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tv   Countdown  Bloomberg  April 14, 2016 1:00am-2:31am EDT

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singapore's of supplies at move. they promise in asia wide currency rout. the boj says the market would have been worth it without negative rates. but they say it could be detrimental to japanese lenders. and a brexit concerns cast a long shadow. stirling is on a volatile ride and their last meeting. ♪ anna: manus: you are welcome to
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"countdown." anna: welcome to the program, everybody. let's start with the surprise move. this time by the singapore monetary authority. they are their monetary policy. this is a trade dependent city. therefore, it has to cross into many asset classes. manus: what struck me this morning was the singaporeans moving back to policy they had in 2008. necessarilymeans everybody is going back. but this is a reversion. the ecb had a step back and policy. the next thing you'll ask yourself, is kuroda there? there is a limit to the negative buy. the singapores sling.
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you have the singapore dollar, it drops. maybe that is the most impactful that we have seen. that let's bring some of up for you. we see the action in emerging markets and currencies. we have the new zealand dollar in there as well, and the australian dollar which was hit as well. -- there you are, some of those moves. indonesian, or new zealand, the result of what we saw out of singapore. piece to be is a had in terms of these currencies. was the biggest exposure and the biggest relationship to moves in the singapore dollar? that is definitely in the peripheral regions. we are back to crisis mode. the malaysian ringgit is correlated as well.
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oil is dropping this morning, stockpiles are rising. anna: this is the latest news item in terms of the dollar price. the oil price lived on a survey of traders and analysts trying to get some kind of agreement on the output. we have analysis of that story coming up. let's get to the bloomberg first word with rishaad. rishaad: new zealand central-bank sing a journalist leaked their surprises last a month. an independent investigation found a news hub media reported the cuts. although, the reserve back of new zealand said there is not evidence that it had any impact on financial markets it will be discontinued. for rate decisions. australian jobless rates fell to the lowest in two and a half years.
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that was compared to economist predictions of a rise. the signal to the central bank is unlikely to ease policy. chief investment officer goldman a wildaying to expect ride in the world stone market. not that much to show for it. the volatility will continue. that is the nervous investors. dump shares and even the slightest hint of bad news. he goes on to predict mid single-digit returns will continue. high debt constraint will grow in the world's largest economies. taking a look at new york city, civil employees exiting its $1.5 billion hedge fund investment. that could come as soon as today. amid concerns of lagging performance and high fees. and of course, the riskiness of
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this particular asset class. you can find more stories on top . anna: thank you very much. a quick word on news we had been waiting for in europe. the offer for their business by eqt has been successful. there had been some questions today about whether that offer some fall apart due to shareholder reluctance. onus: we will keep an eye how that continues. look at the price, pretty much up there. let's see how that trades on the day. a very good morning, the singaporeans have gone back to zero. how is that playing out the equity story? good morning, we are still
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seeing some pretty good movements coming through in asian equities. it is been a great week. the longest winning streak we have seen since this time last year. in fact, we are very close to getting back to the levels we saw before the first of january on that regional index. really taking that lead from a we saw on the european decision and the u.s. on wednesday and also of course they hope the strong gdp rate will be get that out of china tomorrow. it is pretty flat. we are seeing a little bit of a comingk coming through off of those earlier highs. generally, it has once again been the strong rates coming through. yen weakens for the third straight day. singapore is also having a pretty solid session as well. having a look at that singapore dollar you have been mentioning,
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it is down play 3% right now. -- 3% right now. this is always a little bit of tricky when the numbers seem to be a little bit manipulated. jobs in march6000 but they downward revised their february numbers. the aussie dollar is still looking pretty strong right now. positive, i very session coming through across asia. setcan see, we have every to moving higher. was basic material suppliers late in the game today. singapore central bank unexpectedly ease their monetary south. moving to a mutual policy of 0% appreciation in the local dollar. manus: that policy was last adopted during the 2008 financial crisis. show statement growth
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in the first quarter as singapore feels the effects of the global downturn and the china's weakening economy. anna: good to see you, talk us through the decision. the second unexpected decision in less than 16 months. singapore surprised a second unexpected decision. the first time it is gone neutral outside of a recession. all of that suggests economic conditions have worsened since the last central-bank meeting. said they needed to adjust because it's competitiveness has taken a hit. some say it may not be the end of the easing cycle. an inflation risk remains. the next easing could happen at the next meeting. got smacked it down, the most since january. singapore may be the first of many to ease.
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speculation for some other policy makers could follow suit. manus: haslinda, this easing a slowing economy. this is the first time we have this movie outside of a recession. what does the latest gdp report say? haslinda: well, it is gloomy. halt. has come to a the services sector is leading the drop along with factories. more businesses were shot and opened in february. when you take a look at bank loans, they have declined every month sent october. that is the longest period of decline in 16 years. there steadily lowering their growth. it is asia's financial hub, they're feeling the effects of a global slowdown. fortunately, it is more
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susceptible to global economic swings compared to most of its neighbors. anna: not a pretty picture. thank you, joining us there from singapore. japan's financial markets would have been in a worse shape if the central bank had not adopted a negative interest rate. kuroda did say this policy could weigh on the countries lenders. >> the negative interest rate has potentially other effects on the profitability of the banking sector. privateon is that banks and upholding assets. that could have a negative yield. ecb vice president defended the central banks negative interest rate strategy as a positive for the euro area. he said those only so much that
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policy could do to boost the economy. >> it is, nevertheless, important to recall that there are limits to the use of negative deposit facility rates. just assessing direct costs can mitigate these concerns, but cannot dispel it altogether. manus: let's welcome our guest for this hour. the chief economist at wealth management, great to have you on the program. let's start with the -- this ongoing debate about the effect of negative interest rates. ecb defending and the policy. in terms of negative effects that can have, what are your thoughts? are exceptional monetary policy that we've had since 2008 clearly made sense. there were couple of lessons to be tron from the great depression. at which time, the quiddity was not injected into the system. we all know what happened then.
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it has been great we have had all of this liquidity. it is a great they're taking this radical stance on interest rates. but, in what universe doesn't make sense to have this going on for so long? it can only make sense to keep this window open in order to let the government do the structural reform that are really necessary to produce a higher sustainable growth rate. monetary policy can only accommodate the price level. it cannot make the fundamental changes in the economy that are needed to get the potential growth rate hire again. manus: that brings us for a much too the viewpoint that negative rates have -- not necessarily reached an impact on the real but if we challenge christine lagarde said yesterday, who has the firepower to really change the dial in terms of global growth with
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fiscal policy? marie: exactly, it is obviously really important. it doesn't only -- getting the potential growth rate up again is not only a question of taxation. it is a question of the structure of the economy. i think this is really the world's biggest problem. and a sense, we don't talk about this enough. since 2008, all the major economies have seen their potential growth rates drop. in the u.s., it is currently estimated at below 2%. once we understand that, we get a different view. anna: are we measuring the potential correctly? marie: we do that in the mud of labor you have and the amount of capital, and obviously the productivity you can get out of these. with high rate of unemployment and underinvestment, you get a lower potential growth rate. this is really what it is all about. with higher potential growth and actual growth, we can pay off
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the debt and get people into work. anna: it comes back to the productivity question again. marie: well, obviously the u.s. has a low unemployment twice that.rope has imagine if we got all those people into productive work, what would happen to the growth rate. manus: one of the things not happening in japan, the nominal effect of the exchange rate. negative rates, you can see if you were to benchmark policy. 10%.en is up loan growth in japan is the weakest in three years. the ecb used new targeted on lending.focus could that proved to be a decisive dial mover? loan growth in japan is under
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pressure. a conditions are improving. [laughter] marie: again, i think the currency and the exchange rate is only a palliative. it should only be used to open the window up for the government to undertake the structural reforms that are appearing to be slowing down around the grove -- globe. we have been excited about china structural reform for a long time. now that looks like it is not happening as fast. in japan, as well, there was a list of things to do. he hasn't done as many of those as we would've liked. of course, in europe, as well. structural reform is a huge word . it includes so many different things. one of the economies dominated st the service sector, almo
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70% of the world economy is services. if we can liberalize that sector we could get a huge impact. anna: thank you very much, you will stay with us to the program. the break you the nestle numbers. it was better than the estimate. they're giving us this three-month sales picture. they are maintaining their 2016 outlook. moved, mind that easter so some of these numbers might be better than last year as a result of the fact that easter fell in the first quarter. people tend it a bit of chocolate then. big issue. is the pricing rises by 9/10 of 1%. to try to make their numbers, they have to be able to try to live to these prices. anna: they said organic revenue would be similar to last year's forecast. because, below the long-term target, because of the
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difficulty in increasing prices. that seems to be something they are -- to reiterate, if full-year outlook by nestle. manus: up next, crew to discussions. we look ahead to the oil producers this weekend. and the chances of them striking a deal to freeze. ♪
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anna: welcome back, this is "countdown." 6:20 here in london. 1:20 here in hong kong. per serving takeover of a canadian film distributor. broadcaster ind talks of but possible deal with the firm which distributive -- distributed "spotlight."
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both companies declined to comment. the executive of noble group says commodities market remain difficult as he presses on with efforts to refinance the company. chart aseeking to recovery in which their shares sank -- shares san useking as closely to the evaluation said he did not see debt costs changing. we change the asset side of our balance sheet. the historically when we have things like sugar mills and crushing plant you needed long-term debt. now it is most of our assets. as we forecast our financing go forward be actually think our weighted average cost is really not going to change.
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named head ofa is equity cash sales. north of asia at of equity sales and the global head of equity toategy and chief started say that business is set to go. the restructuring involving the elimination of as many as 30 jobs in the equities division. all that according to those with knowledge of the matter. that is your bloomberg business flash. anna: i never thought i would hear you lending your international news gravitas to that. oil has extended its losses as rising stockpiles continue to grow. meetinges ahead of the this weekend. ryan is here the analysis
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for us. how will the infantry -- inventory figures show up over the last 24 hours? how are they playing out into the talks that will happen? ryan: i imagine they can add some edge to the talks. basically, the supply glut persists. of 6 million barrels, that is a pretty significant rise. it is more than any of the analysts or economists be surveyed thought he would see a rise by. understand -- the opec ministers -- that there is this a glut out there. in terms of inventory it will last for half a year or a year. also have the production numbers out of the u.s. that would give a little bit of
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concern. we saw production fall by about 30,000 barrels, which symbolically took a below the 9 million barrels a day number. that is exciting. when the revolution began we were at about 5.5 million barrels a day. the supply glut is considered to be about 2 million barrels a day. i suspect it'll put them in an appropriately bad mood as they arrive. [laughter] manus: as if they are all hugging each other when they get off the plane anyway. not exactly the most loving group of people in the world. marie, let's bring you into the conversation. the recession was ever created out of low oil prices. $40 a barrel, what do you make of what we are the moment? marie: it would be nice if we would end the year around this level. prices is not good for the oil economy. it hasn't been stressed enough the benefits of these low oil
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prices. those that produce oil are suffering. there are more people on the importing side of the oil leak vision and they benefited greatly. unsatisfied with the growth rates we see today we should at least recognize it would've been even lower if we hadn't had this low oil price. anna: that needs to be shouted quite loudly. as we look ahead to sunday, we had a fascinating story the last 24 hours talking about, well comparing the proposed freeze levels with what is being pumped by opec at the moment. they'rers, it seems already fairly convincingly below the freezing level without agreeing to be. freeze,ey agreed to to they preliminarily agreed to it. that was back in february. that was at record highs. they are below that right now. impact? this have any of economists,p
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and they said not really when it comes to supply. we realized it could have an impact on prices, particularly if they go there and have a big argument. manus: when you see groupings like this, at doha, what does it say to you as an economist? itie: i can only think about is stressing how the low oil prices is saving the world economy. athink it would have been great risk and balance of payments crisis in countries such as india and turkey if we hadn't had this low oil price. thanks to the low oil price, their current accounts have improved markedly. therefore, we have managed to avoid a balance payment crisis. anna: thank you very much. we're back with more details about what is going on in russia during programming. president putin taking center stage today. up next, we will talk brexit.
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manus: a little bit of breaking vehicles ining japan to fix the back door. that is quite a bit of cars. ♪
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manus: it is 6:30 here in london. it is lunch time in hong kong. rishaad, good day. rishaad: singapore central bank unexpectedly easing their monetary stats to what was last adopted during the 2008 global financial crisis. themove to zero coming as financial hub feeling the effects of the global downturn and china's weakening economy. new zealand central bank saying a leak could surprise interest rate cuts next month. works reportera
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sent information about the cut from the media lockup on march 10th before the release time. there is no evidence it had an impact on financial markets. governor said the financial markets would of been in worse shape if the central bank and not adopted the negati ve interest rate. on thelicy could weigh country's lenders. >> our key challenges the negative interest rate could potentially have adverse effects on the profitability of the banking sector. the reason is that private banks with and upholding private assets. that could have a negative yield. rishaad: australia's jobless rate unexpectedly fell to the
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lowest in 2.5 years. that is compared to the economist thinking of a rising to 5.9%. this is a notoriously volatile figure which the analysts really get right. the central bank is unlikely to ease policy in the near term. goldman sachs asset management says to expect a wild ride in the world stockmarket. who oversees about $15 billion says that the volatility will investorss nervous dumped shares even at the hint of bad news. at the moment, predicting what to mid single-digit returns on stocks. they blame that on low inflation and high debt. that could constrain growth in the world's biggest economy. global news 24 hours a day from 2400 reporters. in hong kong.u,
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breaking news coming out of taiwan. the semi-eric giving us an update and they missed estimates. the net income for the first .uarter was against that was below estimates. the growth margin also below estimates. the operating profit for the third quarter below estimates. the operating margin coming in at 34 .6%. analysts going into this number suggest in the first quarter could see a bottoming out of tsmc's earnings and the start of an improvement in market share. we'll have to wait and see what they say about the outlook. they're keeping the capital expenditure forecast standing pat. will keep an eye on the likes of others. those are the reverberations you might see as the market digests these numbers. anna: let's get back to the life
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market action. global stocks making a comeback. the all country world index is % on the year now driven by optimism on china. yesterday, we saw they lived in u.s. stocks partly help by jpmorgan's better-than-expected earnings. asian stocks are following the global rally. the asia-pacific index is on course for its longest winning streak in a year. seeing these stocks reclaiming lost ground after a selloff earlier this year. its 200 dayve moving average for the first time since july. that was before we saw that market rout following china surprising devaluation.
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singapore central bank unexpectedly easing monetary policy. they said they will seek that policy of zero against an undisclosed basket of currencies. that is driven the singapore dollar down. it is followed the most since august, 2015 and has dragged other currencies down with it. finally, i want to talk about nestle. quarter numbers. organic sales growth 3.9%, beating the estimate of 3.6%. despite the beat, first quarter growth was at the slowest pace since 2009. nestle has struggled to get consumers interested in convenience foods. in response, it has been pushing into new areas which promise faster growth. itscompany did confirm full-year outlook. in february, nestle said it expects organic revenue growth to be similar to last year's 4.2
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its long-termlow target. they said it is hard to raise prices. the increase in pricing we got today was a mess. it against the stoxx 600 food and beverage index it is underperforming. nestle is down 5.9 percent year-to-date versus a 4.9% drop in the stoxx 600 food and beverage index. let's get straight to guy johnson was in the session at the moment. guy: a mantra that is a condiment or an insult. there may be some selection bias in the chart i am bringing you. here it in other inflation chart. spain's coreis is inflation versus the headline number. core is the white line. the blue line is the headline
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number. spreadu have this beginning to emerge. it is been the 2015 and is accelerating. it is spread between core and headline. such a big upn since 2009. the number of charts you can look at at the moment, a whole bunch of charts that show you that maybe you are starting to see the first inkling of inflation beginning to creep into the system. houses are noticing this. some of the big asset managers, probably too early to start preparing for this. the court number is only at 1%. we need to be significantly higher for that for central bank stocks to get excited. anna: is this a sign of things to come? arie: i find it astonishing that we want inflation all of a sudden.
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they have a mandate to keep prices stable. manus: hang on a minute, no, no, no we not going to diluted this. a little bit of healthy inflation, we are savaged. we have been absolutely savaged. you can't turn around and say there is a sniff of inflation we should start to panic. marie: i am not saying that. i am saying we should be grateful for these low prices. without these low prices we wouldn't have any increases, a very modest increases in real wages. next to low inflation real wages are rising 8%. manus: using the to pay off debt? marie: isn't that the ultimate copout? when you have no other ideas that is when you try to inflate your way. guy: we are nowhere near that kind of inflation yet. core isto this chart, at 1%, headline is at -1%.
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we aren't anywhere near that kind of inflation at this point in time. you need some wage growth, then put that into the system, that would be a healthier story at the moment and having inflation maybe generate will rage growth -- wage growth. we need some and to start the economy on a more positive -- maybe you are seeing some evidence of that. arie: this is not deflationary depression. this is a deflationary expansion. we do have 3% of world gdp growth in 2015. it is a complete different animals of the deflationary depression we had in the 1930's. people are making erroneous associations thinking that inflation is always bad. a much.rie, i give her she states with the program. guy will be back with "on the
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move." brexit debate continues to cast a long shadow over the policy decisions made by those at the central bank here in the u.k.. jamie, good morning to you. brexit casting a long shadow. the pound is where we see most obviously. do you see it everywhere? jamie: we do. our cat litters out. we have made adjustments to it. later's -- calc ulator's out, and our adjustments. there is a 30% chance of brexit, we have tried to adjust that market curb they stumble within the bank of england would have to do.
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the white line is market expectations. we used our+++ we expect there will be movement one way or the other. who was he other rates priced
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and the risk of brexit being priced out of entirely, or we will see people starting to panic. that is ever central expectation for how it is moving on june the 24th. anna: that gives us an idea of where it could go. manus: there is a great disparity. many of it has been between the economists, that is practically way out there. it is traveled around the world. it is so far away in terms of expectations. it will make up on the 24th of june and there is a little bit of inflation in the country big be looking at a very distantly different situation. isn't that right? marie: yes, also monetary policy asks for the lag. if you think your rate will be at your target and down the line you have to move a year earlier. the fed's timing with the rate hike in december last year think was perfect. moment,e market at the the economist at talking about rate hikes in early 2017. but then investors, if you look at those market metrics are pricing in cuts. highlight for us to disparity of use that exist at the moment. : the market expects 19. if you take the brexit risk out, it breaks market expectations to about 2018. then you have another year gap between those market expectations. that is explained by the different lens in terms of what inflation will do. thinking ins are the putational risk. it is different. manus: what the graphics would prefer, it is a strange --
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essentially, that is what the bank of told us -- bank of england told us they would depend on. relative to our g-7 peers, we will go through a soft patch in terms of growth. we have the slowest growth possible since 2012 was the buddha christine lagarde's comment to terms of trying to what abouthe u.k. -- in terms of christine lagarde's comment in terms of trying to encourage the u.k.. this is one of the biggest risks in terms of where we are with our deficit. this is a big risk for the u.k., isn't it? throught is mostly foreign direct investment in the u.k.. those the types of things that might look attractive if you were to leave the eu. anna: wasn't that weighing on the currency counter deficit? the big oil companies were making as much money abroad. isn't the solution we need to have those economist less
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reliant on oil and possibly picking but economic prices in the meantime. that is what actually would fix the currency deficit. jamie: i think that is pretty unlikely. it could be pretty wide, and pretty persistent. manus: we have great story on the bloomberg this morning. everything last year during the general election. a former trader saying he is look at everything and consumers a chance we could vote to leave a. that is below oxford university at 27%. do you trust the polls? marie: it is a sample, after all. you can't ask everybody. there's always a degree of uncertainty. i really think it will be very bad for the u.k. to leave the union. anna: thank you both very much. manus: up the next, with the
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panama papers scandal have been averted? we figure by check point software -- stay with "countdown ." ♪
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anna: welcome back, this is "countdown." merry early in the morning if you're watching in new york. let's get to hong kong now. just about lunchtime here. we have nicely with first quarter of an of the beat estimates. up, that it on an organic basis. the first quarter growth rate is his lowest since 2009 as they struggled to beat consumers
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interested in frozen pizzas and convenience meals. they've held talks about a possible deal. talking about rights to a certain cartoon. a quick word of a new story which is just emerged, a partner's bid for this was ,rouble services company shareholders will have another chance to accept the offer starting on april 20. early this month they warned that the takeover could fall apart as some investors -- fewer inspectors -- investors sold their shares and inspected. manus: give given anne a bit of a chuckle this morning.
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of the financial dealings with some of the world's richest and most powerful people. companies are keeping up with technology that could prevent similar events happening again. anna: more detail now, elliott, you've been speaking to the men in charge. elliott: i have come although i how he would like his name being pronounced that way. we were talking but everything from private security spending which he said is still increasing. we talked about the potential acquisitions and that's what the billion dollars of cash in the bank. they will spend that money. we could not avoid beginning by talking about the panama papers. the law firm at this end of that said it was a hack.
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others say it looks like a leak. i asked it something like the panama papers could've been prevented. know there are solutions to both. ,heratechnologies that we have if companies would use them they would not be as affected by this kind. end to end document encryption. whenever a document is created it is believed crooked. -- completely encrypted. then again, it would be stopped. company don't use them, and companies get hurt. >> would you be surprised if we didn't see more hacks of this nature? gil: part of it is human nature, part of it will all this happen.
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part of it can be reduced or eliminated completely with the use of the right technology. >> has the phone and raking off the hook -- ringing off the hook from the british virgin islands? il: the underpriced market is not reacting fast enough. it is also not proactive enough. --hink that is coming that for our businesses -- the need for security is a good. but it's also good for people to do what is right for business and what is right for life and not just worry about the leaks. it is good that we drive out of life not just based on that. short orself is not ,wo, worth some $2.4 billion aasked him what he thought as
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man of means the offshore funds. there are plenty of ordinary investors around the world who probably have investments via pensions which may be somehow withcted to offshore funds an even know it doesn't asked him personally. an investment of the nature he said he didn't really know. he had investment all over the world. he said he didn't manage his investment in doesn't know what he invests in. i guess is a good problems to have. -- those are good problems to have. let's get more on the fallout from the panama papers. now, specializing in tax planning and asset protection. great to see you, james. what do you think the long-term fallout of this is going to be for the industry that you work for which is advising people
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about their taxes? jamioe: i think it will be open kimono time. releaseseen that in the from the eu. the country by country reporting, which banks already bee at the moment will extended to multinationals that do business in the eu. they will have to publish on their website the last five years worth of profits, turnover, staff, how much tax they have paid. in every country in which they are doing business. anna: is that a bad thing? jamie: it is commercially sensitive information. it would be interesting to get their view on that. happen isthat will that this is part of the naming and shaming. understand, what is come up with the eu is not proposing any change in tax rules. all it is changing is the
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ability for the public to have a good look at what multinationals are doing. it will be campaigners out there with cap relators at home and coming up with their own sums about whether effective rate of tax is. manus: if we square the wagon on this that is what the penama leak has done. the reality that there is a world that uses vehicles to reduce wide -- tax liability. i could say as a shareholder and someone who has a pension investment this is a good thing. to affect legal means to reduce the tax liability. is that an argument that would even sold a moment's way after 2016? is a great argument and is being challenged right now. countries should be doing is looking at their own tax competitiveness. to give you an example, the
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states have a high amount of corporate tax. is it any surprise that companies are hoarding cash like no tomorrow. manus: tax amnesty in the u.s. who said you could bring money back in with that. funny look, it is really converting look unfair tax competition in offshore havens. but, what happened in the budget? our tax rate will come down to 17%. in northern ireland, from 2020 will be 12.5%. anna: different views on whether or not that is in the we should compete on. it is good to get your thoughts. up next, the luxury. manus: a little bit of luxury. burberry will release their numbers. a tough quarter for the british fashion label.
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on luxuryo, more saving to bloomberg. that is coming up at 9:00 a.m.. disappointing earnings from the luxury sector. plenty more on the luxury success. ♪
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one of the world's biggest food company's beats first-quarter estimate but sees his lowest growth since 2009. singapore's a surprise move. loosening policy prompting in asia wide currency rout. positive on a negative, boj's the markets would worse off without negative rates. but there is a policy could be detrimental to japanese lenders. ♪
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manus: you are welcome to "countdown." anna: welcome to the program. , somereaking news coming you can corporate. let's start with you na li with some numbers coming through. the estimates from analysts at 4.6%. the expectation was this would be driven by homecare and by refreshment. and that the drivers would be equally split around volume and pricing. that is not quite the case with underlying volume growth at 2.6%. that is the much in line with estimates. perhaps -- in fact that is just a touch above the estimate of 4.6%. it is being announced by the business in terms of that revenue number. against anlion euros estimate of 12.8 billion.
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going to these numbers, a lot of focus on the skincare brands they've purchased recently. with think of it as a european food business, and yet europe is not what we are seeing the biggest to growth. personal care, home care, refreshment, those of the areas they have been doing well in. they recently made some purchases in that area. now talking about the benefits of those expected to come through. the underlying volume growth to get back to that they do look to was lookingmarket for same the underlying volume growth at 2.6 percent is ahead of the estimate and present coming in at 2% just shy of the two performs an estimate -- 2.4% estimate. manus: some shocking news on the burberry estimate. they dropped off 1%. this thing going forward the forward-looking part of this statement talking about 2017, the wholesale side of the business will be declining by around 10%. 17 -- 2017 will be a
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challenging environment. we have softer travel to the heart of europe all on the back of the terrorism threat. there really is a concern about the margins. one or two of the analysts are saying. comparable sales dropped, the estimate was for a fall of 1% in terms of revenue. total revenue, total sales i should say on the second half of billion,come in at 1.4 that is pretty much in line with what the consensus estimate was for the second half of the year. those are the top lines and the challenging environment. fairly demonstrative in terms of the wholesale side of the business. the fourth quarter was obviously pretty tough with the decline on the retail side. christopher bailey is in
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focus at the burberry. this is a little bit about what the future is telling us. the asiansection -- equity session has been pretty positive so far. monetary authority moving its policy to a little bit off. that was taken as a negative story, but it hasn't weighed on the trading story. manus: no, it hasn't. we are back to crisis policy in singapore. that says a big concern about the global perspective of what is going on. kuroda is defending negative rates, others talking about the issues with them. where the singapore dollar goes, genetic impacta
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in terms of those regional currencies. . that uis where the real -- move inat's of has singapore, let's that the first word news. shery: nestle reported first caught a beat analysts estimates. of espressond coffee, sales rose 3.9%. analysts had expected a 3.6% rise. the first quarter growth rate is the slowest since 2009. nestle is struggling to get consumers interested in frozen pizza and convenience meals. new zealand's a central bank has -- anjournalist investigation found that a news how the media sent information about the cut from a media lockout on march the 10th before the official release time.
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they said there is no evidence of any impact on the financial markets. it was discontinued. the chief investment officer at goldman sachs's asset management says he expects a wild ride in the world stockmarket and not much to show for it. who oversees about $15 billion of volatility will continue as nervous investors dumped shares at the slightest hint of bad news. --protects -- dix mid single predicts mid single-digit stops in draw stocks. portfoliohe existing of hedge investment. breven-howard and perry capital.
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that could happen as soon as today. high fees, and the riskiness of the asset class. was funded for hours a day powered by our journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. you can find more stories on the bloomberg app. manus: let's get into the markets now. one issue is that the new policy, or the backward policy from singapore has been playing out. talk us through the equities. >> there has been big currency movement. in terms of how it has played out, there is no stopping this rally. singapore is seen is a
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bellwether. that could come through into this region. all ahead of the numbers from china tomorrow. games,some very solid the regional outlook outperform for the seventh session in a row. that is the longest winning streak since this time last year. he numbers weto t saw at the end of 2015 on this index. coming back after the parliamentary elections are rising very strongly today. more than aat this, nikkei,for the levels we haven't seen since mid-march. strong numbers coming in from a number of steel players. in australiaal
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doing very well. heading the other way is a gulliver in tokyo which saw its come under pressure and goldman delivered a downgrade. town by more than 1% agains the dollar. really leading that downward pressure we have been seeing. says boj governor japan's financial markets would of been in worse trouble if that is not adopt the negative interest rates. the policy could weigh on the country's lenders. is they challenge negative interest rate has other affects on the banking sector. but private banks could end up holding assets. that could have a negative
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yield. welcome our guest, alexis, head of equities at fund management, thank you for coming in. taiwan semiconductors missed, beret talking -- burberry talking a hard game. the question is, do we accelerate further had not gone to negative rates? is we are seeing a global slowdown in margins. the when you look at company's beating the like nestle this morning. but it is the of weakest first-quarter since 2009. goldman sachs could announce weak numbers.
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there are a lot of weak numbers. we believe you have to stick to find growth and sector and themes that can deal with deflation. we are in a big deflationary environment. manus: is it sector picking for you? when you are trying to find a safer havens. alexis: we're thinking themes. we are looking at everything. no traditional sectors. oled,nk of themes like which is a new technology. that is a big new market. buyers of commodities based in emerging markets, for example, -- supply chains ia
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type. it is a feeder into a lot of these businesses. i just mentioned taiwan semiconductor, they missed. the margins are dropping. beauty look at korean tech. believe there is more value added to korean tech than taiwan semiconductor which is more downstream. electronics,e some which has halfwits employees are - they have a lot of ip. are alsotions interesting. five times cheaper. you must have the same sales, but it is much more diversified. that is interesting. ,nna: then you look at unilever with the merging sales. then running into trouble, meeting estimates on gains in
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home and personal care today. if you are looking to play the consumer story, where do you look? there are some niche ideas to find the value. rather go tould retailers and consumer stocks in emerging markets. win of theou would largest outflows from emerging markets ever. those macro flows pushed all the stocks down. even those not commodity rated, we were looking at stocks in brazil, malaysia, which are consumer stocks which were a lowg very high with multiple. they had a discount towards you deliver -- unilever. many investors are hiding -- there is a lot of speculation today that brexit will rear its methuselah's head. london prices, high price gauge
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falls to 42 from 50 a month earlier. the anglo-saxon of session with owning one's own property for some use london to real estate. alexis: this is very particular. look at the companies owning real estate in london they have been some fantastic stocks. they were up 200% or 300%. but we are getting very conscious last year when there were trading above one of the highest ever with a lot of the rent prices very high. the management still believe it is low. the average rent is already at the top end. anna: are you talking what shorting office buildings? end luxury high
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part of the market is under pressure. you can cover i think twice the size of hyde park with luxury flats and construction. windy, and a lot of two-bedroom flats with balconies. anna: thank you very much. manus: up next, we talk about banks. jp morgan jumps. anna: we take a look at the road ahead, and the european banking sector. ♪
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welcome back, this is "countdown."
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they could be a little higher at the start of the equity trading day. future right now, let's find that what is moving around in the news flow. unionte: thank you, labor reported first quarter sales growth in line with estimates. offset fallse units in food. the company said thursday that consumer demand remained and volume growth slowed in the quarter. are pursuing a takeover of a canadian television station. the london group which to strip you did -- distributed "sp otlight." eqt partners bid for the swiss
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travel services company was successful. that is after the shares were tendered. shareholders have another chance to accept the terms. both of this month, they want to take over could fall apart if investors -- fewer investors and expected sold their shares. focused on hardware part of a push by mark zuckerberg to connect people in new ways. dowg -- sat sat down in temperatures go and ask about the new hire. are super fortunate to a lot- she will fill in of our ten-year vision. she will kick off those
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initiatives. it is too early to talk about what she is going to do but we will build a team to achieve t his ambitious mission. juliette: that is your business flash. about -- let's talk about banks. they posted a first quarter profit that beat estimates. anna: of the next, bank of america and wells fargo. caroline hyde joins us now. jp morgan beating estimates, perhaps not quite as dismal as thought. you're right, they weren't quite as ugly as had been expected. the cib unit did see profits
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tumble. but in the individual numbers, the fixed income market fell, but it was $400 million more than had been expected. it was about $1 billion more than the fourth quarter. equity markets revenue down 5%. had beent as bad as expected. overall, revenue fell 3%. all of this better than had been expected. they are slashing their costs overall. warns don'tigroup get too overexcited. yesterday.did many banks rose on that. citi says if they beat it is not a signal that every group
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will. manus: that it could be wells fargo or bank of america. what can be expected very quickly? caroline: anna we have both of e numbers out today. the overall profit could tumble net incomedjusted basis. profit could fall about 7%. we of citigroup, we don't start to get the big tanks until the end of april. until't get santander later. we get deutsche bank later on the 28th of april. deutsche bank could see them tumbled 28%. we are in for a bruising even though jp morgan did better than expected. anna: let's bring alexis back into the conversation. find much to like
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about the banking system right now, do you? believe it is much more secular. we intend not to invest into many banks. we believe it is difficult to value banks and understand them. they are very complex animals. s don't understand what is happening on their own trading floors. , there are threat billions invested. they're very interesting companies. they will grab animal attack the high fees you have in certain areas of banking. he rather focus on that. like companies with peer-to-peer lending to are extremely aggressive. companies investing a lot and software, and cutting costs. manus: there is one perpetual story but facebook.
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hiring a former darp director. zuckerberg is on a mission to monetize when you hit a billion users on a product. he is also on a mission for our wallets. why are you not more charmed by facebook? aexis: i think facebook is great company. but a lot of growth is already priced into the stock. between 30is pricing and 40% growth for the next four years, which is very high. monetize easy to artificial intelligence. or to monetize different rift, howvr, oculus do you monetize all of that? it is a lot of r&d money.
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its core business has some -- some people are spending less and less time putting personal notes on facebook. they're putting more and more news articles. they know less and less about people. it is more difficult for them to monetize on that. your shorting quality growth stocks. which of those do you think looked risky? onxis: we are quite cautious starbucks,nike, or that are extremely big today. they are trading at more than 20 times. a company like nike is probably north of 100 billion market cap. it is not by profitable. the bigger they come, the more expensive they get. anna: it is great to have you on the program this morning. manus: we are set for -- it will
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be touch and go whether we rise or fall. missed, but it is all about the coffee grounds as nestle. ♪
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guy: welcome to "on the move." we are counting you down to the european open. this is what we're watching, singapore slump, the central back into -- moves crisis mode. the currency plunges dragging neighbors with it. the story out of asia is interesting this morning. equity search everywhere as alarms on growth ring out across the globe. it


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