tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg April 19, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm EDT
alix: u.s. docs closing mixed at this afternoon. the dollar falling to its lowest level since june, sparking a rallying commodity. "oe: "what'd you miss? scarlet: please breakdown the numbers for you in minutes. joe: our guest says commodity prices haven't been more important than they are right now for emerging-market currencies in over a decade. >> and putting an end to the tear any of the noncompete clause. the wide-out strategy has worked out well for silicon valley. we begin with our market minutes. stocks closed mixed. the s&p 500 tried to get to 2100, didn't quite make it. the dow industrial seeing above 18,000.
after netflix result yesterday, tech was a leader on a downside. materials and energy continue to rally. abovell 10 s&p industries their 200 day moving average. even with this day, still seeing some upward momentum. alix: a lot have broken the 200 day but have not been able to hold it. what will be the catalyst to break us out on this range? it was really the commodity names that probably the most. copper and gold up at the most since november, also a transocean.stock in con of a risk on day across the board. and itd at the vicks still cannot seem to gain any traction. the vicks really low. we keep having this rally where we are climbing higher but there doesn't seem to be a lot of concern. joe: and i'm going to sound like
a broken record but guess what, there are new lows in japanese borrowing cost again. there is the japanese 30 year yield on the screen every day, brand-new lows. what else is there to say? thelet: let's talk about dollar continuing to weaken, revisiting six-month lows after disappointing housing report. the bigger story would be in the rally and commodity currencies, whether it is the aussie, loony, gnocchi. you can see the big move in the right now -- real. and theee to search best-performing currency in the world so far this year, up 12%. commodities, anything,
you name it. oil seeing a huge rally again. from nigeria, venezuela, kuwait. bump.opper seeing a nice natural gas was up over 7%. across the board, you had commodities rallying. and some breaking news. intel reporting earnings. first-quarter adjusted earnings of 54 cents a beating the estimate of $.49. revenue of 13.8 billion dollars, in line with what analysts were anticipating. intel is cutting jobs, up to 12,000 positions. reports say they are structuring initiative to accelerate. byse job cuts will come mid-2017 and there is also some more details on its cfo succession plan as well.
the headlines keep rolling. 12,000 jobs is about 11% of employees. alix: we are not seeing any after-hours trade because the stock is halted for more news pending. 11%, a staggering number. we will dig deeper into intel as we get this earnings number out. is joining us as well as stewart walker, an equity strategist. stewart, so far this earnings season, we haven't learned anything we didn't already know. the financials were not a good batch of results. the energy materials company have yet to start reporting. what is the early takeaway? stewart: although expectations for banks were low, the forecast was particularly high so there wasn't a strong consensus even know expectations were for earnings to decline 12%
year-over-year. the real messages we have seen a lot of uncertainty come out of the market. financials have been the best performing sector over the past week. season, a the earning lot of the negative things that have already been priced and marked on the downside are eventually alleviated. i think we could see the market continue to rally. alix: about intel, is this surprising? cory: there was some information coming out that hinted this on friday of last week. it's interesting to see these changes. it is a big cut. interesting to watch intel culture. people go to work there and stay there forever. thatthe kind of place treats their employees in a different way. we will see how surgical these layoffs are. getting newsalso
intel is cutting its full-year revenue forecast as well. not only do you have cutting jobs but cutting full-year revenue forecast. cap xreaffirming its forecast. scarlet: earnings per share of eight cents come in line with what analysts were anticipating but the range was fairly wide. that compares with an earnings share of $.15 last year. when it comes to revenue next, the sales passed on to partner double-digitg at percentage declines from the same time a year ago. looking here at 140 $7 million, higher than what analysts were anticipating. when it comes to yahoo!, these reports are kind of a sideshow.
cory: it has been a circus there lately. questions be a lot of about what will be left of yahoo!. we hear about offers that are three dollars and four dollars a -- inin value full's cap value. what we have seen from this company consistently is sales have declined and declined so things have been getting worse even though they have spent billions of dollars in .cquisitions the factink about facebook about instagram write about the same time yahoo! bought templer and facebook has been the big winner there. business is yahoos still very much focused on what is going on on the desktop and they haven't gained significant ground in the mobile game. getting the gross
margin forecast, the only profitability measure intel provides to investors. is looking for a growth margin of 62%. cap xg back to the forecast and the restructuring, intel is saying in the cap x for the first quarter will be $1.16 billion. that is about half of what analysts were looking for. for $2.4 looking billion. aboutthat might be more rolling out new technologies. they say they will keep the number this year in may will build just as many fads as is a indicated earlier. saying --own now intel now saying it will resume trading following the earnings halt. what is next for intel? : this company is going through an important transition
as people move their computing away from these things to these things. intel just hasn't had success on the mobile side of things that they are looking even further down the line at the internet of things and want to be a significant supplier to chips that gather data on a small basis but also the chips that calculate and understand that data on the back end of the servers. with every passing month, the internet of things becomes a bigger business for them. that's going to be difficult this quarter. alix: yahoo! stock, their earnings are up in post-market trading as we await any merger news. joe: i want to bring you into this discussion. beingr these a job cuts the big story. one of the major sources of and zaidi going into the earnings season was margins and the sustainability of profit margins and when you see this company
that has massive capital expenditures every quarter cutting back so dramatically, what does that tell you about profitability? stewart: i think this is one of the issues of dragging gdp growth. snpave seen cap x and the -- s&p 500 declined. that tells me the companies are focusing on line backstops, conserving cash, not trying to maintain their margins in an environment where cpi growth is only 4.9% every year. i think it's difficult for companies to make money, especially when it affects volatility and foreign markets have been particularly weak. profitableintel, a company but that 62% margin growth is very strong. alix: when you take a look at the overall market, how much can be madetting
for other companies? how much more juice is left in that technique? stewart: i think it's a story we have been asking ourselves and it continues to be a theme of this market. the same is true for buybacks. relative to free cash flow, they have been steadily increasing at this $150 billion per quarter ends. i think it will persist for some time, especially as we expect employment growth to slow at the back of the year and average out the earnings growth with that. we are in an earnings recession with profits falling for a fourth straight quarter when the first quarter numbers are all said and done. recover even if the economy continues to grind along at these levels? dowart: part of that has to with the composition of the s&p
500 versus the economy overall. a lot of that is derived from the waiting material. when you look at the s&p 500 of that is0% composed of energy dividends. that is a much larger section, especially when you look at the workforce of the economy, they -- reallyed better better represented in the s&p 500 with the economy can still chug along at that too percent pace. stacy smithsaying will move to a different job. manufacturing operations. that is a big deal for intel. he has been there for a long time but renée james was the cfo at the company and was promoted to coo. announced a title
change. if he's in charge of sales, that is a huge job at intel. it sounds like a much more involved operational role. sincet: he has been cfo april 2006. he is the only cfo they know. cory: he is very well respected on wall street. i think it is distressing -- it's interesting. is a longtime intel guy and a supersmart guy who knows how that plays works as well as anyone. alix: thank you so much. scarlet: coming up, more on yahoos fresh quarter earnings and more details on intel's a job cuts. 12,000 jobs being cut at intel. ♪
k: e-house panel hearing testimony on encryption. a senior fbi official says she doesn't believe hiring third parties to help the bureau hack into locked iphones should be a solution. what could think we need the cooperation of industry, academia, the private sector in owner to come up with a solution. mark: also testifying on oversight and investigation, apple's general counsel. today's primary day in new york, hillary clinton's campaign manager predicts new york will taking anmrs. clinton important step in the nomination. bernie sanders needs to win 68% of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination.
donald trump capturing more than 50% of the votes statewide would put him in a strong position to win all of the states delegates. a cincinnati man playing with that charge was planning to attack the u.s. capital has been found competent to stand trial. a judge issued the ruling after from a testimony psychologist for the defense. he says christopher cornell is able to participate in his defense. study in colorado finds kids are not smoking more pot since the drug became legal but adults are according to the most comprehensive report yet on the effects of the state's 12 recreational marijuana law. more people in colorado are calling poison control related to marijuana exposure. malaysian airlines says the ceo will leave his job in september. of the far in advance
end of his contract. the airline cited changing personal circumstances. the airline says it started searching for a new ceo. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i'm mark crumpton. scarlet: "what'd you miss?" yahoo! coming up with some new second-quarter forecast where the amountluding passed on to partner sites for the second quarter will come in china what analysts were anticipating so the core business is still faltering. alix: in terms of first quarter the price per click
increased 7%. big fall. is a last year, the number of clicks fell by 10%. cost per click numbers have been getting better for yahoo!. it runs counter to the trend at google. they see their cost per click falling and falling for a couple years as it's gone to mobile. but they have seen so many more that they're willing to embrace it. google introducing another ad type. joe: what do you think the says?ing number of clicks probably negative stuff we say about yahoo!, the one positive argument is it still this gigantic media property. so what is the declining number of clicks? is that an ominous, early bellwether?
it's not a good sign. to see two consecutive quarters isa negative percent, that certainly bad news. there may be some changes. we will be listening for what they say in the conference call but it is it is concerning town. scarlet: intel shares have begun trading once again. theywere halted until reported their results. at intel.ooking it is lower in after-hours trades. the big headline is the cfo will be moving on to another part of the company, leading manufacturing, sales, operations. in thetiming is still up year because they are looking for his successor. y: a much bigger operational
role. really helping the company in the most important aspects of sales and manufacturing. the many factual semiconductors is as complex a thing as there is in the world and intel does very high margins. and these guys do it with such efficacy cometh a real machine down there. yahoo!, it wast up after the earnings release and went negative and now it's relatively flat line. revenue coming in like versus estimates. does this matter? do who results today matter? cory: i think they do. if you're going to buy this business, you want to know how it did in the first quarter. the bidders will look at these numbers.
the key aspects of this yahoo! deal, is it entirely likely that in acquiring yahoo!'s assets, they will put those assets on the market again in a few years. that is what private equity does. we will keep an eye on that. that is why i think this quarter is so important because we really want to understand these businesses as they get broken off into other things. alix: thank you so much. scarlet: coming up, like tourism is a so crucial to japan's economic growth. the chart you can't miss next. ♪
it's something japan needs to allow next growth drivers like foreigners. a strong yen is a deterrent. if you compare the dollar yen chart to tourist arrivals, this really tells the story. can see the number of tourist arrivals have gone up especially during the week yen period. the stronger yen will be a challenge. joe: love that charge because it makes so much tourist arrivals would be sensitive to the weakening of the yen. it's awesome to see how nicely it tracks. it's a crucial look at tourism and transport services. also produced in their note, this is the same as last chart. this chart.
the white line is net tourism and transfer services. you can see how, for a long time, tourism was a net drag on the economy. then it is really sharply theysed starting when dramatically weaken the yen. you can see the current account balance that has had a positive impact. tourism really matters. he actually made tour is in a priority. you want to do the number of foreign tourists by 2020. as you take a look at hotel occupancy rate, there's a higher starting in 2016, especially as -- even is quiteyen -- that interesting. airbnb saying as many as one million visitors to japan.
they mostly want to tokyo and kyoto. they're even worries of shortages in the hotel capacity going into 2020 olympics. definitely a huge boost there for the economy. scarlet: that has repercussions for the company that provides those services. hotels, look at the restaurants, leisure index, you can see the japanese stocks have thany outperformed by more 100 percentage points since 2011. the stronger yen threatens that. and japan planning to raise its consumption tax as well next year. alix: at some point, it will have to break. to or something, we'll have see the boj do something because they need the growth. scarlet: new data out today shows lung growth is hitting a plateau despite unprecedented
mark: let's get to first word news. president obama at arts with senators -at odds with other senators in his party about saudi arabia. it would allow saudi arabia to role innsible for any the september 11 attacks. they say the bill alienates a ally in a key fight against terrorism. president obama spoke with charlie rose. pres. obama: if we open up the possibility that individuals in the united states can routinely start suing other governments,
then we are opening up the united states to be continually sued by individuals in other countries. mark: house speaker paul ryan refuses to endorse the legislation. the president visits saudi arabia tomorrow. you can see more of charlie rose's interview with president obama thrown at beginning at 7:00 p.m. new york time. hillary clinton lost 7 of the last 8 primaries to bernie sanders. now the democratic front-runner is hoping to regain the upper hand. mrs. clinton is favored in today's new york primary. she represented the state in the u.s. senate. meanwhile, donald trump counting on his home state to provide a big boost to the nomination. polls show mr. trump with a double-digit lead over senator ted cruz and ohio governor john kasich. the win would give trump momentum going into 5 key northeast contests next week. michigan governor rick snyder
says he will rake -- will drink flint water at home and in the office for at least a month to show offices-- to show it is safe. he has apologized in his role in the lead water crisis. in china, the government expanding and anticorruption drive. financialricting senior officials in beijing. the panama papers disclosed offshore holdings of relatives of 8 current or retired chinese leaders. day,l news 24 hours a powered by our journalists in more than 150 bureaus around the world. i'm mark crumptom. alix: the s&p 500 closed above 2100 for the first time since december 1. we are looking at a new 2016 high,m a four-month high. the industrial holding over 18,000. a see saw section of commodity
producers, oil prices gained. joe: a lot of folks talking about, if you go inside the bloomberg, the golden cross in the dow jones industrial average. the 50 day moving average is crossing over the 200 moving average, which is at green line. people use these crossovers as momentum signals, buy, sell, things like that. for those that pay attention, this is a key sign of the momentum that the dow industrial has had. some say this is a bullish sign continuing to go forward. alix: that is a pretty favorable rating. in terms of after-hours trading, we are looking at earnings. i'm looking at yahoo!. first quarter revenue tops estimates, but was down by 18%. it topped estimates, earnings were in line. the big headlines was the company reaffirmed its full 4 year forecast. its price per click was up 7%. the number of paid clicks was
down 21%. if you break out of the money that it spends on its partners, at the height end, they estimate a hundred $50 million. --$850 million. yahoo! stocks jumping all around. scarlet: on the other hand, you had intel, which first quarter profit beat analyst estimates. the big headline is that it will cut 12,000 jobs. businesses its forecast. forecast,es its coming in later than anticipated. stock is down to 3%. when it comes to its management, there is a reshuffle. something that investors had anticipated, but stacy smith, a popular cfo, a voice of the company, is going to move on to a more operational sales manufacturing role. they will fill his spot as cfo when they find a successor. no timeline there. ecd: "what'd you miss?" the
is still having trouble getting lending going despite negative rates and buy in corporate bonds. bloomberg intelligence created a composite index from the bank lending survey to get a look at lending standards and demands. long growth, the orange line is plateauing. the index leaves quarterly euro gdp by about one quarter. what more can ecb do, and what does it mean for the euro? joining us is a global head of fx strategy at citigroup global. if the ecd cannot boost lending, what happens to the euro? >> they have a problem that they need to get steadier growth. they have political and long-standing economic issues. the kind of mediocre growth will not be enough.. we expected sometime in q3, they will come up with a further package. how effective the package will packages,e seen many
and they'll have some degree of effectiveness. none of the countries that have gone into negative rates, where we have seen quantitative easing, in no case has there been a killer package that you would say really has succeeded and set the template. we will just do a bit more. joe: what is the prospect for the euro? >> they can't be happy that it's pushing 114. it's not going up really fast. in some ways, the market isn't paying that much attention to it. bigger oney is the so far, the yen story. they feel this drift is hampering them. there is a good correlation between the underperformance of european equities versus u.s. equities, and the way the euro has performed. march,: last time in mario draghi made it clear he would not cut rates even further. did he backed himself into a corner? theythink since then,
don't anticipate cutting rates if everything worked according to plan. scarlet: that is a "if." [laughter] >> yes, having said that, from our earlier discussion, it looks like things aren't going according to plan. i would anticipate that you would hear some kind of more forthcoming comments within the next couple months. indicating, look, if things continue to be disappointing, there is more to come. joe: you mentioned people are not paying a much attention to the euro, it's more about the em, the yen, which is at 109. what's next? do you see further easing by the bank of japan? what level would kick that in to weaken the yen? >> they will ease, not necessarily because of the yen. i think they will ease because all of the air has gone all out of the economics balloon.
the economy is going sideways. the outcomes are disappointing. they need more stimulus. i think they will put forward a package, probably in a2. my guess is they prefer to avoid april if they can. they would feel that they don't have to. scarlet: what does that package look like? >> i think they would follow the ecb templates, try and get equity prices up. the measure of the failure of january's ease was the way bank stocks reacted negatively. whatever they do, including cutting rates further, they need to make sure that banks are taken care of, not because they are fans of the banks, but because they don't want the markets saying it is another failure. scarlet: the most illustrated the example of boj failure, you
keep showing it every single day, joe, the yield continuing to plumb new lows. joe: you have written about it, that the only way perhaps japan or europe could get things to work is some sort of explicit monetary financing of government spending, or helicopter money that involves the central bank just giving people money. there is a lot of theoretical talk about this that economists are into right now. do you see anything actually resembling that in the playbook, in the medium to near future? steven: i think something resembling that. from their perspective, they don't need helicopter money right away. rates are so low, and they are falling, so the question of whether the bank of japan says we will pay you nothing to borrow money, or whether they explicitly say, we will just monetize it -- doesn't really matter. the key point is that they have
to find policies that work more directly on final demands, not just on liquidity, not just on the financial system. alix: part of that you can see in the financial exploitation bojmma, the ecb and the seem to have. no matter what they seem to do, citations just want move. if would you buy stuff inflation's are so low? ecb did withthe its last meeting, buying new bonds, closer to its new model in terms of directly stimulating the economy? steven: i think so. working more directly on equities, getting the benefit of the wealth effect. it's likely that in japan there will be a big fiscal component to it. the government spends some money. ultimately the boj buys it. whether or not they make the explicit helicopter link -- boj
estimates. the results signal process. revenue shared with partner websites fell 18% to about $859 billion. analysts were looking for $847 million. says holmes has a management and scientific skills to lead the blood testing startup, despite civil investigations by u.s. authorities. and that is the bloomberg business flash. alix: the rally in the brazilian real has been treated to the president's pretty spent --president's impeachment proceedings. joe: the real movement along with the commodities index. we like to bring in claudio, who
favors selling the real at this time. thank you very much. as we talk about the impeachment rally, and what will happen to the market if it does or doesn't move forward, it sounds like according to your research, that is a big distraction. it's all about commodities. think global factors play a big role. we can see that the fed and risk aversion in general is not playing a significant role generally. it's most of it --mostly about oil and commodities in general that is driving sentiment. in brazil, on top of it, you have to add the perception from the market's perspective that there will be structural changes when the new president takes office. the combination of both, driven by the recovery in commodities,
if we have oil prices $10 lower, it will be a completely different story. i think it is accommodation of both. -- a combination of both. the domestic development are important. equities,tary policy, and commodities on latin american currencies, and you found that it's commodities that have the outsized influence. we can bring that chart up. is that unusual verses 5-10 years ago? claudio: it used to mostly be about capture by equity markets. intoit turned mostly global monetary policy. i'd say in the last 2-3 quarters it's mostly about, commodity prices. joe: how does a chart like this arrive? walk us through the the process. claudio: these are regressions,
risk using the index of equities to understand the drivers of currencies. we did this exercise for latin currencies and also for india and asia, and the results are pretty similar. but on top of that you have these driving stories. alix: you mentioned oil, and i thought it would have been copper be more of a mover for fx. joe: that is why i find this to be so fascinating, so disentangling the market movement. if you're going to talk about commodities driving this, why have all commodities gone up
since a couple months ago? if we are going to explain the currency moves from commodities, we have to come up with an explanation -- what is it that caused commodities to rebound? someone say that is the bad news, it still comes back to monetary policy driving the shots. alix: exactly. joe: do what do you attribute the massive commodity move? laudio: the massive drop in commodity prices that you have towards the end of the year was mostly driven by fears of what happened in china. it wasn't so much about oil in particular. the recovery you have in oil, it is pre-much the main driver of everything. why, if the price of oil goes down, is this not good for
global growth? you can have everything at a lower margin of cost. and the price of oil is a windfall for consumers. but you have importers and exporters of oil, and for producers of oil that are trade constrained, a drop in the price of oil has an immediate financial impact. i think markets were trading with that force rather than the windfall in conception, that in one point in time, we will see. but the dynamics are a freshly financial channel, secondly a consumption channel. known,e recovery seen they are comment that the market will recover. you have to consider that people are less concerned about china. a conference with
emerging markets this weekend. the tone of the conference, all the investors were very bullish with emerging markets. this is the perception we are seeing now. those forums are like a coordination device. people meet there and they get more bullish than where they began. alix: claudia, thank you very much. scarlet: are noncompete clause hampering innovation and growth? what can cities learned from silicon valley and california law? ♪
hopping may be a secret agreement gradient t -- in an gradient. analyzed noncompete clauses. my love about your column, you start with this example about boston and silicon valley. both were hotspots for innovation in the 1960's and 1970's, but everything changed. what happened? >> silicon valley kept moving, and boston didn't really shrivel up, but there were a couple big companies that sort of state the way they were. whereas in silicon valley, one company would fail, and 5 others would go and start other companies. scarlet: we can contribute this to noncompete clauses? thatere is a great book discusses this. a couple years later, this law professor at stanford looked at it.
he thought maybe it was the noncompete clauses. california, not really intentionally, it's law since the 1980's has made it impossible to enforce these things. opposed to massachusetts, it does to -- it does tend to enforce more. the conventional wisdom is that noncompetes are good for companies, but bad for workers. what does that mean for the economy? >> maybe that is not exactly true. in every one of these states, there have been efforts to get of, but makeet rid them harder to enforce. always lobbies against doing that. the question is whether they are
theing -- are thwarting innovation area. scarlet: that they are getting in their own way. what you have seen recently is low-wage jobs requiring noncompeteigning up clauses as well. >> jimmie johnson apparently give this form to in franchisees that includes a noncompete, that you can't work for a shop that gets more than 10% of its revenue making sandwiches within three miles or 2 miles of any jimmy john's in the country. for a technology company, the defense is, wow, they have technological secrets. i guess there might be trade secrets in how you put together a sandwich, but this seems like i wait to keep workers --seems like a way to keep workers down. scarlet: keep the man down. >> no, but the men in power. scarlet: the big sandwich guy.
scarlet: "what'd you miss?" don't miss this ---japan imports and exports coming up 7:30 p.m. eastern times. post expect to show a decline. joe: i'm looking at mba mortgage applications, tomorrow out at some :00 a.m.. -- at 7:00 a.m. alix: i'm looking at the department of energy oil inventory report. the reason why it is interesting is that there should we a flow disruption from canada to the u.s., which should distort inventories. kind of like a fakeout.