tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg April 8, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm EDT
stocks closing mixed today. oils climbing the most in six weeks. >> the end reflects uncertainty on what catalyst and what things can reflect market. hikeand the canadian rate is most likely off the table, after a job report gave improvement for the oil in roberta. outcome.g into the ♪ >> we begin with market minutes. just ekingthe nasdaq out a gain. the s&p 500 and down to be back investment from earlier in the session. closing in the green for now. there are major groups rising, energy with oil rallying. joe: today had a strong rally in
the beginning of the day. -- bounced back and it ended with a mixed day, but it was bigger at one point. alix: compared to the last three days, we saw the s&p 500 move by about 1%. digging deeper to what we have seen in the stock market, i have a chart for you. the s&p showing the equal weighted index, the orange line is the s&p and they are normalized and can see that the index is starting to outperform. this is a 2012 hi, that shows you that the market is expanding. and on the downside and the upside commit things moving more together, versus one or two stocks leading the rally. and for perspective, since february 11, every stock in the index is moving higher. this gives you a sense of how
ferocious you can see the rally on the upside, that is why we have seen these trends in the last few days. joe: and a quiet day for the debt front, we saw modest increases in the two year yield and the 10 year yield. the two year yield near 0.7, still pretty low, not very far off from the february low. pretty quiet. >> and in currencies, two big charts to take a look out. the -- surge in the most. the loony when the jobs report came out, much stronger than expected. the bank of canada was looking for thenterest rates meeting next week. and the story of the week, the yen. an incredible rally with the dollar and the ongoing downtown. -- down, and it down. it traded at 1.12 per dollar,
then it strengthened to 1.07 and it changed today. the bank of japan does not have to see this happen and everybody is wondering when it will intervene. the question for the ecb and fed, then what will happen next? alix: and looking at oil, a monster rally today. at one point, it got the most since february 12. you have the industry looking at about a oil rigs from the last week. it feels like there is optimism going into this meeting on the 17th which could be an oil freeze, but nobody is really taken it that seriously. it is really helping market psychology. >> those in the market minutes, now we will take a deep dive into the bloomberg. you can always use the function at the bottom of the screen for more. alix: i will get back on oil for one more hot second.
taking a look at personal consumption and consumer credit. this chart comes from bloomberg intelligence. basically, the takeaway is what -- wages. the economy this is consumer credit and you can see it rolling over just a little bit. basically, you have bad borrowers who cannot get loans, good borrowers do not want loans . on the flip side, you have personal consumption rising, but stalling out here over 3%. and the idea is is what will drive personal consumption has to be wages, not credit. noting that this gap may work. joe: definitely something to keep in mind ahead of the retail sales report for next week. and there is a lot of interest in the gdp tracker, especially over the last few months. everybody is looking at the atlanta fed, everybody saying that they take this data and recalculated and get in estimate
of where the deed to be looks -- gdp looks. q1 is not looking great. very low growth is what the atlanta fed is tracking. it does not feel like it has been that bad of a quarter, but this is what they are calculating. i put this with the two year yield, as you mentioned, that is down near the lows of the year, so perhaps a little more economic pessimism is being put into the market. something to keep an eye on, obviously. alix: and we saw a gap between , sods and the gdp trackers we were thinking, normal correlations making more sense. >> the question is, has a 10 year yield bottomed out for now? maybe, if you look at this chart. the pink line is isam and you can see the jump from this year. the blue line is the 10 year yield, 1.7% back the level that we saw in february and early
2015. it certainly has gone to that level before. over the past few years there has been a positive correlation, but there was a point in 2014 where the two did not match up. the market did not respond to the jump in new orders. points time, this was 70 lower. looking for to that cpi report next week. >> absolutely. alix: i want to bring in a guest, are bloomberg stocks editor, all over -- all over. week ins been a wild the market, china to make sense of all this, what have you learned about the relationship between the japanese yen and u.s. stocks, is one driving the other? guest: this is a highly debated topic right now. we put a chart out today looking at what happened to u.s. stocks when the yen rallied. you had the chart of earlier.
basically what it shows is there has been negativity in the s&p 500 when you have a big move in the end, it really depends on how much faith you have any idea of a carry trade existing. ,nd then a second leap of logic this extending to equity. if you believe it is something that people will do, that is something that hedge fund administers -- investors would do. somebody is not going to borrow currency for equity, that is not really makes sense. so it depends on whether or not you think that relationship exists. >> and take a look at the bloomberg, this is a chart that shows the s&p 500 moving on days when the yen gains 1%, you can see what happened at the end of 2005. and all of this on the heels of earnings season. joe: we will move it out of the these, because we are going to get micro. earning season is coming up, what are you looking at? guest: people are looking at a big decline, upwards of 9%.
the question is, everything has two sides, but the quest his whether or not, because the fact that revisions have not really moved in a positive direction, they have only gotten worse going into the quarter and those estimates are getting crazy right now, the biggest cuts its 2010 -- the point is, fundamentally these are not going to look good in terms of what committees are reporting for profits. in a trading perspective, that could give a boost because typically companies outperform and the fact that those estimates have come down far, that could be singling -- signaling that it is bad, or that there is a little hurdle and it is a good time to get into stocks. that could be the case for when things looked dire. >> may be managing down expectations. and in terms of where the s&p somebody was telling us
earlier this week that they were in a 50% range -- 15% range, and recently we will reach the high end and the low end of that. >> when you look at what has happened, despite a lot of turning the we are back where we started. is will and of this earnings drive this? this is a positive time to be an stocks, however i think that there are people who will say that moving higher on the worst quarter of earnings since the recession is not a good thing. alix: and this goes to show the rhetoric in the market, the q1 -- the orange line is lowered expectations for earnings for the s&p 500 coming into the first quarter. that is really about. but, by the fourth quarter, the purple line, we are back up. so is that what we are looking at? guest: you set me up for a table
which hopefully we have, but in interesting point. for the past year, when i've been talking to strategist, the conversational -- conversation is, in a couple of quarters things are going to get better. analystsprove what were thinking in june of 2015 about what would happen this quarter. they said that energy would be positive, 10% growth. industrials would be positive. the transitory effects would be positive. guess what, we are looking at energy down 100%, not even recorded on bloomberg. joe: one thing that struck me on that chart is, not just energy that is driving at lower. it is clearly the bulk. that is driving most of it. but it is materials, industrials, and tech, they are expected to be lower. this is broader than just energy. guest: yes, and that is why at the tech in there, you are dealing with discretionary stocks that people were very big
on for a long time. this has come off in the first quarter this year. a bit of a rebound, but the idea now that it is extending beyond energy, it obviously did not end and the fact that people are expecting to quarters from now, i have no reason that i will be the case. >> you would think that buybacks would be more important, so they could boost earnings as a result, so maybe that will be more important. more important in the actual forecast. guest: very true. a big source of demand is here. companies go in, by stock back, but unfortunately there is a debate about this. it kind of happens with poor timing. some companies do not have the best track record of buying their own shares. if you look at valuations, this rally has brought us back. if you take it out, looking at its acted earnings, things are getting better. there is not a lot of cheap stop on the market, so committees are
putting in about $100 billion per quarter with the buybacks, sharesy are buying back that are not very cheap right now and i do not think that you can see that enthusiasm for demand from either the institutional side of the market or even the retail side of the market. even the pullback of 7%, they do not see anything compelling from a price stand point. >> thank you. policymakersup, still see black in the labor nerdy, so we are getting on inflation, next. ♪
to be surging in the could go state of california. hillary clinton leads senator sanders 47% to 41%, according to a new poll, but the lead is only increasing 1% since january. sanders has jumped six points. the primary is in june. and a poll finds that 55% of americans say that they have a negative opinion of mrs. clinton, that is better than the 69% who find donald trump unfavorable, highlighting that the negative feelings americans have for both front runners. nearly half of registered voters say that they would consider voting for mrs. clinton, while 63% say they would never vote for mr. trump. november of in the paris attacks was arrested today in belgium, today's raid was linked to the deadly bombings in brussels. the suspect is believed to be the mysterious man in the hat that escaped the double bombing
at the airport. u.s. secretary of eight john kerry made an unannounced visit to baghdad, his first trip there in two years. following talks with the prime minister, the secretary pledged $155 million in aid. he also discussed the fight against the islamic state, saying that airstrikes are affecting the militants' cash flow. >> money that would have been used for terror has gone up in flames. it has been cut by half, the salaries of the fighters. dash is losing -- losing ground, leaders, fighters, cash. >> dash is the arabic name for the islamic state. he also reiterated u.s. support for iraq in their fight. day innews, 24 hours a
more than 150 news bureaus around the world. back to you. u.s. wage growth is not that great, so any rise in inflation may not hold up and it has made the fed skittish. the downside risk to inflation was discussed in the last meeting. but is this fear justified. we want to bring in an expert, michael ashton who is here now. he helped create a futures contract and he is the author of the book, what is wrong with money? is the fed's argument that growth is not that great so inflation may not be that great, true? guest: you know, listening to the fed chairman, the former chairman, last night. all of them -- it sounded to me like if you're going to london,
and you have not been there for some time, and you look to your left, take some steps and almost get hit by a car. joe: i almost got killed that way. guest: it happens to me every time. they are looking one direction, looking at inflation going down, but a car is about to hit them on the other side. joe: i want to go into the bloomberg, this chart i keep track of. it looks at different inflation measures, these are not the headlines. energy running over whichre cpix housing, excludes rent which we all know it looks to med like there are a lot of measures of inflation on the rise, why do people insist that there is no sense of inflation? guest: that is a great chart. they all seem to be going like that. even the headlines.
reasons that the fed has been fairly patient is because wages have not appeared to be rising. and even though wages follow inflation, if they are not rising then the idea that inflation will become feedingfeating -- self is something to be concerned about. scarlet: is there such a thing as good inflation and that inflation?-- bad guest: at the end of the day, i do not believe a lot in aggregate inflation. too much money in the system causes inflation. if you have really good growth, it could actually take any amount of money and if is -- diffuse it and cause less
inflation. look at the 1970's as one example. look at japan where you have weak inhat is very very the 1970's, and yet you had quite a bit of inflation. on the other hand, your portable growth in japan -- horrible growth in japan, and nowadays you have positive core inflation. so after years, you had deflation, but not horrible. so i think that the connection between aggregate demand and inflation only really hold at low levels. joe: so the critics of the fed, or some critics say that the mistake is this phillips curve framework, in which inflation is seen as a symptom of a solid economy. but by pointing to the 1970's, it sounds like you are saying that there is no real clear connection between a solid
economy and one that produces inflation. guest: phillips said that wage growth was related to the unemployment gap. he did not say that inflation was. economists say, a is the same thing, but if you look at ways growth versus unemployment, you get a nice connection. it is when you put that into --lation itself in the later itself, later and say that debt is related to inflation, that is where you have it. joe: we have a report coming out next week and economists are looking for a 2-3% raise with inflation, what are you looking at? guest: i think there is a chance , you get maybe4% .23 for the month over month, you will take off. that is fairly likely. alix: michael, good to have you. coming up, it could be in ugly
♪ scarlet: "what'd you miss?" -- first quarter earning season again next week. market had a volatile first quarter, so how was that show up? thanks to allison williams of the bloomberg intelligence for this chart, it shows how revenue in big banks has been grinding lower. quarterws the fourth tending to be flow and then getting a pickup but in 2015 it
has totaled $10.9 billion and a downtrend is consistent. in: there is a lot of spike this, but the trend is not look good for banks. scarlet: and the largest investment banks have only increased revenue by about 2/10 of 1%. joe: i am looking at another downtrend, but this is actually a really good one. something that i really want to take a look at and highlight, the jobless claims. one way i like to look at it, the moving average of nonseasonally adjusted claims so you get broad trends and they can exclude noise in us from week to week. the purple line is the average. there is another post crisis low for this week, the broad average of where we are going. it seems surprising that we can keep going lower on this, but it speaks to the relative lack of layoffs. scarlet: resilient.
joe: there have been a couple of times where it has gone up, then they go down. alix: and we are talking about when we will stop decreasing the unemployment rate, because there is no more room to be had, but this suggests that this is not the case. joe: on this job front, you see companies not being inclined to shed workers. there could be a case made that there is not a lot of expansion, but from a firing perspective, people are holding onto workers alix: that they have. -- that they have. alix: and i keep trying to find a reason that the yen keeps rallying. there is a possible solution on this chart, capital inflow. this measures on a week by week basis in the trillions of yen. a we see with capital inflow and outflow, above the line is outflow, below inflow. look at what we have seen in the past couple of weeks. a lot of inflow into japan, as
much as 2 trillion yen. this is mostly in bonds. and you can see equities as well. because of this because you have the capital inflow, the boj, if they take action it will have to be tremendously aggressive. forget about corporate bonds, you'll have to go full throttle into the stock market and be very drastic to control the rise. strengtheningen being surprising, capital inflows is not what you would expect to see either. scarlet: right. hour, up in the next half we take a deep dive into three global economies, canada taking a rate cut off the table, plus general elections, and we weigh in on china. ♪
♪ >> let's get to first word news. presidential candidate ted cruz added more than $12 million to his campaign last month. he has raised about $32 million over the first three months of the year. that is according to his campaign, but officials did not say how much cash the center has on hand right now. bernie sanders plans on attending the vatican sponsored conference that put him in the middle of a diplomatic disputes. a senior official accused him of showing monumental discourtesy and seeking an invitation to the
event and politicizing the gathering. a spokesman for sanders disputes that characterization, saying that the invitation came from the vatican and not at his request. a senior u.s. official says that a man shot his commander in a murder suicide at an air force days in san antonio, texas today. two handguns were found near the men. they insist that the shooting was not an active terrorism. the fbi is investigating. the cost of mailing a letter is going down. the price of a first-class stamp will drop two cents. it is the result of an expiring surcharge that was supposed to help the post office recoup funds. they believe that now they will lose $2 billion in annual revenue with the price drop. i am mark crumpton.
scarlet: thank you. we will get a quick recap. u.s. stocks are going higher, certainly at the best levels of the session. the nasdaq finishing above the unchanged line. and a jump in crude oil is helping energy shares and biotechs are slumping. joe: a major surge in crude oil today, then so some of the modest gain in equities is surprising, and as you noted we were higher earlier in the day and then it ended with this result. alix: the biggest rally for crude since february 12. so, it was surprising that we do not see anything up more. that correlation breaking down over the last couple of days. scarlet: and currency, and other big mover, the loonie. it surged the most versus the
dollar in three weeks. you can see the dollar was lower. this is the dollar versus the canadian dollar. right when the jobs report came out, and it was stronger than expected. so they were talking about whether the bank of canada would do anything. this jobs report argues no. alix: this is one country we are focusing on, canada. and we will discuss the peru election and hank paulson's comments on china. luke will start us off with canada. joe: we got an awesome jobs report mattel is why this was so good. and more importantly, why are we talking about canada? why should we care? guest: first, the jobs report, we had 40,000 jobs created. that, when you get that in canada, you will see that a lot of employment is part-time, this is vast majority
full-time and a lot of it came from the private sector. under the hood, there were some things that did not make sense. alberta was the leader and also -- scarlet: for job growth? guest: yes. and manufacturing shed a lot of jobs, would you do not expect. joe: so why do we care? why is canada's economic data a big deal? guest: i cannot think of a greater pulse for the global economy, think about it, the two biggest economies in the world -- the united states and china. and the biggest trading partner for the united states, canada. and china, a little more indirect, but their advancement in commodities will affect the canadian dollar and in other indirect ways, capital from china, vancouver, they have been seen as a proxy for that. alix: what i don't understand, oil prices are still really terrible in canada.
they are having difficulty exporting it here, because there is no room. that would hurt oil prices more and he would think that would mean more job cuts in the oil industry. guest: you would think so, but you really need to take these exact numbers with a grain of salt. right now, we are looking at the territory where you would see oil prices so bad and it was really necessitate shut-ins and that is one thing that janet yellen has been talking about, that low oil could be bad if it has financial spillovers that hurt emerging-market economies. canada has a lot in common with that. alix: to your point. the bank of canada says that the adjustment from loyal -- lower oil prices has taken more than two years. scarlet: to that point, is there indication of the gains that we saw our sustainable? that -- do not think
all the commentary i read said that this average is lower and that is the more sustainable pace for job growth, but when you think about it, the past four quarters it has been about 0.2% growth. it has been incredibly solid, so that kind of growth does seem sustainable, in -- even in the face of the commodity drawdown. joe: were you surprised from that chart in the beginning, that the loonie had a strong day and that there were fugitive -- huge positive factors for canada . were you surprised that the loonie was not stronger? guest: i was surprised at the highs of the day were not higher. we were running into a strong technical level there at 1:30 p.m. and we flirted with that a lot in the past. so perhaps it will take more to break through. alix: what happens next? are these job gains sustainable? guest: not a chance. but the thing you can hope for
is, the biggest problem in the u.s. right now is how much exports are going to detract from growth and you can see that with the fed and their estimates. upcoming, you would think with the canadian dollar higher, some imports, that has been the and do my thing that would reverse. joe: you like to say that canada is an emergency -- emerging market in disguise. what do we see here? guest: you're looking at the emerging-market index and canadian dollar terms and the s&p and they have moved and that is a testament to the commodity centric nature of both industries and also on the backside, and a lot of the same factors will affect both -- chinese demand and the state of the u.s. economy in terms of driving commodity prices. alix: luke, thank you. scarlet: coming up, peru -- has
scarlet: it is time for the business flash, a look at the biggest business stories in the news. delta is upgrading the single aisle sweet. -- suites. spelling -- boeing and airbus are competing for the sale. shorter looking at domestic flights. tilde can make a decision later this month. delta couldn't make a decision later this month. suitors forpossible
the biggest electric company in kansas includes canada pension plan investment board. scarlet: united health group says they will call it quits in two obamacare market, the latest challenge to the overhaul. united health is the biggest health insurer for the nation. they want be selling plans in georgia and arkansas next year. ♪ bloombergs the business flash. alix: from north america to south america, we turn focus to peru. the peruvian sol is at its most volatile in seven years as they look forward to the first round of presidential elections on sunday. we want to bring in john in lima who joined as a buy skype. why should we care about these elections? well, it has been a
surprising election in the month leading up to the vote. initially, there was a lot of uncertainty about who the candidates would be and then suddenly in the next -- last few months, there were various problems and two of the most popular candidates were excluded and two more of the leading candidates, including the front runner, were in danger of being excluded from the race because of allegations. there has been uncertainty which has had an impact on the sol and other assets. joe: john, the front runner in the race, the daughter of the former leader, what is her platform and what is she running on and why to the polls show her doing well? guest: a lot of her support
and theom rural areas poor, who are really in a murdered by her father -- enamored by her father. she has inherited that and it really helped her in the last election, 2011, but was not quite enough to push her over the 50% mark. this time she has worked hard to win more votes. and she is campaigning on a platform of a firm hand against crime and basically maintaining the business friendly free market policies that her father implemented. focuses in terms of the legend, in the u.s. candidates are slamming the eight trade agreements with the
economy -- with the trade agreements with the economy, actually i will interrupt with the launch of the space shuttle in cape canaveral, do we have a live shot? there we go. there is the want of the spacex cargo launch. this is a dragon spacecraft that will go to the international space station where it will drop off habitat modules. alix: and the real exciting thing comes when it will complete its burn and to send -- descend. remember the falcon 9 blew apart after launch. scarlet: this kobe the fifth attempt -- this will be the inth attempt for it to land the ocean. the last four of them were unsuccessful.
they will be attempting to land on a ship for the fifth time. alix: they are trying to complete a team launches by 2015. we pay so much attention to these, because it really sets it up for the rest of the year. .carlet: ok, going back to john we are talking about the election in peru, coming back to the idea of trade flows being mainly with china, $18 billion with that country. and $50 billion with the u.s., so our peruvian candidates making the same link with the economy that canada to our in the u.s. -- candidates are in the u.s.? helped theas non-commodity exports for peru. and are a copper or dessert
zinc producer and -- copper producer and zinc producer and that goes to china. they have not really mentioned changing trade agreements, they are hoping that -- will be passed by this congress. one of the candidates is skeptical of the trade agreements and is not approving of the ppp, so it remains to be seen what will happen. scarlet: thank you so much. we want to go back to the live rocket elon musk's cargo going to the international space station. alix: almost in space. scarlet: it was from cape canaveral in florida. alix: ok. ♪
♪ alix: through the global lens, we have covered employment in canada and are real, now to china. regulators have been warning that the dangers of rapidly expanding credit could deleverage and it goes to show how bad the debt problem is, 250% of gdp, near including all kinds of debt. mrs. corporations -- this is corporations, households, etc.. comingunt of bad debt through could be as much as 15 trillion, what do you do it that? joe: one thing as you point out,
this is all of the debt. a guest on the show said this comes back to the government. scarlet: and this is why foreign investors are so nervous about investing in china, they look at these numbers and you said it, this is not a good story. hank paulson believes that economic reforms are critical to the united states. his recent book covers those challenges, which he outlined today. hank: it is an economy in transition and it has got serious challenges, short-term, intermediate, and long. short-term currency, which is moderating a bit, but overcapacity and confidence. intermediate, we have debt which is a big issue. looking at it further, they need a new growth model. the goodlook at it,
news is, the solution to all of rebuilding confidence and a dealing with that and the drivers -- debt and drivers of growth are speeding up reforms, reforms they really need to put into place to scale back the enterprises, put them on a level playing field and let the private sector do what it needs to do. this is a matter of political will. >> so there is a lot to unpack. first, go to the short-term. in the short-term, do you expect this to continue, depreciating china? the dollar in hank: in washington, people are accusing the chinese of trying to drive down currency and even spending a lot of money to prop up the currency. i think that ultimately what they are doing is moving toward
a currency that is more market determined. right now in the short-term they understand how important stability is, because in a time where you have speculative pressure to the downside, confidence to the downside, and really the understanding of the economy and what the leaders are doing in a low, this is a good room.o have a stable over time, you will see a market driven currency and frankly i do not want to apply what i think the value is at a time when there is, you know, again an understanding in the market about what is going on in china and what they are doing to deal with it. >> does the u.s. have a china policy? if so, what is it or what should it be? >> i was in china 10 days ago and you see the chinese
leadership, three people that they know in america, it may know you and henry kissinger and another. so why are there not people in america that have that relationship with the chinese leadership? ties in china, the biggest between our two countries have been the economic ties. because we have had quite a robust relationship for some time and this is a very troubled relationship right now in the sense that it is under stressed and a lot of people in the u.s. are rethinking, what is the value of having a good relationship with china? what is the real value of that? and as i look at it, this is a time when never hazmat relationship been more important -- that relationship been more
important, we could talk about the differences, but we have many issues where we have a common interest. it is so essential that we keep this relationship on an even keel, because it is in our interest to get things done where we have these --plementary's stash complement three ties -- i do not think that we will see president trout. >> what do you think we will have year? hank: i do not know. i should have not made that comment. i have to tell you, i am looking at things today that i never expected to see from either party. never expected to see and things that are very disappointing and disturbing to me, the level of discourse and i think what we have is come a when you have the american people as angry as they , this makesis is
them right for populism and i think what we are seeing is rooted in that. i will not make a prediction on who the president will be. i will stick my neck out and say it will not be donald trump. scarlet: that was hank paulson on bloomberg . alix: we want to show you live shots of the space at rocket -- space ex rocket. this was the first age completed. -- stage. we have seen the rocket landed successfully on a ship in the ocean, critical to the effort of the success of reusable rocket. alix: and the title the ship, of course i still love you. madrona continues -- the drone continues, but the rocket had
♪ scarlet: i am scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" alix: 9:30 p.m., we will be measuring inflation and what is happening in china. scarlet: and kicking off the earnings season on monday, looking for another quarter of earnings decline, the fourth straight that they have dropped. joe: and i will be looking at retail sales that come out on wednesday, a lot of important data, particularly the fed will be watching. important to watch that. scarlet: and make sure to tune in for bloomberg west tonight
erik: i am mark halperin. julie: and i'm john heilemann. every time you think you have gotten out, they keep pulling you back in. john: happy good friday, sports fans. i say good friday because what a good newsday it has been. hypothetical situation. you're running for president and the pope invites you to the vatican to give a speech. wwbsd. >> that is kind of impressive.