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tv   Countdown  Bloomberg  February 18, 2016 1:00am-2:31am EST

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>> date with destiny. david cameron heads to brussels for a huge reform deal. >> the latest minutes show officials already signaling when they may scale back on the projections. >> china produces a price index for 47 months. second largest economy. >> welcome to countdown. >> it is 6:00 in the morning in
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london. because we aret have one ofand we the biggest in europe and the largest hotel operator. withuch has this delivered 244 million? miss is a little bit of a against estimates. ceo has been in the post and they have been revamping instead of cutting costs in china. it is taking on some the upscale brands and requires a hotel reservation services.
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that is the background. >> we have a host of other reports. let's talk about the markets. the markets have risen for three straight days. before we went on the christmas holidays, i want to show you the breakdown of the relationship and this is the ironclad thetionship and they are euro stoxx 50 and they are all at a panic in correlation with the fever pitch and the 15 year high is dropping. sync, asfalling out of you said. during the panic, they had been moving in sync and they are reducing among the assets. is thes been happening
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four days do not make a year. >> it is four days of hope. >> let's check in on the risk and see what is happening in markets. this is in conjunction with the is drivingnd it markets in the short-term. yen and there is a question with a hundred 30 by year end. the bank of japan has negative interest rates and they have pushed for an asset buying. this goes back to a point asterday is that you need step back with equities and it will be a case with a correlation. you could get between 170 and 180. >> there is weakness and the australian dollar and some are saying there have been really
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strong numbers and this may be getting back to something more sensible. let's get the first word news. >> thank you. david cameron heads to brussels today. deal he can put before the british people. if he succeeds, it would be a four-month referendum campaign. the growth and the path of interest rates. about a serieses of drags in productions and the chief concern is china. the cpi rose from a year earlier with 1.6%.
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the producer index fell. the declines went to a record 47th. the latest trade data underscores the weakest and exports sank in 2009 for the fourth straight month of decline. and it made ad $5.7 billion trade deficit. >> the explosion in the turkish capital and a convoy military vehicle was stopped. the president of turkey condemned the attack as beyond all moral boundaries and said that turkey will find those who are responsible and step up the fight against terrorism. the aussie dollar has lifted. gain andmists expect a
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they are struggling to support growth among wages and weak commodity prices. the global news is powered by journalist from around the world. >> thank you very much. we have some formation of a rebound. we are standing by in asia with the latest. >> the formation of the rebound is taking root and it is in all major markets in the region. china andmbers out of the stoxx at a three-week high on the composite. the earlier gain is up here in hong kong. and this mirrors what we are seeing and a nice rally with investors not buying into the
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risk adverse and a big move in oil having a huge impact on the oil producers and we saw the chinese majors in some cases and we can take a look at how they are trading. there, you see it. higher fromove galaxy entertainment and you saw it up with china in a healthy advance. it was down early in the week and it is down again. the shares are under a bit of pressure. this outlook has been positive optimistically -- optimistically read the stimulus and we are seeing shares rebounding with 7000 jobs last month.
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that was unexpected and had an impact. we are seeing the commodity stories playing through with 14% in that session. commodities a focus of investors and we are watching emerging-market currencies that have been big performers in the past 24 hours. the regional benchmark is up and over 2%. >> thank you. the u.k. minister faces his counterpart and it is on. merkel sets out her stance in the speech yesterday. it is in the national interests of britain to remain in the european union.
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we always made it clear that we are working for results with germany and all of your -- all of europe profiting from it. >> standing by and brussels, days, whatng off two are the remaining sticking points? it appears to be three. the first concerns to what extent the banks are confined by rules with regulations and the conversation about non-euro countries being bound by the countries agreed to. you remember how david cameron and it is athe caps thing they want to shield the british banks from. on the other hand, they want to
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make sure there is not a competitive advantage out of this and that the principle of the single market is maintained. the other issue is migrations gettingants in britain social welfare benefits they are getting at the same levels. david cameron wants to see that cut and wants them at the standards of living front -- like the countries they are from. suit aftert follow britain gets this provision of accommodating their demand. there also is the extent that all of this has to be enshrined in treaties. -- there is a lot of goodwill out there. as recently as last night, the president of the union was
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writing to the countries that arrived and said there was no guarantee they will get one. we will wait and see how the timing hands out before any decision-making takes place. let's bring in the director from financial consulting. great to see you. are you watching nervously the volatility? >> anything that generates the uncertainty about the outlook. haseconomic role in europe assets of all kinds and sterling . that is what we are looking for with the negotiations going on and the uncertainty on whether to stay or to leave.
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the referendum, in the event we stay in, there will be a rally and, in the event that we leave, we are looking at 2-3 years of uncertainty. >> he has a considerable challenge. tomorrow,today or going into saturday morning, he has a tough job ahead with capital economics and independent research. issues a real zeitgeist with immigration and it is about a miss perfect -- misperception with what happens. they add about half a percent to the industrial position. misnomer. great
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a lot of this is not from succession countries. a lot of this is not from the european union. -- within the the european union, it is not all from their. my company -- a challenge? we are assessed with this in the country. >> i think so. all the evidence we had in the overwhelmingly shows that effectivens with immigration is positive on per capita and the problem is that aree are people who reconciling those sides and there are people who lose out.
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>> if you are looking for signs appetite, aptitude -- how do you do that in the short-term? the numbers bounce around all over the place and you need a lot of rearview mirror stuff. it is likely that we will not really know the damage done, even if we set in. is a thing with foreign and it that is mixed up is difficult to tease out the fundamentals. it is foreign or to mastic themal coming and both of will be depressed, intuitively. we want to hide the truth about that until afterwards. >> my eyes popped at this.
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, ithe united kingdom accounts for 46% of the investments and the trades have been lowered by 50%. make anybody would of a rational mind reconsider a position on brexit. if you consider the thing, you might. yes. i think it is hard to avoid concluding the net economic loss of the united kingdom and there and, onr considerations the economic side, it was probably a net loss.
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it is hard to read and we do not know what it would mean. >> the negotiation would be built in. us a littlewith later on in the program. >> anything that breaks, he will be on that. first, we get the from walmart before the markets open for trade. >> the ecb publishes the accounts from the governing council's january meeting. >> later in the afternoon, the leaders begin the summit in brussels where the renegotiations on british membership takes center stage and that kicks off at 4:00. brexit. >> i heard that. we will see. 16 minutes past 6:00. more on the minutes after the break. ♪
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>> welcome back. we have breaking news for you. let's start with food and drink. year of sales is coming and this is an organic sales number that they look at. 4.2% andcoming in at is in line with what the market is expecting. analysts suggest they may move the target and they are saying the organic growth will be in line and the dividend comes in in-line with what the markets expected. 15.4% andte was for the sales come at 80.8 billion. cream.bout the ice
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>> i am hungry. across-the-board the numbers and they are coming in above estimates with the full numbers and coming in a touch above the estimates. so far, so good. they have substantial cost base and benefited and need to get a deal with productivity, if they want to compete with the biggest airline's carriers and they have been struggling after the efforts to push through led to shocking scenes in the company
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says they need to get a deal, if they want to be able to compete with the gulf rivals. >> thank you. seems in japan, as it they boosted the demand and the investment banking is the second largest lender and they employ 75 people in japan. and tradingsales operations. and analyst will pay a penalty and the regulators claim he issued a recommendation at odds with personal opinion. buying recommended shares of a retailer and colleagues were told that he did .ot downgrade apple rejected a quart order to
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help investigators unblock a cell phone. it was published on the website that the fbi was seeking a new version of the operating system that would give access to the aivate data and it was called chilling attack on civil liberties. >> thank you very much. officials are signaling they may lower the forecast for growth with interest rates when they get together next month. >> they were worried about a concernf drags and the was china with volatilities in markets. said, doeshat was
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this mean the focus is how the rate hikes in the fed deliver this year? >> it is markets and the concerns with the emerging economies and the changing views with how they paid respects to the economy. the underlying strength of the economy has not changed and the markets are fine. manufacturing is a small part of the economy and they knew that. what is going on on the consumer side is that confidence is pretty high and it is diverted iswhat is happening and it lower and more cautious. >> you say they are being economicnd i get the
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argument. it is not just china. they are being bullied. i think they are being pragmatic. >> what are you talking about here? >> the slowdown in the emerging markets. it may have small ramifications with global sentiment, would you agree question mark >> why not globally? it is driving down oil prices. seehe concern is that they what is happening and the impact on the equity prices, which is negative. >> there is a decline in stocks and they are worried. >> in that aspect of it. the impact the slowdown will have on the economy and the u.s. starts to see that pull away indices.r equity
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>> we are looking at yesterday sees --e of the index indices. some have this -- some of the surprises are the upside. there is expectations. fearey were dominated by and there was always a factor in the markets that comes into play with either greed or fear. there are people out there who recognize this as a buying opportunity and should because of the impact on the united states with the weaker oil prices and the imports in emerging markets is positive. stay with us.
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there is more to come. >> up next, going for gold and the precious metal is up. about the results. stay with us on countdown.
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>> it is 7:30 in brussels. let's get the first word news with caroline hyde. >> david cameron heads to brussels and seeks to cap months of negotiations. if he succeeds, he fires a starting gun on a referendum campaign. the federal reserve officials are signaling why they may lower forecast for growth, inflation, and future interest rates. minutes said there should be
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worried about disruptions that this year. increases the chief concern is china. in price inflation is up january. the cpi rose from a year earlier, compared to 1.6%. the price index fell and it extended declines. data, theyst trade underscored weakness and the exports sank the most since 2009. the imports plunged and were billion left a $5.7 trade deficit. attack in on could. ankara. the turkish president condemned
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the attack is beyond all human and moral boundaries and said that they will find those responsible and step up the fight against terrorism. jobs were lost. economists have been expecting a gain. there is falling business investment and weak commodity prices. >> thank you. stay with us. you have been keeping an eye on the markets. >> i want to focus on a significant rebound. how quickly we sank into the bad indexory and this is the and how you track global stocks. entered a territory that
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was lower. up, suddenly, a ratcheting over the last days and we are coming off of the bear market and we are seeing the investor appetite fueled. increases and the they are delaying rate increases and overall sentiment. >> we have talked about a breakdown in correlation and we have oil at 0.8%. and this one is brent picking up.
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interestingly, will we get to the technical resistant level? if we can get the contract above $36, we may breakout of the doldrums and see a significant pickup because iran supports the freezing of the levels. russia is at record highs. will we see tangible differences ? it is out. it is coming down. >> this is what we are tracking in europe. and you see how it is starting to come down. it is a sigh of relief for many. company focus in on a
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that has reported numbers today. 2016 has been tumultuous for the markets and a big winner has been gold. will that sustained? we have a ceo with us. great to have you on. let's get into the numbers -- the numbers. my question is the worst of the write-downs. or a trought more in write-downs? >> to clarify, we have not written down anything and we have written down and investment in the philippines that we have and it is a 40% investment and, at this stage, it will not be developed because of the copper
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and the gold prices and we have an asset that is losing money and the core assets will generate a big cash flow and have not been impaired. at current prices, we do not see impairment, at this stage. we would have to reevaluate. at this stage, i am confident that we have taken hard hits and the write-down is fairly modest. with what is around, it is also quite modest. >> you have a weakening in currency and i know that is not the bulk of the operations. to exploreempt you further operations in south africa or are you looking to build up the business? >> not at all.
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mind and itoject in is only one of the eight operations in south africa and one of the largest resources in the world. like to further explain -- expand the footprint. and it is becoming more competitive with the access over the last six months. here ofve a headline gold going shopping. this is your by sign. this is ank that number of defaults with pressure coming from some of the higher
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cost producers? do you think the market will see , whichll by the wayside are be good for you and a lost for them? sector of the mining industry has been on the front we started around that in 2015 and got a lot of restructuring. and theot the only ones concerns are much greater and i think there are opportunities out there with assets trading netw value and multiples of to shore up
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operations. we have to make sure that we get the best out of our operations. it is a conservative strategy int we think will serve well the long term. >> thank you for joining us. >> let's bring in the director. and it to the right side is where the money flowed in. talk to us about the perception it may go to the market.h the what is your view? >> we have been highlighting this for a long time and it has slowed and is not a question of if it will. 2.5% in theat
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latest. >> that is far away from the numbers we have seen. why would you go that extreme? electricity production and what is really coming outth the gdp at 2.4%. lending, this is a positive sign and you worried about the size of the sector in china. >> it is colossal. this would have to be a case in the economy and it is incredibly huge with the issue that there is a new splurge of lending in is shadow banks and it
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with a bet they and they even more and it was atended buildup of capacity and infrastructure. in the short-term, it would be positive for commodity prices and, in long-term, make prices worth -- worse. >> you had a conversation with the banks analyst and they said that the potential with the losses in the banking system in china exceeds the losses in the credit crunch and to not worry situationina has this . >> i do not concur and of the , ones will come to pass
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way or another. and it isa capacity because of the u.k. exposure to china with the chinese banking sector. those are large numbers and the sector is so central and could unravel. .> with hsbc >> i remember when they raised the red flag around the household in the u.s. and they got it signaled. >> the leverage levels are over 200%. >> that is impressive. that is 24 hours ago. >> thank you for joining us this morning. >> now, from google to facebook. the big names are rallying around tim cook after he
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resisted a court order that the --d help of taking blocking the government. richard kramer joins us in the studio. great to see you. thank you. it is a newsworthy subject of apple and you have followed the industry for a long. they have gathered around cook and created a backdoor into the technology. think that it is admirable that you have a silicon valley giant coming to support privacy in this way and i would say that, for most of the company, it is a four letter word and they want to protect privacy as long as they exclusively use the product and services of the company.
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extract information multifaceted then just the fbi versus apple. >> you look at the industry and these companies that split in various ways and acronyms with various sides. what is the shift? is there going to be a shift? we are considering big valuations. >> not entirely and the top companies in the world last year, apple, amazon, google, facebook, and microsoft, they spent in research and development and how the resources to pursue multiple angles in the industry and companies cannot keep up. ofebook has the equivalent
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sales with twitter and more than that. away.s keeps the others >> absolutely. not only do they have resources, but the industry is relatively young and there is not the management talent with changes seeanagement and you google, facebook, these companies with stable management. as critical as that with the young talent? is it you fullness or lack of experience? >> it is almost the opposite. we had all this discussion of the unicorn and billion dollar valuations for private companies and it is clear that many of them are having down rounds,
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some of them are struggling. you will see large technology companies snatch these companies of the scrapheap, where they did not have the management talent. >> in terms of the big names you reference, you mentioned how much they spend on research and atelopment is what they look in the future. it may look different in 10 years and there will be companies. the reason they are spending the business model is incredibly profitable. if you take a look at google, they generated with the core and these areted
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severalcal outliers by standard deviations and it makes sense that they put the profits back in the business to figure out where the next big thing comes. it is a business model like that. see the balance and this is a step to play a company that has spent money on research and moment. >> for companies like apple and a hundred $53ave billion in cash and the majority almosts offshore and becomes a liability and not an asset. apple, it is not
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a founder controlled company and it dictates how the policies will go >> stay with us. we will have the tech story after a short break. a new system.
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>> welcome back. this is countdown. >> thank you. name -- hiringer in japan and they are boosting
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investor demand. they employ 75 in japan and it may increase by the end of the year. rigged -- recalling vehicles. fatal incident and canada and another that resulted in fatal injury in the u.s.. a $100,000 penalty. claim withregulator a buying resurrect -- recommendation. they recommended buying shares of big lots. internally, he did not downgrade the company because he wanted to maintain the relationship with management.
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>> thank you very much. a tech analyst is with us. talk about a pet project. youpendent research and founded an independent research house. you have worked for the big banks and you have seen it. looking at linkedin, you had so many analysts saying that this was a great company. andou look at stocks analysts covering the stocks. 65% and there is a systemic problem that analysts are there to promote the banking services and they are not doing real research for the investor
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community. >> there was a story about a deutsche bank analyst who had and do regulator sometimes see this happening? haveu have to ask why they stocks rated and they are not going to perform and why the conference calls to send into a charade were analysts get asked the same questions and they congratulate the company on a wonderful quarter. >> do you think that there is a level of deception in the market ? do you think they are lying? >> they know exactly what the job is, to induce volatility in the market. sawad one of these and you
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a change in behavior not happen. it will be interesting when they research the budgets and if they byt to pay with recommendations, when it is clear that they want to avoid the blowup. there is a need for the independent research. are working on .he integrated >> you have the conference call and the research with bullet it is designed to
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induce volatility and -- >> we will see the data on linkedin and you can see the and it isming out more than 80%. a company with a stock plunge. investors activists to a better job than analysts? it proactively engages and activists activities. >> thank you for coming in. quest.ave cameron's
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>> we will get a few later on in countdown and talk about what -- brexit would mean for the irish.
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jonathan: david cameron goes to dealels for an eu reform he can put to the people in britain. anna: officials are already signaling why they might scale back on their rate hike projections. index for aurprise record 47th straight month. goldman sachs says, don't panic about growth in the world's second-largest economy. welcome to "countdown.
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i manus cranny. anna: i'm an edwards and we have a bit of breaking news to bring you. we have got various numbers coming through. we have got profit before tax at 1.0 9 billion pounds. in terms of the context here, a lot of europe's biggest defense companies seem to be waiting for a change in the budget constraints of some of the western purchasers and of course, increased conflict in the middle east. that often contributes to the earnings of these businesses. the euro fighter airplane is reporting their numbers this morning. november that their figures with the unchanged. we will see how that shapes up, in terms of the full year eps
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number. we will wait for a little more detail on this. manus: when you look at the it, bullard has been on the top. it is not the time to raise rates. we have seen equity futures indicating higher in terms of europe. opening.ot a higher we are up by 2/10 of 1% in london, paris, and frankfurt. we have a nice rally in the price of oil. if you look at the u.s. board, we can talk about that. the fed is concerned about china and tightening spreads. we have a lovely graphic for you. it is about a dislocation. in with oil,ocked global stocks, euro stoxx 50.
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we were moving with oil. the movement between equities and oil was that a 15 year high. four days in a row that trend has broken. the question is, how has a broken and can the s&p focus on what is good in america and not what is going on and the outside? anna: we have some news out of vodafone, the u.k. mobile phone operator. they say they are going to raise 2.9 billion pounds with a bond issue. the potential to buy back shares following conversion. are convertible into shares, representing 5% of the capital base. that is an interesting move coming from vodafone. manus: i think that by back, what they are saying in terms of the buyback is significant. it will be following this conversion. let's get a little bit more detail as the headlines print.
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let's get you to bloomberg first word news. caroline hyde is here. caroline: david cameron goes to brussels today, following months of negotiations on eu membership terms. he will finely stop a four month referendum campaign. federal reserve officials are already signaling why they might lower growth interest rates. minutes from the january meeting and sure they were worried about drahgi's.f dan mulhall interruptions. china's consumer price inflation picked up in germany. in january from a year earlier, compared to 1.6% in december.
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japan's latest trade data shows continued weakness. exports sank 30%. this is the fourth straight month of decline. aports plunged 18%, leaving $5.7 million trade deficit. at least 28 people have been killed in an explosion and the turkish capital. the attack targeted a convoy of military vehicles. 61 other people were wounded. the president condemned the andck as "beyond all moral human boundaries." he says they will step up to find those responsible. unexpectedly jumped in january. most a thousand jobs were lost. on economist had been expect -- economists had been expecting a gain of 13,000.
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this is followed by week business investments and weak commodity prices. this comes to you from more than 150 newsrooms from around the world. anna: we have been expecting some sort of raising of cash from the likes of vodafone. vodafone is paying one billion euros to liberty global for the joint venture they are doing. there have been a lot of talk about the money raised around that. is whetherested liberty global and vodafone will do something substantial together. that is a big, big bond issue. that is 5%. anna: let's get an update on the asian markets. reporter: hello, everyone. we can see shares advancing in the asian pacific. a 2% move higher on the regional benchmark here.
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the selloff we saw last week appears to be overdone. amongs the sentiment investors. given the increased central-bank activity in china. if we look at what is happening in china, we do see the shanghai composite has just switched over to the red. it has been generally in positive territory for the most part of this day. that is the story across the asian pacific, very healthy gains. japan, as well as sydney, yorkie performers. we had trade data in japan the underscore the challenges the government is facing. we saw the biggest drop in trade data since 2009. we do have the latest cpi numbers out of china, which gives hope for producer prices. cpi continues to be effected by food prices. oil shares, as you might imagine, are doing quite well.
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on the back of course, of the saudi, russia, and the other's deal to cap out, at least temporarily. with galaxyig gains entertainment. minors moving in australia today. we will be watching for the central bank, likely to take action in terms of interest rates. it would be at the latest in indonesia to deal with interest rates to take them down, to be looking overall uncertainty about the global economy. emerging-market currencies have done very well in light of the fact that the fed may slow down its pace of tightening, given uncertainty with the global economy. that was reflected in the fed meeting minutes, which investors in asia today pay very close attention to. anna: thank you very much.
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it is crunch time for david cameron. he is going to brussels to face his european counterpart in the pressure is on for him to bring home a deal that keeps britain in the eu. talkedangela markel about the issue in a speech yesterday. convinced that it is in our national interest for britain to remain an active part of a strong and successful european union. we as the government always made clear that we work for results that not only britain, but germany and all of europe, profits from. manus: that was from angela merkel. ryan chilcote is in brussels. ryan, sticking points? there was a great story this morning about controlled explosions. what are the controlled explosions, ryan? what is going on? ryan: i think there are three
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bones of contention. the first would have to do with what extent countries within the eu that don't use the euro would have to comply with rules dictated by countries that do use the euro. in terms of the banking sector, another way to understand that is to what extent british banks would have to comply, or be bound to, rules composed by brussels. perhaps the most contentious is the issue of migration and migrants. there are about 2 million migrants from the european union working in the u.k. right now with about 34,000 children living outside the u.k., for which they are claiming benefits. david cameron and the said the benefit will be paid for those 34,000 children at a cost of living index based on how much it
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costs in the countries they come from, as opposed to the cost of living in the u.k. othein other words, they would get less money. eastern european countries look prepared to let that happen. however, not for those existing 34,000 kids. the final bone of contention would be exactly to what extent all of this has to be enshrined in eu treaties. when you have 28 countries that is not easy. none of this stuff is really, really big. some of this stuff is really a emotive. they could cause problems today. late last night it was said that there was no guarantee that we would get a deal at this summit. anna: thank you very much, ryan. upe is what else is coming
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on your day ahead. manus: first up, we get numbers from walmart before the u.s. market kicks into action. publishes its account of the january meeting. manus: a little bit later in the afternoon, the eu leaders begin a two day summit in brussels. p.m. icks off at 4:00 if they make it through to the morning, they get an english breakfast, i am told. anna: i wonder if it is contingent on the outcome of the conversation. ireland we speak to the ambassador to the u.k. about the impact of a possible brexit. ♪
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anna: welcome back. this is "countdown." let's get to the bloomberg
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business flash with caroline. caroline: the boj's negative interest rates are boosting investor demands. the investment bank is the second-largest lender. it currently employs 75 people in japan. they might increase that number by 10 by the end of the year. a former deutsche bank analyst will pay a $100,000 penalty and be banned from securities industries for one year. he issued a recommendation at odds from his personal opinion. he recommended buying shares of big lots in a march 2012 report while telling colleagues that he did not downgrade the company because he wanted to maintain his relationship with its management. he did not admit or deny wrongdoing. a request byected u.s. investigators to help unlock an iphone used by
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shooter farook. they are seeking a new version of the security system that would circumvent the iphone. he calls the order a dangerous precedent and a chilling attack on civil liberties. toyota is recalling almost million sport-utility vehicle's worldwide after seatbelts separated in one fatal incident and canada. that is your bloomberg business flash. it rose by 1.8% in january from a year earlier. that was compared to 1.6% in december. anna: they are extending those declines to a record 47 months now. let's get out to our beijing bureau.
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good to see you. will this inflation data offer policymakers any relief? what is the background? >> there is really not a lot of good news with these numbers. the cpi is dominated by food prices, which traditionally rise right before the lunar new year holiday. there is not much encouragement to be taken there. and then when you look at the ppi situation, that is possibly due to low commodity prices. but it reflects low capacity in some of these industries, such as steel making and finding. there is not a lot of demand and prices are falling as a result. we can see a lot of the symptoms of the bigger issues we know byut with this economy beset overcapacity and not seeing that pickup in demand from consumers at home that would really push prices higher. manus: what is behind this prolonged drop in cpi?
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what is the real impact? mean, it is really another warning bell for the government that when it looks that this issue of overcapacity, it is going to me to take action because companies in these industries -- steel production, mining, the heavy industries -- they really are suffering. they have expressed an intent to move quickly on overcapacity, but this is one of the central issues of their beset by problems, including the invested interest of these companies that don't want to be shut down. they like the positions they are in. it points to the challenges the government faces as it seeks to transform and shape up its economy. anna: nick, thanks for joining us. david cameron's quest or a new european union enters its final stages today in brussels. the prime minister hopes to seal a deal he can take back to u.k.
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voters. manus: let's bring in dan mulhall, the ireland ambassador to the u.k. you foror, thank taking the time today. two days of negotiations are about to begin. the relationship between the u.k. and ireland -- there is no loyalty lost here. bananad be the biggest .kin for ireland a banana skin and a threat to growth. dan: we want britain to remain in the european union because of the unique relationship between the countries. the open border between north and south and the fact that we like the way in which britain contributes to the european union alongside ireland for the past 40 years. it is good for us to have britain alongside us and we
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would miss britain from the european union. we would have to cope of course, if the british people decided to leave. anna: you would have to cope. what would the brexit look like and what would it do to the irish economy? dan: that is one of the difficulties. nobody can be sure what the post-brexit world will look like. some say it would be much the same as it is now. view, there would be changes and those changes would be detrimental to the european union, to the u.k., and to ireland. that is a matter that can only be decided after the referendum and after britain decides to leave. we will continue the journey as partners within the eu as ireland. manus: does ireland to support the main pillars david cameron is trying to focus on, in terms of sovereignty, and i am focusing on that.
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ireland has a very close relationship with the eu. his island behind all of these pillars of renegotiation for cameron? >> because of our unique relationship with britain and because of our strong desire that it should remain in the european union, we have been among the more supportive. i would expect the same to be the case this evening. of course, we have had our issues and concerns. we have had to look at the implications of these proposals, but in general, we have continued to be quite supportive and we are optimistic and hopeful that there will be a positive outcome. anna: that is in general. what about specifics? there would be benefits payable to new arrivals. in ireland's case, the sense is that some of these new rules would not apply to irish people coming to live in the u.k. what is ireland's position there?
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>> island has the same percentage of people born as britain has. but that issue of migration has not been a major public concern in ireland. generally speaking, we have done very well, despite the large numbers they came after the recession of the states from central and eastern europe. the issue of irish people living in britain, that is of course, something that predates the european union on many years. we have of course, discussed this issue with the british government. depending on what the outcome of this process might be, it is a matter that will have to be continued to be discussed with britain and other member states in order to ensure our irish people will continue to enjoy the same advantages. anna: is that not guarantee just yet? >> the outcome of these
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negotiations is not known. we don't know precisely. there is still some work to be done on the emergency break, how exactly it would operate, its duration, whether it would be available to all member states or not. it is a complex area and i don't think you can give definitive answers at this stage when negotiations are still underway. but we still have in mind and we have talked to britain already because i think it is recognized on both sides. this is a particular issue which is a little bit separate from the issue of migration from other european countries, which is a more recent phenomenon for britain manus: one of the worst important issue -- one of the most important issues is the bilateral trade between britain. free trade agreement needs to be arranged with europe. what ireland consider a bilateral trade agreement
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outside something that may go on with the rest of europe? i call it the martin scholz/ >> the common correction policy is one of the small number of areas of exclusive eu confidence. if version were to leave the european union -- if britain were to leave the european union, it would become a third country and therefore, there would have to be a negotiation between the european union and britain. it would not be between the 27 states and britain. negotiation be a and it would be done by the commission and it would have to be approved by the member states in council with a combination of qualified majority voting in some areas. it would not be easy. ireland will be looking to have the best possible relationship with britain in terms of its
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trade. we would not have a say in this, because we would have to remain in the european union and we would be no go shooting as part of it. anna: you say you would survive if there was a brexit. is this an opportunity for ireland to attract more investment from the u.s.? >> there is no doubt there would be some benefit in terms of companies moving to us. we are not focused on that because we have done our assessment, we have done our analysis, and we have come to the conclusion that the best possible outcome for ireland would be for britain to remain with ireland within the european union to continue that partnership that we have developed over the past 40 years. it has enabled the countries to work together very closely and to help to bring peace and stability to northern ireland. manus: thank you very much for joining us this morning, dan
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mulhall. anna: that will do it for "countdown." up next, "on the move." ♪
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manus: good morning. 7:30 in london. i am guy johnson. oil is continuing to rise. that is definitely the story of the last 48 hours. as the narrative really changed that much? correlations between oil and equities are breaking down. we will talk about that a little bit later on the program. the fed is very much in focus, the minutes from last night reflect the narrative we have had out over the last few days. even from yellen, to be honest. it will be interesting to see where the dot plots go next and what happens with the dollar.

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