tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg March 7, 2016 10:00am-11:01am EST
on bloomberg television. ♪ ♪ vonnie: we want to take you from new york to london to beijing. u.s. stocks are retreating from a two-month high. investors are thinking and considering about the latest chinese announcement meant, the possibility of new stimulus measures. from the ecb. mark: a commodity comes back today with iron ore growing the most in a single day in what some say this rally -- and why some say this won't last. vonnie: donald trump is ahead in a michigan primary. ted cruz is warning that washington dealmakers should not the nomination from
the man leading the race. let's go to the markets desk. we are seeing stocks model along today with a decline snapping the three-day rally. the s&p 500 is down half a percent and the nasdaq is declining the most today as thick knowledge he is a heavy weight in the major averages. if you take a look at the bloomberg and you see the groups on the move, tech and financials are the worst performers. investors are trying to assess what is going on in china. offering a range for its gdp forecast and boosting foreign reserves. it is a mixed bag . let's look at large-cap technology which is once again on the move. , andsoft, facebook
alphabet are weighing the most on the major averages. rally still seeing the from the lows of february 11. what is encouraging is the russell 2000 where the gains have overtaken the s&p 500. these are both indices since february 11. the russell 2000 of small caps is up 13%. in past instances, when we see that kind of rise in the russell, it tends to be followed by more of an increase for the broader market. vonnie: much of the new today will be related to china? julie: people are watching this and we have not seen that close a correlation from stock at the ready between here and there. here you see the dollar going up versus the remembyi, iron or is the standout movement
on this optimism that the chinese government is taking steps to shore up the economy. this is the one-year chip with a surge of 19% and that's a record. that is helping the mining stocks that mine iron ore. natural resources are winning already. that streak is just continuing. vonnie: we will speak with a barclays emison -- analyst about iron ore in a few minutes but let's get to the first word news. : angela merkel says talks will be tough but she is hoping for a sustainable solution on turkey on the european refugee crisis. she and other european union leaders are holding an emergency summit in brussels today and there want to stop refugees from entering europe. in u.s. politics, the democratic presidential candidates face-off
last night in a debate in flint, michigan. hillary clinton attacked bernie sanders. over the government's rescue of automakers. >> he was against the automobile bailout. in january of 2009, i voted to save the auto industry. thatted against the money ended up saving the auto industry. courtney bernie sanders accused hillary clinton of voting for certain disasters for the american people. nancy reagan is being remembered. she died yesterday. she sometimes organized president reagan schedule in the white house aced on astrological readers and campaigned against illegal drug use and later became an advocate for stem cell research. she was 94 years old. , peyton manning, is calling it a career. he led the broncos to victory in
the super bowl but has decided to retire. he won two super bowl titles and was named the league's most valuable player, a record five times. global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists, in 150 news bureaus around the world. vonnie: thank you so my sprint the annual gathering of the chinese legislature, they talked about a hard landing as they outlined their plans. and tiananmenng square. >> this is one of the rare occasions that foreign generalist are allowed to report from tiananmen square and it's eight 10 day of political pageantry known as the people's congress. in the great hall, some 3000 delegates are gathered ranging from the top officials to representatives from the military as well as the cultural spheres, ethnic nordic groups
are here as well to discuss the next five-year development plan. the event is known as something of a rubber stamp. we spoke to some of the delegates to see what they hope to achieve. >> i hope china can build a moderate society by 2020 within the 13 five-year plan. i hope our people can live happily. >> we should solidify our work while maintaining reforms and opening up and adhering to the poor comprehensives put forward by the party. that is the key for our reform. in particular, that's something we should do in the new normal phase. we are forward to seeing how supply-side reforms will be carried out. >> i hope hong kong can make use in the nexttages five-year plan. i hope to take this message back to hong kong. >> i really want to know how my hometown can take advantage of the policies under the 13th five-year plan.
that was from beijing. the focus today turns to the world biggest border of currency. their foreign exchange slowed but the nation took steps toward shoring up growth. the head of asia research for bloomberg intelligence joins us now to talk about the impact of the weekend meeting and reactions to the fx reserves. the pace of the drawdown and slower, $28.6 billion. will they continue to burn through their enormous $3.2 trillion stockpile? >> the next couple of months will be quite critical from the standpoint of watching whether this calm that has developed over the last several weeks from
the craziness of january into february will stick. certainly, coming out of the mpc and seeing a lot of rhetoric that focuses on stability, sustaining growth, not at a crazy clip but at a more moderate clip with both fiscal and monetary policy measures goes a long way in trying to just calm the market down. mark: supporting near-term growth might come at a medium-term cost. that's what some are taking away from this weekend. >> it's true. if i look at what our team of economists are thinking about and the bottom-up industry analysts, there is an interesting correlation. on the economic front, you want them to deal with what is clearly a mountain of debt. by the same token, you also want them to be focusing on reform measures. it's hard to do both of those at the same time. they are trying to stimulate oath with fiscal and monetary.
there is a boatload of reform measures part of the 13th five-year plan that were ratified and pushed forward through the mpc. it was done a little on the quiet side because they want to be coming across with a calming measure and the proof will be in the putting in the next 12-18 months. have household registration reforms so they can get rid of the overcapacity. all of that is critical. vonnie: the other measure is to expand the deficit to 3%. it does not sound like enough. you think that the target was 2.3% last year and they bumped it up to three. who cares? the same thing with the monetary -- the money supply growth going
from 12-15%. on the size of the economy and the size of the watch it, those are sizable numbers that can help continue to push forward measures. it is being connected with things like what they are doing in the property market where they have lowered payments to buy a home. to rework theosed income tax system so you have mortgage tax reductions -- deductions. things will help clear out a critical area. that's part of the soul program. vonnie: there is also traditional savings being put in place. is this in order for china to cut down supply of things like steel and iron ore? >> it's interesting, it's one of those items that did not get a huge amount of focus.
$15 100 million rmb, million or so of u.s. dollars to support training and reeducation of employees with soe's and other companies that go through a restructuring and its steel and coal and other materials, old-school manufacturing. but not a massive number it's a start in the right direction and shows the focus. some still say that the growth target is still ambitious. do you concur? frankly, we wish it would have been something like 6% as opposed to 6.5% which would have been heavier growth but an easier target. you don't want to disappoint. that said, measuring chinese
economic growth is tricky. you've got big parts of the old economy that they are winding down. you've got big parts of the new economy that are growing rapidly. in fact, you cannot really measure so much of the new stuff with the traditional gdp measures because it still gives a weight on the old stuff. we had a measure where we break out the old economy and the new economy and the old economy would be railroad traffic area it's: iron ore and stuff like that in the new economy is truck shipping which will go to retail. it's interesting. mark: good to see you. we will see you long-term in london in not too long. coming up on bloomberg markets, moreore got desert jumped
vonnie: two commodities, the bounce in oil prices has reached 2.5% today. another commodities rally is going on in metal with iron ore soaring the most in ice tingled day. -- in a single day. one analyst in china says the market is gone berserk. copper is up more than $.60 this year following three straight weeks of gains. will this continue? you had signaled this in your notes last month saying this
desert there was possibly a bottom for the moment. let's talk about china. have we seen the current state of demand? has the state of demand been clarified in china? >> i don't think it has and that's what's interesting about this rally in oil but across metals. we have seen this rally and the prices are surging. we have not seen any fundamental data that justifies the price levels. during the month of february in china, the entire country went on a holiday equivalent to a christmas holiday in the west. during that month, we don't get a lot of data so it's hard to read what's going on. i monitor china daily and i have yet to see evidence we have seen a hard turn. vonnie: what about what was announced at the annual meeting, the idea that they will take --sures to make this apply make the supply go down and close factories and support the economy and move toward a
service economy? you highlighted that because this weekend, there was a meeting of the chinese congress for the announced their reforms. when it comes to politics in china, you have to separate rhetoric from reality. there is a lot of bullish sounding rhetoric. there was an expansion of financing and loans a new infrastructure plans. when it comes to reality, how that will impact the economy is what we are more skeptical about. these commodities have to be considered. we don't think the data and their announcements justify that. pc said it would cut overcapacity in steel and you would think that would lead to a curving of demand and iron ore. jumped by iron ore 18%, what's going on? me being here at bloomberg that caused it to jump. there has been a disconnect during the fundamentals and the
trading on a day-to-day basis. rally, this isre not an anomaly because it followed what has been several weeks of strong gains in the metals market. i think it is a lot of trading on rhetoric but when it comes to reality, it has not justify the high metal prices. mark: we were at $38 in december and now $63. we are at $191 in 2011. give me an outlook for the price of iron ore. >> with the price of iron ore and most metals, they will trade on what happens in china. what barclays has been saying to our clients is when it comes to china come don't expect a miracle and don't expect the apocalypse but expect it to through.uddle the chinese economy is slowing down that the ultimate message. vonnie: talk about the demand for iron ore and steel.
they say steel will once again begin to impact iron ore prices. demand,we look at steel it is ultimately used throughout the real economy. when you build an apartment till then, when you build a vehicle, you're using steel. iron ore is an essential component of steel. this goes back to my fundamental point -- the chinese real estate market is looking to plateau within the next five years. as the chinese real estate market plateaus in the heart economy starts to slow down, we will see that through the steel prices and iron ore prices because they are the raw material. vonnie: you said in your report that since the beginning of the year, there seems to be a shift from sentiment to the more positive with things like copper and iron ore in steel. >> that's right, it could be that we are seeing a real turn and demand. we have not yet seen that evidence so we have seen the commodities rally are usually
when they do, that's a sign of improving macro sentiment. it could be something we are not saying that we have not in that. automobiled production has been going down. we're not there yet. vonnie: thank you so much. still ahead, a big weekend in the presidential prop -- primaries. what it means for the big boats and the -- in michigan in the race for the white house. ♪
december 9, 2015. u.s. democratic candidates for president debated in flint, michigan last night. they sparred over domestic and foreign policy. hillary clinton holds a 17% lead in polls there. on the republican side, donald trump is still out in front leading ted cruz 41-22% and marco rubio is taking 17% and john kasich is at 13%. let's bring in megan murphy to break down the political developments. thanks for joining us. >> no problem. mark: it seems ted cruz has poured cold water on this contested convention idea and the idea that mitt romney put forward that there should be tactical voting in states like florida. was that the takeaway? >> i think the takeaway is that ted cruz has continued
surprising strength winning two states particularly in maine where we had expected donald trump to pull through another victory. a contested convention on the floor, ted cruz will not probably be the man who goes out. he is not loved by the republican establishment. think he knows if it gets to that point, he is unlikely to be the guy. his strategy has got to be to be the candidate that comes as the anti-trump candidate and he has to hope that marco rubio and john kasich fall out of the race and he goes one-on-one with donald from and can win that victory in a man on man matchup. have toes marco rubio drop out if he does not win florida? >> the consensus is that he will. there has been talk that if you cannot win your home state as ted cruz did in texas, you cannot go on in the race. john kasich be hoping for the same in ohio.
the problem for marco rubio is he has failed to become the establishment candidate choice. voters see weakness there. there is a huge momentum of anti-establishment surge backing donald trump but ted cruz. for rubio, he will have to look at his campaign. he's got everything riding on florida and the polls show donald trump still has a lead but that lead is narrowing. we will look to michigan tomorrow to see of donald trump's strength in the poll matches up with what we see. we have seen the margin smaller. on the democratic side, hillary is 57 and bernie sanders is 40. what about the assertion that bernie sanders -- donald trump is better than hillary -- donald trump? >> it shows bernie sanders outperforming hillary clinton against donald trump at it's difficult to say if they mean anything. the bernie sanders problem is
while he does well in heavily white states that trend more liberal but when you get to the diversehat have a more state with more african-american voters and latino voters, he fails to make the kind of inroads he needs with that demographic. he needs to show he can win black voters and win latino voters if he is going to have a serious chance of staying in this race. mark: thanks for joining us today. -brent crude iste crossing $40 per barrel. still i had, mario draghi faces big and expect haitians. brexitrney talks about risk. ♪
and london, i'm vonnie quinn. thy mark barton. courtney donohoe is at the news desk. hi, courtney. courtney: vice president joe biden eval into "wipe out this state.hat is the islamic vice president biden: we will continue to squeeze the heart of they cannot continue to pump their poison into the world. we are making it harder for them to maneuver. we are cutting off their lifeline, their oil revenues, and there fineir finances. more bad behavior from north korea. the isolated regime is making
more threats against the u.s. and allies. they tend to spike when stages whatnd seoul they call their annual springtime wargames. north korea says that they are drills for an invasion. only half of the people are confident in the safety of their tap water. many of those surveyed say the lead contamination incident, michigan, is a sign of a problem. and tennis star maria sharapova has called a news conference in los angeles to make what her agent calls a major announcement. there is speculation that the 28-year-old could retire from the game. days ago, she pulled out of a tournament due to an injury.
global news 24 hours a day powered by 2400 journalists in 150 bureaus around the world. i'm courtney donohoe. vonnie? let's go to the markets desk where julie hyman has a check on the movers. julie? julie: i want to mention that the dow has ticked positive on this mixed session. i want to start with commodities, in particular brent, which touched above $40 a barrel, which has not happened in some time. we have a delayed effect from the baker hughes rig count, friday.me out supplies are at an 86-year high. nonetheless, there is optimism that may start to change. now the delayed ripple effect brent today, a spike of 3% in this prices. also being felt in wti, and also andre seeing activity
natural gas. imac screwed up 3%, continuing its rebound from his 17-year low , up 3.5%, even as we are facing warmer weather in the northeast this week. what to check oil and natural movers. chesapeake continues its crazy run here. ,he stock has more than doubled 112 percent, and it keeps going. amountshat essentially to a short squeeze, as well as began after the company received immunity for its cooperation in the investigation and indictment of aubrey mcclendon, the late cofounder of the company. the scandinavian company, the past five166% sessions. also speculation that the
chairman of the company might step in to bail it out. that has been an incredible move as well. finally, stepping away from commodities, want to mention netflix. down 3.7%. we have commentary from cory barnett from itg, an analyst over there. enough athe note in my few minutes ago. he says that netflix is too optimistic about its edition two ms stick -- it's addition to domestic subscribers this year. he thinks we are seeing a for thesementum additions here and that's obviously affecting the stock here today, mark. mark: julie, quickly, let's have a look at the stoxx 600, the ftse, the dax. lg falling for the second day, investors digesting the news from the national people's
congress in china. have a look at the bond market today. it was significant for one start because prior to last week the german 10-year bond yield had fallen four consecutive weeks. there's only one big event in europe this week. it takes place on thursday. that is when mario draghi speaks to his colleagues and they are expected to add further stimulus to the european economy. quickly, i want to look at sterling that had a cracking week last week. the euro fell 1.9% against the single currency, that was after it rose by 2% in the prior week. concernsthat brexit have dissipated, at least for now, and head of the referendum. bank stay with the central . from danny blanchflower, the theessor of economics at
bank of england. danny, always great to see you. stat i read today. under mario draghi, the ecb has added stimulus in 10 out of 47 meetings at the home, which leads to the obvious question, danny -- is thursday going to be it? are we going to see more stimulus from draghi, possibly after thursday's meeting? danny: we are going to see more, and even with those numbers and the high proportion of meetings, -- thee response to ludicrous decisions they made in 2011, they raised rates twice. anemicseeing a very recovery in europe. i was looking at the data before we came on.
11 country still in deflation, youth unemployment 22%, double digit unemployment rate, sick double digito -- unemployment rates almost everywhere, so what have they have said inflation will come back to target in a will be well, but it has turned out to be nonsense. what is enough? after december 3, the ecb was clearly disappointing investors. how will he match expectation this time? obviously, more is needed, but we are clearly in the situation where monetary policy is fighting overly tight fiscal policy. the same in the u.k. mark carney said the same thing in the other day. had monetary policy in
2009, we generated a big boost. the world has come to the central bank for the confinement cap alone and we have found out that they can't, and now we're seeing, how negative can rates go? remember the lost a japanese decade? we are eight or so years and already. a decade will be pretty good. it will be two decades by this incompetence. maybe it was the month before -- he was saying, whatever it takes, they will do whatever it takes, and there are tools there, danny, so in the absence of physical maneuvering, what will they do? 20 more basis points -- well, yeah. presumably they will fiddle while athens and rome and other places burned. they will do a little more fiddling at the edges. this is no bazooka.
this is a whimper. look at the numbers. we are eight years end. i'm looking at the latest data. 10 eu countries in deflation. how are they going to fix that problem? vonnie: take a look at the euro. it did weaken. it hit the 109 barrier. does it stay there? is there anything mario draghi can do that might lead to more weakening? danny: i don't think so. i think the markets have taken the view that i have, which is not much will happen. a little bit will happen. willll weaken the euro little bit. not a surprise coming. not enough. you keep arguing, not enough. i have probably saying -- i have probably been saying this 20 times on the show. deflation.get rid of unemployment is high. what are they doing? mentioning, you keep
crisis.ncial which leads me to your old buddy mervyn king's book. he is basically saying nothing has been learned from the financial crisis. he is worried about the banking industry, and he says without reform of the financial system, another crisis is certain. are you going to agree with your former governor? i probably end, -- i probably am, but it's a little rich coming from a governor of the bank of england could have andituted those reforms didn't. who is going to do it? basically central banks missed the last great recession. presumably another one is coming along. that is what the business cycle is. yeah, he is probably right. he was governor for an awfully long time.
why didn't you do something about it? mpc: danny, you were on the . do you shoulder the blame? danny: i shoulder the blame by not being able to convince people by the end of 2007 a major crisis was happen. and my colleagues, even by the end of 2008, including mervyn king, had not spotted the greatest recession in years had started six months earlier. always great to see you. come and see me when you are in london. danny blanche bauer, former member of the bank of england monetary policy committee. -- a look atad dupont. we will find out what this means for investors. that's coming up. ♪
mark: this is bloomberg markets. i mark barton in london. and i'm vonnie quinn in for betty liu. now for a check on the stocks, abigail doolittle has the latest on the nasdaq, starting today with micron technologies, abigail? abigail: micron is one of the ,orst performing stocks today after it was downgraded to a neutral. really a bearish call by analyst from it shock, who says that supply is ample, and the price good good lower. other analysts are calling for a margin recovery later this year. this analyst says that is unlikely. current -- that my
bearish callhave a later. i love the ticker there. what else? performing,ron was outperforming the nasdaq. most recently the board did form a committee to explore strategic alternatives, including a reverse been of the company's stake of alibaba, even the sale assets, including patents and properties. even with yahoo! up, shares are down sharply from the record peaked back in november 2011. vonnie: thank you so much. we will check back in later run. turning the company around could be difficult according to the linkedin ceo. he joined emily chang exclusively this weekend on "studio 1.0" and discussed the
future of yahoo!. guest: i think turnarounds are the most difficult thing you can do in business, full stop. trying to change the culture of difficult.tion is i think marissa mayer must've walked into a situation where there was not a huge probability of being able to turn it around, and credit to her for still taking on the role, and i think she was able to make some changes their in terms of the culture, in terms of the development culture, in terms of mobile, buton to that is a really, really challenging situation in terms of, not just the culture, but the legacy assets and the hasosition -- the world evolved so dramatically from the earliest days of the consumer web. so, china navigates that. it is tough.
looks like they are very seriously evaluating this to sell the company -- emily: is that the right call? guest: i'm not in marissa mayer's shoes. i can't see the leading indicators. that may be why she was reluctant to sell the company because she may be excited in the plan they have to turn things around and create value. there's a whole list of variables. you really have to put yourself in her shoes to understand what is going on. emily: what you think is the best and the worst case scenario for yahoo!? go to someones to who realizes that it is still used by hundreds of millions of people on a daily basis. if it is sold, they need to realize that yahoo! can create the world. i think that is how she is
assessing her options, maximizing value. vonnie: and that was linkedin ceo jeff weiner speaking with emily chang on "studio 1.0." mark? is said to be making a bid for dupont, the chemical company that agreed to a merger with dow chemical in december. here to help us understand all of the players, jeffrey mccracken. why is basf exploring this a bit? little are being left a bit behind. they were interested in syngenta and they were interested in dow chemical before they started talking. maybe they should have moved sooner. the fact that they are still exploring probably means that there is a lot of strategic logic and it is tempting. it is not clear they will stand up and make the bid.
at up?oes the math should they, could they, will they make a bid? : jeffrey i think -- jeffrey: i think there is a termination fee of a couple billion dollars and if you are basf, you have to offer more than you're on value. i think their market cap is in the 60 billion-range. they will probably have to offers $70 billion. they are letting the bankers know they are interested in doing something really big. maybe it's not this deal. maybe it's after dow and dupont emerged and there are assets that they by then. vonnie: is it worth it? jeffrey: if -- vonnie: would dow collect if basf made a bid?
jeffrey: that would make a question. dow so far.out on they missed out on syngenta. they are sitting there and wondering, what can we do? because this is a space where everyone is consolidating. vonnie: could we have a will go forere basf monsanto? jeffrey: i guess that's possible. no one has indicated that is going on. they are talking about joint ventures. they know each other well. maybe down the road, they can go after monsanto. monsanto is smaller than dupont, so it's a more digestible bites, if you will. but basf is a pretty cautious company. they have not done any big deals. people know they have the money and they could do it, but they never stand up and make the bid. jeffreyok, bloomberg's
mark: now, we are going to talk about rare gems. mostan behind the expensive item of lingerie in the world says that the industry is in trouble. he created a diamond studded broth for victoria's secret. bloomberg in hong kong. -- he created a diamond-studded bra for victoria's secret. >> the diamond and jewelry industry goes through a lot of cycles and is very much impacted
by the economy. the past few years have been difficult. this is the first time we are going through a global slowdown where there is not one market that is revising. reporter: how has china for also down affected the industry? guest: we see a lot more volume at the lower price point. in between is where people are having more difficulty. reporter: how much am i holding right now? guest: you are actually holding $13 million. reporter: oh, my goodness. what is the difference between a good long-term investment and not so much? guest: you go for the rarest gems. best rating and this is flawless. although it is smaller, that has
a tent of yellow, and therefore it is more common than the color of this diamond. if you want to think of investments in rarity, the higher the color, the more value. so, i would go for -- reporter: the $13 million one. guest: of course. given the price of oil, how how have purchasing behaviors changed? for a whilestay low and people will come back to asset classes. this is one of the best asset classes you can invest in. small, portable, very high value. i know you make these forptional fantasy bras victoria's secret. who buys them? sold one. i think it's more of a collectors item. in generally, we make them for
the beauty, for the show. and we keep them. we have one still in our position -- possession, and we will keep it. mark: bloomberg news's shery ahn reporting from hong kong. you can learn more about your destination for the finest ihings in life -- and had to n pursuits on the bloomberg. -- difficult negotiations as the eu meets in brussels to discuss the refugee crisis in turkey. these stories and much more coming up in the next hour. "the european close" is next. ♪
this is "the european close." we are going to take you from new york to london to brussels in the next hour. here is what we are for you today. european union also in emergency -- holds an emergency summit on the crisis, but turkey is making last-minute demands. the warning german chancellor angela merkel has for negotiations ahead. why one group of business owners wants to break away from the european union. could business deals be in jeopardy? mark: donald trump in the lead for the republican nomination. why many in europe are horrified by the idea of a trump presidency, even though in some wa h