tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg April 8, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT
carol: good afternoon, everybody. i'm carol massar. here's what we are watching at this hour. a flat year for u.s. equities as we discuss where markets are headed and how the fed rate hikes might play out. then a bidding war for yahoo!, verizon and google are said to be in the race for the company's web business. corporate america kicks off earnings season next week with alcoa. how much squeezed margins and overleveraged profit. from thee hour away close of trading on this friday. let's kick it off with ramy inocencio. we started off with a rally but move down a bit. ramy: we are headed towards session lows right now. it's been a general decline throughout this whole entire trading session of the week, making a u-turn from yesterday's losses.
let's look at where the numbers stand right now. the s&p 500 the biggest gainer .up -- gainer the nasdaq has been flirting with negative territory in the flat line. it's up minimally right there. let's take a look at what's happening with currencies as well, in particular with the u.s. dollar and the japanese yen. kinds been a very seesawed of day, a volatile kind of day for the currency. you can see that a weekend over the course of today's trading session. we started hit right back where we started, around the late morning hour or so. a bit of more weakening and that's where we stand right now, one dollars will get you 108 yen. let's also pop into my bloomberg, and i want to show you the sector health of the s&p's 10 sectors, this is the imap function. eight out of the 10 sectors of the s&p are trading positively,
energy has been the biggest leader all day, up. 2% materials up 1%. now, talking about energy, i want to talk about oil, and see where that has gone. we are seeing it back up near the highs of the day, up by more than 6%. close up byack to more than 6% there. there is hope in global production, potentially being frozen by opec member countries, and that could come out as early as may be seven or eight days from now. we will have to wait and see on that, carol. carol: when we start off with a rally, we kind of start to come undone. i really like the imap ramy: function. ramy:ramy: -- function. a lot of names to talk about, in fact. take a look at the consumer threshold, down 2/10 of 1%.
let's look at the biggest laggard on the s&p in terms of retail. right now is seeing a decline of 13% or so. it had been as low as 14%, same-store sales fell 6% in march. the expectation from analysts was that would be 5%, and i means inventories piling up as well. i'm going to show you a bunch of other retailers getting downgraded by jpmorgan. jpmorgan saying bearing her incrementally cautious because they are cutting their first quarter cop sales to street lows across the board grade -- board. carol: let's get a check of the headlines. mark crumpton has more from our news desk. mark: bernie sanders is backing away from an earlier suggestion that hillary clinton isn't qualified to be president. appearing in nationally broadcast interviews, senator
sanders defended speaking out harshly against mrs. clinton, fight quote, we've got to back. when asked whether she was qualified for the white house, sanders said of course, and that mrs. clinton on her worst day would still be an infinitely better candidate than anyone on the republican side. an associated press poll finds 55% of americans say they have a negative opinion of hillary clinton. nearly one half of registered voters say they would at least consider voting for mrs. clinton, while 63% say they would never vote for mr. trump. a senior u.s. official says an airman shot his commander in an apparent mood or-suicide at the u.s. air force base in san antonio, texas. two handguns were found near the bodies of the men. officials stressed the shooting was not an act of terrorism. the fbi is leading the investigation. suspect in the paris
attacks was arrested and belgium today. french police officials say the deadlys linked to the march 22 bombings and brussels. the suspect identified is believed to be the mysterious man in the hat who escaped the double bombing at the airport. if true, that would mean the man had a key role in both attacks carried out by islamic state that left a total of 162 people dead, 130 in paris, and 32 and brussels. global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i am mark crumpton. carol, back to you. carol: u.s. stocks have been bouncing between gains and losses all week long. the s&p 500 trading in a narrow range, about 12% above the february lows. what do you think from a valuation standpoint? about 12% above the 10 year
average, as we head into what is expected to be a rough earning season. what is an investor to do? joining us is the chief market advisor at russell investments. it's not going to look good, and it's not just energy earnings. >> it will be a negative quarter. that would be three consecutive quarters with a negative sign on that. there is some bleed into other sectors. i think it will be an earnings headwinds going into summer. carol: what's going on right now? position, in this considering all the easy monetary policy we have had for a decade? number of waysa of looking at it. we break it up into 3 distinct categories. we look at the economic cycle, we look at sentiment and momentum in the markets, and we look at valuations. if you look at the u.s., it's been a pretty good seven-year run.
we had a flat year last year. we think this will be flattish in u.s. equities. we are advising investors is to say, even though the economy is ok, you have the earnings challenge. in these evaluations you want to look global, you want to look at areas where valuations are not so challenging. carol: in terms of the u.s. markets, are we taking a pause? or will things get worse from here? guest: from this point it is a flattish u.s. equity market. in our opinion, there's going to be a lot of volatility. think it's going to be more of a flattish year, not dissimilar from 2015. carol: you like europe, and you like japan. why europe? valuations have improved recently. i think this is a false choice of a lot of u.s. space
investors. i do a lot of work internationally. in the u.s. there is a default position, the false choice between u.s. stocks or cash. if we were to give an assessment that would we are underweight or not terribly positive on u.s. stocks,, the investment might say, should i not be in cash? the quantitative easing and negative interest rates are going to be stimulative to policies. carol: they are behind us a few years. how long will it take for europe to get back on track? will it be a tougher move to the upside? the euroom the macro, currency, it will be a while. the european central bank is pulling the only liver there. in the meantime, you look at a year that is a lot more like 110 and less like 160 or 170. equities like free money coming from the central bank. they will be in that regime for a while.
even the macro could have some issues. the cycle is beginning. the european central bank we think will create a fertile ground for equity investments. carol: what about a brexit? how does that impact stuff? steve: that will be a tough vote as well. i think right now it will add to the volatility. an important part of that is going to be brexit. even if a brexit were to pass, you would be looking at a multiyear full employment for lawyers act coming out. what does that mean? how do you define that? it's not that you just wake up one day and then europe is magically separated from great britain, or the eu. that is a process. a big part of it is leveraged that the prime minister wants to get more concessions out of the european union for british interests. like japan, secondly.
they can't be happy with what has been happening at this point. steve: that will be part of the challenge. the european central bank will be easing for a while, as have the japanese. when you look at some of the thers they can pull, currency will be there go to story. i think the bank of japan will be in quantitative easing. they too are in negative interest rates right now. when an investor looks globally, the fed is more or less at zero. that will be over the next year, year and a half. europe is zero to negative. you need to find yield where it exists. carol: how patient do you need to be in that environment? steve: very patient. carol: what is patient? steve: i would be looking for a multiyear horizon in japan. we need the abenomics to take root. you need a multiyear time horizon, but i think for people with a multi-decade of
experience, it's interesting for the first time in a long time there are opportunities -- carol: we talk about japan or europe. in terms of europe, how do you want to play it? steve: i would think we would be looking north of the alps, north of the pyrenees. germany still looks very interesting. it is a country that disproportionately benefits. low interest rates, the deposits have fled out of the mediterranean banks are going to germany, so there is a disproportionate benefit to the current situation. we would be looking at chemicals, pharmaceuticals. think the trade into china from germany looks healthy. carol: one less question for you. drilldown in japan, where do you want to play in japan? sensitive, and where there are opportunities from a profitability perspective
to see some changes. germany andnated by japan, expert oriented, currency sensitive, i think the european central bank, they will hit the accelerator for some time. carol: don't forget about lsewhere from the u.s. have a great weekend, steve. steve russell -- steve wood joining us. 70% of hedge funds globally produce positive returns last month. a quick check on the markets. you can see the s&p and dow just a little bit of a gain, a pretty much at their session lows. much at their session lows. oil climbing more than 6%, the most in six weeks. we have a mixed market.
carol: you are watching "bloomberg markets." it is time for the bloomberg business flash. qlogic corporation hired catalyst partners to four strategic alternatives, including a potential sale. adapters, switches, and other technology for data centers and network infrastructure. the company's market value is about $1 billion. energy drawing takeover interests from the rival. suitors with the
biggest electric utility in kansas included an investor consortium made of infrastructure management and the investment board. billionaire john paulson positive and's in hedge funds covering 15% in the first quarter. a person familiar with the matters is almost 1/2 of losses occurring in the month of march, paulson manages the advantage and advantage. that is your business flash update. having a tough march. it has not been a good month for hedge funds. let's bring in kathy burton, who broke this story on bloomberg. he did not have a great march. kathy: no, nor a great beginning of the year. carol: is he alone? kathy: it's been a strange year. there was a report that came out today saying 70% of hedge funds need money in march, and yet
we've seen some very disastrous march numbers. carol: talk about his investments and why he maybe had such a tough march. he has about a billion and a half dollars worth of allergan and a billion three in valeant. valeant has been down 74% in the quarter, so that hurts. carol: it has not been an easy environment for some time. why has it gotten so tricky for many of these investors? kathy: in the beginning of the year, stocks fell. people took off risk, and then we had a huge rebound in march. if you missed putting risk back on, you did not get to make up any of what you had lost. carol: the wrong side of the bat, right?
70% in terms of hedge funds have done ok in march. kathy: yes, that's what the figures said. i think that smaller funds -- it seems the bigger funds have not done well at all. larry robbins had a tough time. a lot of the people that are big into valeant have gotten hurt. carol: certainly some of these bigger funds are well known individuals with a great track record. some of these smaller funds, are they more nimble? kathy: yes, that is definitely some of the issue, especially because of these big guys are very concentrated. carol: what does it mean in terms of money coming out of these funds? we have overall seen money in the fourth quarter come out a bit. it was the first negative inflow since 2011. got smarthese funds
after 2008 and realized they needed to lock up money. either they have gates that only let you out, quarter or other things that keep it -- not all the money is going to rush out. carol: what does it mean for paulson? what does it mean if this turns out to be a bad month, or it's a bad month and it turns out to be a bad year? he has already lost a lot of investors because over the past few years he's had some remarkably bad years. a lot of people came in after his really good year, thinking that would continue. he's lost many investors. a lot of the money now is his personal money. people have speculated that may be he would just close up and become a family office, which we have seen from a lot of
people. it doesn't really matter because he has so much of his own money, more than 50% is internal money. kathy, thank you so much. check out more on that story on bloomberg.com. still ahead, corporate earnings season beginning next week and it may not be pretty. why s&p 500 earnings are under pressure. ♪
carol: stocks trying to rebound after suffering their biggest drop in two months. biotech among the worst performers after recording its best day of gains in seven years wednesday. ramy inocencio standing by in the actions market. ramy: joining me is mark sebastian, managing partner. mark, thanks very much. markets are losing steam. it's been a volatile week all week. monday, tuesday we saw a downward trend. thursday down. on all ofur take this. what are you holding on to for guidance? mark: if you add up wednesday, today, and subtract yesterday, i end up with nothing. that's what it comes down to.
it seems like we were really up because of what happened in japan and the european markets and when the european markets closed, all the buyers went home and that's why the markets have softened up. if i was looking at things and saw wednesday and thursday and said, maybe i will go home flat, that's a lot of what you are seeing. there's not a lot of great reasons to go along over this i come, especially when in on sunday night i will get a good look at what's going on in asia. reset on monday of the last six weeks in terms of where we go from here. whether japan follows through with its rally and whether the yen does soften a little bit more during an open japanese session is going to be really important as to the direction next week takes. commodities at least were leading some of the rallies earlier today. oil up by 6%.
we are looking at potential freezes in production about seven or eight days from now. how confident are you that might happen? mark: i don't know. the reason to recognize why that correlation is breaking with the market is that the panic is over. if oil goes a little lower, the oil companies will go bankrupt, that will pull the financials lower. that scenario seems to have been discounted at this point, and that's why the correlation between the s&p 500 and the oil markets is broken. oil inventories are at their $10 higheroil is than where it was a month and a half ago. i think we are in the eighth or ninth inning of the commodity mess. ramy: let's get to your trade. you are looking at the financials. give it to me. been earnings have
completely sandbagged. i like the financials to be a leader after being off the last year or so, like jpmorgan calls. for about 2% of the cost of jpmorgan out in june -- 60 calls for 1.20, 1.30. do reallys could well. implied volatility is not that high in the name. may mean reversion in sector performance, and picking out the cream of the crop. ramy: thank you very much. managing director at the options pit at the cboe. carol: still ahead, earnings season getting underway. ♪
headlines. mark crumpton has more from our news desk. bernie sanders has closed the gap with hillary clinton in new york's primary to 18 points among likely voters. according to a poll by boston-based emerson college, mrs. clinton is at 56%, senator sanders at 38%. donald trump leads ted cruz 56% to 22%. john kasich is in third place at 17%. senator cruz heading more than -- moreon -- adding 12 than $12 million to his campaign coffers. officials don't say how much cash senator cruz has on hand right now. court, thefederal government pressing ahead with a demand that apple help it crack into a drug dealer's iphone. it is appealing a ruling in apple's favor. the decision to appeal comes after the fbi successfully
gained access to the iphone of one of the san bernardino .hooters without apple's help it has become the pivotal case regarding privacy rights. spacex has another big launch plant. an unmanned falcon rocket is set to take off a little over an hour from now. the company's spacecraft will attempt to deliver a large hall of supplies to the international space station, including an inflatable model that may one day be used for space hotels. it will be spacex's first station delivery since a launch accident halted shipments last june. global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i'm mark crumpton. carol? closing 29ets minutes from now. abigail doolittle live at the nasdaq with the latest. a very different market we saw this morning versus what we see this afternoon. had al: this morning we
strong market, the nasdaq up by nearly 1% greatly late morning the nasdaq turned red. now we have the nasdaq lower once again. the index right now on pace to finish the week down by more rally.5%, suggesting the off the february lows starting to spider a bit. the biggest drag on the nasdaq --s month today the stock is down more as did today is reporting anonymous sources are saying that publishers saw facebook drop -- traffic dropped by 20% in the first quarter. some consistency there between those two reports. the stock is below its 10 day moving average, suggesting momentum may be turning bearish. one of the biggest winners on the week is tesla. shares are higher by 5% on a spectacular launch of the
company's model three. the company reported they did taken preorders for 325,000 vehicles in the first week on the reservations for those preorders and deposits for those preorders, the company raised more money than they did in their 2010 ipo's. huge turnaround for this stock, i one point was down 40% on the year. the long-term chart suggests we could see tesla trade back towards its all-time record high share. per carol: if we look at today -- the nasdaq on pace to end lower. biggest liger on the nasdaq? viacom, the worst percentage performer this week for the nasdaq 100, down 8%. stockr this week, downgraded to a neutral from a b uy.
they're also technical challenges. therzer trading back below 50 day moving average, suggesting we could see the sellers continue to pressure shares of viacom. so farviacom down 6% this year. sticking with the markets, earnings season adding underway next week. for companieshare in the s&p 500 could fall almost 10% year over year. that is the sharpest decline a fourth straight quarter of contraction. u.s. banks will be one of the most closely watched groups led by jpmorgan, bank of america, wells fargo, and citigroup. is not going to be a good earning session -- season. >> no. when you consider what you showed people in the chart, it's worse now a week later than it
was when the chart was put together. analysts looking for a 10% drop, based on estimates for individual companies. the difference this time around as opposed to the last three quarters, it's not just energy this time. you take energy out of the equation, you are still looking at a 5% drop in earnings. carol: what are some of the hardest hit groups? abigail: you mentioned the financial -- david: you mentioned the financial stocks. 15% decline expected for the s&p 500 financials index. by the time we get through the big four, jpmorgan, bank of america, wells fargo, citigroup, we will have a pretty good idea of how things start looking. the industrial companies, 11% decline there, a lot of that is tied into the dollar's strength and the weakness in the world economy as opposed to the u.s. economy. there are the resource companies, energy and raw materials. carol: what about consumer
discretionary and staples? david: consumer discretionary category, that great catchall which is everything for media companies to retailers, that is one area of strength. then you have the phone companies, a relatively small piece of the s&p 500 puzzle. projections for 12% increase in first-quarter profits. carol: you look at these numbers all the time. analysts lowering the bar is pretty typical as we head into it? david: absolutely. there's a cycle that goes on. the numbers come down. the analysts lower the bar so the companies can step over them. carol: companies have gotten so smart and managing earnings. well: investors know full how this process works. there was a report out today, and there strategists basically
saying, we should see companies of beats estimates by the usual amount, but who cares? stocks have been up for almost two months now. you have to figure that a lot of that gain is based on the idea that they are going to beat estimates. is it that mayly be analysts are two negative at this point? david: you can make that case. given the magnitude to which numbers came down as the quarter progresses. we went into the first quarter and we are looking for earnings 1%hold up ok, 1/2 of increase. biggest drop in seven years. beyond that, you look at what the anticipation is for the rest of the year. that's when the recovery begins. renewed growth in the third, and something like 10% in the fourth. you could argue they are setting
themselves up for a recovery. carol: next week it is all about the banks. we know there's been a ton of stories on bloomberg, really reducing expectations. david: there are a couple of key points. the federal reserve did not raise rates the way a lot of people expected. for the banks that meant they could not raise their loan rates, they could not earn as much there. beyond that, they look at investment banking. we have heard company after company. before you go, 24 hours ago we were talking about how verizon, google, and a bunch of others were interested in some of yahoo!'s web apps. verizon and google we are watching very closely, the more than likely potential hookups with yahoo!. the market telling us anything about how this might play out? you aref anything saying -- let's get it over
with. yahoo! has been trying to figure out how to do it yourself for months. they have the stake in yahoo! japan, then they have their main business. they thought of spinning off the alibaba stake. an element of -- can we break up this company already? we will see how it plays out. thank you so much for breaking all of that down. coming up next, the canadian loonie is surging. a look at what it means to the economic plan of the country's prime minister. as we head to a break, belgian prosecutors speaking at a news conference in brussels. a suspect in the terror attacks in paris -- back in november he was arrested. they also say he was with the paris attacks letters ahead of the paris attacks. -- plotters ahead of the paris attacks. ♪
carol: we are just about 18 minutes away from that closing bell. averagesr market pretty much at their lows of the session. we are down 1 1/2 points. 1% on the nasdaq. you can see the s&p 500. the big thing is, after a rally for most of the day, we're pretty much on our lows of the session. negative interest rates are one of the most controversial tools that central bankers have at their disposal. earlier today bloomberg's alix
steel and scarlet fu asked mohamed el-erian for his take on how negative rates are playing out in japan. us theyen is telling bank of japan has got into a point where its experimental policies are not just ineffective, but counterproductive. there's a nation for that. beyond a certain point, it's no longer interest-rate differential, but it is stocks of foreign assets. happens,look at what versus the dollar-yen -- you can see as the boj went negative, you have rates falling into negative territory. boj,u feel that means the no matter what they do now, will be ineffective? >> i do. i think they have gone beyond the point of effectiveness. the risk has become
counterproductive in the sense that the more they try to push interest rates negative, the more they end up strengthening currency because people disengage from the financial system. that is one of the unintended consequences of negative interest rates, and one of several, unfortunately. scarlet: let's expand on that and talk about what kind of lesson the yen's strength in the face of these negative interest rates mean for europe. what should there take away be? away is thatt take it is time for a handoff in policies. unfortunately, this is not an economic issue. this is a political issue. what we've seen this week on the political front means this handoff is even harder. alix: it's going to be hard for andboj to look at the yen
stomach it. i been reading things about the potential of helicopter money coming in, much more aggressive easing coming into the market and buying even more stuff to help prop it up. do you feel like alternative measures are on the table? >> they could be. central banks are like doctors. even if they don't have the right medication, they will not walk away from the patient. the boj may be trying to do even more in terms of negative interest rates, but i suspect they will find out this will be even more counterproductive. the question is not willingness to do more. like a doctor, he will always be willing to treat the patient. its ability to get desired outcomes, and that is very much in doubt. we turn now to canada, where the economy has been under pressure from falling oil prices. we could be seeing signs of a rebound.
the positive surprise making it less likely the bank of canada will move to cut rates this year. for more on this is the bloomberg editor joseph -- editor, joe weisenthal. their equivalent of our jobs report they came out this friday. very strong unemployment rate. 40,000 jobs created. sector, them private full-time. we saw a big rally right away in the canadian dollar, the loonie. suddenly people are talking about, has canada turned a corner in some way. that plays into the expectations for what the central bank in canada will do. they have a meeting coming up. one expects a no hike anytime soon. a cut looks unlikely. it's going to be a long time
before anyone says confidently that the economy is on the mend. it is interesting what the new trudeau ends -- administration, was talked about more expansionary fiscal policy, this could be an interesting test to see how quickly canada rebounds. people are really negative on canada at the beginning of the year. this isn't the only data better than expected. carol: their economy is so reliant on that. joe: they have been hurt by the downturn in commodity prices. they also have a lot of anxiety about their real estate situation. major cities in some of the real -- highest real estate in the world -- maybe so far things are not as bad as they could have been. carol: is everyone doing the caveat of this is one report, so let's be careful? joe: there has been other economic data better than expected. you don't want to take a few weeks worth of data and start extrapolating too far.
about you are talking fiscal policies. what specifically are they looking to do to get more juice in the economy? whenin the beginning trudeau was campaigning, he talked about a balanced budget and not running a large deficit. it appears they are going to let that go. one thing that's interesting about canada from my perspective is its economy and financial markets tend to track a lot of emerging markets. it is commodity oriented, export oriented, tied to china in many exports.to the if canada is improving -- we have also seen improvements in other emerging market data. maybe this is a sign for the entire world, not just canada. carol: you have heard from janet yellen -- joe: that's right. one of the interesting things is -- janet yellen -- the fed would
like to see more fiscal policy. that will never happen because of gridlock in d.c. the ecb would like to see more fiscal policy. it's not going to happen in the u.k. because they have a conservative government opposed to it. japan, who for some reason they are talking about raising tax.es -- taxes. maybe canada will be the test. wiesenthal, thank you. much appreciated. coming up, the close of trading is moments away. let's take a look at your major averages. the dow a little bit higher, up about 17 points. we are moments away from that closing bell. nasdaq fell about three points. each offor averages, 1.5%. ♪
s&p as well as the nasdaq, these are the biggest weekly fall since the first week of february. itsor the dow, it is biggest fall since the first week of february. the past seven or eight weeks we have not seen this negativity. wednesday we did see an fomc rally. let's take a look at some currencies and commodities. yen.a look at the japanese over the course of the week, the japanese yen has strengthened against the u.s. dollar, up by 3% there. also with oils and gold -- let's take a look at that. both seeing their biggest weekly jump since the first week of march. on the whole, a negative sentiment with lower equities as well as higher goals. carol: let's get more on today's markets as we head to the close. joining us is our bloomberg stocks reporter. two days of 1% decline, one day of 1% to the upside? down, 1% up, and 1%
down again. there's 15 days without a 1% at all. sentiment is that we are breaking out of our malaise a little bit. we been in a sideways market for the past couple of weeks. the bulls and bears are flexing their muscles in either direction. week down.e does it tell you that people are kind of marking time a little bit, waiting for earnings? >> one of the big barricades to the market right now, earning start next week. next week we have all: kicking off earnings on monday and then we dive in head bank earnings on wednesday. that is supposed to be one of the hardest hit sectors.
energy will be presumably terrible. financials are supposed to be down 13% year-over-year on an earnings growth basis. it's going to be a real test right away. carol: you all have been watching what's going on with the short interest. what do the levels tell us about where the markets go from here? >> that is one of the big bull cases of the market right now, the case that there are these bears clinging on to their skepticism of the markets. my colleague had a really good story about it. it's very significant. aat people are thinking -- frequent guest of the show has said that we will see retail investors pile in and filing in behind the institutional investors that push the market up. once that happens, they have to unwind some of the shorts and that might send the market even higher. carol: that is kind of what help
support their story. .> that is their fallback it's really going to be a test next week and it kicks off on monday. carol: strong yen also helps out the bears? >> yeah. yen rises, it kind of screws that up. it's kind of like the currency stock equivalent of a short squeeze. carol: thank you so much for breaking it down. that will do it for "bloomberg markets." the market close coming your way in just a moment. look at the major averages, less than four minutes before the close. ♪
stocks closing mixed today. oils climbing the most in six weeks. >> the end reflects uncertainty on what catalyst and what things can reflect market. hikeand the canadian rate is most likely off the table, after a job report gave improvement for the oil in roberta. outcome.g into the ♪ >> we begin with market minutes. just ekingthe nasdaq out a gain. the s&p 500 and down to be back investment from earlier in the session. closing in the green for now. there are major groups rising, energy with oil rallying.