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tv   Leaders with Lacqua  Bloomberg  April 30, 2016 4:30am-5:01am EDT

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call or go online and switch to x1. only with xfinity. with lacqua." the focus on the banking industry. some banks were brought to their came, standard chartered out unscathed. june 2015, bill winters was picked to turn the company around. sold 19 businesses and hired new management. he is no stranger to the banking world. he spent 26 years at jpmorgan.
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worked on regulation and started his own alternative asset management firm. as ceo,irst interview he sat down with me exclusively. thank you so much. it's a pleasure to speak to you again. how are you settling in? bill: it's going well. the thing that attracted me in the first place is the great history, really exciting markets, clients it know the bank well and like the bank a lot. i came knowing the plenty of problems as well. i knew there were problems unexpected the environment would be challenging. here we are a year after i it's everything i expected.
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we've got a great franchise with a ton of opportunity. we have a ton of problems as well and i try to be transparent about it. in august, when i made my first book statements about the bank, we had a robust program of actions. we are doing it. the profitability is poor. the earnings are poor. we said we were going to do a bunch of things and we are doing them. the market took it as an encouraging sign. the market understands what our clients know, there is a ton of business for us to do. francine: impairments are better than expected? that i'm not sure what means. our stock has been up and down like a yo-yo. had overextended ourselves in a number of areas. concentrations in areas that were hardest hit. that's not a coincidence.
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there tends to be more demand for money that people who like to get into trouble. we identified the problem before i arrived and were very transparent. we dealt with it. year and that we are comfortable with our portfolio and we have a lot more to do. we have a portfolio of laugh -- assets to be liquidated. we had some concentrations that we are still watching. our portfolio is in good shape. francine: can you talk to us about dividends? bill: we cut back our dividend at the half year last year. we canceled our dividend. we did that in part because we were asking our shareholders for capital. importantly, we said this is the time to reset our thinking.
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we understand our shareholders care about the dividend and they want a dividend and we want to pay a dividend. we want to resume at a time when we have a visibility into our earnings that demonstrates capital strength that we can sustain. francine: this year or not? bill: it's possible. we have said how important this is to shareholders. francine: how do you increase revenue in this environment? bill: what we experienced last year was shrinking demand for our balance sheets. the returns were compressed because of strong local competition. the firstews in quarter is we halted the decrease in our balance sheet and the decrease in income. the income level is suppressed. that is because we have underinvested in many years. we are investing a lot in this business right now. $3 billion to save from our operating expense and
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we are putting that back into our core franchise. infrastructure, client relation competitiveving a advantage, that's the key way to get income. we have a set of client relationship managers that were focused on one set of measures historically. it was around growing income topline, not an returns. we shifted the focused toward terms and there is a risk that in that transition you lose the focus on growth. i think we've got the balance right. our relationship managers are trained and focus on getting the market share up and getting the client up. we need clients that are investing in their own businesses. francine: it's a very fine balance. are you ready to take a loss for the year so you get the market share you are happy with? bill: it's actually very good.
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we have seen some slippage in some markets in retail. most of the income downdraft has been the result of commodity prices, lower levels of global trade. last year was the first year and longtime fit trade grew at a slower rate than underlying gdp. francine: it's not impossible? bill: we are of the over $500 million in the first order. we would have to do that for the rest of the year to generate a loss. we hope we can grow income this year. we have demonstrated a good control expenses so far. of one of the bigger exposures has a surprising turn for the worst that could have in impact on us. francine: what about litigation? is that behind you? bill: probably. we are very transparent about a number of investigations that we have with u.s. authorities and the fca record -- relating to
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money laundering compliance and sanctions going back to 2012 and a little bit beyond. those are open investigations and we don't know when they will include. they have to run their course. we are cooperating as fully as we can and we are doing our own investigations. nobody in the bank intentionally misled any of our external stakeholders. talks about the risks he sees in monetary policy. bill: it feels a little bit like a rubber band that's been stretched. francine: we will be back with that ace -- exclusive conversation. ♪
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francine: the majority of
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standard chartered comes from asia, africa, the middle east. that's where they have had a rough time. emerging markets have been hurt by bad debt and not enough structural reform. i asked bill winters about his outlook. argue more positive about china than you were six months ago? it seems like it's stabilized a little bit. overall, it feels better. better. does feel i was never in the doomsday camp. there were clearly some policy fumbles back in august last year. there was a failure to communicate intentions in the market about the equity market in the currency market. the actual economic activity is very good. can discount the numbers by
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a fair amount and it's still pretty good. i think the numbers are fair enough. towards a clear shift service and consumption-based economy. thinkis a growing and i demonstrated result to deal with the capacity overhangs. while i the growth think it is real, it's an increase in the debt stock. that is a policy matter. the big state banks and the markets are encouraging that creation. that is mortgaging the future. how much of that growth is manufactured through increased debt and continued capital spending versus real underlying growth. the majority is real underlying growth and most of us would be happy with 5% growth with no incremental increases in the debt stock. francine: you're not concerned about defaults?
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you will be quite active in china? bill: we are active in the local lending and the local markets. we are concerned about defaults. there has been an increase. they are still manageable. they are managed. the quality of our book in china is concentrated toward some companies and banks. the large banks. we are a trade bank. that is the nature of that business. that is encouraging. stresses and some strains as the economy adjusts, in the old economy areas. we think this is manageable in the overall scheme of things. francine: what are the biggest risks you see out there? fed? mistakes from the the: my biggest concern is
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effect of extraordinary monetary stimulus over time with an something different from region to region, that is bringing up some imbalances. it feels like a rubber band that is being stretched. the pressure on banks to increase capital is to see through an unexpected shock. that is the macro theme. francine: a possible recession? a freezing up of liquidity in the markets? commoditym a big going under? bill: i must worry about the systemic risks. i think the wobble we saw last year when there was concern that monetary stimulus in that case in europe and japan was having diminishing returns. that may be the only tool in the
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arsenal. francine: negative rates really haven't worked as expenses -- expected. we have not played this one out and no one knows how it ends. we have to be careful and aware of that. aat's why i am comfortable in well-capitalized position and am resilient against things we are concerned about that don't know how they will play out. the other wrist that you the market became very concerned about the combination of a tightening fed and the china whose objectives were unclear. francine: janet yellen has been dovish, she has become a lot more hawkish in the next couple of weeks or months, what does that do to emerging markets and that? bill: i think the emerging markets are much better prepared for an interest rate differential relative to where they were two years ago. as we saw last year and we saw
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from the volatility this year, a little bit of stimulus creates a lot of jitters in the marketplace. i think the fed has to be careful. increase,s a fed rate i think the market will handle it. we have had a good run. we have a supply surplus in the oil markets. reached a have reasonable equilibrium for this supply bracket. we have continued growing demand. at the end of the day, if the growth in china is right or it's that fueled, it still 6.8% growth. there is demand for oil in the united states and china and its positive. come off and it will begin to come off. cost producers will capitulate. i think we will see a
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stabilization of commodity prices. francine: where do you see the bright spots? i know there is china and they are still growing. lot and thewn a forecast is not good. bill: the bright spot closest to home is the banking system being very resilient right now. we have much higher levels of capital than we did just three years ago. we are much more liquid. the fund industry is much less diverse. cap markets are in much better shape, there is a much better shock absorber for the system. francine: this is worldwide? bill: absolutely. i think the u.s. got there faster. has gotten their slower. i feel comfortable with our capital market. we could absorb a severe shock. we will have a stress test this year and we will absorb that as well and carry on with their
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business. that is one very good piece of news. most of the world is still growing. francine: a little bit. it did.t as quickly as the parts of the world that are still growing, the demographics are very good. china is good in the short term. the rest of asia, india is growing, east africa is booming. across these markets, we still have growth and we have underlying demographics. this is a big part of global gdp. there are plenty of risks. there are plenty of them. we must be ready for those risks. the world feels like it has every opportunity to get back to a stable lower level of growth within your -- with a more stable financial system. to dollar rally is connected
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the whole risk off theme we have had on balance over the past year. i think it's too early to call the end of the risk off theme. i think we will have episodes of risk aversion and i think that gives the dollar someone here it -- length. francine: you are expecting volatility? bill: into next year. francine: bill tells us how he measures success. bill: we are going to be transparent about the problems and we will tell you what we're going to do about it. francine: moore with the winters. ♪
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francine: as they overhaul its business, other banks have new ceos in charge. sometimes it feels like they are chasing the same customer aaron i asked bill what kind of bank he wants to build. today is awe have great international take focused on a trade payment since serving affluent individuals and corporations in asia, the middle east, africa. we start with a franchise. we looked if there were parts of the franchise that weren't critical for our future. we recognize that we have
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fantastic opportunities in retail, commercial banking, a very strong corporate institutional business we want to continue to grow. we would like it to be a much better run version of what we are today. that will involve lots of ins and outs. we sold 19 businesses last year and we are selling a bunch of businesses right now. we are investing in our underlying businesses. that investment is organic and i think that's the right thing to do. there will be inorganic opportunities at some point. when we are ready to deal with those things, i'm not talking about big acquisitions, just holding our core strengths. francine: the oil price starting to fall? bill: we are doing what we need to do to get to the place were we have options open to us. we needed to strengthen our foundations and get our capital position rocksolid. we are in a good place right
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now. we need to tighten up everything around our control environment, this controls, expense controls. the ethical culture in the bank is fantastic. we were loose and how we just kept track of things. little mistakes got amplified. we had a very bad challenge getting out of that. better.to execute we need to invest intelligently and create long-term franchises off our core strengths. francine: how do you cut enough that that you have enough time to play out? bill: shareholders have been supportive. we went to them with a strategic plan last year and said it was a five-year plan. a poorout knowing operating environment with low growth and low commodity prices and low interest rates.
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we said we will get to 8% returns in three years. that is not a very exciting return. that's what we can do in the short term. in the long term, we think we can create real value. 90% of our shareholders shined up -- sign up for that deal. everyone who bought shares with agreed inmoney and terms of the bonus round to forgo any cash bonuses and put everything into hitting the targets we set out in november last year, you talk about the top 150 people in the company. got a management team that is completely aligned with shareholders. we are voting with our own wallets. we want the bank to be where wanted to be, but it's going to
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take time. francine: in asia, it's a crowded market. how do you differentiate yourself? bill: it means it's a fragmented market. it will consolidate overtime. there is a role for different types of players. there is a role for the big swiss banks who have a strong offshore offering. there is a role for local banks who are banking the emerging affluent and that's a natural place for us. there is a role for those in between, which is where we fit in neatly above are retail business. banking clients, we haven't offshore opening in singapore and london and dubai. we have offerings that are customized for high net worth clients that are also local banks with branches. we know the corporations that
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the individuals are running and owning. groundnatural sourcing for private banking customers. we understand there local requirements and their local needs. of course from time to time we will compete with a big swiss bank or a local bank in thailand or the philippines. the occupy an intermediate ground which as a truly global international bank we are almost unrivaled. francine: how do you measure success? is it the share price? bill: it may distress our shareholders to know that i don't watch the share price. it's not influencing what we're are doing every day when we come in tort. what we want to do is tighten up the ship in every way we can and serve our clients and develop comics that are relevant and understand the competitive environment and respond to it and let them get ahead of it.
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we are investing for the medium to long term. that's it. we know there are things we have to do right now. righte to be very strong now. we have to demonstrate that we are making progress against these things. we will lose the faith of the shareholders, even if we believe ourselves. we have tried to do that since i have been here. going to diagnose problems and tell you what we are going to do about it and then let you track it. we cannot control the price of oil and the rate of growth in china. we can be prepared for the downside and capitalize on the upside. we tell you what we are going to do and we are doing it. francine: what has surprised you most since you've been in charge? shareholders? what you'rever know really going to find on the inside. i came in thinking this was a bank with a superstrong ethical
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culture. people come here because they think they can help change the world. it's real. it's genuine in the bank. that's great to see. is thereside of that was a looseness to the weight we manage the place. i'm not laming anybody for that business. it came from years of great success with the bank outperformed. i get a time from shareholders who say how can we have seen such a great drop in price? things must be terrible. i can tell you what you were doing, you were encouraging management to grow more and get bigger. you were encouraging the bank to do the things that ultimately were its partial undoing. shareholders don't appreciate that. focusinge doing now is
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on what's great about the bank and what we can invest in to make it a lot better. that's what we're doing. francine: bill, thank you so much for your time. ♪
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