tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg April 14, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT
"bloomberg markets." ♪ carol: good afternoon. i am carol massar. here is what we are watching the hour. markets are moving higher. big news from hedge funds. steve cohen is starting up a new firm that will allow him to take outside money again. jones facing more than $1 billion in redemption requests after a lackluster performance. our airline shares about to take off. delta leading airline higher as the company is performing artists. we are just an hour away from the close of trading. stocks are fluctuating around here.
let's head to where julie hyman has the latest. julie: fluctuating in a tight range. maybe the tightest range of the year today. it will be interesting. so far, nothing unexpected has happened. we have seen gains and losses in the major averages as investors are weighing earnings and economic data this morning on inflation. changinghat is really the macro narrative very much. first, i want to take a look at the s&p over the course of the day and the narrow range. happenedlike a lot has . a tight range as we bounced between gains and losses. let's focus on individual movers we are watching where we are preliminary earnings that were below analyst estimates, saying it is seeing a weaker than estimated from china. regulations out from the administration on offshore drilling are those shares are down seven sent.
mosaic is down as we got supply andsaying demand and the fertilizer and agricultural industries will remain there for the coming year -- h&r block is declining after new proposal to have a irs developed a three online tax processing system would hurt h&r block. you look at it sector by sector, using imap, you will see the financials are the best performing group today and we are seeing consumer staples as the weakest group down about one third of 1%. that is the push and pull we are seeing today. even in the sectors, not a lot of big financial -- percentage moves. i say have been down at the bottom of the pack. you mentioned a fifth day of gains for financials. >> it has been quite a while with the down your the financials have had. you look at the various banks
out with earnings, jpmorgan rising in the second day in a row. missing estimates that increasing a willingness to further cost-cutting. with the will be out numbers tomorrow. the airline delta coming out today and saying it is willing , also out capacity trading higher, an increase in capacity as of late because airlines get a boost from low fuel prices. a little worried that might not be here to stay. carol: thank you. now let's get a check of the headlines at the first word news . mark crumpton has more from the news desk. mark: the search for survivors continues in japan following a magnitude 6.5 earthquake.
the associated press finds a disaster management official who says to people were killed and 45 others were injured. some houses and walls collapsed and water supply was cut off. japan's agency says the quake was centered in a district about 74 miles northeast of the nuclear plant. the only one operating in japan. say there is no threat of a senomyx. belgian prosecutors say a judge ordered mohammed and five others arrested in connection with the attacks in paris and brussels to be held for another month. he admitted to being the man in the hat seen leaving brussels airport when suzette bombers detonated explosive laden's suitcases killing 16. 16 other people die that morning when another bomber blew himself up on a brussels subway train. a cbs news poll shows 63% of republican voters want donald trump to support the party's nominee even if he arrives at
the convention in cleveland with most delegates but short of the number needed to clinch the nomination. one third of voters surveyed say the billionaire should run as an independent if he is denied the party's nomination. nationally, mr. trump hold a double-digit lead over ted cruz. the democratic party and hillary clinton's presidential campaign are reportedly planning to sue the state of arizona over voting rights. the suit will be filed tomorrow and focuses on last month's presidential primary. in some cases, thousands of residents had to wait as long as five hours to cast their ballots. powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i am mark crumpton. back to you. carol: two stories in the world of hedge funds making news at tos hour. clients are asking
pull more than $1 million from the hedge fund. three years of lackluster returns. cohen will be able to raise outside cash from investors before the end of his two-year ban from the money management industry. steve cohen joins us from washington. also with us is our own hedge fund reporter. he broke the story. a lot is going on. let me take it off with you. ago, a a couple of years lot of problems with regulators, they had us -- they had a settlement. and he can manage money again for outside investors. manage them himself, but they included a provision into the settlement that allows him to own a firm that manages outside money and all the officeves at his family
are going to be running the new firm that manages outside capitals. cohen will not have a supervisory role, is that correct? >> that is right. he will not be managing any of themoney or involved in overall, day-to-day management of the firm. >> it sounds like when he negotiated the settlement, it was pro-steve cohen to some extent. >> yes, i would say so. fcc was supposed to be seeking a lifetime ban on:'s involvement in the industry and then they cut that the to two years in settlement and in the settlement includes a provision that , kind ofallows him to in an indirect way, raise outside capital.
going on have got that with steve cohen and that is fascinating. and you broke that story from bloomberg news, he has not been having a great period in terms of returns. dichotomy of steve cohen seemingly involved in the new monitor -- money management venture, at the same time, it looks like he is seeing some outflows. yes, his investors asked to pull more than $1 billion. this year, he is down about 2.8% in the first quarter. carol: 2.8% means nothing against the fact. what does it mean against his peers? actually made money in 2015 and in 2014 as well. the deal is not so much that the returns are horrible. they are just not as exciting. paying the fee of being in hedge fund if you are just kind of waltzing around -- waltzing along?
classic has to do with strategy. the funds have not done well in this environment. quite an they have done poorly 2008. sends ajit -- average hedge fund has made money three times. you are partly getting grouped in with an out-of-favor strategy. also, so much money in the past. the tutor has been around 36 years. they did really well during the crisis. it takes investors a long time to come around and say, it is just not cutting me -- cutting it for me anymore. carol: talk arrested, and what we know about the new firm that will be allowed to take out money. any idea in terms of what kind of investment they will be investing in? >> they said in their registration with the sec that they are initially going to
securities,quid nonpublic securities. they also have leeway to going to a lot of other markets, commodities and currencies, bank loans, sovereign debt. .uite a wide range and they say and they say in the filing, there are basically no restrictions on what the new funds are investing. carol: why he -- while he has had separate strategies, he is known for trading stocks. >> it sounds like he is not going to have a supervisory role. come 2018, he could not handle any outside money and that he is free to do it? >> certainly the chatter in the willtry is that he
probably want to come back. i think that is the broad consensus. he went out on a poor note after years and years of spectacular returns. annualized returns of close to 30%. they want to invest with him. >> i think it is a bit of an ego play. he is kind of coming back as a prodigal son of the industry. i think he is expecting to come back. they obviously have not said anything to that regard, but that is the word on the street here it >> it is fascinating. steve cohen, certainly some interesting things going on. thank you so much. andthanks also to miles also bloomberg news there in the washington bureau. coming up in the next 20 minutes, we talk airlines. does the prophet landing ahead of estimates with fuel prices offsetting revenue from overseas
pairing a lot of their losses. miller is speaking at an investor meeting in chicago and announced he is eying valiant shares her the stock could double providing some support under it. valeant shares have been hammered in the past year, down about 84%. being investigated for drug will be going ceo do testimony,s to giving a deposition to the senate committee happening on april 18. the investigation is in controversy but will miller is showing interest. it is time for a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. carlisle is said to be in serious talks to find -- to buy assets and halliburton according to dow jones citing people familiar with the matter. the businesses may be worth $7 billion. the companies are trying to keep
antitrust regulators from the deal. receiving interest from several , oil and natural gas assets, it is selling according to people familiar with the matter. the company includes energy and raging river exploration. the book -- the book has been focused on light oil property, produce 88% of-- liquids. provided into three main packages, and you can see husky up about 2.5%. shareholders voting in protest after the decision to award the ceo a 20% pay increase. company reported a record net loss and announced thousands of job cuts to more than 69% of shareholders voting by proxy and rejected the report. that is your update. are upof delta airline today. julie mentioned that earlier
after the company reported a first-quarter profit that beat estimates. the airline says cheaper fuel is helping softer demand for currency. here to talk about the result, george ferguson. big driver for delta. what is going on right now? where then the phase gains have improved earnings a lot. a lot of them have used lower fuel prices to lower fares and take market share. markets are not deteriorating year-over-year but the growth was the lowest we have seen from delta in a number of quarters. salariesarting to see rising. they are sort of getting attacked. worth it for them for airlines to reduce fares?
does it improve market shares typically? >> right now, the north american business is their most profitable business. i think it is hard for them not to want to grow that share, because it is quite possible they will add a lot of cash flow, preface to the bottom line. i think if they were all acting in their best interest, they would probably try to maintain capacity and keep fares higher. the flipside is the low-cost cost carriers bring a lot of capacity to the market. i think competitors are saying if we do not lower fares and we try to keep our market share, we will lose market share. we have talked about how smart the airlines have gotten. terms oflped them in pricing and the other metrics. but that has changed. >> you look at. and they are growing 20% to 30% or look at southwest growing 5%
to 6% this year, a huge airline. united,d american they're taking your leisure passes -- passengers and you have got to fight it. ishink what we will see continued growth in salaries at the rest of the airlines. there is a shortage of pilots and they will be able to command a higher wage. airlines are making good earnings now. they do not want to mess up relationships with their employees. latin america was particularly we get delta appeared american as much bigger in the region and brazil growth is negative now. that will roll through the airlines as well. in the domestic market, the biggest deterioration we saw in domestic yields yet at delta, that will go through the rest of the airlines. carol: when you look at the airline carrier, is there a name that set you apart from everybody else? this point it is
really hard. a lot of the stuff is macro and hard to avoid. carol: all right we will leave it there. thank you, george. ahead, today's options insight as we head to a break, a look at some of the most active names. bank of america technology among them. you can see some of those energy names. 21%k out seagate down about . this is bloomberg market. ♪
julie hyman's is standing by with how the options market is handling all of the action or lack thereof. tim, leadning me is options strategist at delta derivative out in chicago. been seeing things drifting. things have gone down here in the wake of that, which is not surprising. there has a lot of talk about pending return from volatility. do you think that will happen? >> certainly, today's price action is emblematic of what we saw a recently back and forth, no commitment to take it to all-time highs, but no commitment to taking the downside. i think we will get bigger earnings out of the big tech or
maybe the financial names to maybe get that lifting up again. the backdrops you are looking at is valuations going into earnings. i think you are looking at something or you look at vix versus valuations. describe to me your analytics that you're looking at there. >> absolutely. trailing 12 months, actual earnings, holding at the highest valuation long time, four straight quarters of earnings decline and yet the market is off of an all-time high. the multiple has expanded and ensure that to multiple, has got about the cheapest level so that ratio is the richest we have seen since 2007. that did not bold well over the next few quarters after that. i want to turne:
to your trade for the day on caterpillar. the correlation between caterpillar and oil. i made a chart of it. make this kind of correlation chart. the horizonooked at and looked at the correlation between iquitos. it has really come back. last year.ath the correlation is not quite 121 but he gets close directionally, a lot of days. i guess what is your outlook for oil and what is your outlook for caterpillar? >> absolutely. ,oing back over the past year up until st. patrick's day, almost a one-to-one correlation. 93% correlated. we have seen oil flatline and caterpillar shoot up 10% from that day. they correlation breakdown, earnings coming out of the end
of next week. for a caterpillar to come back for oil and i am not super bowl bullish on oil given the move. i do a trade on buying the regular may selling next week, volatility.s a 55 earnings, i'm buying a 72 and the bearish stance i can get for find 9.7. much clearedyou so still ahead, more on the trading session and that's the excerpt warning earnings next week. we will talk about what to look for and stronger growth in the u.s. adding new customers overseas. ♪ you shouldn't have to go far
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of the headlines. our news desk.t regulations on offshore drilling. the measures will require oil companies keeping a close watch on distant, deepwater drilling operations with real-time monitoring pushing data officials on land. six years after the deepwater horizon disaster vividly illustrated the potential has gone wrong. hillary clinton and bernie the debate-- back on stage once again tonight. being viewed as a crucial opportunity for both camps. mrs. clinton is trying to snap a seven-day losing streak and mr. sanders is making up ground. clinton is ahead by about 10 points in the latest polls. thess against the maker of rifle used in the sandy hook
rampage can go forward. killed in the december 2012 massacre. lawyers argued the military style weapons should not have been sold to a civilian. colorado state is predicting a near average 2016 and went extorting -- atlantic storm season. sees 12 name storms. five of those storms are expected to become major hurricanes. he does of them, major systems or category three or higher. news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more them 150 news bureaus around the world. markets are closing in 30 minutes from now. nasdaq with the latest. trying to hold on to a gain here. >> if it does hold on to the close.t is at its best
pretty major considering a few weeks ago, the nasdaq was one away from the bear market. out. see how this plays one of the best performers of the nasdaq is american airlines shares are higher and the airline strength is helping other travel related stocks including priceline. shares are higher but also, positive checks suggest of first quarter report should be pretty strong on may 4. an analyst who has a buy rating also has a 1500 dollar price target supported by a long-term chart. the stock is bullishly above its 200 looking day average and it appears buyers are trying to push their stocks to the top of the range, suggesting 12% or so upside could be ahead. one of the worst performers on the day creating the tug-of-war there is seagate technology. shares of the maker are plunging
after a warning on its third-quarter report. revenues by 14%. gross margins expected to be worse by 2.7%. a list like one source, as was china. pretty bearish here especially jon runyan at ubs p or he is reiterating his self rating. taking a price target down $20 a share. from theanother 20% current level as a strong selling from laster could just from seagate technology below the sport of recent lows. >> what about at the nasdaq? any kind of multi-day winner? >> netflix shares are now higher. even more amazing, the stock is up about 40% from february lows. it looks like investors are really expecting a strong report, unlike the mixed fourth quarter report that sent the stock down. i spoke to cory and he says the
first quarter should be fine. about a planned price increase that could infect -- otherould in fact investors perhaps share these concerns p or we look at the stock over the last few months and we see the buyers are weakening and the sellers are trying to push this one down. it will be interesting to see how the report plays out next monday after the bell and along with the guidance. carol: thank you. stock -- netflix. joining us from minneapolis is michael olson, a senior research netflix p arevers nice to have you here with us. let's talk about earnings. what do you expect from netflix? >> week spent a solid report. the focus for investors is on international. they missed domestic and the
good news is it brings expectations down. as they inch closer to a saturation point, that is may be becoming less relevant. they are probably halfway to what will ultimately be 60 and 70 million u.s. subscribers. on the international side, we are in the early innings. it should be enough to sustain the stock. carol: they are still losing money overseas, correct? >> they are. whereare certain markets they have become profitable. canada, western europe, some of those countries are becoming profitable as well. we expect profitability to lag domestic profitability because as they enter the new markets, they have to do a lot more marketing. these are markets netflix has not been to before. did anyou guys interesting survey and took a
look at a lot of students. tell us about the survey, what you looked at specifically and what you found out. >> it is a survey we have done for over a decade. this time around, it was about 600 500 -- 6500 high school students. gauge spending patterns, one thing being video content consumption. teens typically looked to downloading and streaming as their primary source of online video were overall video viewing. if you look out five years, most of them expect netflix a particular, and by most, i talking to thirds of them, expect that netflix in particular will be the service they used to gather most of their movies. what is interesting even more about that, when you look at competitors, the next a guest segment was the other segment at 12%.
in the single digits. it is a huge difference. it speaks to when you have that sayingat demographic, this will be the primary way they are accessing the we rentals, it gives us confidence we can go from the 40's to a netflix is today in the 70 million range in the next two years. carol: the foot has got to have the younger eyeballs to catch on to it now and hope they can stay with it for years to come. >> absolutely. as i mentioned. we have a younger demographic focus there. some investors have been upcerned that some of the and comers like hulu and amazon, as they do more with prime minister nvidia will get more aggressive, even youtube and other sorts of content.
is a mainstay today and what it sounds like based on the survey, it will be a mainstay for the next several years. on top of that, you have the growth of international, which will be the focus over the next few years. carol: in terms of raising prices, netflix is doing that here next month, two dollars a month, for subscribers of more than two years. how will that help or hurt them? >> it creates a situation where there is likely increased subscriber turn, however, we think it is already built into estimates. part ofook at the back the year, we are assuming there is about a 20% decline into mastic net subscribers, compared to last year at about a flat net subscriber scenario. we have built in a significant reduction and i think based on that, we are not worry there will be a churn rate that causes
a domestic subscriber miss. on the other hand, as it eventually flows through, it helps on the revenue side as they get a two dollar increase in average revenue per subscriber. carol: thank you. nice to get some time with you , who covers netflix. still ahead, chinese stocks are rallying to their highest level in three months. it is the chinese economy back on a high-growth track or is it just the case of the government once again propping up races? ♪
carol: this is bloomberg markets and i'm carol massar. marketlook at the average off the highs and lows on the dow jones industrial average. nasdaq, just barely with the gains. ,he s&p 500 top three financials, energy, and telecom. it is time for a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. wrapsld's is eliminating from the menus. the company phased out large and snack sized wraps last summer. more than 14,000 u.s. locations. some markets are selling the chicken ranch version of the snack wrap but the sandwich type has mostly vanished, gone from the restaurant chain. premium congrats were introduced in 2013 but was not the big seller mcdonald's was hoping for. ban onk ended its
professional mixed martial arts. governor andrew cuomo signing the law putting the state athletic commission in charge of the competition. the move is potentially lucrative for madison square garden. hold an event there. the nba had a record-setting season. it broke its attendance mark for the second straight season, dry nearly 22 million and in 2015 and 2016. nba tv had its most viewers this season as part of the growth for nba digital. that is your update. first quarter gdp figures tomorrow. the consensus shows stimulus efforts have prevented a collapse but it has not completely stabilized growth. look at you miss will what is happening or joe weisenthal joins us now. it is not always easy to figure out what is going on in china.
definitely not. it is a rapidly changing economy. and there are a lot of questions about the numbers and the extent to which they can be believed or the extent to which they will be managed, but people are looking for another slight deceleration. if it is slightly slower than previously, that might reassure people that yes, they are slowing down but there is no collapse. that is not the only data coming out tonight and we are getting industrial production data, and i think economists are looking for a slight turnaround on those measures. tonight has potential. of china'sll envious growth rates. they are a developing market and you expect to see it. have come down significantly since toy 14 when they were breaking over 7%.
at they ares still going for. they're coming in a little bit lower than expectations. they have talked about quality growth and not just building for building's sake. you have to dig into the other numbers like fixed asset investment and industrial production. carol: people really like to seize upon to get a better idea. is exactly right. transportation via freight and electricity usage are these sort of hearty economy measures that some people think offer a better signal for the real economy than what these measures do. those measures are showing some signs of rebounding. i think there are indications that we are in a time of stabilization. we have got solid trade data that lead to a little bit of a rally around the world, it seems. and generally, obviously earlier in the year and late last year, there was all this anxiety about
the currency and evaluation. that really quiet it down quite a bit. carol: in terms of trade bounds and how it has come down. joe: it is pretty remarkable. it is to be much bigger. china is becoming more of a consumer nation. it is exactly what they want. less also becoming industrial, slightly. some of the measures like the electricity readings may have made more sense in a slightly earlier era of the chinese economy. we have talked a lot about moving money out of the chinese markets. we got the latest outflow data and it is fairly muted or do not hear much about the offshore -- the currency and the offshore market. it feels like for the moment, things have quieted down already. ifol: what kind of report
growth is down a lot, with that shock the markets? i think it would it if china is not the story it was earlier in the year and last year. if we got a bad number and saw the pressure on the currency, it would probably be a surprise to world markets. carol: thank you. coming up, the close of trading just minutes away. here are your major averages holding on to gains. i do not know if you can call it again when you're up 2.5 on the nasdaq. holiday gain again. same story for the s&p. some of thet biggest gainers on the day. there are individual movers worth noting. american airlines, petroleum, decent gains. certainly bullish this thursday. the market close, two minutes away. ♪
carol: markets closing in just about 10 minutes and us are trading rarely hire on the s&p and nasdaq, looking to close for a third straight day. i am calling it unchanged. julie: i think it is safe to call it unchanged. the dow and the nasdaq is down. the s&p is just about even. overallmuch movement for the major averages now. a tight range today. haveis a custom index we created that looks at swings in the s&p 500 on a daily basis. if you would like access, shoot me a bloomberg message. , the biggerhe chart the swing in the smp. we have seen overall a decreasing volatility. we have also seen a decrease in
the range. we could be the tightest range of the year yet today for the s&p 500. been helpingve matters today. we have got a lot of tech movers on the downside. carol mentioned aker hughes just before the break. the shares had been surging because of a report out from dow jones that carlisle might be interested in buying assets. and ge is perhaps in the running to buy assets as well. why would the stock reacts so positively to this? theiburton is being sued by u.s. government trying to block its acquisition of baker hughes. invest someif they of their assets, perhaps the acquisition might be more palatable. insaw a more muted reaction those halliburton shares. late breaking news on valeant, after a conference in chicago, bill miller making some comments saying he bought
the shares they could double because valeant -- assets could get at least 80% of their value of what they plate -- paid for them. valeant is not higher, as you can see. there it'sit declined considerably. valeant has been a controversial stock. it is interesting he would be getting in here. carol: thank you so much. let's dig into what is going on with the markets. run forom for run -- to stocks, dave wilson, our bloomberg news stocks columnist is with us on set. let's talk about the s&p 500 and we are early in the season but what have we seen? you consider companies that came out during the preseason, like not -- like nike. they add up the numbers for companies we have seen this week. 23 of those beating the average estimate for the bloomberg survey. whator less in line with
we have seen in the past three quarters. only 13 coming out ahead on revenue and that is a bit lower, 40%, then we have seen in the past. how about investors reacting to the results? dave: if you look at the last couple of days, the first big kind of sets the tone for the rest of the industry. we saw yesterday with j.p. morgan chase leading financial shares higher. you saw it as well yesterday, numbers come out and their shares gain. you see it operate today in both directions. highere got the airlines in response to the delta, and on the other hand, this maker is down here in seagate'eliminate figures are not going over well. where it starts to get interesting, you think if earnings are coming down and you are looking at a 7% drop or so out of being reported so far, you have to figure
price-earnings ratio will get affected by that. it starts to get interesting in terms of valuation. noting today the thing called the rule of 20. in theomething created 1970's, the days when inflation was running rampant. plusook at consumer prices the price ratio and if it is around 20, you figure by that indicator, it is fairly valued. carol: walk us through. the rule of 20. again, what are we seeing here? dave: at the inflation rate, consumer prices year-over-year, the ratio on the s&p 500. if that is around 20, at least by this rule, it should be a fairly valued stock market. you are saying there is more room to run. dave: right. the chart is based on projected
profits. there are choices in terms of how you implement the role. in this case, if you look ahead in terms of earnings and add that to the inflation rate, you are looking to a number similar to around 18.5. it has been below 20 since 2010 and it tells you we have not had a really it's -- a really expensive market. carol: is this a good gauge question mark what is the correlation? is it reliable? to the extent that you have seen swings in it. the chart was in the late 1990's. internet bubble in stocks, you see the inflation showing up in that particular indicator. market,revious bull 2002-2007, right around the 20 level. it amped up from that. you could see that is when of bed.ell out stabilizing at a lower level this time around. carol: big-name financials again next week. talk to us about financials so important to the market moves
here. what are we hearing? is cominggroup tomorrow and morgan stanley and goldman sachs at the beginning of next week. when analysts look at the financial companies, and you look at the overall figures, they are anticipating a 15% decline in first quarter profits. a will see if that becomes bellwether in terms of companies doing better. carol: thank you so much, dave wilson. that will do it for bloomberg markets. "what did you miss" is coming up next. minutes away from the closing bell. little moved on the dow and the nasdaq. this is bloomberg markets. ♪