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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  March 30, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EDT

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roline: you are watching the european close. brexit and sirens, -- concerns. betty: rx exclusive with the group executive director and how a slump and grow death global prices forcing part of india's biggest company to sell its u.k. business. is the presidency unraveling in brazil? the popularity is at record lows and is facing another cap -- coalition turning her back turning their back on her. it is 90 minutes into the
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trading session and 30 minutes away from the close in europe. let's go to julie hyman. we had breaking news out of metlife. julie: metlife one this big court case against the u.s. government. the government had does it needed metlife as systemically significant, too big to fail by the u.s. regulator. it's one of four nonbanks to be given that designation. metlife has been fighting that designation and today, they won in court for it a federal judge in washington struck down the designation which had been given by the financial stability oversight council. the reason for the ruling was sealed by the judge. you can see the shares are surging by 5% on that news. we are also watching cruise lines. carnival is out with his numbers ahead of estimates and out with
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a forecast ahead of estimates. the company says cumulative advanced bookings for the rest of the year are well ahead of the prior year at slightly higher prices. it's pulling up other cruise line operators. in general, if you look at the big stocks leading today, a lot of technology shares have been doing well. apple was upgraded. those shares are higher and microsoft is up ahead of its build conference today where it may introduce new artificial intelligence products. jpmorgan is gathering steam and the financials were down isterday in general electric selling its asset management unit to state street for as much as $485 million in cash. a lot of egg cap movers debt a lot of big cap movers. betty: how about oil? julie: it looks like that's further confirmation of the gains we have already seen in oil. it is up i 3% on the day, rising
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, reboundingt time as we get with the market is seeing as we got dovish comments from jenna yellen yesterday. contributed tog energy stocks and the perception of yellen's commentary so the three major averages are trading higher. the u.s. dollar is trading lower once again in the wake of those comments. that is helping oil prices. the dollar index is down about half of 1% on the outlook for higher rates is not coming anytime soon. betty: thank you so much. how are the european markets looking? caroline: they are gaining and we are getting a rally over many of those same themes. grr is the breakdown, the function you have to use.
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it's up 1.4%, more than 100 alien euros flooding into the stocks 600 on the back of the janet yellen comments. minors are up the best. pop andgas is getting a the fact that oil prices are doing better. even though confidence is slumping, this is the sentiment gauge. eurozone confidence index. it's slumping, down to 103. it was worse than expected by the econ us out there and it's at a 13 month low. we have not seen this and back in february last year. clearly some caution is out there even though mario draghi is doing everything he can to flood money back into stimulus. 20 billion more euros to be bought in bonds. but the was the reading
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tragic events in belgium were not factored in. hurt sentiment? keep an eye on how range bound we are. this is how we have been trading on the stocks 600 this year. for the month of march, we have managed to trade within 15 points. that is the range you are getting, very little movement if you're looking at the stocks 600 in terms of breaking the key barriers. it's not a full bull market sentiment. let's look at what is rallying. metro and anglo american are the two stocks to look out for an american is in the are inch up 13%. it is the best performance on the year up 18%. are they setting the company up to become an m&a target?
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could it be bought by a bigger year? - peer. a lot to digest. betty: a lot for the bankers there, a lot of dismukes in the retail sector in germany. let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. matt miller has more. the u.s. is preparing to beef up its military presence in eastern europe. the pentagon will announce today it is sending and armored brigade to the region next february. that is aimed at reassuring allies who are concerned about threats from russia. the airport in brussels is still closed to passenger flights. it has been out of operations and last week's terrorist attack. once the airport reopens, writing passengers will be sent to a hangar to collect their bags and the departure hall will be able to process only 1/5 of
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the normal flow of passengers. the man blame for hijacking the projection airline was in court today in cyprus. airline was in court today in cyprus. officials describe him as psychologically unstable and authorities ordered him held for eight days while they investigate and egypt is being asked in the extradited. in venezuela, the opposition controlled congress has deepened the stand up between the president. lawmakers approved an amnesty law to free dozens of job politicians and activists and maduro has vowed to block it and the opposition has several key decisions over turned. r's first him a craddick leader has been sign in. -- first democratic leader has been signed in. -- has been sworn in.
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friend of the nobel peace prize manner. winner. global news 24 hours a day parrot by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news peers around the world. betty: thank you. the u.s. jobs machine is in high gear but the private sector is adding 200,000 new jobs in march. we saw that report. all eyes turned to the much-anticipated nonfarm payroll number that comes out on friday. janet yellen highlighted a massive concern for the u.s. economy which is what happens around the world. today we learned the euro area economic confidence fell to the lowest level in more than a year. could the so-called brexit concerns be affecting this as well? jack lew spoke with charlie rose
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earlier. i have seen all kind of estimates of what it means to the reddish and european economy. timee has had a hard struggling to get to a sustainable rate of growth that anywhere near strong enough. >> and huge levels of youth unemployment. >> anything that would move that in the wrong direction would be bad for the global economy and destabilize geopolitically. caroline: let's get some perspective with tim adams, president and ceo of international finance and joins us live from washington, d.c. thank you for joining us and thank you for your time. give us your perspective on these global threats, these geopolitical risks. think -- whatu could a brexit due to the rest of the world's economy? >> thank you for having me. i think the drop-off in consumer
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confidence in his -- in europe is driven by these factors like the threat of terrorism, the event in brussels, brexit, migration and political populism. it represents true fundamentals in europe which are pretty good but not spectacular. it's these external issues, the threats and brexit which is weighing on sentiment across the continent and :00 -- and across markets globally. caroline: how much should the markets be looking at fundamentals anymore? you have been hurt last year by looking at fundamentals. everything is overwhelmed by janet yellen. >> there is a risk on risk off, we are back on risk on and janet yellen gave the green light for the doves and markets to rally. there is good fundamentals going on. we need to pay attention to those. against that actor up, there are
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sinister conditions or events we have to paych attention to and maybe markets have been underpricing until recently. you aboute got to ask the news that just broke about is metlife which winning in u.s. court over the government being designated as being systemically important. this is a very big blow to the fed and the treasury and other regulators. what's your reaction? ifmetlife is a member of the and the co join my ordered and he is a great leader of that organization. he felt he had a pretty good case and i applaud his efforts were taking it on. i think we cannot just sit idly by and passively accept these decisions without due process. to steve and metlife, they
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got a big victory. betty: they vowed that they would do this and they won in court today. do you expect this to have a spillover effect? other financial institutions -- ge isential and ge shedding its financial services unit, do you expect them to launch legal filings as well? >> ge has reinvented itself and shed most of its financial holdings and they have decided to move on. it says that any process of determining or indicating these institutions systemically important has to be well thought through an analytical and has to be transparent. i think the process will improve and it should. we will see an improvement in certain institutions, what do you think about the banking sector in general? are we expecting to see the most
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difficult first quarter in memory? how concerned are you about the future of the banking sector in the united states and in the eurozone as the ecb is trying to stimulate lending. the u.s. institutions are in better shape than the european institutions. lots of issues in europe that need to be dealt with. we see credit expansion picking up and there are efforts in italy in dealing with some of the mopl's. it's hard to make money in investment ranking. capital charges were being in that business is extraordinary and many firms are getting out of it. that industry is changing rapidly and we should end up with fewer players who are better positioned and more profitable. there are some regulatory uncertainties we need to wrap up that has been underway for six years so institutions and investors in those institutions know what the capital scripture -- structure looks like. europe, theng in
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ecb bond buying program will be expanded starting april 1. how ready are european banks for this with what some say will be a supply shock? they will be stocking up so much there will be a supply shock and how ready are the banks for that? >> there will be a supply shock. the structure marks have changed and we have already seen greater volatility and the capacity of firms to be market makers is constrained. these are good quality assets. there are somewhere between 500-700 billion euros of or print debt that they are willing to buy. -- of corporate debt they are willing to buy. it remains to be seen what will banks invest in. maybe they will start with lending into the smu sector which needs credit desperately. betty: thank you so much.
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much more ahead, tata steel is looking for its own exit and the zac it of director on what's at stake for parts of india's biggest steel plant. ♪
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caroline: live from london and new york, i am caroline hyde. betty: im am betty liu and this is the european close. caroline: we are talking about the exclusive, tata steel is showing it's not as tough as it would like to be. cheap imports and weakening prices, the indian steelmaker is
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looking to sell its entire business in britain. with the european group executive director about the decision to put their u.k. business up for sale. >> if you look at the macro situation as far as the u.k., the demand has been muted ever since the financial crisis. >> it does not look like it's going anywhere. >> these factors will likely change. the currency is volatile. it's a high cost geography. when you look at the transformation plan and the board of tata steel looked at all of this and then takes of you that this plan is not something you can support or afford. it has got capital commitments not only in the next couple of years but over long-term. how does this give you confidence that you will get somebody interested? >> it's not a question of
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confidence. it's a question of options. and implementing those options and looking the at them at the same manner that we went into the products business. the situation was similar. investorspotential with different risk profiles and different offerings that can show interest. we are progressing the transaction in the long products business. there are challenges as an any whichnt transactions needs to be stitched. we are hopeful it will finally happen. >> what is the timeframe you are working with question mark >> i would not get into the timeline. it's less than 24 hours since the board approved this approach. be in a timely manner. you must have said you will
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be hope by this time. >> as i said, give us more time to understand how we will go through the process we will have to get our advisory team on board to get an assessment done. once that happens, it will be a credible process. it needs to be. it needs to look at everything in terms of the buyer universe and what kind of buyers will be interested, etc. any other restructuring or options the board will want to evaluate. all of this will take some time. we hope we will be able to put a definite and do this in the coming weeks. >> you say you will be able to sell this off before you divest, the implications on the balance sheet, when we we see that and what is your own assessment of the positives? partthink the fundamental
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in terms of future exposure. if you want to look at the priorities of tata steel with a up,plant that needs to ramp the restructuring and other initiatives, we look at as a portfolio. bestve given more than the to turn it around and support the business. at a point in time when it becomes inherently much more absorb or what we can take, then you come to that of view. it is not a valuation exercise or evaluation game. most of the assets are impaired. one has to look at it from the future perspective and given the profile at this point in time of the u.k. business, going forward would potentially
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contain this exposure. and we would move forward in terms of our long-term agenda. this has been catalyzing a political debate in the united kingdom with david cameron looking to what he would do to potentially support the still mines. much more ahead on the news out of metlife. they won a key ruling against regulators. ♪
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betty: metlife is on the winning side of a court battle. they beat back to u.s. regulators as too big to fail and all the insurers are gaining on this news. elliott stein is a legal analyst , do we know why the judge sided with metlife? >> we don't, the
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opinion is still under seal and may be that way until the end of next week. we don't know exactly what the basis was for finding that metlife should not have been designated as a non-bank sippy. they: which is something financial authorities thought they should be. what is their recourse >> notmark epsoc designated4 banks as sifu's. metlife was the first to file a lawsuit to challenge that designation. the courts usually defer to agency rulings. it's a bit of a surprise that the court overruled the agency. betty: so they will appeal? >> met life does not want to appeal. the government may well appeal. i expect the decision of this import, part of dodd frank and too big to fail, it's important to the government so i expect they will appeal in the second quarter. betty: what happens to the plans
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of metlife and others to shed assets question mark >> i think they may revisit those plans. you may also see these other companies like prudential and aig asked the gornment revisit their designations. betty: will they have to go through a legal case? >> i don't think they would have to sue. i think they can ask the agency to revisit the designation and they would use this decision for support. the government will see -- will say let's see how the appeal plays out. betty: it's not finalized yet today but it's a big win for metlife. thank you so much. we will be back. ♪
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oh, hi! micky dolenz of the monkees here, getting ready to host the flower power cruise. (announcer) we're taking the love generation to the high seas and reliving the '60s. we'll celebrate that unbelievable era with the music that made it so special. there'll be over 40 live performances featuring eric burdon & the animals,
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micky dolenz, the monkees lead singer and cruise host, the 5th dimension, the lovin' spoonful, rare earth, spencer davis, three dog night, and many more! imagine enjoying all that great music on the fabulous celebrity summit, leaving fort lauderdale and making ports of call in jamaica and the bahamas. you'll be back in the days of bellbottoms, peace signs, and so much more, with special theme parties and 20 fun-filled celebrity interactive events. cabins are filling up fast, so come on, relive the era you remember so well. the flower power cruise, february 27th, 2017. let your freak flag fly. don't miss the grooviest trip at sea. caroline: live from london and new york, you are watching the european close. stocks are finishing up the day in europe.
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let's look at how the market participated in the yellen rally. at 1.3%ull steam ahead and miners led the charge. they are up 4.5%. anglo american is up 12 percentage points. we hear potential it the chief executive for the potential for m&a saying that they are strategically placing themselves in position to be bought out. metro could be looking to sell of its electronics unit. ix has been trading down 3%. dollar weakness today. may push the rate
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hike all the way back to november. italian government bond yields are down two basis points and money has been pouring in because in april, the ecb will start their bond buying to the tune of 20 billion euros. stoxx 600 is down despite the february low so what will be the next catalyst? our next guest says it's mostly earnings as caution remains over geopolitical issues, oil, and central banks. patrick spencer joins us now. thank you very much for joining us. give us a sense of what you're focused on. you have been on the market a long time to give us a sense of what is currently happening in terms of european sentiment. we are range bound at the moment. confidence?out
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>> i think sentiment is quite that if you look at the majority of forecasts for europe. most of them look for the flat earnings picture. that does not provide any excitement. what people forget is what mario draghi just did. it's a bazooka. as you saw tarp in the u.s., you will see a similar amount in europe and money supply had been flatlining because that -- there is no demand of loans in europe. but tarp targeted rings like the high-yield oil area where we have seen yields coming in. the money supply would tarp drew about 6-7% which was not huge but at least it got the capital moving. that's what you need to see. willnk mario draghi mark 2 help and it's all about confidence.
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a lot of the companies are quite disciplined about the cost. caterpillar in the state recently took down first-quarter guidance. it will be interesting with second quarter earnings with alcoa. and tookar came out its earnings guidance down on the stock has recovered so that tells me that a lot of these companies are being seen and it's not about recession, it's about growth which is slow. caroline: and an environment where the ecb is doing everything it can to support lending and the united states is starting to bring back stimulus but yellen janet is not willing to disrupt global growth. which industry groups do we invest in? >> and arising interest-rate environment, although that has been put in -- on hold, it's the value stocks that come out first. they are the first out of the blocks we have seen that with oil and material stocks and some of the financials.
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because of worries about negative interest rates, the banks of been under pressure recently. have --ugh financials not financials, health care has been under pressure. wstill like health care very much. we still like tech and we like consumer discretionary. there are questions around that because of the strength of the consumer which we believe is still quite strong. those of be the three areas we particularly like in the u.s. betty: let's dig in deeper into the idea of what will move markets not just in europe but also here in the u.s. i am curious to hear more about earnings being a big driver for the market, it's hard to see thiswhen it looks as if rally we have had, the u.s. has been driven mostly by the macro factor or the idea of the fed continuing to be supportive of asset prices. >> that's a fair point but you
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have to remember that this rally started when the fed was talking about for rate increases. there was worry about a recession in february but the oil market and the equity market and the dollar have all rolled over. firstenvironment where we saw at the beginning of the year were interest rates were rising, now everybody is putting this recent rise in the market down to the fed. oil, and thethe fed have acted prior to this and they were looking for higher rates. getting back to simple principles, it's very rare that the s&p equity market yields more than the bond market. i looked all the way back to 1930. there has only been five occasions where the equity market, the s&p has yielded more than the tenure bond yield. at the moment, i think the 10 year bond yield in the u.s. is 1.85% and the s&p equity yield is 2.25%.
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that is extremely rare. in the majority of cases apart from one in 1929, the market was up 30% later. the hunt for yield is on. i think that will drive money into the market anyway. caroline: what about the hunt for m&a and cash? thiscompanies start t action? are there opportunities with the laggards putting themselves up for sale? >> yes, especially in the commodity area. they first cut costs and then the 300ly and then pound gorilla starts to take off. that process is darwinian and happens all the time. it's happening again. lower and longer interest rates mean private equity can raise financing more cheaply.
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our of the deals that we do getting done. the financing is still available. if you look at what has happened to the high-yield market, you look at the high-yield oil bond market just in a few weeks and that creates huge opportunities. all of these capital flows coming back. it's all about confidence. it's coming. we are getting back to normal. it's slow. i get a little frustrated when everybody beats up on the fed and the ecb. back in 2009, they were talking about atm machines and running out of cash. we don't have a blueprint for this. they can fight inflation but not deflation. they are feeling their way through. some fiscal
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responsibility and that will come. the central banks can do what we weret but recently, talking about the crossrail. these projects are coming. with brexit out of the way, it needs it and maybe god for bid if donald trump is the right person and maybe that infrastructure needs to get moving. a wall?: >> a wall of infrastructure. trump, unlike this country, he has the congress around him and there is a safety net in the u.s. where there is not here. caroline: it's great having you on an thank you. -- and enqueue. time for government to step up to the plate.
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patrick spencer, thank you. betty: european markets are done for the day. u.s. markets are still open and at work and trading. hovering near our highs of the session but not quite where we were about an hour ago. abigail doolittle has more from the nasdaq ar. >> the nasdaq has periods ganz and netflix shares are dragging. it's not entirely clear why. it could be the news late yesterday that the fcc is saying that netflix is filing with the regulators should be looked at for potential while asians of misrepresentation after netflix addict used internet providers of slowing videos but the fcc says netflix may have done this themselves. it will be interesting to how it plays out and shares are still down more than 10%. it put in a bearish death cross
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which tells us the sellers are lurking and there could be some sideways to downside volatility ahead. betty: what about lulu lemon gainingaining? beat and wasy driven by a strong holiday season and is up despite getting a somewhat mixed forecast. says he believes the first quarter outlook will prove to be conservative and shares should be bought. it's worth noting that there is a high bearish short interest on lulu lemon of 21%. some of this pop could be some of those shorts covering. betty: thank you so much. let's check in on the first board news. u.k., a house of lords panel has a message for british prime minister david cameron. playing on voters fears will not be enough if he wants the u.k. to stay on european union and
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the panel says he should present a positive vision of the eu area -- they say to make a case that staying in the unit would be good work people of all income brackets. french president france for plan afterrevoking a the attacks in paris. is stemming by a commitment to take and 7000 refugees but they have to be checked for security reasons. they have to be willing to settle in poland. after the terrorist attacks in brussels, the polish prime ministers said there was no possibility of accepting any refugees. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bears around the world. theline: we will be seeing battle of the charts up next. i am taking on julie hyman over volatility.
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we will look at why it's building up in europe compared to the united states. ♪
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betty: it is time for our global battle of the charts were we look at some of the most telling charts of the day with a mean for investors. you can access these charts on the bloomberg by running the function on the bottom of your screen. julie hyman is kicking things off. at thei am looking collapse in volatility in the united states as of late. -- been very exciting in terms of volatility. in the white line, this is the key vix etn and it seeks to
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mimic by double the performance of the vix in the united states. a record low and was created back in 2010. the yellow line is the s&p 500 which has rebounded as volatility goes down. but the green is shares outstanding. in other words, as we have seen volatility lines and we saw stacks rebound in the s&p 500 is higher, the hedging in this underlying tvix has surged an enormous amount. that's because people are nervous. they are hedging against the idea that volatility is not going to stay down and perhaps it may rise of the same rate so this is reflected in the shares outstanding. one catalyst we have been looking for is earnings season.
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we will start to get earnings in earnest over the next couple of weeks and there is not a lot of optimism especially after he got that corporate profits number in the fourth quarter gd report -- gdp report showing a decline. betty: we are in a honeymoon after yellen and we will see what happens when earnings season starts april 11. caroline is looking at volatility and europe. caroline: it's like we are channeling each other. i am looking at how much more worried we are in europe versus the united states. the vou are paying on index versus the costliness in the united states. v stocks versus vicks and it's far on the -- former costly on the v stocks at a ratio of 1.8. it's getting or more to hedge yourself in europe versus u.s.
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shares. it's the most costly since august since we saw the blowup in china. amid the devaluation. all of this happens as we start to see range bound trading on the euro stocks 50 and that has stalled in the pickup of the rally we have seen and we are heading that flat note. we cannot get above some of the key areas. we are starting to get nervous in europe, more nervous, and with a costly hedging, you can check out this chart on the bloomberg. betty: so nervous seems to be the word to describe both of your charts today. i have to declare a winner. winnerdeclare julie the for no other reason then today is the winner. there is no rhyme or reason. caroline it will be your turn tomorrow.
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i don't want to make any enemies here. about thell you latest split by metro that has shares soaring. we will be back. ♪
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betty: live from new york and london. caroline: you are watching the european close in time for our bloomberg is nice flash. in new york, victory for general motors. damages were refused to be awarded in a faulty ignition switch case. aimed at settling hundreds of similar lawsuits in gm has recalled more than 30 million vehicles. economic confidence in the european area has fallen to its lowest level in 13 months
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according to the european mission. the report comes as the european bank is going to run a bond buying program to spark growth. the all american beer maker budweiser has found an unlikely source of growth. the king of beers is growing sales at double digits in russia despite the 30% drop in brewing out but since 2008. budweiser is pictured as a premium brand in russia while it is a cheaper alternative in the u.s. that's the latest business flash. budweiserhave thought had cheap beer? betty: metro ag is planning to split into separating its food and consumer electronics businesses. caroline: shareholders found the news appetizing. the stock jumped over 10%. will this add more value to
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their shopping cart? let's ask paul jarvis who wrote the story. congratulations on the story and give us a sense of why it's going to on lock company value? , in four years of transformation, the ceo has done a number of things like selling assets and basically putting the company on a different path to what was on before. this is a combination of his work. what they want to do is a lot of m&a. he described what they are doing as an m&a currency. both stocks will be vehicles for m&a. the target or the acquirer? >> they would say the purchaser. they will be looking for targets across europe but no doubt, this
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could put metro into play in different parts. you look at all the business they have and potentially those businesses have got prospective interest. business sets in across europe, that is likely to have a number of attentional suitors. they tried to bid for argos and have made no secret of their intention to take over the world of retail. it will be something that will be very attractive. you look at the company's and he also would have a potential interest. there is definitely potential for that company and all the other businesses within to be potential m&a targets. caroline: the share price leapt
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some 12% today. metro has set itself apart. on the impeachment for the brazilian president, the country's largest political db threaten to leave the coalition and the news could be devastating for the president. the split could motivate other parties to follow suit. pauloturn to the sao bureau chief. how important was this particular party for the president? pmdb is the largest party of brazil and has been part of coalitions 1985. this is a big problem for the president. the heads of both houses of congress are from pmdb. tell us about her approval rating and whether that tips the scale for her
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impeachment. -- we seem to have hit a bottom in her approval rating. the number ofn people think her government is ind is at 10% compared to 9% december. we have hit a very low bottom. we are looking to the other parties to assess how likely it is she will be impeach in the next two months. happen,f that were to what would happen? if she were impeached, how would it work. >>? if the impeachment process going on the lower house passes to the senate and is approved, her vice president takes over. pmdb and president of the news is that he has been moving the pieces around to see what his government would look like, consulting economist to
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come up with an economic plan to get brazil going again. betty: thank you so much. give us one last look at how european markets ended. caroline: it is a green day with help from across the atlantic, janet yellen fostered the demand for equities so there were gains thehe stoxx 600 with minor's leading the charge and oil and gas companies. tomorrow, i hope i win the battle of the charts. i am smarting from earlier but it has been a joy and we will see if we have another set of gains tomorrow. ♪
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alyx: it is noon in new york, 5:00 p.m. in london. welcome to bloomberg markets.
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from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good afternoon. here is what we are watching at this hour. stocks jumping around the world on yellen's signal that rates will stay lower for longer. .rasing losses for the year emerging market currencies headed for its best month in a most a decade. .il on a steady rise a small than expected increase in crude inventories. a tightening crude market -- what a tightening crude market could mean for investors. i sat down with tom ward to remember competing against the late check chesapeake ceo. more from my exclusive interview this hour. for more on today's activity let's head to the markets desk. julie hyman is looking at the leaders. we keep labeling it a huge risk on rallies. julie: i


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