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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  April 26, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT

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from bloomberg boxes world headquarters in new york, good afternoon. here is what we're watching. apple reporting earnings after the bell. we tell you the numbers to watch for the world passes most valuable company posting his results. plus come starting his two-day meeting to discuss its interest rate policy. committee passes economic outlook, has it changed? build a laureate speaks about the rest of the world. we are one hour from the close of trading. julie hyman has the latest. julie: going into the close, a tight range for the major averages. weighing all of the earnings news out, waiting for the news yet to come. happened all it
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session long, is the worst performer of three major averages. let's talk about the earnings highlights and low lights of the day. after the network equipment maker came out with earnings that missed estimates, the hotel then likewise, particularly sales for both of these companies coming in below what aalysts had been anticipating shale oil and gas producer coming out and raising its production forecast for the full year and a truck company also coming out with earnings that beat estimates. that is what we heard from today and some of the big movers, but some of the action is yet to come, including apple, which we have talked a lot about today. shares of ebay and twitter are actually on the rise going after their numbers. we will see how it all shakes out when the numbers actually come out. toand then the focus shifts the fed meeting.
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the movement has been interesting to me in particular. a seven day selloff in the 10 year that has taken the yields up to 1.93%. beenthat time, it has not a huge movement in the yields. it is just that it has been consistent. we have seen inflation expectations ratchet up in the meeting. comes inup in yield the face of durable goods data as well as consumer confidence. that is not the movement you would expect on the day that you are getting worse than estimated economic data. watching the dollar today, that is perhaps what you might expect. the dollar index is down. as on futures, it then extrapolates the future meetings. the commentary that will be important here. we get 50% now by september.
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seen more and more commentary saying it is now possible we could see an interest rate increase over the summer or going into the fall. september is when it hits. >> let's get a check of the headlines with bloomberg news. mark crumpton has more with the news desk. primaries in the northeast may decide the future of presidential candidate bernie sanders. if hillary clinton paul's off the win, it will be little doubt she will be the party's nominee. indiana primary may determine donald trump's aspects of winning the republican nomination. mr. trump has called on rivals ted cruz and john kasich to quit. bernie sanders says it would be a great idea to have a woman vice president and says many women would be qualified and whom he would consider as a
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running mate should he win the democratic nomination. sanders called elizabeth warren a real champion. country's foreign ministry, iran, wants to discuss a u.s. supreme court decision. justices ruled the families of victims of the 1983 bombing in lebanon and other bombing attacks linked to iran can collect nearly $2 billion of frozen iranian funds. the u.s. and iran have not had relations, -- to federal reserve is likely keep options open this week for an interest rate increase in june. policymakers began a two-day meeting today. will keepve the fed the federal funds rate unchanged for a third straight meeting. the fed raised rates in december for the first time since 2008. join us tomorrow from 1:00 p.m.
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until 3:00 p.m. new york time for our special coverage, the fed decides. global news 24 hours a day powered by our.400 journalist in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. back to you. david: markets are fluctuating as investors weigh for the fed tomorrow. conditions improved since march and left rates unchanged. from the lastick meeting. markets are a 0%. investors are looking for the outlook in june. let's take a look at the buffet of economic conditions on offer in the conference room, starting with inflation. clearly, it is something the committee will be with. >> i think i would like to see them move up further. the thing we have not seen is
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inflation expectations move up. those are at or near all-time lows. it will be on the committee mind. to gettingig hurdle the rate hike. we need to see not only inflation but inflation expectation. we do expect to see that happen. we expect some pickup and inflation numbers. that i think is the big hurdle. growth is not looking too great right now either. we will probably see a weak gdp number and the durable goods number in conjunction with recent retail sales numbers suggest q1 and it kind of flat-footed. we do not feel we have a lot of bounce into q2. data toen is on the pick up in the next few weeks to make june or july seem
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realistic. given all of this, we get a statement tomorrow. what measurement do we get, some more vividness? a relative term but what are you going to be looking for? >> the biggest thing is how they assess the balance of risk. they said risks are balanced. in january and march, they said global economic risks, we're making them a little more cautious. they do not gauntlet back but they're getting a little more comfortable with what is going on. globally and in the financial markets. that is in the second paragraph of the statement. that is where attention will be focused. >> you're looking at adjectives, somewhat or nearly. of most of course last year, they talked about nearly balanced risks. words like that suggest the next
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a live option but not necessarily a done deal. you can say, now we have got to watch data and maybe june is in , but it does not guarantee june or july or september for that matter. they want to balance risks, that would be a very hawkish thing. we are not expecting that in part because the rhetoric coming out of the chair has not sounded that hawkish. balanced,like nearly which we saw for most of last year, would suggest, they can go whenever things start to improve. how large does it blue for the fed? -- had jim down plating that downplaying that are we know this will happen 10 days after the next meeting before the outcome? >> that is one of the reasons
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we're in july instead of june. it depends on how financial markets are feeling ahead of the june meeting. there is a chance they could be on edge or maybe it is a non-issue. late april, it is hard to say but it seems like a reasonable possibility that financial markets could -- the fed would not want to add to that. fed you think a is satisfied with how they think the rate is, -- >> with the labor market, for sure. some have been skeptical about things like the petition patient rate, coming out and saying, what we seeing is looking pretty good. i think hawks and doves are all pretty unified in thinking the labor market is good. i think the issues now our gdp. we can say, q1 gdp, but you do want to feel like you're seeing
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a balance. the more important thing is the inflation story. we do not want to get into a japan scenario inflation expectations keep grinding. they need a little more confidence we are seeing an numbers. right now, i think that is the challenge for rate hikes, certainly the rate market at this point. david: howdy think the committee's regarding, speaking of japan, that meeting. >> i think the lesson from japan and actually other central banks who are kind of struggling, i think it is reinforcing the idea that before we hiked further, we want to make sure we get some momentum here in both the economy and inflation because being zero bound is not easy. they say, yes, we have cut the balance sheet and for guidance, but realistic, it is not a
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scenario most central banks want to find themselv in, or back in. the example of what you are seeing over there is probably contributing to the cost. you saw it in the fed in march and will probably see it tomorrow. david: thank you, michael. join bloomberg television tomorrow for special coverage of the announcement. guests include allen of morgan stanley and the former minneapolis fed president. coming up in the next 20 minutes, joseph of columbia university outlines the economic consequences of grexit and the future of the eurozone. revenue for each seat phone per mile -- we examine the company's earnings. is apple still a buy? we discussed the earnings which come out after the bell today. more coming up after the break. ♪
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david: let's get a quick check of the markets. the s&p 500 is unchanged at 2087 and the dow is down .1%. at the dollar weakening toward a 10 month low, down about one third of 1%. time for a look at some of the biggest new stories now. toll onolatility took a assets under management. income fell nearly $34 million from $43 million one year ago. it was other fun come these posting to be profits after
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stocking markets lost in january and february. american sale of south african coal mines are likely to run next year according to two people -- according to people with knowledge of the matter. holding to transform his relation with coal suppliers. another sticking point that could draw out the sales process. air berlin is canceling more than 905 this week because of a strike. outice workers are walking and it could hurt operations, gutting 60% of scheduled flights affecting as many as 87 house and passengers. and that is your business flash update. columbia university economics aster is calling the eurozone dismal failure as the u.k. prepares to vote on leaving the eu and he explains his stance on bloomberg surveillance.
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>> once britain leaves, a train of the whole set of plant takequences, many people scotland, a close vote, leaving the u.k., we will revisit the question. lastsk you -- after the election, the scottish national party that all the one in scotland. they are strong about being part of europe and they will be very unhappy. the effect on italy, spain, very significant. -- the eurozone has been a dismal failure. it promised they would redo economic prosperity. the problem is we are bringing a kind of political cohesion.
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it has failed dismally on both courts. our economies are doing terribly. think of what we heard from your president barack obama yesterday saying the european union as a whole has not been that much because at least we have not started they were amongst each other. let's go back to the grexit. be au believe this would big risk in terms of a shock? would it be a shock that would, for example, freeze the financial markets if grexit were to happen? >> financial markets are always volatile and working just looking for a reason. it would be a big event in that term. is the the big event train of events that will likely lead on. the failure of the eurozone has led to large constituencies in
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each of these countries wanting to get out. they have a stronger argument for getting out of the euro than britain has for getting out of the eu. if you look at the economics and are a countryu where the unemployment rate is 50%,youth unemployment at germany dominating totally economic discussions any lost economic sovereignty, it is a ,ery compelling case particularly to young people losing their jobs, it is an economic case there that is much stronger. >> they are not losing their lives. the idea of binding together the countries of europe economically, so they do not start killing each other as they did so many times for so many centuries, lies that nonsense? >> many of the forces have
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changed the world. the u.n. in the united nations, attitudes toward war have changed dramatically. the distrust the capacity of war has changed dramatically. think everynk, i bit of integration helps, so i do not want to say it did not have any effect, but if i do a thought experiment, to me, one of the things that is most dangerous right now is the weak economy that is giving rise to party,like the neo-nazi in greece that is because of the euro. thethe mismanagement of euro. >> and mismanagement of the euro is giving rise to the divisions in europe and we have not seen for a long time. canwrong economic policies be very dangerous. >> very quickly, 30 seconds, can
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the eurozone be fixed? >> yes, i believe it can be. the more difficult question is with the influence of germany at the helm, -- stiglitz earlier today. still ahead, sounding the alarm all day, apple reporting results after the close. can the company diversify a spot at lineup in the face of lagging sales? ♪
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david: stocks fluctuating, bouncing between gains and losses as investors juggle a slew of earnings at the fed meeting tomorrow. julie hyman is standing by with how the options market has all
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the action. julie: joining me is kevin kelly, chief investment officer. we have been talking a lot about how voluntary -- volatility remains low even as ernie season has begun. within the bond market is slow going into the fed meeting. no changes expected, and yet, people keep adding on volatility. >> absolutely. when you look at the curve, it is showing 18 by june and at least a fix of 20 by september. think of all the catalysts facing us, two conventions for the party, the fed potentially doing a hike. you touched on it earlier. in september, there may be another rate hike. how will that impact the stronger dollar earnings? we are seeing very range bound. a lot of names have reported and there is not a thought -- a lot of volatility there. opens -- open interest, 7.5
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million contract, compared to last year during the first quarter of 2015, the average was 2 million to 4 million. everyone is position themselves for volatility to come back, just now within the next 30 days. the vix's 30 day. >> there are also people positioning themselves for vix. bestie will have been on for the last months, at least. have we already seen people get squeezed out of the trade? some of theout how leveraged volatility etf can see big increases, that people have been betting on that and it has not happened. have we seen people getting burned? i say great play because the vix is very cheap now. this is meant to use as a hedge. you do not have a lot of speculation. coming in and rebalancing portfolios and trying to take out the risk especially after what we saw in january. we are not seeing while moves and people start to change their
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positions because they are protected. let's talk more about earnings and facebook in particular. a lot of bigger earnings after the bell today within technology. from what you heard so far from other tech firms, how are you feeling about google going into the quarter? tech, itou look into is depending on a name by name basis and ibm has not done well with the old legacy businesses. we will seattle apple come back tonight after the close. have beatenk, they eight out of the last eight quarters. the last quarter was a monster for them. it is actually trading below where it closed at post earnings last quarter. one way to participate is if you like the name but you do not want to pay up or you have participation on the upside, you can actually do a risk reversal. you can sell or go out to 100. that is where you want to own the stock. a lot of people would buy it there.
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then you would actually want, you saw that and take the proceeds. $113 called strike, and these expire this friday, so with the stock above 160 and, you participate all the way to the upside and you do not actually have to pay out for that. the important thing is if you get a strategy like this, you would have lost less on google when they came down on microsoft. you are risking less to actually participate to the upside. that is why options strategies are great during the earnings season. .> thank you, kevin back to you, david. david: how are the results impacting the broader market. we discuss next with the nasdaq down. more bloomberg markets after the break. ♪
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david: you are watching bloomberg markets.
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mark crumpton has more from the news desk. to be seen as a more serious candidate, donald trump will kick off a series of foreign-policy speeches wednesday. it includes specialists who view the billionaire as erratic and misguided. he has faced criticism for making campaign promises, such as any muslims from entering the united is enforcing mesko to pay for a border wall and making gulf states to pay for a safe zone in syria. the justices will take up the public corruption case and former virginia governor, but mcdonald's. -- mcdonnell.ell gifts and loans from a wealthy businessman and exchange promoting a dietary supplement. congress will not act to help puerto rico the head of a
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deadline. that is when bond payments come due according to kevin mccarthy, house majority leader. mccarthy said he is hopeful the bipartisan agreement could emerge from the house by july. an explosion of april 26 of 1986 at the power plant killed at least 30 people, exposed millions to dangerous levels of radiation, and forced a widescale permanent evacuation of hundreds of towns and villages. suing members of led zeppelin say their client is willing to settle a lawsuit over stairway to heaven for just a dollar. there is a catch. jimmy page and robert would have to give the late musician a writing credit on the iconic 1971 song.
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the copyright infringement case -- global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 100 and 50 news bureaus around the world. back to you. markets close in 30 minutes. the nasdaq composite is on pace to fall for a fourth consecutive day. with the latest, abigail? abigail: jetblue beat first-quarter earnings estimates. the takeaway was ceo robin hayes on the call saying the company toects in the second quarter drop by 7% and a c capacity declining in the seventh half. sharply earlier to year to date lows. but a have recovered question of whether or not those lows could hold. reporting after the close, twitter consents for the company
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to make 10% of the share on 607.5 million dollars, estimates that rbc's mark says very reasonable and possibly beatable but they should be focused on a stop thaters, appears to be rebounding in a trading range, suggesting the shares of twitter could climb back toward the ipo price of $26 per share. david: we are counting down the minutes until after the bell. what do we see from the stock? >> they thing is how bad would an anticipated decline in iphone sales be? the company to have sold 67 million iphone units and in the quarter above that, it could be positive. pacific crest came out today saying they expect the company to miss and guide down. michael is saying while he is
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positive on 2017, he think's iphone sales are likely to decline for the rest of fiscal --area these expectations destinations could help explain why the stock is dropping down. apple could just trade back down toward recent lows of $92 per share. apple is facing uncharted territories. the tech giant is expected to report a drop in iphone sales for the first time ever. how crucial a shift is this? john butler is a senior analyst who joints me now. good to see you again. this chart says it all, a bart chart going back to 2008 showing step up for year after year. this is something different today. >> that is the big question. are we at peak sales on the iphone now? it is hard to say. product cycle,
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you do not know what to you look back in time and say, that was the peak. one thing i will say about apple is they are very good about pulling the proverbial rabbit out of a hat. there could be big surprises in store with the iphone seven. that is coming in the september and october timeframe. could see wireless charging, a better camera, and i am hoping for a better screen on the device. we all have the wish list, but the reality is, they could come out with a feature set that might just resonate and rejuvenate sales in the category, because we saw it happen with iphone 6, leading up to the introduction of the large screen iphone, iphone sales growth was beginning to take down people were making sort of a similar call, like are we there yet, have we seen peak iphone? the when iphone 6 came out, all bets were off and everyone was wrong.
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there is that potential to what is important about tonight for me and a lot of investors is hearing how management is thinking about what is next. a hardware category, they have pc and smart phones and tablets. what is next? can they really cannot, there are not hardware categories to get into at this point. what do you do next? you heard this said before. i think content is one of the best answers for them. first, distribution. i could ultimately see apple pulling production. >> like they did there in the past. been they has always could build on that experience and video. i think they need to come to the table with content producers, with an understanding that the power is more on the other side
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of the table than it was at the time of the music video -- the music is this hurting. been looking for the big facelift in itunes where they could use the platform and estimated 800 million users with credit card accounts there. and really build on that. they have not done that yet. but it isicloud confined only to apple users. it is a consumer product and yet cloud over the past five to 10 years has been a strong vertical. get ak they need to little more proactive about identifying where the growth is, leveraging their assets like i soon soar icloud, and also leveraging the great global brand name that they have. >> you mentioned hardware and you set piece and tablets and smartphones to i do not need to point out that you do not say the watch. what is your sense of how the watches doing?
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>> the smart watch category so far i think has been a disappointment by most early estimates. one thing, i personally think everyone is missing there is that watches are not -- they are really an accessory, a piece of jewelry. they say something about the watch owner. i am not sure what a smart watch says about you, necessarily. it has a fan base. there is a lot of utility there but the processing power is not there yet. that includes the apple watch. watches including the apple watch to a large degree are often tethered to the smartphone . i think over time, they have got to break the bond and really become an independent computing device on the rest in order to be successful. >> i do not mean to be clip that you look at the chart and you , you seeupward
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manufacturing doubling. if that has to stop at some point, why is that such a negative thing? what does it tell apple when you reach peak? >> peak iphone sales? they become a victim of their own success in a way. i think they never could have guessed how successful the iphone has been. look at what happened, they underestimated the sales of that device it up -- alone. better version of the iphone, it is to the power of the brand. this will be a big test for tim cook. he came in at a time when apple was ramping up rapidly. he is a logistics expert, right guy at the right time. he has got to prove himself once again is the right guy the right time as apple needs to -- >> thank you very much, john. apple earnings are coming out after the bell. coming up, a huge week for
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central banks with the markets growing patient for janet yellen in the -- joe weisenthal is next. ♪
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david: it is time for a look at some of the biggest is in stories in the news right now. shares are up today onward brazil'supreme court revoked a ceoe owner -- the former .as been holed up in his home he was arrested in november on charges of obstructing a federal investigation. turner broadcasting teaming up -- teaming up.
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-- the subscription fee has not been announced. bywill be curated programmers from turner classic movies, the cable network. to give his 2000 full-time employee shares with up to 10 widelyp -- 10% considered to be worth billions of dollars. it could make some employees multimillionaires. turning back on the federal reserve this week. take a look. the current index of assets higher. i am sure tomorrow as well. joe weisenthal is here now. walk me through the chart and the significance of it. how have the bond markets reacted? of,here is always the sort
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it is always hard to disentangle market moves and the fed. saw basically everything bottom in the middle of february commodities,g from stocks, emerging markets, everything has rallied since then as it has been perceived that the fed has gotten more dovish. nobody expects the fed to do anything. the real question is, do they can't at leaving the door open to the june meeting? at the moment, the market assigns a low ebb -- low probability in june. the question is, does the fed even want to take a stab at telling the market that june is >> the fed does not want to be seen as blowing credibility and postponing rate hikes indefinitely, it though people of its there might only be one rate hike this year, we have had decent data on employment, our signs that inflation is picking up.
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to put ites not want out forever if it looks like a push-up on rate hikes forever, if it looks like the data is coming in, then the fed might be worried about credibility. kind of an overblown concern. would want the market to think theoretically a rate hike is always on the table if the data is going in the right direction. i guess the challenge for the fed tomorrow is they do not want to be hawkish because there has been a great rebound in world markets, no reason to stop that train prematurely but on the other hand, it does not want to be seen as pushing rate hikes off the table. so somehow, maybe leave the door open without it looking like it is june. >> we have seen a real downturn volatility. >> the story of the post prices -- post crisis environment has been an extraordinarily low volatility. overve seen some spikes
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the years, 2011, august of last year, the massive spike, the first month and a half, but he has gotten really quite again it is another thing that seems like the fed is capable of, really quieting down markets. david: we were talking about the balance of risks. when you talk about the data, they're going to be looking at it. what ucf the highlights of that? >> they are pretty close on the employment part. except for wages, they are a bit weak. the real question is, and the wages kind of straddle both employment data and inflation data because theoretically if wage data picks a it gives people more buying power, it is all prices to go up here the general trend has been for inflation to have higher, with the exception of the most recent we got that kicks back down. think there is an
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upper friend or is the recent downtick cause for them to pull back? it seems like janet yellen is not particularly concerned about the uptrend. she has a tendency to always be right about these things. you have had a lot say that inflation is coming and show us is no, let's just wait and the p or she always ends up being right. the guess is she is not particularly concerned about upward pressure on inflation. bank of japan, the obviously have negative rates, a conversation about how we do not know how the rates will work. it is not tried or tested. do we have more data now indicating if that is working or not and when will we get that? >> i do not think we have a lot of data indicating that it is working or not. it seems to be the new trend in monetary policy just over the last several weeks, more about central banks going back toward bounce sheet expansion, by more
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assets, japan already owns a lot of assets, whether government bonds or equity, in companies. more roomis probably to run on that front. or, some more targeted measures and subsidizing further bank lending. we might not see a further headline cut deeper into negative interest rates, but other measures to try to weaken the end. it.hank you, we appreciate that is joe joining me here. coming up, the close of trade is moment -- minutes away. looking like the nasdaq is down. the s&p is down 1/10 of 1%. the dow is virtually unchanged. the dollar weakens toward a 10 month low here. we see it down. more bloomberg markets coming up after the break. ♪
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david: markets close in about 10 minutes time. julie: we're taking a look at major averages, muddling along as people consider the earnings news and look ahead to apple and the fat. if you look at the biggest contributors to any gains we are seeing in major averages, you have a mixed bag of earnings and other types news. wells fargo rising and general electric on not a lot of fundamental news. i'm it, natural resources cannot on earnings report and raised its production forecast. a lot of tech movers are declining today. microsoft is down. falling on its earnings, after that an apple. all of them are declining. as we set up for the fed meeting, let's look at what is going on outside of stocks.
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we have got the weekly inventories report tomorrow. consider the fact that the 10-year note has fallen for the past seven sessions, and risen in yield. the bloomberg dollar index is down a little bit today. i wanted to rip off matt miller's battle of the chart this morning. take a look, 1062. what he is looking at here is the move index, a measure of volatility in the global bond market. this is a bloomberg u.s. financial conditions index. he has inverted that one. the lower the blue line gets, the better the positions get. financial numbers have been improving. upon volatility has been going down, which is what you might expect. given the fled -- fed theibility to raise rates fed is considering the globe.
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david: second place chart. day for tech earnings and all of the action is about to kick off in a few minutes. the excitement is palpable. we have talked a lot about the expectation that iphone sales are going to be less than good. >> the first sales decline in more than a decade. thequestion is, how that is decline? apple has conditional market for a drop off. iphone,version of the that has not quite kicked in yet and there is a new iphone in september. we're in an in between time. seven
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>> there is a concern right now about a global saturation of the smart phone market. if you want a smart phone, you have already bought it i large. not many new people are coming in the market a lot more give-and-take, pillaging each other's customers, samsung and baffled, etc.. what is tim cook doing in order to kind of get apple prepared for the shift in demand? what is the next new thing? the last earnings call, we started to hint at the idea of virtual reality. that is still a ways off. is in the works, but again, it is not something that will kick in right away, so will the next iphone be special enough to reinvigorate demand and excitement over smartphones -- smartphones? the story seems to be
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they cannot get user growth where they want to be. >> absolutely. it is sales growth and see advertisers excited on innovating a bit and changing the product. when they need to do is get new people excited about it. a lot of people, journalists chief among them, who love twitter, love the platform, love the way for us to get our stories in front of an audience you're the problem is they need to reach new people. ,e are seeing some new things for example to deal with the nfl. will that bring enough new blood in users to the platform where we start to see results? people will start to see the numbers very closely. amazon reports tomorrow per what do you expect? the amazon at coke, i imagine web services doing well. >> they are doing well, great margin on the business are a lot of ending on new initiatives and that is hurting profitability.
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>> all of the stuff they are pursuing as well? >> it will pay off but down the road, not quite trickling through right away. getting people into the ecosystem, that is how it will pay off? >> echo is a great example, to get us to rely upon this. you very much. that is it for bloomberg markets p are what did you miss on the market close is up next. a look at the major indexes, the dow barely changed come up about 2.17 thousand. of 1/10 of 1%. the nasdaq is down .2%. what did you miss is coming of next here on bloomberg television. -- coming up next here on bloomberg television. ♪
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âi >> we are moments away from the closing bell. i am scarlet fu. joe: i am joe weisenthal. "what'd you miss?" alix steel is off today.
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♪ scarlet: u.s. stocks closing changethe s&p 500 little , oil topping $45 a barrel. 's earnings cross at 4:30 p.m. new york time. aroundn jack dorsey turn -- can jack dorsey turn around user growth? scarlet: and a june rate increase? we begin with our market minutes. volume was lighter than average, trading that dow down 13% based on the 10 day average. trading was up


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