yellen, bernanke, take ton, and volcker the stage in a historic conversation. the current central-bank chair striking a positive tone on the u.s. economy. yellen: i once described this as a bubble economy. we had relatively weak global growth, but the u.s. economy has been doing well. manus: a rocky ride on the currency markets. volatility nears a five-year high, driven by a surge in the yen while japanese officials say they are prepared to act if appropriate. verizon is block
said to plan an offer for yahoos with business, including its japanese arm, sending shares in tokyo surging. you are welcome to "countdown" this friday morning. i'm manus cranny in london. the cynic in me says the markets are preparing for something much more insidious to come. let's focus on the yen. has the yen run it smile? this is where we are seeing dollar-yen on a time frame, high noon for the yen in the united states. view at theo be the moment. this was new york yesterday at 11:00. 4:00 in london. midnight on the orient express.
we see the market begin to turn around. the voices of intervention are rising. the high for yen was the strongest since before qe. we've had a five-day rally. up2.8% against the pound and 2.6% against the dollar. the biggest moving yen was against the pound. bank of america says get ready for appreciation. nomura says the level at which you see appreciation is 105. a friend of the program was spoken. he says they won't intervene on dollar-yen until you trigger the 100 level. investors are piling back into the yen. noncommercial positions in dollar-yen are up 27%. where will they intervene? how will they do it? we've got oil on the march, up over 3% this week.
output is falling. great note on the bloomberg this morning. stop focusing on doha. focus on u.s. production. that is what is potentially going to bring more shale producers back in. $38.07, up over 3%'s. concerns about global growth are beginning to move. the lack of belief in center bank intervention. 10-year government bond yields just sneaking above 1.7%. two-week rally since the start of the year. we've put on 1.3% over the past two weeks. gold is dipping ever so slightly. it has been the best week in a month for gold. msci, the emerging markets are the risk rallies beginning to crack? here's the bloomberg first word news.
it is, the run often. good morning. a stake in an offshore fund , nowp by his late father it is the first time the british prime minister has answered the question of whether he benefited from the investment. >> samantha and i had a joint account. we owned 5000 units in an investment trust which we sold in january 2010. that was worth something like 30,000 pounds. i paid income tax on the dividends. there was a profit on it, but list than the capital gains tax allows. but it was subject to all the u.k. taxes in normal ways. kumutha: credit suisse has told employees to avoid discussing the so-called brexit before the u.k. referendum in june. the bank wants staff to stay away from events where the issue
might be raised and not to talk about it in public. business figures in london warned that overseas banks would move elsewhere if britain votes to leave the block. singapore has overtaken hong kong as the world's number three financial hub. that is according to a london-based group. the linking -- the ranking reflects key competitive areas including financial sector development and infrastructure of the financial centers around the world. venezuela's president has designated every friday in the month of april and may as nonworking holiday. that is in a bid to save electricity as a prolonged drought pushes water levels to critical thresholds. the announcement comes after forro shut down the country a week over the easter holiday, giving workers three additional days off. global news 24 hours a day
powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . manus: thank you very much. yvonne man is standing by. there seems to be that little bit of disbelief in terms of the ability of central banks really to give these markets the rally they need. what is going on in your part of the world? yvonne: this is what we are seeing. mostly ran across the board. onhave seen pressure regional benchmarks. the one reason why we are seeing gains now on the benchmark is because of japan. stating quite a comeback in the last hour or so. 1% up on the nikkei, but shanghai stocks heading for the longest losing streak since january. the hang seng, down about 0.5%. we are expecting inflation data
out of china next week. ,he forecast is 2.4% growth which may make it hard for the government to further ease monetary policy. japan, account balance coming with the 20th straight month of surplus. oil imports helping. it is really masking what is going on when it comes to exports, which continue to be hurt. you've been talking about the yen. 108.77. we've been holding onto 108 all morning. 105 seems to be what the bold to the bears have agrees when it comes to the boj intervening. manus: that is literally what everybody is waiting for. thank you very much. yvonne man in hong kong. past andhez
present shared the stage yesterday. chairs past and present shared the stage yesterday to give their take on the global economy. ms. yellen: i certainly wouldn't describe this as a bubble economy. we have relatively weak global growth, but the u.s. economy is doing well and domestic strength has been propelling us forward in spite of the fact that we are suffering a drag from the global economy. china is very big. it is going to be a lot bigger than the united states, economically, as well as population. if the rmb becomes an international currency, it probably will reflect an opening of the chinese economy, which might be good for the world. mr. bernanke: there's no sense
in which expansions die of old age. the risk of a recession is more or less constant every year. though we can't forecast them, there's no reason to think that just because we've been seven years of recovery, doesn't mean that we are due for another recession at all. mr. volcker: the data -- mr. greenspan: the data that i see is that productivity slowed down pretty much a close -- across the globe as a result of capital investment pretty much everywhere slowing down to a as thecant extent percent of gdp has been dramatically lower than it has been historically. our function should be, and i certainly agree that monetary policy should not have the whole load of getting us out of this phenomenon, it is fundamentally a fiscal problem, and spending
money only increases the debt. greenspan has mr. been reading far too much european press. joining me to discuss the fed is ramin nakisa. -- of wisdom and some fairly interesting messages. saying fiscal policy needs to step in. he went on to talk about the global nature of risk. the fed, they noted that 20 times. when you hear that kind of concern, the fed is very much more a global fed than it was under volcker. paul volcker raised rates and thwarted inflation. greenspan butchered bond markets twice by raising rates in 1994. and look at this, the lockstep is that he made in the early 2000's. treasuries have been demolished
in terms of yield. saying toat overall you? ramin: i think what is key is where we are headed. what is the ultimate level of the fed funds rate going to be? that depends on the level of growth, which has been coming down steadily over the past 30, 40 years. what we expecting is that the terminal rate is going to be 2.9%. on your chart, that is a lot lower than in the past. manus: i'm going to all this up as well. that is what markets are really getting the hang of. the fed hiked rates for the first time in december. the boj went negative. msci. we go into negative rates here. we are beginning to fade. we had disbelief. there is a lack of belief in terms of the drug that is being given to us, which is monetary policy. ramin: what is interesting in
the u.s. is that the fed doesn't have to tighten, because conditions are tightening themselves. the index is showing you that the tightening is happening without the fed having to take at all -- having to hike at all. look at nonfinancial measures of credit like the credit managers index. all those point to a tightening of credit conditions, which is cooling down the economy. do they have to hike at all? can they just stand pat and let the market do it for them? manus: he's in there such a heavy weight of expectation that they will hike? they've already cut back once. i think they would lose all credibility if they didn't go for another hike. i'm not saying it is the right thing. they would lose credibility. ramin: there are going to be two hikes at the end of the year.
the markets tell us there will be either zero or one this year. rosenkranz pointed it out last week. he thinks the markets are far too as a mistake. inflation is starting to rise at last. that is a good thing. manus: i love what you wrote about high-yield. we've got a cracking ground on high yield. it beat the s&p. he beat european high-yield. you make a very important point, which is that issuance is down by 61%. let's look at the graph. down by 66%. there going to be difficulty in terms of rolling over. is the bloomberg global high yield index. what does that say in terms of my concern? high yield bonds have delivered, what, 3.7% in that quarter? ramin: the key thing is the price of oil. if you look at the relationship
between the price of oil and u.s. credit spreads, it is nonlinear. the fall makes a much bigger difference. i think the key thing here is if it does start to fall again, we will see the rate of default start to pick up and there's a rate of contagion into other sectors. why does that matter? there's $1 trillion of distressed debt in the u.s. which has to be rolled over. manus: and the big drop in q1 earnings, 9% drop in profitability, a huge amount of that is down to commodities, oil, and oil related businesses. i think we need to talk over the nuances of that. hope you've got a warm coffee. let's set up your day ahead. two main european releases. february production figures from france and the u.k. 7:45, 9:30. we get wholesale inventory expectations for a negative
reading on that number. throughout the day, we will bring you guests from the workshop in china via. that lineup includes nouriel roubini, the chairman of j.p. morgan chase international, jacob frankel, and germany's deputy finance minister, jens spahn in his first interview of the day. you are watching "countdown." will the sunshine on the economists and they european growth story? you will find out. bloomberg. ♪
1%. we are looking at a beautiful shot of the harbor in hong kong. let's get the bloomberg business flash. come with a ramanathan here. kumutha: making a bid for young's web business to help sweden the offer. that is according to people with -- familiar with the matter. a separate person says google is fitting for yahoo!. the fbi said it paid for the tools used to break into an iphone last month and is considering whether to help apple how it was done. authorities dropped the suit against the tech giant after help from a third-party to access data on the iphone that belonged to one of the san bernardino terrorists. the fbi has not said who provided the hacking tools. it is considering whether to provide the solution to local law enforcement agencies. goldman sachs has promoted its
u.s. head of interest rates business. he was named a partner in 2012 and will lead the u.s. interest rate group. that is your bloomberg business flash. manus, good morning. manus: thank you very much. donald trump has promised to tear up the iran nuclear deal. would not be a good idea. that according to president obama's energy secretary. he spoke exclusively to our middle east editor, elliott gotkine. very good day to you. the prime minister is not necessarily a big fan of the iranian nuclear deal either, is he? >> that is a bit of an understatement. prime minister netanyahu was trying to nuke the nuclear talks from the start, going behind the back of president obama to gress. directly to con
donald trump's perspective, he says that his first priority if he becomes president would be to tear up the iran nuclear deal, something the secretary says wouldn't be very clever. will taket president office just after the one-year anniversary of implementation. it is hard for me to believe that it would be a wise move on the part of the united states of america to see a year of implementing this successfully and to walk away from it knowing that, first of all, sanctions relief will already have come to and knowing that it is extremely unlikely that our p5 plus one and other partners who a comprehensive
sanctions regime -- it is very unlikely that they would follow our lead if the next president arbitrarily says, everything is going fine, but i don't like this deal. it just does not make any sense. elliott: highly unlikely that it could be reversed. >> technically possible, but i just don't see that any calculation leads you to that as being a sensible approach. elliott: during our conversation, we talked about other energy issues as well. we've got this upcoming meeting of oil ministers in doha. iran seems to be the big stumbling block. saudi arabia says it won't freeze output unless everybody else does the same. that includes iran. iran is trying to boost output. the region of 4
million barrels a day. niz said it is unlikely that iran is going to get on board with that. although it is going to boost capital requirements, they don't seem to be there right now. as far as saudi arabia goes, we had news last week from the deputy crown prince about the initial public offering of saudi arab go. the secretary things it is more likely the downstream assets will ipo. plenty more to come from that. we could even talk about israel's own gas and the likelihood of those exports. manus: yes indeed. elliott gotkine, our middle east editor. thank you very much. ramin nakisa is still with us. listening to elliott talk about the concerns which are very dohalent, we have the
meeting and u.s. production. which is more important for you, a freezing oil output or the demolition of u.s. output, which people are saying is going to be half $1 billion later this year. what wins for you in the war of attrition here? u.s. production is going to be cut. the other place to look is russia, where production is increasing. iran has had sanctions lifted. we also had a speech from the saudi crown prince last week, where he said he would cut production if iran does. i think the likelihood of an agreement there is fairly low. there are very big risks to the downside. we are pretty much at our target already for oil this year. at the end of the year, we think it will absorb the excess production, but that will take a while. that's why i'm not particularly
keen in having asset which have a high correlation to oil. manus: this goes back to the conversation we had a four. what is your default expectation in the u.s.? ramin: we think it will double. 4.4%. manus: if i take that versus europe, you would say that u.s. high-yield -- let's have a look at u.s. high-yield versus european high-yield. you are saying u.s. high-yield has so much exposure to oil, and europe doesn't have that. ramin: that is right. also, we think the oil correlation is part of the story, but also the credit quality. if you look at the amount of ccc in u.s. high-yield, it is double compared to europe. the reading strip has turned double in the u.s.. i think the story now, after
this 40% rally in oil, obviously the u.s. high yield market will outperform. i think the tailwind is going to favor european high-yield from here. if you look at the lending quality, or the amount of lending in europe, that is picking up. credit conditions are tightening in the u.s. you can also see this reversal. timing in the u.s., using in europe. i think those are the key drivers which will make european high-yield outperform. manus: stay with us. we got a little more to get through. we've got brexit to get through in this hour. speaking of which, u.k. prime minister david cameron admits he owned shares in his father's offshore fund. more on that story coming up right here on "countdown." u.s. equity futures are bucking themselves a little bit higher. the s&p 500 indicated 10 points higher at the moment.
manus: and it is friday very it is 6:30 a.m. here in london. 7:30 a.m. in brussels. let us get the bloomberg first word news. kumatha: janet yellen says the u.s. economy is on the salad course. she was joined by her three predecessors as a pallet -- panel discussion in new york. yellen said inflation and employment remain the key indicators dictating the pace of future rate hikes. janet yellen: what we are looking at is the economy as a whole. paths forkely
inflation and employment to achieve our goals. kumatha: david cameron has revealed that he did have a stake in an offshore fund set up by his late father until six years ago. this is the first time he has answered the question as to whether he ever benefited from the investment. had a joint we account. we owed 5 -- owned 5000 units in the glenmore trust which we sold in january 2010. it was worth about 30,000 pounds. i paid income tax on the dividend. it was -- there was a prophet but it was less than the capital gains tax allow. it was subject to all of the taxes. credit suisse has told employees to avoid discussing
the brexit before the u.k. referendum in june. the bank wants staff to stay away from event where the issue might be raised. figures insiness london warned that overseas banks it would move elsewhere if britain votes to leave the block. singapore has overtaken hong kong as the world number three financial hub. that is according to the london-based group which polled more than 2.5 thousand professionals. key competitive areas. including infrastructure. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . manus: thank you very much. $5.3 a market worth trillion a day. .he fx market
it has had a rocky week. volatility has hit levels we have not seen since 2011. guy johnson is here. i like to give you a good introduction. today.is is coming out i am a big fan of simon's. the boj uses language and whether or not we should be aware that intervention is coming down the pike. many are saying it is too early. toare at 108, maybe down 100. seven points out. i had of two interventions we has seen out of the boj in the past. 2010 -- andtember august 2011. previously to both of those
occasions from you had language used by the finance minister talking about the currency moves, and the current moves in the currency market being one-sided. in august 2011 -- i am sorry .ome it july 2011 the finance minister is using the language again. recent movements have been one-sided and we will take action as needed. i call you a skeptic. incidents have been in the past. you listen for trigger words from central banks and finance ministers. is one of those trigger phrases we need to watch out for. maybe the intervention is not as far away as we anticipate. 105 could be the trigger
crash point. some are saying it needs to get below 100 before we do anything. this is a defining moment. where will they intervene? -- we think they will have to act soon. if you look at the survey, it was very weak. inflation was week. that is a good excuse to intervene carry i think the it will havetor is a drag effect on inflation. if the yen continues to that will take them further away from their target. they do not want to be seen to do any kind of currency war. is intervention the right course of action? abe was pushing back in terms of it being unnecessary intervention.
tact.e saw bcb change you wonder whether or not the in for theleading boj. the currency is so pivotal right now. manus: many stepped back from the sales tax hike. it is a quasi-fiscal move. monetary channel has been the big channel four. >> they are already buying equities. the japanese credit market is very small. that is another thing to buy. that is with the ecb has done -- they have expanded the list of current assets they can buy. it is also being bought up by the boj. the net stock is falling. manus: that leaves you with another potential market that is so contaminated. you at -- i will not give
great big go by. guy: you can do that lead-in anytime. manus: guy, thank you very much. let us talk about iceland and the newly installed prime minister who faces a no-confidence debate in parliament today, it barely a week in the seat after the former prime minister stepped down earlier in the week when leaks from a panamanian law firm revealed offshore investments in his name. plans to lift capital controls are still on track. >> it has had no impact on that. a counterparty in the current government. we plan on proceeding. i am hoping that we will be able to take that action. i think it is likely before the
summer recess. manus: for more on this story, let us bring in our nordic managing editor. there he good day to you. -- very good dates you. the no-confidence motion is what we are waiting for today. it was a forward yesterday led by the pirate party leading in the polls. that will happen at 1:00 today. the question is whether this newly named prime minister can survive it and whether the coalition can continue. the other problem is the finance minister in the coalition has also been implicated in the panama leaks so there are also calls for his resignation as well. very much.k you let us see how that pans out in terms of the no-confidence vote today. let us talk about london and the challenge.didate
he has pledged to be the most pro-business the u.k. capital has ever had. speaking to caroline hyde. he says it is crucial that london's plan for future to remain in the eu. europeann back to the union. 500 million customers. they are walking away from a market that has led to so many jobs in london. it is ludicrous. the idea that we could elect a mayor who wants to leave the european union and who is hostile to the european partners is taking a real risk. dose of brexit. there are many issues. my question is this -- at the end of last year, we talked about manufacturing. they talked about the
bloomberg.com -- we had stories about demolition of luxury apartments. a 20% discount. brexit, correlation to the risk of recession. if we vote for brexit, do you expect a recession in the united kingdom in the immediate aftermath? we are looking at two scenarios. a hard or soft brexit. it depends on how good we are at negotiations. there is a 60% probability that we want to stay in the eu. if we have a hard exit, that will affect u.k. growth because there will be less mobility in the labor market and trade terrorists which would obviously or probably have to be imposed. what can't be seen to happen is for the u.k. to walk away from the eu and be unscathed and come out of it as well. it will set a precedent and that
is not -- that is one the eu does not want to have. manus: the other dynamic is this -- the bank of england, some say they have over encouraged in terms of their role. ed inhere -- over encroach terms of their role. i want to bring in this charge. what we have is market expectations of the bank rate. the bank rate if there is no brexit and a bank rate in a brexit scenario. if we remove the risk, the blue line at the bottom is if we have a brexit. you will not see any height on the cards for a quantum period of time. the firstove brexit, hike is in 2018. seven quarters earlier than the market. that is a huge difference. this is where the real risk is,
isn't it? >> we completely agree with that. we don't think there is any way they could raise rates if we had a brexit scenario. they would be very cautious about growth and what will happen to the labor market. no one can really predict the outcome until it happens. even if we do vote to leave, it will take about two years for the full ramifications to be felt. we will be feeling our way. the bank of england cannot predict nor can we. the uncertainty will force them to keep rates low. manus: what did you make of the reason -- there has been a lot of talk around encouraging people to get involved in guilt auctions. ix.ill pull up wb and do itback -- wbix over a space of year today.
storming ahead. year to date. i put myself in here. you have u.k. bonds delivering a return of 6.6%. they are trouncing everything else. more risk inseeing guilt paper relative to the rest of the market? if you look at the equity market as well, that is not pricing brexit. fx market, it the is also very worried. cable is getting hammered. fx is telling a different story than equity. hardly any outflows from the u.k. equity over the last month. 1.4%. very small. manus: the sharpest trader of them all. >> fx always overreacts.
that is the market that tends to overreact. the truth is somewhere in the middle. case we think the central is that we will stay in -- we think that will have a benign effect on markets. cable will rally. manus: how much could it rally? 159 from one year from now because we think we will stay in. back onou are coming june 24 and we will see if there is a better offer on the cable market. always great to get your input. up next, we will talk about the fed, the chairs. his stork appearances. historiclen and -- appearances. janet yellen and three predecessors. the lineup includes the following -- an exclusive with the chairman of jp morgan. finance minister
a.m. in new 1:47 york. futures are indicated on the s&p 500. a quarter ofcated 1%. what a beautiful shot. in london, it is exported 8 is 6:48 a.m. we are setting up for our trading day. we have the business flash news. kumatha: verizon plans to make a first round did for yahoos web business next week and is willing to apply the japan sea
to help sweeten the offer according to people familiar with the matter. a separate person says google is also considering bidding for yahoos or business. shares in south retailing has plunged falling the most since 2013. the owner of unit of flows lowered its operating profit forecast by one third. it was hurt by the strong yen and an unexpectedly warm winter. the fbi says it paid for the tool that was used to break into an iphone last much and is can do during whether to tell at all how it was done. u.s. authorities brought a suit against the tech giant. the fbi has not said who provided the hacking tool. it is also considering whether to arrive the solution to local law enforcement -- whether to provide local law enforcement agencies.
amid personnel turnover in that group. inwas named as a partner 2012 will lead the u.s. trading group. that is your bloomberg business flash. four fed chairs, past and present. they shared a stage for the first time yesterday. janet yellen appeared alongside her predecessors to give their take on the stake of the -- state of the global economy. would not: we describe this as a bubble economy. we have relatively weak global growth that the u.s. economy has been doing well and domestic strength has been propelling us forward in spite of the fact that we are suffering a drag from the global economy. >> how many years ahead are you
looking? 20 years. it will be bigger than the united states economically as well as in population. and you look that far ahead. becomes an international currency will reflect an opening in the chinese economy which will probably be good for the world. sense that no expansion will die of old age. recession is a risk every year. the we cannot forecast it, there is no reason to think that just because we have been seven years in recovery, it does not mean that we are due for another recession. >> the data that i have seen is that productivity slowed down across the globe and is a function of the fact that capital investment is pretty everywheretty much
has slowed down to a significant extent and as a percentage of gdp has been dramatically lower than it has been historically. a function -- our function should be, and i agree that monetary policy should not have the whole load of getting us out of this phenomenon -- it is fundamentally a fiscal problem. spending money only increases the debt. manus: let us bring in michael franken. welcome to the show. there are no bubbles. a bit of a drag from china. a constant threat of recession. what a huge voice of wisdom amongst them all. here is their performance. in terms of equities and in terms of bonds. there you go. like a torch from 2008. quantitative easing -- a blessing to the equity world.
set to continue? for janet yellen is she is so frightened of making a sharp move which will unsettle so many things at the moment. she does not have control over commodity pricing which are having a big impact. there are other things she does not have control over. central bankers have tried so hard to save us from the last recession that they do not want to mess it up now that that is not to say that they won't. manus: what is the biggest risk? policy misstep? or not finishing through with the credibility? >> that is the chicken and egg question. you move up to soon coming you kill off the growth. you leave it to cover the inflation. i am not sure in will be a
problem for quite a long time. manus: we have the fed funds target. all the way back to paul volcker. he demolished inflation. it were marching in the streets in terms of the reality of doing that and the unemployment. and then greenspan. i have a personal relationship with greenspan. he went my bond portfolio strategy. he annihilated me. look at the lockstep. the escalator steps. caution thatisk of the fed does not want us to think will happen again. if she is to do anything here, it would be to avoid the greenspan errors. >> it is about to fly up to the -- ins in some way cap terms of how you will react to how things will develop. you have the central banks chasing the economy and the markets chasing the central
banks. no one knows quite how it will pan out. you do get mismatches between the policy. manus: you think monetary policy is said and done? we are getting less bang for our monetary policy buck. >> i think it is inevitable. basically makeo the changes gradually. a bit like is, it is the analogy with a frog in the boiling water. you gradually increase the heat and the frog dies. if the frog goes into the hot water, it jumps rate out again. that is the theory. we have slowing growth, very gradual. i think central banks have a difficult job. we saw from the minutes earlier this week that basically now, it is 9-17 of the members actually indicated that they thought
there would be two increases. warned aboutave the dollar and global risk. 20 references -- it takes us back to know bazooka. rates back in its 2006. terms of anyone just turn -- tuning in. ecb goes negative. we had a reprieve. we had a panicked moment. of problems is central bankers don't know how the markets will react or how mainstreet will react. they can put money into the system but you has seen how many corporate have accumulated funds that have not gone into reinvestment. it is like the situation in the ecb. mario draghi is still pumping money into that. we will pick this up
manus: fed times for. yellen, bernanke, greenspan taking to the stage and in the store conversation. historic conversation. >> i certainly wouldn't describe this as a football economy. we have relatively weak growth, but the u.s. economy has been doing well. manus: a rocky ride on the currency markets. a driven by a at surgeon you -- at a five-year high, driven by a surge in yen. panama paper pressure.
david cameron admits that he did have a stake in an offshore fund set up by his father. on the cellblock, verizon is said to plan on offer for yahoos web business including, its japanese are, sending shares soaring in tokyo. welcome to welcome to "countdown." therts are rising by 1.3%, market anticipated a rise of one 1/2 of 1%. of the balance comes in at 23 billion euros for february. the estimate was for a trade balance of 18 billion.
exporting more, that is certainly good news. for traded ballots beating analyst estimates in terms of the import side of the equation. imports rose by 4/10 of 1%. of the market had anticipated a contraction of 3/10 of 1%. that is the german trade data. what's going on in the equity market as we check in across the board? you have rising equity markets in europe. stoxx 50.1% on the even though there is a real question at the moment in terms of what happens at the central bank. janet yellen was reasonably bullish in terms of her view on the market last night. we're set for a higher opening in europe, indicators a little bit higher . week, we have seen a nice
rally on oil. the focus should be more on u.s. production, the decline of u.s. production for the 11th week. that will trump any brent above $40 per barrel, but where is the money flowing? it's into bonds. two weeks in bonds back-to-back moving. what's going on? money going into bonds -- is the market getting ready for something more germanic in terms of concern about the market? -- more dramatic in terms of concerned about the bond market? it's had its best quarterly gain in a number of months. msci is often not should down. the yen, as the rally runs its course. 2:00 yesterday in new york, the dollarhe low for and the high for the yen. what comes next?
intervention? in the meantime, let's get you the first word news. kumutha: good morning. david cameron has revealed he had a stake in an offshore fund set up by his late father until six years ago. it is the first time he has answered the question of whether he ever benefited from the investment. he spoke to itv. >> samantha and i had a joint account. we had 5000 units in an investment trust which we sold in january, 2010. that was worth something like 30,000 pounds. i paid income tax on the dividends, but there was a profit on it less than the capital gains tax allowed. but it was subject to all the u.k. taxes. kumutha: credit suisse has told employees to avoid discussing the so-called brexit before the u.k. referendum in june. the bank wants staff to stay
away from events where the issue might be raised and not to talk about it in public. eu business figures in london warned that overseas banks would move elsewhere if britain voted to leave the bloc. singapore has overtaken hong kong as the world's number three , accordingelp ub to a pool of more than 200,000 service professionals. it effects key competitive areas, including business environment and infrastructure. president nicolas maduro has designated every friday in april and may as nonworking holiday, in a bid to save electricity as a prolonged drought pushes water levels to a critical threshold at hydro generation plants. the announcement comes after he shut down the country over the easter holiday, giving workers
three additional days off. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. you can find more stories at top . manus: thank you. let's look over to yvonne man. when we look at the asian equity markets, the question on everybody's mind is where they go in reaction to what the bank of japan might do. topix andg at the nikkei -- they make it some reprieve. yvonne: yeah. and we would like to see that turnaround. in the last two hours, we ended the day up. 1/2 a percent on the tokyo stocks. that has helped avoid the regional benchmark declines, but it has been risk off all throughout the morning, particularly in shanghai, down 1%, extending losses. a lot of data to digest next week -- inflation, gdp all
coming up. we saw some green this week when he came to china pmi showing expansion. also we did see reserve rising for the first time in five months. overall, we are seeing most markets in the red. you did mention the japanese yen; that's helping equities. the aussie dollar is seeing a surge as the oil price surges as well. flight to safety -- we are seeing that in terms of the gold producers after they had the best we can be month. 5%;ng in sydney up eucharist up 2.5%. -- this is the announced honda is
recalling 140,000 vehicles after one of its airbag inflator's failed to deploy, injuring a driver. and fast retailing taking a tanking, 12% down after it cut its annual forecast for a second time, this time by on1/3. yvonne thank you,. have a great weekend; thanks for the wrapup. let's turn our attention to israel. the gas fields could help europe diversify its fuel supplies away from russia, if the u.s. energy s so.tary say ss he spoke exquisitely to elliott gotkine. good day. there has been a lot of talk about the benefits of israel exporting natural gas, but not a lot of action -- and i know because i did a survey 30 years ago. elliott: that's right. israel is already receiving some of the benefits, but when it comes to the big 1 -- the $20
--lion for example things are in a bit of a limbo. there was a 10 year moratorium on changes to the regime governing them. the supreme court threw it out. secretaryergy said the clearing of this can be resolved for a mannea number of reasons in a timely manner. >> first and foremost, there is a very clear economic energy security benefit to producing the field, but given the fact that it would appear to be a substantial resource and export, i certainly think that can be used in a strategic way. whether it is egypt are turkey or jordan or other customers, a nd again, companies which are
going to be engaged in this or other, future fields -- clearly, one has to hope there are even more reservoirs in the israeli waters. they're clearly going to want to understand the opportunities for e can, markets and thos indeed, be viewed in a bigger context, particularly -- as one example, if the east mediterranean gas could find its way to turkey to join up to the southern power which is being developed to take caspian gas to europe, that also plays into the supplies to europe, and diversifying supply away from russia for europe. a major issueis in terms of how the natural gas market develops and certainly, with geostrategic and
geopolitical implications. elliott: one of the big concerns about the israel gas is that there is a time element. egypt recently made a very large find, and iran is coming back as well. speaking of iran, we discussed the iran nuclear deal in which the secretary played a key role for the u.s. delegation. he say premise or netanyahu was ensuringt proponent, that it is implemented and verified. we also talked about the oil minister meeting in doha. he seemed skeptical that the iranians are going to come to the table and agreed to freeze output when they are trying to build it up. he iso talked to -- quite skeptical about the prospects for the overall parent
company having an ipo. under 5% of the parent company would have an initial public offering, possibly as earliest we 17. manus: elliott, thank you. elliott gotkine from tel aviv. michael franklin is still with me. michael, i just wonder -- dollar drops, oil pops. i hate the cliche, but it's true. dollar doha, u.s. oil production, as you said and look at the three of them, which is the most important thing to you in driving the oil prices? >> it's probably got to be doha. i am not expecting a lot to come out of it. y are at record levels. >> yes, in this situation with the u.s. stocks dropping -- we are talking about four days -- manus: it's production in the
u.s. -- if you put that into context of the year, we are talking about $9.5 billion down to $9 billion. people are telling me that u.s. production dropping is an important aspect. >> absolutely. if you actually take on board the idea that global growth is slowing, and logically, demand for oil could slow as well. not necessarily, but you would expect it to. if that is the case, on the demand side of the equation, you don't expect to see oil going higher. unless they come production, i don't -- cut production, i don't think they will get higher prices. manus: dollar-jan. the whole world is absorbed with when will and will the bank of japan -- we have had this discussion through the morning. this is a germanic rally in ye -- a dramatic rally in yen. he says intervention won't happen -- what do you think?
>> it's a big problem for the japanese economy because this has been a cornerstone of the abe approach and you start to do to what else they can get that currency softer. . manus: what would it take, in your opinion? does it take a form of fiscal relief? does it have to be stimulus? monetary stimulus? , if youroblem is stimulate, then conceivably you would make more demand. i don't recall that carry trade is interesting on that position, because they are bringing in interest rates that are very attractive, presumably. at the moment, i cannot see with a can do unless they taken a stage further -- take it a stage further.
the comments come as the fed chair joins her three predecessors in a panel discussion in new york. it is the first time they have all appeared together. she said inflation and employment remain key indicators, deflating the pace of future -- >> we don't have a goal for the dollar. the we are looking at is economy as a whole and the likely paths for inflation and employment to achieve our goals. manus: the look for the economy and file it says, it's time for this year's dirty workshop, getting underway in italy. high-profile figures from across the spectrum, including finance ministers, ceo's, and leading economists. one of those is the author of
"the escape from the balance sheet recession and the qe trap." he's also a chief economist, joining us from a beautiful backdrop. welcome to "countdown." janet yellen says things are on a solid course, and she doesn't regret raising rates in december. my very first question to you is this -- was it a policy mistake by the fed to raise rates? >> i don't think so. qe central bank that did the will have to move faster than the central banks that didn't do the qe when the economy is showing signs of life. if the central bank didn't do a you just wait until the economy is strong enough and you can gradually raise rates, but if a central bank that the qe and if $2.3 trillion of
-- that'ss weren't enough to increase money supply by 16 times -- we are looking at 1600% inflation. when the private sector starts recovering, the fed will have to act sooner instead of later, and we already saw that when the fed started papering. the inflation rate was only 1.1%. and when the fed raised interest rates, it went up to 1.3%. all of it suggests -- messaget seems -- the from janet yellen seems to be that she doesn't trust this inflation data will hold and continue to rise. that seems to be the concern, doesn't it? >> well, i think they are looking at something far more long-term, and that is that if the private sector comes back to borrow money, which the private sector in the u.s. hasn't done
yet, then the fed will be forced into what janet yellen calls the abrupt tightening, or what stanley fischer calls the big mess. they want to avoid that at all costs. if they would make a mistake, they would rather be too early instead of too late. manus: how worried are you about global growth? we caught up with christine lagarde; she warned of a new mediocre earlier. there are concerns about u.s. growth rates, concerns about the lack of inflation in the world. what concerns you the most in the growth story? within the developed world, there's very little private sector borrowing, even at these ridiculously low interest rates. even in the united states, the private sector as a group, including corporate sector, household sector, they are saving something like 5% gdp at near zero interest rates. the same thing is happening in
the eurozone, in japan. all these people feel very uncomfortable with their balance sheets, and even at these ridiculously low rates, they are not borrowing money, which is the reason we don't have inflation. for inflation to really take off, money supply has to grow. when you look at the money supply of all of these countries, they're growing very slowly. manus: which brings me, richard, to the issue of the european central bank. if we look at what mario draghi and his cohorts have done at their last meeting, they have gone after lending, specifically to boost and bolster lending to the real economy, it would appear, at the expense of chasing any kind of currency drop. so what do you make of that? is that the right policy? would you encourage that policy? has draghi got it right?
yesterday he said that the ecb doesn't surrender to excessively low-inflation. is this the right policy? more of that, or would you say more negative rates, richard? >> none of the above. all these policies the central bank is putting in -- not just the ecb, but the fed as well -- they have to help the lenders when the money. end money. but the borrowers are missing and when the borrowers are missing there is little they can do. borrowers are still not comfortable with their balance sheets, and until they become comfortable, they are not coming back to borrow. in the meantime, what government has to do -- they have to be a borrower of last resort to make sure all the saved funds are put back into the income stream.
manus: so how much fiscal stimulus -- is that the road? and if so, who should be the vanguard? is that what will turn around the deflation story in japan? is that what abe should be focused on, mr. draghi should be focused on pushing governments to do? >> well, we can see that in the united states, we have ben bernanke, janet yellen issuing strong warnings about falling off the fiscal cliff, because two persons understood that if people are not borrowing money for balance sheets reasons, then the government has to keep the economy going, and that is why the u.s. is doing better than the rest . in the case of japan, you have the fiscal stimulus, and you might have to strengthen that in the short run because private sector is still not borrowing money 25 years after reversing
the level. we need to work on the trauma issues. when people go through this long period of paying down debt, they don't want to borrow money at all. americans who lived the great depression never borrow money until they die. europe isopean case, far behind everyone else in that the government is prohibited from borrowing because of the anyty, which doesn't make accommodation for this type of recession. manus: richard, thank you very much for joining us. i hope you get a little warmer. from the newer research institute. we have a feast on bloomberg for other day. we bring you guessed from the adversary workshop. roubini, an exclusive with j.p.
guy: welcome to "on the move." we are counting it down to the european open this friday. i'm guy johnson alongside hans nichols in germany. intervention watch. the japanese getting ready to step in if the yen sees a surged 105. the fed four. yellen, bernanke, greenspan, and boca head to the stage in an historic conversation. certainly wouldn't describe this as a bubble economy.