Skip to main content

tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  April 22, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT

3:00 pm
carroll: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york city, good afternoon, everybody. i am carol massar. a result we are watching -- fed day fast and approaching. will global headwinds and market volatility upset the rate hike thailand. mcdonald's reported better-than-expected earnings thanks to holiday breakfast, but how long can value meal sustained a comeback? putting a lid on wall street pay it curb measure -- will excessive risk-taking in the financial industry? we are just one hour away from the close of trading. let's head to the market desk where really in a sense he'll has the latest -- randy in a sense he'll has the latest. : we were down for most of the day.
3:01 pm
in the last 45 days, we are back in the green, at least for two, if not three of our major indices. the s&p 500, in the green. we will call that flat. the nasdaq has not been able to get out of the hole it dug itself into. some earnings weighing on some of these indices. , microsoft, cat missing estimates. i want to show you the general health of the s&p's 10 sectors. one of the big reasons for the rise in equities is because of energy. part, hasr the most been up for the entire day -- up 1.2% here -- the biggest leader in the s&p in terms of sectors. financials are up a little bit more than 1%. on the flipside, information technology has been and continues to be the biggest laggards, down 1.8%, in part, of course, because we have been talking about earlier, apple is
3:02 pm
in a bear market. we stay with technology. microsoft down 7%. it did miss estimates coming out after the bell yesterday. gartner, for example, saying there is a contraction in the market. 9.6% in terms of pc sales. alphabet also missing estimates. starbucks trailing estimates, down by little more than 5% there. revenue did rise, by about 9.4%, vacations, which were a lid -- expectations, which were a little bit more than five alien dollars. energy -- $5 billion. nymex crude up. some western energy up -- look at that, nearly 13.5%, beating earnings estimate. range resources and chesapeake sympathetic, and rising on the news. carol: dimension technology, energy -- but big moves in the
3:03 pm
industrial space today. ramy: specifically with transports. i want to talk about american airlines, united, al -- as well as alaska. -- for for -- her available seat -- that is fallen across the board, taking the stock price down for american airlines. now down about 4%. they expect revenue per seat to fall 620% in this quarter -- fall 6.2% in this quarter. a similar story for united. airlines, buckingham downgraded the shop -- the stock. lets the, the transportation sector -- the railroads -- it is the opposite of what is happening with the route -- airlines. norfolk southern is up, with the news that it increased its cost-cutting goal by more than 50% and posted earnings that the estimates.
3:04 pm
union specific -- union pacific up 2.5%. a stephens analyst upgrading the stock. recognizes one of corporate a -- recognized as one of the best corporate citizens. carol: big moves. thank you so much. let's get to first word news. mark crumpton is at the news desk. it ispresident obama says up to british voters to decide if the country remains part of the european union. conference, the president made clear he is more than comfortable entering the debate and advancing the case for britain staying in the eu. president obama: i am not coming here to fix any votes. i am not casting a vote myself. i am offering my opinion. democracies, everybody should want more information, not less.
3:05 pm
mark: the president also discussed syria, saying he has always been skeptical of russia's activities in the country. rinse pre-does is calling on his support close ranks and the eventual nominee. he told party members that he is not giving ground on the possibility of a contested convention -- in contrast to donald trump's claims that he should be the nominee, even if he falls short of the delegates needed. the ohio attorney general's office says the body of an eighth shooting victim has been found at a fourth crime scene. police earlier said seven people were dead, including five adults and two children, in what has been described at -- as execution-style killings at three homes along a rural road. all are believed to be members of the same family. authorities say there is not an
3:06 pm
active shooter the time, and no arrest has been made. s it is located about 80 miles east of cincinnati. 32 united states is buying tons of material used to develop nuclear weapons from huron. -- iran. it will be stored in tennessee and resold on the commercial market for research purposes. the deal is valued at about $8.6 million. the purchase is to help meet terms of the historic nuclear deal with the west. global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world can i am mark crumpton. back to you. carol: well, about 20% of companies in the s&p 500 have reported means, and results are doing little to bolster confidence that growth is showing up on balance sheets. tech has disappointed with google parent alphabet and microsoft dragging down the center. earnings for technology
3:07 pm
companies is projected to be the worst since the start of the equity market. let's bring in chad morganlander from steeple nicholas. what do you make in terms of earnings. it is arnie -- early. morganlandor: global trade is closing down. we know that. that is pushing into earnings. it is not an argument earnings season. out, we are forward not going to see a tremendous amount of revenue growth for the s&p 500, nor will we see a tremendous amount of earnings growth. carol: that tells you the companies have wheezing off equation and maybe they are at a point where i cannot do anymore, and it also speaks to nothing strong demand. mr. morganlander: celebration of demand and profiting margins for the s&p 500.
3:08 pm
are, not as a major headwind for the markets overall and we do not receive a major acceleration global growth. carol: ask looking for global growth for about 2%. the me you, with just let me ask are valuations out of whack with the expectations for both in the economy and expertise for growth and profits? mr. morganlander: meeting expectations are somewhat lofty. that does not mean we wouldn't have equity exposure. we certainly would. our long-term forecast return for the s&p 500 over the next five years on annual basis is about 5.75%. to put that in perspective, we
3:09 pm
know the historic number is way higher than that. i am trying to say you have to be more cautious, and the word scenesmatic about what of opportunity you are looking at. carol: the pockets of opportunity -- there are always select cases. it sounds like overall there is not going to be great pockets of opportunity where all of the market is going to go up. mr. morganlander: well, we think there are opportunities. we like some select consumer staples, some industrials as well, as well as the health care industry, which has really been underperforming. we think the health care industry, as one sector, can perform very well after the election. carol: is that on fundamentals? mr. morganlander: on both. carol: for more on consolidation? mr. morganlander: you get consistent fundamentals because of the rise in the revenue structure, and the actual valuations, we think, are really attractive. then you look at the can can you asian -- then you get the continuation of the consolidation.
3:10 pm
you look at and it labs and amgen as copies were you can get 50% -- companies where you can get 6% overall growth. carol: in the introduction, we were looking at technology and it has been dragged down because of google results overnight and also microsoft, which we got after the closing bell yesterday. it does not look good. that trenday that will continue until we see growth pick up overall? mr. morganlander: i think so. i think the trend will be modeling a rather lackluster for the next 12 to 18 months. you can still pick up good opportunities. in the big picture sense, the technology performance within earnings really goes hand in hand with global growth. it is systematic global growth. it is the celebrating. imf has a 3.4% growth rate. they will have to bring that down drastically because of
3:11 pm
credit demand and credit creation. carol: wednesday you see growth get into a much more, i don't know, aggressive stance, if you will, globally? on a globalnder: basis, we think it is more structural in nature. carol: that could take time to fix. mr. morganlander: we are not looking for a global recession, but the 3% number of growth will look like a 2% number of growth over the next several years until we actually start to see a withinence of growth many of the emerging areas, as well as the developed markets, particularly here in the united states, where they start to hit escape velocity. we're not there yet. carol: we are not there. we're not even close. mr. morganlander: no, not at all. carol: we talk with our stocks team about the correlation between oil and stocks. breaking down a little bit because we are in the earnings cycle? mr. morganlander: here is the reality -- the commodities
3:12 pm
sector became ginned up -- it is a correlated trade. it really is a correlated trade. carol: this is the commodity -- we have the bloomberg, the index up for everybody, taking a look at what we see -- commodity index up for everybody, take a look at what we see globally. the federalnder: reserve goes dovish. the ecb, you know where they are -- they are quite dovish. carol: right. mr. morganlander: then you have the news that china is try to stabilize their currency and have a modest fiscal response. the commodities complex across the board goes higher. equity markets go higher. then, of course, credits has to behave somewhat. ok? we are expecting that the federal reserve will slowly raise rates. we think they are going to signal a rate rise perhaps in june. they will talk about it. after the election, that is when they will raise rates. carol: so, december? mr. morganlander: december. that is when you will start to see an unwinding of the trading. carol: interesting.
3:13 pm
it sounds agree will be talking about the topic for quite some time. mr. morganlander: elliott, a few moments. -- oh, yeah, a few more months. carol: chad morgan tuck, thank you. -- chad morganlander, thank you. coming, mcdonald's gaining momentum after a strong report. where is the fast food chain gaining growth question mark we will look at that. microsoft is down big today. are the tech giants losing their edge? and, willie cap on wall street bonuses make the financial industry less ricky? that is what regulators are -- risky? that is what regulars are banking on. you'll discuss the new pozo and what it means for investing. last to come here on bloomberg markets. ♪
3:14 pm
3:15 pm
3:16 pm
you are watching bloomberg markets on this friday. i am carol massar. let's get a quick check on the markets. we are about 45 minutes away from the closing bell. we are off our highs of the session, our lows of the session. a mixed market. sadly higher on the dow jones industrial average. 17,999. nasdaq dragged down by tagger earnings -- microsoft, most notably. 4903. s&p 500, 2090, down just merely a point. the japanese yen dropping the most against the dollar in 17 months. we see some pressure there in terms of that trait. time for the bloomberg business business flash --bloomberg business flash. ub has hit the brakeser on a threat by settling with california drivers. the new deal calls for bet
3:17 pm
$100 million to drivers in california and massachusetts and allows them to solicit tips from riders. volkswagen has more than doubled the provisions to pay for the worst crisis in modern history. towas set aside $18 billion cover the cost of cheating on the so emission test. to help pay, they are slashing their dividend by 97%. moody's investors service says puerto rico will default in may on some of the foreign and $70 million it owns -- it does. the konopka suspected to fall -- the dishn -- puerto rico is expected to fall short of paying the lenders.
3:18 pm
you can say that all day breakfast is satisfied mcdonald's customers. the company reported a 62.2% same-day sales growth last quarter. it seems the company ceo steve easterbrook is making good on turnaround efforts for the chain. ubs analyst keith cigna, who has a buy rating on the stock, says easterbrook's efforts are bearing fruit. keith: you see a global effort taking hold. 5.4%, it is to put a really strong testament. this is a very large business. franchisees -- operators -- and corporate are all behind it. it is product. it is marketing. it is messaging. it is better quality ingredients, and all day breakfast and value. the combination of all of this is having this flywheel event --
3:19 pm
affect. scarlett: if you look at steam store sales forming -- stained : if you look at saints for sales, all day -- if sales,k at same-store all day breakfast -- is this one and done? keith: i think there's a lot to go from here. i do not think all day breakfast is go. platform -- it can expand to have breakfast items. you might see that as you get closer to the summer. there are new products. brunch burger -- there is a lot they can do, and that does not get into the product upgrades and enhancements that could keep this momentum going. tracy: there was some noise
3:20 pm
about all you can eat french fries. i gather that is completely off the table now? that, but can see that is more for press and fun. i think these little things -- they keep you in the media, keep the attention high for positive reasons. i think they are good to do. whether you plan on launching it or not. it is fun. the brands should have fun. : you also cover starbucks. what can mcdonald's learn from starbucks? keith: the key from starbucks is institutionalized innovation, take risks, be relevant, and reference to some extent, do not the stodgy and stuck in an inertia. what you see from the leadership team as all of this combined -- a willingness to take more chances and to have fun with the brand again. that is the lesson you learned. institutionalized innovation, or you get left behind. : -- scarlet: and
3:21 pm
building on loyalty -- do they need to build on the loyalty program question mark -- program? keith: absolute and they need we had mark andres at our conference and they said they will have one to rival anything in the marketplace by the end of this year or early next year. it is coming. tracy: give us some color on mcdonald's china sales and whether they say anything about the wider chinese consumer. keith: the message for china was -- the a very public chicken supply incident of last year -- trust had to be restored. the trust seems to be coming back. we have results from other players recently that seems to be getting better. if they stick to the game plan, use value, product news -- the digital presence in, so you can engage in the way people want to engage today, it will be great as this. comps.
3:22 pm
they are looking for an opportunity. carol: that was ubs keith siegner earlier today on bloomberg market. more on bloomberg markets next. ♪
3:23 pm
3:24 pm
ramy: time for options inside. mark sebastian jointly from the cboe in chicago. happy friday. i guess it depends on which sector you are in, or which index you are in. the dow and the s&p are on track for minor gains. the nasdaq down for the week. would you looking for for guidance? sebastian: if you start with the fed, one of the things i really like as they are no longer the main topic of conversation. i think that is bullish the
3:25 pm
market. they may come out with guidance, but i think two rate hikes is aspirational for them. they are out of the picture right now. --nings -- most of the come companies did a good job of lowering expectations. despite high fires, caching names like google -- they are not really being punished for missing, and they are being rewarded for winning. the news on google, facebook, a little soft today. i like markets moving forward for a bit of a time correction. we sit here while the moving average and technical indicators mentally catches up to the s&p level of 2100. ramy: let's talk about visa. they lowered their revenue problem -- forecast. they were expecting higher single digits, or even lower double digits. what was your first reaction to that? mr. sebastian: i was surprised, and i'm not sure i completely
3:26 pm
buy it. i think it is the sand-bagging effect. they have this deal with cosco in june. i think that will be a massive spillover effect. i use an american express card, mostly because i shop at costco all the time and get gas there. i will get a visa card. my parents did the same thing. it is partially priced in. there's a lot more coming. ramy: what is your traded -- 10 seconds left. mr. sebastian: i like buying the june 80 calls for one dollar $.50. ramy: mark sebastian. thank you. have a wonderful weekend. more bloomberg markets coming up next. ♪
3:27 pm
3:28 pm
great time for a shiny floor wax, no? not if you just put the finishing touches on your latest masterpiece. timing's important. comcast business knows that. that's why you can schedule an installation at a time that works for you. even late at night, or on the weekend, if that's what you need. because you have enough to worry about.
3:29 pm
i did not see that coming. don't deal with disruptions. get better internet installed on your schedule. comcast business. built for business. thank you. ordering chinese food is a very predictable experience. i order b14. i get b14. no surprises. buying business internet, on the other hand, can be a roller coaster white knuckle thrill ride. you're promised one speed. but do you consistently get it? you do with comcast business. it's reliable. just like kung pao fish. thank you, ping. reliably fast internet starts at $59.95 a month. comcast business. built for business. carol: from bloomberg world headquarters in midtown manhattan, you are watching bloomberg markets. i am carol massar. thus check the headlines. mark crumpton has more from the
3:30 pm
news desk. mark: president obama says british voters will have the final say on whether the country remains in the european union. at a joint news conference in london, the president said the results of the june referendum will be felt across the atlantic. outcome ofbama: the the decision is a matter of deep united statese because it affects our prospects as well. the president also discussed syria, saying more progress is needed toward a lasting cease-fire. acting secretary ernest moni says other options have to remain viable possibilities, even with oil so affordable. z: the president and i both agree we need to keep nuclear on the table as an option. the challenge for the nuclear
3:31 pm
power -- a major challenge -- with today's reactors, certainly, there is a very large, upfront capital cost, although a comparatively low operating costs. carol: second -- mark: secretary moniz says the option must stay on the table despite very high upfront cost. authorities have completed the e, but resultsnc were not immediately released. the medical examiner says relevant information about prince's medical and family history is being collected. the agency says it will not release its findings until all of the information is in, including the results of toxicology tests, which could take weeks. body will be released to his family later today. day, i ams 24 hours a
3:32 pm
mark crumpton. back to you. carol: we have news crossing the bloomberg terminal. cftc.s coming from the hedge funds are bearish on the u.s. dollar for the first time since july, 2014. basically, they are net short versus major peers. it is giving you an idea on what they are feeling in terms of the u.s. currency. let's get back to the overall market trade. abigail doolittle is live at the news -- nasdaq. if i check out the numbers, it is set to close down on the week for a two-week losing streak. what is behind the weakness in terms of the overall trade? abigail: it has been a rough week for the nasdaq. behind the weakness -- dragon the most, microsoft. shares are down more than 6%. a miss earnings and sales estimates and offered a week fourth quarter view. even so, brad reback at steeple
3:33 pm
says the guidance is near-term noise and the long-term opportunity remains in tact. the gaps are dropping down. it appears microsoft might have to find the support of the 200-day moving average to not move lower yet. arend this week's weakness both share classes of alphabet, down more than 5% after the company missed fiscal first-quarter saline earnings estimates, driven largely by rising traffic acquisition costs. it is a trend that could continue. the street is bullish, but investors seem to be spooked. we see the near term uptrend out of the february rally has been snapped, suggesting the stock could trade lower still. carol: so apple and microsoft, the big drags. do you have a winner?
3:34 pm
--gail: our bright spot is international, up after deutsche bank's greg gilbert says the shares appear undervalued. a $56 price target implies 70% upside for the stock. it appears long-term buyers are o from continuing the downtrend. maybe they will continue to climb higher after this week's big move up. carol: good to see that chart. abigail doolittle, over at the nasdaq. proposingators are new rules that would force some wall street executives to italy's four years to collect their bonuses. mark mail weighed on that topic. mark: you're not have been
3:35 pm
another bank-led financial crisis. banks are safe. this is a lot of micromanagement that misses the picture. i think a better way to improve bank accountability, which this is getting too, is to hold the board of directors more accountable. you have seen many management teams come and go over the past couple of decades. i have been doing this 25 years. if at some point the manager of a baseball team is not getting it done and you have a new manager year after year, some point you want to ask questions of the general manager, and that is the equivalent of what we are doing. you're going to annual meetings, saint to boards of directors what are you doing to hold them more accountable. this capitation, that misses the point. if you really want to have incentives aligned with behavior, let's hold the boards of directors more accountable in holding the bank management teams more accountable.
3:36 pm
jon at this point is it: the shareholders preventing them? this is the fourth year i am going to annual meetings, and i'm extremely frustrated at the unwillingness of the bank management, the ceos that are also the chairman in most cases, except for citigroup, to allow shareholders enough questions, give substantive answers. see backoint i want to to the future shareholder meetings. this is the once a year chance to asked questions of the board of directors. that includes compensation. this is the process that has been in place. it has not been executed. and we are saying get it in place and start up with new rules. it is like throwing spaghetti against the wall. we have boards of directors that
3:37 pm
are accountable. let's hold them accountable. carol: for more on the story, in elizabeth dexheimer from bloomberg news in our washington bureau. this story has gone a lot of people's attention, and it has been among the most read on the bloomberg today. walk usus about it -- through who specifically will be impacted by this. elizabeth: sure. just to back up, it was the first of six regulators that unveiled rules that have been six years in the making. the rules will force banks and other financial institutions to withhold more pay from some employees for longer. it is also going to make it easier for those firms to take back pay if they find that some employees are engaging in an appropriate risk. this is mostly going to affect, or will probably be the harshest
3:38 pm
for the biggest banks in particular. it will affect top executives, and then one layer below that, employees that meet certain criteria that regulators have determined could be risky. carol: you did a great story on the bloomberg and you broke it down to who could be impacted. there are a couple of layers you can go through. even when all is said and done, everybody will be looked at in terms of wall street if there is some kind of wrongdoing, correct? and that: sure, certainly is what this is designed to do. there are a lot of questions on who is a significant risk taker. that is a term regulars have determined for this new group of employees that will be subject to some of these new rules. with that said, it should also be noted that for some of the biggest u.s. banks in particular, these concepts are not new. pay isks and delayed something that a lot of the biggest banks have been
3:39 pm
practicing for the last few years. it is really just a tougher version of that -- delaying pay for longer, and clawing it back for even longer, and even more of it. carol: can you give us a sense of timing, and when this might kick in? elizabeth: as i mentioned, it is already been six years in the making, and it is not over yet. five other regulars have to lay in on what was outlined yesterday. after they agree on that, it is be at least a year before it would be implemented. we still have time. they're also a number of things that could change. carol: what is the thinking about what this will do for retention and recruitment on wall street -- will this make smaller firms more attractive for individuals -- who knows? i guess time will tell, but what is the thinking going into this? elizabeth: sure, it raises concerns on retention, and we have seen the concern that talent and employees are leading -- leaving for private equity, hedge funds, or silicon valley.
3:40 pm
anything that makes your paycheck more complicated at a bank certainly raises the risk of continuing that pattern. carol: interesting. elizabeth, thank you so much. elizabeth dexheimer covers financial regulation for us here at bloomberg news. we do have some breaking news onfiat chrysler. the automaker -- on fiat chrysler. they are recalling vehicles do to an issue with the gear shift, which may confuse drivers and allow them to exit vehicles without placing it in park. it includes 800,000 vehicles in the united states, and 317,000 vehicles in other countries. you are listening to and watching bloomberg markets. the market close is just 20 minutes away. ♪
3:41 pm
3:42 pm
3:43 pm
carol: you are watching bloomberg markets. i am carol massar. it is time for the bloomberg business flash -- a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news. we began with schlumberger, trimming its workforce by at least 2000 and worst quarter. reductions -- in the first quarter. as sales fell. slumber j had 126,000 employees 2014 when oil prices started to drop. goldman sachs settling claims that cost software investors $100,000. according to a court filing, shareholders have reached a deal
3:44 pm
to resolve lawsuits accusing goldman officials of botching the share count. terms of the deal were not disclosed. a u.s. judge in new york has dropped orders blocking argentina from operating normally and financial markets. the move comes after the republic paid much of what it old foreign creditors. standoff between argentina and mostly foreign investors, including u.s. hedge funds, occurred after argentina defaulted on $100 billion worth of debt with bondholders. and that is your business flash update. talks, the bailout for greece might be inside. joe weisenthal joins us. greece is the story that keeps on giving. joe: it really is a story that feels the exact same every summer, year after year. sayingeurogroup came out
3:45 pm
they are getting closer on a deal. they feel confident they will reach 17. -- reachnot there yet one soon. they are not there yet. there is a lot of hard stuff -- stuff on privatization, labor market reforms -- a lot of the stuff at the core of the issue. they are not there yet. they hope to have one soon. curious what kind of stipulations might be built into an agreement? it is one of these things -- remember, last summer we had this. carol: i remember. joe: there were labor market reforms, brought a collection of taxes, a broad framework -- but then they have to implement it and do these things. that is why they came up. greece still wants there to be a debt reduction. they have wants her to be a debt
3:46 pm
reduction. the european partners don't want to do that -- they do not want to talk about that until there is more progress on the axle performance. haircutnteresting -- a -- is that on the table? only in theory, but they want to do that after everything is done. it seems a good could be something where you do not have a nominal haircut -- maybe the debt stays the same, but you report file it or extended, and that becomes a de facto cut. until they see further progress, it is not on the table. carol: what is a likelihood -- this is what it is about -- that history is riddled with problems in terms of their financial situation. i am curious with the likelihood that they get it right is this time. is, sure,eal question they could get it right, do the privatization, but can they thrive in the eurozone.
3:47 pm
does the eurozone ultimately make sense? i feel like this question has not been answered adequately. thriveountry like greece on the same monetary policy, finland, as germany, italy -- i do think the question has been answered. this week we saw borrowing costs pick up in portugal once again -- not genetically, but they have a left-wing government. there is anxiety. there is a core question that has not been answered. ,arol: what a great day to ask because i was thinking about the press conference with president obama and david cameron, and obviously both not wanted to see the u.k. move out of the european union, but president saying how the european and the region has benefited by everyone being together, but you're not seen that in a
3:48 pm
country like greece. carol: with european countries that all have the same central bank -- none of them have fiscal autonomy -- they cannot go into deficits -- they have rules, and they cannot print their own money. it is not clear yet that it is working that well. carol: and when you have a country like greece and germany -- they are very different. they are very different -- and maybe down the road they will have fiscal transfers. there are so many steps that would have to take -- happen before the. unemployment is sky high. all of these things that he wrote trust in -- he wrote trust in institutions -- they work against europe getting to the place they want to get to. carol: thank you. joe weisenthal will cover more of that come up shortly. coming up on bloomberg markets, the close of trading is about 12 minutes away. look at your major averages. little change on this friday despite all the earnings news. the dow slightly higher. the nasdaq and s&p just a little
3:49 pm
lower. the yen drop the most in 17 months. more pressure on that japanese currency. bloomberg markets. ♪
3:50 pm
3:51 pm
you are watching bloomberg markets. i am carol massar. let's wrap up the week in the markets. riccadonnaand carl are both here. y -- our fastfl commentary section. i will start with you. big next week. mike: a big surprise. when i was watching google's earnings come out -- i mean, they dropped straight down. microsoft, starbucks -- on the good side, you had suntrust with good earnings, but if you were to tell me google was going to be down 5%, microsoft would be
3:52 pm
down 7% or 8%, i think i would have called in sick today. carol: look at this. this is the week look. mike: the trend that has been prevalences the market bottomed in february held true today again. banks, financial, energy shares all up. $44 amaining in that $43, barrel range. a lot of confidence that oil and apparentre, confidence in what market prices are showing. financials -- the yield curve rising -- the 10-year yield rising every day this week. interesting. i want to talk about what is to come in terms of earnings next week, but carl, in terms of the economic backdrop, we did have some data points. did it give us more clarity? carl: it was a little bit light. permit figures were on the soft side. mike and i were discussing this.
3:53 pm
while it looks like, you know, kind of a lousy start for construction, it may be the result of the absence of a springthaw -- spring thaw. usually, it slows down and comes back whenever the weather breaks. the weather did not need to break this year. it was 70 degrees on sundays in december. there was not that shut down. so there is not the rebound. intothrows a monkey wrench the seasonal adjustment of the data. what we have in terms of earnings -- i know you get microsoft and some other having names. mike: people are bracing for the worst earnings season since the recession, looking at estimates of around 9.5%, 10% down. they are beating estimates at an elevated rate. i have heard other people refer to it as the best earnings season in some years. carol: because the expectation
3:54 pm
was so low. mike: right. for the time being, earnings are obviously important. the momentum in the market is a big story right now. the valuations are getting -- from the index level, the s&p is about 19 times trailing earnings, close to 18 times forward earnings. so, really, near the highs of the bull market cycle so far in earnings. on fund flowsguru was on tv earlier saying keep an eye on 2100. that is where the s&p goes from being negative with 12 months to go to positive heard a lot of your, sort of, systematic trading shortages, start piling in when the momentum is solid. so, earnings -- while they are obviously important, it is not uncommon for people to look past and veterans season and pile in missed on the momentum of the -- earnings season and pile in based on the momentum ofhe market. carol: the market will be shaped
3:55 pm
by our needs, we also have a fed meeting. fomc yes, we have an policy meeting, and tries to mike, policymakers try to keep it as a live meeting, which is not the case. anythingbody expecting -- let me take you inside the bloomberg terminal. we have the work function, which give you an idea of what fed funds futures are showing. here it is, 0% for april. carl: from virtually nil to absolutely no. carol: [laughter] it ain't going to happen. interesting, it has been creeping up. at the start of the week, the hike chance in december was just barely above 50%. now we can see it is in the 60% territory. it sounds like maybe people are listening from that message from boston fed president rosengren when he said the markets are going to be surprised. where going to move more than
3:56 pm
they are currently anticipating. carol: i have two words for you -- data dependent. carl: data dependent, and enforcing, next week's data, the q1 gdp and itl be does not like a good report. carol: quick -- one are answer for your watch? mike: when the energy companies,. mike: a better feel on the energy sector. mike regan, carl riccadonna, thank you. that will do it for bloomberg markets." "would you miss" and the market close coming your way. ♪
3:57 pm
3:58 pm
3:59 pm
>> we are moments away from the closing bell. i am scarlet fu. i am joe weisenthal. "what'd you miss?" alix steel is off today. ♪
4:00 pm
u.s. stocks closing mixed, little change in the s&p 500. the nasdaq falling. joe: the question is "what'd you miss?" scarlet: bullish signals from , 35charts, a golden cross companies in the s&p form the same pattern. joe: american consumer confidence weekend. where it goes next may determine who wins the white house. scarlet: you might have missed the monster rally in bitcoin, doubling in value over the past year. we begin with our market minutes. economic data to move the markets today, and as a result a flat close. the s&p 500


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on