tv With All Due Respect Bloomberg April 26, 2016 8:00pm-9:01pm EDT
mark: i'm mark halperin. john: i'm john heilemann, and with all due respect to amtrak, it seems like you have an itty bitty problem with your branding. >> and is billed as the a slip primary. >> the accelerated primary. >> what some are calling the -- >> what some are calling -- >> the amtrak primary, it's being called a lot of different things because the famous acela train. ♪
grabs and a lot of bragging rights. what would make this a great night for donald trump and what would make it a super duper mega monday night for donald trump? mark: 15 contests left and five of them are tonight. the numbers have been crunched and looking at the different scenarios and these states all have different rules. under this scenario, and i have crosschecked his work, his worst night, barring some surprise, he will win all five states. his worst night gets him over the number that the other campaigns have said if he gets that many, he's closer to being in a position to being in a majority. john: he could be under 100 delegates. you it's on to get 60% of the remaining delegates. that would make it more of an uphill fight.
mark: if you look at maryland, there are some districts around the washington area where john kasich might pick up some delegates. given the rhode island rules, trump is not going to win them all, but other than that -- then there is pennsylvania. one friend of ours and i had a dispute. i say any unpledged delegate who says i'm going to vote with my district, any of them who trump wins the district, i think it would he hard. john: do you think trump is going to win all of the republican districts in pennsylvania? mark: yes. john: the only confusing thing is 71 delegates in pennsylvania, 17 winner take all and the other 54 are unbound delegates.
some of them have said what you said. some of them are inclined to vote. mark: we have also spent the day cringing the data on the democratic side. hillary clinton tries to turn her attention to the general election and bernie sanders says he's staying in the race until the end no matter what anyone's advocates suggest. egwhat would constitute a good night and what would constitute would constitute a good night and what would constitute a super great night? john: first, she has to win all five. there's some chance she could lose it rhode island. pat devine, in this room, said there was some optimism about consulting. it's not totally impossible that sanders could pull off a michigan thing in pennsylvania.
if hillary clinton lost one or two states, she would not suffer much in terms of delegat, but she could maybe not slam the door shut on sanders rhetorically. this is about clinton given a speech which continues to ease sanders out of the race which continues to show appeal for the whole democratic party and talk about the themes of the general election. john: there was a suggestion today that bernie sanders might reassess.
it seems if hillary clinton one all five by double digits -- not inconceivable, that would give sanders a kind of cause that might be different. mark: it is less in that case about the psychology and momentum than it is about the math. if she has a great night, for sanders to explain how he can be nominated is a much more torturous thing. at that point, it is possible that why are you even in this race? mathematically, it's not there.
john: you know what is presidential? twitter trolling at 6:00 in the morning. he took to the social media to blasted the allegedly collusion between ted cruz and john kasich in indiana were trump wrote "the crews and kasich hack is under great strain. it's falling apart and almost dead. and in the patented trump exclamation. this morning, john kasich phoned in to the today show and put forth a vigorous defense as perfectly above board. governor kasich: his whole business is about stopping hillary clinton from being president. i'm just not campaigning.
when you don't campaign in certain areas in any kind of a race, your turnout goes down. i don't tell people how to vote. i'm not in that state right now but i will be in other states and i will be at the convention trying to become president of the united states because i have the record and capability to win in the fall. mark: trump is doing a great job attacking it. the press agrees with trump's analysis more and more. it was a smart thing to do, but the candidates continue to act like they are trying to sabotage. their rhetoric is about process. they are not turning their attention to issues voters would care about.
i think they have undermined the possibility this will work through the candidates failure to explain this in a way that is optimistic, uplifting, passionate. john: they've been horrible in different ways. kasich has been defensive and weird and inexplicable. i think the way kasich has explain this is almost incomprehensible.
mark: he could have flooded the zone with surrogates. forget the process, what you need to know his donald trump should not be our nominee. john: which is in a funny way with the best of the rhetoric was, the most effective rhetoric in wisconsin, which should be the model. mark: they should empower voters to give them the best candidates are not donald trump. when we come back, a daisy chain of political strategists -- wait until you see who we pair up on this show. ♪
>> donald trump, in addition to being a friend, he's a brilliant businessman, he's a great celebrity and knows how to milk that for everything. he's a good entertainer, so naturally he is getting a lot of attention from the press and angry voters. but he will not be president and will not be the nominee. john: what would have to happen for you to say this trump thing for real? >> he would have to go out and win. mark: that former mccain advisor, charlie black and former romney adviser, george stevens. both have been guests on this show before, both have good senses of humor and both showed some skepticism donald trump would be their party's nominee,
so we have them back to talk about the race. you are obviously not the only two that doubted trump would be the nominee. you have known trump for a long time. what is the single thing you think you underestimated -- obviously he's not the nominee yet that he's done better than either of you thought he would. did you underestimate something about trump or the electorate? guest: i underestimated the extent to which the press would let trump get away with murder and not talk detail on issues. the electorate is angry, may be more angry than i realized. i still don't think he's going to be the nominee. mark: what did you get wrong to lead to the conclusion that trump would not win iowa, new hampshire, etc.? guest: i thought there would be a more focused effort on stopping trump. he did lose iowa. he was weak and therefore a few days.
i would have thought there would have been a concentrated effort among the candidates to focus on trump and try to stop him. john: if you were listening to this program a few minutes ago, you would have heard the host harshly criticizing the way in which your guy, john kasich and ted cruz have been messaging this alliance they have put together, how they have been explaining it and selling it.
guest: john kasich does not like to talk process. this doesn't matter. no voters are going to decide to vote against either one of these guys because they did not message correctly. mark: was this deal a good idea for the stop trump effort? guest: sure. indiana is the most important of these and i think it is important ted cruz wins indiana. when you cut through this, the most important thing is john kasich is not putting a big effort in indiana. if you are a voters sitting home in indiana, that is what is going to sink home the most to you -- that this is a choice between ted cruz and donald trump.
i think that will benefit ted cruz. i think that's going to be the real test here in a weekend if he wins, that will be good for those of us who don't want trump. if he doesn't, that will be bad for us. mark: you have been very close to all metaphor and you have known mr. trump for a long time. what do you make of their new alliance? guest: i think it was very smart of donald to bring paul in. he's a very experienced manager and experienced convention guy. the jury is out on whether his advice will be taken but it was a smart move on donald's part and paul hasn't done this in a few years, so welcome back, paul and good luck with that candidate. mark: what is in it for paul? guest: he likes the game. he enjoys politics and has participated in many of these conventions.
he believes in the guy and would like to get another win, but nevertheless, think he's going to have difficulty even during the nomination. mark: do you think his skills are something that will make trump's chances of winning more likely? guest: yes. i think you have to give donald trump credit for realizing the team he had was not a team that could get him to glory and making changes. i have tremendous respect for paul manafort. he will respect the difficulty of this task and everyone who goes through it is humbled by it whether you win or lose, and i have done both. you have to approach it with the
john: we are joined by stuart stevens who is not backing any candidates in the cycle and joining him is the ragin'cajun, james carville. we have just then discussing the alliance between ted cruz and john kasich. from a distance, does that look like smart politics to you in terms of stopping trump? james: when you're behind, you do things and nothing looks very smart. they tried to do something and it just and come off very well. you don't want to get your brains need in. it was fourth and 72 and they didn't want to hunt, so they swung it up in the air. it wasn't the most elegant pass i've ever seen but i can't lane them for trying. john: let's assume that this pact plays out over the course
of the next few weeks. what is your prediction now? is your view that donald trump is more likely to get to 1230 seven delegates by june 8? guest: you would rather be trump in this process than anyone else. i think the best bet is that trump will be short after california. i think indiana will be very important. the up and down side of tonight is an great. trump will have a good night even in the worst case scenario. i would bet trump is probably going to be 100 plus delegates short after california. that would be my bet. mark: would you still think that if trump one indiana? guest: if trump wins indiana, it will be psychologically problematic for those opposing trump.
mark: i want to move over to the democrats. how would you handicap a possible clinton-trump general election? guest: clinton will crush trump. just focus on white women. romney one women but trump is losing them. with hispanics, republican hispanics, there are not that many of them and trump has a 60% unfavorable. mark: doesn't the prospect of campaigning turn those numbers around? guest: i don't think it's that good because he's so well known. ted cruz is losing to hillary but by three. trump is losing by 10. that could be the united states senate. plus people don't know ted cruz as well as a no-trump. trump has been around forever, his negatives are really high,
and those who are for him are very passionate about him, but those who are against him are very passionate. not a lot of wishy-washy to move around in the campaign. i think it would be a cakewalk for hillary clinton. john: i know you will say hillary clinton is the prohibitive favorite against donald trump, but what do you think is the main thing she has to worry about in that race? what are you the most concerned about? james: in a change environment and change electorate, the thing that you have to do is that she represents the right kind of change. i agree with stuart, that if trump goes in with a lot to overcome, i think she has to execute and talk about the things she wants to do and how she wants to make the country different and how she can be for
change also. john: there's no way in which you think trump, given his volatility, that that would be psychologically destabilizing? james: everyone wants to say trump has a chance but this clinical thing started with bertha rhythm, which is the most asinine, racist things since george wallace ran for president. john: thank you for doing this. james carville will stay there. we will be right back. ♪
women. >> would you name a couple? bernie sanders: no. it is early to speculate. but elizabeth warren i think has been a real championship standing up for working families and taking on wall street. >> we are back with longtime clinton ally james carville and joining us from our washington bureau, in the obama administration, anita dunn two is not affiliated with either campaign this year. thank you for taking the handoff. that me start with you. if you were advising the campaign, what is the best proper role for bernie sanders and his supporters at my convention presuming she gets a majority? anita: let him make his primetime speech and let him talk directly to this country
about the differences between the two parties. primaries are about fighting for the direction of the political party but general elections are fighting for the direction of the nation. a sanders primetime speech convention, let him lay out the indictment of the republicans and the difference between the two parties. being to his supporters and people that have been attracted to his message. >> james, what is the best role? james: it will be her convention but generally, other candidates are allowed to speak. i'm sure all that will be negotiated going into the convention. he should have a speech at an important time in the convention. i don't have a problem with that. >> you are obviously for hillary clinton but one thing that is
clear is that sanders has spoken to young democrats and young voters more powerfully. what can she learn from him? what does she have to do to get the enthusiasm of those voters? james: sanders has a critique of the system that is a bit superficial but i think any political party once young people like this. they have a huge advantage. he will make it better. there aren't is yes to members of the democratic party. it will require some political skill and dexterity. it will require patience and all of those things that she will demonstrate what she has. >> what are the issues that
matter to millennial voters? what can hillary clinton do while staying true to herself on policy and temperament to be able to connect with those voters in? anita: the issues that bernie sanders are talking about our issues i think ellery clinton is very comfortable talking about. hillary has 30 years of experience of what happens when you have interested ganging up against progressive issues.
she can speak to that as well as anybody. i think she can speak to education as well as anybody. she led education reform when she was first lady of arkansas. what hillary clinton has is a lot of areas of agreement with bernie sanders and also has a passion for a lot of the things he's been talking about in terms of making lives better for regular people. james: they think the system is rigged and she has to convince them. people around the country think the system is being corrupted by money. and she's got to be able to speak to that. i think she can do that. she's got to talk about that. and to some extent, i can't blame them.
>> there was a war room in little rock that had a sign on the wall that said change versus more of the same and the other one was "it's the economy stupid." anita: i don't think those things are a bad place to start, to be honest. change versus going backwards, more of the same versus going backwards. it is the economy, but it's about jobs. it is about the people. not dissimilar from what james tacked up in the war room are core precepts moving forward. >> what would you put up in the war room in brooklyn?
james: the change we are going to bring about, we will have a government that works for you. and we will take on the kind of people that are working against you. people have to feel it's a level playing field out there. trump wants to take us back to 1958. that's not the way to go. she's got to talk about how she wants to level the playing field and i think she can do that very effectively. >> you have lost some of your pithiness since 1992. you can also hear them on the radio, 99.1 fm. we will be right back. ♪
hillary clinton is going to do what if she wins big? she will do what in terms of how she handles bernie sanders? >> hopefully she will figure out how to bring them along. that makes it more inevitable and has a touch of grace. some saying it allows him to feel good about himself and allows his fans to feel ok about her while making clear like she
did that she is winning. >> are we going to have the nass of the kind margaret is suggesting? >> maybe tonight and tomorrow morning because he needs to be statesmen in the morning in needs to be shown in the evening. one of those spectrums with a new and evolved persona. >> if i were ted cruz, i would be praying for a massive thunderstorm to met -- knockout the power, the cable, the internet. i don't think that's going to happen, but there is so little time between tonight and that
primary. it will be very difficult to change the dynamics of the race in six days. >> what is on hillary clinton's to do list? how do you suspect she will spend this time between now and the convention? >> you are looking at a few potential things. at the news's attention to bernie sanders. endorsements are not out yet. she is waiting for him to meet her halfway or maybe 20% of the way. how she can react in move things forward. how did she get to be right with him? and number two is this trump thing. >> sanders hits her for being
friends with donald trump. that is not in the spirit of ratcheting down. the first time he has wielded that. >> it was incredible. write a time when she knows she's trying to calibrate how to reach out to supporters. it's pretty aggressive and more signs from the strategist that there may be a reassessment after tonight. there is a small opening to suggest he is beginning to rethink it and any time he >> we keep waiting for a trigger to get on board the trump train. i don't suspect it will happen after tonight but could we see that after indiana? >> i think it could start to happen.
i thought the convention was fairly likely. i know you two gentlemen are still sort of split on that topic but it is feeling less than a 50% probability. >> i think it is pretty close to binary. if he wins indiana, i think he gets there. probably not going to be a pullback. >> i think it is really hard. let me ask you this question. since then, there has been reports of turmoil in the trump world about things that he said down there.
how will that play with delegates when it looks to be an unstable situation? >> members went away from the gathering feeling somewhat reassured but still skeptical. the parties are asking them with going on with this trump situation. i think it is going to reassure the party establishment. >> i never hear anything bill clinton says. why is he making no news? >> there are probably trying hard to keep him from making news. he's really taken her off message. stay out of trouble. >> when they are sitting down and listing troubles, what is on their list of troubles? >> is bill clinton on their list of troubles? >> anything.
>> things are going great for them right now. she's having trouble containing how good she feels about that. the fbi investigation is out there and a chance it will not be resolved in a timely fashion. >> always with the g-man. >> resplendent in the color of money over there. john mccormack, slightly less resplendent. not the color of money. we will talk about independent presidential candidates in the two-party world. after a very brief break. ♪
we started out by asking the success donald trump and bernie sanders this year running contrary to his argument that process is closed off. >> the thing that they don't have together is they don't represent independent voices that are simultaneously attractive to moderates. that coalition is not represented in either of them. what we really need is a pathway. people that represent that coalition have a fair chance to compete. mark: are you sure there is room for someone to be a distinctive voice and an important voice
between the two major parties as opposed to bernie sanders on the left and donald trump on the populace right? >> when you try to conceptualize the third as fitting an ideological crease, you are only missing the point. the independents today, they have a range of references tempered by a feeling about those preferences. and you got altogether -- and if you put that altogether, they don't match what they are. they love to see a viable third. >> talk about leveling the playing field and what you are trying to do right now. >> the idea is to create an internet-based voting system that could nominate based on 50 states. we got a lot of that done.
and this is my problem as leaders. i underestimated the difficulty getting into the debates. when they go to their friends of the two parties and ask, what do you think of that, they had to finger point and say it would be bad for you. if i win, i will be on the ballot, which is cool. after two and a half years of trying, i just thought it was easier than it was. what i found was that it was mathematically, no chance of somebody getting to the bates who wasn't a democrat or republican or an independent completely self-funded.
even they would have huge risks. so if i said to your viewers right now, let's create a law that only democrats and republicans can be president, i would say everyone of your viewers would say that's a terrible idea and unconstitutional. noxious thing to suggest. because of the way it is structured, that is what we are going to get. and we have a motion for summary judgment against the federal election commission to force the rules to be changed. and the things that come before it, the ballot access rules and how you can raise money. if you are an independent, you can raise $2700 a person. it's a $15 million bill. i've been through it.
if you are at $2700, you should be gathering four times better than bernie sanders. before you get any name recognition, you have to sit down with people with 150,000 people and assuming they all say yes, it is 300,000. that is why no individual who is not a billionaire has ever made it on the ballot for president. that's the effect of our system that in this day and age must be rectified. mark: i understand what you're doing and i have great intellectual sympathy for it. it isn't the reality that no matter what progress you have, until there is a person that can do this and has the political abilities through self funding or the ability to raise money, nothing you do will matter? and if there is such a person, they will not need this and will be
able to make these things happen? >> bernie sanders was asked, you are an independent socialist. what are you running as a democrat? he said because you wouldn't be interviewing me today. when you have a process you follow to a normal conclusion of anticipation and you talk about it everyday. take trump. >> he would meet every standard would be in the debates. >> what we are seeing now is we are seeing how the it's your rules we don't see and think about until the moment you think
♪ good morning. this is "trending business". ♪ we will be live in new york, singapore, and sydney this hour. but first, here is what we are watching. apple plunging after hours, of first quarterly revenue drop in a decade. demand for iphones wayne's. the white house front runners are having another good day