos victory last night on the third most-watched super bowl ever. last year's game between the teams that went down to the wire was the most-watched ever. the 2012 game was the second most-watched. alix: what did you miss?
a major crisis of confidence, with deutsche bank, some worry they will not be able to pay next year. off a cliff since late december was little sign of ending their free fall, and the head of macro strategy at one group joins us now. joe: peter, thanks for joining us. you have been writing a lot about european bank credit. worried that deutsche bank will not be able to make a payment on these coco bonds, and what would be the trigger to convert them to equity? peter: this is much like preferred equity. the ecb is being supportive. we just went through all of these currencies and countries that are now in negative yield, so something with a 7.5% coupon looks attractive, and now it is starting to happen that there are a couple of things that can happen. first, they do count as tier one capital for the eggs, so they
are equity capital for the banks -- they are to your one capital for the banks. shutting the coupon office not a default. that can be done. and i think this is overdone, but it is a real risk. alix: could this click over? would turnt, they off the coupon. then, they can be converted to equity, which is white deutsche bank is in the headlines because they are having their equity values stripped away. as the equity price declines, it pushes it closer and closer to the event, and so they become very liquid. now people are reaching up and doing two of things. first, they are by credit
protection, and that is why we are seeing every bank wide, and then we go to a concern. contagion. can it lead to lehman and to morgan stanley? a littlesudden, it is bit of a risk that people are talking about, and that is why we saw so much pressure. joe: obviously we know conventionally, they have the inclination to further ease. is there anything we can do to reduce some of this stress? the one nice thing about this is the ecb and their mandate really gives them a lot of flexibility. they have difficulties doing much with sovereign debt. i think they need to do two things. one, they have to help all of these small banks that you and i never heard of, like a portuguese bank who got into trouble. they have to support the little bags we have never heard of, and then they have to support the senior unsecured debt. they have to do everything they can to support senior,
unsecured, and above, the depositors, because that is going to be key to europe's growth. if these banks after pullback on lending because they cannot borrow, europe's growth is going to slow quickly, and i think the ecb will step in, and maybe we go back to an ltro. looking at sort of the big, broad scheme, now it seems to be settled more in europe, as we mentioned with the credit default swaps, and is this where the next leg of the crisis is going to live? peter: i think this will be easier to address because i think the ecb can step in. these are regulated banks. we need a stress test that looks pretty harsh to us. i think this reality just has to o's werey that coc designed to do this, convert to equity. they just not want to see that happening, so they are reaching out and doing what they can't,
so that is causing bank stress. we are looking for the opportunity hopefully later this week when the ecb comes in and will fix this problem, and i think that solves the issue unless banks globally rally. joe: that being said, we are seeing banks sell off everywhere, including in the sachs,quity, goldman morgan stanley, others really getting slammed. but people cannot identify a reason. it is not like in 2012 when there was a link between banks and sovereign credit or with housing. it feels more that people are just getting really negative on the business model of banks, period, and not out of anything specific. peter: to me, it is about velocity. it is that they lend and someone buys that house, they get fees, and someone comes in and does another transaction, and it is about the velocity of money, and we are seeing that shrink. bank credit is actually getting
safer and safer, because i think banks as an investment are more difficult because they become ane and more -- that is not exciting business. you are losing out on the sales and trading side. you are losing out on the mortgage side. i do not know what comes next. joe: it is not like exposure. it is just that this business model is not that good. joe courtney yes, people got excited, and some people are going to make much more, and they need growth in the economy. well, it is not a fun business to be involved in, and i think we are seeing a proper pullback in terms of valuation. repricing ish more left? peter: the one thing that has creeped and is a little too much concern about lending. banks all have massive balance sheets. i think that is a much more -- specific.fic what i would look to is if the ecb tries to fix something, i
would use that as a signal to come in and by u.s. banks. joe: at and with the ecb, you expect we will get some sort of hint in the coming days? peter: yes, i would expect some but in the coming days, deutsche bank is becoming unable to borrow to fulfill their lending obligations. there is no meeting, so it will come through some leak of the press that we get. whomever, when we went through the financial crisis, he got a lot of things at 2:00 p.m. or 4:00 p.m. that word leaked that turned out to be correct, so i would expect that we would see that same type of activity when they prop up the market over there. alix: peter, thank you. coming up, distilled the manned and a u.s. recession. you do not want to miss this. i promise. ♪
♪ a bloombergs markets special report. i am alix steel. what did you miss? can say about a u.s. recession, and gold at its highest level since june. joe, i have really been looking at distal it's. if you look at demand in january, it is down about 18% year on year, and the scale of that decline has not been seen unless you're in a recent russian. that came to us from barclays. it is fuel used for cars. you can use it for rail, for freight.
why is it down so much? we had a warmer january, so we are not using as much to heat someomes, and we have had more build out, and that is hurting demand for fuel, as well. but nonetheless, the fact that we are not using as much, and you only see that kind of decline is something to highlight. joe: i feel that there are a lot of charts these days that we only see if we are in a recession, particularly commodity or industrial charts like that, so to make the argument that we are not in a one russian or going into requires a this is different this time in some way. we definitely see a lot of those charts. and it is different. it is hot. joe: ok, gold at its highest level since june.
it hit $1200 an ounce at one point. it is off to a good start. there is the idea that the fed is perhaps going to ease further, the idea obviously helping gold. plus, concerns about the global economy, so you have this kind of safe haven, buying something shiny in solid that cannot be shaved away at a negative rate, so it is jumping, and not only is the jumping and hit 1200, it surpassed its levels earlier that is sought late in the autumn, and you can see that chart with the declining highs, so the idea that gold went above has some people talking about is this a breakout, and i do not know. i am not a technical analysis person, but people are getting excited about gold in a way they have not ian -- have not been in a while. alix: but i do not get that correlation. joe: who knows? alix: coming up next, emerging
carol: this is a bloomberg special report. says he's nota surprise north korea launched a rocket this weekend. he said that the u.s. and south korea are now discussing their options. the united nations security council is likely to come out with more economic sanctions this week. authorities say a chartered bus that crashed on interstate 95 in connecticut during a stor snowstorm was on its way to new york city. at least 30 were hurt, more than 60 on board at the time of the crash. one day before the nations first primary, donald trump continues to dominate in new hampshire.
trump leads the field with 36%, according to the latest poll. he's followed by florida senator marco rubio and ted cruz. /lowell poll has cruz and rubio tied for second place. tomorrow, there will be a special, two-hour edition of "with all due respect." the new york next head coach will be replaced by an interim head coach. day,l news, 24 hours a powered by 2400 journalists in 150 news bureaus around the world. a quick recap on how markets closed -- an unbelievable day. at one point, you had the nasdaq off by almost 3%, but into the close, stocks contributed to a
rally. the s&p only off 26 points the, dow only off 177, but it is nonetheless nearing a bear market. 30% of the nasdaq 100 is down over 20% for the. joe: the nasdaq is off to an awful start in february, but never do i recall a day where 1.8% on the nasdaq seemed like such a victory. ugly day, but it could have been much worse. alix: yeah. the s&p today declined with about 3.3%, but friday with no pickings either. it was really the bankshares that led the way, at their lowest level since 2013. joe: very grim on the financials across europe and the u.s.. alix: absolutely. ms"what'd you miss?" our next guest to seeing pockets of opportunity, paul mcnamara. joe: paul, thanks for joining
us. it has been a pretty ugly start to the year, that one thing that might surprise people is the fact that the brazilian real, which got absolutely demolished, is up on the year. it's gained almost 2% against the dollar. is the bottom end in brazil? are we missing a potential turnaround will focusing on the negative? >> we like to think so. they get a lot of help, with the fact that they closed today for carnivale. it's been a rough day. brazil is the poster child for the unnoticed correction in emerging markets. if you look at their trade numbers, they just reported the best monthly trade numbers since records began. that's not through any sort of export recovery. are stilly prices well down and not showing signs of turning around. but their imports have followed
even further. they've adjusted, they're living within their means. but across emerging markets, we have seen two years of slowing credit growth, two years of a reduction in demand generally, and that's bearing fruit now with much lower import numbers. even though exports are down on the commodity crash in china, reports are down even more, and we have seen a sharp turnaround in emerging market-rate balances now. that's if not ready to call the we can at least point to something where we have seen real progress. alix: can i ask a dumb question? does it less important mean weaker demand, and isn't that about sign? >> well, what we have see -- whenever we have seen crises in the past, even going back to mexico in 1994, all the crashes we have seen, generally most of the adjustment comes on the
import side first. so that you get a bit of export growth, but quite often it's all on the import side. you don't get an awful lot of boost out of export. and if you look at europe, spain, italy, greece, most of the balance adjustment comes from imports. it's never a painless recovery and suddenly your exports are off to the races. but in practice, imports do the work. when a country has to adjust to a new global environment, it's usually by consuming less in terms of foreign goods. next?alixand then what happens we see that the imports have collapsed, the balance of payments looking better, maybe it turned around, but then what is the next stage? was fueled the demand growth? twoell, there are possibilities from the point of
view of an optimist like myself. one is that the simple fact of balance payments adjustments plus high interest rates -- up 60% in brazil, for example, double digits in indonesia and so on -- no longer needing to pull in capital to pay for imports. of course, for currencies to stabilize and people start looking for the kerry. -- for the carry. i think the credit cycle looks do the bottom out around the second half of next year. once credit starts to pick up again, the banking sector will start contributing to growth. then we can see slightly were positive developments. if you're desperately looking for positive sign, i think the fact that emerging equity markets in general outperform the developed markets today. i think that is at least destroyed the idea that things are moving. so how do you want of
investing, if you see the bottoming out? how would you do that with brazil, for example? view, weur point of are fixed income investors, so it is the bonds we are looking to buy. are broadly, the technicals probably stronger than the fundamentals. everybody knows that china is due. everybody knows that commodity prices will go down forever. if you look how investors are positioned globally, there is a very strong, single-story. long the u.s., long the dollar, and short anything to do with china. at the moment, the first place to look is what are people short? from a short-term boost going to view. in the longer-term, we look at adjustment stores like rizz bral or indonesia. places like mexico or india i
think spring to mind. joe: i wanted to get your take on russia. that is one country where the markets haven't shown a turnaround, ruvell having another miserable year, down 6% against the dollar. do you see any signs of an adjustment there or is this purely at the mercy of what oil prices do? >> oil has been the worst performing commodity and there have been some which have been incredibly tightly tied to commodities. the oil price and the russian ruble move lockstep, and they have those problems of corruption. once the oil revenues go, the government has very little to offer the population at large. pension cuts, spending cuts. at the margin, we are becoming more concerned about the politics, and of course sanctions make it much more difficult for russia to access foreign capital markets.
unless you have a very strong negative view on the oil price, you probably want to start now.ing short in ruvelruble joe: paul, i want to go back to brazil. one of the concerns about the economy is the radical fallout from the zika virus -- the theoretical fallout from the zika virus, dangerous for women to get pregnant. you have the following emerging markets for a long time, and they are frugally characterized by these idiosyncratic risks. have you tried a model that, or think about a risk like that when you think about a country? >> i think i will have to break with tradition of talking heads on financial news. i really don't have a notion about the zika virus. the people who are claiming to model it are really pulling it out of their ear. there are a lot of things going on that we don't know about, that we can't model. we don't know the strategic situation in syria or how that will impact oil exports.
emerging markets, i don't know if they are much more prone to unknown standards than the developed world. i think just because they are more volatile, we see more swinging around from things like the zika virus or sars or anything like that. but for most investors, the honest thing is to admit they don't know and try to find someone who does. joe: [laughter] alix: fairpoint. thank you very much. paul mcnamara, staying up late for us in london. after today's turbulent action, one can't help but ponder -- is the u.s. recession bound? we will weigh the risks. ♪
bloomberg business flash, where we look at the biggest business stories in the news. postedntury fox second-quarter that met analyst estimates, coming as the cable and broadcast television business encounter lower revenue from film and entertainment. profit, excluding some items, fell to $.44 per share, the revenue missed estimates. earlier this month, the media giant said it would cut costs with staff in the u.s. and a voluntary buyback program. an error cost the early release of their fourth-quarter earnings. to $154creased 40% million in the quarter, compared with the year earlier. prophets also beat estimates. results have been scheduled to be reported after the close of trading. they also announced today that the cfo will leave in the coming months. the search for his replacement is already underway. and president obama wants
congress to double funding for regulators policing wall street. by 2021, the budget for the securities exchange commission will be twice the 2016 level. the price of thinking -- the president is seeking $1.8 billion, and 32% increase for the cftc. the budget goes to congress tomorrow. and that is your bloomberg business flash. "what'd you miss?" is the u.s. recession looming? making the case against a recession and a new note, pointing out a few key indicators, one of which is the fed index showing economic weakness on a state-by-state index. right now there are only seven states and the recession, namely energy intensive regions. the chief economist at credit suisse joins us with more. can you walk us through that math? >> i'd lucky through texas. north dakota, a few places with higher energy consumption.
it's really the places where you have higher energy sector exposure. alix: north dakota and wyoming, basically? >> yeah. we don't have brought economic weakness in the united states at all. mining sector, railroad sector, energy sector weakness. modest weakness in manufacturing, but even manufacturing is not contracting. joe: i know a lot of people have been comparing this to 1980 oil crash. we saw similar regional weakness in the economy, but overall it didn't go into a recession. does that look like a proper parallel to you? >>. it does that was in 1986, when oil prices fell sharply. we had a regional recession that rolled through the economy for a few years, and we did have some losses in the banking system related to that. it's a real event, but it wasn't sufficient to cause a whole economy to start to crawl. alix: so at the far left hand
corner, that little bit is what happened. the statesight. and that fell were precisely the energy centric states,, oklahoma texas. joe: what would you need to see to change your mind? is their data that would say -- >> well, the labor market is slightly lagging indicator, but really, to get into recession, you need all sectors to get a little bit more risk-averse. people pull back on investment across the board. that's really not what we are seeing. th numbers out on friday look pretty goode, with some very strong income. alix: deutsche bank continues to have the is due to, and if it doesn't pick up, the companies will have to -- what do you think about that? >> it's hard to really call it weak demand, with consumption so
high. we have strong consumption growth. business investment is a mixed picture, but construction is growing strongly. i think there are some longer-term drags on productivity that matter more. i went have exactly that few. but i think the issue right now is with risk aversion on the ride, and with concentrated stress and energy, will this create real issues, clog up our credit system, and spook people to the point that they cut back on hiring investment when they should not. joe: one common argument is that, historically, recessions are caused by the fed. ultimately, the fed tightens to the point that it slows the economy. int -- how much further can the fed tighten without that happening again? >> well, the market has voted and decided they will be typing for some time. i really agree with the market at this point, but i don't know
-- joe: do you mean that the fed will hike more, or that they can? >> i think they will hike in 2016. alix: how many times? >> up to three times. that is a second-half recovery. the unemployment rate just fell below 5%. core inflation is drifting higher. wages are accelerating. it's early february. we are in a risk appetite panic. it's important not to extrapolate this. but the recession may be rising nicely for 2017, but by then we could have a much lower unemployment rate, faster wage growth, and it could get to the point where the fed needs to hike, even if global growth stays fragile. credit is a long-lived indicator for what happens. just because credit is seizing up now doesn't mean will instantly go into recession. they could be a year from now. the stressing credit markets
by 10% gain in part revenue. a 12% increase in tv network revenue, led by espn. disney generates the most affiliate revenue among its peers. 2014, thegoes back to last full data we have from the industry. disney reported over $12 billion in fees for 2015. these numbers are under threat due to streaming, on bundling, and skinny packages.disney is dealing with a drop in subscribers. the losses seen here are from select networks, just a few, and just from last june to december. espn a staggering, the latest numbers just 92 million subscribers, the lowest since 2006. as consumers view more media online, you can really see a shift in advertising money. thinks online
will upstage tv for the first time this year. you can see that growth change over the next few years. disney is a very diversified media company, and it has before summit side. star wars: the force awakens has made $2 billion globally, a little under $1 million in the u.s.. that is in less than two months in theaters, and this is just the box office numbers. disney has another potential big hit in "captain america: civil war." might help the themepark -- you will want to go on the ride. park revenue has rebounded quite well since the last recession, and we will be watching all parts of this business come out tuesday, after the close of u.s. trading. for more, i want to bring in paul sweeney.
will you look at in tomorrow's report? >> the market is really going to look at the cable network business. you mentioned the last quarter they lost a few million subscribers that espn, and that brought down the profitability outlook. they had to reduce their guidance, and that really shook the market. that set off the media meltdown. the media stocks just really haven't recovered. there's this real concern about the cable network business, which has historically been the best business i the media ecosystem, and now it is under threat. is this what they will have to worry about tomorrow, or over a long period? joe: what is your guess? what are you seeing from espn? >> we think it will be a longer we're seeing, we think this'll be a longer-term play. last week, we had the cable company report. they added video subscribers in
the fourth quarter. they have some of the best result in eight or nine years. this issue is absolutely a reality, we just think it is a slower term play as more consumers shift their behavior to outside the big bundle to more internet-based delivery platforms. alix: does that mean disney will have to raise fees for espn to offset their loss? >> that is definitely one of the concerns. historically they have had very strong pricing power, and it's generally predicated on the fact that they have the best sports program of every major sport locked up for many years to come. they're in a great position right now, and there is some competition out there. murdoch has really stepped up his game, cbs and nbc have started sports cable networks. there's more competition that espn has really protected their turf. alix: good stuff. we will be watching those tomorrow.
alix: business bloomberg markets special report. joe: don't miss this tomorrow. small business optimism tomorrow, one of my favorite surveys. they asked small business is a bunch of questions -- labor market, credit availability. great insight into the economy. alix: coca-cola reporting earnings at the bell. there were six fewer selling days last quarter. so definitely look out for that. and see what is going on with the fx impact. joe: and jolt, tomorrow at 10:00 a.m.
mark: i'm mark halperin. john: and i'm john heilemann. and with all due respect to marco rubio, and with all due respect marco rubio, and with all due respect to marco rubio -- happy super bowl commercial rewatch day, sports fans. we're sticking as close as possible to the bar. we're at the downtown radisson. the candidates are all trundling through the slushy state, making their closing argument before midnight, when the first have sure ballots will be cast.