tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg April 13, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
and you are watching "the european close" on bloomberg. erik-- betty: i am betty liu in new york. you: i am mark barton and are watching "the european close" on bloomberg. a look at my options traders today, the most there is up the british since native began. the recent rally continues. betty: after yesterday's big rally, oil moves lower ahead of this weekend's opec meeting. how a potential agreement to freeze production at historically high levels could affect oil prices. mark: shares of tesla are following, tumbling, posting their biggest drop since 2014 after the u.k. promised growth would not be smooth. there will be a significant amount to achieve.
we are into the trading day and that's check with the markets are heading. let's go to julie hyman with the latest. julie: let's take a look at the major averages. we are seeing the lift on chinese export data, bank earnings in the u.s. and major averages hanging on around their highs of the session. if you take a look at the volume volumebloomberg, it is by industry and we have a big surge in volume in the financials, energy stocks and materials. industrials not too shabby. an increase has come with the earning season. really after two weeks of lower than usual volatility and volume. let's get to oil and that evolving reaction to the weekly inventory data. wti has now turned positive on those numbers, even after the larger than estimated build in those inventories.
there are two reasons why it looks like this. for me talk about weekly inventory numbers, it is not about the inventory but there is a lot of other data. this is one of those points, the four-week average gasoline demand. it was 5.5 of 1%. you have that change compared with -- it rose .5 of 1%. you have that change compared hwit this difference of the highly year basis. is a record,e it said gasoline demand, as i do you were discussing earlier, is that a high level. the other thing is that if production continues to fall, so we are watching the production levels. here is a two-year chart of that, but what is important is that it is below 9 million barrels, the lowest since october 2014, so higher gasoline demand, lower production in the u.s. is proving to be bullish oil today. betty: equities are moving
higher, so tell us some movers. coming in with a lot of year-over-year declines but smaller declines than estimated, so they are pulling up the rest of the banks. we will hear from citigroup on friday, bank of america and wells fargo tomorrow, so there is optimism for the other banks. looking at up movers, positive note on harley davidson from ubs, and facebook with a lot of positive analyst commentary based on their conference and under armour, positive with merrill lynch mentioning that some of the recent negative sentiment is overblown. mark: every industry group on by 2%.xx 600 is high, up basic resource is up by 6.6% as an industry group, followed by china exports declined the most in the year decline and imports narrowing. that is the big news out of china today. all industry groups rising.
pram your foods, a food company in the u.k., falling 31% earlier and now they are at 24% right now. mccormick abandoned the takeover talks to buy the good company. they demanded too high a price. makes things such as mr. kipling cakes and went you come to london, you have to try this. big developer in the u.k. london big property developer has shares up 1.8%. homeselopers, many of 652 are in the west london parking lot and the record number of luxury homes are planned in london's best district, even as demand worsened. quickly, france's biggest insurer is up. they have sold most of their u.k. life insurance, according
to two people with knowledge of the matter. collectively, they could fetch, according to some the way with the matter, as much as $715 million. --ir shares are up by six 6%. look forward to the kipling cakes. betty: you always manage to slip in some food for me, mark. let's check in on the first word news with matt miller. matt: thank you. serious president -- syra ia's president has floated already. he and his wife cast their ballots at the assad library in damascus. parliamentary elections in syria are held every four years and they say the boat is constitutional and separate from peace talks in geneva. the results are expected thursday. tax officials from around the world are meeting in paris to discuss the fallout from the mask leak of offshore account
data from panama firm. the panel disclosures have shaken the rich and powerful by exposing how they use networks of shell companies to dodge financial operations. few further details about the were events attendance released, and the meeting was closed to the media. marchmor more turmoil in brussels. today, a strike at the airport is disrupting flights and it began over a dispute about extending the effective working age of traffic controllers to at least 58. of oregonff markley is endorsing bernie sanders for president. he is the first senate colleague to endorse a candidate. he gives a high marks for resisting trade treaties that sanders says has cost americans jobs. he also says he has an uphill battle to win the democratic
nomination. global news 24 hours a day powered by a journalist and new sparrows around the world. i am matt miller. betty: thank you. european stocks are jumping the most in the month. data were some optimistic out of china, also turning positive for the year, so what does this mean for investor appetite? mark: let's ask elizabeth, vice chair of local investors, managing 440 billion euros. thank you for joining us. since february 11, we have seen a rebound in risk assets worldwide. is it sustainable? elizabeth: great question. i think we will see risk on, chris scott for 2016. been largely by news float sentiment. you read some of the economist saying that the reality is we have a fragile global economy
growing slowly. as we see some of the good news flow, people will take more risk. everybody needs yield, returns, and if they don't put money in the bank, it is negative and if they don't find government bonds, it is negative. people are putting their toe back in the water. it will be benefiting from the rally because it will be there before it happens. mark: so you have to look long-term because it could drive investors crazy? elizabeth: it is no way to invest, traders will be doing that but investing is long-term. and transaction costs are high, so you have to be careful when you make the trade. the biggest challenge is having the confidence and courage to stay in, even when there is negative news flow and making sure that it is that for supplied enough to get returns and not scared to put it on the red. betty: i do not want to gloss over that imf report because you heard jose vinals in the last
hour. they are issuing a stark warning that essentially, we could be, unless government intervenes, we could basically be walking straight into fresh crisis. what did you make of that report? elizabeth: sadly, it is very much what some of them have looked at at the moment. the reality is that we have major political and macro shops at there. we have not seen rebuttal demand coming back. good news on the oil price that you were covering earlier and that will help, but unless we see real leadership and real policy beyond monetary policy, there is not sufficient return and global demand in the world to make that recovery strong enough. that is the sad truth. betty: i know you were discussing this with mark a moment ago, there is values and if you have the courage, there is value in european investments. can we bring up that chart? when we look at how the s&p 500 has done versus the euro stocks,
that is hitting fresh lows and the stoxx 600 is hitting fresh lows and you have u.s. stocks average and even more higher, so where is that value in europe? elizabeth: of thinking stocks around the world and you have the divergence between what is happening to u.s. banks and european banks. i think that is one of the big actors coming through today. that will continue into that game because in a lot of europe, the little banks still have not completed with dealing with their asset prices. that is one. secondly, you have had depression because of oil price and you get the rebound, but the reality is coming out be selective. you have to choose the bits of the market you are most interested in, so there are very good high-yielding european stocks in stable areas that are doing a decent job at giving you a real return. we find demands all around the world, so i think that is looking good.
the u.s. has to be more selective in what you transfer value because valuations run not very high. in emerging markets, you have to be very thoughtful about where you go because sadly, there is so much concern about what happens to the u.s. dollar they have to be careful. mark: when you look at the best performing industry group within the european specter of the this basictrum, a resources, and what the rebound we have had. we know how far they fell. is it too late to take advantage of the rebound we have seen, not only commodities the commodity related companies? a dayeth: if you are not trader and long term investor, you have to be very cautious because we are going to see continued uncertainty. if you have the imf report coming out today which chimes of economists are saying, you will see weakness of demand continuing. we are seeing not enough capital expenditure, not enough
infrastructure investment, either by private or public sectors, so that mean commodity prices will be sensitive to demand. mark: is china volatility over? elizabeth: [laughter] mark: some of the generate levels of volatility we saw. elizabeth: i think it is encouraging to see some of that trade gap improving, so good news after eight months. that is positive. positive powerd usage. i think we are in a volatile world, therefore, there could be different news. we have constructed in china and we think long term there will be a rebalancing but it is an enormous economy. therefore, it is a long ride. mark: good to see, elizabeth corley. she is staying here and we will talk about geopolitical risks. do not move. betty: that is right. anywhere. move bank of england announcing latest interest rates amid signs of a slowing economy in the
from london and new york. i am mark barton in london. betty: i am betty liu and this is the european close. mark: from brazil to britain, the impact on the portfolio still with this, elizabeth corley. great function on the bloomberg, go, everything you need to know about the upcoming european shift. now, the lead campaign is 45-42.y ahead,
as you can see, the green and blue lines have been interchangeable for a while. aliant global investors think we are better off staying a member of the eu, why is that? we do and i do as well. it is a major trading partner, so let's think about the economy. from an economic point of view, we are dependent on that trade. when we look at professional services, one of the things the u.k. has been brilliant at is exporting trade and exporting services, so financial services, legal accounting, we are one of the top spots. most foreign direct investments into the u.k., one of the factors is the access to europe, whether it is english language speaking or access over europe. over 70% of investors inc. of that ask the relevant back to come so that is another reason.
the other, if we do separate, we don't think it will be amicable. they say they are desperate and they want and need us, but speaking to a wide range of people through conversations, regulators, customers, there is an element of frustration. they want this done. they really believe in the right of the british people to vote. everybody believes in that democratic right but it has to happen quickly and it will not be a quick and easy divorce. it will be a slow divorce and the disruption will be significant. ll see ine we wi decline, in direct correlation with with the imf said. by 2020, they think gdp will be down and we will have over half a million job losses. we think it is serious for the u.k., even on the best case scenario. the problems for europe are vastly overstated and we can improve europe from within significantly. mark: how are you hedging against the risks and how should
we, as investors, do so accordingly? elizabeth: ask you get the run-up to the referendum coming will have situation on the currency itself. everybody will take their own individual view, depending on what currency their liability is in. we have customers who are british customers who don't need that isdge it because their liability. i think as an individual investor, you need to think about two things. one, will there be opportunities to buy in? so look for customers -- companies that do well under both scenarios. and second, understanding what the risk appetite is and if they need to hedge, with the heads forward. of hedging, ag lot of investors are hedging and figuring out what the fed will do in the u.s. we were talking about banks earlier, jamie dimon reporting or jpmorgan reported their results and jamie dimon on the
phone was giving his view of what the fed will do. i want you to listen to what he said. jamie: on interest rates, i was not predict teen it but i am simply saying there is a chance that it will be gradual. betty: gradual and sudden. is that the reasonable scenario? elizabeth: it is a scenario. i think it is a crystal ball. i think a lot will be what is the global economy doing and how fragile is that? we have seen that in a lot of the language that cannot recently. there is a possibility of an interest rate rise, slightly more than the consensus at the moment possibly, and if the economy continues to grow steadily and well in the united states and there's no sign of macro destruction globally, there is a possibility. i think the question of sadness, what is said in? i would -- what is -- the question of suddenness, what is sudden?
i would like to have a conversation with him about that. have reasonable stability in global economy. like, todayunds deeper, the international market or how the international atmosphere is, that is really a big factor to you when it comes to the fed. data.eth: and u.s. this is the u.s. economy and it is clear that the jobs continue worked we have signs that outlook is closed, i mean, they have to take all of that into account. i think that could also be and it will factor into the consideration. you could find a situation where the u.s. is doing well and fundamentals look good we have a fragile global economy. then i think that is a difficult situation for the fed and who knows which way they would go. elizabeth, thank you for being with us. do not go on any of our other shows. we want you to stay with us. [laughter] they know very i am with bloomberg markets.
elizabeth: maybe if you had some cupcakes or any of those cakes. mark: they can be arranged. anything to get you back on. betty, that is all for us. betty: you see what all that driving can do with all the food you talk about. coming up up, shares are down after a reality check on at the company's turnaround progress. can bet u.k. grocery chain beat estimates? ♪
turnaround after he asked -- last year's accounting scandal. shares down. charles allen is here, bloomberg's food retail allen analyst. charles: i think they have had to step up investment in a couple of areas. one day highlighted is particularly meat, vegetables, fruits, etc. and their sales have been missing out compared to discounters, so they have just launched these so-called it directlyto take but they are costing more than may be most imagined. mark: it has been a good year, hasn't it, the chief executive, you know, the turnaround is taking shape? charles: they have done a lot of things and sales were up for the first time for a full quarter for four years or five years, depending on which country you
look at. the cost has been cut and it is simpler and a better business than it was, but a lot of that was anticipated. the shares were over 30% yesterday. mark: and they felt across the line that analyst price expectations. i showed the chart on that earlier. do they need to make more that investments? -- the vestments? charles: probably, we are saying addressed the little things, but even on a discounted rate, 7.8 billion of future commitments, which i think is the big worry that they have got to address, but financially and operationally because they are paying too much rent to be competitive. mark: what is the future, the prophet, the sales growth? charles: it is difficult to see how it will be that company when you have a percentage of the market in the u.k. it will not be a fast growth market.
they have none of their overseas markets that will move the needle really. beingant to get back to industry leading, but industry-leading would be below where they used to be. mark: thank you for joining us. charles allen of bloomberg tesco, down by 8%. finishing the day, down for the fourth consecutive day. it is all about china trade day, encouraging trade day. stoxx 600 up by 2.2%, the ftse -- 1.6%.ke 6.1% rebounding from the low on february 11. every industry group gaining on the stoxx 600. the european close is next. ♪
with me. look at that, up 2.3% on the stock the country today. china is dictating the mood here today. imports are narrowing, statistics table as a nation in the world's second-biggest economy. the four day run is the best run early march. u.k. stocks have turned positive for the year. since every 11th, the ftse is up. stock markets have rebounded -- canada, new zealand, the u.s. and the u.k. 11th, anglory the is up i put 1% and glencore is up by 80%. just four stocks have fallen since february 11, quite astonishing. tesco is a big story today,
shares following as much as 8%. they are being held by the cost of improving its products. profit last year did beat estimates, the improving sales are helping to mitigate the effects of the industry price war. what we have seen since january is a big upturn in tesco shares, moving it closer to the average 12 month rice target. moving away from it today because of these declines. declines in the share price. but divergence would be good news for tesco shareholders. betty: speaking about divergence, we were looking at european stocks versus u.s. stocks. mark: this is amazing. european stocks are trading at a .ecord low quite amazing, when i saw that earlier when i came in.
1980 7-2016, this is a percentage move. the bottom line is the stoxx 600. and this is a ratio, it it is trading at about a fifth of the value. you have a big impetus of what to boosteeds to do stimulus. since then, it has outperformed the stoxx 600 so even the ecb has not managed to give the stoxx 600 as much of a boost as the s&p has enjoyed. this year, the s&p is beating the stoxx 600. a lovely fact that european stocks are trading at a record low. yes, we are not just on holiday. betty: the gap is getting wider and wider, even today. in the u.s., we are just touching our high of the year.
the s&p is up, and you can see almost 1%. the nasdaq has already hit over that mark at 1.2%. heart of that has to do with the sentiment coming out from the bank earnings. let's check in on our bloomberg first word news with matt miller. matt: spain has arrested a frenchman they believe supplied the arms to one of the paris attackers. the 27-year-old was arrested in a southern coastal town of spain on a european arrest warrant. those attacks left 17 victims and three attackers dead. a man from serbia and a man from montenegrin were also arrested. attorneys for the man charged with shooting nine people at a charleston church are seeking a delay in the death penalty trial. dylann roof's
attorneys say they will not have enough time for preparation. and do you love fast food? eat fast food, -- industrial level of chemicals in your body. some of those chemicals which do not occur in nature are in soap, window blinds and makeup. fast food is a significant source of the chemical which may leach into food during processing. byricans backs demands democrats of the republican run senate moving forward on the nomination of merrick garland. that is president obama's choice for the supreme court justice. rty defiance may hurt the pa ultimately, because too many people, the election-year fight is not a big deal. global news, 24 hours a day
powered by our 2400 journalists. i am matt miller. mark: great stuff, thank you for joining us. what do we have next? betty: let's talk oil. weekend wherethis proposals will be made for russia and saudi arabia to possibly freeze production. that is according to an interfax report yesterday. bouncing back from earlier lows, the wti is remaining above $40 a barrel and it took be dipped after the u.s. energy department said that u.s. crude oil inventories increased by more than 6 billion barrels last week. let'slet's get mayor -- get more on insight on where prices are headed. joining us now is richard mallinson. richard, thank you for joining us. are we going to get a freeze at the weekend?
if we don't get one, what sort of setup will we get with the oil market? richard: a really good question. it is what the whole market is asking. the point is, expectations have built this up to a level where we have seen prices run up really fast in the last few sessions. and i think the parties going into the talks know that they need to deliver something. the challenge is still, what do you do about iran? iran still wants to wrap up further so saudi arabia and russia, a need to find some kind of accommodation which allows them to ramp up a bit more. and also to accept the ability to ramp up. giving the market something to say there is an agreement or the very least, we are continuing to talk. otherwise you could get sharp corrections. mark: we have a chart here which shows that most of the members of opec are under producing,
below the proposed level of a freeze around 29.1 million thatls, which tells us actually, they could step up production a little bit. is that the reality right now? richard: well, i think one of the big things that they have to talk about on sunday is where you set the baseline. whose numbers do you use when you set a target and when you measure it in the coming months, what we have had is several members issuing very high estimates for their own production in recent months that we have also had a hue -- a few places that have taken barrels off the market. so i don't think the saudi's and the others will trust the numbers that the countries themselves published. it will have to be something more external. and that we want to see if they
use january as the baseline or march of the baseline and what does that mean for the countries who have had short-term geopolitical disruptions? mark: rising prices are helping opec's rivals stay in business so what is the rationale for an accord right now? richard: well, the point here is that although we have seen prices recover from january lows, we are still in the midst of a big rebound in the market. so the opec members are seeing the fruits of the year and a half of low prices in terms of lower spending in the rest of the world and lower production. but they would like to see the price recovery come. they know that if they can demonstrate that opec is able to start working in a more coordinated way, that will give support to prices. we still have price levels where
the rebound is happening so i don't think they're worried yet that the u.s. shares or other parts of non-opec are suddenly going to rebound or ramp up investment. we are still some way off prices that would halt rebalancing but it is a more comfortable level for opec compared to the low 30's and sub 30's that we saw in january. betty: we have breaking news on argentina. argentina is saying that they may proceed with bond sales. basically, debt sales, after the u.s. court rules on its appeal. it has a hearing right now, today, in which the court's ruling whether it can go ahead and repay its creditors, saying that they can't do that until they get the decision. so argentina may proceed with bond sales. you can see right now that the
peso is declining here against the dollar. ok, we will be back with much more on argentina. but back on oil, richard, getting back to this meeting -- the long-term effects? let's say that we just don't get anything, it is a muddy response? where does will go after that? richard: given that we have gone up several dollars, if we end $44-40k near $44-55 -- five dollars, we will probably see a correction. the reality is that fundamentals don't change. it is only about supporting sentiment. it doesn't take oil of the market and it doesn't mean that we don't have an issue in the short term. so i think that the run-up in prices and the tightening in
time frames that we have seen over the last week is probably a bit premature and overdone. we may see that correct once we know the outcome. and richard, it is stockpiles. you talk about the oversupply. in the global market, 300 billion barrels of oil are in storage over the last 18 months. how long is it going to take to work through those stockpiles? richard: well, i think a couple of things are worth remembering. when is that oil has gone into strategic returns and it is oil that won't come straight back out. it has gone in for emergency situations. the second thing is that prices don't need all of that inventory to be run down.
before they can start to rise and recover. what the market will be looking at is not just the current picture, but what is the outlook for the next couple of years? as demand continues to rise, we will see the balance in the second half of the year. it willlook into 2017, become more rapid. so the question quickly becomes, where we going to get additional supplies from and high prices -- and how high do prices need to go? u.s. shale will be part of the answer. mark: what is the answer to that? richard: we think, by the end of this year, we will see prices and into the0's 70's next year. intentionally, we could go back up into the 80's and above. mark: thank you for giving us your update on the oil industry. that was richard mallinson
betty: before we get to our global battle of the charts, i want to clarify the headlines you see at the bottom of the screen. it wasn't clear that the new york appeals court has ruled on argentina. argentina has won their appeal that allows them to pay back their creditors, which is why the government has said they may proceed with debt sales. we just want to make sure that it is clarified and that the
court ruling has been decided. now, it is time for our global battle of the charts. it will take a look at some of the most telling the charts of the day and what they mean for the investors. you can take a look at these charts on the bloomberg. we have joe weisenthal. joe: one of the big questions right now in economics is, is inflation pressure starting to build? will the fed get to a target? today, we may have gotten a step back. the report came in, the come to surprise index and one important measure to look at was services. we have seen health care inflation has not been that high but it has been increasing lately and healthcare services goes right into that. if you look at the white line, you can see actual prices kicked down sequentially this month,
which means we are not particularly hot with health care inflation. if you want to see inflation hit its target, you want to see that turnaround. as it is, it is still kind of week. the yellow line is the charts that the fed really looks at. if health care inflation isn't accelerating, it is hard to see that shooting up too much. you can check out that chart on the terminal. betty: i don't want to see my health care gop. joe: no one really wants to see higher prices. [laughter] betty: mark? how many colors do you have today? mark: joe is not getting an easy win today. the big question is, even if the u.k. decides to stay in the eu, we have an increasing number of strategists saying that we will initially rally and then it will
decline. i'd top of that you have options traders suggesting that. this is risk reversal data going back over the last year. how the dollar reacts to risk reversal data. hedging against sterling losses, it has widened this week to 4.7 percentage points. that is the white line, the most to 2003.nt going back what you have got is similar premiums for risk reversal on six months and on one year as well. back to the investors, pioneer investment, they say the sterling could bounce initially by 4% if the u.k. votes to stay in the eu but then the gains will quickly evaporate. basically, the problem with sterling is that we have a record account deficit of 7% gdp
in the fourth quarter and you have expectations of interest rates with the market suggesting that we will not get an interest rate hike until at least the end of 2019. so that is why many are suggesting that even if we do get a vote to remain in the eu, sterling's initial rally won't last. this beauty, we have a chart today. betty: you do indeed, although i will hand it to joe. it is not everyday day that we talk about health care. he brought in a new element. joe: thank you very much. betty: and mark, you always talk about the pound and brexit. mark: bring back the four line. i will stop interrupting you. [laughter]
performers was facebook but we have seen a stunning reversal. it is now down by more than 1.5% as the custom he -- as the company posts from san francisco. the buzz coming out of the first day was positive from analysts. but evan wilson did say that he thinks the company's vision could be hard to pull off. so now may be many are thinking that could be the case. the ideas presented could be difficult. after that, the stock has been a bumpy ride. more downside could be a head into the company's first-quarter report on april 25. betty: thank you so much. that was abigail doolittle at the nasdaq. mark: let's talk about tech. yuri milner is known for his bold investments. he announced yesterday that he would spend money on the search
for alien civilizations. act -- asked the investor where the companies are headed and what he likes now. yuri: i think that the technological revolution is unstoppable. i think that innovation has been happening for so long that we don't have any reason to believe it. . what we do is invest in innovation. every generation brings a contribution to innovation. if history is any lesson, every generation will build their own companies. like alibaba, spotify -- you would believe that innovation .ill be dominated by companies every generation is building their own companies.
so innovation may be unstoppable . erik: you have to make intelligent choices about who to investment and what technologies. what appeals to you right now? yuri: we continue to believe that things are moving mobile. mobile innovation is a steady business to stay and. erik: years ago, you told me you would continue to be invested with the founders of the companies which you held stakes, as long as they continue to push the envelope. yes, you are out of facebook. you have regrets about that? yuri: well, this is how private equity business works. i were funds have certain lifetimes. be, would youould still be invested in facebook? yuri: yes. erik: how about twitter? -- companies regularly, as
we are out of some of the positions, i don't follow them very closely. mark: that was yuri milner with erik schatzker. levelse is at the highest since december of last year. they are raising their gains from yesterday and adding to those gains today. miners led the advance today. exports jumped the most in a year. every industry group on the stoxx 600 finished the wednesday session high and that is it from us. bloomberg markets continues. ♪
scarlet: from bloomberg world headquarters, i am scarlet fu. alix: i am alix steel. the clout that china cast over financial markets may be beginning to list. u.s. stocks are gaining for a second day on first-quarter earnings. scarlet: commodities are also getting a boost. crude oil is falling today as more speculation draws over the outcome of the meeting in doha. alix: plus, stocks in brazil are climbing to a 10 month high. can a new government pull its economy out of the worst recession in a century? scarlet: we are halfway into the trading day. julie hyman hyman has been tracking the moves. it is a positi