welcome to "countdown." i'm anna edwards. lots of data to catch you up on. manufacturing was stronger than expected, it's jobs day, of course, in the united states. revenue falling 16.3%, it was estimated to fall by 15.5%. more of a fall in revenues in that important barometer some say of chinese consumer habits. aside from all of that, it appears to be the sentiments of the large corporates where the economy is right now. the lowest reading since the middle of 2013, basically the indicator about business conditions among large enterprises in the manufacturing sector issued by the bank in japan and in trouble perhaps. this is having ripple impacts on the classes.
over in japan, the nikkei down by quite a considerable margin, by more than 3%, down for its fourth day. it's spreading across asia. more broadly, let's look at the wrisk assets. the yen having in big e-moves, ronger against the dahl, the pound. the dollar heading for its work week in two months. continuing to retreat on concerns about the level of stockpiles in the united states and concerns of oil being below level. a barrel >> china is showing improving conditions for the first time in eight months, the
manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 50.2 in march ahead of an immediate estimate. the government's fiscal and monetary stimulus is kicking in. meanwhile sentiment among japan's large manufacturers has dropped to the lowest level since mid 2013. stronger yen risks eroding in ts undermining efforts the economy. declining from 12 three months ago and economists had forecast eight in a bloomberg survey. we got nonform payrolls out of the u.s. later. ployers added 2005 jobs in a low. ing at charles evans says the employment situation is
healthy, inflation means there should be continued caution. >> we are looking at an economy that is close to fulfilling its maximum mandate. unemployment is below 5%. that's a very good outcome compared to where he were 10% r the baseball chance of troip -- that's the reason why i think continued caution is called for, we need to have confidence to get inflation up 2%. >> the u.k. economy will shed workers and gain efficiency with the higher median wage, they are pulling up the bail level and hour, the biggest increase in eight hours.
hip-hop mowing yul jee jay-z is unhappy for his latest purchase. -- jay-z has touted the service as artists respond to spotify and apple. it trailed its rival with 3 inch users. they deny the claim saying their conducted due dell general general before they acted out top sit. in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. anna. anna: the last trading day in asia, heidi, it seems that we have had some better than expected datio out of china, things to have captured the markets imagination in today's
session? >> anna, we're very much risk off again. no doubt about it, we had a really vong month which turns of a rst quarter, a bit nightmare into a strong corner. judging by this day, we're not looking that great. t is a sea of red out there. even the hong kong tending to best reactive to the numbers. the s&p down grade to it's credit outlook for china coming through late yesterday and weighing on sent meant as well. really seeing the steep losses. we're down to 3.6 of 100%.
as you alluded to earlier, looking at the outlook. elsewhere, a lot of weakness coming through from jerry as well. there were declines in oil and a number of mining and resource stocks doing badly today after some strong gains in the last couple of sessions. again, the oil majors that are weighing on sent president here. the jobs determine will determine whether this kind of risk will start the quarter will return. medics company very favored by mainland cheans tourists, plugging the most in 17 years, down 21% in february, usually ai very busy months in items of -- storms terms.
home buyers as we have been talking about and prices in china in the big cities have went to 60% over the past 12 months. anna. >> thank you very much. let's get more on the unexpected jump in china's gauge last month. malcolm scott, good to see you on the program. finally a sign that the stimulus measures are kicking in, or too early to say. >> the property rebound that heidi just mentioned seems to be a factor, that's a huge part of the economy, it relies on everything from cement, skill, and glass, that should be helping ating with and croot the provider, there was heavy
begins, putting it back into the area that signature stalls expansion for the first time in joith as. legislators the came through and said they will spend more money, the 23iss cal deficit is 3%. the manager towards say they still have room to act, put that together and manufacturing seems to be coming out of the oldrums for now. etc. bring in bob parker into the conversation. good morning. >> good morning. >> echoing what we were huge from malcolm there, this is friday morning excitement is made of, perhaps, it's the small uptake we have seen in
the p.r.i.s. something to smile about? >> smile a little bit. i think the point to emphasize is the service sector in china remains very strong and you see that from the nonmanufacturing lows could to 54. the outlook is a continued strength in the service sector. we're now just above 50, people are interpreting it and it's better than expectations. i think it's consist with chinese growth this year coming out at 6.5%. i don't think the manufacturing ctor is out of the woods completely. the coal mining sector, the hofe old industries, but the economies is continued to be
iven by strong services, intrastructure spending. i reiterate that the probability of a hard landing is continue to be very low. he referenced in the chinese economy is going to be going, like it. or -- more not happening as previously expected. the timing and i've got the west pacquiao at cheabs consumer that you like to look at. there has been a bit of a bounce, you have been nervous about it. >> on the consumer sector, someone has to make a very clear distinction. it's a wild statistic, you mention the numbers. you make a distinction between high end spending which has
suffered from the last year o-two with the anti-corruption campaign. that is ongoing. i would argue that has shown up numbers.a -- the retail spending numbers over the coming months will probably be plus or minus 10%. we're not going back to the days where conjunction was if we had this conversation three years ago, they were up 15%. we're not going back to that. but mid market consumption remains very robust. >> over inside the, when you look the risk sensitive assets, not really going along with this stronger than expected data out of china. the japanese market, more
than i cup, does it make sense to you? >> for a number of reasons. it is difficult to find any evidence of any strength out of the economy. if you look at retail spending in japan, it is weak. i think that deflate fears remain a problem. there is also a concern that -- r the move by negative one was has to ask question what more can it do and will it do more. where are the growth boosters for the japanese economy. they aren't concerned there aren't any growth boosters, export numbers not great and we ave seen with the yen close to 111, 112.
>> big companies in japan cutting back. here is a quick look at the day ahead. there is a slew of european date. we'll turn to europe, 45 minutes later, the eurozone as a whole and then the u.k.'s turn to file its performance. the big number of the united what , and that's exactly we're going to be talking about next, how many jobs did america add in march and what is the story with wage growth. that is coming up in a couple of minutes. ♪ ♪ .
anna: welcome back, 1:17 in the afternoon if you're walking in hong kong. ings are murky, the markets, 6:17 in the morning here if london. the bloomberg business flash. >> walking away from the proposed takeover of starwood hotel. it clears the way for a purchase by marriott. they cited various market considerations for pulling its $14 million bid. shareholders are scheduled to vote on the offer next friday. esla c.e.o. has unveiled the x.l. 3. able electron he is dan and it's part of the
company's master plan and there is a need to move into high volume production. apple has reshuffled its supply chain ahead of the release of its new iphone 7. the move is a boon to a dutch company while it searches for a new buyer. the expanded bond buying program today and it's pushing toward a record. in the single currency this month, shy from an all-time euros $48.5 billion next month. control of the mining operations in the country, according to people with acknowledge of the matter, the investor group plans to bid for
about 80% of the local operating company over the next week at the earliest. that's your bloomberg business flash, anna. anna: thank you very much. the jobs report of the u.s. later and the number of jobs created is important, many investors will keep a close eye on it. more from new york. >> u.s. investors are closely waiting for the jobs data to be released in the friday morning wall street session, 205,000 is the number of jobs u.s. economies are expected to have created during the month of march. at is based on a survey of economists. that will be consistent with a strong labor market and it would also be a slight decline from the 242,000 jobs created back in february. while it is in decline. some moderation is expected as the u.s. guess back to full employment.
what is steady is the u.s. inemployment rate, 4.9% in february, along with job growth, they focused on wage growth, average hourly earnings climbs said to have 2.5%. analysts have been anxious for a pickup in wage growth, that would lead to an insight in inflation which has been trailing the fed's goal for the past three years. big focus on friday, is it because it will give a lot of clues in the strength of the has economy as the federal indicated taking a more gradual approach in raising interest rates. anna: charles evans said while the u.s. employment situation is healthy, low inflation means there should be continued
caution. charles: we are looking at a economy that is close to filling its mandate. at 2 good outcome than understand for the basic measure of unemployment. payroll growth has been strong for the last two years, that's good. reality is low and that's the reason why continued caution is calls for. we need confidence to have inflation up to 2%. anna: speaking with bill dudley talking about the status of the country and economy. >> it's too soon to claim success. the u.s. economy is in relatively good shape tired to other continues. we have made consider probable to our employ and employment objectives. it's been shown to be
effective. na: paul is -- bob parker is with us. bob, 5,000 is the estimate, it could be wages that are in the spotlight. how do you says the strength at the paying story in the u.s.? >> it's very interesting. over the last year, we have seen the significant trend decline in unemployment and i stick to the view that by the middle of this year, the unemployment number could be as low as 4.6%. the thing that is terror interesting, that decline in headline unemployment has not been met by a significant jump in wages. although the trend over the last year is heading in the right direction in the sense
that, we go back one year, it was less than two parents. what has happened is a significant lag between unemployment and wage growth, a whole series of numbers behind it. one factory is underemployed, another is people outside the labor force five years and rickling back into the labor is throw. in terms of the next few months, we will probably see some edging up in wage growth. if you go back to your graph, 2.2% at the moment. where are we going to be in july, i would assume 2.5%. if -- the inflation is 2.2%. by midair, 2.5%, headline inflation which only a few months ago was close to zero
because of the commodity price effect. t means a headline creeping up between 1 1/2 to 2% by the third quarter of this year. i think the big theme is that yes, wages is roaming up, the whole process is throw. nna: a bit of link between those different metrics. janet yellen expressing concern that the core inflation number were particularly sustainable. there is some sustainable movement there. >> if you buy the argument that by july, then the core inflation number probably
tabilizes close to 2 1/2%. janet yellen is right, it won't be going up dramatically. i think that we may be having that conversation next year, certainly not today. >> i continue to think the federal rates go up. i think they'll race rates in june. by the end of the year, a fed returned's rate 1%, a treasury 3%. around 2 or wait 5.4% of a wake high. on the program, it is 6:26 in london, the mass market with
anna: welcome back. this is "countdown." let's get the bloomberg first word news. >> thank you. china's manufacturing gauge has jumped, showing improving conditions for the first time in eight months. the purchasing managers index rose to 50.2 in march ahead of a median estimate of 49.4 it suggests the government fiscal and monetary stimulus is kicking in. sentiment among japan's manufacturers has dropped to the lowest level since mid-2013 as the stronger yen risks eroding company profits.
the index of confidence among large manufacturers declining from 12 three months ago. economists had forecast eight in a bloomberg survey. we get nonfarm payrolls out of the u.s. later. employers probably added around 200-5000 jobs in march with the jobless rate holding at an eight-year low. shed.k. economy will workers and gain efficiency with today's arrival of a higher minimum wage. david cameron's government is pushing up the base level of pay 72 sevenpounds pounds 20 an hour. mogul is unhappy with his recent music streaming purchase. he's seeking compensation from the previous owners of tidal.
jay-z has touted the service as artists' response to disqualify l trails itsut tida rivals with only about 3 million users. the company denies jay-z's claim. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . anna: thank you very much. let's check on the markets now. nejra cehic has the details. not so much cheer in the asian markets. nejra: i've got the msci asia-pacific and tex on the chart. asian stocks headed for their biggest loss in weeks, after a seven-week rally. i want to take a look at the wildest water for asian equities since 2011. it was the worst start to the year on record.
stocks prettyan much recover from those losses, but some say the rally has run its course. you can see that drop today. looking at chinese stocks, we got that surprise jump in the chinese manufacturing pmi, all in50 for the first time months. s&p also cut its credit rating outlook on the country and we are seeing chinese shares fall today. chinese shares trading in hong kong. the china enterprises index falling after it entered a bull market yesterday. we are not seeing much positive sentiment in chinese stocks. looking at japan, as you mentioned, that drop in the index showing that corporate sentiment has slumped near a three-year low. we've seen the yen rise after that, the best-performing d10 currency versus the dollar
today. stocks dropping for a fourth day in tokyo looking at the topix index, headed for its biggest loss in seven weeks. finally, looking ahead to u.s. jobs data. let's look at the dollar and treasuries. the dollar headed for its biggest weekly decline in almost two months. seeing treasury yields rising. i've tracked the 10-year yield here, with the treasury rally fading. bloomberg surveyed some economists. they see yield will rise by year-end, but the biggest money managers are split on the outlook for the dollar. blackrock saying there's room for the color to rise, while russell investments group is calling an end to the dollar bull. i'll leave you with that. with nejra cehic of their a few things to watch on the markets. msci emerging markets, weakest
day, down by 1.3%. the for that, we had some strength. behind the best gains, could there be some ominous sign's that the rally is about to hit a woman? -- i got to is here hit a wall. manus cranny is here. manus: correlation between oil and emerging markets. the bottom of your chart, rising correlation from 2013. 2016, theg to trajectory rises. we had a correlation between oil and emerging markets. this is how the e.m. currencies and the equities really have seen a rally. the correlation is the bottom one in green. what you've got is the title of msci, 22% from a seven-year low. local bonds have rally by 8.3%.
the most since 2009. is it ill-founded? take a look at this. these are the volumes and this is what everybody is saying. price,fed, rising oil now what you've got here is the volumesllying 22% on well below the average. 44 billion shares during advances in the past five years. this rally is not built on substantial volume. bob: let's break it down market by market. we've had year to near 20% rally in the brazilian equity market. that is based on political potential for change. i'm concerned that that market which was very cheap at the beginning of the year is now tending towards being nearly expensive.
a lot of the potential for political change in brazil is discounted in the market. point number one is that i would not chase this rally in the brazilian market. if we look at the russian market, if you buy the argument that brent stabilizes at $40 a barrel, the russian ruble was very oversold. sanctions i think will be removed, but they could easily be eased over the rest of this year. i think stillrket has potential for upside. china, the shanghai composite, has stabilized at 3000. the bubble burst last year. we went down to 2500. the economic data is looking better. having said that, i think the shanghai composite, the upside is 3200, 3300. downside is probably 2600. indian market, all the data looks great. indian economic growth is
probably going to come out close to 7.3%. there is a problem. the market is one of the more expensive emerging markets in the world. you've got a russian price-earnings ratio of around five. you've got an indian ratio of around 16. anna: bob, thank you. manus, thank you. manus will be back with "on the move." the ecb unleashes its expanded buying program today. that has expelled corporate issuance to a new record. jeanna smialek joins us now from frankfurt. let's talk a little about the expansion of this ecb bond purchase program. we don't see them buying corporate bonds yet. they are spending more on the other type of bonds they are buying. exactly. this month, we see extension to 80 billion from 60 million,
which is where it has been up to this point. it is a pretty substantial move up. just how big is the 80 million relative to the program? it is a 20 million increase compared to what they were doing before. what does it mean for the overall size of quantitative easing? do investors see it as a substantial leg up? jeanna: the important thing to keep in mind is it is also 80 million for an extended time. we've had 13 months so far of 60 million. now we are looking toward, assuming nothing changes, another 12 months of 80 billion. it will take the program to something like 1.74 trillion. anna: we are getting the pmi numbers from the eurozone later on. will that be comfort for mario draghi that what he's doing is working or more of a headache? is an openctly, it
question because we don't know the numbers. pmi will give us some sort of signal about manufacturing in the eurozone. it will give us a signal to what is happening with prices in some of the day countries like germany. it is going to be all eyes on those numbers. anna: thank you very much. jeanna smialek joining us from frankfurt with a look at what we can expect out of europe today. bob parker still with us. we get the expansion of the bond buying program, at least the size of the old program goes up today, but we don't get the corporate bond buying just yet. what is the most crucial for you? bob: i actually think it is the expansion of qe, that move from 60 million to 80 million, and the expansion of the asset classes they are going to be mine. we've got a number of problems. if you are a european insurance company or pension fund,
generating investment returns in a market where today we actually ,ave 14 european bond markets not eurozone, european bond markets, where we have 10-year bond yields around 15 basis points, and probably likely to stay there for the rest of this year, generating investment returns for institutional investors in europe is extremely difficult. whether it is pension funds, insurance companies, it is not surprising that there is this diversification into other asset classes. most notably, illiquid asset classes such as infrastructure, equity, where capital requirements are less. i that shift out of liquid markets into less liquid markets is very much a sustainable move. yields go how low do
in the corporate bond environment as a result of what the ecb is doing? ofve got such low levels financing costs for some of europe's corporate's. we got european corporate bond issuance moving toward a record. bob: borrowing costs are exceptionally cheap and are going to stay exceptionally cheap. 10-year bond yields i think will stay for most of this year less than 20 basis points. if you look at eurozone investment-grade spreads, i think we could trade down to 50 basis points. relative to lawns, we are talking of 10-year borrowing costs for top-quality investment-grade european corporate of less than 1%. the bottom line is, it is very easy for me to go out and borrow money and i can do it very cheaply, but what am i going to do with that money? european corporates today are very liquid. int we need is a kickstart
demand. we are seeing some positive signs in germany, with a pick up in consumption. one feature of the german economy was still reasonably weak consumption. the recent data in february and march shows the start, which i think will continue, of a pickup in consumption. anna: we will look out for what the pmi says about consumption. some companies getting closer to borrowing for free. quite phenomenal development. negative rates, that is the kind of thing they do. 6:43 in london. bob corker was with us the last 45 minutes. thanks to him. could the potential for a brexit put london's property market on shaky ground? we speak to the ceo of a residential property development, next. ♪
6:46 in london, 1:46 in the morning in new york. the futures over in new york suggesting we will be weaker at the start of european equity trade. that seems to be the case for europe as well. as we get closer, we will have more of an idea. let's get the bloomberg business flash. anbang has walked away from its potential takeover of starwood hotels. the moves counter a proposal by marriott. they cited market conditions for pulling the data. starwood shareholders are scheduled to vote on marriott's offer next friday. indonesian consortium is said to be preparing to offer about $2 billion for control of mining operations in the country.
bidinvestor group plans to for about 80% of the local operating company over the next week at the earliest. some major music stars calling on the u.s. government to crack down on youtube and other video upload sites. katy perry, billy joel, and rod stewart are among the artists and managers who have filed a petition to amend parts of the digital millennium copyright act. they say the law shields services such as youtube from liability when users upload withoutted ter material permission. that's your bloomberg business flash. anna: thanks very much. teslas ceo has unveiled a new model 3, the more affordable electric sedan. it will cost $35,000. joining us now from the launch
event in california is bloomberg's dana hull. good to have you on the program. why is the model three so important? dana: this has always been part of tesla's master plan, to make a high-volume, more affordable electric car. they unveiled it and the response has been phenomenal. people put32,000 down $1000 reservations today. there's already more demand on this car than the number of cars tesla has made to date. anna: that sounds like fairly sizable demand. how important is it that they prove they've got a battery range that the mass market will buy into? said the model three will have a minimum range of 215 miles per charge. i think that is exceeding what is expected. with battery improvements being continual, it is quite possible
that tesla could offer the model with different battery packs. anna: i suppose the problem for tesla is that in the meantime, while they've been moving into the mass market, some mass-market producers have been trying to move into tesla's turf . do they feel the competition? dana: tesla has said they welcome the competition because they want people to switch to electric transport. i think that what we've seen tonight, based on the lines of people waiting in stores around the world, is that this is tesla's iphone moment. people lined up sight unseen to reserve a car they've never seen. i think you are going to see the reservation number climb. anna: interesting to see how demand stands up when we see some of the tax credits that are associated with electric vehicles being phased out. dana: that's true.
$35,000 is still steep for many people. people were standing in line in part because they want to take advantage of credits that are set to expire. some reservations will be canceled, but more will come in. i think it is a pretty interesting metric. we will get a full sense of a next week or so. anna: dana hull, joining us with the latest on that tesla new launch. let's switch gears. prices for properties in london's wealthiest areas have 2014 peakce there according to the estate agency. is brexit a further threat to investments? for more, let's bring in the ceo of the u.k. luxury property developer, niccolo barattieri di san pietro. great to see you this morning. how much can prime central london home values, how can they
withstand the various headwinds being thrown at them? this is not the first time for this headwind in luxury real estate. you've had 20 years of a bull market. to have a pause is normal. anna: a pause or a fall in prices? niccolo: london real estate high-end has more than doubled in the last six years. a fall is a stabilization in my books. anna: is that what you expect to see? niccolo: i expect to see stabilization for a number of years. one has to also see that it is not only when you see the headline number of -6% that every single property is down 6%. anna: the average can hide a lot. tell me about who is buying at the luxury end. when the oil price started to fall, lots of people said the russians and those wealthy buyers from the middle east won't come to london to buy property anymore. others said they will because it
will be safer than other assets. which was true? niccolo: i think it's a bit of both. london real estate high-end is really a lifestyle play. it is a long-term play. you have different categories that come and go. the russians now are slightly less present than they were before, but the middle easterners are strong at the moment. he will still have to see the currency movement. the pound is substantially weaker against the dollar. it makes it look much more favorable. anna: so if we do see weakness in prices, what puts a floor under them? niccolo: it goes back to product. you have to deliver the best product. developments, two apartments out of 72 in 11.5 months. anna: what about the new rules on second homes? is that having an impact on some
areas of the luxury london market? if you are increasing stamp duty, it does have a dampener. you are seeing clients asking slightly larger discounts. however, it goes to the product you are delivering and how good it is. then you've got to compare it internationally as well. it is london compared to new york, singapore, and hong kong. we are becoming much more in line to the other places. anna: far there too many luxury homes under construction? niccolo: there are quite a fuel under construction. how many will be delivered is another story. only the best developers will be able to deliver the homes they say they are delivering. anna: where are the hot parts of london and where are the parts of london that you won't go? niccolo: we are extremely bullish on the area of seen james park and victoria. we've got to developments there.
it is not by chance that we have two large developments 500 feet apart. anna: what about brexit? do you have conversations with clients who express this as a concern? do people worry about how that is going to impact what they are buying? niccolo: it does worry. if you look at what the high-end real estate market is based upon, it is a lifestyle. it is a favorable taxation system. it is about stability. with brexit, you have potential instability. it is a worry. anna: if you had to forecast the long-term effects, do you think it will make wealthy russians and middle eastern buyers more or less likely to buy in london? i think there would be a short-term pause, but at the end, do they want to the present in london? is this a great place to be?
it is not only the apartment we sell, but london. anna: is anybody putting brexit clauses into their deals? haven't seen one? have you heard? niccolo: i have. anna: do you think they will gain momentum? niccolo: i find very interesting that the brexit camp is very local. they are shouting from the rooftops on why we should be leaving the eu. the other side is not saying anything at all. there is a bit of complacency. they have so many arguments they could do, even at the basic level. anna: you want us to stay in then. niccolo: absolutely. anna: niccolo barattieri dissent pietro joining us from north aker. 6:56 here in london. up next, jobs day friday in the u.s. day. how many jobs did america had in march? 200-5000 is the estimate.
anna: bouncing back, china's official factory gauge jumps, suggesting the government fiscal stimulus could be kicking in. haveese equities we can sentiments along large manufacturers drop to the lowest level since mid-2013. jobs day usa. how will today's figures influence the fed's thinking? and tesla unveils its new, more affordable model. a warm welcome to "countdown."
i'm anna edwards. it is just a 7:00 in london. let's look at where futures are showing. the last of the week, this being a friday, so it looks as if we will be weaker at the start of european equity trade. that won't be a surprise to anyone following the asia overnight action. we had better than expected data out of china in the form of manufacturing pmi. but on the downside, we had yesterday's s&p downgrade to the outlook to china. that seems to be taking the edge off. we had the sentiment indicator among large corporate in japan. that seems to be winning out. we see real weakness in the japanese sector. we are considerably weaker on those japanese assets. down 3% on the nikkei and the topix. 2.3% thispacific down
hour. let's have a look at what is happening on the currency's and the commodities space. dollar-yen at 112.25. risk aversion filtering through into the currency markets. we got the best move -- the biggest moves coming through in the yen. stronger versus the dollar, the pound, and the euro. oil, further away from that $40 mark at 37.9. we are getting breaking news from sainsbury's. let's check in on what is happening with that u.k. retailer. been trying to do a deal for home retail. sainsbury's recommending the offer for retail home group, theimously recommending purchase. home retail directors unanimously recommending the purchase. that is the key thing that matters here, whether the company that is being bought in favor of this. 55 pence ins to get
cash, a special dividend in the original announcement. won't be paid according to this latest news. the offer represents an indicative value of 143.7 pence per share. remember that we had a bidding battle taking place at one point for home retail. we saw arrivals moving away from the table, so we will see how that one moves at the open, how we see scenes varies. indicative value+++
let's get the bloomberg first word news. kumutha: china's official factory gauge has unexpectedly jumped, showing improving conditions for the first time in eight months. the manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 50.2 in march. it suggested governments fiscal and monetary stimulus is kicking in. sentiment among japan's large manufacturers has dropped to the lowest level since mid-2013. a stronger yen risks eroding company profits, undermining a recovery in the world's third largest economy. the index of confidence among large manufacturers stood at six in march, declining from 12. economists had forecast eight. we get nonfarm payrolls out of the u.s. later. employers probably added around an,000 jobs in march, with eight-year low of 4.9%. the economy will gain workers and shed efficiency with today's arrival of a higher minimum wage in the u.k. david cameron is pushing up the 6.70 toel of pay from 7.20 an hour. that is the biggest increase in eight years.
is unhappyul jay-z with his music streaming purchase. seeking compensation from the previous owners of tidal, saying they inflated subscriber numbers. jay-z has touted the service as the artists response to spotify and apple. dal trails its rivals with only about 3 million users. they conducteds due diligence before acquiring. global news 24 hours at a powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. find more stories on the bloomberg at top . anna: haidi lun has details of the session underway. a really weak session. the china manufacturing story failing to capture the markets of imagination. instead, people focusing on gloom out of japan. haidi: that's right, anna.
brushing aside the good news out of china, building on the positive data in industrial profits over the weekend. ondid see shanghai putting 12% in march alone. seeing a little bit of profit taking. the shanghai composite down about 0.6%. risk appetite in china. good news is not seen as good news. it could be an indication that the pboc will refrain from more easing. we have also had the yuan stabilize as well. there's not as much in terms of the loudness of calls for the central bank to do much more. we really are seeing the steepest declines in the session coming from japan. the nikkei extending losses into the close. firsty 3.6% for this trading day of the quarter.
we had that stronger yen weighing on the outlook for exporters. the survey really calling into question the idea of whether abenomics is doing anything to get the japanese economy out of stagnation. none of that is particularly good. hong kong stocks down by 1.2%, just one day after chinese listed shares in hong kong ended a bull market. sydney and singapore as well down by about 0.7%. movers, inok at the between when i spoke to you last and now, macau gaining. revenue numbers for the month, down 16.3% in march, that was slightly worse than estimates of about 15.5%. it really comes off february's number, which was incredibly lower and suggested a bottoming
out in terms of the slowdown. take a look at gaming shares listed in hong kong. that stock is up over 30% year-to-date. declineina, the biggest are in the hong kong session, down 3%. mgm down 3.4%. you can see, the chinese consumer, chinese spending, continuing to weigh on top of that plunge in hong kong retail sales. anna: thank you, haidi lun in hong kong. let's talk about what lies ahead from the united states later. we get nonfarm payrolls data later on in the trading day. the number of jobs created is important. many investors will be keeping a close eye on the wage growth component. su keenan has more from new york. su: u.s. investors are closely
awaiting the jobs data to be released in the friday wall street session. 205,000 is the number of jobs u.s. companies are expected to have created during the month of march. that forecast would be consistent with a strong, healthy labor market, and to put it into context, one also be a 242,000ecline from the jobs created in february. analysts note that some moderation is expected of snow u.s. gets closer -- expected as the u.s. gets closer to full employment. the u.s. unemployment rate, along with job growth, a lot of investors also focused on wage growth. that may have moderated a bit. average hourly earnings are forecast to have climbed 2.2% in the year-end of february. in january, that was 2.5%. analysts have been anxious for a wage pickup.
that would give insight into inflation. friday.ig focus on as analysts point out, it will give a lot of clues into the .trength of the u.s. economy as the fed has indicated, it will take a more gradual approach to raising interest rates. anna: chicago's fed president says while the u.s. employment situation is healthy, low inflation means there should be continued caution. >> we are looking at an economy that is close to fulfilling its maximum employment mandate. unemployment is below 5%. that is a very good outcome compared to when we were at 10% for the basic measure of unemployment. payroll employment growth has been quite strong. that is good. inflation has been low. that is the reason why i think continued caution is called for.
we need to have confidence that we can get inflation up to 2%. anna: also speaking last night was bill dudley, who struck a positive tone about the state of his country's economy. >> it is much too soon to claim success. the u.s. economy is in relatively good shape. the economic expansion is in its seventh year and we have made considerable progress. also, the tools that we designed to control monetary policy even with a very large balance sheet have been shown to be effective. anna: kully samra, managing director at charles schwab u.k., joins us in the studio. happy jobs today. what is the focus of your thinking? i've got a chart that shows the isn services index, particularly interesting because of what this tells yoabout the pace of hiring in the services sector.
that is coming down. what is the nonmanufacturing report on business employment. that there is us weakness in the nonfarm payrolls number to come? kully: as one of your reporter sent, you would expect some degree of moderation. we've had consistent hijabs growth for a wild now. the picture is continuing to show decent growth. you see anecdotal evidence of tightness in labor markets. the national federation of independent businesses saying they are seeing tightness. while wage growth is very important, i think what is also important is the participation rates. 62.9 as the saw participation rate. that means that over the past five months, 2 million more people have come into the workforce. a 2% further increase is another 5 million people. anna: so we are not yet at the
end of that story. it is not just the number of people coming to work, it is the number of people available for work. kully: they are encouraged by conditions improving. the relativets resilience of the u.s. economy. anna: what do you make of the wage story? we were having a conversation with bob barker from credit suisse about how the most recent trend has been output in wages, but it is below the historic averages. kully: nothing is ever black and white. there is a demographic shift. baby boomers are starting to retire. younger people are coming into the workforce, which actually depresses wages growth. there are pockets of tightness that are occurring, whether it is contraction, small businesses, and that will lead to wage growth. anna: does it lead to more sustained inflation? we've seen inflation on various
measures ticking up. janet yellen and others are not convinced that is a sustained move. kully: on tuesday, janet yellen talking about how to sustain inflation increases. we had core cpi over 2%. i agree that we need to see this continue. it run we need to see hotter than 2%, i don't know. i think we are traveling in the right direction. anna: what do you make of the very global fed? kully: i was frustrated by that. think theytcher, you are focused on the u.s. picture. janet yellen used the term global 11 times and the term uncertain 10 times on tuesday. the frustrating -- it was a bit frustrating. the picture in the u.s. continues to improve. anna: i suppose they've got to be alert to those global conditions. they come back and hurt and
economy. there is this concern about blowback, but there's never been a condition overseas that has pulled the u.s. into recession. i can understand that is a concern about blowback. to the degree that janet yellen is talking now, partially, this was her taking control of fed policy and fed communication. the previous week, they were quite hawkish in their stance. she has had a very dovish stance. 54.4% chance of a rate hike by the end of the year. 0% chance of a rate hike in april. we had a 4% or 6% chance then. kully samra stays with us. the slew of european pmi data out this morning. we had the chinese number.
that was better than expected. let's look at europe. get thees later, we eurozone. 9:30, it will be the u.k. we round off the week with the big unemployment number, job creation number, nonfarm payrolls out of the u.s.. that is 1:30 this afternoon u.k. time. that is what we have been discussing. we have plenty more analysis as we go through the day, talking about the job story. we will touch on some of the other news flow we've had. the strong china number, how that plays against the weakness in japan. ♪
no surprise if you've been keeping an eye on what is happening in asia. considerably weaker for the japanese markets in particular. let's get the bloomberg business flash. kumutha: anbang has walked away from its proposed takeover of starwood hotels. the move makes way for a purchase by marriott. various market considerations cited for pulling its bid. starwood shareholders are scheduled to vote on marriott's $13.2 billion offer next friday. tesla ceo elon musk has unveiled the new model 3. he says there has already been 115,000 orders for the car in the last 24 hours. the more affordable electric sedan will cost $35,000 and deliveries are set to roll out next year. the model 3 is part of the company's master plan. musk said there is a need to
move into high-volume production. the owner of london's gherkin skyscraper and five other people have been accused of corruption in brazil. federal prosecutors allege an executive negotiated a bride in exchange for lifting a tax debt owned by a subsidiary. wasn'tjoseph sovereign directly involved, prosecutors say three tapped phone calls indicate the bribes were discussed with him. major music stars calling on the u.s. government to crack down on youtube and other video upload sites. katy perry, billy joel, and broad stewart are among more than 100 artists and managers who have filed a petition to amend parts of the copyright act. they say the law shields services such as youtube from viability when users upload copyrighted material without permission. the industry has argued the law places too hire a burden on artists.
that is your bloomberg business flash. anna: thanks very much. china's official factory gauge has jumped, showing improving conditions for the first time in eight months. the manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 50.2 in march. let's get more on the china story. malcom scott joins us from hong kong. i'd love to get very excited about this number. above 50 for the first time in eight months. but it doesn't seem to have captured the market's imagination. there's a few reasons for that. there's a few. there's fiscal stimulus coming in the pipe. that was announced last year. there's monetary easing taking place. this is all helping sentiment. the property market is turning around. some of the big cities are showing a surge in sales.
all these things filter through to glass manufacturers, plastics, steel, and that is having at the margin. the doubt is whether it is going to be sustained. the reading of expectations, it surged in march. he tends to surge every march, it ends theway as year in this bearish territory. that was a big component of this month. last month, i should say. maybe there's some seasonality. back, reopening factories after the chinese new year break, and turn bullish. whether this gain is going to be sustained, is the big question. certainly, at face value, this is a reassuring sign that there is more signs of stabilization in china's economy. anna: malcom scott live in hong kong. ,et's return to kully samra still with us in the studio from
charles schwab u.k. you focus on the u.s., but you have to be mindful of the global growth story. when i look at this china pmi look like much, but the first time in eight months we've seen this number above 50. does that suggest the stimulus measures are working? kully: potentially. we've doubted a hard landing in china. we think that the government or leadership is relatively confident. it has learned to communicate better. we didn't believe there was going to be a housing bust. we've seen a lot of these ghost cities being built. there's a lot of strength as well. before you buy a home in the u.s., you have to have a 30% deposit rather. anna: in china. manus: in china. in china.y: anna: people have been borrowing. kully: but the banking sector
doesn't use leverage as much as we do in the list. the banking sector is relatively helpful, though loans have picked up. we don't believe there's going to be a hard landing in china. when china is growing at 14% gdp, economy around $3.6 trillion, around 2007, now the economy is over $10 trillion. even though growth is slower, it contributes more to global gdp. anna: s&p cut their outlook for china, suggesting they are concerned about whether the orientation of the chinese economy is taking place. are you worried about that move from manufacturing to the services sector? kully: the jury is still out. part of the reason s&p cut its because thelieve -- government will have to put in more fiscal stimulus. take longer.
i think s&p suggested six years for this transition to happen. there is competent leadership to deal with the transition. anna: what about your investment strategy? tech and financials? kully: we speak to individual investors. one thing, we spent a lot of time reminding our clients that investment should be a considered process, as opposed to a knee-jerk reaction. that is the overarching message. sectors,e looking for technology, good balance sheet, good leadership, good m&a. financials, healthy. anna: i guess you are having a lot of those conversations. samrayou very much, kully joining us from charles schwab u.k. that will do it for "countdown" this morning. somee expecting to see weakness on the european equity markets. the futures suggest that we will be weaker by around 0.6% on the london market and a bit more
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