tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg March 14, 2016 10:00am-11:01am EDT
and this is "bloomberg markets" on bloomberg television. ♪ mark: we are going to take you from london to silicon valley and new york in the next hour. here's what we are watching for you today. we are half an hour into the trading day. u.s. stocks are lower because of dropping commodity shares. a rally continues for european stocks following last week's big stimulus moves. betty: we have more eagerly awaited announcement including the fed and the boj. what that can mean for investors. shares of starwood hotels are searching this morning after the company gets an unsolicited rival bid from a group led by an bang insurance. what will it mean for marriott's plan to buy starwood.
let's go over to the markets desk. julie hyman has the very latest. julie: we are seeing stocks andback after the gain the streak we have seen in u.s. stocks over the past four weeks. we have the fed meeting coming later this week, so there is a lot of talk about what that will bring. the decline today can really do to be tend on what is happening with oil prices. the iran student news agency reporting the iranian oil minister says we will freeze oil production not until we raise it by about a third. iran is not willing to freeze production until its production is more in line of what it was historically. 36.85.down we are seeing the big cap oil
companies take a leg lower today. also not helping oil today is the recovery in the u.s. dollar as we are seeing people reraise their interest rate expectations given the fed meeting. the yen is unchanged versus the dollar but you see the euro and the pound are falling versus the dollar today. betty: it is not just oil today that we are focused on. julie: no, it's not. tech stocks are pulling back and that is a pattern that we have seen a frequently this year. apple now has very little change, but amazon and microsoft under pressure. they're socause heavily weighted in the yesterday 500, but they tend to exert a disproportionate pull. it is not all lower. we have a couple of potential deals to talk about this morning . starwood agreed to be acquired by marriott, but it's getting the competing bid from anbang
that would value starwood at $21 billion. it is pulling some of the other hotel shares as well, even marriott. the fresh market also being bought by apollo for $1.4 billion. apollo has been busy. it's the third acquisition since the start of february for more than $1 billion. the stock price. mark: take a look at what is happening in europe today. the post mario draghi rally is still in place. this is the column you want to be looking at today. the stoxx 600 rising for a second day at the highest level since january 7. we have risen for four weeks. it's the longest winning stretch since march last year. how is the bond market?
here's the spread between the german and the spanish bond market. the mario draghi peripherys drawing bonds. it's up 1.6% from 1.2% today. the yield differential is 1.2%. the euro-dollar -- what a three days it's them. 1.6% and we were down by 1.6%. is ahree-day performance 1% decline -- 1% gain should i say for the euro. mario draghi was not working on the fx channel. he was working on the credit channel. the best performer today in europe is the italian lender c. the newspaper reported that the prime minister is pressing other
lenders to consider a takeover of the countries third-biggest lender. if they gain a today, up by 5%. welcome back. betty: i miss so much. all this stuff happened while i was gone. mark: i cannot believe you missed mario draghi. we're counting down. we will make up for it. betty: let's check in on the bloomberg first word news this morning. courtney donahue has more. it's a dog fight and ohio where polls show governor john kasich going ahead of donald trump a day before the republican presidential primary. donald trump has moved from his scheduled rally, while holes show donald trump has a 20 point lead in florida over marco rubio . mitt romney is hitting the campaign trail for john kasich in ohio. romney is not endorsing a candidate, but he is urging voters to choose john kasich and ohio and marco rubio in florida
to deny donald trump victory in either state. nominate obama could someone to the spring court as early as this week. the republican party is launching an ad and pr campaign to drill anyone obama picks to replace antonin scalia appeared the republic. the republican national committee will also target democrats on the senate committee. investigators on the way to the scene of an amtrak derailment in kansas. 29 passengers were taken to a hospital in dodge city. the train was traveling from los angeles to chicago. in maryland, a police officer was killed in what police officers are calling an ambush. he was killed outside of a police station in suburban washington, d.c. two suspects have been arrested. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i'm courtney donohoe. investors will be keeping
a close eye on the fed this week despite central banks influence over market sentiment so far this year. janet yellen pointed to china and oil as the culprits for market volatility at the last fed meeting. >> those things have been the drivers and have been associated with broader fears that have developed in the market about potential for weakening global growth. think it is mainly our policy. betty: the former director of the office of management and budget joins us now. he thinks all of them should resign. he gives a contrarian view on the economy of politics. david, you have said that before. is the contrarian view on the march meeting? david: the fed is completely lost. betty: completely lost?
david: it is 86 months since they want to zero interest rates. years oft have seven zero cost money without creating huge distortions in the financial market. what they have essentially done is created another huge bubble and they are about ready to be repudiated because the bubble will collapse of the very time we are heading into the next recession. they did not abolish the business cycle. we are along the tooth and seven years in this recovery. the world economy is deflating and shrinking. you saw the expert numbers from all over the world. noy are going to end up with dry powder and a market collapsing and an economy that is sinking into recession. betty: where is it sinking into recession? david: look at all the numbers. business sales are down 5% from there. peak.
inventory is at recession levels. orders are down 10% from a year and a half ago. everywhere you look in the u.s. economy, there are weaknesses except for the phony numbers put out by the beos. believe those numbers, more power to you, but they are not correct. we still have fewer breadwinner jobs. i'm not talking about these part-time bartender and waiter jobs and so forth, but full-time jobs. less today than we had in december 2007. where is the recovery? real household incomes are still lower than they were before the crisis. david, if the fed has got to resign, surely everyone on the ecb, bank of japan, bank of bank, i swiss national mentioned all those because they are meeting this week. they've got to follow the fed officials out the door, right? david: you hit it right on the
head. the world economy is driven by a cabal of central banks that are wrecking the financial system and driving the whole world economy to a huge crisis. look at the market today. it is crazy to be trading where it is given the earnings collapsed that is underway. we just finished with 15 and the earnings on this kind. the ones that you file a do not go to jail for came in at $86.46 a share. that means the market is trading at 22 times current earnings. that is crazy. betty: people buy stock buybacks by the way. that is the drive how to for the market. david: stock buybacks will not help the economy in the long run. there is simply stripmining the balance sheet of corporate america, pushing it back into
the market as dividends and stock buybacks. it is temporally driving up stocks. real investment is actually lower today than it was 10 years ago. betty: i knew you were going to come on and say armageddon is coming could i want to sho. i want to show you a chart of that says that we are actually above the red line fi. financial conditions are improving since the bottom of february this year. it does leave room. if the trend is your friend, it does leave room for the fed to raise rates. david: we have had a dead cat bounce. betty: don't give me the yeah but. david: it means nothing to me because that is very short term. the cat is already buried. the fact that high-yield spreads have come in a little bit is not given what isl
going on in the oil patch. there is still massive default losses going to happen. look at the high-yield market performance and default rates. they are going up. look at subprime auto loans. they are now at a delinquency rate higher than anything that we've seen in the last 10 years. we can go on and on. the markets trade in weeks and days based purely on sentiment and momentum. the little bounce that we have had since february 11 -- at least the fed has not instigated negative interest rates. do you think we are heading in that direction one-day? david: we are out and dry powder if we do not go to negative interest rates. if they even talk about it publicly, they are inviting a political firestorm in the united states. the millions of retirees that
have been savaged by this will take up arms and they have a champion. i would not be surprised to see donald trump take up that issue the minute the fed even begins to other negative interest rates. what are negative interest rates? they are a confiscation of your savings. why would there not be a political reaction to negative interest rates? mark: there's always a big reaction in japan, which we will come to. we will come to donald trump in the big day tomorrow in the united states. stay there, david. menmore on the fed, two wednesday at 1:00 p.m. eastern for the special live coverage of the fed meeting. david is going to stick around and we will continue to focus on politics on "bloomberg markets." that's next. ♪
mark: live from london and new york, i am mark barton with betty liu in new york. it is a typical week for primaries for republicans. donald trump is in north carolina, getting ready for another reality. one place he is not getting support is the fed. donald trump has not collected a single donation from fed employees while ted cruz has received $2000, while democratic front-runner hillary clinton has received over $18,000 this election season. we are back with the former budget and the management, david stockman. is this the week where donald trump sews it up or will john kasich be the fly in the ointment? david: i think it looks pretty
inevitable that i would say that donald trump is a flying wedge of repudiation to the whole phony washington, wall street narrative that everything is fixed and that we are going to go on and live happily ever after. he is right. the great unwashed masses of main street no the only thing that is happening is that we have another huge financial bubble. ew hedge fund managers have made a killing and that households are better off in that anyone else is no better off and worse than they were before the crisis. what he is articulating and i do not agree with half of what he says with his wall on the mexican border and so forth, but --ld you is articulating what he is articulating is the establishment scam is a big lie and we will face a day of reckoning here. betty: do you think he's going
to begin for the economy? david: the economy is going to be bad for all americans because we are going into a recession. people cannot see that, but if you look around the world, it's happening. the stock market is going to crash. it will be at 1300 before it's at 2200. we are going to have trillions more of losses again. betty: are you saying that no matter who takes the oval office that it doesn't matter? the economy is on its own trajectory no matter what? how the fednot see can stop anything. the right thing, it will precipitate the stock crash earlier. if it sits on its hands, we will likely drift into recession. betty: they should raise rates now? david: this should have raised them years ago, but the fiction that you should have zero interest rates is really one of the evils of our time because it has only benefited speculators
on wall street. that is all it has done. it has created massive speculation. it is basically misallocated capital and to all these different bubbles. and now, we're going to pay the piper. the messes coming and it's likely that someone like trump can be elected because the reality that voters will face will be a repudiation of all the nice fairytales they have been told. mark: you probably are aware that elections took place in germany this weekend and the anti-migration party did remarkably well in the three states that were up for grabs. this is quite a big phenomenon. we are seeing the rise of trump and look at what is happening in other countries like greece and portugal and spain and austria. there's all sorts of right-wing parties that are gaining traction in these countries. where is the endgame of this
political movement globally? david: i think it's a mess and i think you're right. ,hat you see here is populism antiestablishment populism. they do not believe and what the what they are trying to impose on the populace. they lost confidence in the eu and the massive raucously trying to run the continent out of brussels. that is what trump is all about. that is what sanders is all about. the core institutions of financial market seems to worship the imf, central banks, government intervention -- i think all that is in danger of great repudiation. that is why we see all these populist parties rising. we need to fix this. we need to get rid of the fiction that we can borrow our way to prosperity by printing money of the central bank. wety: just remember that
have created millions of jobs in the obama administration. david: if we actually look at real jobs, full time jobs, they are no more today than there were in december. secondly, half of the so-called jobs created are born-again jobs. we lost them in the great crisis and now we have them back. we do that every cycle. the fact is for 15 years, we have not been creating real permanent, lasting, full paying jobs. betty: we're going to have to leave it there. david stockman, we are going to be back on "bloomberg markets." ♪
can it ramp up to 4 million a day? >> if you believe the government of iran, perhaps through the end of the year. if you believe most analysts, then it will take several years and foreign investment, which is itself looking less likely or at least a longer-term play rather than anything immediate. i think the core of this is that iran has always said that it will and it has the right to restore its pre-sanctions output . really, it's reaffirming that. mark: is that the reason why oil is down today? is it reaffirming that or is it a mixture of this meeting that should be taking place between saudi and russia? julian: i think it's a number of things. the iranian statement that came out over the weekend has been the trigger for this. we have seen the stronger dollar i as well that has
created headwinds for oil. perhaps it's a realization that the ramp-up in prices that we have seen since late february is perhaps a little bit overdone. mark: we are not going back down though, are we? it to: the iea has said us and a number of analysts have said the same thing. we have certainly seen as switch and focus among traders away from the sort of ever-growing u.s. stockpile that we see every week to more of a focus on declining non-opec output and possible market balance in the second half of the year. that seems to have driven a little bit more optimism. i think that there is the slightly growing sense that maybe this output freeze that everybody has been talking about is not as much as everybody hoped it would be.
there have been suggestions that the meeting that will take place this month will not take place until next month. mark: bloombergs julian lee, thank you. betty: still ahead, the heat is on as hotel search for an antidote to airbnb. starwood finds itself the subject of a bidding war. after the break, we will check in with hotel investor monty bennett. ♪ ♪
bloomberg markets. courtney: in germany, it was a political setback for chancellor angela merkel. the anti-immigration alternative for germany party had its best showing yet in three state elections. support for the christian democratic union fell across the board. inian peace talks resumed geneva, aimed at ending five years of civil war. there has been a partial cease-fire since february and the united nations is hoping the negotiations will lead to agreements within six months, followed by elections a year later. coast,nt of the ivory the national security commission held a meeting. the government says at least 22 people were killed in the first attack by islamic militants in the country, which is almost evenly split between muslims and
christians. in brazil, millions joined in some of the biggest protests in the country, demanding the removal of the president, who has been linked to the corruption investigation into the government. the country has been mired in its worst recession in a century. pilotsuld report when have mental health issues. last year, the copilot of a germanwings plate -- flight last year flew his plane into the french alps. news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists and 150 news bureaus around the world. mark: things are getting complicated for the owner of the hotels.nd sheraton
shares are surging following the news, up nearly 7%. they will have to dig it out with marriott who said last year they would buy star word for $12 billion -- starwood for $12 billion. betty: more on the battle for starwood and what is driving bennett, anonty asset manager focused on the hospitality industry, overseeing more than $4 billion. m&a, the industry, hot chinese coming in, and they going to buy up all of the hotels? monty: it looks like it. the strategicg hotels from blackstone and now this announcement about starwood. they seem to be very aggressive. betty: is that a good thing for the hotel industry? monty: it is always a good thing.
you see these movements from public honors to private owners, and i think we are going to see more of that if the gap on the public markets does not close soon. betty: why now? is in ourt happens space, lodging stocks track closely to what is going on in the high-yield bond market, and about a year ago the market gapped out. there's arbitrage between private market values of hotels and public market values, and there is a wild to traction the bill. we are a large owner of starwood hotels and marriott hotels, and we're looking forward to the merger. we will have to see what this announcement brings to us. mark: you don't think that ending has a chance here? monty: i think they have very much got a chance. we will see what the board of directors and shareholders want
to do. it depends on whether the shareholders want a short-term pop or long-term value creation. mark: is there a sense of dealsy among hotels to do ? some saying the rise of airbnb means that size and scale is a .enefit for the hotel industry is that some of the reason, monty, we are seeing this big jump in m&a in the industry? monty: i think you are seeing it from pressure from airbnb and online travel agents. airbnb is really just a reservation system for illegal, commercial hotels. a study came out from penn state that said 70% of the revenue come from illegal commercial hotels. we're all for the sharing economy, mom and pops renting
out a bedroom or two, but that is not what is going on with airbnb. they are not necessarily safe places to stay, they do not follow the laws. many times they do not share -- pay their share of taxes and that is impacting the industry. betty: they have grown to a company that is over $25 billion in value. if they were majority run by do youllegal operators, think somebody down the road would try to stop them on a grander scale? monty: i think so, and i think that is happening. you are starting to see legislation across the country put a stop to it. we think they should follow the same roles that hotels do. sameshould follow the health and safety standards, and pay taxes. betty: you mentioned you are a star word shareholder.
the fact that they are coming in with a higher price, why wouldn't that be appealing to you? monty: we are a owner of starwood hotels, not a shareholder, so we are looking for a longer-term benefit to our hotels. longer-term, we would prefer having marriott acquire starwood because we think it is better for our hotels in the long-term. ,ark: the fed meets this week we will know more on wednesday. you are an advocate of negative interest rates. why is that? not many supporting this negative interest rate strategy that has been implemented by the likes of the ecb and the bank of japan. to our nextit comes recession, i think the government is going to have to ease in one of three ways, or maybe all. they can run up huge deficits and have the debts monetized, but i do not think that will
happen. the fed could engage in helicopter drops of money, sending money straight to consumers and having them send that money, but there is no legal mechanism to do that. the third way we see to stimulate is to take rates materially into negative territory. i am not advocating that, but i do not see any other course of action where the federal reserve can stimulate, so i think that is ultimately where they will go when we go into recession. mark: we had a guest on already , a is a bit gloom and doom contrarian if there ever was one. are you suggesting we are near a recession in the near term? so.y: no, i do not think we have seen a softening patch recently in the industry but we still see demand continuing to outstrip supply in the hospitality space. while we do not think a
recession is imminent, we are notoriously difficult to predict. i do not see what the choice has other than to take those rates into materially negative territory, and they should have an easing bias as opposed to a tightening bias. i think central banks around the world should have an easing bias. we barely have positive growth in this country and around the world, and i think and easing bias is more appropriate. mark: the ecb and the boj has an easing bias. thank you for joining us today, monty bennett, the chairman and ceo of the ashford group. coming up on bloomberg markets, , does co-founder of nafta the board member of spotify think of the current state of the industry question mark that is next. -- state of the industry? ♪
mark: this is bloomberg markets, i am mark barton in london with betty liu in new york. time for the bloomberg business flash, a look at some of the bigness -- biggest business stories in the news. japaneseith local governments to make hydrogen from wind powered energy. hydrogen combines with oxygen in the air to make water. without a totally clean supply chain, the hydrogen must also be cleanly made. astrazeneca is trying to figure pay to a $45ie billion revenue package.
more than 20% of astra's shareholders may reject it. may not win a quick and to the lawsuit filed by bill gross, claiming pimco owes him millions of dollars. pimco says there was no agreement with gross guaranteeing employment, but a california judge says the case can go ahead. that is your latest business flash, let's check on european stock markets. stocks are rising for a second consecutive day after four consecutive weeks of gains, the longest winning stretch since march last year. the draghi stimulus boost still working its magic on europe's primary equity forces which are at the highest level since january the seventh. betty: it is looking not as
great, a little bit down. abigail doolittle has the latest from the nasdaq. the secondsla is biggest performing at the nasdaq this morning. recent data checks suggest that model x production accelerated faster after a factory visit. he raised his price target to $300. this is in contrast to a bearish call from short seller andrew of citron research who just recently put out bearish comments on tesla, saying the stock is more likely than not to be trading close to $100 by the end of the year. betty: it is going to be interesting. there are others joining the rally. abigail: gw pharma is trading
back above $80 so we are not talking about a biotech and a stock but a truly significant stock, doubled its market cap on the news that a key marijuana drug has met an endpoint in a study, showing it reduces convulsive seizures in children with epilepsy. another biotech company is also pharma is news, gw trading back toward its highs. betty: abigail, thank you so much. sean parker was largely linked to the rise of piracy and the collapse of the music industry. he explains why he thinks the music industry has turned a corner. sean: consumers turn to piracy by and large they cannot get the product through legitimate
channels, so there needed to be a legitimate market offering coming from the record labels, and they could not get their act together for years to put that in the market. it was frustrating to watch this long deleterious collapse of an industry that was producing something that i loved so much. that was never our intention. >> music sales peaked in 1999 and since then, it has been years of decline. you are now on the board of spotify. do you think streaming services can end the years of decline the music industry has been facing? sean: i think we have turned the corner and are getting back into growth based on what i've seen at spotify and apple. it looks like it has bottomed for a wild, of -- spotify could replace cd sales, the decline in cd scales -- sales and downloads but not
both. >> how do you convince people to pay for services when there is so much for free online? sean: the question of free versus paid is a question that has played the music interest-rate all the way back to radio -- industry all the way back to radio. services like spotify that monetize and a really great rate, where we see users coming , we see ate channel least a third of those users over time becoming paid customers. there is obviously added value and that added value is convenience, it is the ability to make a playlist, share a playlist with the outside world, organize your music library. it is all of the things we do to surface music. known as the guy who dropped from facebook. do not talknd i
nearly as much as we used to. there was a time continued to consult every day, but generally speaking, it is a good relationship. >> there is a scene in the social network where you and mark zuckerberg meet for the first time, and after that i believe you go hang out with travis clinic, the ceo of uber. is that true? sean: i actually did. actually, mark went out to a club. travis has not really changed at all. ways thet of in some perfect ceo of this company , he feeds offoys of the conflict and the controversy. he is very good at dealing with
complex situations where he is being attacked from all sides. as ank he would thrive wartime leader. lanick.ral ka i think there's a lot of companies that would've been way too boring for travis. betty: that was an exclusive interview with sean parker on bloomberg's studio 1.0. the forbidden fruit of restaurants, we are talking about dessert. eat dessert first. usomberg's chief cook shows some of london's most luxurious putting ♪.
mark: we just getting started on bloomberg markets. it is a monday, do not miss the big interviews tomorrow. interview jcpenney chief executive. tony james of blackstone will be joining us as well. we will's pursuits, talk about the forbidden fruits of restaurants, desserts. criticrg's chief food had to fall off the healthy eating wagon to try out some of london's finest pudding. did you eat all of them? and iasted all of them have not eaten a desert sense. mark: what did it involve? was it all in a week? was it all in a day?
day.rd: five and a it was a bit tough by the end of each day. is there a good time where you are less likely to be chucked out the door? richard: they like people coming in late at night. think time is at lunchtime, they would not like you too much. mark: some of these are english classics. richard: bread and butter pudding, i had at school. it is filled with currants and raisins. mark: that is the real deal. richard: with cheshire cheese.
mark: are these london specific desserts? are they global desserts? are they unique to london? richard: these are mostly global. i guess i cannot say -- mark: it is not cheap. are you paying for the privilege of where you are sitting when you eat it? richard: the ritz is not quite as expensive as you would think. just assembling it is about 20 minutes, and they make it to order. slow gin isis a generally. jen g --in fizz jelly. richard: at wimbledon we have
sham they -- champagne and strawberries. mark: i like the sound of that. when i particularly like about that is there is a choice of five kinds of roma. -- rom r --um. pistachio souffle. in the: when i was a kid south of france, i used to love pistachios and the color. when he decided to do a menu for his restaurant in london, he decided to put that on. mark: is that the most revered desert? richard: i would say that an tipsy cake. mark: when i read your piece, which is wonderful, you said was one of your favorites.
why? richard: it comes with fruit, which feels healthy. is very buttery, quite sinful. betty: i would still put in new york slice of cheesecake next to any of those fancy desserts and i would still choose the cheesecake. richard: betty, you have to come over here and try them. i did not put cheesecake in the story because i thought people from new york might object. mark: top three. richard: the packers cake with cheese, possession of souffle, and tipsy cake. sticky toffee pudding on friday. richard: they sell hundreds a week, it is filled with sugar and salt. it is something that no one should eat really. mark: but it is great.
if you could have any pudding in the world what would it be? richard: i am happy with a simple sorbet. mark: sorbet, which flavor? richard: lemon. mark: betty, what is your one? betty: i love the sticky toffee pudding. mark: too much salt, do not go there. betty: i cannot help it. richard: the chef told me he does not eat it. to see you, richard, as ever. sorbet. stay with us. ♪
markets. mark: we are going to take you from london to new york to brazil in the next hour. here is what we are watching today following last week's stimulus, theost fed and bank of japan have major announcements this week. what it could mean for the global economy. matt: what the fed could do to improve its accountability as it precious -- faces pressure for more oversight. mark: thousands take to the street in brazil, calling for the impeachment of the president. what it could mean for brazil's economy. are 90 minutes into the trading day in the united states, let's get over to the markets desk.