tv Trending Business Bloomberg April 14, 2016 9:00pm-10:01pm EDT
♪ rishaad: it is friday the 15th of april. this is "trending business". i am rishaad salamat. ♪ rishaad: right, taking you to singapore and sydney. asia pacific market snapping their longest rally. , a deal to freeze production will have little impact. sony forced to hold local production lines. investors counting down to the data dump from china.
gdp expected to be an line with the government's range. do let us know what you think of our top stories. follow me on twitter @rishaadtv, include #trendingbusiness. david is -- what sort of mood music is being played today? david: we are looking at a fair amount of caution. momentum was lost into the u.s. session overnight. let me show you what is happening. , when tokyo25 opened up the #it, the yen weakened and the dollar gained the cash market, the
yen weakened and the dollar gained momentum. we are now down to a quarter of 1%. have a look at the japanese yen. you will see a spike here. we are still below 110 at the moment. the boj governor saying the excessive strength filter through has corrected somewhat. we are watching this closely. said, whenreport does the boj step in, at what level? half of the respondents said 100. that may mention this, a fairly big earthquake in southern japan , 9:00 p.m. local time overnight.
do havecompanies production facilities in that area of the country. sony being one of them. it confirmed it halted production lines in the region on safety measures. shares doing this. company that has production facilities there is honda, down about 1%. broadview, asian equities looking like this, mostly down. i mentioned the seven-day run. singapore, malaysia, taiwan opening up, volume quite light an important data point that comes out later on. rishaad: thanks, david. a huge day for china, a flood of economic data due out in about an hour from now. slowestikely to see the
pace of quarterly growth in seven years, but there may be further signs that the slowdown is stabilizing. what should we be watching out for? >> china's economy has not slowed this much since the first quarter of 2009 as we entered the global financial crisis. the median estimate of economists surveyed is for 6.7% from 6.8% in the fourth quarter, these are year over year numbers. 7.2% tos range from 6.3%, showing there is some discrepancy on how to read the chinese economy. the imf recently upgraded its gross saysile bill it is delusional to think china's economy is growing as fast as the official numbers suggest. 2007, gdp numbers were largely man-made and were for reference only.
more at electricity consumption, rare-cargo volumes, and bank lending, to get a truer sense of growth. the white line shows that in the you look ater, if the main things like electricity consumption, cargo transportation, and bank -- the, that economy economy would have only grown 2% in the fourth quarter, but the economy is much more diversified today. electricity consumption has declined and services have grown. steel and coal are now slumping. that's why we might want to look at the bloomberg growth tracker. this chart, the blue line right here, shows the bloomberg growth tracker pretty much in line with
the official numbers. so, the data that is due out at the top of the next hour along with industrial reduction, maybe this data is not as far off as we sometimes are led to believe. back to you. rishaad: of course we will have analysis on the economy in china later in the program. tweet us your thoughts at @rishaadtv, include #trendingbusiness. of the biggest chip in china well below estimates, and also pressure on the iphone. we have the details. is falling 2.8% for taiwan semiconductor after being in positive territory throughout the week. more than 10% and the past year, but today is falling, down 2.5% after gains all week.
this comes on the back of some disappointing results. hit ass just taking a demand for high end smart phones started to peter out. the company said its third-quarter earnings declined. forecast forrowth smartphones was 7%, cutting it from 8%. taiwan semiconductor first-quarter net income is down. seeing other smartphones suppliers grappling with the most pronounced slowdown in mobile demand on record. according to data, worldwide smart phone sales are expected to rise by a single digit for the first time. growth comes mostly from medium and low end products
, and demand for smartphones priced above $500 has fallen. the company expects china and other emerging markets will drive the popularity of cheaper devices, and that will help many in a global downturn. apple is currently expecting its first revenue decline in more than a decade. rishaad: thanks a lot for that. right, having a look at some other stories. the issue of privacy and another u.s. corporate. yvonne: that's right. the u.s. dropped his privacy case with apple. they are now facing microsoft. they are trying to stop the authorities from taking customers e-mails without their knowledge. step the most aggressive
in a two-year feud. the department of justice is not alloww to microsoft to notify customers. sell servicesto that customers can trust. critics call the law outdated. i shares falling. sources say the nomination committee will meet this afternoon to discuss personnel changes, including new directors to the board. we've been talking about retailer scrambling to fill this power vacuum after its ceo step down last week. the management of people comes
as daniel loeb has called for restructuring or disbursement of less profitable units while backing iaka. loeb accused the chairman of saka so hisemove i own son could take over the company. we will continue to watch that meeting. bank of america says it is go it further cost cuts as reported first-quarter results, expenses down to $14.8 billion. that has helped an offset in revenue and net income and sent the stock higher for a fifth straight day. profits still missed estimates as trading and underwriting revenue dropped, and energy loans soured.
the second largest bank in the united states says in quarters like this, revenue will be challenged and long-term interest rates declined significantly. moreeo says there is a lot to do and expects further job cuts. rishaad: another story we are tracking is hong kong's new watchdog, waging war on cartels. that is bloomberg.com/asia. latestrosoft's artificial intelligence experiment is causing hilarity online. ♪
say they will redouble efforts to bolster their global economy as they reiterated warnings about global risks. imf managing director christine lagarde said global sentiment is improving, but policymakers need to do more. >> there is plenty to worry about, but as i have said and have repeated many times, we are on alert, not alarm. we believe the global economy legacies, can regain its vigor, and become more inclusive, but the current policy responses we are seeing need to be faster and need to go deeper. global economic slowdown, we are facing major global challenges, forced displacement, climate change, and pandemics.
representsse three very clear downside risks to the global economy. rishaad: let's focus on that data and today's china data dump. great to see you. with this data coming up in about 50 minutes from now, gdp, everybody looking at that, retail sales, industrial production. what are you looking at in particular? at gdpink we are looking growth of 6.6% for the first quarter. we think retail sales remain healthy largely because of china's new year, and we do expect industrial production to be flat or show slight improvement from the previous quarter. yeah, and what sort of picture is that painting when we delve into the chinese economy?
>> absolutely. has been quite painful for us. the doomsday scenario that many people were talking about will not happen in china. a soft landing more than a hard landing is most likely. we think this year of consolidation, where the chinese economy is stabilizing, the next year things will finally pick up. it will only take up towards the end of this year. rishaad: doesn't the debt heard burden bother you? isn't that something that could hurt the economy in the years to come? eat a bigger problem 3-4 years down the road, but at the time, the debt problem is manageable.
-- it might be a bigger problem 3-4 years down the road, but at this time, the debt problem is manageable. weis well within the range are talking about, so i don't think it will be a problem at this point in time. t take steps , then it will hinder the economy in 3-4 years. rishaad: janet yellen has been citing china quite a number of times. when you think they will be looking at when these new numbers do come out? what did they do to as well? -- do they do next as well. >> we are really looking for signs of stability in the chinese economy. the amount of stimulus the chinese have taken, the interest factorts, those will into the chinese economy at some
point in time. our view is that the federal reserve will hike rates in june and december about 25 basis points each time, and their commentary will need to turn more hawkish as we turn towards june itself. rishaad: before i move on to your investment strategy and to getllocation, i want your view on what is going on with the crude price. we have this meeting in doha over the weekend. a january freeze is what we are talking about here. will it make any difference when january was a time when we had quite a glut, far too much supply versus demand? >> where demand is concerned, we are concerned that demand will not peter off anytime soon. it is just how fast or how soon this supply can be reduced. -- we think alks lot of that has been priced in where oil prices are concerned.
do not going to see another egg at lake up -- another big leg up. we think demand will remain constant and supply will drop, and that means towards the end of this year, anywhere between the range of $45 to $60 per barrel. rishaad: right, and asset allocation? >> we like u.s. equities. with the dollar week and oil prices in recovery, that is likely to be positive for s&p 500 earnings, primary riven by energy, materials. on top of that, we think hedge funds are where you should be putting your money. we think the sector can give you a higher return for every level of risk you take.
increased our hedge fund allocation by 20% from a few weeks ago. rishaad: great to see you. ♪ >> the stories making headlines around the world. officials in seoul, korea say officials in north korea fired a missile and appears to have failed. at least one intercontinental missile had been moved to eight launch site on the east coast. north korea is marking what would have been the 104th birthday of the nation's founder. the north has often fired missiles to commemorate his life. killed andne people many injured in a strong earthquake in southern japan. the magnitude 6.5 tremor hit thursday evening on the island. several buildings collapse, and
some people may be trapped under the rubble. the area is home to japan's only working naked or reactor. brazil's supreme court meru on official attempts to block the impeachment process against the president. the government has launched several appeals. brazilian shares fell over the court action, with some government figures admitting that they don't have the numbers to stop impeachment and sunday's vote. powered by over 2400 journalists and 150 bureaus around the world, this is bloomberg news. i am yvonne man. coming up, australia urged to deal with growing public that the for it becomes a serious problem. find that trying to out for you next on "trending business". ♪
rishaad: you are back with "trending business". let's have a look at australia. moody's warning the country needs to take steps to boost revenues and rein in public that. with an election do later this year, let's get over to paul allen in sydney. are saying the triple-a credit rating is effectively at risk? they did not come out and say it, but it is easy to see that by implication. australia has not had a recession in 25 years, but for all that growth, moody's points out there has not been a budget surplus since 2008. moody's expects the debt to keep increasing from 35% of gdp in
2015 to 38% of gdp by 2018. rishaad: right, are we likely to see any new taxes than when it comes to this budget on the third of may, isn't it? paul: that's right. the treasurer says the country has a spending problem, not a revenue problem, but it seems likely that tobacco will be targeted. it was only a couple of years ago when the treasurer tried to take on this budget problem head on. he ended up being -- it ended up downfallactor in his and the former prime minister tony abbott, so the current government will be good to avoid that. reforms bold talk of tax being off the agenda, so it's unlikely moody's will see this problem addressed. rishaad: thank you for that.
oning a look at what's going in the australian and new zealand markets. a move slightly to the upside when it comes to both. this is nothing to write home about, a shade higher, but against a backdrop with equities under pressure. to pull stocks helping down what is going on in the broader region. treating following that strong earthquake. industrial metals declining and swaths of economic data coming. coming fromd, gdp china, retail sales, money supply, and industrial production. this is what is going on right now. hang seng due to open up 2/10 of 1%.
rishaad: looking at other top pacific rallies snapping, consumer health stocks leading those declines. down as the the way yen extends losses. ,rude falling for a third day concerns that any agreement and ohio will have little impact when it comes to supply. two power plants shut down after an earthquake, but no damage to the nuclear reactor.
nine people were killed when the 6.5 quake hit the island. honda and sony have halted production at local factories. microsoft suing the u.s. justice department over privacy. it is the latest step in a two year feud as they try to stop authorities from taking e-mails without customer knowledge. department using a 1986 law to prevent microsoft from informing customers when their data has been searched overseas. ,he market opening in hong kong looking forward to that gdp out of china, shanghai also coming on stream. david: factory output, retail sales, may even get data on new credit. anyway, a fairly busy day on top of everything else coming out of the region. korean jobs, the only one out so far. overseas remittances, singapore
output out ofrial japan, exports out of indonesia, all mostly coming in the afternoon. some weakness in the offshore renminbi. the it is a fairly common site across currency markets. have a look at dollar-yen. it should show a similar looking chart, the dollar regaining momentum into the asian trading hours. equity markets as you would expect, trading down, sideways little bit at the moment, mostly flat or down. it actually a raised some earlier losses. that's not enough to lift markets. shanghai, hong kong, coming on stream, as is manila, flat. on the lighter side of things at the moment. it will be a very busy day.
the only clear lead we did get from the session in the u.s. were oil prices on the way down. that is ahead of the pending talks in ohio. -- doha. it has provided a floor for energy prices, but has traders thinking how much should we bake into those stocks. the growth number out of the world's second or first, fairly large economy, coming out. rishaad: thanks. big day for china. a flood of economic data due in 30 minutes, likely to see this lows pays of quarterly growth in seven years. even know, we may see signs that the slowdown is stabilizing. we have a look at that what we looking for here? >> maybe a slightly better number.
growth has been better than expected, seeming to stabilize over the last couple of months, positive on real estate. better numbers on inflation, , economistsl told are looking for a 6.7% read. i think the mood at the moment is things are stabilizing, even if just in the short-term. rishaad: stabilization is what we are looking for, but the questions will be raised about the veracity of the data. economists will be all over it. all we can do is look under the bonnet. let's see how services are traveling, how consumption is moving on, how much of growth has been driven by fiscal spending. rishaad: retail sales are also
out, and we should get some lending figures, too. >> if we see a big uptick in lending and loans, that would be assigned that monetary easing and other steps are starting to work and would indicate perhaps a stabilization of the economy. if we get a disappointing that isthat will show not the case. the credit numbers are some of the most important numbers to watch today. everything old is apparently new again, at least when it comes to chinese equities. after being the worst performers for more than a decade, state owned enterprises are back in vogue again. we have a look at the stellar performance this year. are the new winners in china stock market, commodity producers, energy producers, so
this is a measure of materials producers. it has jumped 26% since its january low. we are already seeing it as the biggest performer among industry groups in the index. rights the yellow line here, which jumped 15% during that time. also, energy shares are rallying, gaining 18.5%. bloated industries struggling with slumping prices and falling demand, so why are they doing so well? they are doing well because of chinese authorities or the expectation that authorities will do more in order to boost growth. gdp numbers coming out and about half an hour, and we have already seen the common his party give out various measures in order to boost growth. they have pledged to cut capacity.
they have pledged to implement more reforms. who are the biggest winners? are theset winners stocks that were previously written off as the biggest losers. coal.alking about steel, they've gained more than 27% since mid-january. slight downside today, but the gain has been stellar. chinese authorities are talking reformingg ahead and the sector. sourceslso hearing from saying they will allocate more money to local governments under a special infrastructure bond program, so all of this is fueling optimism on what the common his party will be able to achieve, and this is now giving rise -- the communist party will be able to achieve, and this is to these gains.
this incredible surge of more than 40%. we are looking at steel , theorcement barring benchmark product for construction, surging more than 40% on those expectations. state puthis momentum for the entire year? that is a bit tricky to say, expects wesuisse will continue to see gains in commodities, although we could see this fizzling out in the latter half of the year. rishaad: thanks a lot. a quick check of some other stories we are following for you today. may tighten rules for junket operators. sources say the government is conditions,ricter including raising capital
requirements to $1.3 million and requiring one macau resident as a shareholder. theould be another blow to world's gambling hub. a takeover deal with a chinese investment group, reporting earnings at the end of the month, sources staying the technology maker is still in discussions which would value it up to $110 a share. insurerswill include and financial institutions. the company is thy you'd that $3.3 billion. sam walsh has told the annual general meeting that he expects the price relative fizzle out. top miners and corporate's plunged under pressure from weak demand and a global glut. rio tinto will see up to
sales of 70 million tons of iron ore over the next five years. a global glut falling in the second half of the year. top producers in doha hot may agree to limit output. .e have a look they were talking about a market drowning an oversupply. the primary reason they have changed their estimate is focusing solely on u.s. shale. u.s. shale is starting to decline. weeks,past 11 of 12 we've seen that inching lower, and production is down. rishaad: how serious of a falloff is this? that is thea level lowest since october 2014. it is a gradual decline. the problem with the market is it still has that large stock file situation in the u.s.
we have production coming off, declinesso have to see for prices to move any higher. rishaad: the oil price seemingly range bound, coming down a bit at the moment. >> it is. two drivers have been sentiment and fundamentals. we just spoke about the u.s. doha.tion, though half -- whether question as to they can agree on a deal and implement one. historically, opec has not been able to stick to their targets when they had a target back in the day, so how it goes forward here, he will be interesting to see what happens on sunday. rishaad: absolutely. got to get you some breaking
news coming through. lloyd blank and fine of goldman sachs saying -- lloyd blankfein sachs saying they're trying to weather the storm taking place in trading and deal making. this is according to people who have knowledge of all this. the company is expected to report a steep drop when it comes to expenses, clamping down on travel and entertainment, and , said tol be job cuts include technology jobs in deferring some projects, reduce printing, and leaving some posts open as well. ride outtrying to eight years long bond trading slump compounded by market conditions. we will flesh these out for you as and when we get the details. microsoft developing a robot that puts captions on photos,
9:44 a.m. in hong kong. here's a look at some stories making headlines. united states launching wargames with the philippines, joint patrols in the south china sea for the first time. more troops and combat aircraft will be sent to the philippines to conduct operations. ash carter saying the u.s. not intending to be provocative, but expects it to deter uncalled for chinese actions. revelations about prominent russians and offshore banking disclose in the panama papers is no prooft there of wrongdoing and accused western media of trying to weaken his country.
vladimir putin was speaking on his annual: show and took questions about food prices and the economy. on last year's program, he predicted a rebound for the ruble. it has sunk another 25%. a new study says the great barrier reef cannot survive bleaching by ocean warming. if water temperatures rise and don't fall, the algae living inside the coral die. the race suffered their worst beating over the last austrian summer. powered by over 2400 journalists and 150 bureaus around the world, this is bloomberg news. now, some of the world's best rugby players are in singapore this weekend as the city returns. rugby's growing appeal across the asia-pacific and of singapore's rising sporting stature. let's get more and get over there to our southeast asia
correspondent. , rugby is definitely enjoying a surge in asia. 2019.rld cup in .ingapore is in the spotlight that withuss all of the outgoing chairman of world rugby. it is good to have you with this. it's coming hot on the heels of hong kong, surely there could be rugby fatigue. open newimportant to evenson asia. region, andial singapore is the right place to do that. hong kong has had a lot of
events, and now we have to invest in the southeast. singapore is the right place for that, a new stadium. how quickly is asia embracing rugby? , fuji, england, they have been there a long time. japan took a long time. a new rugby.e there are three reasons for that. the success in 2015 in england. it is very successful in asia. people to be an olympic sport is an important position.
get to the grassroots level to support training, players, coaches. >> the rugby union is betting on china, a multibillion dollar 10 year deal, why? >> rugby is the top spot for the world. with the vision and the strategy foret is an important sport the future of young generations, men and women. all categories of the people. what is the level of rugby and china now? how would you gauge success in china? >> probably it will be very soon in capacity with a big competition.
now,vest in the program but we also invest in the competition. better in china because they have a lot of good athletes at the moment. i'm sure it will be really soon on the top level. challenges are you playing in developing rugby and asia in markets like china? >> it is important for us to explain to the people that rugby is not just a traditional sport in europe. it is a sport included in all parts of the world. it is a global support, intercontinental. that is the position we have to explain to people, be confident with rugby. it is now included in the and education of young people around the world,
including asia. thann the world are more 19, to include a new generation to play rugby and invest in the sports culture. >> there is a lot of money in the game. in the last world cup, $300 million, but with money, comes the risks of corruption. what is the rugby union doing to ensure that it remains clean? grounding and rugby is to keep rugby clean. we have to keep that message strong. , transparency and governance. the second one, different
activities in different countries to explain that education and sport as a culture, not just a game. it is more of an education, friendship, camaraderie, respect. >> we thank you for your insights. to singaporeed this weekend. rishaad: i can't make it, but have a great time. , coming up, microsoft developing a robot that puts captions on photos, but it has gone completely wrong. ♪
hours to remove business secrets from that case. a signll being seen as that a formal k's could be issued within days. complaints could be issued within days. the most aggressive step yet and a two-year feud. a 1986 law tong prevent microsoft from informing customers when their data has been searched overseas. microsoft says the law places it under an unlimited gag order and violates its own free-speech rights and the customer's rights to know. microsoft making headlines elsewhere, another artificial intelligence embarrassment. where having a look at what social media is saying about it. people can be rather unforgiving. yvonne: two strikes for
microsoft. it was weeks ago, when they'd shut down that chat bot that was sending out offensive tweets. now, not as bad, but still hilariously awkward. bot.is a caption you upload the photo, and it gives a caption out. they were saying it looks like a man in the tide talking on a cell phone. i started to put my own pictures up there -- thatad: i'm not really confident, but i think it is a cat. hamburger me eating a for a photo shoot. it says i and eating with a spoon. this one called me a man in
front of a car. i had a little bit more fun and put a photo of you out there. pretty wrong. they said, i'm not really confident, but i think it is a man brushing his teeth. it is you and your daughter. rishaad: when she was born, absolutely. caption bot, you had one job, which was to get the captions right. rishaad: this is something that will play out. has gotten them right for the most part, but it has gotten some hilariously wrong. rishaad: anyway, all right. coming up in the next hour of "trending business", moments away from a deluge of data. we will get those numbers and
♪ >> from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie rose." jeff: good evening, i'm jeff glor of cbs news sitting in for charlie rose out on assignment. hugh laurie is here. he is perhaps best known to american audiences for his performances in house. he returns to the television in their adaptation of the night manager. he plays richard roper. a billionaire international arms dealer. rolling stone calls him the perfect gentleman villain. we are pleased to have hugh la