i manus cranny. anna: i'm anna edwards. let's think about what is going on in france right now. number the full year euros, a at 3.43 little bit shy of the estimates. ebit came in at 4.1 billion euros, short of the estimate of 4.3 8 billion euros. a lot of focus is going into this on the outlook and they are confirming that outlook today. for is the overall guidance 2016. they describe their 2015 numbers as solid 2015 results. we know how details on some of the individual aircrafts. updates on the profiting
cash forecasts. progress or disposals will be of interest, as book comments on the civil is the -- as will comments on the civil aviation cycle. the cfo will be talking to bloomberg little bit later on during programming. that will be on bloomberg go. manus: if you are a shareholder with airbus, you get a dividend of 1.3. i know you have got the consensus estimate in their. -- in there. one velocity changes in sterling, they can really get going. he talked about the northern crisis, a 15% drop in sterling. that is something we have seen
over the past 40-50 years. this is when momentum changes and when velocity breaks off. crisis backsterling in the late 90's, -- i'm sorry, the early 90's. we can to the propensity for a volatility. there is a title on this story, which is sterling can travel a long way in a crisis. anna: where do economists think it is going to go? 40 have dipped below $1. overnight. 29 out of 34 economists say they see it going up. that is a 1995 level. thatve to wonder whether will change as we get closer to the 23rd of june.
manus: let's talk about the risk assetts. iran said something would freeze over before they froze production. he is in the press, defending his negative rates. the market says, we are not really believing you. anna: let's get to the bloomberg first world ms. full stop good morning -- let's get to the bloomberg first world news. nejra: a proposal by saudi arabia and russia to freeze output. the iranian oil minister said the plan to cap output at january levels puts unrealistic demands on his country. high-cost producers should bear the burden of producing the current surplus. saysgan investment bank
revenue from sales and trading has tumbled 20% this year. the news provides an early gauge of the pain inflicted on wall street. jamie dimon thinks things will improve. >> i am not going to guess the future. i don't. i don't have to worry about that. we are going to do almost the exact same stuff, anyway. personal belief is this will settle out. reservee federal vice-chairman stanley fischer says he remains uncertain of whether the market turmoil signals global economic woes that could slow the u.s. economy. policymakers should be prepared to consider raising interest rates in march. speaking to bloomberg radio, she said her output for solid growth
this year remains intact. >> we again, are moving from extraordinary accommodations in this economy to something more neutral. the fomc said it will do that in a very gradual fashion. how thewhen a look at economy is performing, and i am looking at the consumer and i am looking at that labor market. we are at 4.9% unemployment. inflation looks to be stable and moving in the right direction. it should absolutely be on the table for consideration. anna: the number of cats kept as pets is overtaking that of dogs in japan. meanwhile, the number of children continues to drop steadily. cats are finding favor because dogs are more demanding and need to be walked. day,l news, 24 hours a powered by 2400 journalists in
more than 150 news bureaus around the world. manus: that is simply the best story of the day. i am thinking about getting a dog. haidi is not sure interested. let's find out. good morning. -- i: i him so interested. am so interested. cat food brands will probably be the only ones seeing positive results today. it was a down day. this is the new normal. certainly, that daily fixing was the weakest since before the chinese new year. that is affecting the fx sp ace. the yen is trading at that $1.11
handle. the nikkei is closing down by 9/10 of 1%. we have a lot of skittishness when it comes to what investors are doing. the worst losses coming from sydney. we are extending losses into the close. energy financials really dragging their. take a look at how china is looking. they are off by 7/10 of 1%. the hang seng is down by 1/6 of 1%. chinese stocks are falling in hong kong. despite fourth-quarter gdp coming in better than expected, down trend. it has another safety recall potential, making a bit of a mess in the u.s. it is going to a management reshuffle. 4.7%.cue is down by
i am going to leave it there and send it back to you guys. manus: haidi, thank you. let's get the latest on the u.s. elections. donald trump has won the caucus in nevada. he said more votes will come his way when other candidates drop out. donald trump: tonight we had 45 % and tomorrow you will be hearing, you know, if they could just take the other candidates and add them up -- if you could add them up, because you know the other candidates amount to 55%. they keep forgetting that when people drop out, we are going to get a lot of votes. [cheers] now: megan murphy joins us
on the line from las vegas. good evening, perhaps where you are. bring us up to date on the latest news. megan: talk about the new normal. a stunning 20 point victory for donald trump tonight. that was the loudest i have d, then trump crow that is saying a lot. that means the establishment lane of this race, that lane remains fractured even with the withdrawal of jeb bush. ted cruz seems to be fading right now. he did not have the performance he wanted here or in south carolina. as we look forward to super tuesday, people are starting to understand that donald trump looks very difficult to stop/ manus: in his victory speech here megan, he really hit hard at cruz. is that his, do you think that where his victory is aimed
because that is what he is most concerned about? megan: idol think he is concerned about -- i don't think he is concerned about cruz. i think he knows ted cruz is weakening. if you look at the demographics in south carolina and you look at the demographics out of nevada, donald trump has won the evangelical vote. has early returns show he a won among latinos. that is extraordinary when you consider he is running against two latinos. he is attracting a broad part of the party. that is something people never anticipated, that he would be able to stitch together a broad constituency of voters. people like ted cruz and marco rubio can't get enough support in the segments they are targeting. anna: it seems he is ripping of the rule -- he is ripping up the rule book.
manus: iran said a proposal to freeze output was , s, in their words, "ridiculous." iran said, this is not necessarily going to be an event. >> you have to look at the detail, or at least what the iranian oil minister is suggesting when he says this deal is worthy of ridicule. he does not mind the idea of the russians and the salaries asaudi's freezing their output. what he does not like is the idea of iran joining in with this freeze. he is delighted if the russians and saudi's do it on their own. this is really not much of a phrase, however and is not do a
lot for the market. it is contingent on other included, iran participating. the saudi iranian oil minister said that freeze is the beginning of a long process where these oil producers will room,asion, get in a yell at one another, and then maybe later in the year we will get some kind of a deal. anna: we thought this might open the way for more cooperation. but we are still sitting on a supply glut. >> we saw that yesterday. api sent some numbers out that set the glut in the united states rose by 7 million barrels. bloomberg's own survey suggests byt stockpiles rose 3.5 million barrels.
l get the numbers around 3:30 ondon time, people will be trading on that. the most interesting, yesterday said, it does not make sense for us low cost producers to subsidize high cost producers. there is a reckoning coming and if you have a problem with low prices created by this supply glut, you have three options. one, you lower your costs. two, you borrow some cash. or three, you liquidate. manus: let's bring in the head of market strategy. when you for these differences, giving warning to high cost producers, the differences between iran, saudi arabia, and russia -- oil is under such pressure and through the prism of what you do, that takes us
straight into the correlation between oil and foreign exchange. >> oil and the equity markets are highly correlated right now. the world is watching oil prices. yes, in emerging markets, currencies will play a specific role in this elongation of low commodity prices. it has taken its toll on government revenues and increasing that sovereign risk we will be talking about in the near term. that will continue to weigh on them. regardless of what the fed does, this underlying commodity story of a big affect in 2016. anna: do you think 2016 will see the fall of these pegs? for example, in the middle east we have a chart showing -- manus: that was the price there. but it is a big principle, isn't
it? can they hold? >> this has to do with the change in sentiment, the risk, the studying of oil prices -- eadying of oil prices around $30 a barrel. a lot of this, i expect, will change in the fed's rate path and the mass liquidations out of emerging markets. it has less to do with the underlying story of low commodity prices and policy changes in emerging markets. when the fed starts moving slowly toward rate hiking, and also commodity prices stay at those low levels, we don't see a balance, we don't see demand in china pick up. currency will come back into for destabilizing type of move. manus: if we think about the prism of china, what i found fascinating is that we are going into a g20.
they do nothing at these things,, anyway. here we are, china is devaluing the yuan before the g20. anna: normally, you condemn play what they do. they do like to talk currency. they craft some type of communication that brings people together. 0 is thency at the g1 main language the ministers like to discuss. we can hear in a lot of chatter about a coordinated type of event. manus: do you mean a stimulus event? ent.now, an fx ev we have heard comments from boj members and ecb members. they normally allow them to provide more manipulation in terms of their currency. it is also this idea that the
qe and fx policies have not worked. they need a coordinated response. manus: what would a coordinated g20 fx response look like? anna: a lot of people have been talking about weakening in the yuan. >> the top level would be the major economies do a one off and use it as a stimulus to pull up the other emerging markets and developing countries. that is the top line. what they aref discussing at this point. it is highly unlikely, i would say, but it is possible. anna: peter, thank you. here is what is ahead. 45 a.m., u.k. time. we will get the south african budget. anna: at the same time, we have
anna: welcome back. this is "countdown." stanley fischer says he remains uncertain of whether the market turmoil signals economic woes that could slow the u.s. economy. georgemeanwhile, esther says policy members should consider raising rates in march. we have the head of market strategy. esther george says keep march alive stanley fischer, i'm going to
paraphrase dreadfully. he says, stop yapping it is too soon. it seems quite hawkish. >> all of a sudden, we went from four hikes to no hikes. all of a sudden,, th the data disappeared. all of the inflation that was theding on the wayside, very strong labor numbers, the good housing numbers, all of a sudden disappeared egos of ofcause volatility. pmi numbers came out softer than expected. they were not terrible, however. housing improved across the board. it is too early to say, no hikes in 2016.
it is realistic that march hikes table, but the probability of no hikes is overdone at this point. anna: in terms of the u.s. story -- i'm sorry, the uk's story. we talked about the pound in this show. the pound can get as weak as $ 1.39. what kind of follow in the market can you imagine if we did vote for a brexit? >> in the first 48 hours, it will be difficult. where it actually ends up is still very much up in the air. risk isthat event still very difficult. it would be more logical to put it at $1.30.
the evaluation aspect though, i think it is extremely difficult at this point. manus: we talked about this at the top of the show. when volatility gets going in sterling, it really rips. 15% moves are pretty normal. 25% moves are rather abnormal. in terms of what you are seeing and what the market is telling you, talk to me about the kind of velocity in sterling trading. >> the market is extremely u ltra short sterling right now. as you said, looking at a two figure downside move witha a brexit, that seems a little bit to underestimate the enormity of this situation.
it is looking like a 10 or 15 big figure move. that would be more my estimate. market will get a lot of political attention going up to the 23rd of june. it looks as if it is going to feature, potentially, a key decision point for voters. >> we are going to have to put on our political caps and become pollsters. there will be rent of volatility when polls come out, but i suspect this will go down to the wire. to me, this is an emotional argument. that cannot be put into play until the people actually go to the polls. i think it makes it extremely difficult to forecast. will: do you think a roak he do more? dual battle.ting a one is the policy and trying to
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let's get to bloomberg first world news. nejra: we have a proposal for producers to freeze output. the iranian oil minister says this puts unrealistic demands onthe country. his saudi counterpart says high-cost producers should bear the burden. pound has fallen below $1.40 for the first time since 2009. this is due to uncertainty over
membership in the eu. meanwhile, a british exit from the eu would be so devastating for the pound but 29 out of 34 economists say it sinking to $1.35 or below within a week of the vote to elleave. sterlingconomists see falling below $1.20. donald trump has added a third straight victory in his drive for the presidential nomination. this is the first caucus since jeb bush suspended his campaign for the nomination. 6%mp: tonight we had 45%-40 and tomorrow you will be hearing, you know, if they could just take the other candidates and add them up. if you could add them up,
because you know the other candidates amount to 35%. they keep forgetting that when people drop out, we are going to get a lot of votes. [cheers] nejra: part of a huge power plant has collapsed in the u.k., killing one person and injuring five others. it was described as a major incident, with three people still missing. it is about 100 kilometers west of london. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. anna: let's get the numbers now. have they sold their phone and internet operations to orange. they see higher profitability in 2016 and profits have topped estimates for 2015.
came in at 54.7 billion euros. the estimate was for 56.3 billion euros. of course, that swings back from a loss of over 700 million euros. the target between 2015 and 2017 was 2 billion euros. here is the kicker. latin america will see that market shrank by a approximately 10%. that is the breaking news from peugeot in terms of the numbers. anna: let's talk about what is happening in africa today. the south african finance minister will be looking to restore confidence in economic policy since being reappointed to the job in december. manus: we are joined from johannesburg. this is a big day. what is he going to deliver?
big day.definitely a it comes at a time when the finance minister has to contend with going economic growth, revenues the falling commodity prices, and also the country dealing with the worst rout there has been in over a century. -- and also the worst drought there has been in over a century. he may be pushed to increase value. a 1% increase could raise about $20 billion. he is looking into the increaseties for an in the fuel levee. that could raise about 12 billion rand. it seems he will be having to deliver a budget speech that will inspire confidence in economic policy and government consolidation today. anna: what are the markets doing in the lead up to the speech? how nervous are investors?
>> well, we have seen the rand rally over the last five days. it rallied for five consecutive days. the currency did come under strain in december and january. that was somewhat of a positive indication. the rand has however, that can back some of those gains this morning. the market is not sure as to what is at stake for this afternoon. the equities market yesterday was on the downside. this is really a mixed bag leading up to the speech this afternoon. manus: stay focused. sure you bring us the news. anna: let's stay with south africa. cavee joined now in petown. eric: good morning, manus and
anna. mike, thank you for being here. we just heard a report from our of aague, the implications downgrade. it looms on the horizon if the finance minister does not deliver a persuasive budget today. what with the implications of the downgrade before the country and your company? >> the implications would be negative for the country. it would lead to lower economic growth than we otherwise bought would have happened and probably, weakness and currency, bonds, and asset values. we have been working very closely together with the finance ministry and we are pretty confident that the minister knows what he has to do to demonstrate the fiscal prudence required to prevent a downgrade. the other two rating agencies are currently aboveon one notch away from investment range.
reporter: do you think you will be pleasantly surprised? >> i hope we will be surprised on the upside. it would be good if the minister can overdeliver on fiscal consolidation. but that is going to be tough to do because revenue from a government point of view will be under pressure even the low levels of economic growth. reporter: this is the fourth largest bank on the continent, not just in south africa. you operate in seven countries. we know that growth is slowing. we know the economic fundamentals are to carry it in. fiscal budgets are under a tremendous amount of pressure. how much riskier does that make it for banks like yours operating in africa? >> if you look at how we were running our businesses before the global financial crisis -- the south african banking system came through the financial crisis without having to be bailed out. i think what we have got is a goingtrong banking system
into some choppy waters. reporter: ok, but how does it affect the way you run your company? know, given the environment you are operating in today, what will it look like for the next three years? growthhink lonan will remain roughly around gdp. what is quite interesting though, if you dig underneath that, there are still an awful lot of opportunities in renewable energy. we have seen some weakness on the retail side, but still quite a lot of strength in loan growth. there is a much bigger focus on costs and credit control in an environment like this.
we would expect them naturally to increase. reporter: so you would continue to deploy capital, even if it is at a slower rate. but that is not the case for any foreign investors. what is that going to mean for what this continent so badly needs, more railways, more ports , more water, more infrastructure. >> for sure, it makes it harder. hopefully, what we will see that at the very time when investors start taking money out of these geographies, that creates opportunities for other investors to come in. if you take south africa right now, the rand has depreciated by 25% against the dollar, but if you look at the rand measured against purchasing power, the rand is 20% undervalued. if you take a long-term view at the rand, it has always
trended back towards purchasing power. reporter: if barclays were to abandon this continent, what would it mean for you? >> they could create some opportunities. clearly, the barclays africa business is a still a very strong and powerful competitor in south africa. it might lose some of the competitive advantage it has through the links to barclays. i would imagine that under that management, they will continue to be strong. reporter: are there any assets that are going to come under sale that you would want? >> we have chosen a partnership approach with eti as our partner. they are in 30 countries. we are looking to grow t the nedbank franchise.
thank you very much. great speaking with you. back to you in london. manus: eric, thank you very much. it will be interesting to see who goes for those assets if they do go up on the block. peter the still with us. -- peter is still with us. he was suggesting the rand is undervalued, but it will gravitate back toward the purchasing power level. >> the budget conversation today is very important. the market needs to know how bad the deterioration growth has been. they need to know what steps policymakers are doing, both traditional in terms of increasing taxes, and nontraditional in terms of asset sales.
we could see a further downgrade in credit and further excess of capital. the currency obviously, will suffer significantly. i know manus wants to talk about that. manus: this is what we are talking about here. the rand is under incredible pressure, in terms of the rand versus the dollar. the market is really paying up in terms of volatility. will be gravitate back -- willie gravitate back towards purchasing power -- will we gravitate back towards purchasing power? >> not anytime soon. ppbple are not looking at and saying, we need to reval ue the rand. they want to get a little protection just in case policymakers don't do what they need them to do.
ofus: these are a whole host commodity currencies. >> that is part of the story. the south african story is part of the global story. it has to do with low demand from china, where a lot of south africa's agricultural and commodity exports were going. fedas to do with the changing their policy. i think south africa is really subjected to the global headwind, more than underlying micro trends. anna: if markets start to become more confident in a few rate hikes from the fed, how does that change the emerging markets story? it could go either way. it depends what the fed is being more hawkish. they could be positive for emerging markets. >> that is true. if we see global demand increasing and the fed saying,
well, let's raise rates, that is good for emerging markets but that is probably not what we will see. we will face stagnation on global growth. the fed will probably say it is time for study rate hikes. that will not be good for emerging markets, that erosion or the lack of revenue from low commodity prices. arabia is that a $100 billion in budget deficit this year. they need to find ways of plugging these holes. commodity prices are not looking to pick up anytime soon and if so, that will just expand and get worse and worse. we are talking about a broad topic of issues this morning. anna: up next, earnings move higher on thousands of orders
anna: welcome back. this is "countdown." let's get to the bloomberg business flash. nejra: even jpmorgan is not immune to the global market drought. revenue from sales and trading have tumbled 20% this year and there is no let up in sight. revenuessee fee fall by 25% this quarter. after have fallen carmakers announced they have recalled 45,000 civic sedans after reports of engine fires. that is your bloomberg business flash. manus: thaknk you.
let's get more with chris jasper. couplebus, there are a different parts in this story. anna was looking at one of the models. day comes in just below estimates. -- it comes in just below estimates. is just below what we were looking for. there does not seem to be anything major holding them back. there were certainly currency effects as well. tthey have less coming in, in terms of deposits. if you look at the actual aircraft programs, the delivery a350 is where35 they wanted to be. anna: that is what they are
ramping up. >> it is. they delivered the first one at the end of 2014. that in itself is a challenge. the super jumbo, a350, is actually at break even point now. every plane they previously made they have been losing money on. that does not mean the program is at breakeven. in terms of per plane production, they have broken even. anna: they are looking forward at 2016 outlook. >> that is for stable earnings. they probably hope to improve on that. in terms of the actual programs, this is encouraging. manus: when you look at the broader market, this there a shift? if we are lower for longer in oil, are we about to enter into a period of renaissance?
the momentum for airbus -- >> there is an interesting dynamic. the bulk of these orders were placed years ago, at the height of oil prices. especially, the a320 neo, which began delivery in january, they were ordered with high oil in mind. they probably would not have ordered them if they had known what would happen. if you can afford the planes, you still get a major fuel savings, 15% of where you would have been, regardless of the price of oil. i don't think the bottom will drop out of the market. i that they are glad they put those orders when they did, however. us in the studio for
the next 30 minutes or so. is this something you have watched, the civil aviation cycle? >> it does allow us to have a look at the macro dynamics. many people are focused on how good low oil prices are for airline operators. that is true, but having said that, when you look at the bulk of these new orders, they have been coming from emerging market based and in many cases, harshly subsidized airlines. goodil might be very perhaps, if i am running a seen myut if i have public spending budget cut dramatically, because oil is not and i amymore,
ordering for the next 15 or 20 fleet, that could have implications on how much growth these airlines are going to be seeing. manus: when we talk about oil and airbus, in he mentioned oil in terms of the risk to the sovereigns and the risk to the consumer in the west. the conversation we had earlier stress there is a lot of for middle east countries. we are talking about them pulling money out of the market. we did a story on that yesterday. how much does that play into the consideration as you look at markets? >> it does play a big role, especially on the fixed income side.
have certainly been a big how well terms of some companies did. we were all talking about deutsche bank and whether deutsche bank paid for what was being excessively punished. strong rumorse that a lot of that volume out of the european banks was coming nds forced tou reduce exposure. when we talk about people who have been thursday for years, i wherethat is the one area you need to be very careful in terms of going in and out. some of, that is how
these commodity related sovereign wealth funds have been performing. in terms of the broader emerging are talkingy, they about how there are opportunities in emerging markets. they said the market is pricing in a collapse. so, this is a fantastic opportunity when there is a disconnect between prices. they are distinguishing between some of those. they not like turkey, venezuela, and south africa. they do like others, however. >> thinking of areas where one can make money, that is one area. africa. about africa is an example of a continent where you have a huge ability to discriminate. we have people producing like nigeria and you know they will be hurt for a long time, but
then you look at other countries where you can see growth rates in excess of 7% or 8%. the rest have been in asia. you look at all of the countries exporting in the asian pacific,, and they have to be a little more careful. they are talking about chinese market growing by 5%. europe grew by 2%. where does that fit? >> it fits pretty well. low oil plays well.
out of the staffing sector. manus: given interim dividend thathayes, a recruiter operates in 30 countries around the world. on first-halfofit operating profit of 86.3 million . in interim dividend of .91 pence. a basic earnings per share at 3.99 pence. we will speak to the finance director. he will be joining us at 7:15 to get his take on how the world looks. we will speak to paul around 50 minutes time. let's talk about the european equity market. european features uprising submit a little bit weaker. no surprise, when you look at
the asian session. paris, have london, all indicated a little bit lower. i think the concern is all about oil. that is where we are seeing the real momentum. that is caused the whole idea of a deal between opec and non-opec seems to fall apart. sayinge oil dropping this freeze in production is ridiculous. that is their words. anna: take a look at the yen, talking that whether we could see strengthening and the yen. theng it down below 110 to dollar. in terms that gold price, i read -- we're calling of a superhero. oil seems to be driving the momentum. that will play on the markets at the start of your trading day.
nejra: the pound has fallen for the first time since 2009 after bank of england policymakers said uncertainty place in thes european union is causing uncertainty. he will campaign for the u.k. to leave the eu and asian referendum post a meanwhile, a british exit from the eu would be so devastating for the pound that 29 out of 34 economists in a bloomberg survey see it sinking to $1.35 or below. that is a number last seen in 1985. some seed falling below $1.20. donald trump is one the nevada caucuses. win makes in the victor of three out of the four states that i voted on the republican side. camp -- caucus since jeb bush suspended his nomination. i'll drop: today -- donald trum
we got 45%, there was a prodigious take the other candidates and add them up. the other candidates amounts to 55%. if they could just -- they keep forgetting that when people drop out we will get a lot of votes. they keep forgetting. nejra: jpmorgan's investment bank says sales from trading of tumbled 20% this year. the news provided early gauge of the pain in foot that wall street's biggest firm by the global market rout. but jamie dimon thinks things will improve. make that decision when you buy stocks. i don't, i don't have to worry about that. belief isown personal that this will settle out. the u.s. could just keep
chugging along. the number of cats kept as pets is on the way to overtaking that of dogs in japan. meanwhile, the number of children continue to drop steadily. increasingly living alone, cancer finding favor because dogs are more demanding ed, need to be walk according to the secretary-general. anna: never let it be said that we take our eyes off that crucial japanese cap-dog ratio. no cyclic, sorry. 2015 2.4 billion euros. some of the things that a been helping this business a weaker euro and higher industrial demand. the company giving us an update
today, watch out for the focus on the nobles and the grid the business. at that is doing to outset any increase in electricity. also the british market will be watched keenly. a bit of an affect. willhairman and ceo, we join the on the move team at 7:45 u.k. time. manus: let's get a wrapup of the asian market session. heidi is standing by. those it has been one of sessions. we haven't had this level of volatility for a wild. last time we spoke to you we were firmly in the red. we have turned it around now. also around the region, it is a broadly down day tracking the loss of the u.s. session overnight. chinese companies trading in
hong kong, the hang seng index down by 1.3%. the gdp print for the fourth quarter was actually better than expected. a lot of weakness down there down by .7%. the nikkei closing lower, but d earlier losses. really putting pressure on exporters in terms of their trading profits. the status loss we are seeing coming through sydney stocks on account of a selloff in that energy space. the crude story is weighing. we did see a little bit of a rally when it comes to gold retailers. they were just about the only stocks trading into the upside in sydney. we had energy stocks from japan plunging as well.
and of the, and another safety recall for honda in terms of the u.s. market. these of the stocks it were badly hit by the currency move in terms of the yen strength. they do manufacturing for subaru, up by 1.6%. this is a major apple supplier, down by 3.5 percent. they can 90% of their business offshore. that stronger yen will take a bite out of future earnings. another down day, but we're back into the days of the volatility were shanghai ends up in the last leg of the day. anna: haidi, thank you. the federal reserve vice chairman stanley fischer says he remains uncertain as to whether the market turmoil singles -- signals some in the could slow the u.s. economy. manus: he thinks it is too early to judge. meanwhile, policymakers should
be prepared to raise interest rates according to one spokesperson. >> we come again, moving from extraordinary accommodation in this economy to something more neutral. has said it will do that in a gradual fashion. how thewhen i look at economy is performing. i am looking at the consumer, and the labor market. we are at 4.9%, inflation looks to be stable. moving in the direction meeting the fed's goal, it actually should be on the table for consideration. anna: let's bring back in the cio of london capital. how much is a question about how many hikes could we see from the fed this year? >> not so much anymore. what they're thinking but of the three main pressure points, oil, a strong dollar, the potential weakness that
could flow out of china. expectations about the fed, the market's for a much saying you could say whatever, we don't believe you. we think you will not be being as aggressive as you say you will. that probably will happen. it is not something that worries me. think that is something investors should bury much focus on. --hink they are sufficiently there are some developments going on outside the u.s.. manus: we have the you 20 coming up in the next couple of days. -- we have had people say the need to do something radical. what about the exchange rate mechanism? what is your best case scenario because this been
inching lower as we go towards this g-20 meeting. could be something much more substantial? pau: baseline scenario, a low trended downward. ivan 30% in six months time with my be talking about is situation where they say you know what come we cannot deal with $100 billion worth of reserves leaving our country every single month. we have three chilean dollars of reserves -- $3 trillion of reserves. goldman sachs, this morning with their estimates a ice flows have slowed to about $88 billion. heavilyhe question is passed to the watch -- have we
passed to the watch? pau: there is a big chance that we happen. if we see a video seeing problems with these, the dollar keeps strengthening as a probably will, if oil continues its way downward, they use the pressure on these multibillion flows out of china. oil trendingout down, we have conversations about the negative and the equity -- the broad marketing focus on weaker oil and selling equities as a result. electrolux this morning, the household appliances company saying their materials will get a positive impact. because what is going on with the oil price. the broader weakness and commodities, where are the positives? life,s everything in good,ing moderate is
cheap oil is great, very cheap oil is bad. there is a lot of good news coming in the first round coming from cheap oil. for your average american, it is great. for all this consumer related stocks, that is very good news. but, to our second round and location to very cheap oil. the implications of political risk increasing. budgetary concerns a very key economies in south america. , we've always have these very low levels. it is for a much the second round of fact that is worrying me. as if ad, it's not strong dollar is bad. but a very strong dollar is bad. there is a tipping point at which it is like drinking wi
ne. manus: willow the consequences of a little bit too much. pau, thank you for joining us this morning. you have sterling under pressure, oil under pressure, the pound is worried. anna: european equity markets could be a little less strong at the beginning of trade. we speak to the finest regular the recruitment of hays. ♪
last year as a rant up delivery to the latest model. to 4.1 3tax rose billion euros. citroen said it will release new earnings targets amid increasing demand in its home market of europe. the carmaker said recurring operating income last year climbed to 2.7 billion euros. honda shares have fallen after a chairman announced and top executives will leave the firm. it's also recalling 42,000 civic sedans after reports of engine fire. the worst may be over for emerging market bonds. it is time to consider adding exposure according to two of the world's largest debt managers. the global central banks have
made risky assets more tractive. meanwhile, franklin templeton said negative sentiments has reached extreme levels. that favors countries including brazil, mexico, and south korea. that is your bloomberg business flash. anna: thank you very much. the first half on breaking profit came, the finest structure of the business joins us now. great as always to see you. you describe these as great numbers. what is the outlook? >> let's start with the results first. we should celebrate we have great results. savingsy pound worth of we took 40% of that the bottom line. profit set a record performance. while markets such as australia and the u.k. have slowed, we have increased our profitability
by 20%. across the board, looking back across his last six months results were very good. manus: a couple of big things to -- are inyou own 33 33 countries. manufacturing is in recession, a question is on the front line. does it feel like employers are putting back? debt are they still continuing at a pace that is sustainable? l: split the world and the u.s. and europe, where everything is looking good with strong growth. come most of his 18 euro the records in that market. now let's come to the rest of the world. all of the asia-pacific is much quieter than it was a year ago. we had all-time records in japan and china.
actually, we would expect to be growing more in those markets. there is no doubt after 2.5 years with a very strong growth there is more focus on cost control at the moment. i would say most companies who put a lot of investment in the last two years in capital or employment, they're now saying there's a bit more uncertainty out there. we will continue to do the right thing in our business. but the first word is cost control. anna: the last time you were here, you're talking about that things could look weaker in the u.k. but there wasn't the signs of a recession. is that still the way you look at this? last said it was a positive breath, and i will continue to use that. there is a bit of panic investment. you know you have to spend money. to dousinesses don't have that at the moment. there much tighter on their costs. 4%,ate businesses to love
and that is grown today. at but the public sector is more difficult postelection. there is not much investment going on in the public sector right now. is nowhere near like 2010, i think a positive breath, we will not look for strong growth in the next 6-12 months. manus: you mentioned cost control a couple of times. my question, let's take that into context for how negotiate potential employees and employers? cuts in terms of what is being negotiated? is there a wage pressure, are the shortages? if so, where are they? l: i don't think the bank of england these to worry but wage pressure at all. oil price discussion this morning, there is no doubt that wage pressure -- which a year ago i came on this program
and said it feels like we could be a 3% in the u.k.. at the moment, it is about 2%. we have really highly valued skill employees -- manus: trending lower? paul: i think that 2% is what i would categorize as the cap to keep all companies -- employees happy. what we are looking at companies doing a saying in certain areas these people are exceptionally valuable. we discussed before in market construction, after three years of very strong growth they're was a real skill shortage. a lot of people managed to get some in like 10% of wage growth. even now, that could be a little tighter this year. there is no real inflationary pressure. a lot of people were going to move and have done that. what we have now is a more balanced type of market. no signs of panic at all. i come back to some cost
control. this bit of a strong run-up and a bit of a positive breath. anna: how does that rub up against the brexit conversation? if you're causing for breath now, you will still be aroundo june. : i have only worked in highly cyclical businesses, i clearly failed in my career. most companies, when they get to this march. period. i think this cost control we've been talking about since july is not a new thing. i think that will absolutely continue. theyny respects, i think will put the foot on the break. it will still do the right thing, but it would be the right time to do a large investment. i think a lot of companies will wait until after the poll in the
u.k. is put away,hat because germany and europe. take us to australia. that is an incredibly important market for you. today, remain, city get more confident in australia than the u.k. with the largest white-collar player in that space. from our standpoint, which is mining hiring people, that has stopped. in growth.the pickup there is a lot of construction going on industrial you. u.k., we will be and a time of public sector high cost control. there is no doubt that they have opened a bit.
there is a fairly large number of massive infrastructure projects. i would be more confident in australia continuing to grow. past, when we came back to growth, we talk about how quickly did you get to 20%-30%. if we can get you 5% growth, we would be delighted. anna: how strong is europe right now? and how across the board is it strong? it were saying in this kind of playing catch-up, how is that? paul: it not only had the banking crisis, but then the euro crisis. for us, germany, we're up 12%. france up 16%, all of our records are very strong at the moment. some of the forward indicators are a bit weaker. we will continue with more than 10% growth over the next 12 months. to turne have managed
so your business can get back to business. sounds like my ride's ready. don't get stuck on hold. reach an expert fast. comcast business. built for business. ♪ guy: welcome to "on the move." we're counting down to the european open. we find hans nichols in frankfurt today, we will be with him shortly. how low can sterling go? the pound drops on brexit fears. but the economy could see far steeper slide if britain votes to leave the eu. don't count of the fed out. kansas city fed president morning that a march hike