tv Bloomberg Best Bloomberg April 16, 2016 8:00am-9:01am EDT
♪ >> coming up on "bloomberg best," the stories that should the business week around the world. the imf cools the forecast for global growth, and there may be a chill as earnings season gets underway. >> ugly, ugly. >> a big transport deal goes off the rail. big banks say they are cutting back, and facebook is making a big bets on buying. >> we have the ability to get news, interact with shops. ramy: from global trade to interactive capital to interstellar investigation, we
follow the best interviews. >> there is no bubble on technology. >> based on what i have seen recently, i am not going to be advocating it. ramy: and boiling down the brexit debate. it is all straight ahead on "bloomberg best." ♪ ramy: hello, and welcome. i am ramy inocencio. this is "bloomberg best konk out a weekly review of the most important analysis and interviews from around the world. as the week began, repercussions from the revelations of the so-called panama papers continued. david cameron is under fire. prime minister david cameron is facing lawmakers after a week of scrutiny of his financial affairs. he was forced to acknowledge
profits from offshore investments, but he told parliament he is not suggesting when he should publish that. david cameron: we already have robust rules of members in interest and the declaration. that is the model we should continue to fall you -- follow. >> it is not fun for the prime minister. mpdid quite a job answering selection today, he will not take this. mark: other questions that remain? svenja: there are other issues around what he published, or no idea he has done anything wrong. the situation has been handled so badly that the trimester -- [indiscernible] tocutting the gdp forecast 3.2%, downfrom --
from 3.4%. >> how concerned are you about these possible shocks? pullowth is below obstacle -- go below on a cyclical perspective. from a second perspective as well with demographic trends, volatility trends, not just in the u.s. but europe, even china. growth is below and will say that way from the cyclical option point of view. >> one of the biggest risks the imf stated today was oil return itself. what is a good cause that? >> we were back in january, we saw some jitters over china's exchange rate policy, over commodity prices. also anything can set off financial markets. it is hard to know what beats of cystic -- what the specific
catalysts can be. a major default, i'm large company -- a large company, a large company getting into debt. exchange rates, we have nothing like that will happen. we hope the markets will be resilient and take a long-term view. they do not always do that. >> let's talk oil, and the big eating in doha where producers are going to discuss a proposal from saudi arabia where they will freeze at historically high levels. oil prices have been fluctuating, bouncing back from earlier lows, wti above $40 a barrel. it took a dip after the u.s. energy department said u.s. crude inventory is increased by more than 6 million barrels last week. jonathan: are we going to get a freeze, or what kind of selloff
are we going to get? >> it is the same question the whole market is asking right now. we have seen prices run up really fast and a last few sessions. participants going into these talks need to deliver something to avoid a big selloff. it is still, what do you do about iran? it still wants to ramp up further. saudi arabia, the others, they need to find some kind of accommodation that allows iran to ramp up, or accept the reality they will continue to try to ramp up while giving a positive message to the markets, something that says, there is an agreement or at the very least, we are continuing to talk about agreement. otherwise you could get quite a shock correction. >> shares of j.p. morgan are up nearly 3% in the premarket after beating the street estimates. the biggest u.s. bank by assets
having the best earnings date since the second quarter of 2014. but first-quarter profit did .rop nearly 7% is this a clean win for j.p. morgan, or is there some text we are missing? >> i think it is a clean when compared to expectations, which were lower over the last month. you look at a typical first quarter for them, it is more basis thanon the roe this one. given we knew this would be a tough trading quarter, investment banking quarter, they did well enough on the revenue side and cut costs to a 60% cost ratio which was about in line with what people thought. one thing they came out during the media call was the news about the fed and fdic rejecting the living will from j.p. morgan, saying they only got this news in the last day or so. they are so kind of grappling with what it means.
that will be a big focus for investors making sure they can satisfy the regulators on the living will issue. david: at some point they need to grow the business, and going back to living will, can they do that with shifting and increasing regulatory pressure? michael: jamie dimon has been consistent and adamant saying they can grow at the size, they can continue to use their large deposit base to fuel some loan growth. but you know, it has been a few years since he will been waiting for it. i think that there is room for the to grow certainly on consumer side, and if consumer banking picks back up. they are going to have to show it. ramy: let's take a look into the banks that have reported today, this morning. we saw bank of america, out in a miss. blackrock come out in a miss.
as wells fargo was a slight beat, $.99 over 90, but not enough to boost the shares after we had a rally in financials yesterday. 7%, fixed income trading, equities revenue down 11%, provisions of 30%. this is ugly, ugly, ugly, ugly. corporate inventories have never been higher, and that is going to be liquidated. to the 2002 ramp in big tex inventory that got written off. i think the -- big tech inventory they got written off. we are talking hundreds of billions of dollars written off, and is just getting started. >> blackrock has built a little hedge fund manager inside the colossus, and as a result of
that, they are at risk of more earnings volatility than they have been in the past. they were still just a plain bond manager. you with the burning and revenue being more consistent than they are. the degree to which they missed this is a big tile he explained by drops of performance and speeds -- is entirely explained by a drop in performance needs. latest from china, the property sector saw a rebound. industrial production was ahead of estimates. we do have stability, but what about low numbers? -- loan numbers? inwe had the record surge aggregate financing in january. it slowed the business because of the new year holiday, and was expected to have moderated, but
his search headline numbers -- surged headline numbers. >> this leads to the stability narrative. we really look on it and it is all about credit. it is the old fable, debt and spending, enough people going along nicely in the nice quarter. allobal pariah, source of evil from global markets, but the question is, how long can it last? how sustainable will the growth be easing its tactics? >> and the debt keeps mounting. city, but to your authorities are tried to put curves and who has prices in these offshore cities. on one hand, fueling death by growth. it does not bode especially well going towards the second half of the year.
♪ ramy: this is blumer best." i am ramy inocencio. companies begin to roll out quarterly earnings and generally low expectations. or as a low -- here is a look back at highlights and low lights. matt miller has more. matt: for earnings in general it has been a bad start. it is the worst start since the financial crisis.
take a look here. alcoa is the most read story on bloomberg. biggest oil producer, cutting forecast for the manufacturing unit because of lower prices for aluminum, what you are looking at here, and because of margins for chinese demand slowing. of the china companies, they cut the production for the 747 jumbo jet in half. 26%. >> earnings from csx, the railroad company, first quarter earnings were up, but it is down from the same time last year which was $.45. in terms of outlook, csx sees shares declining, it has indicated as such that would probably be the place, because of low commodity prices. commodity that
collapse is hurting carriers like csx. from they got 19% revenue coal, and because it is down, we are not using as much, but the really a warm winter, so that adding onto the decline. national gas prices are so low people would rather use natural gas and coal. -- van cole. , missingyou can see it -- consensust estimate. more than 11% from the same time last year above $3 billion. sharesing estimates falling. the chief executive striking a cautious tone today during the investec or, saying profit will not be moved. what is the worry? >> they have to step up investment and price. what they highlighted was meat,
vegetables, fruit, etc. their sales have been missing out. they just launched these so-called farm brands to take on alco directly. they are costing more than most people would have mentioned, most analysts. mark: but the chief executive is into his second year. the turnaround is taking shape, isn't it? charles: they've done a lot of good things. sales were up for the first time in the course of four or five years depending on what country you are looking at. the cost has been cut. it is simpler, a better business than it was. burberry reporting a slight drop in second-half revenue. the terrorist attacks weighed on terrorist spending. bailey said the
external business climate remains challenging and he has forecast a drop in revenue of the wholesale units in the first half. pressure mounting on mr. bailey, who became the chief executive on may 1, 2014, so i made of this chart for you, francine, showing the big players in europe. how they fared sense bailey took over. you will see burglary is bottom of the pile. shares down -- burberry is bottom of the pile. christian dior and hermes up between 19 and 21%. the pressure on bailey today. today it is first quarter revenue beat estimates led by ness presovo coffee, but -- nespresso coffee. inability tog, the take prices, it was the lowest in 10 years. this means nestle is going to walmart and saying, we are trying to rise the price, and
they are saying we cannot. this is not happening. so that is the constraining growth. also unilateral. -- unilever. mark: it may give it some ability to boost prices? big recipe, a ingredient is at a low. it should be a better time. the question is, what do you do in the slow growth environment. reporting first-quarter profit that beat analysts estimates. she works you'll is helping overcome softer demand after the parent -- softer demand is the brussels paris attacks. >> we are rolling through the earnings, and the airlines have
to start to do with the issue of fares coming down. lower fuel prices, lower fares, take market share. we are trying to see the impact. margins are not deteriorating every year, but margin growth with the lowest we've seen from delta in a number of quarters. there's declining. we are seeing -- fares declining. we are seeing salaries rise. carol: is it worth it for them to reduce disability for the markets, typically? orge: the north american business is their most profitable business. it is hard to not to want to grow that share, because it is quite possible they could have a lot of cash flow, profits to the bottom line. i think if they are acting in the best interests, they'll probably try to maintain capacity to keep fares higher,
but the look flipside is low-cost carriers bringing a lot of capacity to the market. competitors are saying, if we don't lower fares and try to keep market share, we lose market share. jonathan: another beat this morning. citigroup coming out with earnings that exceed analyst estimates. >> as an investor, you don't have to have a revenue story as well as violation practice, that can be good. citigroup is a good example, revenue growth will remain challenged on a global basis. however, valuations are relatively cheap, and they can cut costs to show some level of profitability growth. that is what we will be dealing with for the next three years. way to gainis the profitability through cost-cutting, not topline growth? that is all they have to work with? na: they will sustain
themselves until the cycle turns. jonathan: looking at where the analysts think the stocks are going to go, help me out. i have this function on the bloomberg, i am looking at citi, dnd analysts suggest 23% od over the next few months. dothat really so much, and analysts need to get real about what is happening? think there is, because if you look at january and february, that came out of that. but they are still down. the intention is there, but a lot of things have to come together. that is what we need for them to realize that potential. ♪
"bloomberg best." i am ramy inocencio. notable company news, and we begin with facebook, striking a new course to expand its reach. facebook, at the annual conference, is underway this week. mark zuckerberg laid out a 10 year plan the 420 600 attendees -- before 2600 employees. zuckerberg: we can help people build bridges. >> of the big announcement was a messenger platform, software that will enable artificial intelligence to chat with customers using humanlike responses. >> now we have the opportunity to hail uber were lifted straight from the messenger, get your -- or lyft straight from the messenger.
interact with businesses, discover new products. basically all of those interactions you generally have apps,obile web and web you can now have in a much of messenger.ide >> are people actually going to buy stuff, to order uber, to book restaurants? >> i think bots will be the next major technology that changes the world. but just like with apps, a lot of early user cases will seem trivial. they are not actually what is going to be in the syntax, but as an industry, it is going to be better. >> the parent company of the hasy mail says yahoo! increased the number of daily bidders. does this make sense? >> from a strategic perspective of securing key areas in the
u.s. market, which is where the daily mail has had a fantastic success with male online. this is a very complex deal. there are other parts of the and the need to consume is quite more. it has mostly been in business. and now the daily mail is a company that spoke of this non-consumer, this of be a radical change in the daily mail, and they would need to get funding. tom: how pegida need this to happen? -- how bad do they need this to happen? : they focus on consumers. -- they don't really need this, they focus on consumers. >> the canadian pacific railway has decided to end efforts to merge.
the ceo states he wants to focus on creating long-term value for the shareholders, so what changed his mind? >> it is another version of debt ceiling of the week. the doj came out on friday and said, they want to create something called a voting trust that would run the organization after a merger well ahead of regulators. that does not make sense, or that would probably not be in the benefit of norfolk southern. even if they got norfolk southern shareholders to be on board with it, it looked like something regulators were going to block no matter what. the obamaen administration get stricter and scrutinize these really big mergers. harsher than they have been in the past. mmseen that and the general -- animus between the two, it never really got off the ground. discussedver really the issue.
the said the offer was woefully inadequate, but they would not tell us what that meant. so we effectively saw the deck stacked against us and said, look, let's move forward. his is not the end of the world. scarlet: among the stocks moving is chesapeake energy. producerck deck pledges assets for eight $4 billion in credit line. line oft only is very credit that did not get cut, but it got access to $2.5 billion in first lane loans. what does chesapeake have to do to get this kind of --? cash? kind of >> the company said they are unwinding that credit line, it itld take a lot of gold -- would take collateral they pledged and move it to support this current credit line. so the access was cut from $4 billion to $3 billion until this
collateral that can get us back up to $4 billion. they can also issue another $2.5 billion of additional personal debt. alix: this is part of a larger issue we have been waiting for a dropsy default as -- bankruptcy default as banks go to oil and gas companies. this shows banks do not want that to happen. spencer: the banks do not want to be the bad guy, and they recover money from the process. if you throw money into bankruptcy, you lose control. of jobore news today cuts, this time at nomura. it is said to be existing european equity operations. citigroup will cut staff in london as it seeks the true cost. let's start with nomura. does it seem it is closing down
as european equity operations? >> it seems it is significantly pulling back from that business. there will still be a presence in terms of japanese stocks and clients. certainly, this is a significant cut in the european and u.s. businesses for nomura. >> in two thousand eight, it bought lehman's european and asian offices. it has been expanding and contracting its overseas business. cannot make up its mind? >> it seems to be pulling back significantly from that. they have not been profitable in their overseas businesses. they bought the lehman business trying to bring that to scale, but it has not gotten to the point they can make money off of it. you are seeing banks across the globe pulled back to their home or areas they specialize in. you have seen that with barclays going back more to the u.s. and u.k. now you're seeing numeral pulling back more to japan. >> citigroup's coming staff in
london. what is behind that? citi has talked about the first quarter being down. you have to cut costs somewhere. i think this is more reacting to the environment and less optimism it is going to bounce back quickly. they announced they are filing for chapter 11. it wants to reduce debt amid the current downturn in commodities. australiamitted the platform is not part of the filing. >> they had an overdue interest payment peabody had to make by tomorrow. presumably, this may be connected to the fact they may not have been able to make the interest payment as early as tomorrow. their inability to complete a sale of assets is one of the reasons why i think we are
getting this voluntary chapter 11 bankruptcy filing. the company says they have sufficient liquidity to function elsewhere. online offices are continuing to operate. a oil is beginning to spike higher. to what extent will that rescue these companies? shale arel and not viable and increasingly the pricing of renewables. scarlet: steve cohen has founded a new firm that is allowed to take outside money before 2018. he is allowed to resume hedge funds under an sec settlement. alix: he agreed to two years where he could not be in a supervisory role in a money management firm.
his people are there, but he is not going to have any supervisory role until 2018. scarlet: what connection does he have? how will he have his influence? felt? >>'s money managers are there. they can raise money if they want. that is what we found out with this news. they are focusing on different , so this is private and illiquid securities not necessarily publicly traded. alix: these guys will be rating capital and trading securities. steve: has a percentage of this beachbut is on a somewhere and not doing anything with it until 2018. >> that is the idea. >> how a week of political turbulence left its mark on markets in several countries. next, the week's best interviews. it is all coming up on "bloomberg best."
ramy: this is "bloomberg best." i am ramy inocencio. it is time to replace some of the week's most interesting interviews on bloomberg television. exclusive conversation with peter thiel. >> if there is a bubble today, i don't think the bubble is centered on technology. neither in china nor the u.s. i think bubbles are psycho-social phenomenon. you have to get the public involved in a crazy way. had 3000's, in 1999, we tech ipo's in the u.s. in 2015, there may be 15 or 20.
the public has not been involved in the tech boom this time around. a little more in china, not at all in the u.s. i think there is no bubble centered on technology. bubble, it is probably centered on quantitative easing, money printing. that is a strange one because it permeates everything. startup tech stocks may be overvalued. so our public equities, houses, government bonds because it touches everything. emily: the number of startup deals dropped to the lowest level in four years. how does this cycle play out? how many unicorns are really unicorns? >> when you ask the general question, how many unicorns will a left or what happen in general context, i think the real question is what will be the next company on the scale of google or facebook.
will some of these companies get to be bigger over time if they succeed? i think we will have a successful ecosystem as a whole. if not, and will be in trouble. i know the trans-pacific partnership is important for the administration and you. how realistic is it to think you could get that through this year? i thinkan optimist and we can get it done this year because i think at the end of the day, putting aside political rhetoric, the facts are as american companies don't have access to the fastest-growing markets in the world, we are going to fall behind and be at a competitive disadvantage. as it relates to the impact on workers, one of the things one needs to keep in mind is that globalization, technology, and other factors are affecting our workforce. i think trade is being contemplated into that issue. we need to separate the issues and say it is important we help
our skilled labor force get the training they need to be competitive. but trade agreements also make the american worker more competitive because in the trade agreements are labor standards that insist countries we trade with elevate the conditions and pay they have for their own workforce, which is extremely important to american competitiveness. what price of oil is optimum? what is the optimal oil for the u.s., canada, saudi arabia? >> that is a great question because that number is changing a lot lately. let's answer the question for russia. barrel.15 a today, $10 a barrel. it has come down tremendously. the answer for the u.s., let's
say $55 a barrel, down from $70 a barrel. i think the key is you see big shifts in where the equilibrium fair values are. tom: i love that idea. let's take it to the marginal analysis of this price for russia and saudi arabia. who is the marginal actor in this strange equilibrium? >> right now, i would argue the market's view is the u.s. shale player. you have to restart production, why are you going to restart $55 u.s. production? tom: they have the responsibility of shareholders versus sovereign nations that don't have a player. >> let's say venezuela, you get a new government, it is $20 crude. there lots of low-cost crude. the key is you have seen a revaluation of numbers given what has happened with the dollar. the stronger dollar led to weaker currencies like the ruble and other emerging market
currencies which drive down the cost structure. you are spending $100 million of your own money on a so-called star shot. what do you hope to find with this project? extraterrestrial life? planets that humans could inhabit in the future? >> we will know much more about the planets in the nearby so ims before we launch, don't think we will fly blind. but at the same time, we might discover something unexpected. it is unlikely there is an intelligent civilization in the near vicinity of the sun. but it is likely there is a planet in the habitable zone. of course, that would be amazing to fly by one of those planets and send images back to our planet. erik: images. those are some
expensive pictures. >> well, it is expensive but also exciting. might pay a lot for one picture. erik: this is not an investment. can it make money, should it make money? >> this is a nonprofit initiative. i am happy to announce mark zuckerberg has joined the board of the fun alongside stephen hawking. his support was incredibly important. erik: is he contributing some of that $100 million? is any financial contribution he making over and above the $100 million? >> not at this point. but i think his moral support and endorsement is very important. to the third quarter of last year, we were seeing strong consumer growth, consumption growth. as we went into the december
meeting where we made a decision to lift off, my forecast was we would continue to see that growth. and more importantly, the consumer activity would be the strongest driver of a forecast for 2016 of somewhere between 2% and 2.5%. i was favoring a number toward the higher end of that range. that we sawncluding softer consumer growth in the third quarter, fourth quarter, and apparently in the first quarter. at least as the data seemed to indicate, the consumer activity is slowing. what do i make of that? i am coming to the conclusion we are seeing a reversion to the mean, that we are seeing a return to what was more of a normal consumer growth number
prior to the spurt we saw in 2014 and into the middle of 2015. it may be in a way that consumer growth is returning to normal. does tong said that, it some extent cast some doubt on the forecast i began the year with. >> does that mean not only is it not mandatory, maybe it is prudent not to move at the april meeting? >> i don't know what the committee will decide. i know there will be a range of opinions on making a rate adjustment. based on what i have seen recently, i'm not going to be advocating a move in april. ♪
i am ramy inocencio. relationship between money and politics played out around the world this week before they cleared the way for argentina to cap debts and return to credit markets. anticipation of a presidential ouster has brazilian market soaring. and in south africa, an investment firm linked to the embattled leader has come under heavy pressure. himhe crisis surrounding has deepened with several financial institutions distancing themselves president -- from his links to the gupta family. the family has withdrawn from the board to insulate it from the scandal. when do you expect your banking relationships to be restored? >> i hope as soon as possible. we have 7500 staff members in the immediate families which i would estimate to be about 60,000 people worried about their futures. i listened to some of the local
radio stations over the weekend imploring the banks to step up to the plate and resume normal relations. i hope i can get some appointments at the bank this morning and convince them to restore relations. >> are you talking to the same institutions that have walked away from you? possiblealking to new financial institutions that could work with you? give us some names. all caps on major banks have walked away from us. we need at least one to offer services to us. we will be assuring them about governance in place. firmsancial officials and have agreed to create a fund to support the country's banks. they hope to tackle the estimated 360 billion euros in bad debt italian banks are carrying. >> it is going to address the two fundamental issues hitting the entire banking system now. the need by some banks to raise
capital, and to try and reduce the level, this massive level of nonperforming loans. i think clearly right now, it is a stopgap measure. italy's biggest bank is acting as a guarantor leading the underwriting. it is a stopgap measure. francine: 5 billion is probably not enough. how big does it have to be to put most of the concerns to one side? >> that is a great question. i think investors would be happier for a bigger number. the fact is, how do you get to 300 billion euros? it is not like you can wipe these nonperforming loans out overnight. the vote by brazilian lawmakers has pushed the president one step closer to impeachment. she is denying any wrongdoing and accusing her vice president of a coup attempt. what can a new president do to substantially improve brazil's economy?
why is the stock market rallying? wire bonds of 12% this year? >> it is a close call. there will be over shooting either way. if she survives or false, there will be overshooting the markets because they will see the v.p. that takes over as more positive than he will be. he will not be able to deliver everything he is promising. if she does survive the impeachment motion, i think markets will respond negatively thinking she will be worse than she will be. whoever is sitting in the presidential palace in the coming months will not say the crisis. a turnover may open up a short window of opportunity that may v.p., thelowed the next president to get some low hanging fruits and approve some reforms. but it will be very choppy waters to navigate. win inargentina's big
court today. the contact the international credit markets for the first time since 2001 and payback creditors from the default. talk about the importance of the court ruling for investors. is it overall good or bad? >> there are some good aspects and then some negative potential presented spread the good is it clears the way of a problem that wheneen holding of 2014 they defaulted because of the judgment. lifting the in judgment allows in to issue -- injunction allows them to pay off the noisiest judgments against them. in lifting the injunction, they could tap the markets, pay off the guys, and start integrating with the international capital markets. alix: argentinian bonds are killing it. they rose to a record high of 122 cents on the dollar.
how long could the rally go for? much asver collapsed as you would have expected given the news. in a way, they just caught up with the coupon payments accruing. the overall situation of argentina looks good relative to latin american economies. scarlett: the price rally came after he was elected. to what degree does the panama papers with his name mentioned keep his ability to keep reforms on track? with him elected, there has been a polarization in argentine society. the enthusiasm that has gone into this, on the back of this announcement, there are still complications and ongoing litigation. this lifts one part of the problem but does not solve everything so there could be room for disappointment. ♪
this is the first thing you should look at in the morning when you log on to bloomberg to find out what is happening alone -- around the world. ii gives you net inflows and outflows out of equity bonds and portfolios. >> let's look at the industry groups moving up and down today. >> i know bloomberg customers have their goto functions. there are around 30,000. ourill keep highlighting favorites on bloomberg television, and maybe they will become your favorites, too. for fast insight into timely topics. take a look. in the european
union may be in for a messy divorce. the brexit from one of the world's most powerful trading blocs will happen if brits vote to leave the national referendum on the 23rd. polls show the brexit vote could go either way. here's how we got in this situation. those who want to leave the e.u. are the eurosceptics. they kept that u.k. from adopting the euro in 1999. they are more worried about immigration. the u.k. gets about 500 people added to its population every day. citizens have the ability to live in any country they choose. arguing to stay in is prime minister david cameron. he negotiated new terms for the u.k.'s e.u. membership including reassurances from the financial industry and the right to restrict welfare payments to migrants. he says the breakup would be an economic disaster.
the u.k. accounts for nearly half of e.u. exports. he says the breck -- brexit would create a decade of financial instability. the debate is with flashing markets and has set the pound tumbling. here is the argument. those pushing for a brexit say the e.u. has turned into a superstate eating away at britain's national sovereignty. the vote will likely come down to two issues. an exitomic risks of versus concern about the flow of immigrants that cannot be stopped. whichever way the vote goes, britain's long left-hate relationship with the e.u. will rumble on. on it outan check bloomberg to monitor all the latest polls and indicators. you can also find our quick takes and business news from around the world on bloomberg.m. that is all for "bloomberg best." i amremy in the sincere --
>> welcome to the best of "with all due respect." donald trump floated names as a potential running mate and paul ryan said count him out. bernie sanders had a huge rally in new york washington square park and the democrats held the debate in brooklyn. the new york state primary on tuesday, donald trump and hillary clinton beginning commanding leads in the public polling, not just in the empire state but in the other northeastern states voting next. new polls from the ps university and emerson