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tv   Trending Business  Bloomberg  March 20, 2016 9:00pm-11:01pm EDT

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♪ rishaad: it is monday, the 21st of march. this is "trending business". i am rishaad salamat. ♪ rishaad: heading to sydney and singapore, a look at what were watching. china's political leaders make growth their top priority. the central bank chief says that levels are too high, corporate debt 160% of gdp. barack obama becomes the first u.s. president to visit a vana
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and 88 years. starwood hotels snaps of three properties there. shouldd says marriott improve its takeover bid. austria's prime minister clearing the way for an early election, warning the upper tradeof cracking down on unions, what he calls a handbrake on growth. do let us know what you think of our top stories. follow us @rishaadtv, include #trendingbusiness. china-hong kong markets underway in 30 minutes. singapore, taiwan, and malaysia started. here is david. david: some weakness coming through in the last 30 minutes or so. markets in the philippines and hong kong open up. seatght see more weakness in because a lot of these markets have enjoyed quite a run up into friday. the fifth week of gains,
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philippines entering bull market. taiwan and jakarta might follow suit. we've also gotten to a point where some of these markets, a fairly big portion have entered overbought terrain. of thelking 20% philippine composite, 20% of the straight times index, hong kong also 20%, technically overbought. ,hat said, a few other things taiwan export orders coming out as well as hong kong inflation. apart from that, nothing much to trade on. we're looking at technical indicators. just something that's happened over the last five or 10 minutes or so, australia, the oil prices ,ome down, $39 for crude
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dragging a lot of the energy names lower in australia. that's it so far. we will see what happens when hong kong and china open up. rishaad: chinese policymakers warning of risky levels of debt after the national people's congress targeted 6.5% growth. those comments came from the pboc governor. it will be a difficult balancing act for beijing. we have a look at the challenges ahead. do not envy the challenges ahead for chinese policymakers as they try to transition the economy towards a deleveraging and the supply-side reforms, all tied up as the economy continues to slow. chinese policymakers have at
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least addressed the elephant in the room, the credit elephant in the room. many analysts warning that , againstebt overhang the background of the slowdown in growth, does pose the biggest systemic risks to the economy. moody's essentially cutting their outlook for china and threatening a downgrade on the back of this ramp up in credit and these leveraged risks. the pboc governor said china's gdp is 250%, and the situation probe roses macro risks. risks -- macroco risks. this is growing at a time when leveraged companies are going on overseas spending binges. identifying the problem is one, fixing it is another, especially that 6.5% has set
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growth target for 2016 onwards. that suggests that the policy priority is still growth over reform over deleveraging. we also heard from the vice .remier, who suggested a plan there is all so this debt to equity program being studied by the bank regulators. that would allow banks to swap out that in return for equity debt in the same companies. they are trying to deal with this pile of bad loans on the balance sheets. in theory, that frees up more capital for more lending, something of a strange cycle given the point is to deleverage in the first place. what will really help the situation is more robust, more developed, capital markets. financial institutions and china are still underdeveloped. companies can increasingly rely more on equity financing and be
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less reliant on debt. rishaad: we have this tantalizing $13 billion offer dangling in front of it. accept theys it will takeover bid from anbang, ditching a previous takeover bid from marriott international. >> anbang have increased their offer to $78 a share, two dollars more than their initial bid, and in cash, $13.2 billion takeover deal. anbang tying up with a private equity firm and chinese investment firm on this bid. groups fully financed officer -- officer is superior to marriott's. marriott has until march 8 to come up with a counter offer. it is carefully considering its alternatives. back in november, if you
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remember, starwood had agreed to an offer from marriott that would have created the largest hotel company in the world, but if the new deal goes ahead, starwood's will have to pay marriott a $400 million breakup fee. anbang is making a big push into the u.s. hotel business, paying nearly $2 billion for the waldorf-astoria come and agreed to pay 6.5 billion dollars for strategic hotels and resorts, 16 properties across the u.s.. to getd would need approved by regulators and shareholders, and if the deal goes ahead with anbang, the biggest takeover of a u.s. company by a chinese buyer, and that outpaces the nearly $7 2013,n purchase back in but might also get flagged by the committee on foreign investment in the u.s., a government panel that looks at acquisitions of u.s. businesses by foreign buyers. have a morewill
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detailed look later in the show. we want your opinion. tweet us your @rishaadtv opinion @rishaadtv tweet us your opinion @rishaadtv, and include #trendingbusiness. the imf warning vietnam's economy could be at risk. >> christine lagarde has warned vietnam is honorable to external shock waves if it does not push the reforms strengthening its banking system. toldtine lagarde has bloomberg television that the southeast asian is not strong enough to withstand weaker commodity prices and tightening monetary policies elsewhere without these reforms. the head of the imf was in vietnam to meet with country leaders, saying it has one of the worlds most open economies. a strong have transition of the chinese growth model, if you have commodity prices that will fall lower and for longer, then it would expose
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the vietnamese economy, and that would not be good for the vietnamese population. >> the long-running saga of the sharp bailout by foxconn remains delayed. beare hearing a deal may not signed this month. it has been 25 days since our board voted in favor of the bailout proposal, choosing the offer over another bid. since then, foxconn chairman has held off signing the agreement was sharp as advisors look at sharks books. foxconn has sought to reduce the amount and wants more clarity on sharp's performance. the taiwanese company also seeking to reduce payments for new shares by 10% to 20%. foxconn and sharp says they are working towards a final agreement, but neither company has set a signing date. china's richest man is coming to .he rescue of fifa
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group has become the first major sponsor of fifa since the scandal ousted sepp blatter. like other wealthy chinese, aggressively investing in soccer since the president made the sport a national priority. this is run by sepp blatter's nephew,. the deal will run through 2030. a much needed injection for fifa , 100 $22 million loss for 2016, the first time in the red since 2002. rishaad: on her website, china's consumers and how ignoring the bears, buying up big on spot is,
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travel, entertainment. that is on bloomberg.com/asia. coming up, happy birthday twitter. the social networking site turning 10. some saying it is already over the hill. the oil plunge, our next guest says the worst could be over. that and more on "trending business". ♪
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checking what is going on mark and wise. -- market wise. us?he worst behind are we going back there? >> hopefully not. the reality is people expected calm after the end of last year, and that's not how the year started.
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if we think about that big impact we are having, a lot of , thatum around etf's momentum is continuing to extreme levels. rishaad: we've had quite a run-up, but then you have to say do we have another move down or consolidate at these levels. >> mostly consolidate around these levels. we have seen the change in commodities and risk assets leading things down now stabilize. thats giving an indication cheap violations, particularly in emerging markets, that we do need to consolidate these gains. rishaad: you have u.s. and non-us, can you divide the world like that. and china of course. questioning what is happening in places like japan and europe with monetary policy. rishaad: we have two different
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ways of looking at the world, haven't we? the fed with that surprisingly dovish statement. what has been the overall impact? >> we've seen currencies in europe and japan continuing to hold onto that strength. the other thing is also making market say, the fed is not going to increase rates as quickly as we thought, potential he looking to increase or stephen the curve, which will be positive for a lot of risk assets. rishaad: that's what we have there when it comes to it. a dominant theme has been oil. oil prices going south 30, people talking about $20 a barrel, are we pass those days? for a while? of observation i would make his we go back a couple of years, $110, $26, now
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we have rebounded almost 50%. fundamentals, if inventories increased, that is what will play on people's minds. secondly, the structure of the market has changed. shale producers easier to switch on and off capacity, which will put a ceiling than going back to the highs. that being said, you get to a point -- rishaad: and iran. look at relationships between russia, saudi, iran coming online, that is driving prices down. rishaad: that's just it. strange how all these equities have been working in tandem with the oil price? >> yes, risk assets have tended oil,ve, obviously commodities, and emerging markets have been the risk assets, but that is starting to
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change a little bit. whether it's brexit or european banks becoming the new risk proxies as people becoming less concern. rishaad: also the foreign exchanges, running entirely counter intuitive to what happens. you don't expect the yen to rally when you get negative rates. >> it has come back to where positioning is and where the concerns come. reducing interest rates helps out boroughs, but considering what it means for banks and what it mean for the financial system, people question that a little bit more. i think that is where we are sitting at the moment. rishaad: is it net-net net negative for the banks? >> if you consider what banks are doing, pronk short lending longs, collapsing the curve, and particularly with what is happening with assets. rishaad: especially the european ones. they need someone to steep and it. >> that is what the market is
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trying to tell you, and part of the reason why the fed has done is because they are keeping up the dollar part of the curve. rishaad: what is your advice? what is the top question you are asked by investors and what you tell them? >> i think one of the things to peopler is that a lot of are underweight in emerging markets, and underweight commodities. as a result, were seeing the steep reaction. the key for most people to consider is where we see valuations around the world if we are going to be in a more benign environment. valuations are supportive, and there are quite a few emerging-market assets in that category. rishaad: thank you for that. now to the stories making headlines around the world. barack obama arrived in havana for a three-day visit, the first
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sitting u.s. president to travel to cuba since calvin coolidge in 1928. they are accompanied by u.s. lawmakers from both major parties, corporate executives, and problem -- prominent cuban-americans. the president has restored relations and removed banking restrictions, but only congress can lift a trade of bargo -- trade embargo. russian investigators say the flight recorders recovered are severely damaged, all 62 people on board the boeing 737 were killed when it crashed and burst into flames while making a second landing attempt in russia's south. airline ceo says conditions for landing were appropriate, the weather was bad, and at least three other flights due to land at the airport diverted elsewhere. hasilian miner vale confirmed the death of its ceo and a light plane crash. he, his wife, son, and daughter, died when their single engine
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turboprop came down minutes after takeoff. the president pay tribute to overseeing anale, increase in its market capitalization. powered by over 2400 journalists and 150 bureaus around the world, this is bloomberg news. next, a up sophisticated operation, more details emerge about how hackers managed to steal from bangladesh central bank. ♪
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rishaad: you are watching "trending business". i am rishaad salamat. su keenan in new york. >> the week ahead in wall street will be a shortened week due to the good friday easter holiday, all markets closed on friday.
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a big question for the first , candays, u.s. investors the comeback continue? all major indexes now in the green for 2016 after one of the worst starts to a new year in history, and an impressive comeback rally helped by the fed forecast for fewer interest rate hikes this year. data will continue to be front and center, orders for durable goods are likely to have declined in february as manufacturers continue to grapple with weakness overseas and the lagging demand for business agreement. we will also get the latest economistles data, projecting that previously owned homes sales fell in february, while sales of new homes climbed for the first -- fourth time in five months. apple set to unveil a smaller screen iphone and ipad. hackers stole more than $100 million from the bangladesh
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central bank, stalking its computer system for weeks before gaining access. an interim investigation shows a sophisticated group of hackers. let's get more with our southeast asia correspondent. engths did the hackers go to? forhey were in the system two weeks, installed software that allows re-entry, and to make the payments look legitimate, deployed malware. investigators say it is the type of operation mounted by state actors. interim investigators -- others suggestby they covered their track every step of the way, all logs deleted. it is a money trail from the fed in new york, sri lanka, philippines, about 100 million dollars stolen, $81 million into
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the philippines, another $20 million and to sri lanka, all part of a bigger attempt to steal $1 billion. the fbi now to help with the probe. rishaad: how far-reaching are the consequences for the philippines here? is it at the risk of being blacklisted? it could threaten the wider financial sector in the philippines, and according to one senator, the country make it blacklisted as a money laundering haven. money laundering is a long-standing problem in the philippines. as well is the credit rating. it was raised to investment grade in 2013. the may be short-lived if government isn't able to allay concerns and show that it is taking actions. it has shown how money stolen from bangladesh was withdrawn and philippines, then cashed out
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in can see nose in manila through a local money changer. out with local money traders in manila. a lot more information needs to be had for this to be resolved. rishaad: thank you. let's have a look at some stories making headlines. georgia boorse's purchase of the london stock exchange -- saysche forces -- boorse byest and fueled expectations of a higher offer coming from the intercontinental exchange. shares 14% higher than the deutsche $12.8 billion offer. monsanto said to be exploring possible deals with basf in the battle for's agenda.
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buying its crop sciences business as well as 14 partnerships. the talks about the be the asset purchases of joint ventures. all refused to comment. ♪
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rishaad: a look at some of our top stories. it's taking chinese companies twice as long as there peers to get paid by customers. firm has to wait 83 days to collect cash. the accounts receivables have risen by almost 25% to nearly $600 billion, cash shortages are threatening china's vast supply chain. starwood hotels planning to accept a $13.2 billion takeover insurance's anbang
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group. share, aying $78 a , givenrth $69 a share until march 28 and renegotiate. foxconn takeover of sharp at risk of collapsing as delay in financing goes on. reports, foxconn seeking to pay 20% less for 4.4 billionthe dollars initially agreed over concerns about liabilities and future earnings. it has been 25 days since the board voted in favor of a bailout. bit of a turnaround taking place when it comes to asian equities, the first trading session and shanghai and hong kong. here is david. david: were watching for a few things. ,he standout to the downside markets and taiwan and australia, perhaps for a
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different reason. markets -- taiwan markets pulling back from a bowl ll level.bu elsewhere, china, three things, a story on bloomberg, on the website, basically loosening up rules on margin financing. we will see how that plays out. to look at the two big rallies over the past two years or so. at banking shares, and ipo and hong kong, tianjin bank. people familiar with the matter basically saying they price this ipo towards the bottom end of the range. pboc, what is the yuan
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doing now? a little bit weaker. overall, japan closed to mark the first day of spring. if you look outside hong kong, it looks like the middle of winter. fairly mixed at the moment, nothing much to trade on. i will leave it there. rishaad: it does look gloomy. byrwood says it's takeover anbang would mean ditching a previous offer from marriott international. insurancee the anbang deal is far more attractive, all-cash. that is the upfront what you see in the comparison.
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i think there is more behind the scenes that the board at starwood has to consider. number one, there is cost synergy with marriott, but what is not detailed is the revenue synergy, and underperforming starwood base of assets into marriott. they have a proven track record of being able to do that sort of thing, and you end up in a few years with a value greater. hand is worth two in the bush, but that two in the bush in this instance is a real intriguing, different proposition than just cash. and you have to think that the other stakeholder in here, the hotel owners themselves, starwood, marriott -- rishaad: they are franchised operations. >> absolutely.
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if part of the idea going to marriott is they are going to take my business and run it harder, i want to go to marriott. . don't know about anbang will they have the same impetus to push for change? i'm not saying we do or we don't know, but that's something the board will have to consider. aside.: let's move this it's amazing, i don't think a u.s. hoteln company in cuba since the 1950's. starwood could be buying three of them. cuba opening up as well, a lot of opportunities, but not as straightforward as all that. >> it is interesting because starwood has the bigger international footprint than a lot of globalize brands. no doubt that cuba is an market andped hotel
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the developing tourism market. it is a foot in the door, and starwood, given their international predilections, is a natural fit to do that. it is interesting. there are 63,000 hotel rooms in cuba right now, none of them what you think of as five-star appeal. that is an opportunity. rishaad: thank you very much. a new problem in china, unpaid have seenment delays account receivables swell by more than 20%, $590 billion. we have the latest from the bloomberg. problems fore china, $590 billion worth. this is a story on the bloomberg. story is thethe fourth one down out of the top
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china stories we have this morning. we have seen some big falls in terms of -- actually, i have pulled the wrong one up. my apologies. it is now the fifth story down on the top china stories on the bloomberg terminal. 1998.hart goes back to in 1999, we had gdp growth at a nine low in china. it took firms in china about three months to collect cash from their customers. when gdprly 2000's, was at a 15 year high, the economy tracking were strongly, it only took under two months for companies to get back their accounts receivables, but now in the latest filing we are seeing , a 25 year low, taking on average 83 days for a typical chinese firm to collect cash for completed sales. that is almost twice as long as it's in emerging market peers.
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we have seen account receivables blowout over the past two years by some 23%, $590 billion figure , that is more than the annual economic output of taiwan put together. a look at this chart as well, which is on the bloomberg, this white line is the return on common equity of these firms that are listed on the shanghai composite, and you can see that it has fallen quite significantly since september last year, very much into march this year. the blue line is the debt to companieso rising, trying to claim back cash, really impacting. economist says he sees two more years of hard times for the nation's firms. thanks. let's have a look at some other stories we are following at a
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time when china is tightening its control over the internet, mark zuckerberg met with china's propaganda chief. the facebook ceo was in beijing to attend an economic forum. he is a member of the chinese top this is in making body hoping that facebook and work with chinese companies to promote the development of the web. facebook and twitter abandoned china. topia, the animated feature, has earned more than $170 million since it debuted in china. it also spent his third straight week at the top of the box office, pulling in more than $500 million worldwide, and is still to open in the united kingdom and japan. the australian dollar poised for his best month since 2011, that's not swaying the world's biggest fund manager.
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black rocks manager for fixed income is sticking with his bearish call. expecting the currency to fall 15% are back below the seven-year low in january. cents.76 u.s. the priming us to illustrate has set the scene for a likely early election, which would see both houses of parliament dissolved, the first time in almost 30 years that that has happened. paul allen is in sydney. it would be a bold move from the prime minister. tell us about this plan and whether it could come off. paul: some are calling it a bluff, but the prime minister probably is hoping it will come off. he is putting two pieces of legislation before the senate, recalled, and if the senate fails to pass both of them, he has a trigger for a double to solution of election in which both houses are dissolved and
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reelected in a poll. if we take a look at those two they wantgislation, that to be resurrected, and that would make unions more transparent. both of those have very little hope of getting through. malcolm turnbull hopes that remains the case. at a press conference he said the time for playing games is over. the go slows and attraction by labor and the greens on this legislation must end. the senate will have an additional three sitting weeks abcc andwith the registered organization legislation, plenty of time to pass these laws. if the senate fails to pass these laws, i would advise the governor general to dissolve both houses of parliament and issue writs for elections. paul: that election would be
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held on july 2, if it happens. rishaad: why in such a rush to get this election over with? in a word, politics. malcolm turnbull's policy and party have been slipping. is opposition leader monumentally unpopular, so he would be hoping to capitalize on that, but the senate itself has been something of a problem, very obstructive, and sitting are a host of minor party senators who got elected with miniscule proportions of the vote. before we have mentioned of the motoring enthusiast party, known as the accidental senator. you can find a video of him at hisg kangaroo dung
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friends, so mock him tumble would like to see him out of the house. as i say, malcolm turnbull will be hoping that both of these bills do fail, and ultimately he can rid himself of this very difficult senator. rishaad: thank you very much indeed. all strays new trade minister will be joining us live in the next hour of the program, just under one hour away, 10:30 a.m. hong kong time. coming up, japan's latest inflation figures closely watch later this week. we will talk about that and what else is coming our way with ubs. you're watching "trending business". ♪
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>> welcome back. it is 9:44 a.m. in hong kong. these of the stories making headlines around the world. authorities have called
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off a soccer match about two hours before kickoff, citing an unspecified risk. reports say there was a bomb threat at the stadium. matches will be played at a later date. a man from islamic state carried out a suicide bombing in istanbul that killed four people. 13 people killed and 30 injured in a bus crash in northeast pain. the bus was carrying university exchange students back from the largest fireworks festival. into an oncoming car on the opposite side of the highway. officials say the bus was the cause, but the driver past alcohol and drug tests. iraq has shipped out the first exports of natural gas in its history. iraq first planned to start exporting gas in the late 1970's, delayed by the iran-iraq war. of ahipments are a result
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joint venture between japan's mitsubishi and royal dutch shell. it wages and extensive fight against islamic state. powered by over 2400 journalists and 150 bureaus around the world, this is bloomberg news. two asiane have central banks with rate decisions this week's, thailand and the philippines, both expected to stand pat, but watching for any comments on what they see in the pipeline. let's get more from the chief investment analyst for ubs. by the look of gdp in the u.s.. let's start with that one, along with japanese cpi. u.s.,rting with the 0.9%.ly downwards, q4 negativism,deal of but more to hospital spending,
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medical services, that pulls it down a little bit. what does thaty, mean for q1, q2 ? we think we are sticking to a 1% handle, but eventually the inventory situation catches up. the that has played out by middle of this year, we think there is room for 2% handles later in the second half. rishaad: i will come to japanese cpi in a second. 2% is probably in line with what janet yellen's thinking. littleough we are a below that. the reason for that is that we do expect more inventory correction than we have seen so far, but then for the second half on track, and also on track for two rate hikes, september and december.
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that seems pretty much in line with janet yellen's thinking right now. again at 111 the against the dollar with the possibility that we could be in the so-called intervention range. cpi this week, more deflation, a headache for them. >> absolutely. if we look at the components of the cpi number, the japanese core number, we have prices still falling. you take the first component of food out, stabilizing, so maybe that helps, but from the oil and energy side, year on you see first time positive impact if we stay at current levels, will be in november. all in all, a flat number, possibly slightly below zero,
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likely to give them a headache. rishaad: two countries out with interest rate policies, one has interest rates at 4%, philippines, and highland at 1.5%. nothing expected in terms of a move, but what are we looking at in terms of the economies of these two countries? philippineswith the , especially the bsp looking at the aftermath of the last two years when they had higher credit growth than other economies in asia. it is difficult for them to go loser. thailand, bot policy is already loose, and unlikely to loosen further. if they did, especially on the household side, you have the situation of elevated indebtedness, and you don't want
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to stoke that too much, so unlikely that the bot is doing anything this week. rishaad: any move down would not make much of a difference anyway? >> that's correct. you had early last year, the cuts, so difficult to cut it lower than that. at some stage, i would agree with that statement, economic benefits are outweighed by the concerns that would rekindle the indebtedness situation on the household side, so probably best not to do it. ok, well, where does this leave your investment strategy now? that is the point here. >> if we start on the global side, also given the equity markets have recovered to levels -- not outright expensive, but not that cheap either.
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yes, markets have realized that there is no recession and site, but not extremely strong gro lay thewe prefer to financial markets on the credit side. we have an overweight position in eurozone high yields, where we expect defaults to be close to 1%. that helps with the recent statements by mario draghi. on the u.s. side, the more recent upgrade we have made. the recessionary fears were overblown, yields, especially on high-yield side, quite attractive. yes, you will see rising default rates, we think investors get compensated by these extremely lucrative yields. rishaad: thank you for joining is. ubs wealth management. we have to take a break. twitter turning 10, next. i look how social media is
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reacting to that. -- a look at how social media is reacting to that. ♪
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athaad: let's have a look what is trending on social media, and it is social media itself, twitter marking its first decade. how are they celebrating? that really is trending, dozens, hundreds, of tweets flooding in. they say, we thank you for 10 incredible years, posting a video highlighting world events and tweets about them. variousa's, the pope, big events over the last decade
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or so. has 320 million active monthly users. 18% on mobile. started before the first 2007, but really apple iphone changed it all. rishaad: some are saying that it is already over the hill. that it have been talks is struggling to increase users, so that is one of the struggles that the company faces. the first tweet was this, there was another one, but that was apparently automated so it does not count. twitter,he comments on
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feels like traveling. you never know who you will meet on twitter. i love twitter. the only place you get excited when a stranger follows you. i love twitter because it brings people closer. you are reading this from very far away, aren't you? in other twitter news, jack dorsey confirmed that it will stick with its 140 character limit. news was outrage about the they would increase the character limit. jack horsey confirmed that is to stay. rishaad: it is easy to stay in touch. just use that handle there. you can follow me on twitter as well, @rishaadtv.
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there she is. a good picture of you. up next, australia's heavy reliance on china, we asked the trade minister if the slowdown is giving him cause for concern. ♪
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rishaad: is the first day of spring. this is "trending business." ♪ we are going to be visiting sydney and mumbai this hour. here's a look at what we are watching. crude, citing again. west texas below $79 a barrel after increasing the number of u.s. rigs, and currency weakens in response. anna,herat -- have president barack obama becomes the first president to visit in 80 years.
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and they will go with the makeover must marriott makes a better offer. singapore's prime minister could into the polls as the stock july over the labor laws. we will see why the new trade minister is not working out. #. can tweet us using this toding in indonesia getting start. we have david looking at the topsy-turvy start. david: he really has been. 0.3% inown to about indonesia. at some point, starting to drop, but we but -- but we might be hitting a bull market. we are roughly 1.5%. below the 20% which some people used to indicate the entry into a bull market from the low. elsewhere, australia, down,
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japan is shut to mark the first down of spring. -- first day of spring. 0.5%. down you look at volume, you get 55 if you will. singapore seeing pressure, down at 0.1%. a fair amount of the index, 20%, 30% maybe in overbought or maybe overbought. we are seeing that pullback at the moment. the first market in asia to enter a bull market this year. shanghai is another story. 1.6%, seven days of gains. it is really about the brokerages. on news, they are using these restrictions on margin trading. we will flesh the story out for you a bit later on. look at specific markets,
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financials are up very 9% gains for chinese brokers. really liking that news. we'll get to the details, that is also on the website and the bloomberg. this go to china, that will be there. you can see how it is when it comes to the margin finance or margin debt, whichever source, which is why we saw this rally last week. rishaad: thanks. looking at chinese policymakers as they warn of risky levels of debt. this comes days after the national people's congress a priority to achieving 6.5% annual growth. this comes from the pboc government. they say it will be difficult balancing. heidi is having a look at the challenges. no doubt about it, it is tough. positive, itt the is heartening the chinese policymakers have finally addressed the elephant in the
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room, the credit elephant in the room. many analysts and could say this is increasing. putting tops a new credit coupled with growth. all of these rates extending breaks to the chinese economy, and we saw that flagging. the leverage issue is one of the key reasons why it is cutting its outlook on china, potentially flagging futures. pboc governor over the weekend saying that china's debt to gdp ratio came to 150% last year from 166% eight years ago just before that global financial crisis. that is a huge stimulus boost in china. that really does pose macro risks, in particular, he singled out corporate debt. that comes about 100 and 60% of gdp, and also growing at a time when they have highly leveraged on these overseas spending sprees. we talked about one of the ones making headlines.
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there isuggested that confidence in the economy, currency, financial markets. it is a mindset issue, and he sees that as changing. >> overall, i think the view on china's reform going forward, china's economic future, and also the renminbi exchange rate. these discussions could soon be gone. we have evidence of that type of argument dissipating. define oneeally a to thing, that is progress fixing. ,eijing has just said that 6.5% 7% growth target for next year, and that tells us the policy priority is still growth over form and leveraging. the chairman has suggested a plan to stop high cost of debt to cheaper muni bonds. also a debt program being studied by the banking regulators. that would essentially allow banks to put their debt into
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equity states in the same company to do with the some currently on loan to chinese lenders. it would essentially free up capital for more lending to drive more growth. it is something of a strata cycle given the entire point is to deleverage. what will really help the situation is more robust capital markets, and that is something china still needs to develop. if they can do that, companies can get on equity finance and become less reliant on debt. rishaad: thank you indeed. let's like a look at other stories. what we are watching for you today, we have a lot of things in the mix so far. atiet is having a look china's richest man and why he is backing up an organization which has really been under the cost so far this year. juliette: that is right. backingrichest man is
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this organization. wonder group has become the bipa. major sponsor of -- fifa. like other will be chinese, he has been aggressively investing in soccer since the president made the sport a national priority last year. in mediaso got a spot agencies. twodeal will run through 2030. one analyst says it isn't worthwhile, and more chinese companies may follow. west weekly announced a $230 million loss. that was the first since 2002. the long-running saga of the a taiwaneset by company remains delayed. it may not be signed this month. cents sharks5
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board voted in proposal, choosing over another bit of japan's incj. and now they are finding late -- removedset -- sharp has what their specific, and they want more clarity. the taiwanese company is also seeking to reduce payment, 20% of shares. folks at sharp have said they are working towards a final agreement, but your company has yet set a signing day. neither company has yet set a signing day. the primates or of australia brought forward the nation's budget by a week, and threatens the earlier we come us the senate passes legislation on trade unions. he has said it was a handbrake on growth. theants bills to restore
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industry watchdog and set up a commitment to industry. the parliament will be recalled on april 18 two to spate the legislation -- to debate legislation. the last time this was called in australia was in 1987. rishaad: indeed, one of those questions we will be asking the australian prime minister as he joins us later on. that is coming up and about 20 minutes from now. and now, still plans to accept a takeover from china's and bank insurance, worth more than $10 million. but there is a previous from marriott international that seemed all but completed. roz has more. with a private investor and investment firm, and they have opted their offer by two dollars to $78 a share in cash, and that would make it 13
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point billion dollar takeover deal. -- $13.2 billion takeover deal. theyroposal to marriott, have a deadline of march 20 82 counter offer. considering the alternative. this would have created the largest hotel company in the world. this anbang deal does go ahead, stalwart would have to pay marriott. they are making a big question to u.s. hotels, and the trophy properties, paying nearly $2 billion for the waldorf-astoria. it also agreed to pay $6.5 billion for the cheatham resorts, which have properties across the u.s.. and then he to get approval by regulators and shareholders, and goes ahead, it will be
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the largest takeover ever of a chinese company of the u.s. buyer. , by thet get flagged committee of foreign investment, which looks at acquisition of u.s. witnesses by foreign buyers to protect national security. handle of the u.s. hotel, major hotel chains actually grow on friday. rishaad: on the website we are looking at china's of $590 million problem with unpaid bills. have a look at that on bloomberg.com/asia. coming up later, help for the hindrance, asking if this intelligence could be the next big thing for traders. that is next. in a goodocks putting show last week. and they repeat that pattern over the next few days? and we had the chief china strategist coming up. ♪
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rishaad: it was a field that boomed in last year, but there is a surviving threat for the margin. the state agency that provides funding to brokerages is offering shorter dated loans. juliet has got more on this story from the bloomberg. juliette: that is right. as we have been hearing from this morning, chinese brokerage are rallying on this. if you go to top china go on the bloomberg terminal, we are seeing the margin trading down. this is fueled by the boom. i want to bring up this chart that shows you what we can see. the white line here is the margin trading balance. we have got to see a spike earlier, before the crash over the summer of last year, particularly in the first half of 2015. there was a lot of money going into margin trading, and that
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fueled the boom we saw. you can see the blue line is the shanghai composite, which is the track. the big arises we have seen in margin lows. we started to see that money coming out and starting to fall. we are hearing a lot of state backed agencies are going to restart offering margin loans, but for a shorter period, ranging seven two 182 days. interest days will be cut quite significantly. the rate for 182 days, that will be cut to 3%. the lows for 91 days will be around 3.2%. this is some concern that we did see this big increase in margin trading last year really fuel that bust we saw in equities. that is why these rules committee holds margin trading. its insulate what we are hearing is that the -- essentially what we are hearing is that this is
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unwinding and normalizing back to where things were. there is mark calm in the chinese market. rishaad: to get more on this, we have achieved china strategist. why do this again? >> yeah, i think the market sees this as a sign that the government is trying to re-encourage people to take on leverage. deep in mind that after the stock market bubble people had to repay loans. the interest rate of this loan, it is quite high. actually about 4%. market interest rates continue to fall. for me, such interest rates is really trying to follow the market trend. rishaad: what is the ultimate goal of doing this? it is not just to get the stock market up. >> it would make brokering easier. the interest rate was so higher previously, people focused on
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not borrowing money. as a result, the margin lending businesses actually not making too much money, not as much as they did in 2015. now it is coming down, they are giving longer loans, making it easier to make money. rishaad: your got leverage increased here, and in the huge problem overall. we had a story today, which is of unpaid bills. $680 billion worth. >> that is a phenomenon that has been going on for a couple of years. the generation is quite poor. effect.es a chain the upper string can't pay the bills, and it does affect the lower string. i'm not surprised to see this receivable connection are not
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associated. rishaad: we have leverage they are, leverage their, and as far s housing goes. they have been doing three and four not so great. do you not see this as a problem? >> tier one cities and tear to tend to have up to 40% of national investments, so they are very important. the problem is, as the company price surge continues, eventually it will take equality away from stock markets and it could pressure the stock market. rishaad: that is just it. we have the stock market to tell. you think when it comes to certain parts of the greater china market, for one thing, isn't over for the shanghai market or the shenzhen market? >> we are seeing a strong rebound from momentum from the commodities and sector. there are positive developments
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as well. the mainland chinese market is very expensive. now we are trying to put on leverage again. i don't think it is a good recipe. rishaad: from the beginning it seems bizarre. the hong kong market has been disproportionately sold off. we are looking at price to earnings ratio, about 9%? many of these stocks under book value. isi think hong kong substantially cheaper than shanghai. at the same time what we see today, the action in the two markets are very different. hong kong is more measured, given by international investors. the domestic, chinese mainland market is retail. and the reaction is very positive to the news. that is coming out this morning. ,ishaad: and tell me something how did this all play out in six months ahead?
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>> i would say that there few people, including the regulators, who once lived the nightmare of 2015 -- rishaad: which is why i am asking that question. why do the same thing over and over and hope for the same -- a different solution? >> with different people you put on leverage so you can take leverage away from the complex sector. ratio is about 600%. only the chinese families can take on leverage now, and they have a ratio of 40% to 60% which is substantially less. haidi: the stories making headlines around the world, barack obama is in have on a, the first sitting president to travel to cuba. -- since calvin coolidge.
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corporate executives and prominent cuban-americans are there. restore banking restrictions and travel restrictions, but only congress can lift the trading embargo since 1962. russian investigators everett covered the black boxes -- have recovered the black boxes from the plane that crashed. all 62 people were killed when the crash happened when trying to make a second landing attempt. wereonditions for landing appropriate but the weather was bad, and three other flights due to land at the airport scattered elsewhere. confirmed the death of a ceo in sick -- in sao paulo. his wife and daughter also died after the plane crashed moments after takeoff. since 2011, seeing a
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$250,000 increase in the market cut. powered by over 2400 journalists in over 150 journals around the world, i'm haidi lun. rishaad: vietnam says it is time to reform. the interview with christine lagarde. ♪
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♪ rishaad: this is "trending business." vietnam will be vulnerable to external shocks if it does not reform the banking system and indeed restructure state owned enterprises. the managing director is touring asia. she spoke with her. we talked about the
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ineffectiveness of negative interest rates. >> if we had not had those negative rates, we would be in a much worse place today. so let's see whether it kick starts the process of fueling credit to the economy, changing the behavioral pattern of people, and changing the strategy of banks as well. it might be good for the economy , maybe not forever, but a period of time. reporter: china recently had the china recently had the national people's congress. there was concern that the government was too focused on stimulus and short-term growth at the expense of reform and growth. what is your take on that? >> we believe that china will continue to grow for one, and our assessment at the moment is 6.3%. we have to assess the decisions that have just been made up by the chinese authorities to factor in those decisions and see whether we forecast a little
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bit more growth, possible. reporter: you recently urged asian nations to take the lead in adopting more will relate policies to capture global economic challenges. which need to work on this, and what specifically would you like to see? >> i think the whole region needs infrastructure, and the financing of infrastructure him at whether it is entirely public or a mix of public and private is actually going to have a short-term impact on growth as well as a medium-term impact on improving the productivity factors. to see that across the region would actually be actually helpful, and that has been recognized by many investors now. reporter: during the visit to vietnam, you said the country had fallen behind regional competitors if it does not push through big reforms. how big are the risks? what is the worst-case scenario look like? from being slightly
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vulnerable, vietnam could become very vulnerable to external shocks. significantvery tightening of the financing that is available because of monetary policy decisions made elsewhere in the world. if you have a strong transition , ifhe chinese growth model you have commodity prices that will eventually fall lower and for longer, then it would expose the vietnamese economy, and that would not be good for the vietnamese population. rishaad:, we have david in australia. looking at the china slow down, how big is that effect? the trade minister, the new trade minister. trading business is active couple of minutes. also looking at bear markets. crude is extending declines. losses and commodity related stocks in this part of the
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world. chinese shares are bucking that trend up 1.5%, all amid plans to loosen curves around margin trading. we have more markets and beyond. that comes up when trending business returns ♪
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♪ rishaad: a look at our top stories, chinese policymakers raising concerns about the nation's debt levels. the pboc governor saying lending as a share of gdp is too high, china's total debt is believed to be 250% of gdp, corporate debt at 160% of output. the get us to funnel more savings and the capital markets. new fifa sponsor
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to put hundreds of millions of dollars, the first to do so since sepp blatter was ousted. starwood hotels plans to accept a 13 point $2 billion tank over group, and insurance less marriott comes up with a better deal. it will pay $78 a share in cash, eclipsing marriott's deal, worth $69 a share. starwood has given marriott until march 28 to renegotiat e. there,public holidays the vernal equinox. david is having a look at what else is going on. david: china's security finance up with a statement
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on friday, loosening the rules around margin trading, leading to gains there. let the give you the bigger picture. ,sia looking like this japan is shut today. there is not a lot of appetite for risk. break, healthy break, if you will. we've had five straight weeks of gains. this week still early on. i mention the shanghai composite, 1.7%. let me look at the line chart for that one. it reached 3000 a few moments 2999, the first time in two months, the prospect of more 3005 -- now -- now
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sending that one up. it is the brokerages enjoying the biggest gains at the moment, unsurprisingly given the new flow. brokerages,at the 8%, 9%, across some of these names. 9% as a whole, financials up by 1.7%. index higher the other markets story it is australia. we are seeing declines, some pressure at the moment. we will flesh that out for you a bit later on, all the political developments, but causing some pressure on the equity space across sydney. 76 aussie dollar, we topped
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$.76sense last week -- last week, pulling back a bit. , to reset where rock thinks the exchange will fall below the seven-year low we hit in january. let me open up a chart to show you that low. $.68, black rock saying we will go to $.65. the median forecast across 50 analysts, the median forecast is $.70 by the end of this year, a weaker aussie dollar despite this break we have seen above some technical levels.
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0.7588 is your level now for the australian dollar. hackers stole more than $100 million from the bangladesh banks, infiltrating computers weeks before the access. a sophisticated group of hackers, let's get more on this. extremet to some measures here, didn't they? >> you bet. it was sophisticated, and they did it all, sneaking through the system for about two weeks, also installing software that allows them to reenter and make the payments look legitimate. investigators say it is the sort stateration mounted by sponsored hackers. interim investigations by organizations suggest a group of hackers who cover their tracks every step of the way. all of the logs have been deleted. trailan intriguing money
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that went from the fed in new york to sri lanka and the philippines, about $100 million stolen, 81 million dollars sent to the philippines, $20 million center sri lanka, part of a bigger attempt to steal $1 billion. the fbi is now probing it as well. rishaad: what about the philippines? what happens next for their authorities? there is a risk of them being blacklisted. >> that's right. blacklisting is one thing, the highs could also threaten the wider financial sector in the philippines. there was the possibility of the philippines getting blacklisted as a money laundering haven. money laundering is a huge problem there. what is at risk is the country's credit rating, raised to may notnt grade, that be around for long if the government is not able to allay is takingshowing it
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action. it has to find out how money stolen from bangladesh was with drawn, then cashed out in casinos in manila. at a hearing last week, we were told that the bank had approval from senior bank executives. we still need some more answers. rishaad: thank you very much indeed. just having a look at the latest in these twist and turns when it comes to this investigation into how the bangladesh central bank was robbed of $81 million. a check briefly on some other thates, sources saying raised $140 has million after an ipo. the bank was said to price the offering at the bottom of the range. $560tors agreed to buy find
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million of stock. china tightening its control over the internet from a mark zuckerberg meant with the -- met with the propaganda chief well attending an economic form. he is a member of china's top decision-making body and helps facebook could work with chinese internet companies to promote the development of the web. facebook and twitter are banned in china. 's purchase ofe the london stock exchange could a snack.g several major investors have balked at the terms of the deal and question whether it could be derailed by antitrust concerns. unrest also fueled by expectations of a higher offer coming from the intercontinentalexchange. trading at a 40% premium deutsche boorse to deutsche 'sorse -- to deutsche boorse
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offer. parliament ahead of the budget session, let's get more in sydney. joining us is australia's new trade minister. thank you for joining is. you're going to go early this year, july 2. >> we will see what happens. minister has done is given the senate the opportunity to make a decision about that. the government has a fixed agenda. we want to see structural reform around the construction industry, a third of a economy, in terms of its contribution, employing about one million people. the abolition of the australian building and thetruction commission level of industrial disputation gone up by 34%. we want to give the senate a
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chance to pass these reforms. rishaad: there could be a game of bluff being played your prime minister, malcolm turnbull, as well. if we do get a double dissolution, would that be a surprise to you? not be a would surprise, but the decision about whether australia heads to the polls for a double dissolution election is a decision taken by the strain senate. we have given them ample opportunity, with parliament resuming on april 18, for them to have ample opportunity to discuss and debate the narratives of the australian building and construction commission, effectively an empire on the construction industry. they can respect the mandate on , upreduction of the abcc 34% since it was abolished. place, wes last in saw productivity gains in the
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construction sector of more than of merithere is a lot with this government strong focus on driving investment in infrastructure. if we don't see a blowout in costs rolling out across the stream economy, then we have to get reform within the construction industry. rishaad: how are the talks going with the parties and some of these independent candidates -- members, i should say? continue to discuss and engage with them on a regular basis we have put through senate reforms, have a strong agenda as we continue to see the austrian economy transition away from resources and energy and move towards adoption of new technologies and new opportunities for employment in the new economy, so that is at the core of the $1.1 billion national science agenda. we talk across the bench and speak to the parties about these matters. we want to see reform that we , to a mandate to implement
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not be blocked needlessly, but to be introduced. question, would you prefer to go earlier than later when it comes to a general election? >> i think what matters the most actually is what ultimately will be in the public's best interest. the government's dogged in our pursuit of this reform. we had a mandate from the last election to implement this reform. we will pursue this reform. i would call on the history and senate to respect the wishes of the australian people, let's get reforms in place in the construction industry, a key economic driver, consistent with the emphasis on transitioning our economy. rishaad: let's get to your job. you been trade minister since september. it has all been about free trade agreements, a lot of them signed under his tenure.
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you are confident you can achieve the same sort of frenetic pace of signing those agreements? australia has a very strong track record when it comes to free trade and liberalized trade. i am certainly not intending to take my foot off the accelerator when it comes to engaging with the world. i continue to have a strong focus, in fact i was pleased to meet with the indonesian trade minister only last week and formally declare the recommencement of discussions around a comprehensive economic partnership agreement with indonesia. indonesia is one of austria's closest neighbors and should be a significant trade and investment partner for australia, so we are recommence in those discussions, having withmal discussions countries, gulf state countries, having discussions and looking at opportunities also in relation to other multilateral opportunities such as the regional conference of economic
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partnership, so i intend to continue a frenetic pace when it comes to opportunities for australia to engage with the world. rishaad: what about the aussie dollar? that has improve your trade, hasn't it? you see more benefit from that? >> we have seen as part of that transition from resources and energy focus to transitioning towards new economy and innovative approaches that the aussie dollar has helped. the aussie dollar has bounced back with some weakness in the greenback recently. how that will play out, we don't know. is put into to do place the policies that will enable australian businesses to be competitive as possible. that might mean that in the long run the aussie turns back to its normal level, but these are the forces outside direct government control. we will make policy decisions we think our international interests. minister, let's talk a
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little bit briefly about the slowdown in china. how badly is it affecting your economy? think it is bad. what we are continuing to see, a bounceback on commodity spot is the long-term interest for australia, but austria has $160 billion of two-way trade with china. broad,g with china is but also look at broadening our relationship with a number of other countries. seere continuing to opportunities, particularly in relation to japan and korea, which are coming to the forefront now on the back of the free trade agreements we have done. watching closely as domestic u.s. debate around the transpacific partnership, hopeful that the dpp will go through in the u.s. congress pp will go through in the u.s. congress this year. minister, thank you
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indeed for that. the minister of trade and australia joining us there from sydney. we have to take a break. and theal intelligence ancient board game of go, but can it beat the financial markets? that and more when "trending business" returns. ♪
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making: already vital in electronic trains -- trades every day, some say artificial intelligence could help make smarter decisions. let's bring in the ceo of a financial and marketing firm. let's start off with that one. what is this? >> about 10 years ago, i had lunch and realize there was no
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real focus on expanding the knowledge in the financial marketplace for quantitative-based trading. typically you would go to a conference and they would put them in the corner. together we decided that if we put together a combination of investors, quantitative managers, as well as academics, we could explore this world. there was a big discussion as to whether or not investors should put money into a black box or into a human or discretionary trader. that's where the term, "the battle", came from. we put them on the stage. they went at it, and we had very spirited debates. we took a roll call of the audience as to whether or not one or the other won. rishaad: this is recurring, is it not? >> the new york event was such a
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success that we expanded to europe and asia. events in hong kong, tokyo, singapore, shanghai, and it has been a great success. quants have really come to the recently.ore maybe a year ago, they were still in the backwater, and because of quantitative easing and the lack of volatility, there was not a lot of trading. havead: you have to volatility to make that money, haven't you? quants were not sophisticated enough to take it to the next level. what we have now is a tremendous amount of data. data is the oxygen or the cornerstone of what drives a quantitative strategy. they want to
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analyze from various angles, and then they need capital investment, investors to say this looks like a good strategy. in the past, if you look at the 1003tplace, there are hundred 60 managers that are trading based on computers. it is only 10% of the business. rishaad: it is a big 10%. how many of them use artificial intelligence? what advantage is does it give to a high-frequency trader? >> artificial intelligence is a very general term. , machineike to say is learning, deep learning, the alpha go the just won the competition, the most sophisticated type of classification of artificial intelligence. it used to be pattern recognition in the 1970's and 1980's, and in 2000 we switched over to machine learning, a sophisticated way of analyzing data and interpreting it and
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having a machine see and recognize it and trade based on that. the next step in what is just starting to trend is deep learning, with the alpha go winning, your incorporating numeral net and looking at data in a much more diverse way, and the computer starts teaching itself, so that is the next step of where we go. right now the hot thing is machine learning and combining machine learning with big data. because of the proliferation of data, more data being produced on a daily basis, it is fair game. rishaad: loads to talk about. on the other side of the break, asking about machines whether they use their own intelligence or hours. more as "trending business" returns after this. ♪
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tohaad: let's get you back global capital acquisitions and the battle of the quants. we talking about artificial intelligence and quants and how these things are moving so quickly. how is algorithmic trading changing? >> if you take a look at the marketplace, the past quants were operating on structured data. there was the tech data,
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financial data, and looking backwards. the quants today are using unstructured data. with the proliferation of data and different sources of data, spree,are in a buying looking for every piece of data they can, bringing it in house and then analyzing how they can look at it and predict based on what that information is where markets will move and position themselves accordingly. what we are finding is that the investors are becoming increasingly sensitive to the quantitative managers, because interest rates are relatively zero, no fixed income that they can put money into read their eight -- reach their 8%. they are looking for those strategies that would take advantage of volatility. so where do they look? ,uants they look towards the but it is a comic world and they need guideposts. rishaad: machines are using their own intelligence or basing
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their intelligence on our brains who program them. >> we certainly are behind the algorithms being created so that machines can absorb information, interpret it, and after a certain point become self learning. that is what the concept of deep learning/numeral networks is all about. it has to think through a series of patterns that it saw, and pull from different components in order to predict what the next move it should make. it is doing a certain amount of its own decision-making. rishaad: last question here, china, a lot of questions about the veracity of the data we get. how much does that affect somebody who is using all these data points you are talking about to have an algorithmic trading system? , you have the government data coming out of the government of china, and then you have a lot of analytics tot are going beyond, going
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different sources, in order to analyze everything other than an as a resultber, and of collecting a lot of that different information, you can get a much more accurate number and not depend on one entity. rishaad: thank you for coming in. great to see you. he founded the battle of the quants and ceo of global capital acquisitions. that is it for this monday edition of "trending business". angie will join me and we will recap the big stories of the day , 200 of the world's leading galleries at the asia art show in hong kong this week. the asia director of art basel with me to talk about the show's evolution and what businesses can look forward to. ♪
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>> this is the middle of the asian trading day, and you are watching "asia edge." winning streak. chinese stocks hitting a two-month high as policymakers loosen controls on margin lending. this was fueled for last year's boom and bust. says it's aest man worthwhile deal.
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election footing. australia's prime minister clears the way for an early vote using a crackdown on trade unions as a trigger. angie: also coming up, hunted and hacked. a sophisticated gang behind a bangladesh bank heist. positive or negative. christine lagarde says rates below zero may be good for the global economy. premier artsia's show, bringing together more than 200 of the world's leading galleries. all that and more on this monday's edition of "asia edge." david: i am on market watch for you. i will be following the money and what is happening. 2.4% gains on the shanghai composite. it's a quiet, uneventful start to the trading week. you canrly mixed, as see. overall, the benchmark is lower. asian stocks

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