tv Bloomberg Markets BLOOMBERG March 24, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT
from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good afternoon. here is what we are watching -- market dipping on this final trading day before easter. stocks are closed -- are poised to step their five-day winning streak. and has market momentum hit a pause? says the u.s. economy is stronger than it looks and investors should be buying the dips. >> earnings haven't been that strong but we think those will pick up. overall, we think there is phenomenal strengthen the economy and we do think that, and we think there's a lot of room for equity markets to grow. fortunend why wheel of is cashing in big-time on political ads, bringing in $17.8
million at the start of this month as the overall effective ads and politics is called into question. are one hour from the close of trade for the day on this shortened weekend stocks are coming back from their lows of the session from earlier this morning. let's go to the markets where julie hyman has the latest. julie: you have practiced that. betty: vanna white, here i come. we are indeed coming back from the lows of the session. if you look at the one weak performance of the major averages, we see declined snapping their recent streak, the dow down as it goes back toward unchanged today. been characterized by this change in direction and characterized by lower volume.
group andlume by a you can see all 10 industry belowithading utilities volume down the most. this week has also seen the slowest trading day of the year. we have been watching the sectors with the financials being the biggest weight on negative analyst commentary and that as weng into see airlines and general -- and general dynamics selloff. we see telecoms and utilities into a little better and limit some of the declines we had been seeing. and this has been a change of course this week. julie: we have had the movement this year where commodities were down in stocks were down and in the reversal happen on february
11 and now we have another reversal, at least for this week. we have the s&p and yellow and the commodity index in green. ofgoes back to the beginning february. has gone downr and stocks and commodities have recovered until this week. the uptick to pass and the past and found second half and commodities he if it last beyond this week. is earningssts season and we will see what the direction looks like once we get this report. bloomberg's get to first word news with mark crumpton at the news desk. biden sayspresident it was president obama's responsibly to nominate a moderate to the supreme court in an effort to appeal to the republican-led senate. vice president said it is the
senate's turn to do its part. ise president biden: nobody saying individual senators have to vote yes on any nominee. voting no is always an option and that is their option. ing nothing, seeing nothing, reading nothing, hearing nothing and deciding in advance simply to turn your back before the president even names and nominee is not an option the constitution leaves open. abdication of the senate costs solemn constitutional duty. it is an abdication, quite frankly, that has never occurred before in our history. republicans say they are following the so-called biden rule, red deck -- rejecting the nomination of merrick garland
during election year. mr. biden said there is no biden rule. it doesn't exist. u.s. has accused iranian backpackers of carrying out a cyber war against wall street. the group is charged with targeting the new york stock exchange, bank of america and capital one among others. >> today, we have unsealed an indictment of hackers employed by security companies working on behalf of the arabian government, including the islamic revolutionary guard corps. a federal grand jury in manhattan found these seven individuals conspired together and with others to conduct a series of cyber attacks against billion target in the united states financial services industry that in some cost victims tens of billions of dollars. said the attorney general there were occasions cyberattacks prevented hundreds of dozens of customers from accessing their accounts.
in moscow, the russian foreign minister is touting operation with the u.s. on the civil war in syria. agenda, identifying ways to turn a shaky truce into peace talks in -- aimed at ending a five-year war. secretary john kerry had talks with flatware putin. flawed data in concussion result downplayed long-term injury effects. report says the league failed to report 100 concussions, including those of steve young and troy aikman and research between 1996 and 2001. global news 24 hours a day for by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. betty, i would like to buy a vowel. [laughter] betty: this will be our running
joke into easter. our next guest says there are three major risk to the rally, their turn of dollar strengths, weaknesses oil commodity prices, and a return to disappointing economic data. he joins us from boston. is this as good as it gets? not necessarily, but julie talked about how the market this year had been coordinated with oil and the dollar. have seen the jump in the dollar and drop in oil prices. we can see a slow and steady rise in the dollar. a slow and steady decline would be ok. enough toy do were make the market moved to the downside. it's going to be the dollar in oil that dominates things.
i don't think this is as good as it gets, but we have had a strong rally here and it would not be bad to see some consolidation. the chart we bring up that shows this is deja vu all over again? if you look at the pattern from the beginning of this year, it traces how the markets behaved in the last few months of last year. we had a big dip and you came up and now we are plateauing a little bit. if you watch what happened last year, we saw a sharp 1% drop and if we follow that pattern, we are in for that sharp drop again. guest: i don't think we are going to follow that pattern and rollback down again. back then, we ran into a tough
of economic data and we ran into a difficult time as it relates to the dollar and oil prices. we don't believe we are going to see that this time. i think a sideways move more than a return back toward the lows is more likely for this market. one thing we can bet on, volatility is here to stay. a guest from deutsche bank had a different view. hero day know note that he believes borrower bash -- barring some drastic piece of news or the dollar suddenly surging or something coming from china, the market can go up another 10% -- when you hear something like that, do you think he is off the reservation?
what it would take is an ingredient that is missing, earnings growth. turnaroundto have a in earnings growth and that does not appear to be on the horizon for this quarter just ending. upturn latesee an this year and even early next year given some of the drags. way to see that kind of momentum in stock prices. i think we're going to mark time and remain in this volatile range. paying too much attention to the dollar? is the fed weighing too much attention? guest: maybe, but is a signal of what is going on with global monetary policy. reflection of monetary , itcy, where in japan
backfired and went the other way. we look at the dollar as a signal of what is working or not working and what we have seen is an ineffective monetary policy implemented around the world this year. betty: have a great weekend. chief global strategist at charles schwab and company. much more ahead. prizes of clinical advertising -- how wheel of fortune raked in almost $18 million in clinical ads and what it means for media companies. plus the battle between yahoo! and star board takes a new turn. starboard wants to replace the entire board. is marissa mayer going to give in to that demand? as we had to break, a look at the tech heavy nasdaq.
betty: you are watching bloomberg markets. washington wants to buy a vowel theiral campaigns try hardest to spell success. however the real winner here is wheel of fortune, the long game show is the biggest beneficiary of this year's record campaign spending spree. drawexactly is the big ad for vanna white and company? why is a game show like "wheel of fortune" that attractive for the super pacs and put campaigns? guest: it's all about the
demographics. show 10 towatch the field older, tend to be women and vote more than the average population. how much money are we talking about? $57 million in political ads. that's even better than the summer olympics did with political ads. betty: who is in company with them? the nbc today show and "jeopardy" produced by the same people that did wheel of fortune. inlly a lot of cash flowing is floodeddia market and they are looking for programs they can depend on. "wheel of fortune" has been a
favorite for many cycles. are we going to exceed targets than? guest: it is already seven times greater than it was. if you look at another midterm election cycle, markets like little mark -- like a little rock, arkansas. outside many just poured in and spotspots -- 30 second were going for dramatically larger than just months earlier when it was $1200. betty: i thought these super pacs and clinical campaigns wanted to go after the younger demographic. they are not going to find it on a "wheel of fortune" platform. ofst: you are seeing a lot excitement in these primary states for people like bernie sanders, when it comes to the general election, it's the older
folks you can depend on to turn out. betty: they do go to the polls. thank you so much. has challengede the limits of traditional advertising. the chairman of saatchi & saatchi joined bloomberg surveillance and discussed whether it is still relevant in campaigns at all. they said we lived in a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous. i think they were spot on. that is what is happening. volatility goes up, down, everywhere. that is the world we are living in. lbj you started the
goldwater nuclear bomb at. is this the year where an ad can change the dialogue for the two remaining candidates? guest: those days are over. the people who change the dialogue now are we the people, how we receive it and share the message. labor isomb ads, working, or whatever, that is not the way forward this year. much uncertainty, so you need clear messaging. if it's not the big, bold added, it must be through social media. what advice would you give to any residential candidate? is it one message, stick to it and make it coherent? that is thenk standard response we would have got four or five years ago but now we live in a much more complex and ambiguous world, so we have to be constantly building relationships and constantly moving.
execution will be strategy day in and day out. both candidates have to win the race, job number one, then you will see the terrain change as it comes down into this head to head and it will be a battle every day in a rapidly changing environment to win the emotional high ground. aformation and facts are thing of the past and this together election and is going to be can we reassure the people out there they are going to do the right thing? francine: is there not a case to be made that if you want to reach out to the moderates or people who are thinkers then you have to have a streamlined message? why is the execution so important question mark you are putting yourself out of business. if you don't disrupt yourself, you are being disrupted. i think in this world, the usp
betty: this is bloomberg markets. before we get to options inside -- a quick word on nomura. they're planning major jobs cuts in north america. sources say they may dismiss as much as 30% of its staff. firm has about 25 hundred employees in the americas. maybe not a surprise seeing the results from these banks.
stocks are paring some of their losses. is standing by with our options in sight. for theith me today options inside is the managing director at kkm financial at the cboe in chicago. seen if not ahave full brakes on to the rally, definitely a pause in it. you have gdp tomorrow -- what's the further direction? dan: it's the first contested side of the push-up and at 2050 on the spx. you will probably see little more weakness heading into the earnings cycle because the fed has mixed the signal this week in the market is struggling with how that is going to play out. couple th with the fact we are running into key technical levels and it feels like the market is a little heavy.
what you are talking about what the fed, getting the dovish commentary out and some beingdual that officials hawkish in their commentary, the asset that appears to have affected is the u.s. dollar, where we have seen a rebound that has rippled across the market. do you expect that to be the case? is that the impetus for the decline in commodities and stocks for the past week? dan: you saw that last week and as that strength continued to build on itself, that is when we saw oil under pressure and that led the market lower. same,ontinues to be the certainly if the fed looks to move sooner than the markets anticipates.
that will disrupt markets and keep volatility somewhat elevated even though it is at a lower level. in that any shift nature when we move the interest rate further, that will increase volatility. you are looking at the etf that tracks the russell 2000 index of small caps. will that be more affected than the broad market or large caps? dan: i do. from a technical standpoint, the was a nice run off the lows but not nearly as strong as we have seen in the larger cap sector. is influenced tremendously by that and what is going on globally. any further weakness, if you see further weakness there, it will be exacerbated in the russell.
so what trade are you looking at? i'm looking at a protective put spread. we will see some up and downs after this egg run up and i'm run-up whiche june would offer some nice protection to the downside. the june market gives me a little time to play this market and i see some further weakness before we see a rally further in the year. julie: thank you so much. have a great holiday weekend. more bloomberg markets next. we will be talking yahoo!. ♪
lowered the terror threat level one notch but say the situation is exceptional and grave. another attack is, they say, likely and possible. they willinister say step up investigations of terror networks and will stand determined against terrorism. the same islamic state network carry out the terrorist attacks in both muscles and paris. for thethose blamed violence lived in brussels. the yugoslav war crimes tribunal has sentenced a former leader to 40 years on charges of orchestrating atrocities during their civil war. the yuan court found him criminally responsible for genocide in the 1995 massacre in which 8000 muslim men and boys were murdered. politics -- more than halfway through the presidential nominating season
which hillary clinton entered as the enigmatic favorite and is now in a virtual tie with bernie sanders. a new bloomberg poll shows senator sanders with a 49% to 48% lead. voters say sanders would do more to help the middle class but in the elegant race, mrs. clinton enjoys a sizable lead. the gop is not rallying behind plans to stop front runner donald trump. voters backlican the view that the person with the most delegates should get the nomination even if the candidates -- candidate does not have a majority. michigan lawmakers voted to extend emergency aid to keep detroit's ailing school district open for the rest of the year. the move avoids the prospect of palos heydays. rick snyder plans to sign it
into law. news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists and more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i'm mark crumpton. markets are closing in about 30 minutes. the dow and nasdaq have turned positive in the last 10 minutes, on track to snap a five week winning streak. abigail: this reversal is pretty amazing, turning green perhaps unless it finishes higher today, that five week winning streak will be snap. dragging on the nasdaq are travel related stocks in the wake of the brussels tragedy. 4%. about pariso, shares are above
attack levels last year. when we look at the last six months, we see a lot of volatility. this has to do with some of the competitive pressures the company is fighting. the company has been fighting a negative growth cycle that perry gold thinks priceline is best and maintains an overweight rating. american airlines is one of the worst percentage performers, down about 7%. very interesting is the fact that george ferguson says this has very little to do with the brussels tragedy. he thinks it has to do with rising wages, fighting for share in dallas and the possibility of slowing growth in major latin american companies. this suggests american airlines could slide back down
into a trading range formed over the last year. betty: what about winners in the travel space? america and is up on a report the company is looking to sell a part of itself and that that they may be approaching potential suitors. betty: how much more pressure melissa meyer stand? the latest comes from starboard value with a hedge fund seeking control and the company has hired a whole new slate to take over the board. my guest wrote a column about this latest move. the stock went down at the open and has climbed its way back up. it's going to much unchanged on this news. this is just the next
chapter in a very long slog for yahoo! shareholders. is thatrboard is saying by nominating a full slate of the pace tohey want pick up in terms of monetizing assets. we want the board and management team to pick up the pace when they talk about selling the core yahoo!s and monetizing in japan and alibaba stakes. i think starboard is saying there's a lot of work to be done and it should be a question of timing here. guest: the tactics they employed here basically antagonize them.
they appointed to new board members literally the same day yahoo! and starboard were scheduled to meet. it's just not smart when you are yahoo! and dealing with a lot of issues and now you are dealing with an activist shareholder. it is the classic activist playbook that you don't give in, but in the place of yahoo!, a company with very little credibility, it doesn't seem wise. betty: but jeff smith and star board still own 1% of yahoo!. how much they do they really have? it is surprising they would make a move to replace the entire board. they are in such a week's
edition that a shareholder of 1% can represent the wishes of the shareholder base. recognize there's huge value in the asian assets and the company has not figured out a way to return that innate tax efficient manner. the core business continues to decline and you -- and lose business quarter after quarter. shareholders are saying let's monetize this now and try to get the most assets for it. and is of the essence orissa meyer said this whole process could take more than a year. betty: why du think she is in her job still? guest: quite frankly, i think the board was supportive. you have to give her some credit. she came into a situation that was untenable. fore was not any chance
anyone to turn it around. she made some acquisitions at the time which could have been good, but nothing she has done has proven itself in terms of reigniting the revenue growth. really hasund plan no traction and i think the board has come to grips with theyand therefore, i think are aware of setting off the business and hiring investment bankers. could her leaving be part of the answer? guest: it could be, but can anybody do a better job? this is a company that has been on and off a disaster. there's been five ceos of yahoo! since 2011. the company has been in and out of crises since 2008 when microsoft made a hostile offer.
a rightsure there is ceo for yahoo!, if there were, that ceo would he him place right now. people aresure speculating at the very least, people are talking about her job being in danger. are there any names at all out there? guest: the real issue for a lot of investors as they have come to the realization that the internet has passed yahoo! by. go back huge place to in the day like aol, but now google owns search, have missed social, facebook owns social. missed waves, yahoo! has mobile, so the big waves that have transformed the internet, yahoo! has missed and they are in a position that is very weak and not defensible in my opinion. betty: when you said that, i was
thinking i can't member the last time i went to a yahoo! site. i just can't. i'm sure people do. the prospectus says yahoo! has hundreds of millions of users. yahoo! is popular, that's not their issue, though they are losing users. their problem is that they can't make money anymore from their huge user base because they missed some of these waves of threat trends. betty: knows the prize, five ceos since 2011. thank you very much. still ahead, there's more room of the stock market pieces -- and he will tell us why that is. and as we had to the break, a
betty: this is bloomberg markets. i'm betty liu. let's look at how markets are trading as we in the trading week with just a little over 15 minutes for the closing bell, the s&p hovering just below the red line. still in the red but it looks like it's about to make a recovery, which happened with the dow and the nasdaq. it looks like we are going to be snapping this five-week winning streak. the sectors that powered this rally are losing steam this week.
where does the market go from here? the ceo of tia global joined tiaa manages-- more than $854 billion in assets. we have a lot of uncertainty in the market. the u.s. market is strong and we think there will be strong numbers for the u.s. economy. even though there may be a pause after what has been a nice lift in the quarter, we think the u.s. market has a good amount of room to go. irope has a lot to go but think people are just taking a positive here. that has an impact on commodity prices as well. 17 times forward earnings is what the s&p 500 is trading at. i can't reconcile that with the out of pessimism. is the market overvalued? we don't think so.
we think it is appropriate that there's a bit of a pause. we think the u.s. economy is more strong and robust than it has been given credit for. we think we will see a bit of a pickup and we think the fed will be pretty moderate in what they do. we won't see a dramatic increase in rates overall and we think we could go back above the s&p highs we reached before. we don't think it is overvalued. will come oneople and say we can afford to be in cash. guest: it is tough to afford to be in cash at the moment. side.ays have cash on the if you think you are going to have a bump or some dips, it has been a volatile market. but we use that and we think
europe is a better opportunity. vonnie: you seem to be speaking broadly and there was a post saying it's not a bull or a bear, it's more like a honey market. what would be the catalyst for what we would see as another leg higher? guest: we need to see continued employment gains and wage growth. i think the fed will look for that as well. i manufacturing is going to pick a and they think there is recession ahead and that's not where we are. those are the kind of factors to make us feel good about increases. here forave a chart
those of you playing along at home. you say the market is not overvalued and we are not even backing that mean here, which is the blue line over the last 16 years. what factors do you look at when you are trying to figure out where we should see s&p price-earnings valuations? the historical mean is in the most important measure whether we are over or undervalued. history is important and grass like that are important and useful, but we also look at what are the factors going on right now? what are people's other options? to be in the fixed income markets, there's not much there for investors overall. are on the world, many of them are not the answer. will have its shares of
problems and we think it will end up doing pretty well. consumermpart, it is confidence and consumer spending. it is about a number of different factors and jobs overall. it's a wide range of factors. earnings hadn't been that strong but we think those will pick up. fundamentalthere's strengthen the economy and we do think that, then we think there's a lot of room for equity markets to grow. was the president and ceo of tiaa global management. the close of trade just moments away. here are where the major averages stand. ♪
betty: markets are closing about 10 minutes time. a flip-flope have here. julie hyman has your markets check. are we going to end in the green? julie: i don't know. we have nine minutes left and the dow and nasdaq are very slightly higher. the s&p still lower. is going to bet the lowest trading volume day of the year surpassing -- i don't know what you would call it. as you look at the daily movement of the s&p 500, you see we have been climbing into the close but not quite hitting in to that unchanged level. the year to date, we see the dow in the green but the s&p and
nasdaq are still in the red, so and i wanted to point out a couple of movers during the session. was critical of the federal trade commission. hearing where the fcc could further scrutinize and attempted acquisition of office depot. a lot of analysts are now saying it's more likely this deal will indeed go through. there's another trouble deal -- energy transfer equities has been trying to acquire the company because of the collapse in oil and the deal
has looked less and less attractive. it looks like energy transfer cannot get out of it. its initial estimate of its fallen andost has the acquisition not doing much when it finally does close. thank you so much. hedge funds might have to start buying the same stocks that they spent the beginning of the are totally swearing off -- we are talking about energy shares. energy shares posted the worst return, falling 24% but have been among the leaders of the rally when markets autumn and in february. i want to bring in our bloomberg stock market reporter. are they jumping into energy shares? ofst: so far, at the end 2015, they have been some of the
most bearish on energy that they have been. to 2008 only dates back but this is the lowest holdings they have had of energy. you take that into account and this rally energy has had, manage -- imagine yourself looking at that saying i have no skin in the game. approach, the hedge funds really have to start looking at their portfolio allocations and jump into energy. are there any parliamentary signs of that? guest: the first signs are long only managers. they have started to rebalance. is to, the data we have the middle of march. hedge funds have not jumped in yet. the question is are they going to jump in and when?
if you look at the return versus the s&p 500, they are quite behind it this point. they want to catch up to the s&p 500, they will have to start thinking about investing in some of these spaces. they: what would happen if hedge fund came in as hard as they sold out last year? guest: we would certainly get a lift to energy. at the end of the day, they only need to add a couple of basis points. if you have a lot of managers, even if they are adding a few aces points, that's going to add up. are we looking across the border where might we go first? a lot of these names have taken a big hit because they have a lot of debt. those might not easy faces hedge funds want to go. namesight look at bigger
to increase their exposure to energy. betty: thank you so much. possibly jumping back into the energy stocks. that does it for bloomberg markets. up next is the market close and "what'd you miss?" major averages are trying to turn all green. the s&p is left behind. here's how they are trading for minutes away from the closing bell. ♪
alix: u.s. stocks mostly flat. the question is, "what'd you miss?" a change to yahoo!, it is enough to revive the giants? how likely is brexit, and what are the risks? about cyber attacks against the u.s., and risks to our national security. we begin with the minutes. even with u.s. stocks closing at a session high, risks before the three-day weekend. telecom as the best s&p 500 performing. financials were not