tv Bloomberg Best Bloomberg April 17, 2016 6:00am-7:01am EDT
♪ ramy: coming up on "bloomberg best," the stories that shaped the business week around the world. there is plenty of heat on the world's political leaders. the imf cools the forecast for global growth, and there may be a chill as earnings season gets underway. >> ugly, ugly. >> a big transport deal goes off the rail. big banks say they are cutting back, and facebook is making a big bet on buying. >> we have the ability to get news, interact with shops. ramy: from global trade to interactive capital to interstellar investigation, we
follow the best interviews. >> there is no bubble on technology. >> based on what i have seen recently, i am not going to be advocating it. ramy: and boiling down the brexit debate. it is all straight ahead on "bloomberg best." ♪ ramy: hello, and welcome. i am ramy inocencio. this is "bloomberg best," a weekly review of the most important analysis and interviews from around the world. as the week began, repercussions from the revelations of the so-called panama papers continued. monday saw david cameron under fire. mark: prime minister david cameron is facing lawmakers after a week of scrutiny of his financial affairs. he was forced to acknowledge
profits from offshore investments, but he told parliament he is not suggesting all mps should publish their tax returns. david cameron: we already have robust rules of members in interest and the declaration. that is the model we should continue to follow. svenja: it is not fun for the prime minister. he did quite a job answering mp questions today, he will not take this. mark: other questions that remain? svenja: there are other issues around what he published, or no idea he has done anything wrong. the situation has been handled so badly that trust has been eroded. betty: cutting the gdp forecast to 3.2%, down from 3.4%. saying a prolonged. of slow growth has left the
global economy more exposed to shops. >> how concerned are you about these possible shocks? kevin: growth is below on a cyclical perspective. high debt levels and lack of demand and access savings, and from a second perspective as well with demographic trends, volatility trends, not just in the u.s. but europe, even china. growth is below and will say that way from the cyclical and structural point of view. lisa: one of the biggest risks the imf stated today was oil -- return to financial turmoil itself. what is a good cause that? maurice: we were back in january, we saw some jitters over china's exchange rate
policy, over commodity prices. almost anything can set off financial markets. it is hard to know what the specific catalysts can be. a major default, a large company, a large country getting into debt difficulties. exchange rates, we have nothing -- we hope nothing like that will happen. we hope the markets will be resilient and take a long-term view. experience shows they do not always do that. betty: let's talk oil, and the big eating in doha where producers are going to discuss a proposal from saudi arabia where they will freeze at historically high levels. oil prices have been fluctuating, bouncing back from
earlier lows, wti above $40 a barrel. it took a dip after the u.s. energy department said u.s. crude inventory is increased by more than 6 million barrels last week. mark: are we going to get a freeze, or what kind of selloff are we going to get? richard: it is the same question the whole market is asking right now. the point is expectations have built to such a level. we have seen prices run up really fast and a last few sessions. participants going into these talks know they need to deliver something to avoid a big selloff. the challenge is iran. it still wants to ramp up further. saudi arabia, the others, they need to find some kind of accommodation that allows iran to ramp up, or accept the reality they will continue to try to ramp up while giving a positive message to the markets, something that says, there is an agreement or at the very least, we are continuing to talk about agreement. otherwise you could get quite a sharp correction. david: shares of j.p. morgan are up nearly 3% in the premarket after beating the street on the estimates about their earnings. the biggest u.s. bank by assets having the best earnings date since the second quarter of 2014.
but first-quarter profit did drop nearly 7%. is this a clean win for j.p. morgan, or is there some text we are missing? michael: i think it is a clean win when compared to expectations, which were lower over the last month. when you look at a typical first quarter for them, it is more profitable on the roe basis than this one. given we knew this would be a tough trading quarter, investment banking quarter, they did well enough on the revenue side and cut costs to a 60% cost ratio which was about in line with what people thought. one thing they came out during the media call was the news about the fed and fdic rejecting the living will from j.p. morgan, saying they only got this news in the last day or so. they are so kind of grappling with what it means.
certainly, that will be a big focus for investors making sure they can satisfy the regulators on the living will issue. david: at some point they need to grow the business, and going back to living will, can they do that with shifting and increasing regulatory pressure? michael: jamie dimon has been consistent and adamant saying that they can grow at the size, they can continue to use their large deposit base to fuel some loan growth. but you know, it has been a few years since he will been waiting for it. i think that there is room for them to grow certainly on the consumer side, and if consumer -- investment banking picks back up. they are going to have to show it. matt: let's take a look into the banks that have reported today, this morning.
we saw bank of america, out in a --, out and messed. blackrock come out in a miss. as wells fargo was a slight beat, $0.99 over 90, but not enough to boost the shares after we had a rally in financials yesterday. jonathan: revenue down 7%, fixed income trading, equities revenue down 11%, provisions of 30%. this is ugly, ugly, ugly, ugly. does that changed this year yet out >> corporate inventories have never been higher, and that is going to be liquidated. it is similar to the 2002 ramp in big tech inventory that got written off. we are talking hundreds of billions of dollars written off, and it is just getting started. erik: blackrock has built a little hedge fund manager inside its $4.7 trillion colossus, and as a result of that, they are at risk of more earnings volatility than they have been in the past. if they were still just a plain
vanilla stock bond manager. you would see revenue and earnings a more consistent than they are. the degree to which they missed this is entirely explained by a drop in performance needs. -- fees. angie: latest from china, the property sector saw a rebound. industrial production was ahead of estimates. we do have stability, but what about loan numbers? stephen: we had the record surge in aggregate financing in january. it slowed the business because of the new year holiday, and was expected to have moderated, but has surged headline numbers. right in line with expectations at 6.7%. enda: this leads to the
stability narrative. we really look on it and it is all about credit. it is the old playbook, debt and spending, enough people going along nicely in the nice quarter. a global pariah, source of all evil from global markets, but the question is, how long can it last? how sustainable will the growth be using these tactics? stephen: and the debt keeps mounting. enda: talk to your city, but authorities are tried to put curses that will cool house prices in these offshore cities. on one hand, fueling death by growth. it does not bode especially well going towards the second half of the year. ramy: coming up on "bloomberg best," more reaction as earnings season gets underway.
matt: for earnings in general it has been a bad start. it is the worst start since the financial crisis. take a look here. alcoa is the most read story on global wall street. it is the biggest producer in north america, cutting forecast for the manufacturing unit because of lower prices for aluminum, what you are looking at here, and because of margins for chinese demand slowing. boeing, not chinese, they cut the production for the 747 jumbo jet in half. shares are down 26%. scarlet: earnings from csx, the railroad company, first quarter earnings were up, but it is down from the same time last year which was $0.45. in terms of outlook, csx sees shares declining, it has
indicated as such that would probably be the case because it's at february earnings would drop because of low commodity prices. it appears that commodity collapse is hurting carriers like csx. alix: they got 19% revenue from call last year and call is down because we are not using as much, but the really a warm winter, so that adding onto the decline. national gas prices are so low
people would rather use natural gas than coal. that is also hurting csx. they are being hurt on so many different commodity runs. scarlet: you can see it, missing the consensus estimate. down more than 11% from the same time last year above $3 billion. mark: beating estimates shares falling. the chief executive striking a cautious tone today during the investecor, saying profit will not be smooth. what is the worry? charles: they have to step up investment and price. what they highlighted was meat, vegetables, fruit, etc. their sales have been missing out. they just launched these so-called farm brands to take on ld directly.
they are costing more than most people would have -- imagined most analysts. mark: but the chief executive is into his second year. the turnaround is taking shape, isn't it? charles: they've done a lot of good things. same store sales were up for the first time in the course of four or five years depending on what country you are looking at. the costs has been cut. it is simpler, a better business than it was. mark: burberry reporting a slight drop in second-half revenue. as terrorist attacks weighed on terrorist spending. christopher bailey said the external business climate remains challenging and he has forecast a 10% drop in revenue of the wholesale units in the first half. pressure mounting on mr. bailey, who became the chief executive on may 1, 2014, so i made of -- up this chart for you, francine, showing the big players in europe. you'll see that burberry is at
the bottom of the pile. christian dior and hermes up between 19% and 21%. the pressure on bailey today. let's check out nicely. today it is first quarter revenue beat estimates led by nespresso coffee. there first quarter growth rate this lowest since 2009. matthew: the pricing, the inability to take prices, it was the lowest in 10 years. this means nestle is going to walmart and saying, we are trying to rise the price, and they are saying we cannot. this is not happening. so that is the constraining growth. also unilever. mark: it may give it some ability to boost prices? >> palm oil, a big recipe ingredient is at a low. it should be a better time. the question is, what do you do in the slow growth environment. >> shares of delta airline up today after the company
reporting first-quarter profit that beat analysts estimates. she works you'll is helping overcome softer demand after the parent -- softer demand is helping after the brussels paris attacks. >> we are rolling through the earnings, and the airlines have to start to do with the issue of fares coming down. a lot of them have used lower fuel prices to lower fares and take market share. we are starting to see that impact. margins are not deteriorating every year, but margin growth is the lowest we've seen from delta in a number of quarters. fares declining. we are seeing salaries rise. crew salaries, pilot salaries starting to rise. carol: is it worth it for them to reduce fares for the markets typically? george: the north american business is their most profitable business. it is hard to not to want to grow that share, because it is quite possible they could have a
lot of cash flow, profits to the bottom line. i think if they are acting in the best interests, they'll probably try to maintain capacity to keep fares higher, but the flipside is low-cost carriers bringing a lot of capacity to the market. competitors are saying, if we don't lower fares and try to keep market share, we lose market share. jonathan: another beat this morning. citigroup coming out with earnings that exceed analyst estimates. cost-cutting mitigating the revenue drop. >> as an investor, you don't have to have a revenue story as well as violation practice, that can be good. citigroup is a good example, revenue growth will remain challenged for banks on a global basis. however, valuations are relatively cheap, and they can cut costs to show some level of profitability growth. i think that is what we will be dealing with for the next three years. david: that is the way to gain profitability through cost-cutting, not topline growth? that is all they have to work with? krishna: they will sustain themselves until the cycle turns. that is what they are doing across the board. jonathan: looking at where the analysts think the stocks are going to go, help me out. i have this function on the bloomberg, i am looking at citi,
and analysts suggest 23% odd over the next few months. is that really so much, and do analysts need to get real about what is happening? krishna: i think there is, because if you look at january and february, that came out of that. but they are still down. the potential is there, but a lot of things have to come together. that is what we need for them to realize that potential. ♪ ♪
i am ramy inocencio. let's look at notable company news, and we begin with facebook, striking a new course to expand its reach. >> turning to facebook, at the annual conference, is underway this week. mark zuckerberg laid out a 10 year plan before 2600 attendees. that included a job at donald trump. mark zuckerberg: we can help give people a voice, instead of building walls, we can help people build bridges. >> of the big announcement was a messenger platform, software that will enable artificial intelligence to chat with customers using humanlike responses. david: now we have the opportunity to hail uber or lyft straight from the messenger. you have the ability to get your
news, interact with businesses, discover new products. basically all of those interactions you generally have over mobile web and web apps, you can now have in a much easier way inside of messenger. emily: are people actually going to buy stuff, to order uber, to book restaurants? phil: i think bots will be the next major technology that changes the world. but just like with apps, a lot of early user cases will seem trivial. the things people think they're going to use them for now are not actually what is going to be in the syntax, but as an industry, it is going to be better. francine: the parent company of the daily mail says yahoo! has
increased the number of daily bidders. there is no certainty that a deal will make does this make plays. sense? alex: from a strategic perspective of securing key areas in the u.s. market, which is where the daily mail has had a fantastic success with male online. this is a very complex deal. there are other parts of the daily mail, and the need to consume is quite more. it has mostly been in business. now the daily mail is a company whose focus is not the consumer, this would be a radical change in the daily mail, and they would need to get funding. tom: how bad do they need this to happen? alex: they don't really need this. the main thing is the male -- mail online. they focus on businesses not consumers. this is opportunistic. it is all about securing a key asset. david: the canadian pacific railway has decided to end efforts to merge.
the ceo states he wants to focus on creating long-term value for the shareholders, so what changed his mind? jeff: it is another version of debt ceiling of the week. the doj came out on friday and said, they want to create something called a voting trust that would run the organization after a merger well ahead of regulators. that does not make sense, or that would probably not be in the benefit of norfolk southern. this looked like a deal like even if they got norfolk southern shareholders to be on board with it, it looked like something regulators were going to block no matter what. over the last year, we have seen the obama administration get stricter and scrutinize these really big mergers. harsher than they have been in the past. between that and the general animus between the two, it never really got off the ground. it never made much progress. hunter: they never really discussed the issue. they said the offer was woefully
inadequate, but they would not tell us what that meant. so we effectively saw the deck stacked against us and said, look, let's move forward. this is not the end of the world. scarlet: among the stocks moving is chesapeake energy. so we effectively saw the deck stacked against us and said, look, let's move forward. this is not the end of the world. scarlet: among the stocks moving is chesapeake energy. the shares are jumping by the
most in the s&p 500. as the neck deck producer pledges assets for eight $4 billion in credit line. alix: not only is very line of credit that did not get cut, but it got access to $2.5 billion in first lane loans. what does chesapeake have to do to get this kind of cash? spencer: the company said they are unwinding that credit line, it would take collateral they pledged and move it to support this current credit line. what happened is the access was cut from $4 billion to $3 billion until this collateral that can get us back up to $4 billion. as you mentioned they can also issue another $2.5 billion of additional debt. alix: this is part of a larger issue we have been waiting for a bankruptcy default as banks go to oil and gas companies. this shows banks do not want that to happen. spencer: the banks do not want to be the bad guy, and they recover more of their money through a gradual work off process where they can drive the process. if you throw money into bankruptcy, you lose control. the court takes control. mark: more news today of job cuts, this time at nomura. the japanese firm is said to be existing european equity operations. citigroup will cut staff in london as it seeks to trim costs. let's start with nomura.
is it closing down the european equity operations? >> it seems it is significantly pulling back from that business. there will still be a presence in terms of japanese stocks and clients. certainly, this is a significant cut in the european and u.s. businesses for nomura. >> in 2008, it bought lehman's european and asian offices. since then it has been expanding and contracting its overseas business. can it not make up its mind? >> it seems to be pulling back significantly from that. they have not been profitable in their overseas businesses. as you mentioned they bought the lehman business trying to bring that to scale, but it has not gotten to the point they can make money off of it. you are seeing banks across the globe pull back to their home regions or areas they specialize in. you have seen that with barclays pulling back more to the u.s. and u.k. now you're seeing nomura pulling back more to japan. >> citigroup's cutting staff in london. what is behind that?
>> citi has talked about the first quarter being down. it operations are down, you have to cut costs somewhere. i think this is more reacting to the environment and less optimism that it is going to bounce back quickly. >> peabody energy announced they are filing for chapter 11. the miner said it wants to reduce debt amid the current downturn in commodities. peabody admitted the australia platform is not part of the filing. >> they have $6.3 billion in debt. they had an overdue interest payment peabody had to make by tomorrow. presumably, this may be connected to the fact they may not have been able to make the interest payment as early as tomorrow. they are looking at selling assets in new mexico and colorado. their inability to complete a
sale of assets is one of the reasons why i think we are getting this voluntary chapter 11 bankruptcy filing. the company says they have in addition sufficient liquidity to to continue to function elsewhere. all mines offices, they say, are continuing to operate. >> oil is beginning to spike higher. to what extent will that rescue these companies? >> i do think coal and shale are not viable and increasingly the pricing of renewables. scarlet: where there's a will,
there's usually a way and steve cohen has found it. a new firm that is allowed to take outside money before 2018. that is the year he is allowed to resume hedge funds under an sec settlement. >> he agreed to two years where he could not be in a supervisory role in a money management firm. his people are there, but he is not going to have any supervisory role until 2018. scarlet: what connection does he have? how will he have his influence felt? >> his money managers are there. they can raise money if they want. that is what we found out with this news. they are focusing on different things, so this is private and illiquid securities not necessarily publicly traded. alix: these guys will be rating -- raising the capital and trading securities. steve cohen has a percentage of this fund, but is on a beach somewhere and not doing anything with it until 2018. >> that is the idea. ramy: how a week of political turbulence left its mark on markets in several countries. next, the week's best interviews. you're talking trade deals, tech bubbles, and the final frontier it is all coming up on. "bloomberg best." ♪
♪ ramy: this is "bloomberg best." i am ramy inocencio. it is time to replay some of the week's most interesting interviews on bloomberg television. we will start with emily chang's exclusive conversation with peter thiel. >> if there is a bubble today, i don't think the bubble is centered on technology. neither in china nor the u.s. i think bubbles are psycho-social phenomenon. you have to get the public involved in a crazy way. in the 90's, in 1999, we had 300 tech ipo's in the u.s. in 2015, there may be 15 or 20. the public has not been involved in the tech boom this time
around. a little more in china, not at all in the u.s. i think there is no bubble centered on technology. if there is a bubble, it is probably centered on the 0% interest rate of quantitative easing, money printing. that is a strange one because it permeates everything. startup tech stocks may be overvalued. so are public equities, houses, government bonds because it touches everything. emily: the number of startup deals dropped to the lowest level in four years. how does this cycle play out? how many unicorns are really unicorns? >> when you ask the general question, how many unicorns will be left or what happen in a general context, i think the real question is what will be the next company on the scale of google or facebook. will some of these companies get to be bigger over time?
if they succeed, i think we will have a successful ecosystem as a whole. if not, it will be in trouble. david: i know the trans-pacific partnership is important for the administration and you. how realistic is it to think you could get that through this year? >> i am an optimist, and i think we can get it done this year because i think at the end of the day, putting aside political rhetoric, the facts are as american companies don't have access to the fastest-growing markets in the world, we are going to fall behind and be at a competitive disadvantage. as it relates to the impact on workers, one of the things one needs to keep in mind is that globalization, technology, and other factors are affecting our workforce. i think trade is being conflated into that issue. we need to separate the issues and say it is important we help our skilled labor force get the
training they need to be competitive. but trade agreements also make the american worker more competitive because in the trade agreements are labor standards that insist countries we trade with elevate the conditions and pay they have for their own workforce, which is extremely important to american competitiveness. tom: what price of oil is optimum? what is the optimum oil for the u.s., canada, saudi arabia? do you have that in your head? >> that is a great question because that number is changing a lot lately. let's answer the question for russia. it was about $115 a barrel. today, $10 a barrel. it has come down tremendously. the answer for the u.s., let's say $55 a barrel, down from $70
a barrel. i think the key is you see big shifts in where the equilibrium fair values are. tom: i love that idea. let's take it to the marginal analysis of this price for russia and saudi arabia. who is the marginal actor in this strange equilibrium? >> right now, i would argue the market's view is the u.s. shale player. you have to ask the question when you have to restart production, why are you going to restart $55 u.s. production? tom: they have the responsibility of shareholders versus sovereign nations that don't have a player. >> let's say venezuela, you get a new government, it is $20 crude. we could go down the list. there is lots of low-cost crude. the key is you have seen a revaluation of numbers given what has happened with the dollar. the stronger dollar led to weaker currencies like the ruble and other emerging market currencies which drive down the cost structure.
erik: you are spending $100 million of your own money on a so-called star shot. what do you hope to find with this project? extraterrestrial life? planets that humans could inhabit in the future? >> we will know much more about the planets in the nearby systems before we launch, so i don't think we will fly blind. but at the same time, we might discover something unexpected. it is unlikely there is an intelligent civilization in the near vicinity of the sun. but it is likely there is a planet in the habitable zone. of course, that would be amazing to fly by one of those planets and send images back to our planet. erik: images. those are some expensive pictures.
>> well, it is expensive but also exciting. i think someone might pay a lot for one picture. erik: this is not an investment. can it make money, should it make money? >> this is a nonprofit initiative. i am happy to announce mark zuckerberg has joined the board of the foundation alongside stephen hawking. his support was incredibly important. erik: is he contributing some of that $100 million? is any financial contribution he is making over and above the $100 million? >> not at this point. but i think his moral support and endorsement is very important. >> prior to the third quarter of last year, we were seeing strong consumer growth, consumption growth. as we went into the december
meeting where we made a decision to lift off, my forecast was we would continue to see that growth. and more importantly, the consumer activity would be the strongest driver of a forecast for 2016 of somewhere between 2% and 2.5%. i was favoring a number toward the higher end of that range. now, i am concluding that we saw softer consumer growth in the third quarter, fourth quarter, and apparently in the first quarter. at least as the data seemed to indicate, the consumer activity is slowing. what do i make of that?
i am coming to the conclusion we are seeing a reversion to the mean, that we are seeing a return to what was more of a normal consumer growth number prior to the spurt we saw in 2014 and into the middle of 2015. it may be in a way that consumer growth is returning to normal. but having said that, it does to some extent cast some doubt on the forecast i began the year with. >> does that mean not only is it not mandatory, maybe it is prudent not to move at the april meeting? >> i don't know what the committee will decide. i know there will be a range of opinions on making a rate adjustment. based on what i have seen recently, i'm not going to be advocating a move in april. ♪
i am ramy inocencio. the complex relationship between money and politics played out around the world this week before a court ruling cleared cleared the way for argentina to pay off debts and return to credit markets. anticipation of a presidential ouster has brazilian markets soaring. and in south africa, an investment firm linked to the embattled leader has come under heavy pressure. >> the crisis surrounding him has deepened with several financial institutions distancing themselves from his links to the gupta family. the family has withdrawn from the board to insulate it from the scandal. when do you expect your banking relationships to be restored? >> i hope as soon as possible. we have 7500 staff members in the immediate families which i would estimate to be about 60,000 people worried about their futures. i listened to some of the local radio stations over the weekend
imploring the bas to step up to the plate and resume normal relations. i hope i can get some appointments at the bank this morning and convince them to restore relations. >> are you talking to the same institutions that have walked away from you? are you talking to new possible financial institutions that could work with you? give us some names. >> all four major banks have walked away from us. we need at least one to offer services to us. we will be talking to all for banks this week and assuring them about governance in place. >> financial officials and firms have agreed to create a fund to support the country's banks. they hope to tackle the estimated 360 billion euros in bad debt italian banks are carrying. >> it is going to address the two fundamental issues hitting the italian banking system now. the need by some banks to raise capital, and to try and reduce the level, this massive level of nonperforming loans. i think clearly right now, it is a stopgap measure.
italy's biggest bank is acting as a guarantor leading the underwriting. it is a stopgap measure. francine: 5 billion is probably not enough. how big does it have to be to put most of the concerns to one side? >> that is a great question. i think investors would be happier for a bigger number. the fact is, how do you get to 300 billion euros? it is not like you can wipe these nonperforming loans out overnight. >> the vote by brazilian lawmakers has pushed the president one step closer to impeachment. she is denying any wrongdoing and accusing her vice president of a coup attempt. what can a new president do to substantially improve brazil's economy? why is the stock market rallying? why are bonds up 12% this year? >> it is a close call. there will be over shooting either way. if she survives or falls, there will be overshooting the markets because they will see the v.p. that takes over as more positive than he will be. he will not be able to deliver everything he is promising.
if she does survive the impeachment motion, i think markets will respond negatively thinking she will be worse than she will be. whoever is sitting in the presidential palace in the coming months will not save the crisis. a turnover may open up a short window of opportunity that may allow the v.p., the next president, to get some low hanging fruits and approve some
reforms. but it will be very choppy waters to navigate. scarlet: argentina's big win in court today. they can tap the international credit markets for the first time since 2001 and pay back creditors from the default. talk about the importance of the court ruling for investors. is it overall good or bad? >> there are some good aspects and then some negative potential president. the good is it clears the way of a problem that has been holding of 2014 when they defaulted because of the judgment. lifting the injunction allows
them to pay off the noisiest judgments against them. in lifting the injunction, they could tap the markets, pay off the guys, and start integrating with the international capital markets. alix: argentinian bonds are killing it. they rose to a record high of 122 cents on the dollar. how long could the rally go for? >> it never collapsed as much as you would have expected given the news. in a way, they just caught up with the coupon payments that were accruing. the overall situation of argentina looks good relative to some of the other latin american economies. scarlet: the price rally came after he was elected. to what degree does the panama papers with his name mentioned affect his ability to keep economic reforms on track? >> with him elected, there has been a polarization in argentine society. the enthusiasm that has gone into this, on the back of this announcement, there are still complications and ongoing litigation. this lifts one part of the problem but does not solve everything, so there could be room for disappointment. ♪
♪ ramy: this is the first thing you should look at in the morning when you log on to bloomberg to find out what is happening around the world. a nice sliding scale. >> ii gives you net inflows and outflows out of equity bonds and portfolios. >> let's look at the industry groups moving up and down today. i know bloomberg customers have their go-to functions. there are around 30,000. we will keep highlighting our favorites on bloomberg television, and maybe they will become your favorites, too. check it out for fast insight into timely topics. take a look. >> britain and the european union may be in for a messy divorce.
the brexit from one of the world's most powerful trading blocs will happen if brits vote to leave in the national referendum on the 23rd. polls show the brexit vote could go either way. here's how we got in this situation. those who want to leave the e.u. are the eurosceptics. they kept that u.k. from adopting the euro in 1999. they are more worried about the surge of immigration. the u.k. gets about 500 people added to its population every day. since e.u. citizens have the ability to live in any country they choose. leaving is the only sure way to stem the flow of people. arguing to stay in is prime minister david cameron. he negotiated new terms for the u.k.'s e.u. membership including reassurances from the financial industry and the right to restrict welfare payments to migrants. he says the breakup would be an economic disaster.
for nearly half of u.k. exports. he says the brexit would create a decade of financial instability. the debate is whiplashing markets and has sent the pound tumbling. here is the argument. those pushing for a brexit say the e.u. has turned into a superstate eating away at britain's national sovereignty. the vote will likely come down to two issues. the economic risks of an exit versus concern about the flow of immigrants that cannot be stopped. whichever way the vote goes, britain's long love-hate relationship with the e.u. will rumble on. ramy: users can check it out on bloomberg to monitor all the latest brexit news, polls and indicators. you can also find our quick takes and business news from around the world on bloomberg.com.