tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg April 13, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT
from bloomberg world headquarters in new york city, good afternoon. i'm carol massar. here is what we're watching at this hour. the close of the 2016 high financials here it financials are leading the way after earnings from j.p. morgan chase beat estimates. it begs the question, has the bar been set to low for the bank earnings season? , alsog demand for autos restaurants leading to a surprise drop in march retail sales. why are u.s. consumers holding back and is this a long-term trend? bigfacebook is putting a emphasis on virtual reality. we speak to the social network's chief technology officer. we are one hour away from the close of trading. at the markets desk julie hyman has the latest.
julie: thank you. it has been steady. it is not just j.p. morgan, but china as well. saw the biggest year-over-year gain in exports year over year in china. a little bit of reviving economic demand potentially there. some mixed economic data in the u.s.. neither of those really derailing stocks from their upward climb that we have seen in today's session. it is financials leading the way. take a look. groups, groupsal that are economically sensitive, to what is going on here in the u.s. or in china. industrials, and technology also on the rise, the defensive or economically resistant groups at the bottom here, telecom, consumer, and -- on the wave today. really has been largely about jpmorgan, up that are than 4%. it saw a lot of declines in its
earnings. mentioned,as carol partly because a lot of folks are cutting earnings estimates. other companies set to beer -- to report this week, also rising for what may come from those reports. i want to point out that along with automakers, really lagging this year thus far, you see they are below on a percentage adjusted aces. right, -- in white, autos and yellow. we are starting to see more of a list in recent days as we see a recovery there. the question is will it be enough to make up for the big drag? climbing as aare result. the defensive play is going to the wayside. right. gold, a more risk on attitude sentiment today.
gold is falling. we are seeing a buying of treasuries. the yield is moving lower as the price moves higher. you could argue there is safety in either the yen or the dollar depending on how you look at it. today, the yen is lower versus the u.s. dollar following yesterday's gains on the dollar as well. oil prices have been over the map. declines earlier, they went higher and now back to the lows of the session. we the inventories report was mixed, showing a building crude but also higher demand for gasoline and lower production. all of that now is equaling a falling oil price. thank you. now let's get a check of the headlines. mark crumpton has more from the newsroom. mark: thank you. family suing the flight school where the suicide pilot trained. phoenix was filed in against airline training center in arizona. andrea crashed a plane into the
french alps, killing all 150 people on board. treated for depression before sending the flight school. authorities in spain have arrested a frenchman they believe supply is -- supplied the suspectse of in the deadly january of 2015 terror attacks in paris. a 27-year-old was apprehended in a coastal town in spain. two other men were taken into custody. four people were killed inside a kosher supermarket in that attack. all 20 people, including a policewoman and gunmen, were killed. a task force set up by the chicago marriott in response to an outcry of police shootings is out with its report here it it says police in chicago have "no regard for the sanctity of life when it comes to evil of color and it alienated blacks and hispanics for decades by using excessive force and honoring a code of silence." the panel found it did little to weed out the officers and
routine encounters unnecessarily turned deadly. data from a survey show people who fast food at elevated levels have some industrial chemicals in their bodies. which dohe chemicals, not occur in nature, are cosmetics, soap, flooring, and window blinds. fast food is a significant source of the chemicals, which may leach into food from machinery processing, packaging, or the gloves worn by workers. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world here at i am mark crumpton. back to you. carol: financial stocks getting a lift after a better than estimated for -- first-quarter profit. taking a beating so far this year. joined by we are jeff, chief global investment
strategist at charles schwab. you are back with us here in december. we got fromwhat j.p. morgan, do you have more conviction about financials now? >> it was a tough order for financials p are we are now seeing not just the fact that jpmorgan has found ways of showing maybethere are ways of getting through, it has been a tough quarter with negative interest rates and credit concerns about oil, they found a way to profitably move through that era the key is rising inflation expectations. the reason that is important for what they is that is base their profit margins for landing on. it lists the longer end of the yield curve and they make more on each loan, which is critical. it has not yet meaningfully picked up in europe as that begins to show signs around the world. more of a list of financials. i am more focused on q2 and the
outlook for those expectations. what we got from j.p. morgan, does that set the ground from what we got from wells fargo, goldman sachs next week, morgan chase -- morgan stanley, excuse me, so there is a lot more to come. what do you anticipate from the rest of the group? >> we want to hear things from wells fargo. maybe the most exposure to energy and oil lending. how they arear lending the credit exposure there. we want to hear from some of the most global lenders about how markets are effective around the world, particularly in europe and other parts of the world where we want to see it begin to pick up. from differents companies. overall, having gotten through a tough quarter and setting themselves up for a better second half is what people will be looking for and wanting to hear. different things from different financials.
forow much better everything, the corporate environment as a whole and the investment environment? >> it depends. we are looking at early signs that china may be destabilizing. we got data last week of the manufacturing index. that will be the key in taking a look at what the global demand picture looks like here and we have started to see some sights in the u.s. of things starting to pick back up again. shift intum of the forward-looking growth is critical for our expectations for the 2017 profits and much of that begins to get priced into the second half of this year. i would expect to bet more on volatility that continued the upward rise in the last few months. retailill dig into the sales figure we got that was no doubt disappointing. >> yes. you are right. there are pockets of weakness. we are not seeing uniform shifts in weakness to.
january and february, we seemed to be heading for a recession. trajectory over the last few months and how the fed perceives it as well. the fed talks about hiking rates, that could tighten financial -- wind out of the sails and financials. is -- if the fed raises rates, doesn't that mean they're confident enough -- >> if it just look like rates will go up slowly. the key is how fast and aggressive and how that balances the global economic picture. janet yellen talked about developments abroad, the phrase she uses. the chinese data, some of the data out of europe we're seeing, that is a good sign. hiking rates, slow but that he, globalll not upset the
economic picture. we just do not have enough data and neither does the fed. that is why more volatility. data: do you have enough to feel confident about where to invest at this point? >> yes. one thing i'm excited about is the upward change after he in the eurozone. we are seeing a good outlook for profits this corner and next as we look to europe and asia as well, there is not as prominent and energy sector so the drag is not quite as severe. the turnaround of financials as are really benefiting as things turn around and inflation expectations and so on and other areas. t shortok brighter in term particularly as the dollar remains stable here and financial conditions remain solid. carol: thank you so much. i appreciate your input.
at 2080, of 18 performance -- 18 points. for a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. the u.s. is reportedly looking to ban the founder from the blood testing industry for least two years. that is according to the wall street journal. citing people familiar, the journal says a have responded to the proposal and regulators are reviewing the response. over the last few months, they have been sending off charges that affordable lab tests are not as accurate as they should be. comply withn will the senatea and committee investigating drug pricing. he has repeatedly said he would not go. the senate special committee on aging on april 19, he will also attend another hearing on it 27th. the panel will postpone a vote to hold him in contempt of congress.
executive isany asking an appeals court if he can remain free while appealing his case. asking the court of appeals to let him remain free on a million dollar bond. he was convicted of conspiring to willfully violate safety standards. in coal mine killed 29 men 2010. that is your update. billion dollar california state teachers retirement system is to get more activities than the european awayestate and staying from commodities and emerging markets. the ceo of the second-largest joiningsion fund bloomberg this morning where he broke down the board's philosophy on investing. >> think of us as a giant cruise ship. subtle course
corrections based on what we see in the ocean, but we will not turn the ship on a dime. we will make little moves so we are at market rate in the u.s. equity market, going a little bit into the u.s. equity market. that mattersincome the most, and then watching your risk and not trying to overextend. >> past japan, then europe. we talking about an incredibly low yield. do you get off the ship, do you look at the markets at this point? >> no. i totally agree, not just low but negative yield. it is amazing to see parts of the world with negative yield and that is amazing. we are very underweight text income. we think u.s. fixed income is very cheap when you look around the world and yields. we are underweight overall, fixed income.
we think we will feather in with traits, particularly in with europe. was a very good trade at the start but it has been tougher as the implementation of the third arrow has taken a long time. hasthan: the beast of japan one stocks and gone abroad, etc.. when we talk about negative yields, we say, this must the health for pension funds. you are running one, how bad is it? pif is a great guy. finally rebalancing into more of a in more -- a normal retirement portfolio. he has that a 30 year retirement horizon. into theassets built portfolio, as delete. we will stay invested to we will be underweight and not chase negative yield at all. we will look for coupon income in other areas.
>> given the need for yield at private equity, like real estate, are you changing your mix in that regard? >> we already have a sizable exposure. up 13% in real estate and 9% in private equity. we think right now, u.s. real estate is priced to perfection. profits.ell to take in the only way we can make money in real estate now is to build up to core and really sell it. we are looking at private equity and real estate and other parts of the world because as jonathan lookseurope actually pretty reasonable and inexpensive compared to the usa in those markets. where are you making the minor course corrections on the cruise ship? yes we are taking money and profits. we have a negative cash flow. profits in the
u.s. market and these kinds of high levels. we will shave off some of the profits on a regular basis and use that for cash flow and sell off a little bit of text income if the yield curve continues to hold up. >> you said you were reallocating 25 billion dollars. that is a lot to reallocate. where are you putting an end? >> we will take it slowly. the board made a decision to be more global. we had a home country bias. we will now be more global. 50% u.s. >> he were old -- always global. if i guess you would get out of japan and into europe, would i be right? over time because europe has a lot of problems to get through. and we will increase our investment infrastructure. we think the usa at some point will be finding a way to get infrastructure finance besides just municipal bonds. steady cash flow coupon.
mode forocks in rally the second straight day. all three on the pace to close for 2016 eyes. julie hyman is standing by with how the options market is. julie: thank you. joining me is david, strategist, out in chicago. everyone was worried about an -- about earnings season. now it is fine. eat andr bank will
everything will be dandy. that is the vibe you are seeing in the stock market today. what is the read over there? >> sure, i will take it. it is sunny out. that is a plus. what is happening is there is a range contraction on the s&p 500 here for a while, lower highs and higher lows here whenever the rain contracts, it will eventually break out one where the other. i think the spring went to the upside this time. from a technical perspective, it is looking good. from entering side, you lower the bar enough, and you can hop over it easily. what you are seeing, since we were looking at -10.9% earnings growth on the s&p 500, if you strip out energy, you're talking 6%, earnings contraction, 6% if you strip out energy. the bar is really low plus,
dollar headwinds. i think that is what is calm in everyone a little bit. it is lobar and we are getting over it. >> you have technicals and the lobar. that mean there will be in up swell now of optimism for the rest of earnings? is legitimatet that earnings will indeed come in not just better than estimated, but maybe positive commentary as well? what do you think? >> i think coming into the earnings season, companies were just try to set the expectations so low. i think it will be better but when you live by the sword, you die by the sword. we are a bad earnings report away from turning around and selling back off. a big spike in the fix and everyone is worried again. right now, things are looking ok because a major concern was the banks. we are worried about energy but we know that was going to be
bad. that is what we are dealing with, a lot of optimism. you are looking ahead at e*trade. it'll 21st of i am not mistaken. you seem to be relatively positive on that. thinking behind it? is it a general lobar that we are seeing? >> they have been taking a bunch of my commission. just kidding. what e*trade, you have got a department of labor ruling came down that will restrict retirement accounts and where they can go, and what sort of shares they could go into. affecting some of the bigger financial firms, the more full service kind of guys. it will draw a lot of business toward the diy play. specifically, e*trade will benefit. plus, a situation where they sold off a little bit while earnings estimates state afloat.
i was bullish on them. what i will do is they have got earnings, and there is not a lot of juice in the causeight now. go out and earlier today, i bought a $24 call that cost me $1.5. i think it could be a $30 stock by then. seee: all right we will what happens with changing culture and regulations, if you will. thank you so much. we appreciate it. carol: thank you. still ahead, retail sales posted a surprise drop in march. how much trouble, we will take a look at the numbers coming up next. ahead in the break, a look at the retail trace -- trades. ♪
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mark crumpton has more from the newsroom. the republicanof national committee is challenging donald trump's claims that the nomination process is rate. rise previous says the rules have been in place for a year. he tweeted it is the responsibility of the campaign to understand it. complaints now, give us a break. voters15% of republican say the candidate with most state delegates should be the nominee even if he does not have a clear majority. according to a new associated would bel, 43% say it acceptable for the delegates to pick a different candidate. in --xas team who used teen who used an affluence a defense for drunk driving case will spend years in prison. a judge ordered even to spend more than 180 days behind bars for each of the four people killed. as his attorneys argued, he was
too spoiled to know right from wrong. he turned 19 on monday. he and his mother were caught in mexico last year after flinging possible probation violation. america's brightest children were at the white house as president obama attended his final science fair, which featured more than 130 entries, including a connecticut student that created a diagnostic test for the detection of the ebola virus. president obama: there is nothing that makes me more hopeful than seeing young people like the ones here who come in all shapes and sizes. are showing the rest of us that it is never too early in life to make a difference. president began a science fair in 2010, saying the students with the best products on to be recognized and regularly come to the white house. good news and bad news for u.s. airlines.
the government says more flights are being arrive -- arriving on time. the transportation department says more than 83% of flights on the leading airlines arrived on 81.3% in january. hawaiian airlines and alaska airlines are on time. spirits and jetblue were late more often. dayal news 24 hours a powered by more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i am mark crumpton. back to you. carol: markets closing in about 20 minutes from now. now. minutes from a tech stock starting it out with apple. what is going on? >> the biggest boost to the nasdaq is apple. shares are higher. gene munster has reiterated apple has the top pick for 2015 after the survey indicated iphone ownership grow -- grew.
on its 200 day moving average but heading up resistance, perhaps amongst expectations it could be growing a little bit lofty. goldman said they expect a beaten race quarter, putting pressure on apple to deliver. one stock with the biggest boost to the nasdaq, facebook, a tremendous amount of volatility, a stunning reversal as late in the morning, a report surfaced that a conference call mentioned week -- weakness for facebook in the first quarter. colin sebastian is defending facebook shares, alluding for a -- to a conference call, suggesting it did happen. the shares are below the 10 day moving average, suggesting there could be more downside ahead for facebook.
carol: net flux is having it upbeat day. >> it is, more than 2.5% after its --- bp ig raised saying the content is hoping to drive. raised its price target by 10% to $150. it has been a volatile year for netflix. but the stock is up nicely on february lows. just recently, sellers have cracked the stock and it is below that near term uptrend. it will be interesting to see what happens when the company reports its first-quarter next monday after the bell. carol: netflix still down 4% this year. just to mention, facebook has i think turned a little bit positive. let me check. yep. just up .6%. morning showing
americans have been reluctant to open their wallets. u.s. retail sales unexpectedly falling last month as fewer cars, clothes, and dining at fewer outlets. it comes with decades of experience in the retail industry. he joins us in the studio. i stood have you here. when you see the retail numbers, we are focused on them. it is so important to the economy in terms of the consumer. what does it say to you? where it does not coincide with what my experience is. there is an oversupply of retail and i think the shopper is out there and they are looking for value, experience, and they are looking for -- if you want to buy something you want shopping. into
spending, they are spending a lot on family experiences, going to amusement parts. they have been growing and growing. 3000ocks -- in scottsdale, people. >> i'm tired of stocks and would much rather have an experience. find thatilling to unique experience. what will happen to mainstream retailers that have happened for a long time? we have seen a fair amount for specialty retailers. >> they have got to enhance the brand. who are they? do they give a great story experience? a great value? exclusivity? -- to thathat's
specific store question mark he will go if you can get good ingredients, good value, the brand you are looking for, and maybe that is the only place you can get that brand. and it is a nice experience. carol: what do you think ultimately will be the mix between brick-and-mortar and online? longtime peoples at brick-and-mortar would go away. it has not gone away completely. never go awayll or online will get bigger and bigger. if the retailers don't improve their experience, why go to the store? worked with ae lot of well-known celebrities. jennifer lopez, marc anthony, they have a line at kohl's. aen you're working with celebrity, you're looking at the retail environment and you have got to look at what to sell your. what do you tell them? charles: the first thing you have to tell a celebrity is the pot if they are associated with has to be them and they have to be involved in the process and the creative process. it has to reflect them. that is what the consumer wants.
a wednesday williams fan and you watch her every day, you know what she is about. and productsng reflect her, you know it. if they reflect her, you will be interested in it. in particular if it is good value and looks great. you will want to be there. is true withg music celebrities. if you are a big music star, your audience wakes up and uses their credit card to download music. they use a credit card to buy tickets. if you have a product that represents you, they are all in. carol: do you think the sales numbers are more reflective of people giving away, not liking the choices out there? are you worried that -- about that? charles: it does not worry me. a consumer is there. i think it is about the environment. you cannot go to the store and you are overwhelmed by stuff everywhere, not a clear view as to what that story is about. and you should know what you're
looking for. carol: i'm curious which retailers you think will not be here in a few years. putting you on the spot. charles: i would rather talk about who i think will be here. i think the fifth avenue in the world will be here and they will improve the experience. you know what the brand is to you know what it is. fani have always been a big and i think they have lost their way little bit. they were the store where you knew the brands there. they advertise that. they do not do it as much anymore. a bit more on facebook as we are talking about it. apparently sang data on facebook add trends today. move that up.
thank you. was incomplete and the data did not provide proper context. that is what is being said in a statement to bloomberg news. was a tweet involving facebook that put pressure on the stock. facebook obviously addressing that. we want to get it out to our viewers. facebook, a quick update on the share price right now, we see facebook still down .2% right now. things it is doing well, who do you like most in the retail space? charles: i am still a macy's plan -- fan. kohl's is a good environment. i am not sure they are marketing the way they should. social media has become a big part of the media landscape. -- in using it. we will see more of that going forward? charles: definitely. a consumer is much smarter.
probably too many choices. truth is very important. orther it is social media advertising, you cannot fool the consumer anymore. they have too many places to look and go. you have got to be truthful and given what they want to have the value. they want a good experience. if they do not have it, why go to your store? carol: thank you. i appreciate you coming in. here.g us right guest is theur chief technology officer. we will get to that in just a moment. ♪
carol: a quick check on the markets. we see a rally underway this when they. check it out. holding out to the gains in the session. on the dow jones industrial average, up 1.6%. almost that on the nasdaq. good for a gain of about 1%. it has been full steam ahead for many u.s. companies. looking into data from the first quarter, the tide could be turning. from the bloomberg news stocks team, here in the first quarter. >> for dividends, expansion of shareholder payouts is slowing down. it is not cuts. we're not giving to the point where people are cutting. what is happening is companies are increasing the dividends for less and fewer companies are increasing their dividend at all. carol: the chart has come down a bunch.
>> a number of stocks are raising the dividend. a big drop down. these are all for the first quarter. that is the biggest quarter typically in which companies will raise their dividend. you look at the dollar amount and what we are looking at is not just the number of companies which has gotten lower, but also the dollar amount. last year in the first quarter, they raise dividends by $12 billion. it is the smallest amount since 2009. perhaps part of it. there are two arguments. one is that cash on hand, we know earnings are junk right now. it is bad here at we know the cash is getting stressed when you look at measurements like financing gaps and measurements like the basic difference between companies coming in for cash and what only put out. i think what is really interested here -- interesting
here is dividends are lower because we have got energy problems. that is where the cuts are coming from, but across all 10 sectors, seven -- seven out of 10 have fewer dividend increases and they are all smaller this year. it is starting to happen beyond the area. carol: we talk about companies being plush in terms of balance sheet. capital, pumping in if you will. it is interesting that there are slowing down, maybe it is a cautious stance here. >> it is definitely a decision where if you are confident that this is the best place for money, maybe you do not want to put it out in capex or something like that. reason, they are choosing to keep that closer to their chest right now. what is interesting is if you look at what is happening in the next five years, it is not definite. there are dividend swap products you can trade. futures, another chart is looking at expected dividend
growth rates in the next five years. what they do is basically interpolate an annual chain based on what people are paying now for dividend futures and expected dividend growth. it is not looking good. less than 1% growth. either that will have to give or you have earning expectations that will have to give. we will see what happens. carol: my guess is the executives will be asked about it. thank you so much. our bloomberg news stocks team. coming up, facebook just --ounced a huge milestone as at the annual conference. emily chang is sitting down with the company's chief technology officer next. ♪
incomplete, unauthorized, and in accurate and the data does not provide proper context. that is what is being said in a statement to bloomberg news. the flurry of activity is all around the annual conference. emily, all yours. emily: thank you. the facebook ceo is joining us live in a you have had quite a roll here in the past couple of days. some big ideas. mark zuckerberg laid out his tenure plan. drones, satellites. some more meat on the bones in terms of how we get there. it tog of a challenge is marry all of these things under the facebook umbra left? >> the fun thing about it is how line they are. we are trying to connect the world, making it easier for people to learn about each other and the world.
building artificial intelligence tools to make your deal with that giant inbox you have or all the information online, we demoed some vr stuff on stage could have how you an amazing experience of someone even if they are 30 miles away. emily: you brought a selfie stick on stage and it is a moment when people realized, i now kind of get how you and i could have a vr experience when we are in totally different places. >> yes. it was a lot of fun. we have been doing this for a while and it was a fun opportunity. colleague 30 miles away and we took photo tour is in london. take a selfieo and remember the time we had together just to take a selfie there. we can point at things together and look over and experience it. withre really there
someone ended that is amazing. regina to run a hardware effort. what exactly will she be working on? is it going to be ai or something beyond that? >> we are fortunate to have her and she will fill in a lot of the vision. there are so many things we want to embark on she will start kicking off the new initiatives. it is early because she has not gone into the building yet. to really achieve the big 10 year mission that was set out for us. broadly, do you see her working beyond outside of these scenes? yes, she will be going things a lot, and everything we do is here to connect the world. a lot is under that umbrella. she will be doing things you have not seen from us which may
be confusing from the beginning as people put together the pieces but it all come together in terms of how it all comes together for our mission. emily: we will be able to understand actual content, how long until we get to the future and what does that look like? week a tooled last for people to have the contents of any thing read to them. we are ready have the technology today. in the future, we demoed some things where you could actually ored questions about a photo put your fingers across and tell you what you are pointing out -- at. tools to make it easier for you to sit down and say, facebook, i would like to see the score, tell me what is going on today. have more of a conversation. microsoft, aok, conversational interface.
how long until bots go mainstream? hard technical problems that are unsolved. i'm super excited, but we would like to say there are probably about a half-dozen more miracles to really bring these out to be truly intelligent -- intelligent things. getting to the future where you have the truly intelligent thing we can have a conversation with, it is years away. emily: this is something that has been done for a long time. what inspiration have you gotten from china and we chat? >> between what's at and facebook messenger, 15 million messages are spent. these seeing people use tools and you are able to send a quick message rather than dealing with -- it is easier for people to interface with the world. emily: we have reported personal sharing is down on facebook, as opposed to news or article
sharing and what has happened with personal sharing and what are you doing algorithmically? what do you want to be happening? >> so many things are happening at once. people watching hundreds of millions of hours of live video and a lot more news being consumed a lot of things are happening where people are sending private match it is -- private messages. a lot is happening and it will be interesting to see with how this all shakes out. emily: what are you going for? >> what people want. the right medium for the right conversation. there are times where you have a one-on-one conversation and times when you want to share it -- something with your friends and times when you want to share it with the whole world. probably an experience for each of those that we want to make sure it is the right one. emily: what is the goal for live video? do you think facebook could become a hub for live?
think you are already seeing this. on -- tons of live video facebook. almost a million people viewed simultaneously. you're already on facebook and now you get a window into the world, which is quite amazing. emily: all right. facebook ceo mike here. lots more exciting stuff happening here throughout the day. carol: emily, thank you. that is it for bloomberg markets. the market closes coming up next. minutes until the close, holding onto the eyes of the session. almost 3% off 2%, up on the dow. netflix one and a quarter percent lower. ♪
♪ stocksod rally underway, closing higher. the s&p at its highest level since early december. joe: the question is "what'd you miss?" scarlet: investors look ahead to a meeting of opec members. our guest says, don't believe the hype. joe: bank of america and wells fargo report tomorrow, how bad energy loans are weighing on the banks? alix: we have the three charts that you can't miss. a banner day for the dow, up 180 points, 2016 highs. still in a range, but the top end of the range for this year.