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tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  February 11, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm EST

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we are moments away from the closing bell. you are watching a special edition of "what'd you miss?" slide,ocks cutting their crude bounced off the lowest level in 12 years. , perhapsas overdone due for a clawback. nasdaq did rise before making its way south. joe: a sad end at the very end. it looked like the nasdaq was going to make a heroic coverage -- recovery. alix: you did see markets rebound along with oil. it coincided with the s&p raking below that 1812 level it hit on january 20. it went below that, then rallied. we have a triple bottom around that level. what happens?
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will we extend gains and go into tomorrow or break below? i'm sure you are skeptical of those opec headlines. alix: never going to happen. scarlet: when we came in today, the setup was so grim when you look at european markets. i checked to see which of the national markets in europe was down and up. the only one that gained was kazakhstan. are at the lowest with the europe 600 since october 2013, london since july 2012, paris at the lowest since july 2013. we also saw the dax fall below the 200-day moving
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average. this index is teetering on a bear market. you can see it is well below that 200-day. bank,n point to deutsche commerzbank, all the banks a drag. in the u.s., one of the worst losers is boeing. probe, notg an sec helping stocks. joe: a very interesting day in the sovereign bond market. in europe, bond yields starting to surge. here is a chart of the price of the portuguese bond. to 89 as the yield surges. people are concerned that the socialist government is going to backtrack on some spending cut plans and that there could be
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downgrades, so once again in the eurozone we have all these issues of concern about government debt. meanwhile, the yields in the u.s. keep declining. an extraordinary morning, but more downward pressure. alix: were talking about the flattening yield curve. deutsche bank pointed out that if you have two-year yields below 1% -- saying the yield curve is distorted and we are at recession signals. scarlet: in terms of risk aversion, the yen strengthening. it gains in value versus the dollar, versus the euro, every major currency. was talk that the bank of japan might have to intervene. the commodity world have
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the same shakeout we saw and stocks. oil got pummeled throughout the day. at one point, it touched a new 12-year low. then it had that unbelievable rally after that opec headline. it is almost unchanged on the day. i headline that came across is that one company is stopping its .eserve based lending that is something to watch going forward with the continued stress on oil companies. what does that mean for the price in the future if they can get money? have said this is the kind of stuff that we need to see for a bottom on oil. scarlet: gold is nearing a bull , over $1200 an ounce. alix: that is clearly where the safety is. scarlet: those are today's
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market minutes. alix: i'm looking at the relationship of the oil and dollar. i have the euro-dollar here. i have inverted it. that is weird. when the dollar the kleins, oil rallies. when the dollar rallies, oil falls. the fact that they are moving together tells you something. perhaps this is capitulation when you have both of them selling off at the same time, not their typical relationship. joe: it's funny thinking about going into this year, everybody talking about diversions, and then the story just the opposite, euro rallying. speaking of expectations of fed funds, this chart i am looking at is the fed funds futures for next january. what ucf the bottom is that --
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ist you see at the bottom the rate next january, effectively at .38, so basically what this is saying that the market is pricing in no hikes for one year. it is just crazy. a few weeks ago, we were talking about a 50% chance of a hike in march, now the market is pricing in nothing, and you can see that by where the market expects the fund rates to be next january. can that reprice if we don't fall off a cliff? how fast is a change? lookedst october, it like a december rate hike was totally off the table, then the december rate hike happen, so these things can move back-and-forth pretty fast. scarlet: i want to show you the ,ain of unwinding the trade
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brawling in yen to seek higher assets. a popular trade has been to buy japanese toxin hedge the yen. here is the pain -- to buy thenese stocks to hedge yen. here is the pain. january 28, the bank of japan adopted negative interest rates. this is about marketing positioning, as investors liquidated holdings, they had to buy the funding curve, the yen. all their other trade fall apart as well. alix: your long the nikkei, and short the yen. cbs,et: breaking news on wait one second -- i got it. fourth quarter adjusted operating income $747 million,
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trailing the average analyst estimate. fourth-quarter advertising revenue rose 1%, led by a person growth and network advertising. companiese media being highly leverage to the u.s. economy. 1% growth is not exactly the stuff of a strong economy. beat, no miss their. in terms of revenue, $3.91 billion for the fourth quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $3.8 billion. scarlet: i want to talk about pandora. alix: that stock is falling. it sees first-quarter revenue at yearmillion, for the full $1.42 billion. that forecast is coming in light to what analysts had estimated, looking at $1.5 billion for the full year. scarlet: the stock tumbled more
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after paring some losses, now down about 1%. alix: active listeners at 81.8 million, versus 70.1 million last quarter. our next guest is katie stockton, technical strategist, calling for continued declines. what you make of the fact that the s&p fell below 1812 been rally? >> the late day rally's don't give me much peace of mind, quite frankly. you see constant 20 down handles every morning. to me, that's a reflection of downside momentum, weakening brett, market participation -- dth. you're still down in the s&p 500, and the action is in positive. , 1860 sevenow
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initial support, has been taken out by this move, and we are testing support from october 2014. it does look in jeopardy of breaking. we seen a lot of international markets take out their january lows, equipment support levels. joe: we got something of a rebound even though financials like today, down 3%. how important is it to you to see that turnaround. can the overall market come back? think the financials need to participate if we will see any kind of tradable relief rally. so far, we've only seen what i consider to be dead cat bounce as for the major indices, and they've had no pursuit dissipation for the most part from the banks. oversold,did get very
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so that sets them up for a potential balance in the days of weeks ahead. yet i really would not jump in front of it, not until you see momentum improve, meaning a ,ew days of stabilization average a start flattening out, but indy like that, t that would be essential. scarlet: i'm looking at the nysene advance line on the . when you look at the cumulative advance to climb line, what you seeing there? there is a breakdown could this is why i became more bearish at the start of the year. dths time, the loss of brea was significant. that break down manifested itself on the individual stock level, and they keep coming. are there any sentiment
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measures that you like to look at that show signs of a capitulation bottom? panic?here just too much >> we have a lot of indicators we used to try to gauge those climactic bottoms, including leadership,volume, sentiment, the vix is the widely followed one. we like the vix, the put calls. these measures lose some environment where you have breakdowns, 2008 vix, and put in the --vix calls, but they stay there. first and foremost we have to differ to the breakdown and defer to the momentum behind the market. scarlet: we hear breakdown, momentum, what security is leading u.s. markets? >> on the downside?
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scarlet: that's right. >> financial leadership, we seen a recent breakdown in consumer discretionary, technology looks runnable, and on the flipside more defensive sector rotation, staples, utilities, even some signs of life in multinational industrials, and some other selected areas like old miners. you laugh at that well done. thank you very much. katie stockton, key technical strategist. the sovereign wealth funds effects on the selloff in financials, next. ♪
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mark: let's get to first word
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news. rizzo signed an agreement with the research hospital in texas to develop a vaccine against the zika virus. have the vaccine ready and 12 months. brazil plans to invest $1.9 million into the research. bernie sanders and hillary clinton taking the battle to wisconsin tonight. the first big debate since new hampshire. the vermont senator says his campaign had a record-breaking day of fundraising, more than $7 million. he tied mrs. clinton -- meantime mrs. clinton picked up a branch of the congressional black caucus, announcing their support today. --t support at a life life wildlife refuge and organ is over. the last four occupiers gave themselves up. the holdouts were the remaining remnants of a group that sees
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the wildlife refuge on january 2 , demanding the government turn over the land to locals and released to renters in prison for setting fires. lester was the hottest year on for disasterffice risk reduction said more than 98 million people affected by disasters in 2015, 32 major droughts. i am mark crumpton. scarlet: breaking news from aig, results have come out, operating loss was wider than what was look for. analysts were looking for $.91 per share versus $1.10 per share. dividend as well. paulsonnominated john the hedge fund manager as well as a managing director of icon capital board of directors.
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we will continue to keep an eye on aig as news crosses. scarlet: it is no secret financials have limited clients. concerns, earnings, and rates weigh on the sector. one thing you may have missed is the power of sovereign wealth funds. financials are the biggest holdings in funds and novel dobby, kuwait, and powder -- powder financials made up more than 20% of equity investment in the third quarter of 2000 15. joining us now to discuss the sector and global volatility, global markets registered at j.p. morgan asset management. the firm has assets under management of $1.7 trillion. this is one of the theories going around. wealth funds have to sell. you buy it? >> we buy that it is
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exacerbating the fall, but by no means the main cause. the complete collapse and expectations for rate hikes in the u.s. this year, that's the biggest driving force here. sovereign wealth fund selling is exacerbating that pressure. joe: what has changed. you go back to the federal reserve. why has the markets are radically changed its view on what central banks are going to do, and also there has been this constant drumbeat, market hates negative rates, what boj has done, sweden going further to yellen possibly talking about the theoretical idea of negative rates. why this dramatic turn against the central banks to mark >> i don't think anything has changed to justify the following profitability for the fed. we were comparing today the probabilities, basically zero for any rate hike this year, to two days ago when it was significantly higher, and nothing has really changed in the meantime.
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if anything, yellen said rate hikes are still on the table. i do think anything has changed. is him andhas him its concern of a recession is unjustified. scarlet: what has changed in the tone of your clients? how are they asking their questions differently? >> they're still trying to understand the uncertainty, china, oil, commodity prices in general, how all of this will affect or not a recession. compared to last year, we are having more conversations about the probability of recession. that is what has changed compared to last year. the last 6-8 weeks, we have not seen a jump in the vix. vve tracked the vix of the vix, and this is intraday, nothing. one month,i went out you can still see we really haven't seen that much volatility. what is going on there. >> it's fascinating.
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volatility is up, but it's not really up that much, measured by the vix. we really have not found a great expedition for that. the best i've heard is that the market is pricing in for a one andn, but a shallow a company high volatility, but that is still up for debate. bottom,ce the 2009 we've had a series of sharp selloffs, and they've always recovered. it seems like normally there is a story that people coalesce around. 2011, the debt ceiling, the euro zone crisis. it feels like there's an absence of a clean story. usually people agree on something. does that seem that way from your perspective, people are having a hard time figuring out what is driving what? >> it does seem that way. we are looking for what can be the next big thing out there, what can send us to 2008, china, oil, dollar, and there is not a clerestory.
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-- a clear story. that is why we don't think the probability of a recession is that high. scarlet: we are in a earnings recession, earnings falling, analysts project positive sales and growth by third quarter 2016. does the recent selloff in stocks, the plunge, the nervous is, that that recovery gets pushed out further? >> there is a very interesting earnings story. it depends on which measure you look at. that is one of the big stories, not just how much earnings have fallen or not, but the fact that everyone in the market is looking at the front consensus and reported earnings. at operatingng earnings reported, and that in and of itself causes uncertainty. it is what is keeping multiple caps at low levels. scarlet: thank you so much. on aig, carlg news
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icon has declined to go on aig's board signing involvement in other companies. john paulson will be added to the board of directors. problematic are european banks? we have the three charts you can't miss next. ♪
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alix: just so problematic european banks are. scarlet: it is a technical measure that shows european banks worse off were then 2008 financial crisis. this is a relative strength index for european banks measuring market momentum.
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below 30 indicates stress and oversold conditions. we have done that several times. they've shown that stress 12 times since january. in terms of share prices, the 2012, juste august before mario draghi made a statement that he would do whatever it takes. joe: incredible. that was the peak of the , and whatever it takes has been completely erased. i find this extraordinary. there is plenty of liquidity available. alix: i'm looking at the credit default swaps for european banks versus american banks. green and red line here, that is european. blue linesand the are american. i want to blow it out for you so
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you can see them move that happened in the last few weeks. let me reset. live tv. love it. here we go. that's what you see. you have this red and green line, european, the blue and purple the american banks, and you see the difference, how much more stress and more pessimistic investors are when it comes to european banks. scarlet: it still drag down the european -- u.s. banks as well. there is a question regarding solvency. even if it does not make any sense, even if it is not a good hedge for exposure, you do it because it will offset if you're losing money on those coco bonds. coming up, are global recession fears moving from china to the s -- the u.s., and
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are they justified? ♪
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mark: first word news. -- carter calling for broad international support for the u.s. plan to defeat islamic state. he outlined the new strategy meetingefense ministers at nato headquarters. secretary carter expects more military and financial aid for the campaign. more than 20 nations are helping fight the militants in iraq and syria. big endorsements for the white house bid of john kasich, the home depot cofounder previously supported chris christie, who exited yesterday. in secondh finished
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behind donald trump in this week's new hampshire primary. italy clinton received the endorsement of a branch of the congressional black caucus. and than 40 prison guards officers in georgia indicted on charges of accepting bribes and drug trafficking. it is the latest federal crackdown on criminal activity in the state's prisons. charged were georgia department of corrections officers accused of protecting a high-level drug dealer. congress voted to permanently bar state and local governments from taxing access to the internet. the senate voted 75-20 to give final approval to the wide-ranging bill and also revamp trade laws. global news -- global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists and more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i am mark crumpton. scarlet: thank you, mark. , the indexap attempted a comeback but failed at the last minute. negative, back in the
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down 4/10 of 1%. the s&p losing one and a quarter percent. low, and then making a comeback on the headline know can make sense of on opec. opec will is perhaps consider cutting production, but shows how oversold or short the markets are when any kind of ed kind of headlines could wind up supporting markets. joe: it was surprising that oil popped as much as it did. scarlet: another headline is that global stocks have entered a bear market. this is the all country world index, and the high was last may. since then, we have fallen 20%. bearis the definition of a market. all country world index, global stocks in a bear market. joe: kind of weird we weren't already in one based on the action. alix: talking about bear
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markets, we spoke with the founder and ceo of the market analytics, and he weighed in on the markets and whether we hit bottom. >> were looking for an intraday sharp decline, then a rally of significance, maybe 40%. we are in the long-term downtrend could -- downtrend. we will see the same thing in the chinese markets. once we get our footings. alix: seeing perhaps capitulation soon. that oil could bottom as soon as today or tomorrow or even monday, and we did see oil go below technical levels and then rebound. good to watch. scarlet: metrics to keep an eye on. of globalcornerstone recession fears, but citigroup global economist says that concern is shifting towards the u.s.. peoples changed that has
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more worried about a u.s. recession? we had a special not so long ago asking about the likelihood of a recession, and almost was convinced we are not near it. suddenly the rhetoric is changing. , one things have changed is the bad news out of the u.s., moderately bad news, but bad news nonetheless on the comic -- the economic front. as we've entered this year, the data flow continues to be somewhat bad. is wearing aspect right now what is happening in financial markets and whether that is projecting future weakness or is by itself imposing conditions to be much harder. it is clearly looking worse than it was. joe: we have had this disappointing data in the u.s., tons of disappointing data around the globe, and volatility and selloff in financial markets. what you make of the fact that janet yellen didn't change her
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-- obviously see acknowledged some issues, but did not suggest anything that the fed might be inclined to slow its case -- pace at all? >> there were two aspects. to avoid sounding pessimistic. she wanted to continue to project confidence. at the same time, she does not want to front run policy, but there are questions around what the fed can do to avoid the bad outcomes. at the globalng markets and the volatility we've seen, should the fed be reacting to that? alix: yesterday we spoke with the roger farmer at ucla and said they should be listening to that. take a listen. >> if you look at the facts, what i find is that from the 1950's and before to now, the stock market is a significant factor in helping to predict future recessions, so if the
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stock market drops by 10%, you can expect the implement rate to be three percentage points higher than it was or would of been in the absence of the drop. alix: you agree? >> we are observing a crisis of confidence. anchorare looking for an to establish confidence pi would be in favor of some policy tonal that it would be -- establish confidence. i would be in favor of a policy signal. joe: solid on topline labor growth at this point in the cycle, initial claims, an indication they been moving up, but today they fell back down. solid,r sentiment data highest level in about three months. upre is certain data holding fine, particularly as it relates to labor and the consumer. arees, the conditions
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precarious, but somewhat binary. we have an aspect of the economy doing better than it was for growth, lowage unemployment, what seems to be heading. on the other hand, there are aspects more fragile and they are leading, so what the corporate sector is doing and with the financial indicators are doing seems to tell us more about the future than the labor market. scarlet: everyone is worried about a recession, but those a recession necessarily have to be devastating like 2008. you go into negative growth for a while and then bounce back, a garden-variety recession come if you will. >> i don't think we're looking at a likely recession. the recession is no longer inconceivable. the ticketing if you enter a recession, were not sure where policy ends up. there could be a recession outcome that is less bad than what people are fearing now. citigroup global economist
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sticking with us right after the break. the japanese yen climbing to a 15 month high versus the dollar. our negative rates behind this market turmoil? ♪
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scarlet: stephanie ruhle will be live from the all-star technology summit in toronto tomorrow, a great lineup of guest, starting with adam silver. will berk cuban speaking with her life at 120
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p.m. eastern time. you don't want to miss it. scarlet: it is time for the bloomberg business flash. says its fourth-quarter earnings beat analyst estimates, four cents with analyst looking for breakeven. analyst estimates were also topped by revenue. shares are climbing. scarlet: fourth-quarter earnings beat estimates largely due to solid business in las vegas, partially offset in macau. revenue fell. wynn resorts has suffered through a two-your slot. scarlet: a fourth-quarter miss for activision blizzard, earnings and revenue came up short due to lower sales of video games. it was three cents short of analyst estimates, shares declining by 15%. that is your bloomberg business flash. scarlet: "what'd you miss?"
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searching to an 15 month high. -- surging to a 15-month high. i guess was skeptical of shorting the yen after the boj move, and he was right. citigroup global economist also with us as well. with negativees interest rates have an appreciating currency? we saw the same thing today with ner?corona -- kro the japanese have been enthusiastic about pushing money overseas for years. the tales of someone investing in the brazilian riel is well known. their money at home was never that rates on domestic assets and accounts.
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it was fear of what was going on in the rest of the world. when the boj cut rates into negative territory, it was briefed because no one shipped money offshore. it isn't thought working and the rest of the world is a scary place, we've traded this very dramatic move. anybody who has been long yen is getting out of it. questions about what the boj does no come back and bite them. that is the problem. add to that the fact that three weeks ago i would've said that the yen was the cheapest of the major currencies on any fundamental equilibrium. changing quickly. and a lot of second-guessing when it comes to the bank of japan. scarlet: the former chairman of the ssa wrote that japan make the wrong move, no credible sinners in which japanese government that can be repaid in the normal sense of the word repaid. none in which with the book of the boj holdings will ever be so
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back to the private sector. the singer that reality is admitted, the sooner japan will have some chance of meeting its inflation targets and stimulating total demand rather than seeking to ship it away from other countries. deflation, japan should write off the boj's huge holdings. there is no policy or tool that can grow aggregate demand, is there? >> there aren't any conventional tools. advocates ishe that we have to work towards some sort of fiscal monetary joint action, helicopter money, the most commonly used phrase. japan has led the way in many ways, and there are elements of that that have been going on in japan that have to be part of the solution to the japanese malaise. going back over the last several years, one criticism of central banks as they are not doing anything for the economy,
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only focusing on boosting asset prices, only doing with good for the banks. now the story has shifted and people are saying that the market hates negative rates and especially banks are really in trouble under negative rates. how did we get this total flip in theme where people are worried that the central banks are going to do something that hurts everyone? >> it's partly because we have been giving them too much credit all along. we believe the quantitative easing, low rates, sending up asset prices, were going to get growth back onto its precrisis trajectory. it wasn't succeeding. they were pushing on a piece of up goes the equity market, but it makes it more volatile when it corrects. goes thehe u.k., up housing market so nobody can afford to buy a house. exaggerated hopes and expectations of what they could do, and now we are disappointed. now you are useless.
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that is equally stupid, frankly. i wish they would push so far into negative territory, reaching for a growth rate that fiscal policy might achieve, structural policy might achieve, at the central banks have no chance of reaching at this point. for us to put them on a pedestal and knocked him down does not help. alix: our negative rates at the end of the day simply a way to devalue your currency? you had a great chart that declines as rate gets cuts into negative air territory. is this a race to the bottom? >> it certainly worked that way at the beginning. as we discussed earlier, it hasn't been working. for shorter time, the yen has been appreciating, the euro appreciating.
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even in that narrow sense of weakening the exchange rate, it's not working. if you're lowering your rate and everyone else is, than the net effect is zero, even on the exchange rate. joe: should they be doing more qe? we haven't ecb meeting coming up in march. should the ecb do much bigger qe? >> i agree that the solution monetary is not more policy. it won't do the trick. there is still more action to come, and i think it will probably involve deposit rate cuts and more active purchases. alix: you're shaking your head. what you thinking? >> the problem is europe is that we have a set of rules you don't have an the united states about what you can do with fiscal , throwing more responsibility on the european central bank.
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i think they are certain to buy more assets and broaden the range of assets they buy and to go further into negative rates. i've said before that i don't rates iser european the key to a weaker euro. it is fed tightening. what we will get is an attempt the european bond market, the banks up there -- the bank sector, that are in week shape. that will help somewhat. joe: it sounds like there is a lot of agreement that we need to move beyond here on a terror policy, some hybrid policy. you see that being at all in the cards? >> no, not any time soon. we need things to get worse for people to truly consider measures they have not considering so far.
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that is partly what is worrying markets. they don't see the effective tool coming to the rescue anytime over the next couple of months. you will see measures by the ecb and a couple of weeks to stabilize sentiment. alix: negative rates don't work, is that what we are talking about? scarlet: janet yellen didn't say that. alix: neither did stanley fischer. go figure. scarlet: stay with us. after the break -- with thet happened january calls and what he's looking for for february. ♪
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scarlet: currency calls from kit .
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he went short this was bound, dollar, and swiss franc, long the japanese yen. now the picks for february. strategy.d of fx it has been a volatile month. what trading position no longer works for you? what are recommending for february? three,ou look at those three traits i discussed at the start of the year. trades i discussed at the start of the year. the swedish krona has been annihilated. the swiss franc has been on a tear. given up the swedish krona for land. i won't be talking about that. long yen against the korean won, i will change into long dollar against the korean won
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because of the gains i've seen in the japanese yen in the last month. it's not that i don't like the yen. the yen is a fine currency, and i will remain long in it. there is nohat merit in being long yen, short korean won. korea is much more directly impacted by weakness in china, by fears of capital controls and china, and if the currency were to weaken faster. we will see what happens when the stock market opens again on monday in china. that'll be the trader have against the u.s. dollar, to benefit from that. i would expect that to continue. on the: you have a trade pound, shorting it first at the dollar. where are we in the brexit debate? people are questioning whether there is global recession in the cards, does brexit become a bigger issue? >> i think briggs it remains as
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a source of massive uncertainty. brexit remains as a source of massive uncertainty. a vote to leave the european with everybody revising down rate expectations, economy slowing, and a big current account deficit, a cocktail that i would love you to get the pound up before i go skiing. but i am bearish about it. joe: what are some of the em currencies that everyone hated last year, can those continue to outperform? both theruggling with brazil,n ringgit and but i would be short malaysia. i don't think we're out of the
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woods on china at all. quick to shortty that one. discussed it.u i was watching the show a couple of days ago, and i would rather be long the russian than the brazilian riel at this point. money coming in. a lot of people were short brazil and long mexico, and have been getting out of that trade, reversing it quickly in the last week. alix: what is your favorite currency to shirt -- short on lower oil prices? >> probably the mexican peso at this point. it held up well. if you look at how much it held up against resell, the russian ruble -- against brazil and the russian ruble, an economy with some momentum.
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it has been the darling of the foreign exchange market. i think that is the one that gets weaker. alix: thank you so much. good to see you. what you need to know to gear up for tomorrow's trading day. that is next. ♪
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scarlet: i am scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" governor talking about half and now. don't miss retail sales out tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. increase, so how is that consumer doing? joe: tomorrow at 10:00 a.m., consumer sentiment from the university of chicago michigan.
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one area where we are not seeing the market selloff or the slowdown hit. we will see if that continues. alix: that is all for "what'd you miss?" thank you for watching
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♪ john: i'm john heilemann. mark: i'm mark halperin. with all due respect to all those candidates who are claiming others are going negative, going negative against you still counts as going negative. ♪ mark: what's up from the walkie? well, it's here -- from milwaukee? it is here where bernie sanders and hillary clinton will debate tonight. we will have speculation on their tactics in just a moment. but first, with iowa and new hampshire in the rearview mirror, and with early voting states coming up soon,


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