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tv   Countdown  Bloomberg  February 10, 2016 1:00am-2:31am EST

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anna: the aggressive selling continues in japan, as the yen markets higher. testifieset yellen before congress, as the rate hike is called into question by world wind of volatility. anna: europe's biggest investment bank is considering to buy back investor bonds. manus: and the u.s. election gets more complicated, as the establishment loses in new hampshire. ♪
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welcome to countdown. anna: welcome to the program. it is 6:00 here in london this wednesday morning. carlsberg reporting numbers this morning, and if i give you the organic net revenue number in the fourth quarter, that came in well above estimates -- rising by 5%. the estimate was 1.8%. it is well on track, talking about further reduction in financial leverage in 2016. as the overall profitability of the business, excluding various items, also coming in above estimates at 1.4 billion kroner. fell, though, 4%. and that was a bigger fall than had been estimated, the estimate was for 2%.
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this is a business undergoing a big restructuring, cutting back jobs, closing various breweries after years of various declining profit. russia has been the key focus, turmoil in ukraine, that has really taken a chunk out of the business. the ceo will be speaking to our colleagues on surveillance. a very specific time, the relatively new ceo at carlsberg will be joining us just after 10:00 here in london. manus: you can always have a heineken. and they are rewarding shareholders, raising the dividend for 2016 -- up 18%. year,e whole of the profit, excluding items, came in at 2.5 billion euros. that was in line with what the market had estimated. but when it comes to organic rose, 2015 revenue -- up by 3.5%. poin
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the dividend is up some 18%. +++ this is what the market will keep an eye on. slightly above 2 billion, the actual dividend is up of course. mexico, vietnam, the u.s. and europe bolstering the numbers, versus the exposure to nigeria and russia. we want more beer. anna: but most of that was expected, i should say. let's get away from the beer conversation, though we should tell you we will be interviewing the ceo of hyne heineken right here on countdown. let a step away from beer, talk about the u.s. today. a big day for the fed, janet yellen speaks today. and with that in mind, let us review how expectations around interest rates in the u.s. have
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been scaled back over the last eight weeks. we have a chart here. manus: talk us through the dimensions, where we are. anna: that is eight weeks ago, meeting. flattened out on the green line, just underneath. a lot of focus on what she says come how she walks the fine line between the domestic and international. manus: she might establish more confidence in terms of the ability to deliver what it was told the market would do. it is politics and central banks, donald trump and bernie in new and the polemic hampshire. adding to the bond exposure, up from 22%. let us check in on the equity markets, under pressure. down again this morning. this is your risk on countdown. anna: part of the reason we are seeing that rout in the japanese market, it is never good for the
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exporters. another day of down numbers. that has been the story of the japanese session, up from where we were around the negative rate announcement. manus: keep in mind the gold, a great piece on the bloomberg terminal on losing the magic. keep an eye on both the yen and the euro. a huge piece on the bloomberg after sixan abandoned weeks, and it was a long dollar against the basket of euro and yen. nobody is perfect. anna: nobody is. let us get the bloomberg first word. jra: donald trump and bernie sanders have claimed victories in the new hampshire primary. sanders one easily over clinton, meaning the democrat could be added for a long and competitive cycle. ump the ohio governor
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john kasich. theman sachs have abandoned traits for the year, wrong on the dollar, versus the basket of euro-yen. u.s. inflation expectations and more, it underscores the volatility of the global market. federal reserve chair janet yellen will testify before congress later, it will be her first public appearance since the fed raised interest rates in september. investors will be scrutinizing her remarks to find if the bank will be scaling back for the recovery. deutsche bank is considering buying back some of its bonds, over concerns that germany's biggest bank. to make payments on his riskiest debt. meanwhile, the german finance minister said he is not worried about the lender. >> do you have any concerns from deutsche bank? >> no, i don't have concerns on
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deutsche bank. nejra: global news 24 hours a day, powered by 150 music euro around the world. manus: thank you very much. let us get to the asian markets. shery ahn is standing by. a real compounding of yesterday's off day, run us through the asian session so far. shery: good morning, manus. look at my map, just completely in the red. a little bit empty because we are seeing china, taiwan, korea celebrating the lunar year holiday. but the market did trade today, down. headed for a consecutive day of losses, you did mention earlier extending the yen much higher. 2.7%,at gives stocks down on his worst two-day slump since that huge earthquake back in 2011. australia in their territory
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now, down 1.2%, the lowest level since july of 2013. and we saw singapore coming back from their lunar new year holiday to join the selloff. very muchrse, today focused on janet yellen's testimony before the u.s. congress. take a look at the yen. it strengthened all week, now trading at half a percent, pass that ¥150 level. the worry that this rally might j'sually hurt the bo efforts to rally inflation, even after the negative deposit rates. look at what that is doing to the banks in japan. i continue to fall. after more% today, than 8% yesterday. of course, negative rates threatening to squeeze the prophet. and today, some of the biggest decliners. ddi, afterfirm, k
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reporting third-quarter earnings of missed estimates. back to you. anna: thank you, joining us from hong kong. beer brand biggest reporting profits in line of estimates, organic net growth by 5%. that was much bigger than the estimate of 1.8%. joining us now to dig into these figures, duncan fox, from bloomberg intelligence. i will start with carlsberg, that was the set i was looking at some of the beer volume number -- rather the organic net revenue volume. much better than estimated. but in the same quarter, beer volumes following more than estimated. duncan: russia is a key market for carlsberg.
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price of the ruble has fallen a bit, and it has been pretty hideous through q4. i suspect pricing has gone up quite a lot during the quarter, but also volumes getting impacted by the same impact. manus: one of the biggest numbers, heineken, in terms of the top line for 2015, the dividend is up 18%. that i wash in reading through some of the notes -- cost-cutting needs to be more aggressive, relative that there appears more meat on the bone. it is a balancing act between the geography of mexico, vietnam, the u.s. and other exposure. has a lotineken now more competition in those markets, some of the emerging markets. consequently, the cost basis is that much higher. they are working on that, doing it quite sensibly. taking it slowly and
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reinvesting, which is a central way of going about it. ma story, mario draghi saying they have made no decision on the sab miller. duncan: we have to wait until the regulators say yes or no, we do not know the deal is completed. but now it will probably summer before we get anything on that. and it makes sense to be looking at that. anna: duncan, thank you very much. the pimm fox. donald trump and bernie sanders have won the latest residential primaries in new hampshire. sanders easily beat his democratic rival, hillary clinton. anna: hans nichols joins us now with more. good morning to you. what are these commanding victories for sanders and trump? what do they mean for the broader electoral picture?
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side, itthe democratic means we clearly have a serious race on our hands that will go well into the next couple of months. on the republican side, it does not offer much clearly, other than the fact you had an electorate that is very angry, willing to support donald trump with more than 30% of the vote. final tally, he will come in at 35%. looking at the rest of the republican field, you have a bunch of candidates there that are bunched in third place at 12%. chris christie could come in sixth. and marco rubio potentially in fifth. jeb bush, are to see what his argument is for staying in. and you have ted cruz also doing well. the surprise on the night, aside from the margin of the trump and the sanders victory, the surprise of the night is really john kasich coming in at 60%. he is the governor of ohio. he offered a moderate message. now, mr. trump and his victory
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speech, he talked about mr. sanders and the differences between the two candidates. make sure to congratulate him. he seemed to relish a matchup in the general election. donald trump: i heard the end of bernie's speech, some of the beginning. no, first of all, congratulations to bernie. in all fairness, we have to congratulate him. we may not like it. but i heard parts of his speech, he wants to give away our country, folks. he wants to give away -- we are not going to let it happen. hans: the question for the rest of the republicans that came in, what is their argument for going on? chris christie is reassessing his campaign, he will be back in new jersey thinking of next steps. and john kasich him a heading to to a carolina, heading much more conservative side. he is talking about uplifting message, trying to heal the country. it is a remarkable contrast, in some ways, to mr. trump, who
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came in first. recapping a lot of anger. manus: where does this race go from here? this is almost like channeling hillary's last attempt. i mean, she graciously acknowledged sanders hitting the high notes here. more on the democratic campaign, versus the republican? what do you think? hans: on the democratic campaign, gets more diverse. the electorate looks a lot more white a lot you have more hispanics in nevada. of african population in south carolina. for the republican campaign, gets much more conservative. these are conservative states, which will make it harder for john kasich, more natural territory for ted cruz and for potentially donald trump tapping into working-class discontent. one thing that is clear, sanders will have the resources to go on. he turned it a fundraiser last night. senator bernie sanders: i am
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going to hold a fundraiser right here, right now -- across america. [applause] is, please go to berniesanders.com. help us raise the money we need to take the fight to nevada, south carolina, and the states on super tuesday. manus, and 10 days, south carolina will have the republicans. they will be voting for democrats in nevada. i will play assignment at her here. you get to go to nevada. anna goes to south carolina. i will sent in the anchor chair. i can only imagine the serious reporting you would do on the las vegas strip. manus: you just want to see the videos. anna: i think we need to send hans on assignment. he is getting far too chippy.
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one event we will be watching later on, janet yellen will deliver semi-annual testimony before the house. manus: that kicks off at 3 p.m. in the u.k. up next, not a strategy, that is ti.essage from the head of ci joins us next. waiting for higher prices? that is like waiting for godot. ♪
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emma: welcome back. 19 minutes after 6:00. let us get the bloomberg business flash. hsbc is being sued by the families of those murdered by the bank of mexico, because it let cartels launder billions of dollars. it brings fresh fruit need to mexican activity of hsbc, which in 2012, they'd $1.9 billion to
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resolve the criminal investigation. just six weeks in, goldman sachs has abandoned five of six recommended top trades for the year. the bank was wrong on the dollar versus the euro and the yen, and yields on the italian bond, and more. they underscore volatility that has the set global markets. a fall in late trading, t, despite the success of the new star wars movie, and helped lift studio earnings to more than $1 billion. net income was up 32%, with revenue rising by 14%. but earnings fell at espn as programming costs fell and subscribers fell. manus: thank you very much. the oil industry is gathering in londonand the good today for the start of international petroleum week. crude is down on the year. thethere are warnings that
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worst is not over yet. brian, you come every day with good news and bad news. today, it is more doom and gloom. ryan: the party was like it was 1999. but the oil was snapping, the good news, the for-day's treat happened overnight. up now 2% on the day. for that, we saw the biggest four-day losing streak in more than a year -- down 13%. two things you want to watch for today. one, u.s. inventory. you find that on the bloomberg by typing in crud. one of my favorite functions. and at 2:30 on the bloomberg, you will see inventory at 5 million barrels. the expectation them according to a bloomberg survey, that they rose by just more than 3 million barrels. if they rise more than that, the suggestion is that the glut just continues. we can expect, quite likely, oil
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to fall on the back of that. the other chart you want to look at today, you can also see this by typing in ovx on the terminal, is the crude volatility index. you will see that things have been very volatile. in fact, crude has not been this volatile since 2009. so, 6% -- just a couple of bucks across a big blow. we could get there, given the volatility we have seen even today. anna: if i were in the oil industry, i would be partying like it was 1999. thank you very much, ryan chilcote. let us turn our attention to david wilson, director of metals and global strategy at citi. what is happening in the metal space? i like the title of your note, how much can you allege that the mining sector has a moment?
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david: we are not really seeing enough adjustments in terms of what we have seen a significant slowdown in demand from august the the world's biggest consumer, china. but we have seen some adjustments in some markets. not really across the board. we don't seem to see m iners thinking it might be lower for longer. mining men, really ranting that point home. the market in terms of strategy of just keep on producing. anna and i have come up with this, a correlation between the yen. take us through the rest of it. anna: in yellow, you have the declining yuan. and in white you have the chinese copper imports climbing. in your notes, david, we have
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actually seen chinese copper imports rising, when the currency was depreciating. that is not what people expect. what is that showing us? david: copper is cheap. but also to the point is that chinese buyers are thinking it will continue to devalue. why not buy now? ms, you buy rnb ter ahead of that. the: not anything relying underlying demand -- manus: is that tied into the story? david: again, it would make sense given where prices are. and we did say, obviously, the beginning of the year, the reserves bureau issued 150,000 tons, which is no doubt tightened that domestic market to some extent. we were buying in the first half of last year, as well. interestingly, the surge in the imports we saw in the fourth quarter was incredibly strong at that 26% year on year.
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and we did not see that going into the bonded inventory, hardly moved through december. through january, bonded inventory as fallen by about 40,000 tons or is this question about where that copper is going? it is a difficult one to answer, at the moment. manus: let's talk about the dividend, the progressive dividend policy has been moott . theaw a script dividend on oil price, i thought that was interesting. you shaved the dividend there. talk us through your story, and terms of dividends. what is safe, who is most at risk? david: i tend to focus on the markets, rather than the company. it is an interesting issue i can skirt around, not go into detail. manus: let us go to the cause in terms of bullishness versus usual position, in terms of the six-month view. report, a the citi
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bearish reading. said theyday, they have no commodity exposure in the portfolios. david: in the short to medium-term term, downside, most of the big metals -- copper in particular -- we think we could see levels down to 4000, or slightly below come in the next 3-6 months or so. looks very poor. we obviously sought move below 7000 -- i am sorry, 8000 earlier this week. you hearing any position, people. building long positions? david: interestingly, in china on the shanghai market, we did begin to see a lot of those funds that had the traditional major shorts. and everybody talks about china. changing their positioning and moving on. now, the question is, is there something there? ,r was there regulatory change
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investigations into shortselling? anna: david, thank you. at citi.of metals ♪
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manus: 6:30 in london. let us get the bloomberg business first word news. nejra: the anti-establishment candidate donald trump and bernie sanders have claimed victories in the new hampshire primary. sanders won easily over hillary clinton, meaning the democrat to be headed for a long a competitive fight. trump, meanwhile, beat a crowded republican field with ohio governor john kasich in second place. goldman sachs has abandoned five of its six recommended top trades for the year. the bank was wrong on the dollar, versus the basket of euro-yen. yields on italian bonds, u.s. inflation expectations, and
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more. it underscores the volatility that has set global markets. global return fund has boosted holdings of u.s. related debt. was after a rush after the security sent treasuries surging to the number one stock among the bond market. the u.s. is attracting investors with 10 year yields of 1.71%, compared to 1.2% in japan and germany. federal reserve chair janet yellen will testify before congress later. it will be her first public appearance since the fed raised interest rates in december. investors will be scrutinizing remarks to find whether the central bank will continue pulling back in support for the economic recovery. anna? anna: thank you very much. let us check in on how the market is doing. caroline hyde has details for us. again, riskce
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aversion sweeping through asian trading at the moment. we have a great function on the bloomberg, that is showing you the indices being hit at the moment. i am focusing in on the nikkei index in japan. industry group being tarnished in this risk aversion trade. up by 1.45%. one of the real downsides, tell bymunication leading, down 4.3%. that really does break down just the overwhelming risk aversion that you are seeing across every single industry group over in asian trading. and we see some of these themes in u.s. and european trading, but let us have a look at what is happening at the yetn. once again those havens info. continuing to rise, and i have a chart showing you how volatility in the fx market bills, so, too, has the yen.
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this is inverted, usually you have dollar-yen, but the blue, that is continuing the upward factory. as we see continued volatility. on the white charter we have the jpmorgan global fx volatility index. that is showing you the fx volatility suddenly spiking up and christian going. fx volatility highest since may 2012. quickly, i want to show you on gold. we have seen how much gold is en vouge. stay with me. this is an exciting chart. we were so far off where we were in 2012. this was your average price in terms of gold. this is how it has been trading over the past five years, this green line here showing that it has been averaging about $1000 an ounce over the past five years. yes, on the best start to the
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year on gold since 1980. the stillwell off of those highs. it seems that those are beating up the gold prices, but it could be coming to an end as the lunar new year celebrations stop. back to you guys. anna: caroline, thank you. manus: amid the tough environment for the bank, and the italian peers, but the ceo of the bank says the problem extends beyond europe. banks, i can tell you the situation was more critical than other countries. but right now, i see that also for european countries, all banks in europe. i do not see a specific logic now in the market, except for the fact that it is deeply flawed. anna: meanwhile, deutsche bank is considering buying back some of its bond, potentially countering this months selloff
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over concerns that germany's biggest lender will struggle to make payments on his riskiest debt. is what some top investors had to say about deutsche bank. >> i think some european banks have been slow to getting recapitalized, getting the best place they could be. bank isnk deutsche pretty sound, actually. at the end of the day, as you quite rightly say, it is a german national icon. >> we don't have a formal rating on deutsche bank, but my guess is that the shareholders there, they face some sort of delusion and the capital structure. >> we have seen differentiation in europe. what you know what, it is only at 86 basis points. that is really important for the markets are differentiating between the banks. >> when i was following in 2007, billion on thex
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exposure, i had no idea what they were talking about. i cannot look at wikipedia. nobody else did. i think we have a much better handle on the balance sheet. but that is not stopping people having that fear factor. >> i don't have concerns about deutsche bank. bank, one institution raising that level of concern, you get the german finance minister to shore up confidence. i have not seen this since some bankers told me they were solvent in 2007, 2008. hans: well, we have in the latest on deutsche bank, and i think it is important that he made that statement -- a public and deutschedence bank -- it gives you a sense of how little confidence there is in the market. we have a potential plan to buy back some senior debt. no decision on this has been made. that is according to those familiar with the matter. cash to makeample
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a purchase. the financial times reported on tuesday that they could be buying some senior debt. this crucially, though, would convertiblethose bonds that have really been the center of the story the last 48 hours. what is clear is that the stock has been taking a beating, throughout the year. yesterday, up slightly on this news that they may do this debt repurchase. it jumped a little bit on that. when you look at the really risky bonds, i think we are talking about in the area of 53.8 billion euros. that is for senior outstanding debt. i should not say risky bonds. that is the weighted average maturity. it is six years, manus. come oute the ceo yesterday, make a defense of his bank, saying it was rock salad. solid. even though deutsche bank was down yesterday, it was not down as much of the european peers. credit suisse was down 7%.
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anna: hands, thank you very much. i will take it from here. we have plenty of voices talking about deutsche bank. here is another one. goldman sachs saying mumbai and large, we have not been that worried about the big global banks. but i will not write a blank check on that. how much is this just a deutsche bank issue? maybe the market getting to grips with what are cocos? a broaderch is this concern about the european banking sector? stephen: negative interest rate, that has a negative feedback through the whole of the market. in the sense that we have been told, for a long time not just in the last few years, the central bank will do whatever it takes. we have someone there who was prepared to, in march let's say, cut rates even more. and that would bail everybody out. what we are seeing with banks,
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is that negative rates are disastrous, effectively a tax on earnings. it does not mean that they are insolvent. your chart to the right is interesting. we are not worried about liquidity year. manus: what i am trying to demonstrate here, this is one of our stories this morning, people are talking about deutsche bank. if we look back to the banks having to pay above the government, we are going back to two thousand seven there. and you are up over 120 basis points. this is not a liquidity issue that the market is concerned about. that would be your base case. stephen: what we are worried about is margins, and the ending. ultimately, the overall strategy. this is where deutsche bank has been singled out for perhaps the right reasons. amongst the europeans, it is one tothe few who has attempted maintain a full-scale investment banking presence. and unfortunately, investment banking is a declining industry.
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first of all, it was fixed income, revenues globally, which were about 150 billion across all banks, now down to 100 and falling further. if you add to that a bear market mmaequities, perhaps activity, you see a declining cake overall. deutsche bank is caught somewhere in the middle. they are not sure if they want to do a morgan stanley, a full retreat and concentrate on wealth management. or to actually tough it out and fight it out with goldman, bank of america etc. they have strategic issues here. in the market is saying, where do you stand? anna: the other problem this week seems to be the italian banking sector. we have nonperforming loans, of course. but activity has been happening behind the scenes to create something. but you are not convinced by europe's stance on this?
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stephen: there is a very complicated structure in place, where the italian legislator guarantees the nonperforming loans. and that will be allowing them to be sold off to falter hedge funds. it isind of environment, a complicated structure. it is not certain that people have confidence in it. the proof of the pudding is in easing. the worry is that, what needs to be done to really grasp it here is some sort of tap, some sort of bad bank. 18% of italian bank debt is nonperforming. that have to be resolved. but within the eu rules, that would be executed as state aid. manus: i want to interrupt you here, we have breaking news in regards to the comments in france, that she is not waylaid. i find this utterly amazing.
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you have the german finance minister talking about deutsche bank. and the bank of france's governor saying that they were much more solid in 2008, the economic uncertainty is outside the eurozone. i mean, that is quite a staggering statement to make. that the worries are all outside the eurozone. stephen: you hardly expect finance managers to trash their own banks. what they say is inevitably back to contingent invertible, we have seen it with the portuguese bank being recapitalized. debt beingbordinate bailed in, taking big haircuts. the concept that european banks cannot be immune from some sort of recapitalization, which i'm afraid that the market is missing out -- more is the use of cocos
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of a european thing? make something that will the credit of the european banks a little more volatile, because it will look more like equity? ofphen: well, it is a slice debt that has not been tested in the prices. we do not quite know what will happen. but yes, the very nature of the beast is that it implies you will suffer some sort of equity bailing, in certain scenarios. there you are. the scenarios are happening. manus: this is the crisis of 2015 that we are facing. --ng with commodities, oil stephen: we have a multifaceted crisis year. to come back to central banking and the fed can we have a serious problem here -- declining profitability, slow growth. and the stock market that is now clearly wobbling. in previous cycles, we have all been able to rely on a central
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bank somewhere, let us say the fed, having ample room to cut rates. therefore, putting some sort of floor on asset prices. we do not have that now. the feds -- manus: hold that thought. we will talk about the fed. after a very short break. stephen isaacs stays with us. anna: as janet yellen makes her first public appearance soon, we will be back to discuss. ♪
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anna: welcome back. 6:47 in london. let us get the bloomberg business flash. nejra: heineken has reported 2015 profit in line with estimates, excluding special items, 2.0 5 billion euros for
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the dutch beer maker. the company does see further organic revenue this year. and we will be interviewing the ceo at 7:20 u.k. time, right here on countdown. meanwhile, carlsberg says earnings will rise this year, helped by asia, operating profit will increase by low, seo-digit basis.ages on a that is as the copenhagen beer maker made better than estimate. hsbc is being sued by the families of those murdered by drug gangs in mexico, because it let cartels longer billion of dollars to operate the businesses. hsbc says it will fight the claims in the lawsuit. disney is falling in late trading, despite first quarter profits beating expectations on success of the new star wars movie. it helped lift studio earnings by 86%, to more than $1 billion.
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net income of 32%, net revenue rising, too. but revenue fell at espn as subscribers fall. that is your bloomberg business flash. manus: thank you very much. janet yellen in a difficult position as the fed chair heads to the hill for her estimate before the house financial services committee. she will have to balance optimism on the state of the u.s. economy with the elephant in the room, extreme volatility in global markets. stephen isaacs is still with us. stephen, many people anna and i have spoken to over the last several days, look, it is going to be a fine balancing act she has to walk. but many say they also want to hear she is in a position to continue to raise rates because that is what the world wants to see, a stronger america, a higher fed. the banks would be happy. what do you want to hear today, what will you focus on today?
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stephen: i think she is going to have to talk confident. back to what the german finance minister was talking confidently about deutsche bank, it would be pretty unusual for a fed chair to be expressing real concerns about financial stability in the markets. i think she will talk confidence. i think the real problem for the fed is that they have back themselves to one particular corner, looking at employment data. that is the thing they think is ok. the headline and rate is below 5%. it is 4.9% as we saw last week. more crucially, wage pressure is starring to build. the fed is saying, monetary policy is a lagging, long-term indicator. if we do not start raising rates now, though only are storing up weight problems for the future. and i think she is going to reiterate that prognosis. anna: do you not think that that wage pressure will stand any deflationary -- a reason why a hike would be long?
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stephen: i don't know if it is wrong or right. you can write a book on it. i will leave that to the economist. i am more interested in what it means to markets. unfortunately, back to this assumption that the medicine will always be there, the medicine of further easing, unfortunately, the fed betting itself into the corner and looking at one indicator, which is still continuing to deliver reasonable figures, i think the fed are going to have to say -- and janet yellen will be emphasizing today -- rate hikes are definitely on the agenda. there is a big problem for the market. manus: i want to talk about the market indications. what we have here is the function on the bloomberg. that we have monitored at bloomberg. whichs. treasuries have more than 10-years of maturity, these are blockbusters. look at this. 3.41% on return. this is from the end of january until late. this goes back to adam's
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original argument at the start of the show, a flattening of the curve. this is a momentum gathering pace, or has it run its course? stephen: if you believe we are in the early stages of a financial crisis in which i do, i don't think so. manus: you believe pimco. stephen: i would entirely agree with that view. investment credit is our focus. which is a long story, which i will not bore you with. but perhaps we can have a quick chat about politics. i love your picture. an orange picture, i like that. other risks out there are that the actuality of rejectionists, and we had holes -- and you can believe them as much as you like -- we are now down to actual voters. the first open primary, i will was a caucus, and the donald and bernie sanders both delivered. in this situation, where the two candidates who won with actual
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voters, they are both variations of a sort of agenda. manus: they are polemic. stephen: what would a donald trump presidency look like? he wears the crown, would he be constrained by the system? i am not sure he would be. i think he would be much more sort of juan peron populist, what we see in argentina today. anna: if you look at the rise in the rejectionists, what do you do with that information? other than worry? stephen: i think you worry a great deal. these are the risks i am afraid of tipping the scenario to an outright bear market. to be very cautious. presidency a trump wreak havoc with financial markets? stephen: definitely. absolute chaos. much like marine le pen.
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manus: where would that havoc manifest itself? stephen: let us look earlier than that. some of these events are going to take earlier to out. let us look at ecb policy. i have a rather strange concern that the germans, who are suffering on a number of fronts, we talked about deutsche bank read but no one talks about the refugee crisis. the kind of sense that there is been no solidarity in dealing with this major, axis central issue. when it comes to monetary policy, the germans do not need negative interest rates. the german economy is reasonably strong. germans might say, sorry, enough. anna: and we have had the french central talking about how the ecb is ready to act this morning. stephen isaacs, joining us from outline capital. we have banking news coming in. manasquan let us cross over to caroline at the bloomberg terminal. underlying results significantly
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below $3.1 billion. caroline: significantly below for 2015, as well. this is the perfect storm, a company that is not only exposed to the oil market, but exposed to trade, as well. you know it as a shipping lighter. but big oil is a company there. there are seeing underlying results independently below $3.1 billion. 3.7ysts have thought billion dollars to be pulled in this year overall. but what we are seeing for 2016 in a moment, they say the line of shipping their business, 2016 underlying results significantly below the previous year. the break even on the oil price is 45-50 dollars. the breakeven is $45? we are currently trading at 45? they are proposing a dividend of some 300 danish krone dividend per share. that is below where
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dividends were expected. but this is a company that sees $3.1 billion in underlying profit in 2015, missing analysts'estimates. that is more than we were expecting. slumping by about 30%, expecting to be that bad next year, as well. they are seeing a hit from the oil price overall, not going to break even unless oil is at $55 per barrel. and they are also seeing underlying negative results for 2016 oil of their equation. this is why the company hurts so much because this is what is happening to the price of trade. sharper rates are falling because of overcapacity. pricess is why the share falling, as well. and: caroline, thank you. during on the move, we will speak to him. manus: we have declining futures in the u.s. and in london. the london market is open.
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we are at the moment down 8.5%. looking at a tentatively lower opening. it is all about politics, all about the fed today, as janet yellen goes in front of congress. ♪ we live in a pick and choose world.
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and of the day of aggressive spending in japan. stocks fail to find a bottom. and again marches higher. anna: janet yellen testifies before congress. europe's biggest investment bank is it to consider a buyback on some of its bonds. confident jermaine shaken. anna: u.s. election gets more complicated. ♪
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manus: welcome to "countdown." anna: it is just gone 7:00 in london. we have some more update of the fashion sector. manus: 2016 sales growth will fall short of their midterm goal. they cite economic uncertainty. of course, it is the iconic handbag. $10,000, that is locked in at 1.5 euros a share. billion --tted 4.8 4 84 billion.4. they cite uncertain economic activity. is concern that people might be stopping because of the paris terror attack. this seems to be more global
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picture there talking about this morning. more news from the chip designer base of the u.k.. could -- just ahead of estimates. that looks to be ahead of the estimates. there talking recommending a dividend increase. in terms of their adjusted eps giving us 8.2 pence. that is in line with estimates. their dollars revenue full year will be broadly in line with estimates. no big change in terms of the outlook. on the move will be speaking to the ceo just passed it :00 this morning london time right here on bloomberg. the: it is actually taking bank, no dividend to be paid. their are a shareholder, focus for much in africa recommending no dividend is paid this announcement. there also talking about
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expenditure for 2016. working to cut this. dividend wereull yield revenue comes in at $1.6 billion. that is a decline from previous. a full-year loss after tax, it comes in at $1.04 billion. no dividend with the key news that comes through on the tullow story. the reality of luxury is on the run. from sevens slipping minutes ago. we had exactly replica of this yesterday morning. i know people are getting excited in the aftermath of another dying day in asia. don't forget, asia was playing catch-up game which moved quite aggressively yesterday. feature set for a higher opening.
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march indicated up 24.5 points. anna: if you're wondering how the day will shape up, it will be dominated by the fed later on. janet yellen speaking has been moving the treasury curve a. we talk about that of the -- ahead of the last hour. let's check in on some of those. from ¥121 to the dollar which is where we were to that negative bounce. 150 currencies around the world since they went to negative currency. this is one of those moments, goldman sachs -- major trade to 2016. that was long dollar against euro and yen. you know what? cemetery that is smart. -- some would say that is smart. four minutes past seven in
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london, this is the first word with caroline hyde. caroline: donald trump a bernie sanders have claimed victory in the new hampshire primary. sanders won easily over hillary clinton which means the democrats could be headed for a long and competitive cycle. donald trump beat the republican field with john kasich in second place. abandoned fiveas of its six recommended top traits of the year. ,he bank said they were wrong yields on its high-end the bonds and u.s. inflation expectation. they underscore the volatility that has upset the global markets. janet yellen testify before congress later. we have -- it is her first public appearance since the fed raised interest rate in december.
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deutsche bank is considering buying back some of its bonds. germany's biggest bank will struggle to make payments on its debt. meanwhile, the german finance minister said to bloomberg he is not worried about the lender. >> is there any concerns at deutsche bank? i know, i don't have -- no, don't have concerns about deutsche bank. let's get straight over to asia. i was just talking -- trucking straight on. anna: let's take you to markets with shery ahn. shery: very eager to come here to asia. it is not a great day, look at
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the stoxx all falling. we are seeing that downward pressure. australia now in bear territory. lowest rate since july 2013. banks also leading the decline triggered by concerns about china's economy. not to mention, those falling commodity prices. new zealand stocks also falling close to 1%. it is how the lowest level since -- japan the worst today slump sense that huge earthquake back in 2011. the nikkei down, lowest level since october 2014. the strengthening yen is not helping those exporters. take a look at the movers in japan, a telecom firm led the decline among the 33 industry groups. reporting third-quarter earnings, asking investors not to happy that fell 5%. keep falling.
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extending yesterday's losses. we have as negative deposit rates threatening to squeeze profits. even with a negative deposit rate, people are concerned that will not be enough to revive inflation. that is, if we continue to see the yen strengthening. gaining .3% and getting past that 115 yen level. thank you guys. manus: thank you very much. let's bring in the chief investment officer for equities. always great to have you with us. look, equity is battered. banks battered. cio,it shake you, as a does it shake the conversation that we have. have you changed anything? have you been provoked to think about anything? lucy: we have been expecting volatility.
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we have said that all through last year. expect the first rise that would be very significant. it has had a delayed effect. then you had china and oil prices as well in the background. the volatility and the rise -- i --nk the extensive thought it is more than we expected in january. i think we probably seeing a few bargains. levels rising a little bit too much for the sentiment. anna: what will cause markets to regain their footing? what will cause them to breathe easier for the a while? will it be a little bit less volatility in the dollar, for example? everything needs to settle down a little bit. lucy: the environment in liquidity's is a factor. for a while we had a huge global
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market. be the biggesto attempt at liquidity and interest rates. the dollar is an important part of that. the amount of debt in the world -- that has to be one focus. the other source of volatility is china. particularly, chinese currency. our focus will be quite a lot on currency and social volatility. the oil price -- we can talk about that in more detail. you would've thought it was at surprise -- a negative and is first the actual amount of thought we have seen. manus: just at the start of the dm rising against the majority of currencies. no matter what is happening, that is like negative rates, who cares? the euro is acting -- the dollar is coming up.
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this was supposed to be the year of divergent entrance and currencies. this is not, thus far. this is a year of con versions. ents.oes that -- converg -- it will be quite a prophetic moment from janet yellen. looking at the options, they'll don't look for a many. of the rise this year looks to be unlikely at the moment. we can't really move. that is, tilting settle down. we would be very interested to see what they say about that. that but acus governmental conditions, we know that they do. manus: they're tightening, aren't they? one of the other functions we use -- talking about the bond market. we asked we shifting more towards bonds? tenure government bonds have --
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10 year government bonds have month.htis this is there anything that is shifting your focus in terms of your bond exposure? lucy: looking at equities against the bonds with they got lot more tractive than they did -- a lot more attractive than they did. it is not just the bond like investment which has done well. utilities, but some of the middle range which have really been hit the bad. they look more interesting now. it is been a simplistic market environment. lenovo has done well among markets. that leaves quite a lot of potential for interesting developments if you look at it a bit more carefully. anna: over the recent days in
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european banking, do you stay away from european banks as a result? we have ever since the financial crisis. until they get to grips with their capital position, there is no need to be there. we are still not there yet. more restructuring needs to be done. last year,big issues one from standard charger -- charter. there is more to come. i think we just want the restructuring to happen. we want to see those capital levels. we want to see the end of the litigation. we would've thought the cannot be that many more markets. we should be getting to the end of that. anna: do you think these convertible -- were they a good idea?
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that is where a lot of concern lies at the moment. lucy: the concern is about the liquidity of them. lose o holders could their coupon, that is the whole point. you are getting the yield. they are useful tool. but the liquidity of those instruments is in question. particularly, whether those that bought them really thought through the liquidity. are about to enter this conversation in the next 40 minutes on bloomberg. we'll will talk to the heineken ceo. most -- the most important thing we should try to you -- learn. beer is diverse. to you, what is the most
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important thing you want to see in this report? lucy: we are very interested in demand profiles at the moment. and concern with an equity markets. we can't say that, i do for the top down on the bottom up. that is just one specific supply driven industry. the problem, elsewhere come we can't see slow down -- consumers generally have paid down debt. wages are in some areas rising. interest rates are low. for us, we cannot see a major problem. that is why we are talking to ceos and asking how their business is going. anna: we'll see if there's any macro evidence of that. i give her to much for joining us. here is your day ahead. there is one event the entire financial market will be watching -- fed chair janet
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yellen will testify before congress. that kicks in at 3:00 in u.k. time. 10:00 a.m. washington. anna: next we view the ceo of heineken. those earnings and numbers came across a little bit earlier. we will talk about that, and competing with the miller buyout. ♪
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anna: let's get to the bloomberg business flash with caroline. danish shipping giant says it underlying result
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in 2016 will be significantly below last year's underlying $3.1 billion. the double he broke down the value of its oil assets. its break even include price was $45 a barrel. but it hasn't traded at that since december the first. they claim the bank had been held responsible for the deaths because it let cartels loaned billions of dollars to businesses. hsbc says it will fight the claims in the lawsuit. earnings will rise this you to help fight growth markets in asia. profit will increase by a low single-digit percentage. that news came as a copenhagen-based reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat forecasts. the chief executive of speaking colleagues on surveillance at 10:00 you can time heineken had private in line with analysts asked it -- estimates.
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says the organic revenue and profit growth is increasing. that is the newsflash. manus: thank you very much. let's get a little bit more now joined now by the heineken ceo. thank you very much for joining us. you referred -- 16% rise in .rofit your margins will expand at 40 basis points, well done. shareholders are happy. my question to you is this -- profit will increase in 2016 with an increasingly challenging external environment. a very confident statement. where are your sales and profits specifically going to rise? we never make that kind of
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precise predictions come as you know. we had a very diversified portfolio of countries and brands which allows us to spread the risk. on the one hand, you will love headwinds. -- you will have headwinds. and countries like vietnam that will benefit from lower oil prices the overall, our balance and portfolio footprint leaves us to make that confident statement. while admitting that will be some headwinds, obviously. confident in seem the face of all of these macro challenges. i appreciate you making the distinction between the oil producers and the non-oil producers. where does that leave europe? does that mean this is a good up a dirty to get more out of the european business? n-francois: we have been embarking on an investment policy to innovations in europe and innovations have moved fast.
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mixes,hol products, beer -- all kinds of initiatives which bring topline revenue growth in europe. oil prices don't translate one-on-one in europe into beer consumption. that would be foolish to make that case. but it certainly brings some additional discretionary purchasing power to people, which beer is a small part of that. we want to play our part with them. overall, i think europe can benefit from lower oil prices. we have obviously got an ongoing news going through from -- on whetherre they reach agreement or not. where are we?
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after this deal, who is the most obvious buyer? what are the assets that you are interested in? -francois: as much as i could make some comments, i think it is difficult for me. are running a competitive auction process. it is their process. we have to just wait for the outcome. that is not even a thought that we had. we'll just await for with the winner will be in the future. anna: would it make sense for those reasons? if it was a japanese business, for example? an-francois: obviously, asian investors don't have antitrust because they do not have brewing
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access to europe. they don't have that hurdle. at the same time, they don't benefit from synergy when they enter a new market. that is the chicken and the a guinness story. obviously, -- chicken and the egg in the story. snapping atill be your heels, aren't they? the other dynamic is this -- about 86% ofe is sales according to our bloomberg intelligence team. they're saying this is relative hire to your peers. is there room for more cost cuts? we should be perceived the efficiencies to come in 2016 from heineken? jean-francois: for over 20 years we have been following strict productivity programs.
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we have reported that for a precisely. now we get more guidance on the over result. yes, a company that stops investing in productivity improvement will go backwards. we continue to do that. costng has a high fixed level. airplanes, fill the hotels, and breweries alike. manus: does not come from the fact that -- do you need to go more local in terms of your production? could we see a shift in the productivity side from you? thatfrancois: you say because we are in europe -- we are market leaders in europe and are proud of that. seen europe growing for the second consecutive year. on the backdrop of investment policies into innovation, and working on our productivity. it can work.
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you can engineer for some slow growth. anna: thank you for an much for joining us. time to tell you that the fourth quarter number operating came in ahead of estimates. ♪
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,"y: welcome to "on the move we're counting you down to the european open. there is something happening on the hill. jonathan: fed chair janet yellen q things to say. on deck.len what a different six weeks makes. we start 2016 in the hike in march around 50%. nasa zero -- now something like zero? thing is is the only can hang my hat on that is fundamentally changed. effectively, the market has pr

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