tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg April 4, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT
from bloomberg's world york, goods in new afternoon. a new report alleges vladimir putin, criminals, celebrities worldwide are using banks and shadow companies to hide their finances. we discussed the ramifications. -- u.s. we go to d.c. to find out legal precedents and what is at stake. more upside for apple. one analyst says the stock is a buy. or one hour from the close of trading. julie hyman has the latest. julie: a pause today after the major averages reaching their high for the year. .3% pulled back by about today. three orders coming in below estimates. tomorrow, the focus will be on
the service portion of the on the with the release supply management. all three major averages turning lower today. at the imap. we have the industrials in bottom place today. industrials, material discretionary. counterbalanced to some degree by gains in health care shares. we are also watching treasuries today because we talk a lot about the volatility drop off we have seen within the stock market. it's happening some -- to some degree in the treasury market. 1.78% in the tenure today. we see a convergence of central-bank policy around the globe so the move index that tracks volatility within treasuries, we have seen that fall as well.
those two things happening. also wanted point out the movement in the u.s. dollar. the euro is up versus the dollar for the sixth session in a row. you can see the gains it again today even though they are relatively modest. the dollar is down. what about for commodity prices? julie: it's not helping commodities either. todayices are lower because of the saudi arabia discussion. natural gas is going higher so the forecast is for a more natural gas demand. on the metal side of the in gold, some weakness prices. you can see a pullback of half a percent and copper is having his longest losing streak in two
years. a pessimistic note from berkeley saying copper prices are poised to fall further. david: thank you. on the's get a check headlines of the bloomberg first world news. >> first up, we had to louisiana and a federal judge there in new orleans has granted final approval to an estimated $20 billion settlement. that decision, a result of years of litigation over the 2010 bp oil spill. includes $5.5 billion in civil penalties related to the clean water act. the offshore rig explosion killed 11 workers and cause a 134 million gallons spill. that money is to be paid out over a 16 year period. head to theters polls tomorrow for the presidential primary. ted cruz leads by 10 percentage points of the latest polling. trump is telling john kasich to
get out of the race. democrats paul, bernie sanders leading hillary clinton in the state. state was in panama among the most active in registering shell companies that move money around the world on behalf of rich and politically connected clients according to findings released by the international consortium of investigative journalists. than 200 thousand offshore companies in all. shell companies can be legal but it can also be used to hide well. the championship game of men's college basketball's tonight. villanova faces north carolina. coach roy williams will be looking for his third national championship. nobleness 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world.
thank you very much. let's turn back to the markets. all three major industries are down on the day. takes in00 is up 13% part to a slump in the dollar and rebound in oil. cio of is the concentrated u.s. growth. julie was talking about the soft dollar. this is still a currency story. guest: everyone was worried the dollar would go to parity versus the euro and that is huge on corporate earnings in the u.s. u.s. companies can be nicely profitable and grow, which is most important. david: earning season kicks off a week from today. what do you expect and what are you looking for? guest: it hard to see how the first half of that exciting aving we still have still
currency pressure and oil remains much lower than it was a year ago. i'm not expecting much in terms of the first or second quarter but into the second half of the year, you start to get really nice growth and i think that is what investors are looking forward to. a commodities story as well. that has been driving the stock for a while here. when commodities are down, frankly, the consumer has more purchasing power in that should be a good thing but the market really hasn't acted that way. once we get to stability, they should decouple. david: janet yellen was at the economic club of new york last week. what did you hear from her last week? it seems like the market was pretty pleased. guest: the biggest take away is we are not going to let the dollar strengthened too much. if anything, we let the economy heat up. the lower for longer mantra is a
life of them -- is alive. david: i wonder how you think the fed policy makers looked at it. guest: i think the u.s. economy is doing everything it can. it really gets to how fast or will they raise short-term rates and based on what janet yellen said, not too quickly, which gives the link that the ride more health. david: is your sense about the economy is growing in line with theirs? guest: without a doubt. it is very bumpy. with better job numbers, gdp is still stuck around 2% and we don't see anything to really decouple that in the short-term so it will be a stock picker's market where you will have winners and losers. david: what are you looking at in terms of sectors? guest: in terms of revenue growth -- and that's the biggest thing we looking for, companies i can grow their revenues year
after year. when you look at fourth-quarter 47% of, 40 part -- companies have up to revenues. we looked last week at this other dichotomy between european and u.s. equities. is that a market you want to be in? guest: from a u.s. investor, if you are a big company just to the u.s., it's hard to grow. you need some white space to grow so you need to find companies that can grow across though asia, even they are not gangbusters. david: how is playing out in your world? when you see what the bank of japan is doing and what the fed is doing? guest: i would argue negative interest rates aren't that stimulative. i'm not sure where they will go with that. to a degree, you can see whether currencies have done.
i'm not sure that's the right direction to go. it doesn't sound like the u.s. is going in that direction. david: with emerging markets pivoting to asia a bit, the chinese government saying they will be more transparent. are you optimistic about the way things are going in china? guest: i think you have two different markets, manufacturing and consumer-driven market. i think the building phase is not over but the best days are behind us whereas the consumer driven market still has a lot of upside. when you look at a company like apple, they can do well. ,he steel producers and others that will be more challenging. david: what do you like these days? guest: i like companies that have the volume growth, the revenue growth. google is growing their volumes 20% plus. mastercard growing their
underlying transactions by double-digit's. when you get to the point with both companies where currency is no longer a headwind, you see really nice bottom-line growth. you mentioned mastercard. looking at financials, how do you feel about them? they have been losing in the year. optimistic? guest: one story is financials that are very sensitive to the low rate environment and financials sensitive to consumer spending. i want to be on the consumer spending side of it so someone like a mastercard is all dependent on how much the consumer spends and the spending on cards is the real story because it just continues to grow. it is all going to be captured by the mastercard and visa's of the world. health care has really been beaten up this year. worst sector year to date. the companies aren't that bad, they have nice growth. there's been political rhetoric
about what people will do about drug price control. we've heard this many times so i'm skeptical when you can buy a company that i think over the next five years can grow over 20% plus. that is exciting when you are only playing 17 times or so. david: what role does politics play right now? is it something that is influencing what you're seeing? guest: is not influencing what we buy. we are looking to buy great franchises with underlying growth but there will be a lot of noise between now and then. something gets disproportionately hit or very expensive based on an expectation, we probably rotate the four folio the other way. portfolio thee other way. david: thank you. coming up, major fallout from the panama papers. vladimir putin goes on the defense did -- defensive.
business stories in the news right now. alaska air buying virgin america. 2.6 billion dollars. here is ceo david cush speaking to me earlier today. the fact is, we outperform our competition on head to head routes. these are the most competitive routes in the country. ofhink their plan is to kind get their head under the hood, figure out what is working and how they hold on to the. david: the takeover will expand. alaskan shares have fallen more than four are sent. venture firm has invested to audit $50 million in groupon. comcast is to work with a group to bolster the cable companies local ad business. groupon says it will use the investment for general corporate purposes. soul train is on track for acquisition by the bt networks
intermedia partners. bt will also get over 1100 television episodes and 40 television specials. soul train began syndication in 1971. that is her business flash update. we are getting new details about the panama papers, the trove of 11 point 5 million documents that reveal how essential american law firm helps hide riches through shell companies. when hundred 43 government officials have been implicated. david joins me now. --'s start with the exercise with the size, the scale of this. guest: it huge. became thekileaks largest leak ever. this is bigger. it is 2.6 terabytes.
they said they couldn't even transfer the documents by e-mail so i assume there had to be hard drives exchanged. it has 300,000 shell companies so the tentacles have already led all over the globe and we'll know where it's headed. -- we don't know where it's headed. had 40 a firm that different outlets around the globe. individuals and businesses with their business contacts but they were the goto company if you wanted to get some privacy. much of it is very legal. it also becomes an easy place for people involved illicit activity to hide their activity. david: there is dramatic video of reporters sitting down with the prime minister of iceland. he walks out on the interview when he is presented with these allegations. what do we know about whom this affects? guest: he has the biggest
problem in terms of political fallout. before he was elected, he was and to a company in the british virgin islands accused of being involved with tax avoidance. he denied any connection to the company. the organization that put out the documents say it shows he did have a partnership in this. there were calls for his resignation, calls for snap elections. he is in the hot seat but the prime minister of pakistan was also there. friends and associates of president vladimir putin are alleged to have used russian banks to move billions of dollars offshore. i think we will see what happens. vladimir putin has always been crafty and he denies any wrongdoing and at this point, there's no documents direct to the -- directly linking him. david: these documents came out
over the weekend. reporters are just going through them. where do you see this investigation going next? guest: i think first, it's fifa. with the a big scandal world soccer federation and the documents show that a lawyer on the ethics committee who did work for some of the people charged from a na li in the criminally inrged the scandal. the second is with the banks. k-swiss, hsbc according to the documents set up tens of thousands of shell companies on behalf of clients. i think the doj today said they will be looking at it. if they are found to have violated in terms of a settlement, that could lead to big problems. david: these documents reportedly detail the 300,000 offshore
companies. give us the scope of this industry. guest: it secret so no one quite knows how much is there. experts say there are tens of trillions of dollars in this secret banking world. a few years ago, something came out of the cook islands. this takes another kind of chip away from the wall of secrecy. there are hundreds and thousands of others out there no doubt. david: thank you so much. bloomberg news cry natural crimes reporter -- financial crimes reporter. -- a new report says services will be a prophet for the company. the analyst who just raised his price target for apple coming up on bloomberg markets. ♪
markets. stocks losing momentum, slipping from their highest levels of the year with industrial shares leading the way lower. julie hyman standing by. julie: thank you. joining me today is jim strober, a derivative strategist and we have been talking for the past several weeks about the decline in volatility but you and i were talking during the break. we have a chart to look at global volatility. it's a global financial stress index and as you can see, your contention is volatility may be down but it's not down as much as it feels like it's down. it's not as low as it was a couple years ago. guest: that is exactly the point. it,as had a 13 handle on around 14 today. the curve has come in fairly sharply. orer measures of volatility related metrics, the volatility
in year trough, the jca index, the implied correlation of the top 50 stocks in the s&p 500. that made new lows at the end of last week relative to the last couple years. we are plumbing what we think is a trough. vicks getsink scott down to 11 or 10 like it did last august but the measure of global risk looks across asset classes and across to obviously. measure, pretty well correlated with the vicks index as well. there was a trough made in secular terms in june 2014. if you are just staring at u.s. equity markets and u.s. equity measures of volatility or just looking at your screen and you're snoozing throughout the day, it feels like volatility is incredibly low. across asset classes,
geographies, it's not the case. in this environment, even if it's all relative, is it more difficult to find opportunities right now because of the decline versus the higher levels we have seen in volatility? guest: it has been a tough start to the year for institutional investors. they were on their heels from day one. it's tough to find many institutional investors and certainly who have done well here. timing both the decline in equities to start the year and a sharp rebound. our take away really again is that we remain in a high volatility environment where we think bobbing up against this lower boundary. stocker plays no strategy, where if you benefited from a rooftop in your long stocks take down some of that risk, replicate the options, and look for options to
take premium out of the market. julie: when of those opportunities you are looking at is in linkedin. guest: we covered, we like it longer-term. stock down after quarter earnings in early february. implied volatility out in early may. the next round of earnings above 70%. you can go out to expiration if you're already along the stock, you sell a 135 strike call, you if thealmost 3% and stock gets up above that 135 level at expiration, you are effectively selling your stock 20% higher. much. thank you so we will be right back with more bloomberg markets. ♪
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u.s.-nato relations and president obama sat side by side with the nato secretary general. it was a symbolic rebuke to donald trump whether his question of the alliance, obama had this response. president obama: it is the cornstone of our defense and security policy. >> the two men discussed the fight against islamic state as well as fonings operations in libya. the president called attention to the refugee crisis stemming from syria's civil war. president obama will go to law school this week to push his nomination of eric garland. he will go to the university of chicago on thursday to argue for senate consideration of the appeal judge's nomination. garland meets with two more republican senators on tuesday. senator ayotte is planning to
meet with garland next week. greece were start to resume talks. a text seemed to confirm divisions between the i.m.f. which is hawkish on austerity measures. greece has accused the i.m.f. of using a potential bankruptcy to strengthen its negotiating position. it was dismissed as quote, nonsense. don't miss our exclusive nterview at 4:30k eastern on bloomberg television, radio and bloomberg.com. the highest in the nation minimum wage. the governors of new york and california took pen to paper for boosting the minimum wage. and new york will raise it but y the end of 2019.
24 hours news a day powered by our journalists and news bureau. david: markets close in 30 minutes. looking at the nasdaq, down half of a percent. e are looking at the nasdaq. >> virgin america's big story. stock shares are soaring that alaska has agreed to buy virgin air. this move puts alaska air in la guardia and j.f.k. airports. many watchers ahead of this announcement expected jetblue to be the acquirer, but it's not a must-win for jetblue while the c.e.o. of virgin america said it came down to price. thinking about cars and airplanes, you would think an airplane would win but not so in the tesla model s. that raced a
boeing 737 and won. it has to do with the company's successful launch of its model 3. he company had taken 296,000 reservations, four times they had expected. the stock is above of its average. more upside could be to come. david: where are else are we seeing big movers? >> apple. shares are higher. and raised its price target to $150 per share and believes apple services are underestimated as drivers for the stock. this is similar to comments out of goldman sachs last fall. there has been a shift with investors and analysts becoming more confident about the iphone. the last time that this happened
for apple, it was last fall ahead of the big slide. the pressure is on apple to deliver when they report current quarter earnings on april 25. david: this is what you call, shares rising. and raising the price target on $150.from $140 to joining us now is an analyst. thank you for being here today. what prompted you to make this move? >> there were details and what we did, we went to estimate the net revenues and gross revenues for every major apple segment from i tunes, to icloud and gross profit level and the end conclusion, the market underestimates the exposure
apple has to services. and more specifically we see the exposure to grow and double that . and receive news and profits. and that improves the quality of the earnings of apple going forward. david: what has dampened the enthusiasm for these services? there wasn't more hardware revealed and talk at the time that services were apple's future. what does apple need to do to realize that? >> there are a few things. several of the services are maturing. why are we comfortable. one thing to remember, they have a very high quality user base. one billion devices out in circulation and these users are highly affluent and digitially aware and very young. this applied in all markets.
that's very good. the next part is what grows the services stream. and this is a spectacular driver of growth and the maturing of services like icloud and appleplay and applemusic and we will see them move in the tv and video market and that will doubly the services. and the focus would shift away from hardware launches every year to being a diversified stream of cash flow. david: you mentioned tv growth. do you expect that to happen for apple to get into the tv game? >> if you look at all the service offerings, they have messaging and music, and icloud and gaming. what is missing the tv service. what's clear in all the discussions over the last year
that have come out in the media, there have been talks with the various cable providers and they have to go down here. i would be surprised if apple didn't make a move in this area. david: do you worry that it has worrd to get into the content game? reports that apple was going to produce its first television show. i was reaching the point there was a lot of mat turration and apple just starting to get into that game. >> this is early stages of delivering content online and apple's biggest selling proposition even though they are less, look at apple music, which i don't believe what the best out there, but they got paying users within nine months, a fraction of time. the reason they did that is they have these users who want to
conduct apple services. it brought out an interesting concept on the tv side and go to the app store and no reason why these services revenues can't see a healthy upgrade. david: i understand there has been attrition from that as well. what does apple music need to do to become more on par? >> a couple of things. the user interface is complex in the first generation. that can be improved. second of all, they need to more content on there and clearly doing that with the various radio services they have. the final thing would integrate some of these apple music services with their other services. they have a good messaging platform and integrate it with the tv product and across the iphone and ipad. that isn't difficult due to the
r&d resources. david: i wonder what the legacy is between apple and the justice department with the justice department saying it didn't need the cooperation from apple to unlock the iphone. what is the effect on that on the business of apple? >> apple is adda mant and protecting consumers' data. with all the services they will not go into that. it's an extension of that instruction and will keep the consumer as safe as possible from all the different entities. my perspective, pushing that. now obviously if apple phones can be hacked by other entities going forward -- i don't think the apple user that typically 90% of whom will go out there and purchase apple products will be significantly impacted by the various announcements.
david: this is "bloomberg markets." and looking at the biggest stories. the supreme court is turning wn appeals from wal-mart and was objecting to a judgment in favor of employees who are forced to work through lunch breaks. wells fargo is appealing a judgment for charging customers oo much in overdraft fees.
the unit makes an experimental drug. it will pay $400 million and could receive another $800 million. and moody's is downgrading the debt and ongoing political stale mate in the new jersey state house and possible default within the next year. the measure to allow the state to take control of the city's finances. moody expects bond holders to lose because of the city's large structural deficit. and that is your business flash update. to the developing story, the u.s. is suing value act. justice department said it failed to notify the government when acquired stakes in halliburton and hughes. how unusual is this for the
government to scrutinize the company in this way. >> this lawsuit raises very interesting issues and not unusual to go after investors for declaring investments they haven't made. when are they required to report. they buy billions of stock every day without any problems. if you buy more than 10% of a company's shares or trying to influence the management strategy, at that point, just diss at the present time officials or federal trade commission want to know what you are doing. david: what do we know from this iling how it was trying to influence halliburton and baker hughes? >> they say they were trying to include the merger between halliburton and baker hughes. the market is being concerned about and seen reports of
antitrust officials being skeptical and concerned. david: let me have a look at the bloomberg. here showing the spread at 40% here. remind us of what the holdup -- this deal was announced in 2013. $42.6 billion deal. what are the concerns? what could the u.s. government be concerned about here? >> this is a deal that will tie up the number two and number three players in the oil services industry and there is a lot of concern whether it will take out competition and raise oil prices for companies who are trying to get craggets and service wells and drill wells and all the things that halliburton and bake you are hughes do. david: what do we know of what value delem act might have been trying to do here? halliburton aken
and baker hughes have been trying to force the companies to spur the conclusion of the deal. but the question that's raised in their case that is quite interesting at what point does an investment going from a passive investment to an active investment and the lines can be blurred on that and up to the companies to report when they are changing their stance and strategy. david: what are the consequences if valueact were to lose this case? >> they said they are going to fight it. the d.o.j. is asking for $19 million in fines. so at the end of the day, this is not a huge issue for them. if anything, it's a shot across the bow for investors to say we are watching and you need to report into us. it seems that the bigger issue that this story signals is what's going to happen with the
baker hughes-haley burton deal. and there is a line in the complaint that they are trying to do a merger that raises concerns for the market. we are going to be watching this week. antitrust enforcements from all over the world are gathering in washington and all eyes are on the d.o.j. to see what they decide about this merger. david: this is a deal that faced scrutiny not just in the u.s. but europe as well. >> europeans are looking at it and coordinating with the u.s. firnls and we saw recently they actually stopped their clock on this deal for the third time saying they are missing details. this has been fought from day one. they struggled to move this forward to present remedies. and the merger is ok
signs -- it's not over until the fat lady sings. david: from my time in washington, i can only imagine haley burton has hired a lot of lobbyists. what is the compelling region for this merger to go through? >> they say it's by efficiencies and join forces with them and become a bigger competitor to the number one and pass on those savings to the customers. david: thanks, sarah. coming up on "bloomberg markets." here are the u.s. averages. dow half of a percent. 17,720. nasdaq down, 28 points. down. nd s&p
david: markets close in 10 minutes. julie has your market check. julie: we are closing near the lows for the session as we see this pause after the rally we had seen stocks that took them to their highs of the year thus far. i want to focus on individual movers, because there wasn't a lot of macro direction today. yes, we had some economic data that missed estimates and oil prices lower, which ended up dragging on stocks as the day went on but interesting stories as well. i alluded to one. edwards life sciences has a new
aortic valve and at the annual meeting, it was said that it has a lower risk of death or surgery and americans who can't get this particular device, allows patients to avoid open heart surgery. these shares are surging on this news and positive test from this new product. shares of southwestern energy. the company says it extended its credit line, expanded it, $1.5 billion and expanded it into the second quarter. on the downside today, interesting situation over at the home builder. the c.e.o. plans to retire and has been c.e.o. of the company for over a decade but coming under pressure from the company's founder and there is a change happening because he has been leaning in turn arrive
rooneds. and another one of the worst performer and leading other types of automotive parts company. this report said environmentalists in the e.u. might hold more sway over carbon targets which would be a negative for these companies and triggering their decline today. david: thanks, julie. the benchmarks having the worst day in almost two weeks. a columnist joins us now. the market trying to catch its breath, take a pause. >> the market reminds me of donald trump and all the pundits keep predicting it will stumble or weaken and just keeps coming back. today is a breather or the start of something worse. to me, fundamentally, it seems difficult to bid stocks too much higher than say the highs reached last week just because
the earnings picture is looking so bleak. the earnings quarter starts week, a 10% drop in earnings. several quarters in a row and excluding energy companies, looking at a 5% drop in earnings. should the company beat those estimates, but it would take a significant beat to bring the positive growth on the earnings front. that keeps a task on things. we aren't going to approach that 2130 level which was the record last may. every dip we have taken, the lows are a little bit and the highs are a little bit lower than the previous highs. watching the chart, that's not the trend you don't want to see. you want to see higher highs and higher lows. david: we have the chart showing the s&p and the price of oil. it was sort of tracking hand and
glove. but no longer. >> at the extreme, it is the lower oil, that correlation gets locked up. people did take notice and stocks kept rallying. today, former relationship that we saw is back in place. and the fed is the biggest -- outside of earnings, the only thing that maybe could overshadow earnings picture is the fed. janet yellen being very doveish and we had the boston fed saying, wait, don't get too excited. the market isn't pricing as many rate hikes as i expect. and you have this back and forth between the hawks and the doves on the fed. david: i'm wondering what it's going to increase volume, volume has been so low for so long now. >> earnings, blackout windows and earnings will come back and
that should stoke the volume. david: we had a six-week rally and now tapering off. >> who knows, if the doveishness from the fed, if that tone prevails, we could see it much higher but earnings in the long run will tell us where we are. david: mike, thank you very much. and that is for "bloomberg markets." looking at the major averages, all in the red. the nasdaq down 25 points. "what'd you miss" is coming up next. ♪
i am alix steel. >> stocks closing lower this monday. jim: the question is miss mills? scarlet: we ask fraunchfraunch this is rt start of a sanu relationship. >> plus two emerges markets whose presidents are facing possible emergence. alix: alix: and the scary similarities between the housing bubble and the energy crisis. >> we begin with our market minutes, stocks posting their worst day since march 23. they couldn't hang on to the gains they posted last week. still hovering around the highest levels of the year. when you look at the industry groups, eight of 10 major groups falling, led by the materials group. w.t.i. down 3%.