tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg March 28, 2016 10:00am-11:01am EDT
bloomberg television. ♪ betty: we will take you from new york to detroit in the next hour. here's what we're watching, 30 minutes away into the trading session after the long easter break in new york. stocks are fluctuating after the s&p dropped last week. investors are watching economic data for clues on the course for interest rates. then, commercial real estate market and how it could be affected by potential rate hikes from the fed this year. the changes from pandora after the company severed a decline in users. the cofounder is named the ceo more than a decade after he last ran. the world passes largest online radio service. speaking of real estate, we want
to head to the markets were matt miller has the numbers for us. eight beat here in the top line. matt: a huge beat her we were looking for a drop of 0.4 percent compared to a job of almost 1% in the previous month. pending home sales are up big. that is the year-over-year number. the month number up date but that is not as interesting. maybe that is why we have seen a huge lumber rally. have you noticed lumber has been safe lately really up. >> you would notice that. matt: gmm go. oil are ripping up. andcan pull up my terminal see a lot of movers you might not otherwise see. now see wheat and soy bp
pending home sales up 5.1%. in all seriousness, very good news for the home market. are getting a lot of housing earnings coming out this week. penny home sales, they definitely bold well -- bode well for companies like that. they do not necessarily gets old. matt: that is right. a better indicator of how the market is doing. let's take a look at how the market is doing now. check out the broader indexes here. we see gains across the board. no, in fact we see the s&p down. i will call this unchanged. i was not really wrong there. the dow jones print much unchanged as well. the nasdaq is down just a little bit. take a look at the imap i have got up in my bloomberg right now. you can see who the winners and losers are.
the big losers, energy, i.t., and industrials. oil has been interesting. up and dropped around 9:00. a small change only around $.29. really the store -- the story and oil has been a strength in last two weeks. we see a weakness today in as well.e and devon pandora is a story the ladies were just talking about. fascinating story. tim is coming back. you can see the stock down 9% now. it is a little bit strange considering the chart i am about to pull up. 707 in my chart library. when tim stepped down, he was the chief strategic officer and his stock was soaring. he left in february of 2014 and the stock fell 70%.
the fact that he is back should be, you would think, good news, but investors are selling it off. >> a lot more ahead. thank you so much. time for a look at our first word news this morning. you to that. take belgium is expanding its counterterrorism investigation. remorse ss have been charged in the wake of last week passes attack in brussels. there were also attacks and italy over the weekend. the death toll is raised to 35 effort after victims that in hospitals. a suicide bombing appears to have targeted christians celebrating easter. least 72k killed at people. at least 300 others were wounded. the taliban says it is responsible. pakistan's prime minister has called for united fight against terrorism. , a strategic defeat.
to recapture the ancient city, famous for its 2000-year-old ruins. many of the monuments were destroyed last may. israel has issued an advisory for turkey, warning its citizens to leave the country as soon as possible and avoid traveling there. the threat is the second-highest warning level that israel that issue. three israeli tourists were killed in a suicide bombing earlier in march. responding tos president obama's trip to cuba with a long and bristling letter recounting aggression against cuba. the letter said we do not need an empire to give us any prevalence. mr. obama did not meet with fidel castro but met with several times with his brother, raul castro. global news powered by 2400 journalists around the world.
pending home sales, up 3.5%. we are joined by jonathan, who has a year-end equity target of 20 to 25, an all-time high. possibly supported by the housing numbers. jonathan, when you look at this and where the fed stands, it looks like the next move is going to be rate hike by the fed. i think of the fed finally does move, which they should, inflation hovering it would be there signal that it is all clear. the data is telling you already that it is all clear. year-over-year, 1.7. the question is not whether or not the fed should have an easing policy. should it have this up seeing an and the answer that silly not.
vonnie: are you expecting the fed to move in april? is probably off the table but a couple of moves this year are probably reasonably a good bet. i think john is not off the table at this point in time. if you go on your bloomberg and look at what is inside on the futures or options market, it is may be.hike vonnie: this time around, will -- will we contribute meaningfully to gdp? >> i was talking to bob, our housing specialist. he is talking to the companies and their sing all the science that this will be a healthy spring selling season. march through may, we are just
walking into the beginning of it and they are optimistic. heading intould be additional support for the economy. my house.lling you were talking about the function on bloomberg. traders, if the fed were to raise in june, is that consistent and how much will it change based on jobs data? jobs it is coming out friday. >> a number that is more important is by the end of the year, only a two thirds chance that they will even have a single rate by the end of the year. theink the key is that expectations for the path of the fed is way off the market in terms of what the market is expecting. the key here is this is not a data issue. the data they're focusing on if at all is what is going on abroad in terms of global growth
and the second is global stability. what they are mandate is his jobs and inflation. we have an unemployment rate under 5% and inflation moving toward 2%. if you look at core cpi, it is over 2%. there is very little reason for processnot to begin the and the market is coming down. the surprise would put positive fed's plan. could janet yellen say things that could make things more definite? >> she surely could. at the very least, she has to recognize that market conditions, something that have an a real concern, have calmed quite a bit. the fear indicator
or volatility indicator, it goes from 28 two below 15. that is an indication that market nerves are calming down. interest rates, which moved below 1.7%, a sign of risk aversion, that was back at 1.9, showing we are getting back -- >> why did the markets go down last week? we have five weeks in a row of market of 12% and he lost .4% in a week. listen, i think we sometimes read too much into it. you're looking at a market only a couple of percentages off of all-time highs in the data is all moving in the right direction. the big concern i had five or six weeks ago was oil when it was in the mid to high 20's and thinking, we could have created all kinds of problems for the global economy. that appears to be largely off the table. it appears to be positive. vonnie: the probability of a
hike at 34%, still not massive. >> it is tiny. it really should be higher than that. vonnie: stick with us and we'll look at what sectors you have your eye on next. coming up after a year-long stretch in which stocks have gone no work, are we seeing the bull market pause or could a bear market becoming? , that is what they're forecasting. >> from here to the bottom of the bear market, we expect it will be larger than that. think the low we put into .5 weeks ago, february 10 and 11th, it is a pretty solid one and a bear market rally is underway that could take us up to the 2060 range. that would be a 10% to a 12% bear market rally. vonnie: one of the most bullish strategists next.
betty: you are watching bloomberg markets. vonnie: we are joined by jonathan. s&p's try to bounce back after a winning streak. earnings in freefall. equity fundshike, by the billion spirit the recovery may be running out of steam. the s&p has not seen a new high in 10 months, making it the longest streak outside bear market since 1995. some investors calling it a bear market rally rather than a market pause. the interesting in about this it is true butat
of the seven times that it has happened since the 1930's, the 12 months after saw equities rise maybe 20% or more. what these see in the next 12 months? weour expectations were that would have something in the eight to 9% mark. i do not see why that would be any different. the reason for the pause is collapse in oil prices. if somebody would have said interest-rate are down for the last year and oil would have elapsed way it has, i would have expected no better than what we have seen in the last 10 months to we're seeing the headwinds from oil are really coming off. it looks like it will be another good earnings season. it sounds like rather than looking at the pause as it refreshes -- refreshes, we should actually be paying attention to oil?
really overshadowed what is going on. if you took out energy, you had a 7% earnings growth. i hate with people throughout the bad stuff because it seems as if they are trying to game the numbers. in reality, we did not have a broad-based earnings recession. we had a problem in a reasonably average, boring environment otherwise. year ahead,k at the we are important is still in a slower growing economy and it does favor .ertain kinds of companies there is a lot to make money on but you have to call it what it is, slow growth backdrop. what will happen in terms of the overall outlook? probably more cost, but really cutting to the bone, can
buybacks continue forever? >> are not cuts in jobs. when you look at, we are 200,000, jobs more or less a month, that is what we are expecting for friday, you see companies growing revenues more than they are growing their expense base because companies have large fixed overhead. once we continue to not be in a recessionary environment, they continue to take it overhead and spread it through sales. demand is back. classes is not huge but you see sales growth going forward at 4%. normal and healthy would be seven. it is just not a disaster. in that environment, when the company can squeeze a little more out of margins and buy back 1.5% of shares, you get something like a six to 7% environment on an economy which is really not it's -- i'm
inspiring. that is enough to fuel this thing to keep going and that is what we have. losers, i would not be a value investor now if i had the choice. your: i am looking at latest note and what you said to put your money in. focus on secular growth and stable growers. secular being what? biotech? >> companies driven by intellectual property, like biotech, new tech ideas, things related to the cloud. company'swers are the that are, boring, mid to low lessh, with a lot of -- volatility. consumer staple brands, number of insurance companies on the list, defense contractors, guys who haul waste, waste management companies. to grow and they do not need a good economy in order to grow.
they simply need an economy not moving in reverse and that is where we are. classic sounds at what is the difference between going from large to small caps? on theseuld make money themes if you were a small-cap investors well. here is what i don't think you want to do, to invest. some of the stuff that has been running recently, those areas that are economically dependent. industrial, materials. weakness we are seeing is coming out of china, a lack of a willingness to invest in infrastructure. in that environment, the cyclical areas are the ones more challenged. momentum,chnology and would you stay away? >> if you look at tech and break it into new and old tech, it is is to separatet
sectors. the last quarter, you had something like 13% earnings andth in new tech names negative in old tech. i would avoid those areas. perhaps not surprising 30 see the same thing in the retail space. those companies in amazon's crosshairs are really getting beat not and having a really hard time. these are traditional retailers, guys we grew up -- those retailers not in amazon's crosshairs, with home depot and lowe's, auto retailers are doing much better. bigger winners and losers. betty: thank you, jonathan. much more ahead, the bidding war for star board hotels is not over. they will revise the offer from a consortium led by china's group, a new offer valued at $14
betty: you are watching bloomberg markets. it is time for our latest bloomberg is as flash, a look at the latest business stories in the news now. vonnie: economists are growing more -- about the u.s. economy. economists are predicting weaker growth than they were predicting late last year. corporate earnings rise of 2% in 2016, down from the forecast of 5% in november. global head of credit suisse asset management is leaving the swiss bank. he will be the co-chief investment officer at millennium management. riskal allocations and during an expansion in fixed income and commodities. the latest superhero movie had a
supersized opening around the world. then in verse, dawn of justice, 254 main dollars around the world, in line with estimates. warner bros. produced the film. bloomberg islatest this flash to they come up with the best titles. betty: let's head to the market desk where matt miller has a look at the sector for this monday morning. ton of money for emerging markets etf. $1.45 billion with what investors put into u.s. to buy emerging stocks and bonds last week. that is the fourth straight week investors have poured more than $1 billion into developing and is the longest winning streak we week inn, and 11 streak may of last year. after losses in february, dollarsn market up 2.1
so far this year into the 16. last year, stock funds collected $1.15 billion. $300 million. the emerging markets index .ctually declined 1.7% investors are betting on a rebound and we have seen so much research coming out saying emerging markets are now if i again. the biggest at was in china and hong kong where funds collected $232 million. the biggest slowdown was in india. they still added funds or india collected 121 million dollars extra. it is just in the week before that they collected 214 many dollars extra. markets etf's are very strong places to invest. thank you. very interesting. matt: we have been talking about the call spirit a lot of banks are coming out with the calls,
saying it is time to get back into emerging markets and we see investors are following the calls and it is interesting to see that. vonnie: a couple are getting a lot of warnings, like brazil and turkey is on the line. it is very interesting. brazil where you have problems and huge scandals, big losses, people are pouring money into the sector in stocks and bonds. speaking pouring money into a certain stack -- sector, real estate in 2016. us for research joins the overall state of the commercial market. ♪
news. bernie sanders wants to debate hillary clinton on her own turf. sanders is calling for a debate in new york. sanders says he is seeing momentum in the race after winning caucuses in washington state, alaska, and hawaii. it makes the delegate count a little closer. the records and is still winning. says he has nothing to do with the story alleging ted cruz had the marital affairs. the story was published in the "national enquirer." trump says his campaign was not involved. inquirer has a very good record of being nice -- being right. the supreme court has rejected an appeal by former illinois governor ron mccoy of its who is in prison on corruption charges.
term, -- he is serving a 14 year term. merrick garland is meeting with two more senators this morning. also, a meeting with senator mark kirk of illinois. puerto rico's delegates are grouping a proposed bill to resolving a debt crisis. the measure calls for a board that would hire experts to help puerto rico restructure a debt. they do not want to hand over control to a federally appointed panel. they are pushing something similar. global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists, in more than 150 news bureaus across the world. betty: bonnie, let's get caught up on the action. markets in your are closed.
they are still celebrating easter. it asian stocks were mixed -- the nikkei, up 0.7%. one big story comes out of japan. it is active investor has urged the owner of the 7-eleven stores avoiding nepotism determine the next ceo. the ceo is 83 years old and is doing with chronic health problems. daniel says he investor says he may try to name his son president of 7-eleven japan and eventually the president of the company. it the current president of 7-eleven japan should be a leading candidate for the post, but instead, he may be demoted. it he first disclosed his
investment in october. he praised prime minister to improve corporate governance bank urging better returns for investors. let's look at where we stand with u.s. stocks. dow jones up 17 points. s&p is unchanged as is the nasdaq. abigail doolittle has the latest from midtown manhattan. it is not all about the overall index. that we are stock watching that is moving higher this morning as netflix. the stock is up. its subscribing estimates for the first quarter above 1.7 million.
an analyst was out with more cautious comments, but saying those numbers could be at risk on a plant price hike. also, the possibility of an increase turnaround. tonie: you would not think look at the overall numbers, but there is a good 2%, 3% move. abigail: starbucks is another winner. it is a topic for 2016. and analyst says it is well-positioned. the really stands out, is ongoing call that the company is likely to double profits between the current fiscal year and 2019. these are not small numbers. currently bloomberg has starbucks' for two cents a share. at four see a number dollars. it will be interesting to see how that plays out.
vonnie: a tall order. thanks, abigail. betty: let's turn to the commercial real estate market. topping one chilean dollars globally. that is a 6% ride over last year. in-swerve be is the head of research. leavy is the head of research. you are always talking to real estate people. good and i would say it is good because we have strong fundamentals across five major asset types. we also see a tremendous flow of international capital coming into the united states. the firstlear here -- six weeks of this year were rocky. not just in the stock market, but there was a loss of confidence among investors coming in and people in the united states. that's the bad news. the good news.
a remarkable turnabout in sentiment and also in the cost of capital that were associated with that. ,or instance, the conduit space it was most negatively impacted , wehe negative volatility have seen spreads come back in again. they blew out and came back in. confidence is returning to the market. but are strong. with a combination, we expect a good 2016. vonnie: when you say foreign money, are you talking about money from residential projects, or leasing out commercial ventures? spencer: both. i will give you two. one category are investors looking for long-term stable yield that is why they are attracting -- that is why the are attracted to markets like new york. then there is the second category of developers who want
to build here. some of the largest landslides -- some of the largest land sites have been purchased by the japanese. or to for themselves, reset out cholesterol spencer: for both. -- for themselves, or to lease out? spencer: both. the stronger dollar is not affecting it anyway? spencer: canada had a dollar devalued by 30% last year. it you would say canada is going to slow down. did not happen. the increasing amount of capital. so did the germans, australians. the reason is simple -- but easy volatility in the world markets, the united states is a safe haven, so as london for that
matter. in the case of the canadians, they have a relatively small stock taken by, so coming here given a lot of things. the map tells you one thing. the reality on the ground is volatility. we seen the peak in commercial real estate? year laste had a peak year, but the question is, can we extend beyond that? we are expecting a very good 2016, slightly up. certainly not up by double digits. the reason is straightforward -- there is a glut of savings around the world in countries like china. that money has to go somewhere. there is a huge demand -- there is a huge demand driver. we have had a huge rally in commercial real estate. betty: spencer, you mentioned california is a pretty robust market. that are various factors effect commercial real estate, one of them is minimum wage. california is about to approve a
hike of their minimum wage to $15 eventually. what impact will that have? spencer: when you look at minimum wage, you have to look at the segments of it. we did a story on the industrial segment. we think the impacts are going as people might suggest. one, the average wage of a warehouse worker in california today is $12 and our. there is a spread between what they can pay them until they get upset average wage. the second reason is a disproportionate number of new users of industrial our e-commerce users. we had a phrase in our company -- industrial is the new retail. that is what is happening. the industrial users are the e-commerce companies. number one, they are a dense user of workers.
number two, they have to be close to the city. they had to be close to the major markets. even if wages go up, it is not like the are going to move out very quickly. vonnie: what about the deal in marriott? will they be the group that comes out on top. there is no and to the money coming from china. is this good for the united states? this, it isould say a very good sign for commercial real estate that this amount of capital is coming in from china because one of the things that happened in the last eight weeks, in addition to a loss of confidence in the market, there was a loss of confidence in the chinese investor in particular because there was concern about capital controls in china. there is a lot of anecdotal evidence saying there is capital coming from china. this is a big vote of confidence.
the last thing is that the one sector, talking about our own where we were leased bullish on, were hotels. , thank you.er leavy if you have not noticed, spring is here and you are looking out at a live picture from the white house easter egg roll. president obama, fresh from his tour in latin america, and the first lady are hosting the event on the south lawn. singing the national anthem -- featuring storytelling, live music, and of course, the easter bunny! [laughter] there is the president and first lady. where is tom keene when you need him? [laughter] the president and his wife. sunou guys brought the
♪ "bloombergs is markets" along with betty liu. westermann overturned the role of ceo effective immediately. this comes as a internet radio company makes an aggressive push for more sales in order to stay competitive with apple music and spotify. paul sweeney covers research and joins us. another case, paul, of an internet founder and entrepreneur returning to the company he started. will it work? >> it remains to be seen. it is a strange time for the
company. the company is still growing its revenue, but its user base has slowed at 81 -- 281 million users. they missed their fourth-quarter numbers and gave guidance to 2016 below what they were looking for. all of the time when there is that spector of increased competition out there computer players, like apple, amazon, out the best -- if you are an investor in pandora, you are at a crossroads. amanagement team -- management change is not what they're looking for at the moment. betty: there went to turn to their former founder? >> we have seen this before. it is a very interesting time. -- it was reported that the company may considering a sale of the company. they hired bankers. announced a very
aggressive growth strategy to more than quadrupled its revenue over the next five years, which is a huge lift and would suggest a much faster growth in the company. they have some operational challenges. sense. it makes no hopingds like they are one will happen. what is the strategy growing revenue? to they going to sell carmakers? >> the user base has stalled. down 400,000 users. that is a real problem for a subscription-driven business. they are still doing a good job selling more ads. suspicion revenue continues to grow as a get more and more users from the free service to the paid service. there is so much that that will get you. they're selling additional
products. none of which has proven -- none of which is going. it has investors concerned. the stock is down over 30% over the last 12 months. betty: right. at the end of the day, it is users that count much more than revenue. revenue matters, of course, but you want the users. who is eating into their lunch the most? we talk about quadrupling the revenue to $4 billion. that implies a lot of investment in marketing and product. if you take a look at some of the consensus out there, sales are growing, but there is no profits. at what point will the company deliver profits? you have large players, such as apple, alphabet, such as amazon looking to expand into the streaming music business. consumers are owning less of their music, itunes, and streaming it.
they are renting more of their user streaming services. that is where consumers are going with consumption of their media. spotify is there. pandora has to show the industry that they can grow the top line and a bottom line as well in the face of what could be very, very a new competitive landscape. vonnie: thank you to bill sweeney. let's move onto another story. corporate america is facing off a slew of state law that legalized discrimination of gay people in georgia. disney, and walt the nfl has been threatening to pull out of the state if it's governor signed a bill considered anti-lgbt. georgia's government vetoed that bill. airlines and dow are protesting.
54% of working americans live in a state where employers are allowed to discriminate against them based on their sexual orientation. this situation is posing a problem for companies looking to recruit and retain a more diversified workforce. inf green wrote about this "bloomberg businessweek." he joins us from detroit. jeff, you look at cornell and their experience with a wanted to institute a more all-encompassing human resource policy. that got a lot of backlash. jeff: a lot is a relative term. people pushed back. at the beginning, it is always a shock, from what i have seen, when a company who previously had not been emphasizing diversity shifts policies. this was over a calendar and adding gay pride dates for the first time. my company starts to openly
community, youay can expect to see some reaction for people who are not used to this topic in the workplace. it vonnie: it is fascinating because this reaction is public. if it was mandated and legislated, people would be less inclined in the workplace to the public about their opposition? jeff: those places in this country are not mandated. it is not a force of law. the federal government does not specifically protect people for sexual orientation at this point. so, this is not a country that has a baseline standard of sexual orientation. outside of the workplace, most companies do protect it, not all of them. most large companies to protect that specifically. betty: jeff, go more into about what just happened in georgia with the governor be telling
this legislation that went through the local process? jeff: i am a little surprised he vetoed it, but not completely surprised. the momentum is against these laws. what is happening in georgia and north carolina are not the same thing. north carolina were specifically targeting lgbt people for a specific action. in georgia, it is a playoff religious freedom. it is a question that a number of states have had. legislation was allowing them to refuse to conduct gay marriage ceremonies? jeff: it was not the gainers ceremonies, it's the business aspect people object to. there is a protection for a church cannot perform a gay marriage, but what happened after hobby lobby was allowed to object to laws, is a corporation became part of the discussion and that is what georgia
allowed, was for companies outside of government do have some of the same protections. what it was meant to do what the government makes a lot that is to -- vonnie: thank you so much, jeff green. we will -- you can read that story on "bloomberg businessweek" on the stands. you are watching "bloomberg markets." ♪
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"bloombergching markets" on bloomberg television. ♪ vonnie: we are going to take you from new york to washington in the next hour. janet speaks in new york city tomorrow. will she take her hand? hand on ae tip her ate hike? betty: can they put a puzzle and a puzzle the front runner's momentum? had a clean sweep --washington, alaska, hawaii there's anything change in his battle with hillary clinton? vonnie: and the new "batman versus superman: dawn of justice "movie.