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tv   Countdown  Bloomberg  March 9, 2016 1:00am-2:31am EST

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anna: the equity rally in china finally snaps. a downside to the bear rally in the u.s. the republican establishment is dealt a new low as donald trump sweeps to more primaries. markets ponder not if but how the ecb will ease next. welcome to countdown. i'm anna edwards.
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it has just gone 6:00 in the morning here in london. givingsh retailer numbers for the full year. it looks to be in line with estimates. 4.7 billion euros is where the number has come in. the estimate was for 2.9 billion euros. full-yearalking about like for like sales rising by 8.5%. --l-year sales coming in it 57.8. a touch like where the analyst had the full-year gross margin. nomura has been talking about looking for updates on possible additional capital returns. we will see if we get any news on that front. erin mind this is a stock that has been increasingly loved by analysts. we have a lot of upgrades coming through on this one recently.
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rated as a new performer at macquarie. relative to the sector it does have a premium value that trades times retail sector. numbers from the german logistics business, giving us an update, confirming their 2016 target. that will be some comfort to some people who follow the company because it is a business that has issued two cuts to its profit forecast in 2015. so stability was being called for by analysts going into these numbers. saying the eps is coming at 0.55 euros in the fourth quarter. a little bit stronger on the eps havinge previous time,
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as various metrics on where the performance lies right now but the overarching thing is they are concerning their 26 target and that will come as a welcome relief. we heard from them yesterday about returning cash to shareholders. usry roseman will be joining at five past seven u.k. time right here on countdown. let's talk about where we stand in markets overnight. a bit of retrenchment in the u.s. equity session yesterday. let's bring up the risk radar and see how we are performing against various measures of risk appetite at this early hour here on a wednesday. mixed at the moment because we have money coming out of emerging-market current. continued concern about chinese data, and we have goal declining
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for the second day, guided more by the dollar ahead of the ecb. a mixed picture coming through in terms of the risk measures and we are unchanged on the japanese currency. sanders called a major win over hillary clinton, overcoming the dojo -- lead she heldyn ahead of the vote. donald trump had projected wins in the michigan and mississippi primaries. the boe has room for a quality as the outlook for deflation deteriorates. sign ofents are further a shifting debate for the u.k. central-bank with inflation still far below its 2% goal. uncertainty about a potential
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and the chairman of societe generale has said investors may consider their investment if britain were to leave the eu. >> it would create fears of uncertainty and certainly people with think twice before making an investment decision that may turn out not to be optimal. >> mean the former u.k. deputy prime minister nick clegg has rebutted a report by the sun newspaper that the queen expressed misgivings about the european union. it came after claims the monarch told him and other attendees that she was concerned about the direction the eu was taking. broker said hean stole millions of dollars from customers because his brain was hijacked by an addiction to sports gambling was sentenced to
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prison. million dollars under management when he got so deeply in debt that even his bookie expressed concern for him. >> let's check in on the asian markets, very much underway. david english is standing by for an update. wings are red behind you, david. david: very much so. .hat's the color of the day as you mention some of the markets are just closing up shop. asia looks like this, down .7%. thestory very much within energystage is to sell related names. the correlation is still very much intact, commodities leading equities if you will.
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andc materials down 1.8% oil and gas down 1.6%. a few standouts across the continuing selloff. asiamarkets in southeast going against the grain. have a look at the shanghai composite, down about 1% in japan for the day. maybe a little bit down to the japanese yen which was strong for the most part of the trading session. 2.4%hanghai composite down in the last hour of trade. the so-called national team maybe intervening in the last hour of trade. anna, you mention this. of strength bit come through in the u.s. dollar which partly explains why some of these precious metals like
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gold are seeing some downside. , just aboutese yen flat for today's trading session. us there fromin hong kong. asian stocks have fallen by the most in three week with the shanghai composite snapping a six-day winning streak today following a u.s. market selloff yesterday. the s&p 500 has 2% upside and a 20% downside, being called a bear rally. .et's bring in tim hayward he oversees more than 100 billion euros in assets. great to have you on the program. you are something of a bond guy as well. risk sentiment is what he's trying to tap into when he's talking about how this is a bear rally in the united states.
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into context where big been, snapping the longest with thece october fall that we saw on yesterday's session. what do you make of the return we've seen to risk appetite? the financial markets have gotten themselves into more of a financial funk than was necessary given the relatively strong economic data that's emerged during the first quarter. it's a return to that joining up economic data to financial market data that's been driving the rally for the last month. he goes on to say that he prefers g-7 bonds over the u.s., which is to say negative yields instead of positive yields, which is an interesting viewpoint. he's talking about the currency market reaction that we've seen.
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what are your thoughts on that investment call around negative rate and where to put money in the bond space? >> he's talking about negative deposit rates. that is a new experience for us all. yield from further out of the curve is still negative yields for those investors in the fact that he prefers those over the u.s. bonds is an interesting call. anna: what about the united states? i have an interesting chart for you, something more in bucket -- something warren buffett likes to look at. this has rebounded a little bit since the start of 2016. rail freight shipments pulling out of a five-month slop. give us your take on the u.s. right now.
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what are you think of the stock market or risk appetite, it's not always the same as the underlying growth story in the united states. >> the u.s. seems to be growing at around 2%. growth of the winter was slower than expected but that was mostly building of inventories. now it is seeing modest sort of growth. it used to be a factor of three times whatever global growth was. in recent years what is interesting is how it has tailed off. boxcar operators have struggled somewhat in the trade traffic has dropped but the growth hasn't. they used to give you good clues about the state of the economy. has that link broken down a little bit? >> the real-time link is super important.
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jobless claims come out every week, with the usual amount of revisions. and the traffic and lifting from terminals, it was true that the economy had a quieter winter than we had expected, despite the generally warmer weather. now it seems to have picked up again. i was reading an interesting piece yesterday talking about the flattening of the u.s. curve as people have more appetite for the longer in. bonds areger dated some of the best cash investments if you have to invest in high quality government bond markets. there has been some believe that there is convergence in bond if there is convergence in
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economies. you look at europe with exciting growth coming out of germany, europe could outgrow the u.s. in certain quarters. they are pretty close in terms of inflation and growth. we think with a 12 month lag the u.s. should narrow to the german market. anna: great to see you this morning. let's look at what is on the radar for the day ahead. norway releasing a report on its investments in 2015. what have they been doing with their money since we've seen considerably weaker oil prices? then we get u.k. industrial and manufacturing production. at noon we will get u.s. mortgage applications and a decision from the central bank of canada. next, mario draghi's credibility is on the line over his inflation target. can the ecb president convince
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markets he has enough higher power to reignite eurozone growth? that is next. ♪
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.nna: welcome back 17 minutes past 7:00 in frankfurt. profitfastest annual growth in three years as it added stores and expanded online sales. endingome rose 15% january 31. since the 2001 in initial public offering, they have boosted sales more than sixfold through aggressive expansion. google is siding with facebook in a brewing antitrust class. an economist said it's wrong to regulatorst specific
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should be in charge of privacy questions. german competition officials have begun examining whether faced has abused its market dominance by forcing customers allow the use of their data. familiar,to people ice is working with morgan stanley to explore the possibility of a takeover. weresaid last month they in merger talks to create a global exchange worth at least 20 billion pounds. twosche has until march 22 table its offer. citigroup has become the latest wall street bank to signal a dismal start to the year. shares slid after third-quarter revenue from fixed income and equity traded was expected to drop 15 percent on the year. expecting a steeper tolerable for investment banking revenue siding low interest rates and plunging commodity prices as a
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contributing factor. stay with us. you been keeping a night on the market. >> if you look at the msci asia-pacific index, that has fallen the most in three weeks. we are seeing the slop in asian stocks deep in. chinese stocks have snapped a six-day winning streak. asia-pacificsci index. energy companies and raw materials producers leading the declines, suggesting this is being driven by growing concerns over china. bloomberg world exchange market capitalization, this is a great function on the bloomberg and it's in dollars. rally thatthree-week restores almost $5 trillion to the value of equities worldwide halted this week.
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you can see that little drop off in the market capitalization of global stocks. as we've seen stocks decline, we've seen money moving into the end, the world's best performing currency this week. 31 majored against all peers and this is what i've , since january 29. that is when the bank of japan announced it would charge some lenders on excess reserves. it almost seems whatever the boj does, we are not seeing a weaker yen. about the euro. how are investors positioning themselves ahead of the meeting tomorrow? >> there's a lot of pressure on mario draghi this time. it is more question of how he's going to expand. the consensus view is expecting a further cut to the deposit rate but also an expansion of qe. the question is, could the same
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thing happen is with the yen? we are seeing a weaker euro against the dollar today. that is the white line here. i want to show you what is happening with bearish positioning. hedge funds and other leverage raised net bearish positions in the euro in the week ending march 1. bearishase in net positions and it's the first position since december 29. they boosted from 1.5 year low in february according to data from the cftc. whetherhave to see mario draghi can move the currency both with his actions and his words. barton,eaking to mark marin so said the central bank faces pressure.
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>> thursday they will have a new forecast. if the target of inflation at 2% is getting further way, they need to do more than the market expects. by october 2019. >> i think he will. will?is that 100% he >> he will do whatever it takes. anna: we have heard that before. tim hayward is still with us. how are you looking ahead to tomorrow's meeting? are expecting quite a lot from mario draghi. you expect him to cover deposit rates, increase quantitative easing. give us your thoughts ahead of the meeting tomorrow. >> we do expect him to be concerned about preserving the interest margin at commercial
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banks and a tiered system seems to be one of the answers to that. we expect him more to deepen quantitative easing rather than extended. it's a car he can always play at a later date. my concern is what he is really trying to do is used nominal growth and whether these actions actually achieve that. that is my concern. anna: some people are concerned there is not enough assets of the type they said they want to buy available, certainly in line with the p. i was looking at some great bloomberg research which talks about the returns we have seen since the start of quantitative easing. portuguese government debt delivering -5%. do you think they would like to be buying certain things they cannot buy because they are restricted by this straitjacket of a p?
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>> it's the biggest continental government bond market and the third-largest recipient of quantitative easing. most of the money has gone into the german on market which i think is the third-largest. so there's been a mismatch between capitalization and qe focus. portugal has been the one had fiscalt's concerns and that's the reason why it alone had negative returns for this period. >> our guest was talking about how the ecb goes out and buys corporate debt, for example. what is the cremate -- creative moment you're looking for from mario draghi? >> a by bank bonds which have suffered terribly in february. they're sort of a conflict of
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interest between trying to preserve the financial architecture of europe and trying to be a unit holder in some of their capitalization. and how they deal with that conflict. buying stocks is something the japanese have considered. whether they should be buying , it's an idea. >> we will see if they put in any orders for tankers. bloomberg intelligence has tried to mimic what the ecb has been doing. another measurement of inflation called super court inflation. it tracks the changes in prices of goods most closely related to the margin of slack in the economy. apparently the ecb likes to look at this. super core inflation against
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core inflation, they say what is worrying is that although we've seen a balance in core inflation over the last six months, it has not been mimicked by super court inflation. what does it tell you about the headache the ecb is facing? the breakfast the cost of breakfast has equally gone down. what's interesting over the winter is the average european is probably 1000 euros better off than they expected. the cost of heating homes has not increased as much as asked acted and now you're seeing other measures of inflation that are pretty low. that's why confidence is not too bad. all these inflation measures matter. the effect of this has been
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lower expenses and higher confidence. anna: our guest stays with us. ♪
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it's more than just wifi, it can help grow your business. you don't see that every day. introducing wifi pro, wifi that helps grow your business. comcast business. built for business. anna: welcome back. let's get the bloomberg first word news. >> bernie sanders scored a major upset when over hillary clinton in the michigan democratic primary. but clinton took mississippi. donald trump tightened his grip on the republican presidential nomination with projected wins in michigan and mississippi. the s&p 500 has about 2% upside and 20% downside, making for a lousy risk reward trade-off recording to one money manager. he said the recent rebound is a
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bear market rally. bank of england official says the boe has room to ease policy if the outlook for inflation deteriorates. he added that tightening is still more likely over the next two years. his comments are further sign of a shifting debate with inflation still far below its 2% goal. the former u.k. deputy prime has rebutted clegg a report thathe queen expressed misgivings about the european union. she was concerned about the direction the eu was taking. the tabloid cited what it called a reliable source. a former jpmorgan broker said he from millions of dollars customers because his brain was hijacked by an addiction just boards gambling. michael oppenheimer had about 500 clients and almost $90 million under management but got
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so deeply in debt that according to his lawyer, even his bookie expressed sympathy for him. we just got some breaking news coming through from credit agricole. they are talking about their , targeting the year a capital ratio of 16% by 2019. they are talking about their full-year net performance at $4.2 billion. the full-year target for the net infit is about $4.2 billion 2019. a series of targets coming through from the bank. they see annual sales growth above 3% at their savings management unit in their setting out the goals for annual cost savings. 900 million euros in annual cost saving. the ceo took over in may.
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he's trying to make the business key growing in its main european markets even as the sluggish economies and low interest rates can strain of ask profitability. we talked about negative interest rates. elementy a very french to this business. let's talk about what's happening elsewhere. we have some numbers coming through from the german energy space. yesterday'sm rwe in session. posted the 2015 at loss of 7 billion euros, a 3.16 billion loss. that loss exceeding estimates. they are confirming that dividends have a lot of pressure in this sector as many utility businesses have been having to
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put away money to fund germany's move away from nuclear power and they been pressured on many fronts as we talked about yesterday. they are posting record losses on their german power plant write-downs. let's get more breaking news for you. from a coming through retail business over in france, giving us a profit number this morning of 1.40 5 billion euros. a touch light of the estimate, saying the results are affected by economic slowdown in brazil. those profits slumping by 35% on that slowdown in the brazilian economy. the big story, taking aim at the business and they are critical and made a lot of allegations that the management of the financialround engineering, which is denied by the management of the company.
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allergist --il analyst joins us to discuss the numbers. 35%,2015 profit slumping the slowdown in the brazilian economy, was that always going to be a weak spot for brazil? it is the second below expectations number in quick succession because they did guide a bit lower at the end of last year after the q3 trading. so it is more disappointing. but they do have a sort of pure play electronics retailer in brazil which has been badly hit. so that has hurt hit -- hurt them. the food business has not done as well as the big rival. anna: before we talk about brazil, let's finish off on
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casino. is any of it sticking? hadhe point was the casino just about the most complicated corporate structure of any retailer at the beginning of last year and then they made it more complicated during the year. carefullyo look very at how the cash flows work in this company because there are an awful lot of minority stakes. wasmain point that the debt essentially in france and the french business was growing weaker with something that was well recognized and i think the big point of contention at the moment is, will french profits can we see2016, and some of the underlying improvement in sales in rants translate into profits?
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the management denied that's the case but the battle of words continues. what do you make of these numbers out of the spanish retailer? >> good and bad. the good's same-store sales which are 9.5% up in the second half and implicitly privately even stronger than that in the final order, which given the woes in apparel retailing across europe for many people, it's an absolutely outstanding number. and also within that is the main brand continues to be the , which ispart astonishing. against that we've got a slightly weaker number of the gross margin which suggests a lot of discounting to actually get there.
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>> if the premium price business relative to the sector. this is one stock that some of your colleagues like. >> indeed. the rate at which spain has written repaying bank debt has slowed down and let more money in their pocket and given them a greater chance to grow. that has been helpful in driving the macro economic data than many expected. it didn't quite work in the same way in france which made spain more of the casino's problem. we mentioned brazil which is a country and the trouble and deep recession. on the currency chart it was one of the second best currencies. chartthis is a five-year that shows deterioration in the trend is the rising
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the brazilian reality. things are turning around a little bit in 2016. a lot of expectation being built. i was reading about whether the stock market is not looking so overboard since 2003. a lot of it is to do with the politics and what action will be taken against them. >> am not a great expert on the equity market. the politics is a mess and looks like it's getting worse. the rate at which imports are declining in the retail sector is dramatic. the exports have fallen as well, but not as much. which wete of change have never seen before. many emerging market countries having horrible currency performance in the past, exports
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falling but not quite as much, and that's turning it around from being overvalued currencies to actually creating some value which we expect to really come through in the second half of the year. anna: thank you very much, tim hayward and thank you john for joining us this morning. oil prices in new york trading a little higher ahead of government data on stockpiles. elliott has been looking at details in the oil story. the recent rally in oil prices, is it running out of steam? elliott: we will have to see how the year pans out but given what is happening to oil prices and at the start of this year, it's been a pretty decent year so far. prices up for the month of march despite those to clients we saw on tuesday. rising a little bit today ahead onthat u.s. government data
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stockpiles. the concern among analyst is until such time as demand begins to exceed supply, you're not going to get any meaningful rally going on despite the hope deal toe that the freeze output at current levels may actually come to something. of course that only comes into effect if everyone agrees to do so. given that the stockpiles are , as theng to grow stockpiles continue to grow many analysts think it will be hard to get any kind of meaningful rally go -- going. we got a u.s. cargo oil making its way towards china, the first oil shipment to china since the u.s. lifted its moratorium on
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exports back in december. no guaranteere is that a deal to freeze output will come into effect. , thes one of things constant talk about the freeze in output. how much detail do we have on that yet? elliott: we don't know whether it's going to come into effect, but we also don't know if others may not sign up to it. if libya gets its act together that could put more oil on the market. one consultant described the deal as a joke. bp uses moreo of diplomatic language. >> people want to see the reality of this agreement before they rely on it. let's see what happens.
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russia is doing quite well in production because the ruble is so we. the cost basis down heavily so they can keep going. let's see what happens over time. these agreements require great skill to be made to work. elliott: in other words, don't hold your breath. anna: elliott gotkine joining us there from tel aviv. let's bring back tim hayward. you were listening to that analysis. where do you see oil heading? >> it's really you have a two-year decline in oil followed by a further decline. we've had a precipitous decline on it to your basis going back to 1980. we would expect based on past behavior for the old price to rally in the next year. perhaps several be more balanced
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by supply and demand by the end of the year. winter and a mild that has caused consumption to fall a little bit. but the europeans still consume 14 billion barrels every year and china continue to increase the rate at which it's importing oil. so the demand side needs to improve a little but the supply side is changing already. the deal would be helpful in further bringing it back, but to expect the oil price to go down yet again would be unusual. about how hear more they've been managing their funds this year. it seems to have permeated various classes. actually crediting that with some of the turmoil we have seen it markets. the turmoil has spread, hasn't it?
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>> it's more newsworthy to report that they are redeeming investments made over previous years. the more newsworthy than benefit that consumers have had courtesy of that milder winter, the lower import prices. they are probably not consuming it as much as we expected. it's more dramatic for the markets, redeeming their units. thank you for joining us this morning, tim hayward joining us this morning on countdown. world's 400 richest people see their wealth fall by more than $400 billion. find out who are the biggest losers. ♪
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anna: welcome back. let's get the bloomberg business flash. >> the fastest annual profit growth in three years, adding stores and expanding online sales. the world's largest clothing retailer said net income rose to the end of january. since its 2001 ipo, they have boosted sales more than sixfold through aggressive expansion. intercontinentalexchange is said to be lining up financing for its bid for the london stock exchange. it's working with morgan stanley to explore the possibility of a takeover. they said last month they were in merger talks to create a worth atchange player least 20 billion pounds. deutsche has until march 22 to
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table its offer. the biggest ever annual loss after writing down billions of euros. germany's yard's till the company said its net loss more than doubled 2015 from a year loster, missing the predicted by 11 analyst survey by bloomberg. that is your bloomberg business flash. anna: that's get more on those numbers coming through from the german utility eon. ryan, give us the size and scope of this loss. in 2014, but money the loss last your was more than double what they lost in 2014. the analysts we survey anticipated a loss of about 6.4 billion euros and it actually came in at 7 billion.
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if you look at the underlying net income, it was exactly what , 1.60 5 billion euros. the issue was all about the write-downs. a background for that. the german energy market is in flux. >> the reason they have the write-downs is in germany they made a political decision of a few years back that they will give priority when it comes to access to the grid to power generators that use alternative energies. even though you have oil and gas prices at record lows, some of the big traditional players that generate electricity from oil and gas are getting hit hardest. that is pretty much what's responsible for the right down. down the value of their power plants in germany. what is ironic is that the end
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of last year they wrote down more than eight knowing dollars on the back of declining oil and gas, which if it was not germany, it should be helping the bear market. the ceo saying the course ahead would be tougher in longer than anticipated. it's taking longer to adjust to the new regime they are having to operate under. >> to be fair, i don't think angela merkel has made a decision about moving to nuclear energy are returning to nuclear energy. they were thinking about the fact that oil and gas prices could plummet. what we have now is a confluence of what could be economically really good, but happens to be dirty. this is a real problematic spot for german industry right now. you very much for bringing us the latest on those numbers from the energy
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business. this completing the picture around the big players in the german energy space. the fastest annual profit growth in three years, but the owner has seen his wealth decline by $3.4 billion so far this year. europe's richest person the fifth biggest loser on the bloomberg billionaire index. the index is having its biggest two-month decline ever. now we have more on who has been hit the hardest. tell us who has been hit the hardest and who are the biggest losers in january and february in markets? >> the biggest loser has been jet these also amazon. last year he was the biggest
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gainer. loseis rate is about to and then some. he's lost $9.8 billion. anna: this function tells us about these alien errors. he is at number seven. has he fallen down the rankings or do they not move much in terms of relative performance? >> he has dropped a couple of rankings but generally, he has stayed relatively static. he was the biggest gainer last year. it's over $140 million a day that he lost. so it is pretty sizable. if you look at someone like his 70 in the context of billion dollars fortune, it's less than 5% of his net worth. anna: is it something they have in common?
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>> people have really taken a big loss, tied to the public equity markets. that is where you have seen the most volatility and negative returns. but it is tied to industries as well. the prince in saudi arabia has lost a tremendous amount of wealth. company had a really bad start to the year. is he the biggest loser that springs to mind? >> he absolutely would be. his peak was in may 2014. he is worth 43% less than he was been. is approaching half his peak network in only two years. rich go is the place to go
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to keep track on how those are performing. are's tell you how markets performing right now. the shanghai composite and china generally looking weak today, down by 1.75%. the hang seng down .3% and the nikkei down .8%. the s&p 500 weaker by the close over in the united states. what does it tell us about the day ahead? will we break this negative pattern when we get into the european trading day and the pattern in the united states? u.s. futures are pointing hyder -- pointing higher. time until we start seeing some trading over in the united state but were up around .2%.
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a cfo in a speak to few minutes time to confirm their outlook, something many analysts were looking for. we will discuss that when we come back. ♪ .. ..
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anna: stock selloff. the equity rally in china snaps. trump ops the stakes. the republican establishment is dealt a new blow as donald trump sweeps to more primaries. under pressure. markets ponder not if but how the ecb will ease. says draghi's- credibility is at stake. ♪ ♪
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."lcome to "countdown i am anna edwards. just past 7:00 in the morning in london. let's look at where the futures will be opening up this wednesday morning. it looks as if we might be marginally positive at the start trade, but not by a great deal. the ftse 100, up about 12 points. marginally positive across european equity markets, the expectation being established at the moment, one hour away from the start of european equity trade. that is really picking up from what has been a negative session over the last 24 hours, negative in the u.s., negative in asia. let's get the bloomberg first word news. caroline hyde joins us. hasline: bernie sanders scored a major win over hillary clinton in the michigan democratic primaries.
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he overcame a double-digit lead she held in polls. clinton took mississippi. donald trump tightened his grip on the republican presidential nomination with wins in michigan and mississippi. bank of england official martin wheels says the boe has room to ease policy if inflation deteriorates, but he added that tightening is still more likely. anetheless, his comments are further sign of the shifting debate at the central bank with inflation below the 2% goal. the pound suffered its biggest drop in almost two weeks as uncertainty about brexit incr eases. the chairman of societe generale said investors might reconsider their investment if britain were to leave the eu. >>a brexit would create uncertainty. certainly, people would think twice he for making an beforeent decision --
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making an investment decision. thank you very much. let's check in on the asian market session. last we spoke to, things looked gloomy over in the asian equity markets. how do they look now? 60 minutes after, we are looking better, so that is the key message as we close on the trading day. we are still down overall, although a lot of these markets are a little bit above session lows. that is the silver lining. we are seeing more pockets of green, although the risks are to the downside when you talk about equity markets. there is a strong argument to be shot tot these markets the upside. resources, mining, energy-related shares, a lot of are really in asia
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underpinned because of the rally we saw in commodity prices. it was a mining of the risk positions. it was a strong dollar story and strong yen story. oftty much risk aversion what hopefully is the tail end of what you mentioned, this 24 hours of an extension of a decline across risk assets. thank you, david english with an update. deutsche post has reported fourth-quarter profit that beat estimates. the company reiterated its forecast for 2016 between 3.4 billion euros. -- larry roizen joins us rosen joins us.
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could you flesh out for me where the optimism is coming from? why do you think you will be able to achieve that kind of uplift in ebit performance? larry: good morning. we are actually very confident we are going to be able to perform in the previous ebit guidance range we have given for 2016. i think there are a number of factors. first of all, we had a very strong end to the year. we had a record quarter in the fourth quarter in our current and we have had an expected good start into the year in 2016. most important is that we got a lot of homework done on the strategic plan we have, our so-called strategy 2020. we made a lot of investments.
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we got a change in price regulation for the postal business in germany. we see continued strong growth in our express business and parcel business. anna: if i could just ask you around the outlook for little more color, because in the statement, you are saying you cannot count on strong economic tailwinds, so some might put that statement together with your optimistic comments you just made to be and wonder why you are so different from that economic backdrop. a little bit more detail on why you can be so confident. well, we see a moderate economic growth scenario, somewhere around 3% global gdp growth. we think we can thrive and be very successful in that kind of environment. doingof the things we are
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and a lot of how we will define success for our businesses is homegrown, such as i.t. renewal, our forwarding business, the turnaround plan, restructuring we have done. some of our businesses are not that sensitive to the economic cycle like our express business. wen in a 3% growth world, can still be very successful. anna: you talked yesterday about returning cash to shareholders. could you give us more detail on what the motivation is behind that? is this a sign of confidence? what kind of picture are you trying to give to investors? ry: yeah, i think that's exactly right. it's an expression of our confidence in our strategy and the direction the group is heading. it's also very consistent with a
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finance policy we have had in place since 2010. we said if we generated more free cash flow than we needed to wevice the regular dividend would return that to shareholders either in the form of a share buyback or a special dividend. current circumstances dictate a share buyback, and we announced that yesterday. all, it's an expression of our confidence about this year and the following years for our company. anna: can you tell us a bit about your relationship with amazon? i know some of the german press have been writing about how they think amazon has been taking a bite out of your business where they started doing deliveries. what kind of early impact are you seeing from this petition and how -- this competition, and how is your relationship going to develop? larry: we have a great relationship with amazon.
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they are one of our biggest customers in the e-commerce area in germany and increasingly outside of germany as our strategy takes us outside of germany with our parcel and e-commerce business. yes, there has been some move on the part of amazon in terms of setting up their own delivery services. day, we thinkthe they are going to remain a great customer and great business partner. the most likely scenario we see for them or other large e-commerce players is to participate in niches of the parcel delivery market and not a complete network such as we have. at the same time, they will continue to be great customers. we have looked very carefully at the different scenarios, and we
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are very comfortable with the guidance we have given for that business. it will commit -- continue to be a dynamically growing business, and we are very optimistic about the future for it. great to talk to you. thank you for joining us, larry rosen. asian stocks have fallen the most in three weeks today with the shanghai composite snapping a six-day winning streak following u.s. market selloffs yesterday. meanwhile, jeffrey good lack says the s&p 500 has 2% upside and a 20% downside,: the recent rebound a "bear rally." let's bring in rory. ach talking about a bear market, talking about a bounce we have seen.
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how do you view this optimism give or take a couple days and equity markets? i think the overriding theme that we are thinking about is, yes, there is going to be volatility in all sorts of asset classes, and i think we are trying to look through it. i don't know if there is going to be a 20% correction. it feels like the s&p 500 is at reasonably elevated levels, but i can't speculate. it feels like we have had a bit of a run. maybe a small correction, i guess. anna: are you minded to flee towards safer havens or minded to take on more risk? seen the quality versus value debate, and it feels as if the underlying fears around the economy are not as great as they are in reality. i think we would be erring
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towards some of the value trades, more opportunistic in many areas of the market such as material or banks or technology where there is growth. anna: the banking sector in europe -- rory: i think banks have been hit a lot with the negative interest rate environment. banks are trading on attractive valuations. return on equity is improving. i think you have to be specific in the banks you are looking at. capital buffers are improving, and we have seen with companies like lloyd's, for example, where the cash return story looks compelling. anna: is the central bank story the key for you yet though is that guiding your investment strategy, or will you stop picking around individual businesses? rory: for us, it is definitely looking through the noise. has dug as if draghi
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himself a bit of a whole. i'm not entirely sure what more he can do. another 10 basis points out the deposit rate and an extension of qe in terms of scope or scale, i guess there are things he can do at the margin, but i'm not a deflation bear. i think we are at the point where prices have come down a lot. we need to see that feed through into the underlying inflation, core inflation. we have seen a drop down to 0.7% in europe, but it doesn't feel to me as if we are going into a stagflation environment. i think we need to give the markets time to feature into the underlying number. anna: a lot of that depends on what happens with energy prices. how do you invest around commodities? we have seen a rebound among some of the share prices of the commodity players, the likes of glencore, for example. rory: we look to the
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fundamentals, supply response in the energy space. it felt to us that the excess supply story was becoming overplayed. energy prices were getting hammered into the 20's, and we took a few that things were going to normalize, and it was market volatility pushing the price down. we took a longer term view, and we are being very optimistic. anna: rory bateman stays with us. as european banks flounder, cricket agricole set its sights on profits of more than 4.2 billion euros in 2019. more analysis with rory when we return. ♪
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anna: welcome back. this is "countdown. the time is" 7:17 .
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has reported its biggest ever annual loss, and gas-fivecoal powerplants by billions of dollars. missed the full year 6.4 billion euro loss predicted by 11 analysts surveyed by bloomberg. indo tax has reported its fastest annual profit growth in three years. it expanded online sales. the world's largest clothing retailer said that income rose $.18. since its 2001 initial public offering, the owner of the zara brand has boosted its sales more than sixfold. intercontinentalexchange is said to be running up financing of its bid for the london stock exchange. according to people familiar, the ice is working with morgan stanley to explore the possibility of a takeover.
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deutsche has until march 22 two table its offer. credit agricole has said it aims to boost annual profit to more than 4.2 billion euros in 2019, that as it cuts costs in insurance and asset management. by logic million euros in cost savings are planned over the next three years -- 900 million euros in cost savings are planned over the next three years. reporternch banks floppy a benedictine he joins us from paris. what is the focused of credit agricole's new strategy? fabio: we can say credit agricole is trying to make it simple with investors, and in no way, it is saying more of the
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same. we want to grow in retail banking, insurance, businesses which are steady. the message they are trying to convey to investors is, we are a steady boat. are,n go on with what we and they want to increase net profits over this period of three years by 11 billion euros and reach a level of 4.2 billion, which would make them to a level of profitability, which they consider at 10% in 2019. a strong focus on retail banking and asset management. inhave a majority stake almond eye, one of the largest asset managers in europe. anna: clearly adapting to an external environment that is changing them. -- then.
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fabio: yes, they are facing this low interest rate environment, growth that is softer by day. definitely, they are cutting costs. fromis the promise management. the question isn't whether the central bank will ease but how. former ecb executive board member narendra says the central bank faces pressure. >> on thursday, they were having new forecasts. if this target of inflation at 2% is getting further away, they need to do more. i think the market expects them to do more. >> by the end of his tenure in
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2019, will he reach the target? >> i think he will. >> is that 100%? >> there is no certainty. he will do whatever it takes. u.k. rory bateman, head of asset management. him talking about how the ecb must reach its target because credibility is at stake. has a mission, if you like, and he has stated that to the market. the headline rate looks particularly weak because you have a 65% decline in the oil price. we know about the cost deflation we have seen. to me, it's about letting those commodity prices work through the system.
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comparisons get much easier. my suspicion is core inflation will look better. aghi will be a beneficiary of that. anna: he might make reference to this, which is the inflation looking forward. this gives us a perception from markets will be on a five-your time horizon. this has been a headache for draghi and the ecb. do you read anything into that bounce? five years is just the markets interpretation of what will happen. has put as if draghi his name on this market. it has been sold down aggressively over the last year. it feels overdone in my view. i think we've got to wait for prices to normalize.
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inflation will probably pick up. anna: is this expectation around agi, the market has expectations because they were disappointed in december? picking up in terms of commodity prices. six weeks ago, the world was over. two weeks ago, things were looking much more improved. we have seen much more of a risk-on environment. anna: what are you expecting to see from draghi? we were talking about the usual set of expectations, which seems to be a 10-basis point cut in the deposit rate, possibly going to to tears on the deposit rate, learning from japan. are you expecting anything different, anything creative? market willk the
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have a muted response to the cot. the scope and scale of the qe. could he do something out of the ordinary? probably. i just don't know what it will be. anna: how would the market respond to something creative? we were talking earlier on, and they said, we don't think draghi is going to do this, but they could go around buying oil. he said, maybe they will stress they can buy a range of assets. maybe corporate debt would be the thing. to my mind, we need some sort of fiscal response. anna: nothing then come in that sense. rory: if there were some proposal, that the monetary authorities were going to do something with the fiscal authorities of the european union -- maybe it is immigration related -- there may be something that has to go hand in
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hand with the monetary response. how do you go about picking banks to invest in? you said some banks look attractive to you. rory: from our perspective, i fabio was identifying it is keeping things simple. it's more of a domestic play, cash generation, identifying companies that are generating cash. the investment banks are not doing it right now. it's a challenging environment for investment banks in terms of regulatory requirements. credit agricole, certainly emphasizing the retail, are today -- aren't they? good to see you, rory bateman. here is your day ahead. first, norway's sovereign wealth fund releases a report on its investments at 9:00 u.k. time.
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what have they been buying and selling? then we get u.k. industrial manufacturing production numbers later on. then u.s. mortgage applications. that will do it for "countdown." a little bitst about's at the start of the european trade. ♪
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it's more than just wifi, it can help grow your business. you don't see that every day. introducing wifi pro, wifi that helps grow your business. comcast business. built for business. guy welcome to: "on the move." we are counting down to the european open. i am guy johnson alongside hans nichols. here is what we are watching. seven years into the third longest rally in history, why do investors hate stocks so much? gundlach says the s&p has 2% upside, 20% downside. why does he think the recent bouts is a bear rally?


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