anna: politics across the pond, barack obama urges britain to stay in the eu. wall streets burn, executives may have to wait at least four years to collect bonus pay and could be forced to return money under a proposed dodd-frank rule. defiant mario draghi, the ecb president stands by his monetary policy, despite german criticism. same stimulus is working. germany,burg, volkswagen gets ready for the emissions settlement that will cost billions of dollars.
♪ welcome to countdown everybody. friday morning, i am an and words. 6:00 here in london. let us talk about the global equity markets. yesterday we talked about how global stocks had the highest level since december. things looking more sluggish overnight, a slightly weaker section in the u.s. and a weaker session in asia, despite the fact we saw a pickup in the oil price, often enough to turn the mentality around the stock market. let us look at the rally during the trading day, here on white in a bloomberg with a rally that we have seen in global stocks, dating back to late january. we have also seen upper limit on in gold and silver, of course we talk about that on the program. buying precious metals and buying the yen, despite the buying a stock. as the title of the chart suggests the markets are perhaps
far from convinced about the strength of the moves that we have seen in equity markets with a rally we saw and equity markets the last couple of months or so. let us check out the risk radar, oil bouncing again. we are back over $45 on the nymex $43 77 where the prices trading. both of those stronger by more than 1% compared to the close. a third weekly gain seems to be on the cards for the oil price. opec really keeping the price of freeze on the radar. as the disappointment last sunday in dohar. dollar-yen, slim majority now expect easing next week. but the dollar since the beheading for a weaker increase against the japanese currency. could we see something little bit dovish both the boj and fed next week? you just saw that on the bottom of the screen, the day after we
saw the euro taking on a wild ride by the ecb and mario draghi. let us get to the bloomberg first word news. >> good morning. well, president barack obama urging great britain to reject a brexit from the european union, doesng that this picture contain flash photography. writing in the daily telegraph, he says it would moderate influence, but not magnify it. he goes on to say that while europe faces many of the same challenges, including migration, economics, and terrorism, is the best way to address them. is first prime minister turning behind the state campaign, to the to remain in the you. he said it is a much closer call in england. a european.k. is country, it would be a tremendous backward step the move away from europe.
and the argument which says that there should be a strong vote, and stalin of course, they voted overwhelmingly. the pollsand england, i think are still too close for comfort. willll street executives have to wait at least four years to collect most of their bonus pay and could be forced to return money, if the companies lose big. one of the last major planks of the dodd frank act. on bonus practices that rewarded risk-taking would strike hardest, key employees at companies with more than $250 billion in assets. the cheating scandal at mitsubishi now cost them 40% of market value in three days. it could get worse. investigators are doing searches at the offices, nissan looking at how it could have affected the cars made by mitsubishi.
advisory board meeting later to discuss the financial impact of their emissions cheating scandal, coming a day after the company said to compensate customers and a deal that will cost at least $10 billion. diedr-songwriter prince in minnesota at age 57. there was no reported cause. first broke the news, claiming that he had been treated for a drug overdose days before his death. global news each day and every day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 views bureau, you can find more stories on the bloomberg terminal. go to top go. anna: thank you very much. with a news update their policy what is happening in the life markets in the asian session. yvonne man is standing by with an update. interesting to see come a sluggish picture in asia, despite oil going higher, perhaps oddly that has been
enough to turn markets around in the past. we had a downbeat day. because the overnight session that we saw that fall in crude overnight. that is certainly weighing on a lot of stocks, particular leave the miners and the oil producers and australia. 4/10 of 1%. we have seen sentiment better on the regional benchmark because of japan. a change of fortunes in the last hour of so, up about three quarters of a percent right now. we have news coming out of the boj. of course wehat, have been hearing the critics, talking about the impact negative rates have on financial institutions. now sources telling us the boj maybe throwing a floating device for some of the nations lenders, eyeing possible negative rates on the loan programs. they might adopt negative rates for some of the excess reserves in some of these banks. and financial institutions leaving money idle, that could be interesting to see.
because we are heading into that boj meeting next week. and sources saying that this could happen in conjunction with deeper cuts to the negative rate reserve. deep financials up 2.7% on that news. particularly the banks, up 4.4%. all rising now. and the likes of the big leaders on the board, up 5.6%. we also saw some movement in the of, in response to this news the dollar-yen weakening. weakening 4/10 of 1% in just the last half hour to an hour or so. here,tinues to see sources telling us that officials could be adding this into the arsenal. which is again eyeing that possible negative rate on the loan program. again, we are seeing the debt piling up on more stability measures coming from the boj next week. 23 out of 41 analysts say they could see more stiglitz on april
27 and 28. anna: thank you very much. yvonne man joining us from hong kong. lots of focus in on the boj next week. and of the fed. let us cast our minds back 24 hours, talking about the ecb. mario draghi stood by the central bank stimulus goals, keeping policy unchanged, despite criticism coming from germany. speaking at a news conference in frankfurt, mario draghi also said the governing council stands ready to act if necessary. draghi: based on our analysis, we decided to keep the key ecb interest rates unchanged. we continue to expect them to remain at present or lower levels, for an extended period of time. the risk to the growth outlook still remain, relative to the downside. recent monetary policy decisions
have improved overall financing conditions, which should support the outlook for consumption and investment. the monetary policy measures in place in 2014 have clearly improved borrowing conditions for firms and households, as well as flows across the euro area. persists, and remain in particular to development in the global economy and to geopolitical risks. if there were an unwanted tightening in broad financing conditions, that would alter our medium-term outlook. standserning council ready to act, using all the available instruments within a mandate. anytime the credibility of the central bank is received as being into question, the result
achievement ofhe the objectives. anna: mario draghi there. now we are joined for the next hour or so in the studio by the chief european economist at merrill lynch. he is here in the studio this morning from bank of america. merrill lynch, a great idea to have you here. mario draghi there, a lot of clips of this press conference yesterday. did it change your thinking on what the ecb will do and when? >> nokia not really. no one i think was expecting much from the ecb yesterday. apart from a documents. we do not think the ecb as many before to act further, the summer. we should look at the real economy and the eurozone, it is doing ok. there is no sense of urgency there. my guess though is that when we get through the last month of
the year, the market will start sending questions about the continuation of qe. for the time being, it seems they can take a little bit of a break, a well-deserved break. and nothing he said yesterday would tell us that they are ruling out anything. it is very much a case of which rather not doing anything more? anna: does at the end of those clips of mario draghi, defending policy, people perceiving the central bank losing credibility, it takes longer and more action from that central bank to achieve what he wants to achieve. directing those comments at wolfgang? lles: very clearly. it was a nice performance, very firm on the substance of the ecb independence. but he got really cautious in tone. but on substance, the point was ok, if there is a growing feeling in the market that the nd is being criticized by
germany, what seems to be happening is that we will not be able to act timely enough to deal with the headwinds affecting the eurozone. which means that in the end, we will have to maintain low interest rates for longer. i think it was a very nice way to address criticism from germany. acknowledging that low rates for ever is not necessary something wishful. ecb, the firm on the feeling they are doing everything they can. and doing stuff because they are not doing enough. anna: that point made again coming suggesting as you say to wolfgang and others that that level of criticism can be self-defeating, if they have to add more. and the ecb take credit for recovery we have seen, such as it is in the eurozone -- credit, reduction in the output gap perhaps, reducing unemployment. can the ecb take credit? distinguisheed to the very short dataflow and the
overall recovery. on the short dataflow, the ecb has been very lucky twice. last year when they launched qe, a coincided with a very nice recovery in dataflow. which had been growing anyway. and this time, happening right now, we have the data in the area actually outperforming the u.s. in q1. but i might not be linked to the the effect of currency depreciation. we also have the reaction of consumer spending to the drop in inflation. but where the ecb has been absolutely crucial, two things. making this net fiscal loosening financially doable. if you reduce interest rates, you can create those conditions. and second, it is on the banks. the ecb has come under a lot of criticism for the negative rate. and i agree, but at the same
time, everything they have been both from the14, delivery and policy side, on the messagehort against the of the banking industry prices. anna: gilles stays with is longer on the program. volkswagen supervisory board meets today to talk about the emissions cheating scandal. he comes a day after the company agreed to buy back cars and compensate u.s. customers in a deal that will cost at least $10 billion. ryan chilcote is at volkswagen headquarters in germany. good to see you. to what extent this morning, draw a line under the scandal, perhaps talking about that? well, you know, i guess it draws a little bit of a line. under the financial results, we should get at least some kind of ego as to what the scandal means for volkswagen's financial
results in 2050. remember, a slave not reported those. but remember, it is a framework deal. we just got the beginning, does information.ketchy the judge yesterday, when he announced that volkswagen was set aside at least $10 billion, said that those the details remain confidential until the three sides -- the judge and the two sides, the u.s. getting together on january 21 -- there is the criminal case in the u.s. there are private suits, europe where there was a lot more affected cars. i think it is fair to say and a, this is really just the beginning. but it gives us a little bit of clarity as to, you know, this find performance last year. anna: what is the mood like their then, ryan? this carmaker, i know, dominates this town. so the crisis must have engulfed it to some extent. yeah, you know, it is
interesting. this is a real company town. even a car town you might say. they had the exhibition park right next to me. isre everything that is vw celebrated. really kind of a very green place. i think there is a real sort of paradox, that this company seems to be caught up in the scandal that has everything to do with massive polluting. producinglfsburg, this industrial paradise, it is really very green and pleasant. and yet, something really sinister happened here over a reallyr period, that is going to affect the company for years and years to come. chilcote joining us there from wolfsburg. here in london, let us talk about what is on for the day ahead. in the next half an hour, earnings coming through for two
european manufacturing. u.k. time, mpi date up from the eurozone as a whole. before the u.s. market opens, we get earnings from ge, mcdonald's, and honeywell. and barack obama and david cameron have a joint press conference. we will talk more as barack obama weighs in on the brexit debate. where he lies in to meet with the queen and meet the prime minister. we will have more on his comments and the op-ed in the telegraph. that is up, next. ♪
6:20 in the morning here in london. let us come back to london and talk about what we are hearing this hour from volvo, talking about performance in china and north america and elsewhere. let us do the details then, first-quarter operating income, that was against the estimate of 3.9 billion kroner. that looks to be ahead of estimates, but it does exclude a restructuring charge. talking about the four-year north american truck market at 250,000 units. 260,000,ectation was seems to be coming down a little bit. first quarter european intake rose 23%. they are saying that the north american truck demand is slowing, from high levels. and north american truck order intake in the first quarter fell by 54%. there was already an expectation of north america would be an area of weakness for this
business. the forecast was 3% decline in the q1, because of weaker truck sales in the u.s. they fell by 7% in the first two months of this year. the industry as a whole, volvo concerning north american truck intake falling by 54%. we will watch for any fallout from those numbers. businesst the flash. from hong kong. groupyds banking considering deeper cuts, apparently beyond the target to 11 eight some 9000 jobs by the end of next year. people according to bee familiar with the matter, could removing more jobs, to help lower expenses. declining to comment here. out, profitis margins hit by higher mobile phone use and the use of automated ads and smartphones,
goods and services in front of more people. but the company has to pay more through partners to reach users on the phone. 67% in theped extended session. first quarter profit, the pc market, all weighing on the bottom line. microsoft trying to transition to cloud and some scripture-based, products away from transactional business. and that is your bloomberg business flash. joining us from hong kong. president obama has urged rate britain to reject the brexit from the eu. writing in the daily telegraph, he says the european union does not moderate british influence, it magnifies it. he goes onto to say that while the u.k. faces many of the same challenges as the u.s., including terrorism, the best way to address it is through collective action. talking about the u.k. upcoming vote and the u.k. economy, merrill lynch is still with us
in the studio. it is very hard to look through this. any conversation about the u.k. is very difficult to look through to the 23rd of june. how do you go about it? gilles: basically, what we have done with the scenarios, looking through them, almost everything has been done and said about this now. wet we just do not know, have forecasted a bit down this year in the u.k. on the feeling that in the first probablythe data was attributed to global forces. and the second quarter might be the beginning of uncertainty related, referendum uncertainty. anna: where would that show up, quite volatile and taking a long time to come through? we might not know the full votet of this epic brexit slowdown until long after. gilles: sort of the indicators
of what they know, but stopping indicators, on the housing market, it is hard to compare this because of the shock of the duty tax. there might be something there. there might be something on the investment as well. there is a general sense of wait and see. there is this sort of reference to the u.k. feeling pointing to the certainty. somewhat prudent for the u.k. economy this year. but on the 23rd of june itself, most everything is said and done. anna: the chance of the effects of a possible brexit is exaggerated by both camps in the run-up to this vote. i'm talking about the both the ex governor of the bank of england was here talking to my colleague francine a day ago. we should be careful not to
exaggerate the impact of the decision to stay or leave, it would be critical? gilles: all he can do is try to do your best with the available estimates. it is a one off event. economists usually use precedent. it is very uncertain. the way we address this is with two effects. uncertainty, it is fairly easy to quantify the heightened uncertainty in the growth. second, the long-term effect on trade. difficulty there is that we have no idea what kind of trade relationships exist between the u.k. and the eu, if there is brexit. but there are estimates there, so we take what we have in the literature and try to do our job. anna: there are limits to the parallels between greenland and the u.k. so maybe we'll try to extend that. gilles stays with us. up next, disappointing results
anna: welcome back. this is countdown. 6:30 in london. 7:30 in frankfurt. breaking numbers coming through this morning, expecting to get numbers from daimlerchrysler any moment. this is a business try to offset the pressure on the slowing truck revenue. and also concern about chinese construction equipment and sales there. trying to offset the pressure with action by the ceo. but we have not got any numbers yet. so we put that on hold and go to hong kong with the bloomberg first word news. adopted negative interest rates on some resolvers
to penalize institutions, they may consider helping lending by offering a negative interest rate on some loans. that is according to some people familiar with the talks with the boj. discussion could happen in conjunction with any deeper cut to the negative rate on reserves. britaint obama urging to reject a so-called brexit from the european union. writing in the daily telegraph, he says that the european union does not moderate influence, it magnifies it. he goes onto say that while the u.k. faces many of the same challenges as the u.s., including migration and income inequality and terrorism, is that the best way to address that is through collective action. wait fors will have to years to collect most of the bundesbank, could be forced to return money if the companies lose big. one of the largest clients of act,o dodd-frank
striking hardest at senior executives and key employees of financial companies with more than $250 billion in assets. a scandal at mitsubishi motors has cost the company more than 40% of market value in just three days. the news could get worse. government investigators will continue to search for development offices, and nissan is looking at how the regulation has affected its cars that were made by the beach. supervisory board will meet to discuss the financial impact of the cheating scandal there. it comes a day after the company agreed to buy back cars and compensate customers in a deal that it said would cost at least $10 billion. biggestolving the threat to its business by settling with california drivers suing traditional employees. it is a move that could have broad ranging applications for companies across the sharing economy. the agreement calling for uber to pay $100 billion to drivers,
in the deal keeps them classified as contract workers instead. instead of formal employees. global news 24 hours a day. 2400 journalists in more than around thereaus world. more stories on bloomberg top . anna: thank you very much. they're in hong kong. ignore what i was saying about the truck sector earlier on. that was volvo. now we have numbers from daimler. euros against the estimate of 2.6. ellis to be a touch ahead. they are talking quite positively this morning, saying they see unit sales up significantly. they see 2016 revenue up slightly. and then breaking it down into mercedes car unit and the truck business from all the truck side, q1 from ongoing businesses
was $570 million. mercedes car sales affected by class sales. they are saying there. guy johnson reminding me earlier there was new surrounding dialer from the u.s. department of justice, requesting emissions on that business. the doj asking the company to review certification and emagin's processes . globally under increasing regulatory scrutinny right now. nejra is tracking some of the reaction that we see in the markets since that ecb press conference. i'm starting with europe. europe-dollar pretty much unchanged at the moment. but it did have a little bit of a wild ride during mario draghi's press conference yesterday. not as wild as a march of course. it did rise as much as 9/10 of
1%, to reach a session high during the news conference approaching a six-month high against the dollar. it sooner race to the games though, wiping out the biggest one-day gain in three weeks to .2%.as much as we are unchanged now, every much $1.13. the euro though is up 2.7% since the ecb last decision on march 10. of course, this time we did not get any changes the policy. mario draghi very much emphasizing that you have to be patient, have to wait for stiglitz to take effect. now of course the one thing he did give more details on was the buying of corporate bonds on the asset purchase program. i wanted to show you cds here. the cost of insuring european investment grade corporate bonds against the fault has fallen. and fact if we look at the credit default swaps, they sort of have a decline in more than three weeks. we are looking at the market
gauge here. european stocks fell as well, but i just want to show you asian stocks there. they are retreating from a five-month high. this is a relative strength index with the 14 day. and it shows the msi asia-pacific index approaching 70, signaling that it might be over. finally we have a talk about chinese stocks. because we have seen this upper momentum in asian stocks generally. but chinese stocks poised the biggest weekly decline in almost three months. the shanghai composite has dropped more than 4% this week. it is one of the worst performers globally. it is about growing concern about credit default. latest data showing credit surging, even with growth slowing. and the stabilization in the economy as well, but investors are betting on less stimulus. all of this is leading to the shanghai composite index really underperforming globally. and underperforming commodities as well. anna: nejra on the market there.
pushing commodities to the highest level in two months, that is over concerns of surging credit growth. that is the subject of a chart on the hour. guy johnson joins us on the set. gilles is still with us. guy, concern about credit? guy: what is happening here surrounded the chinese markets, other markets moving upwards of the last few weeks from you see u.s. markets touching near record highs. you see european markets looking like it will breakout of the trading rate for the last month. the chinese story has been very different. if you are looking for a nares mine,ary in a coal you are watching the idea that maybe china is going to be a problem. what is interesting is that you get narratives coming out of the moment. one is that china will be alright. there is no problem here. all going to be fine, and the rally that we have seen to go early in the market has been the pricing out of this chinese risk. the other one is the soros line.
that we will have a problem here. if you look at markets related to china, you actually start to see some of that price standard it is a weird one going on at the moment. people are talking about that people are getting more relaxed about china. but on the other hand, look at what the money is doing. the money is telling you actually there is maybe some concern here. anna: george soros suggesting some like 2008. gilles, the market was a little bit spooked only got his comments from pc of the officials saying that we will the milling the fiscal measures. at the same time, making sure that we are taking action against some of the risks of the building up. did that shift the balance of willingness from the pcob to take action? gilles: we are measured there. our since in china right now, the improvement in the data that we have had since pmi traders of course, this is probably the
reflection that the military stimulus that we have had the last -- finally finding its way through. the economy has something happening. at the same time, we do not think that this could be really sustained in the second half of the year. so dovish on the rebound, and start flicking against the pcob. obviously looking at the risk, the dollar overshooting anything. but we think that the risk that they take back the stimulus that they have given is actually quite punitive. we have this sort of measure view of what is going on. the data flow is nothing stable, at the same time it means the pcob cannot take back what it has given. anna: guy johnson will be back at 7:30 with on the move of course. let us continue that thought around what is happening in china, what is happening in the commodity space at the moment. because we see commodities
bouncing of it. we have seen a little more appetite for commodity related stocks and the like the last couple of months. does it seem to you that we should be worrying about we commodity prices? what are your assumptions about commodities? possibly, yeah. spotng this sort of sweet currency prices are high enough to allow us to avoid some negative experiences 400 and stability. less stress around credit. that would be deposited. not high enough or not increasing fast enough, to delay recovery in consumption as the macroeconomists suggests, people seem to really want an increase in currency price. i understand that from the credit point of view. and that is the improvement that we have seen. we need to strike a balance there. on the whole, for economists in
europe in particular, which does not have a large producing sector, low oil prices have been good. they have been good -- economist keep saying we see stocks and oil moving in the same direction. but your point is very well made. thank you. gilles stays with us. let us talk about french luxury sector, first quarter revenue missing estimates, rounding up a tough reporting season for the industry. it shows suffering from slowing tourism and a strong dollar. aikenre, that is to debra from bloomberg intelligence. good morning to you deborah. tell us what we see in the numbers there. evolving trends coming through here? more the slightly gloomy picture around tourism related sales? but when you actually break it down, it is less than
3% in the luxury sector. and more growth in the last month, if i compare that against the other big companies coming in, you have 3%. i 1% decline at burberry. and a -9% at prada. last year,ut q3 chasing the tourtists. it is about shock waves coming to the system politically, what is happening on the terror side from paris. it is having an impact. and then you really are seeing more weakness in the u.s. because of the dollar. anna: with all of that in mind, can the second half be any better? deborah: we hope so. positive forg more mainland china. hong kong is still very difficult, everyone is saying the same. but mainland china will be better. we are looking at growth coming
out of europe. slower growth in japan because the yen strength little bit. situationflation there. but overall, second half will be better because there will not be any more shocks to the system. thoseise we would expect to be back on track. anna: i cannot let you leave without asking about this chart on the bloomberg. gilles i know you will like this. how many risks do billionaires have anyway? title,atches, in the this goes back to 2011. and it tells a really fascinating story. what is a telling me, apart from watches,of smart things are not gotten better. this recent period, very glimmer for the swiss watchmaker. the worsening situation, how many risks do a
millionaires have? four. anna: really>? ? that is why we bring in deborah giftn, senior luxury analyst for bloomberg intelligence. lynch, thankerrill you for joining us this point. good to have you on the program. we will talk more about brexit, brexit intervention, as obama backs the event. we speak to one campaigner who says the mood is desperation around david camera. ron. cochair,peak to the coming up next. ♪
market today. when we finally get the u.s. start the trading day. 1:47 in the morning in new york. rather than yesterday, let us bring things back to this part of the world. we have the bloomberg business flash. look: yes, let us have a at the banking group, considering deeper cuts for 9000 jobs by the end of next year. that is coming for people familiar with all of this. the biggest mortgage lender 2014 plantsre designed to help lower expenses. the spokesman for lloyds s declined to comment. google says alphabet profit margins could be hit by more smartphones, meaning that they get more goods in front of more people. but they have to pay more to partners to reach users on the phone. shares slumping nearly 6% in extended trading. microsoft shares under pressure
after hours after third-quarter profits came in cheyenne estimates there. the weaker market and higher tax rates on the bottom line, transitioning to cloud and subscription-based project, away from the transactional business they call it. china has shut down some of apple, forcing the company to last week. offline that is all according to the new york times. apple not giving a reason for the shutdown, but saying they hope to make the products available again as soon as possible. it has been several months since they launched in china. and that is your bloomberg business flash. back to you, and a. anna: thank you very much. president obama has arrived in london and taking the opportunity to urge britain to leave -- the european union. his comments come ahead of the prime minister meeting with david cameron later on today. we are joined now by our white house correspondent.
who is traveling with the president, very good to have you here in the studio. give us the benefit of the insight then, on what from a u.s. perspective, he wants to achieve on this? >> the president was to use his relatively high popularity here in the u k to sway a lot of those undecided voters, those of you decided whether or not to stay or to leave the eu. he believes the u.s. has an interest in keeping the u.k. as a part of the united eu. and he is hoping that his relative popularity here in the u k will get some of those undecided voters to get off the fence and vote tuesday. words frome said, the white house, suggesting that he is going to tackle this subject when asked on this trip. and yet, he got ahead of that -ed in theitorial, op telegraph. how strongly is he weighing in on the brexit? debate a strong intervention? >> he is not sort of tipping on
the issue here, he really wants to let his opinion be known. he is in his last year of his presidency, use the have as many risks as someone who have to face reelection. so he is expecting to weigh in even more definitively when he is asked at a press conference about today. he got straight into it, as soon as he was landing air force one. there was this telegraph op-ed in the same time. he deftly wants his opinion to be known and make an impact. anna: is there any downsides of any risks to getting involved? >> most people back in america are focused on the campaign we have going on there with donald trump and hillary clinton. anna: we have noticed. on brexit much focus yeah. people see him as meddling or doing too much in terms of being a foreign leader, sort of interjecting himself into a u.k. campaign. anna: good to hear from you this morning. people in the studio,
who think he is meddling, i should have said that when the studio is gilles, also on the leave camp. good morning to you. is parthink that this of desperation on david cameron to involve voices like obama varied is that desperation or just using the credibility attacked to people who are on your side of the argument? >> there is no question, the polls are very close in the u.k. he is calling it his friends and favors from around the world, whether it is the imf or president obama. the suggestion that congress would welcome a british prime minister to come and tell them how to run their laws, how to control their borders, possibly outsourcing lawmakers to canada, border control to mexico, that is completely ludicrous. it would never happen. it is quite extraordinary that david cameron thinks it is appropriate to them by the
president over. anna: as a friend, to sharing his views. . richard: we are all friends. he is entitled to the view. but the reality is that you do not meddle in the democratic views. and wishes of a completely separate company. that is reality. anna: looking at some of the things he raises the telegraph today, he talks about the second world war quite a lot. the links between our countries, during that period. he is referencing their and ambition behind the eu that is far away from the economic ambition, the political ambition, the ambition to not allow europe to go to war anymore with itself. is that something that you think is going to sway people? richard: let us be honest. it is nato provides our security. and one of his own former employees for the director of the cia michael hayden, said that the reason they have intelligence sharing and the eu
countries, if you want intelligence from belgium, generally the best way to send it by the u.s. we have security relationships with canada, u.s., australia, new zealand. but the best global intelligence and sharing, nothing to do with that. anna: he makes a point about the special relationship between the u.k. in the u.s., suggesting that that exists regardless of the fact that the u.k. is in the eu. is is possible then for the u.k. to be in the eu and have a special relationship with the u.s.? and to sell a lot of china, and does not seem to stop the germans from selling to china. richard: we have always had a special relationship with the u.s. from way before the creation of the european union. and we will continue to do so through the security reasons i just mentioned. for many years after we vote to leave the union. the european union has nothing to do with security. it is about a political union..
and try to convince in paris and brussels have shown that the eu, if anything, it actually hinders our safety and security rather than helping us. there might be self interest here, the u.s. one of the u.k. this to be part of europe. maybe we are on the same page on a number of issues, and the u.s. perspective might get expressed within europe. ,ut doesn't it strike you as making some interesting arguments about why the u.k. should stay in. the voices amplified by being within europe, our position on the global stage is increased by being within europe. richard: not at all. it is the complete opposite. we are a permanent member of the un security council, the fifth largest economy in the world. but sadly, we do not have a seat at the world trade organization. on the united nations units, these are the really important global trading standards.
we do not have a seat. we actually have less influence as a 9% voting subsidiary of the european union that if we left. norway has more global influence on trade centers and we do. it is ludicrous. anna: but the argument is that if we are tied on the same page with european partners and we have a big voice altogether. richard: but our trade is falling. we import less than we did eight years ago, 2006 and 2007. whereas the exports to the rest of the world road by 50%. you can see the direction of the travel, and sadly, countries in the european union and the eurozone, the economies are stagnating. ours is doing well. we need to leave so we can do even better. anna: richard a look at to see you again. group. of the leave eu and how governor kuroda they are eyeing negative rates on loans. the details of that next. 6:56 in london.
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x1 makes it easy to find what you love. call or go online and switch to x1. only with xfinity. anna: politics across the pond. barack obama urges britons to stay in the eu. the yen slides as the boj is set to consider helping banks lend by offering negative rates on some loans. wall street execs may have to wait at least four years to collect their bonus pay and could be forced to return money under a proposed dodd-frank rule. board getswagens ready to discuss the impact of its emissions settlement, said to cost at least $10 billion.
a very warm welcome to "countdown." i'm on edwards. this is "countdown." let's have a look at the futures. littles if we are a undecided on where we will head at the start of trade, perhaps a slight upward bias. ftse, cac, both looking more sluggish than the tax in the imax. treading water i guess you would describe that as. that is the expectation of where we will be on equity markets. the asian session has been sluggish, failing to be spared higher by a moving oil prices. asia-pacific down by 0.3%. let's bring up our risk radar. the oil price bouncing as it seems opec is keeping open the conversation about the possibility of a freeze in
output. we had opec talking about the possibility of that. still on the cards. barrel on43.79 on a the nymex exchange. 1.4% stronger than the previous close. $110.361-yen. we've had some big moves in the yen. more on that in just a moment. 1.1297 is where we are on euro-dollar. a little bit of volatility around the ecb press conference. we will discuss that as we go through the program. for now, let's get the bloomberg first word news. here's reshot. the yen trading down this morning. bank of japan considering whether to offer negative rates on loans to get credit:. happen with could
respect to the current negative -- negative rates. boj adopted negative rates to penalize investors for leaving money idle. barack obama writing in the telegraph, that while the u.k. faces many of the same challenges as the u.s., including migration and terrorism, the best way to address them is through collective action. alex salmond is throwing his weight behind the stay campaign. he thinks voters north of the border will choose to remain in the eu but he told me it will be a much closer call in england. >> the u.k. is a european country. it would be a tremendous backward step to move away from europe. scotland, the vote i think is
going to be overwhelmingly for staying in europe. england, the polls are still too close for comfort. rishaad: wall street executives would have to wait four years to collect bonus pay and could be forced to return money under rules being proposed in the dodd frank act. the ban on bonus practices strikes hardest at senior executives and key employees at financial companies with more than $250 billion in assets. the fuel efficiency cheating scandal at mitsubishi has cost the company more than 40% of its market value. government investigators have continued searches at its research and development offices. nissan is looking at how the manipulation of test data affected its cars made by mitsubishi. volkswagen's supervisory board meeting to discuss the impact of
the emissions cheating scandal. the company agreeing to compensate u.s. customers in a deal that the dissent will cost at least $10 billion. the singer and songwriter prince has died at his home in minnesota. his publicist confirmed his death but did not give a cause. the star had been treated for a drug overdose days before his death. global news 24 hours a day. you can find more of our stories on the bloomberg terminal. anna, have a fabulous weekend. anna: thanks very much. let's talk about japan. the yen sliding this morning as the boj is set to consider a plan to spur lending. let's check on the markets in asia. yvonne man has the details for us. a sizable move in the japanese currency. yvonne: quite a turnaround when it comes to the stocks because
of this report that we saw. 1.2%ikkei ended a on up. may comeaying the boj to the rescue for some of these financial institutions that have been impacted negatively. we are hearing a lot of critics talk about this and now sources say the boj may consider helping these institutions lend by offering negative rates on loans. what does this mean? basically, banks can get money for borrowing from the boj. that is a plus for profitability. we are seeing a pretty sluggish day as we were talking about, but we see it paring some of the losses. the shanghai composite has been down as much as 0.6%. the hang seng also paring losses. the aussie stocks being hit by the energy shares, down 0.7%.
the philippines pretty much flat as well. in terms of negative rates on banks, we do see the financials surging today, up 2.7%. what is leading that are the banks. all of them rising or have risen in tokyo. up 2.4% ons as well, the nikkei. yen,g a look at the 110.33. it has weakened quite significantly. this is when we look ahead to the boj meeting next week. want to end on some movers as well. as we see here in china, a pretty woeful week. the worst performance we've seen in the past three months. group, the third-largest insurer based in asia, we saw
new business value surge 36%. sydney,on rose 9% in the second-biggest event, now above $70 a ton for iron ore. sony off 1.7%. operating profit was 9% lower than the company's forecast. a global stall in smartphone demand putting a dent on the company's profit. anna: thank you. yvonne man in hong kong with the latest on what is coming out of the boj. let's continue that conversation with our next guest. valentin marinov joins us in the studio now. good morning to you. the boj may consider helping financial institutions lend by offering a negative rate on some loans, dis-incentivizing the banks. valentin: in a way, it is an attempt to boost profitability
and encourage them to undertake riskier investments. if anything, that is having an impact on the yen negative. anna: we've got it here on the bloomberg. the big: given that issue is the negative deposit rate, it was eroding banks' stability at a time when nonperforming loans are a sizable portion of their balance sheet. that measure could allow them to rebuild profitability over the longer term and allow the boj to introduce more negative deposit rates. anna: so this could suggest the boj is tempted to go more negative. valentin: that is one interpretation. the other thing has to do with the risk-taking behavior of the banks. the banks are the biggest holders of jgb's. a lot of the biggest concerns for the investors was that the boj is running out of assets.
presumably, the fact that the boj will be willing to lend to the banks if negative rates could free up some of those to the banks are still holding onto. those channels could mean the boj is allowing itself more flexibility to be aggressive, both in terms of further cuts on the deposit rate side, but also further purchases on the asset side. anna: what are you expecting next week? before we got this news of this latest development out of japan, we had done a survey of economists which showed a slim majority expecting the boj to do more easing next week. do you think more people will be persuaded into thinking the boj will act? valentin: i think so. one of the proposed trade ideas to the client, one of the ideals was to sell the yen ahead of the boj meeting.
in our view, the measures will be focusing more on purchases of stocks. given that the concern was that the boj may be running out of liquid assets to buy -- anna: so not just more buying. valentin: the measures just announced, if they are successful in supporting that risk appetite of the banks, investors could go down the same way. presumably direct purchases of stocks will encourage the banks to boost their exposures. -- we do maintain our fairly bearish outlook for the japanese yen. we think that on the back of these measures, we see further outflows of savings out of japan. that could mean that the unhinged outflows, which have a
direct impact, could increase. anna: in dollar-yen, it is another dollar as well. there does seem to be a change in market expectations around the fed next week. i pulled up the work function on the bloomberg. 62.6% chance of a rate hike by the end of this year. valentin: indeed. what will be interesting going to the april meeting, that is the last meeting before the june meeting, where some expect the next rate hike to come. for many investors, the april statement is the one to contain an indication that rate will be going up yet again. encouragingly, most of the speakers we've seen so far have been ignoring the latest disappointing data, telling us it is a temporary development. by themaining coverage
evidence that inflation is moving closer to fed's target. anna: thank you very much, valentin marinov from credit agricole. let's talk about the volkswagen supervisory board, meeting today to discuss the impact of the emissions cheating scandal after the company agreed to buy back cars and compensate u.s. customers in a deal set to cost at least $10 billion. ryan chilcote is at vw headquarters in germany. what can we expect? ryan: let's face it, there are board meetings and there are much longer board meetings. i think this is going to be one of those. how much money should be set aside to cover all the costs from the cheating scandal? what kind of bonuses should they pay the executives at volkswagen? always an interesting conversation, particularly in this context. how much should investors get,
what kind of dividend? and finally, who done it? there's an internal probe, external probe, and we still don't have very many answers. it would appear that is not going quickly. we will have to see if we get anything on that. we should get clarity on volkswagen's financial results from 2015. anna: another carmaker under investigation over emissions, daimler. we had earnings out from them earlier. what was the takeaway? ryan: the earnings were down about 8.5% from the same quarter last year. they were better than expected. we also learned me last night that daimler is also cooperating with the department of justice investigation into the certification process for its emissions.
again, just another carmaker clouded by the scandal. we already know that psa at its offices searched. announced -- renault announced it was under scrutiny, and mitsubishi. the whole industry is overshadowed by all this cheating. anna: ryan, thank you very much. ryan chilcote joining us from germany. up next, the talk turns to attack as alphabet misses estimates. we will take a look at what is putting pressure on their profit margins. ♪
7:18 in london. ftse futures suggesting we will be a little weaker at the start of trade. down 0.3%. let's get the bloomberg business flash. here's the yvonne man. yvonne: thanks, anna. lloyds banking group is considering deeper cuts. eliminate 900to jobs by the end of next year. britain's largest mortgage lender could remove more jobs than outlined in the october 2014 plan to lower expenses. a spokesman declined to comment. google's parent company alphabet says profit margins could be hit by a higher mobile phone use an automated ads. google gets its services in front of more people, but the company has to pay more to partners. shares jumped -- slumped i should say in extended trading.
microsoft shares also fell after hours after its profit came in short of estimates with tax rates weighing on the bottom line. microsoft is trying to transfer away from what it calls its transactional business. starbucks also fell in extended trading after second-quarter sales trailed estimates. growth in the americas slowed to 7%. the company says it is bullish on china and sees second-quarter transactions of there by 5%. valiant pharmaceuticals is finalizing a contract to hire a chief executive officer. ant said in march that ceo mike pearson would leave the company wants a replacement is found. anna: thanks very much. yvonne man joining us from hong kong with the latest business flash. mario draghi stood by the central bank stimulus tools,
keeping policy unchanged despite some criticism coming from germany. in frankfurt, draghi also said the governing council stands to act if necessary. here is what some bloomberg guests had to say. >> i think it will bear some fruit. when you look back at the policy measures the ecb has put in place and where we are in terms of growth and inflation, you would have to be quite confident to suggest the ecb has done enough. i think mr. draghi acknowledged that today. >> i think it is very easy to say if they were hiking rates and not doing qe the economy would be in a worse situation. while we look at the results in the real economy and the inflation rate, he doesn't look like much. but i think without that monetary policy, the situation in the eurozone would be a lot
worse than it is right now. >> important for them to have comfortably low but not too low levels london -- levels of inflation. they are trying to revive bank lending. reforms, structural they are trying to concentrate on getting organic domestic growth going. thoughts there on the ecb and what we heard from mario draghi yesterday. the dutch finance minister is making some comments this morning about monetary policy or trying hard not to talk about monetary policy is more accurate. at draghi has to do his work in independence, in relation to the conversation that have been going on. germans finance minister wolfgang schaeuble critical of mario draghi recently, though he
did say they were friends after that, perhaps what some would call a bit of a fallout. don't expect any deals from greece today is another line from your own dijsselbloem this morning. let's talk to valentin marinov at credit agricole. did the ecb change your thinking at all yesterday? we saw this sort of storm in a teacup or espresso cup perhaps around the euro. it went up, then it came down again. anything, it does highlight the outcome of the meeting that the longer-term risks for euro-dollar may be on the downside, but in terms of outcome of the meeting, when it came to the description of the corporate bonds that the ecb will be playing, the very wide range of asset they will be considering from here, was a
testament to their commitment to continue easing. what is important is that the credit channel was one of the most important channels for recycling of eurozone excess savings. that is different from the japanese investors. the eurozone investors never really left the eurozone to buy assets abroad. rather what we were seeing was forerunners issuing debt, and when the ecb first announced they would be going to the corporate bond markets to buy those asset, it became clear that the corporate funding for foreigners will become even cheaper. yesterday, it became more apparent how much cheaper that will become. i would expect more foreign , american companies, but also other companies, will be coming to the eurozone.
i guess eurozone investors will be willing to buy that debt. when a foreign borrower issues euro debt, he sells euros to repay debt in dollars. anna: we got a lot more detail about court bonds -- corporate bonds. this march announcement where we cut the ecb saying they are buying corporate debt, he had a big impact, but it hasn't started. they are going to be buying quite a wide range. valentin: that is indeed the case. from that point of view, the new feature here from fx point of view is precisely not, that the demand for foreign euro-denominated debt may be stronger, given the measures the ecb has in mind will have a stronger impact on the residential corporate bond market. so long as that is the main channel to recycle excess savings, i think that particular
china will have a stronger impact on the euro. that is one of the reasons we believe that euro-dollar trajectory from here should remain on the downside. anna: he was defending himself against criticisms made by wolfgang schaeuble. people about how if perceive the central bank to not have credibility, it takes them longer to affect changes in mindset. where do you think that conversation was going? valentin: he was just saying that we have options fairly open for now. we can act if needed. the ecb's mandate is to deliver higher inflation. the fact that inflation is well-known to present -- well below 2% puts the problems in their limits. draghi was very clear about that. any meddling by officials need
guy: welcome to "on the move." 7:30 in london, 8:30 in berlin. i'm guy johnson alongside caroline hyde in berlin. telegraphing his views, president obama urges britain to stay in the eu. does his intervention change the terms of the brexit trade? strikes a deal over its emissions cheating in the united states, but is the industry now being caught up in the scandal? watch