tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg March 17, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT
betty: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good afternoon. i am betty liu. here's what we are watching. markets are kicking off with gains in industrials and materials. commodities are searching. the dow finally erasing its loss on the year, and the s&p briefly turning positive. apple shares are up 8% in the last month, but is there trouble looming ahead? recent supply chain checks show softness possible in the iphone. nba superstar kevin durant, in an exclusive interview from the nike innovation summit. the oklahoma city forward fills us in on everything from his new speakers -- sneakers to be latest in sports tech. we are one hour away from the close, and stocks are rallying big-time. ramy inocencio has the latest. we have seenw,
this rally ever since the start of the day. we started in negative territory, but with green on the board you can see we are now at session highs, just coming off session highs right now. the s&p 500 up 0.75%. the dow pushing 1%. the nasdaq up a little more than 0.1%. this is all happening off of what happened, or really didn't happen, with the fed yesterday holding rates steady. positive economic data, jobs numbers coming out today also helping. let's look at what is happening at the dow year to date. have a positive push by 0.4% year-to-date here. a similar story, we also saw for the s&p. however, i think we were just coming off of those gains into positive territory. you can see we are down by just under 0.1% here. back-and-forth, but generally
speaking a positive overall today. betty: positive. ramy, the weaker dollar created a positive move in commodities. ramy: let's take a look at what the weaker dollar is doing right here. it is down 1%. betty, with a weaker dollar, for improves the prospects commodities, namely copper and zinc, which are traded in dollars. down 1% here. this is the second day of false after the fed keeping interest rates unchanged. we are seeing the biggest two-day decline since 2009. it is that an eight-month low. let's talk about another commodity, oil. crude is at session highs, up 4.5% here. pulling up the market. we did break the $40 a barrel mark. $40.20 right now. u.s. production fell to its lowest since november 2014, and
supplies rose by the smallest jump in five weeks. let's look at the safe haven of gold. ok, hold off on gold. we will go on to specific stocks. take a look over at, ok, maybe we will go to gold -- or maybe we won't go to gold. we will go with whatever is on the screen. amazon down newly 3%. it may be looking at office depot's corporate business unit to jumpstart its office supply business. betty: thank you. ramy inocencio at the markets desk. let's get a check of headlines. mark crumpton has more. mark. : south carolina senator lindsey graham is endorsing texas senator said crews for the republican presidential nomination. back in february, senator graham had this to say about his colleague. senator lindsey graham: if you
kill ted cruz on the floor of the senate, and the trial was in the senate, nobody would convict you. [laughter] mark: senator graham says he will help the cruz campaign "in every way i can." president obama is comparing for an unprecedented role in the 2016 campaign. the president and his aides have been trying to determine how they can replicate the success of his campaigns. mr. obama is likely to be the most active sitting president on the campaign trail in decades. russian president vladimir putin has a warning for extremist groups in syria. he has withdrawn the bulk of russian warplanes there, but says he can build up his forces again in a few hours if necessary. russia plans to continue bombing islamic state and other militant groups. former fee for president -- fifa president sepp blatter has filed
an appeal of his success in your band from soccer. he was banned after being found guilty of an ethical conduct. fifa has revealed his salary for the first time. he was paid $3.8 million in 2015. a loss of $122 million. day,l news 24 hours a powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i am mark crumpton. betty? betty: thank you. shares of apple have rally from their low at the start of the year. the stock is up about 8% since mid-february. the company is expected to unveil a smaller and cheaper iphone. analysts say it may not be enough to stop sales from slowing down. joining us now from portland -- andy, what did you think of these earnings coming out? whether there is some iphone demand slowdown, and how big of an effect it could have on apple?
andy: well, i think it reflects what we have seen for the last few months, really, that demand is not particularly strong. not as strong as what we saw the last iphone cycle. i don't know if this is any new addsmation, per se, but it to the stack of information that suggests demand is soft. betty: is the information a leading indicator, by any means, or is it a lagging indicator? andy: i think it is a bit of a lagging indicator. betty: ok. supports the view that sales are not improving. betty: andy, what exactly is going on with iphones? what exactly is, in your belief, going on here? andy: it depends on your perspective. [laughter] my belief is that it is a saturated market, in the developed world especially, and the iphone 6 was incredibly strong. so it created a difficult comp. betty: is it just cyclical?
andy: it is cyclical in the sense that, yeah, iphone owners will stay iphone owners, so when start wearing out, sometime in the next 12 months, volume will come back. that's part of the reason we still love the stock. there is when a growth, beginning in the next cycle. betty: is a justification for the rally we have seen in apple shares? --en that the fundamentals given the fundamental's we are seeing? stickiness ofe the customer base, the stock was too cheap. the rally reflects anticipation for the coming iphone cycle, as we get closer and closer. we expect shares to do reasonably well. betty: what about the extent to which apple will unveil the iphone --ower-and lower-end iphone?
what you expecting? andy: not a lot. the iphone s.e., as most people expect it to be called, is a trade-in for the iphone 5s. and allows them, when they launch the next iphone 7, allows more differentiation between products so you don't risk trade-down activity, helping to protect gross margins. outside of confirmation we will not have a massive gross margin risk, i don't expect it to be super meaningful. betty: i know you have an overweight rating on apple, so tell me what makes it, given the scenario in the next 12 months, is there anything that could derail the overweight rating? what would you watch out for? andy: the biggest risk, when i think about it, is the replacement cycles extending. in other words, people who bought iphone 6's, and it takes in three or four years to replace their phones, rather
than two years. that would drive decline in unit volume, or at least more stagnant unit volume than what we are expecting. betty: andy, thank you so much. andy hargreaves on apple shares, which have been powering ahead. still ahead, we head to nike's innovation event in new york city. our guest is kevin durant. nike has just unveiled the latest kevin durant shoe. >> the important part is to connect, to give them something they need and want. it could be something from a performance standpoint that is critical for them to perform at the highest level, but also something that aesthetically puts them in the right from of mind, that they feel good about, that is empowering. ♪
betty: you are watching "bloomberg markets." from the track to the runway, nike is making big reveals today at an athlete-studded event in new york city. among the products, self lacing shoes and uniforms. and the new sneaker from kevin durant's line. stephanie ruhle is on-site to tell us all about this in a new and exclusive interview. stephanie: here we are, unveiling the new shoe, the kd9. why are they so special? some athletes like charles barkley say it is not the shoes, but the man. kevin: it goes hand in hand. you need a great shoe that confidence your style of play -- complements your style of play. this shoe does a good job, being
flexible and versatile. from being a point guard to being in the post, i try to played in parts of the floor and need to shoot with confidence. stephanie: why nike? you signed a massive shoe deal. was it about the technology? kevin: it is a family i have been with since i was 15 years old. that played a factor. and the technology as well was definitely a factor. feelhaving a comfortable with everyone in the company. it was a great bond. i don't want to break that. stephanie: do you feel pressured to perform for them? kevin: i just go out there and have fun. that's what it's all about. i went out there and played the game with a lot of joy and peace. stephanie: in terms of your marketability, you will be a free agency and. if you are not playing for oklahoma -- celtics fans were begging you to join their team. there is talk about the wizards. why not move to a city where there is a bigger fan base,
where they could sell a lot more? kevin: because i played basketball. that's all i want to do, just enjoy it. as a kid, i did not think about market,ability, how many shoes i could sell. it is about playing the game for the pure fun and joy. that's what i want to continue to do. it is all about basketball. all the stuff that comes with it is cool, don't get me wrong, but it all comes back to playing the game. i want to continue to play with that pure joy. stephanie: oklahoma does that for you? kevin: it has been great so far. i love the city. being marketable, with social media and things you can be marketable anywhere. i have everything i want that obama city. that's not the problem. i enjoy playing the game of basketball. stephanie: some avenues say it is not just about the game. carmelo anthony is a big investor. we saw lebron james partner with a hedge fund investor. what do you care about off the
court? kevin: it is basketball for me. i definitely want to take care of my family. but it is about having fun playing the game. all that stuff comes with it, but that is not my concern right now. maybe when i'm older, who knows. right now, i just enjoy it. stephanie: a lot of superstars did not go with nike. your home state has under armour. steph curry signed there. what in their shoes makes that boy hit all those baskets? kevin: i will go with charles barkley. just the skill that he has. he has taken our league to new heights. it has been fun as a fan, watching him, playing against him. stephanie: are the warriors the best team ever? kevin: i would not go that far. i like where we are as a team. that's all i can focus on, but
they are playing great. stephanie: when you think about how long you see yourself playing -- you are still a young guy. it is a business. when you play for a team that has a bigger tv deal, we saw how much steve ballmer paid for his team. you started thing, l.a., new york -- kevin: it is easy to think about that, but it comes back to loving the game for where i started, as a kid, just to have fun. i was blessed enough. if i work hard enough, i can make the money i want to make. i have made so much in my career already, i can take care of my family. it is about being around great people, every single day. stephanie: in terms of making a lot of money, ivory mcclendon had a major stake in the team -- aubrey mcclendon had a major
stake in the team. he recently died. has that had an impact? kevin: he made such an impact in our community. he helped bring the thunder. he made so many jobs for people. he was a great man, and we definitely miss him and appreciate everything he has done for our community. our team wants to support his family and all his friends, and go out there and play for him, play as hard as we can for him. he meant a lot to us. . stephanie: you mentioned social media. you have said you don't really like talking to the press. why is that? there are opportunities to monetize, if you look at what derek jeter has done. kevin: i like talking to the media. i like when we have a real conversation. nothing against the media. i like trying to teach people about the game. when other stuff gets into it, that's when i get upset. i tried to kind of, you know, be real with myself, show them what i think as a basketball player. have a conversation. giving me thee's
opportunity to be part of a platform that allows players to have control over what goes out. it has been amazing so far. stephanie: derek jeter, charles barkley, steph curry -- one more name. jay-z. you're a signed athlete with roc nation. why is he the right partner? kevin: he is a businessman. he definitely built his own brand from the ground up. someone who relates to me, who i can talk and have a relationship with. it has been amazing so far. everybody that works with him, my agents, they do such a great job. it has been like a family so far. i'm excited. stephanie: does that mean you have a future in hip-hop? kevin: i doubt that. i am a big hip-hop fan, but i doubt i have a future. stephanie: thanks so much. kd9, getting amped up for the olympics. betty: all right. stephanie ruhle and kevin durant, part of the oklahoma city thunder.
in keeping with basketball,, march madness is officially underway. so far no major upsets. we are taking bracketology to the next level, bringing together titans from business and finance to take their best shot. the favored team to win it all? the one obama picked as well, kansas, with 14 people producing the jayhawks will win, including me. follow at bloomberg.com/charitybracket. still ahead, today's options insight. a check on sectors today, including industrials, materials, energy, leading the rally. ♪ ♪
markets." stocks are rallying today, sending the dow into positive territory. on the year, the dow was down 10% at its low in february. ramy inocencio? ramy: joining me for options insight is tim, lead options analyst. happy st. patrick's day. great greenery you are wearing over there. tim: the market's in the green. ramy: the s&p and the dow are both positive, or at least hitting positive notes. how off -- long can we see this positivity last? tim: very interesting to see. the level of complacency we are seeing, given the magnitude of the rally. we are at a big inflection point, the 2040 level on the s&p.
so i am looking for a pullback. it has gotten up to far, too fast -- too far, too fast. ramy: interesting. look at sectors that could push ahead or pullback. what do you think is going to happen? tim: it is all about oil. we saw oil break through the $38 resistance level yesterday. that led the charts today. the big nasdaq names have been struggling. remember -- economic growth is slowing. that's why the fed is sitting on its hands. fundamentally that is bad for oil, but we are seeing a lot of short covering. once that gives way, that will bring the market back below that wristers level -- resistance level. ramy: i have to talk about the vix. 13.8, theest point, lowest since november. will that last?
is this new normal, or a little blip we are seeing? tim: when we see this rally, theously the magnitude of move -- we have seen the market rally. we have seen the biggest five-week drop in the vix in history, down almost 50%. options are getting cheap here, and i like putting in some protection in a portfolio, given the fact markets have the highest price to sales since 2000, at 1.8. stocks at an all-time high recently, and insurance at an all-time low. from an insurance perspective, i like doing that, and also from a trait perspective. ramy: now, you are looking at spy, the etf that tracks the s&p 500's performance. what is so attractive to you? the price to sales ratio -- talk about that? tim: absolutely. , oning back by many metrics
price to sales were you cannot manufacture earnings, we are at levels we have not seen since 2000. we know how that party ended. with the vix at such low levels, i like the probabilistic trade given that we have had that 12% to 13% rally straight up from here. i am looking from -- for a pullback, going back to april. you only need about a 1.75% pullback intrinsically to break even on this trade. that is a really cheap option. ramy: so you already got to your trade. i want to ask you about what might be in store for us in the future. hikesd, not four rate anymore, but two. how might that affect what you are doing? tim: certainly the rally we saw yesterday is based on that. in my opinion, until the fed actually raises again we will not get a raise. it might be job owning with --
jawboning with two rate hikes. gold and oil acting like there is not much more to come. its with the fed sitting on hands, at a minimum sideways action might be warranted going forward. ramy: looking at the bloomberg terminal wirp function, pricing in a 50% rate hike chance in september. timbiggam, thank you very -- tim biggam, thank you very much. betty: still ahead, they will be plenty of guinness flowing on saint patty's day. thatll talk to the head of brand in a moment. ♪
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bloomberg markets. let's check the headlines with mark crumpton at our news desk. marcoflorida senator rubio says ted cruz is the only true conservative left in the race for the white house. rubio made the comments to minnesota supporters during a conference call. rubio did not and jordan -- did not endorse ted cruz or john kasich, but he says he hopes one of them starts -- stops donald trump from winning the nomination. five deputies have been put on probation for their actions at a campaign rally for donald trump. the osha is a man being struck in the face by a white man and the deputies had their eyes on the stairs when the man was struck. the suspect has been charged with assault and disorderly conduct. securerequest to issue a smartphone to then secretary of state hillary clinton was denied by the national security agency according to newly released e-mails. one month later, since clinton
began using private e-mail account access through her blackberry to exchange messages with her top aides. french lawmakers say they want to better understand how the november attacks in paris unfolded. they and first responders reenacted the attack at the concert hall and the suicide bombing at the french nationals baiting them -- french national stadium outside of paris. 130 people were killed in the attacks. dayal news 24 hours a powered by or 2400 journalists and more than 150 news bureaus around the world. markets are closing in 30 minutes. stocks are higher, including the nasdaq. abigail doolittle has more from the nasdaq. abigail: we do have the nasdaq higher on the day but it's still down on the year i more than 4.5%, dragging on the index this
year, bio stocks and amazon. amazon is the against drag on the index. 90% of street analysts out there are saying to buy the stock. i wanted to dig in on this, so i spoke to an analyst who downgraded amazon to a neutral the peak.ight near he said it is a case of expectations versus performance and that the company has been able to really beat investor expectations. he's not sure that's going to happen is the company continues to invest. the stock is at a very high valuation. there are concerns around google entering the cloud market and that perhaps this will pressure amazon's clout unit. google will be hosting a cloud rightrm day next year -- now, it is unlikely google will
pressure amazon's numbers too much, but there could be a lot of headline risk that could cause the stock to go on a bumpy ride. what are other analysts saying about amazon? abigail: it's such a discrepancy, so i spoke to another analyst who has a hold rating on the stock. he did not talk about valuation but the stock is trading at a huge te relative to the comps. but guidance looks a little light for this year. plus the idea that google could be pressuring amazon around cloud services -- there was talk today that apple is going to be using google for some of its cloud business, so investors are concerned about this. it will be interesting to see how all of this plays out. betty: let's have a little fun here -- the world's largest
distillery and owner of the guinness beer brand, the british moree irish, drink guinness than americans that nigeria also consumes more guinness than the u.s. it has gone global. g.i. joe joinsf us, you must be a popular guy down there. guest: thank you so much for having us on and thank you for having us on -- and happy st. patrick's day. much: there has been so consolidation with ab inbev of is theun intended, where opportunity for guinness, particularly when it comes to craft beer makers? there is a lot of
excitement and the craft beer business is very bright -- is very vibrant. it has bought -- has brought a lot of consumers to beer, especially better beer. when i think about guinness and where we are positioned, people are looking for more flavorful and distinctive beers. guinness offers a great beer and we've been able to come out with several different offerings. americans love their loggers and we rolled out a guinness line of loggers and america loves their ipas and we just rolled out a european ip a that is smooth, balanced and very drinkable. about takingd guinness from an american standpoint and offering something that they will enjoy. betty: is it just about offering different varieties or is there something else to grab this consumer? the craft beer consumers, a lot of them are millennials.
what they're looking for is authenticity, transparency and heritage. and there's no better beer than guinness with over 257 years of experience that arthur guinness started. they are looking for choice and variety that they are looking for the true story and real history and authenticity. that is what i think the american craft your movement is about. people want to understand what they are drinking and have pride in doing so. betty: is it more than telling a story? how do you market to them in a different way you have in the past? guest: it is certainly changing in the world of digital and social. it has allowed us to open different opportunities. becoming much more local, so how we engage on a local level is something that i've or 10 years ago was mass media advertising. we have shifted our marketing
and strategy to focus on local and go after opportunities that exist as well as different types of environments. last night, for example, i was at a craft beer festival. three or four years ago, guinness would have never shown up at a craft your festival, but we were honored to be there demonstrating our brands. are there some: craft beers you are interested in buying? guest: right now, we are delighted with the portfolio that we have. we certainly look at everything. betty: there are a lot of deals happening. anheuser-busch -- tell me how that changes the game for you distribution wise? guest: if you look at the u.s., we are competing against a be, so i don't see it as a major
deterrent here in the states. i look at it as competing against both organizations. they have great people working with them and from our standpoint, i look at our portfolio and it's very nice in terms of where the american beer movement is going. this is not your area of coverage but on the spirit side, vodka to my scotch whiskey, that side of the portfolio needs a little revising. any peak into those plans? guest: when you look at our portfolio in spirits, we have a world-class portfolio and we have an offering in every category for we have a havendous portfolio and we the right strategies in place that will set us up for success in the long term. we are very confident in the direction we are heading. betty: thank you very much. guinness usa --
we asked whether today's report matters after the fed statement. we had a good month in january and not a very good month in february, but all told, until they go up, our view is the fed should be restrained and i think that's what they said yesterday. the jobs that because number gives us a distorted ensure of jobs -- semi jobs are low-wage jobs not in that mid manufacturing sector. manufacturing has had the lowest in terms of job increases. manufacturing has also had the worst performance in terms of real wages. if you look at them, they are down over the last six years. andervices and finance health care and education, these professions are up over the last six years. to whole point is we've got
get wages up. that's at the crux of our economic situation and our political situation. the fed should lower wages to go up before they start tightening again. >> the federal reserve chair we heard from yesterday did not seem to emphasize domestic data very much. it was global, global, global. datau look at the global versus the domestic data, has the importance diminished to some extent given the federal reserve has looked at the economy and said yes, ok, but i'm worried about what's happening elsewhere. steve: i think the importance of the international sector has taken on a greater importance in the fed's mind. collapses,d economy we will collapse with it to some degree. i would argue their primary focus is the u.s.
it all the international, whether emerging markets, europe or whatever has to be a piece of what they think about as they formulate monetary policy. betty: that was steve ratner earlier on bloomberg . the one stock that has been hammered recently is valeant. they thought they had a blockbuster drug when they thought they had the female viagra. the problem offers a window into the drugmaker. bloomberg is our reporter, cynthia king. -- cynthia kunz. bill ackman coming out today saying that he has a handle on the situation, but one thing that is not doing well is this drug that they paid a billion dollars for. cynthia: this drug has started -- has struggled from the launch. there has to be a lot of physicians, payers,
people in the system who will help to reimburse the drug. seem to bet happening quickly because insurers are pushing back on the struggle. and theyed to insurers are getting letters say this has to be prescribed by a psychiatrist, but this is not the women with this problem would typically go to. it seems like valeant has a long road ahead to convince insurers they should pay for this drug, which is also around $800 a month, so it is not cheap. women on it have to take it every day and it's not clear if they come off of it. valeant is fighting and appear -- an uphill battle. the ones prescribing the drug are finding it hard to get the drug covered. betty: how committed is valeant to this drug? talked about they the smaller units underperforming, this is one of them. saide call, mike pearson
we are working on it, but it has a lot of work to do. that's going to involve a lot of work working with the companies who pay for the drugs. this is part of the problem had a lotd --valeant of areas. they had to convince insurers to cover the drugs and because of some of the reputation issues they have been dealing with an issues with pushing the price of drugs, there has been some pushback. we don't quite know exactly what played into the significantly downgraded forecast but part of the thinking is they are getting pushed back from the payer community. if that is what is happening, that's a problem they have to deal with. is either commit more to it and double down or is there a possibility they could sell the drug out into the market?
cynthia: i doubt they would do that so quickly, but they could. i talked to a lot of people who really believe in the drug and say it really work for me. it does seem like there's a market therefore, it just needs to be run through a traditional channel and needs to be done right. a lot of research has to be dedicated to it. will behas said they cutting costs, which is hard to believe because they have always been known as a very lean pharmaceutical company and they talk about investing in communication and government relations and things that will help with some of their reputational issues. probably need to invest more in sales force and research and development. only approved for women before menopause but there's a big market of women who are opposed to pause and giving that approval will be keen to helping grow sales. they will need to put money behind it to really make it
work. betty: their separate news on bill ackman where pershing square is being cut to junk. and that's a stop on his valeant holdings. cynthia: he's lost a lot of money on this. i suppose it is the best thing he can do at this point. they've got to stay on the board, so they have a lot more say than they would have had a couple of weeks ago and i think that will be meaningful at least being able to tell their investors they are handling it here for but things like dealing with managed care takes the experience and they need to bring in the right people to get that done and process what they are going to work on. they will have to take a bigger role to explain to investors. betty: i also want to emphasize may be cut by s&p to junk.
betty: this is bloomberg markets. markets are closing in a little under 10 minutes time and we are sharply higher. the dow has finally erased it lost for the entire year. ramy inocencio has your markets check. ramy: it has been a really positive day. maybe a little luck of the irish. we are at highs of the session right now with the 500 up .8% in the now pushing past the 1% mark. by .4% in the fed
holding rate steady. that has had a big ripple effect looking at the markets and fewer filing for unemployment benefits having a lift for the markets. let's look at what is happening year to date. we've seen the s&p and dow slip and positive territory. we did see a pullback and we see it again right now with the s&p 500 marginally down. hop into my bloomberg and let the what is happening with the sect or's on the s&p. the 10 s&p sectors are in the green but as has been the case all day, materials, energy and industrials have been the biggest leaders for most of the day. health care has been the one standout, down by 1% there. let's look at what is happening with the bloomberg dollar index. following what is happening with
the fed, the bloomberg dollar , down by nearn session lows against 16 of its major peers. biggest two-day decline since 2009. let's take a look at oil and gold. 4.5%, pulling past the $40 mark and gold futures are up by 2.2%. basically a positive day. betty: thank you very much. for more on this big day, let's ring in our bloomberg gadfly columnist, mike reagan. easy story a pretty to tell. the fed comes out much more dovish than people expect it and we have a super week dollar and the bloomberg dollar index down to the lowest since october.
that is helping prop oil up as well as signs u.s. production is slowing because of the depressed prices. energy shares doing well. industrial shares doing well. fedex killing it today, up 10%. that really speaks to the underlying elephant in the room, which is the earnings scenario in the u.s.. probably looking at a 9% drop in earnings if you believe analyst estimates. excluding energy, about a 5% drop. , blowing outaying analysts expectations for the year. i think it lets people exhale a little bit on the earnings situation and say analysts that
little too pessimistic. strong as it as has been, the earnings outlook is not as dire as it was. don't forget the ecb being very supportive at their last meeting. have the elephant in the room of earnings growth not looking stellar. nott forget fedex today easing those concerns. what about earnings dropping 30% since its peak? mike: the flipside side of this coin we are seeing, the first couple of months of the year just caught a lot of people by how sudden and sharp the drop in stocks were. a lot of people believe this is it. we've had seven years of a market and its just dying of old age. and people are
paying protection and now the risk on sentiment is back in full force. who knows how long it will last angles, the technical it is interesting a lot of the things where you think the rally might stall have fallen by the wayside. well above the 200 day moving average and now we will see if the s&p closes higher for the year which will be the last technical thing people are worried about. betty: mike reagan, our bloomberg gadfly columnist. that will do it for bloomberg markets. up next is "what'd you miss?" less than four minutes way until the closing bell. ♪
u.s. stocks closing higher and the dow racing declines for the year. the dow falling the most in seven years and loyal topping $40 a barrel for the first -- oil topping $40 a barrel for the first time in months. we will get a take on the fed dovish moves, negative rates and the real reason to worry about china. scarlet: fed dovish this may increase volatility. tracy: and it's not your typical credit cycle. we speak to one professional who says they are in a bubble for corporate bonds and a crisis could be on the way. scarlet: we begin with our market minute -- the dow gaining more than 150 and turning positive for the year.