tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg March 9, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm EST
from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i am vonnie quinn in for betty liu. stocks moving higher. gains in energy shares. a decline in telecom as investors await tomorrow's ecb decision. construction starts for new homes have tumbled. what will it take to get construction moving again? the ceo of the national association of homebuilders is our guest. reports fors square the first time since going public. shares are up 27%, but new growth is slowing. are competitors like visa and paypal taking a toll? we are one hour away from closing. julie hyman has been keeping an eye. julie: a lot of investors are
really waiting for tomorrow and the ecb's latest decision. in the meantime, the dow little changed, just up 1/10 of 1%. energy and technology are the two groups leading gains, as you will see from the bloomberg. in telecoms. a little change in consumer discretionary. energy amtech are the two groups that have consistently been doing -- energy and tech are the two groups that have consistently been doing well today. financials -- that's a group we've been talking a lot about, this seven year anniversary of the bull market. it's worth mentioning what has happened to the financials, not just during the bull market, but even before the bull market. take a look at this chart that compares the financials' performance with the broader s&p 500 going all the way back to 2007. we have seen the s&p 500 make new records. that happened last year.
the financials have had trouble sort of getting there. they have lagged. they have helped lead during this bull market, if you date it to below 2009. but if you go back to the financial crisis, that is one of the groups that has still not sort of regained its power. definitely oil helping things along today. julie: most definitely. as we know has seen a rebound recently, extending its gains up to 5% after this morning's inventory report. a drop in gasoline inventory, that the market is taking as a good sign. the rebound we are seeing today in energy stocks, a strong one, but it does not wipe out yesterday's losses, which were steve for the s&p 500 -- steep for the s&p 500 energy index. two standouts with an energy, chesapeake energy, which according to bloomberg news is
considering the sale of its oklahoma assets, and chevron, rising after an upgrade and after reassuring investors it will defend it dividend -- defend its dividend. many have been forced to cut their dividend. vonnie: goodwill hunting for chevron. thank you so much, julie hyman. let's get a check of the headlines with mark crumpton. in california, the final goodbye for former first lady nancy reagan is underway. her body will lie in repose today and tomorrow at the ronald reagan presidential library in simi valley, california. the funeral is friday, which was planned down to the smallest details by the former first lady herself. she will be laid to rest next to her husband, president ronald reagan, on the grounds of the library. are atyoungest voters the center of an election dispute in the swing state just days before the primary there. at issue, whether the teenagers
can vote in the presidential primary race. ohio laws allow 17-year-olds who turned 18 before the fall election to vote, but not on ballot issues or on political party candidates. bernie sanders is suing ohio. the secretary of state -- is suing ohio, the secretary of state, over the limitations. donald trump received a tax credit usually reserved for middle-class taxpayers. the billionaire and presidential front-runner for the republican party received a property tax credit for people with incomes of less than $500,000. the perk was only $302 off of his tax bill, but new york wants the money back, saying the tax benefit was an error. a spokesman for trump's campaign says he was unaware of the break. the u.s. senate has given final approval to a bill attended to impose -- it requires the white house to create a team of officials from
different agencies at least six months before election day. the team would develop ways to smooth the transition from one president in the next. the bipartisan measure now heads to president obama. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i'm mark crumpton. back to you. vonnie: breaking out of new zealand. the country's central bank has cut at the interest rate to 2.25 % from 2.5%. it is a surprise. most economists had forecasted no change. if you look at the kiwi, it is tumbling versus the u.s. dollar, a tumblet 1.4948 now, of 0.8%. back to the markets, we will speak about this with our next guest as well, u.s. stocks heading higher. kevin caron is a market strategist and portfolio manager. kevin, the new zealand bank,
just in time for this conversation on in fact, reducing interest rates, because the economy is suffering from a weaker kiwi. kevin: we would expect that. most of the places we look around the world outside of our own borders are suffering in terms of their economy. when you look at commodity not ative economies, i'm all surprised to see that they are taking action to stimulate the economy. vonnie: they still have 3% real gdp growth, but i guess the fear hashat this sickness that been traveling around the world could impact the economy much more than that. --in: yeah, and i think that if you think about where we are, you have places like brazil, in recession, russia, in recession, canada, in recession. the problems that are moving around emerging markets are being focused on. now that we are moving into a period where we will have not
only the european central bank, but also the bank of japan and our own fed, getting ready to talk about interest rates the next week or two, i would not be surprised to see more accommodative language, at least, out of central banks. vonnie: the u.s. dollar continuing to spike versus the tumbling new zealand dollar. plus, tomorrow morning, we will get the ecb decision, possibly a move further into negative territory. you say that's going to be the case. kevin: i think it's likely we will see the european union do more. i would not be surprised to see an addition to their kiwi program, maybe another 10 billion a month in terms of purchases. i would not be surprised to see them extend maybe what they are talking about doing. more from europe is necessary, given their very low levels of inflation over there. here in the united states, it is also likely that we are going to pass on a rate increase, but i would expect to see a far more dovish method out of the fed
then we did just a few months we did justed than a few months ago. vonnie: how will the fed frame that dovishness? kevin: we do not have a lot of inflation here in the united states. there is still some slack in the labor market, but that has been coming down. when you look at the indicators -- if you look at market-based indicators, credit spreads, stress within the banking system, you have to conclude that the data has been, by and , consequently,d that's why market expectations are moving off the ideal that the fed is going to move. it's going to be harder for the fed to get back to the target rate. vonnie: and we are seeing the typical reaction in new zealand. stocks are rising after that 1/4-point decrease in the main interest rate as the kiwi tumbles. could that be a reaction to
china and the fact that trade is deteriorating in china? kevin: yes, i think so. but, of course, when we look at china, what we recognize there is that things are slowing. it's very hard to get an accurate assessment of what kind of activity is actually occurring in china, but the direction has been down and all of the data we have been seeing, whether it is direct they coming out of china, official statements, or indirect data, in terms of take close -- trade flows, the general message has been pretty clear -- that things are slowing. vonnie: you at stifel, you are pretty constructive on the u.s. economy, as evidenced by the jobs report and so forth. where do you see treasuries going and the yield curve? sure. our overall call on the u.s. equity market is more favorable than the rest of the world. consequently, we have been overweight in the united states. when we think about the data, it has been fairly weak. we have to call it for what it
is. the implement data, yes, it's good. but that's not a very good leading indicator. most of the data we have been following over the last year, year and a half, has been fairly weak. our overall call has been somewhat cautious. we have been underweight equities in our asset portfolios. our own fed, which had been in the forefront during the last cycle, has really liked behind some of the other banks, which have been far more aggressive in easing. consequently, we have had a stronger dollar. vonnie: constructive on equities, but what about treasuries? where do you see the 10-year going? kevin: i think the curve is flattening substantially. we don't see it going much farther in terms of flattening curve without a recession. our base case scenario is not bestecession we expect recession. we expect to see those rates working higher. kevin caron, thank you
very much, market strategist at stifel. coming up, we will have new home sales. they are still well below the 25-year moving average. the ceo of the national association of home builders joins us. and maximizing returns. we will talk to a fund manager, charles kantor, about his biggest short positions. and here is a look at the s&p's huge run in the bull market. ♪
markets." i'm vonnie quinn. location -- chipotle has a boston location that temporarily closed after four employees became ill. no employees have illnesses connected to the closure. chipotle has been reeling from a food safety crisis since early november involving an outbreak of e. coli enterovirus. --e. coli and no rotavirus and norovirus. oak hill advisors joins the list of independent firms fundraising . the investment firm is looking to raise $2 billion for its latest fund. if it meets its fund-raising targets, it will be 78% bigger than its predecessor. chesapeake energy is considering a sale of some of its holdings
in oklahoma. that is according to people familiar with the matter, who say the move could bring -- that is our bloomberg business flash. on to our national homebuilders association. announced it is going to exit some markets. news coming as sentiment is dipping for the home building community. so, what's ahead for real estate? jerry howard is the ceo of the national association of home builders. he joins us now. why are they not turning out? jerry: at the higher end of the market, you are seeing a situation where those buyers are concerned about the overall health of the stock market and investments in general. low end of the market,
household formations that are just coming into play postrecession are forcing a lot of people into the rental market. multifamily construction is very strong. there is still a certain amount of hesitancy on the part of the first time home buyers. those who are trying to get in our being buoyed by low mortgage yous, but, the fact is, as mentioned, land costs and labor costs are making the first time priors -- prices higher than first-time buyers are really comfortable with. vonnie: what about beyond this? these were the excuses we were hearing last year and before, the difficulty of finding prime land, the tightness of financial conditions, so forth. are we not any further on? : in terms of land, i think you are seeing a certain amount of inventory come back on the market. that's probably a problem, but not as much as labor. the availability and cost of labor is something that is still really lagging behind. duringsix-year period
the recession, people who were involved in the construction of the home, carpenters, plumbers, hvac people, masons, got completely out of the industry, and it takes a while to completely retrain people coming into those career paths to be ready to work on the construction of a home. and during the course of that time, there is a backlog. while, ing to be a think, before we have an adequate supply of labor on a national level in the homebuilding sector. vonnie: what are some of the comments in the report? hovnanian said when he announced that hovnanian was pulling out of the market that they are focused on deleveraging balance sheets and maximizing profitability. how healthy are homebuilders as a group? jerry: obviously, i cannot speak for anyone homebuilding -- any one homebuilding company. the cost of land and the cost of
labor when it is available -- that's pushing things a little bit. down,t gets pushed so far particularly in the first-time homebuyer market, you can only lower the crisis so much before it is not worth building the houses. that's why this segment of the market is seeing some bits and starts in the recovery. what about the interest rates, the idea that the fed might be raising four times this year? does that have an effect on confidence? rates are still low enough that if people want to get into the mortgage market, i think it is an appropriate time. the credit for homebuilders themselves, the credit they used to do -- to buy and develop and do the construction of the property, it's still pretty constrained. that's something we would like to see eased at some point. vonnie: we have not seen too many comments from the candidates. have you -- the world isody in
saying this is the strangest election cycle we've ever had. from our perspective, it's exactly that. in january, we had 60,000 men and women who work in the home building sector, altogether in las vegas, we asked every presidential candidate to come and speak to them. they all declined. mr. trump was in las vegas at the time and inclined to come and talk to our members. vonnie: what is the biggest concern of your members when it comes to policy? jerry: that only john kasich and secretary clinton have said anything about housing policy. vonnie: what do they want changed? the housing finance system is still in limbo. we would like the presidential candidates to address the future of the housing finance system as part of this campaign cycle. it's important to our society and our economy. vonnie: tell us one more time -- do you think it will improve? jerry: yes, absolutely. vonnie: our thanks to jerry howard, national association of homebuilders' ceo.
vonnie: this is "bloomberg markets." i am vonnie quinn. we are nearing the close of trading, just about 40 minutes to go. julie hyman is standing by now with how the options market is trading. julie: thank you so much. joining me for today is momentum's stock strategist. he is out in chicago at the cboe. we have been talking a lot today this seven-year bull
market and how it is sort of the most hated bull market in history. we have seen outflows from funds during it. people have been calling for its demise for a long time. and you've talked about that in that the to me today, sentiment surrounding even the recent bounce we have seen has not been great. why is that? >> i don't know. it's like we are all battle scarred from the dip down to the 666 level, that apocalyptic intraday low on march 9, 2009. it's in the back of our heads this whole time. this rally -- it's like everybody has been waiting for the other shoe to drop. you draw the trendline. in 1980 two where we bounced yesterday, it's like people are waiting for that to crack. everybody wants to get short. julie: in terms of near-term catalysts, i know a lot of
people are looking to the at -- the ecb tomorrow and awaiting more stimulus. are you seeing that play out in the options market at all in terms of bets people are placing? david: yeah. i think what you are seeing is definitely the event risk with the ecb, but you also have the .ed next week everybody is wondering what's going to happen then. and then we have the triple or coming up that same week. there is a lot of stuff coming up in the near-term. the small-cap rally has come off of the low. it has been all the ugly stocks that nobody really likes, the oil, the regional banks, the mining stocks, the ugliest orphans. they got adopted on the same day. the small-cap started to rally. as you saw yesterday, we had a huge down day. we are not even bouncing that much. i'm selling into this little bounce that we have here on the small caps. julie: definitely, yesterday,
noticed that the russell 2000 and the russell 2000 oil group was particularly hit by what you are describing. that said, since the lows on february 11, small caps have done better. they had done worse going in. but they have done better than large caps. why do you think that is going to end and how are you trading it? trade it is a high beta on the way up. it's going to be the high beta that tells you on the way down. you have more volatile names inside of the russell, and that index will bounce a lot more. the russell is more of a domestically inclined index. you don't have the international exposure. the way that i'm playing this is i want to go out to march 24, after some of this event risk takes place, and i want to get te russell 2000 etf's, buy he 107 puts, sell the 102s.
it looks like i'm getting a net debit of -- julie: we will be watching the iwm to see how it performs going out past ecb, fed, quad witc hing. thed bartosiak, giving us insights today. vonnie: thank you so much. still ahead on "bloomberg markets." of shorting stocks and going long the best way to keep your portfolio in the green? we will have charles kantor. ♪ . .
mark crumpton has the first word headlines this afternoon. mark: hillary clinton and bernie sanders will debate tonight in miami, one day after senator inders'surprise when michigan. polls had mrs. clinton with a double-digit lead heading into the contest. primaries next tuesday include florida, illinois, and ohio. the republican national committee has filed two lawsuits seeking e-mails and records from mrs. clinton's tenure as secretary of state. the first seeks electronic records and the second is for comedic nation's between senior state department officials and mrs. clinton's presidential campaign. there were at least 34 civil suits involving mrs. clinton's time at state. formalh is leading with rivals in miami this week. the former florida governor may be considering an endorsement ahead of the state's primary next week.
to meet withing ted cruz, marco rubio, and john kasich. no meeting is scheduled with donald trump. the united nations says substantive syrian peace talks will begin within days. a cease-fire has reduced violence, though there has been some fighting. plansn. envoy for syria with the assad regime and the opposition no later than monday. global news 24 hours a day powered by our toy 400 journalists and more than 150 news euros around the world. down tobefore we get the nasdaq, i want to repeat the news out of new zealand -- markets close in about 30 minutes here but opened in new zealand 30 minutes ago and we got a rate reduction from the central bank, about 25 aces points and 2.35%. --ill show you the reaction the new zealand dollar tumbling on the news.
the u.s. dollar is rising substantially. figures thereg for the qe1 50. it appears it is going to go down to the wire in the u.s. to see if we finish in the green. abigail doolittle is live at the nasdaq. abigail: after some volatility this morning, it appears the nasdaq will finish higher. but it is difficult to know. losses --ering its paring its losses, making for a little bit of the green. in terms of biotech, it may be down less than it was before. news lateter yesterday hit that a new medicare pilot campaign will be lost -- will be launched changing the way medicare part b is reimbursed.
this biotech giant is down 5%, pretty remarkable, considering it is not company specific news and points to the idea whether there is a macro question as to whether investors will be spooked while of this like they were last summer when politicians raise concerns run high drug prices. that sparked the worst biotech bear market since 2000. a bigger question could be whether this leads to the nasdaq overall. vonnie: but we are still in the green. abigail: some of the big tech names are all trading higher, but the runaway winner today is blue buffalo pet products. the stock is up more than 20% and could be a short squeeze. the company is looking at 10% revenue growth going forward. investors are excited and the price is up above its ipo.
always an interesting one down at the nasdaq. portfolio strategies lee strives to reduce exposure, but what are the benefits? we're going to talk to a senior portfolio manager at newberger berman that manages the long short fund. rather than a tolling the benefits of being a little short and a little long, tell me why you'd like to be invested? think it gives opportunity to make money on both sides of the portfolio and even though volatility we have seen in the market, that helps so it's better make money then getting 0%. i guess the reward is worth it. let's just give some of your positions -- you are long
home depot, a consumer play, i guess. do you have a different philosophy for the shorts? guest: on the long side of the portfolio, we are looking to be long-term investors. we thinkort side, about it separately. itselfecurity stands by pairing -- we could like both of them, we could think about the investing that way. vonnie: are you looking purely at u.s. equities? guest: we live in a global world and everything is interconnected. you have to understand the said drives a lot of it. thatany of the companies
dominate investing landscape today are global and i think the distinctions are around what is u.s. versus european or asian is probably miss founded. vonnie: you are pretty much all in for consumer discretionary. guest: consumer discretionary is away from where you see bifurcation. bet on oilmply a flow, therefore the consumer has more money. long side,on the every investment we make their i think through. what's the national traffic driver versus 20 years ago? side,d say on the short we are much more likely to be short the traditional big box,
overexposed to expensive real estate, laugh -- lack of obvious traffic driver. own businesses that have a natural traffic drive and it's really hard to get a lot of the things they sell on the internet and they do an enormous internet's nest. -- internet business. gap would be the more traditional. you are 12.9% long financials. where are you short? guest: we think about everything from an idiosyncratic perspective. change takingof place in that industry and there are a number of businesses there that we feel face competitive pressure that may not be fully appreciated. we are long aat,
company like blackrock which would be squarely in the market you want to be in. technology wise, c.k. technology is when you are some -- you are short. be carefulave to when we describe our shorts because our holding time is three to six months. vonnie: is it worth it to get -short fund or is it worth it to get into an etf that tracks them? tost: we would be confident say what we do is impossible to put into an etf. it is hard to put human capital especially on the
short side of the portfolio, it's for the clients to decide. competes withing the more traditional hedge funds and those vehicles typically come with liquidity profile that look much worse than now. comes with carried interest as well, which we don't charge in our mutual fund. tos always up to clients decide and ultimately come it's about investing and securing on both sides of the box and building a long track record. we want to provide appropriate risk reduction returns. vonnie: thank you very much. coming up, square reports earnings after going public. the key question to watch -- asian -- is jack dorsey distracting him and can the
and you can see we are in the up andith the s&p 500 the nasdaq up about four -- about .4%. square is set to report its first earnings as a publicly traded company. cofounder be on the and chief executive officer, jack dorsey. how he juggles square and twitter is a critical question. let's see what the numbers on the square show and the numbers trades not- square far from his post ipo peak of $13. sentiment is negative with a third of its shares sold short. that's because the mobile payments company isn't making money. even on adjusted terms, square trades at 10 times revenue, which is near the valuation of visa and mastercard.
slows toevenue growth almost 60% in the previous quarter. 60% doesn't sound too bad. one reason why the transaction over theate slipped previous three months. as they are trying to lou are trying to her merchants away from bigger card processors. slow-moving volume growth coming from increasing the number of sellers using it service which now stands at more than 2 million. square allows anyone with a cell phone or tablet to accept card payments. as it competes with paypal and others, they need to branch out to grow. one strategy is to use transaction data to conduct marketing software data. square is set to report its results in just a few minutes.
let's dive deeper into square now. the managing director at bt ig joins us now. we were having a look at some of the numbers there and this idea revenue growth is slowing is something we see across all the internet space. we are still talking double digit revenue growth. guest: frankly it is not a case of revenue slowing at a pace more than would be expected. there's an expectation that square will be growing somewhere in the mid 20's percent, so to have a decline at this point is not all that meaningful. what is more meaningful is seeing the extent to which it is able to build up the ancillary services beyond the process offerings. inventory management and all of these other things so that square balls from being a
payment processor to a provider. vonnie: is this space getting commoditized? paypal and facebook messenger. that -- a problem with what are the barriers to entry? is square going into an area competitors don't want to go into? gross payment volumes are less than $125,000 year. everyonet an area wants to go into but it is an area where they focus. they could offer an entire suite of product set gives them an edge. one of the big factors everyone is looking at with regard to square capital is customer acquisition costs. has 2 million plus sellers within its base,
the customer acquisition costs are at zero. but there is the ancillary problem to that -- the vendors square is hoping to sell to can pick up as many of these as they want. starbucks is one example. it cap is becoming almost cluttered with all of these pay systems. problem?oing to be a you go back to what that square going in the first place, that would be simplicity. they came out with an innovative offering with a flat fee across the board. that same sort of simplicity they hope to offer going forward with regard to these other businesses, it's on a question of where you need to have six or seven apps to achieve what you are trying to as a small business, you can have all of your apps with regard to square.
potentially to package all of these benefits together is the real challenge. and diewill square live on its sale team? mark: at this point, word-of-mouth has been driving square. it is important when you look at that 2 million plus sellers, the at 21y has pegged them million small businesses. moreuare continues to add value added products, you will see them go beyond word-of-mouth to other means of distribution. but that's just the united states. square announced they launched in australia. the total addressable market is huge and that is where other firms like paypal are focusing their attention. looking atare
revenue of $1.2 billion -- is that doable? i think it's very doable. as they continue to build out their ancillary product suite which right now doesn't even move the needle with regard to the numbers, right now putting together lending and data, they haven't even broken that out. we believe it is going to be meaningful. we have to talk about jack dorsey and this idea they can't do two jobs. is he the man for the job? mark: there's no question holding two jobs is a distraction. square has a wonderful cfo who knows the business inside out. vonnie: thank you so much for joining us. coming up, the close of trading is just minutes away. energy and tech leading. we have telecom lagging today.
vonnie: this is boom -- this is bloomberg markets. i'm vonnie quinn. wrapping it all up here, we are looking at a 18. for the dow, quite a small one. nasdaq intos&p and need build on earlier gains. in terms of what we have been watching, after this morning's inventory data showed a drop in gasoline inventories, we seen a klein in inventory steadily throughout the day. saw a big rally and a streak
in many of these stocks that undergoing a big drop yesterday. .hevron being up graded chesapeake also rising on a bloomberg news story the company is considering selling some of its oklahoma assets. we have been watching biotech stop after a medicare part b ruling. there still some confusion over what's going to be reimbursed and what is not. higher-priced drugs may be affected by changes in reimbursement. to pull he is one we are watching after the closure of one of its restaurants outside of boston after four of its employees got sick. those shares down 3.7%. -- someoming out
comments that revenue may not be changed from 2020. darden getting a lift after its earnings report. vonnie: just a couple of more trading.eft in let's turn to our gadfly columnist, mike reagan. action even while central banks are thing on the sidelines. mike: last time i checked volume number volume was about 20% below the average, so definitely very quiet ahead of mario draghi tomorrow. people sort of expecting something out of it. not sure exactly what. of plan with mark
halperin talking about the possibility that people are talking about they would take some of those bad loans off the bank balance sheets. people are standing back waiting for that. chevron is the most important corporate news. if you took chevron out of the dow industrial average day, it would be down with chevron propping the average up after yesterday. people neverhing thought we would be talking about but the longer oil stays below -- , your: goldman sachs column today was about investment banking. citigroup confirming what a lot of people knew -- the investment climate hasn't rebounded much this quarter in the volatility has people on the sidelines and deals are not closing.
equity capital issuances slow and that capital issuances slow. to follow on that, the wells fargo analyst came out today with a very big earnings estimate cut for all the universal banks. citigroup, bank of america, an average of about 23% earnings estimate decrease. that's obviously the downside. vonnie: we will be looking forward to that earnings season. mike is a gadfly columnist and you can see them all on the bloomberg. that is it for bloomberg markets. "what'd you miss?" is next. ♪
follow every pitch, every play and every win. change the way you experience tv with x1 from xfinity. hey how's it going, hotcakes? hotcakes. this place has hotcakes. so why aren't they selling like hotcakes? with comcast business internet and wifi pro, they could be. just add a customized message to your wifi pro splash page and you'll reach your customers where their eyes are already - on their devices. order up. it's more than just wifi, it can help grow your business. you don't see that every day. introducing wifi pro, wifi that helps grow your business. comcast business. built for business. scarlet: we are moments away from the closing bell. joe: i'm joe weisenthal. alix: i'm alix steel.
[closing bell ringing] alix: u.s. stocks gaining as oil reaches its highest level since december. joe: the question is "what'd you miss?" to an expertpeak uses the china currency devaluation is misconstrued. joe: -- nd one -- alix: square reports earnings for the first time. and whether they can gain a market share. u.s. talks resuming their advance. they gained as oil prices rose and we are looking at a potential eight year bull market. alix: happy anniversary. scarlet: where were you on march