tv Bloomberg Markets Middle East Bloomberg May 3, 2016 12:00am-1:01am EDT
secretary tells bloomberg it should come this year. manus: it is 8:00 a.m. and 5:00 a.m. in london. i manus kearny, live from bloomberg's middle east headquarters in dubai. >> welcome to bloomberg markets, middle east. we are awaiting results from hsbc, due any moment right now. the net income is about $2.9 billion, according to estimates we have right here. they include pretax profits at $3.2 billion. we're waiting for hsbc. we are for these numbers to come through. as we do, run us to the background and talk to us about what we can expect with hsbc and the middle east.
manus: the middle east has always been an earnings giant for hsbc when it comes to bond issues. leag, that is what you want to look at on your bloomberg. let me give you some of the flavor. this year we are slipping down to rank number -- ranking number is slipping a little bit. $26 billion last year. they grabbed the lion's share of that and came in as number one at $5 billion. what does this really mean? they are doing a number of deals. they have been the top in the region for nine years. yes, i have had a deep dirty dive into the bloomberg. it is an integral part of the business. we are going to get into the discussion regarding what they
can do to control the cost. they are just like everybody else, having a tough time. bernstein is thing that hong kong's long growth will disappoint. reshard: they are certainly signs of that. revenuesoking also at at 13.8 billion dollars. the net income figure is $2.9 billion. we are just waiting for these numbers. as we do, let's get a snapshot of the trading day. japan closed its day and tomorrow, the holiday is taking place there. mom by has been trading for about 20 minutes so far -- mumbai has been trading for about 20 minutes so far. chinese market in shanghai, slowing between the losses and gains. the sensex is up by .25%.
awaye just about two hours from the opening of the emirates at 10:00coming on line a.m. we are looking at how things finished on monday. there we go, just following the regional trend. off by nearly 1%, but the dubai market general index, 1.8% down there. looking at saudi arabia there, to see what has been going on there. and this is the situation. the kuwait stock exchange down by .1%. hsbc again, down by .5%. let's look at cairo and tel aviv. the egyptian marketed follow the regional trend, but the egyptian market is up by 1%. let's look at commodities. this is what you have as part of your risk rate. brent crude is holding at the
$46 a barrel level. manus.ait for hsbc, manus: thank you very much. time today you up to speed with the stories making headlines. shery ahn is here this morning. ahn: the latest data from china underscores how japan has seen weaken external demand weighing on the economy. manufacturing fell to 49.4, slightly below estimates. on government's official kid sunday shows conditions stabilizing in april after rebounds in march. arabia isy that saudi working through restructuring $2 billion of debt at its fueled
unit. they started restructuring costs with lenders with the expectation that they won't be able to come up with the cash for payments. sources tell bloomberg it is the second time since the financial crisis. the company has had to restructure debt. that is mostly held by saudi banks. the g-7 energy minister said they will promote investment and energy products to ensure a steady supply of the oil price drop. the pledge comes after meeting in japan. the u.s. energy secretary told bloomberg that the oil supply glut will ease over the next 12 months. >> that is no question that we have an oversupply relative to demand, but as was discussed with the international agency energy, they made a presentation over the analysis. there is a chance that the oversupply in roughly a year. will care more from
the u.s. energy secretary later in the program. powered by over 2400 journalists in over 150 bureaus in the world. this is bloomberg news. manus: let's get up to speed. from thelis joins us touchscreen. another tough day in these ugly markets. -- in the equity markets. what are the markets making of the chinese news? david: this was one of the key areas of focus today. most markets in asia are trading for the first time at the pmi data. the economic is slightly better at the moment, up .1%. a lot of the weakness is a bit misleading just looking at this. lots of the weakness is coming through here in hong kong. have a look at these financials. insurers are actually getting
sold off at the moment. a lot of this comes out to one. if i coulding pict, find it along my big movers. this indicates shares getting sold up after aig sold their billion.$1.25 they sold a fairly hefty stake there. they reached $1.25 billion. the price the sale toward the lower end of the range. mean, that is one market story. but when you look at the regional benchmark, a lots of it has to do with the financial sector. asia is looking like this and at the moment, most stocks are on their way up. most volumes are fairly light. .5%.alia is up south korea is up and for the this group is
attempting to get out of the day-to-day slump we have seen in the saudi and asia equities. we have three days to go, but it is a flat day here in asia so far. manus: david, thank you very m uch. for thosee waiting hsbc numbers to come through. it is a busy day. we have a host of bank details to come. joining us now is the managing director of research at our capital. we are waiting for hsbc to set the tone for the globe. i went through the league tables. what can we expect for this region? >> we can suspect a financial drop in earnings, about 30% or so. we started to see cracks in the system in the third and fourth
quarters in particular. and then the numbers actually worsened. the banks have been writing off some of the deals as well. in the first quarter, the actually continued. it did continue in the fourth quarter, though at a slightly slower pace. manus: we are going to have a much more expansive conversation about the mena banks. eague table i brought up shows the dominance in the region. the are slipping a little bit this year. my question to you would be this. the japanese are coming -- actually, they are already here, >> are they? >> absolutely. when you see the banks slamming on the brakes because of seeidity concerns, you can pretty aggressive natures on the lending
side.they are very well-positioned to get more market shares. manus: we will break down those hsbc numbers with you. we will all talk about the mena bank numbers. that.ou can get more on the rest of the day's news at our brand-new digital destination. you will find a brand-new reports, in-depth market data. plus, you can watch all of the interviews. it is only available online. not toght, to cut or cut? the australian bank faces its latest rate decision. european companies want to negotiate on the end o sanctionsf in iran. that is next, along with possibly hsbc figures as well. this is "bloomberg markets:
>> you are back with "bloomberg markets: middle east." we had the lifting of sanctions in iran. a lot of the lenders don't seem to be particularly interested. , joins us now from paris. guys are not interested here in financing these deals in iran. it is a big financing problem, isn't it? >> indeed. so far, there are very few of th that are actually going to finance this contract. isthis does not change, it going to create at some point, a financial cap will be hard to fill. -- financial gap that will be
hard to fill. >> there is a risk, isn't there? some of the deal could fall apart because of a lack of funding. >> the danger there, you might say in most cases, the preliminary agreements have been signed. now the discussions for many of these deals are still ongoing. so, financing is a key part of these deals. fored, we are at a stage companies, large corporations from europe, whether it is energy, navigation, carmakers -- there is a really to find firm funding from their usual banks as soon as possible, or find alternative ways of funding. >> they are obstacles here. many european banks are very concerned about what the u.s. authorities might make of all of this. that is an impediments, isn't it
when it comes to iran? fabio: there have been very big fines against global banks in europe. ba, can remember bnp pari commerzbank, the list is long. with big banks, they don't want anywhere close to risking anyway, any sort of danger of breaching the u.s. loans. there are still some financial sanctions out there for using the dollar against some entities in iran. and so, banks are still waiting for clear guidelines from the u.s. authorities before engaging. >> thanks, fabio. manus: let's get back into the conversation now with our guest here in dubai, the managing
director of research. when we talk about mena and the whole reading. we have the numbers on the bloomberg terminal. >> the pretax profit number is coming in from hsbc. the first earning statement is coming through. the profit is $6.1 billion. we had an estimate of $4.2 billion. let's have a quick look at the tier one, capital ratio. this is the adequacy ratio at the moment. , butre looking at 12.1% what we got here was 11.9%. but is still inside the range of what they did set, which was to 12.5%.
we are also looking at these reported pretax profits. we were looking for $6.1 billion, the reported pretax profit numbers. let's get straight to haidi in hong kong. haidi? haidi: as you say, we are coming through with drips and drabs. the $1 billion pretax profit number is not as bad as what was expected. the estimated number was $4.2 billion, which would have been a plunge of 42%. we are just getting through some of these other numbers today. we are getting through the prophets the efficiency ratio. with lending at $1.6 billion. we will be waiting to see how much the bank needs to spend in order to comply with these
regulations that need to be in place by 2019. we do know the bank has estimated a $2.2 billion to comply. that first installment is expected to be announced as well. hsbc is also say now that it has seen risk-weighted assets, they are restructuring the part of reducing its global footprint and turning towards more profitable operations. we have talked at length about asia. we are expecting to see that weigh in a very negative way when it comes to the first quarter results. the first quarter was a brutal one when it comes to equity trading in asia. we are expecting to see the great bulk of that downside to come through from the investment bank and global markets division. hsbc says it is confident of by 2017.ithis the pretax profit was partly better than we expected at $6.1 billion. as the details come through, we will be looking at how much a
part asia played in the downside we see in earnings. they are continuing to expand the exposure when it comes to the chinese mainland markets. they just adopted the delta strategy a few weeks ago, when it comes to getting more into markets loans there, credit cards, and retail banking. here in hong kong, we are exciting to see quite a bit of weakness when it comes to retail banking private wealth as the slowdown in china continues to affect business and demand here in hong kong we will also be watching for trade finance numbers as well. toen that that is expected slow. ass is also slowing demand trade demand continues to really fade around the world. anhave not seen announcement when it comes to dividend, but we think this will put some downside pressure on hsbc.
we are expecting earnings to , but that has not come through yet. >> we do know hsbc be the pretax number. we were looking for fort .2 billion dollars, but we got a number of $6.1 billion. we don't know what the dividend is at the moment. they say they are confident of hitting their cost reduction target by the end of 2017 here. this is what we have at the moment. aslo, the tier one capital ratio, 11.9%. that is still in the range, but below analyst estimates. the pretax number is $6.1 billion. hsbc, paribas, they are all out. you are watching "bloomberg markets: middle east." ♪
manus: you are welcome back. it is "bloomberg markets: middle east." the theme of the first part of the show is hsbc. in turning the onset is the managing -- joining me on set is the managing director of the research capital. talk to me about the middle east. is theyis remarkable have squeezed more revenues out of their business. provisioning was very heavy in the fourth quarter for the region, particularly reflecting the oil situation. it was very light in the first quarter. many of the dubai banks were reporting pretty substantial risks in the first quarter. manus: we will keep an eye on the headlines, as they concern hsbc. the deposits have been dropping, that is one of the themes. udi actually delivered
not a bad set of results, relative to what we were expecting. >> correct. provision it is light at the moment. we think it is still early stages. government spending is down 37% in the first quarter according to our numbers. we think more pain will be felt in the remaining quarters. close downcro further, we will start to see some formation down the road. but a key solution was actually the contractors to get some papers from the government on the back of which, banks are willing to lend them money. vision 2030, has that changed your desire to include saudi banks here? jaap: we are quite cautious on the saudi banks. return oneel a
equity will be in the double digits, even with a return on stress. when you look at valuations, they are fairly valued, maybe a little bit of an upside, but not a material upside. manus: we also had the conversation about saudi today, which in cap you it's much of the pressure in the region -- which includes much of the pressure in the region. they have the biggest relationships with the saudi banks. is that the alarm bell? is that a personification of the alarm bell? jaap: there are a couple of those large exposures. even though the saudi market is the most diversified in terms of markets.e lending amrk if you compare them to other markets which are more concentrated, one single borrower can make a lot of difference. it is very binary. manus: we have got dubai and abu
dhabi, and nonperforming loans and provisions will also be a feature of 2016, whicha is what are saying.y inp: we have seen worsening the fourth quarter. the key question is whether this will migrate into the corporate sector. receivables are sometimes a multiple of the equity book. that is a big concern for us. having said that, actually the banks are rich in terms of provisions. they have been over provisioning at a tuneup 10% to 20% of their earnings. manus: always great to have you in the bloomberg. that is jaap meijer, joining us this morning from arqaam capital. a headline for hsbc, profits oft estimates with a number
nobody would have been predicting 2%. the inflation figure last week, a cat amongst the pigeons. that loan inflation is what weng that have here is a situation where there is room to cut. the recent resurgence of the australian dollar. we will have a look at what has been going on with that. and the reactions when it comes to the currency markets with regard to that. of it is, i guess some down to what we were talking about earlier, which is the credit rating of the country. triple a.is still it is a haunting clamber across the 1986 downgrade. where were you in 1986? where was i in 1986? i did not know what a downgrade was then.
the $35et will focus on billion, which is what we understand the budget is going to be. back in december, we thought it was going to be $33 billion. we have got an election coming up. for me, what stands out is the boj remaining unchanged. draghi remained unchanged. and new zealand remained unchanged and thei currencyr has rallied. let's pull up the aussi dollar, because that is a sheer drop off a cliff. and that could be what the central bank governor down there is more focused on, which is trying to put a cap on that aus si dollar. it has had a cracking good at rally. back to you. >> absolutely and just looking at this, this 1% move is exactly what stevens wants there. economy aref the doing fine.
the housing market of course, is a concern there. as we enter the bubble terrain when it comes to that, but it is a move, 25 basis points down. predicted 15 -- 15 out of 17 economists predicted no change in the cash rate. we are in sydni. -- in sydney. >> it takes a fair bit to get me off the floor, but the fact of the matter was, this is really a big shock. we were expecting a move from the central bank, but what really solved the whole decision was that we had such a weak cpi figure couple of with a surg ein the australian dollar. the central bank decided to act. what is quite strange about this central government if you like is engaged in a lock
up. it is strange to see the central bank acting almost on its own. this will be fascinating. the dollar needs to come down. that has certainly been a big part of the contention. the one point you alluded to there was the actual price being paid for assets, particularly housing assets. >> i think you are right when it comes to the currency. i think you are also right when it comes to the rest of the economy is doing all right. that housing is the great anomaly. we have got the minutes in a few weeks. >> that of course, will be a level of concern, but the one thing they have to talk about his pockets of housing, which are a concern here. we have a glut of units in one part of the economy. what people want is a three to four bedroom dwelling.
we certainly have enough of them. that has put pressure on policy makers in terms of a response that builds more dwellings. and possibly, we have to get infrastructure going in these areas, which could serve as these big cities. one example that springs to mind is the city of london. once you decide to cut rates, what you end up doing is inviting people to speculate further on existing assets. that is definitely going to be a problem in the future. >> i am just reading some of the statements coming through here as well, saying that ichina policy actions support the near-term outlook. taking at the slowdown place in china, though there have been signs of stabilization taking place there. mentioning housing, as you have been talking about the lower exchange rate we have had up until now. we have seen this move up witht to .77.e aussi dollar up
australia has been suffering exchangeng a too high rate from the past and they don't want history to repeat itself, do they, dan? dan: absolutely not. australia is on a cheap place to do business. the dollar is working toward the $.72 mark. in southeast asia you do need a large exchange rate to compete. and to come into those markets. the bottom line, you are really looking at a case where australia is for example, in new zealand as well, just bumbling along, but that is not good enough. the headwins we have seen overseas are really coming home to roost. the aussis,d
effectively, they have a $300 billion trade. this is big news for this to drop the way it has. >> record lows again. thank you. that was a great conversation between the boys on the aussi dollar. let's check on the rest of the stories making headlines across the world. reporter: a chinese tycoon who spoke out about ever tighter controls on the media has been disciplined by the communist party. propertyed developer amassed 37 million followers, which were well-known for their blunt comments. they were shut down after he criticized the president's assertion for the purpose of the media to serve the party, instead of the taxpayers within
the budget. the indian government has sent air force helicopters and 6000 workers to fight forest fires sweeping across the northern s dozenstate. -- across the northern state. two tiger reserves are under threat. this comes after two years of below average monsoon soons. the government is investigating how the fire started. a brazilian judge has ordered a 72 hour block on the messaging service for failing to turn over data in a drug trafficking investigation. this is the second time a court has shut down the facebook owned app in brazil, where it has ion users. if they fail to comply, they will be fined $140,000 each day. whatsapp released a statement saying they don't have the
information the investigators want. a minnesota court has approved a special administrator to oversee the estate of the late superstar prince. the musician died, leaving no known will. estate is nothis clear, but his property holdings are valued at $27 million. he was a songwriter and was not to have recorded thousands of unreleased pieces at his home. global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. this is bloomberg news. manus: thank you very much. and saudi arabia denies reports that it has fired workers with no pay. all of those sacked were fully compensated, they say. i am joined now. binladin says, adjusting the size of manpower is normal. i was shocked.
maybe i am just not in the right to decide the scope. 77,000 expatriates, people, potentially put out of a job. >> it is definitely a big number, but the company is saying they are adjusting to a market where we see that construction is slowing down. the entire economy is slowing down. we know the economy of saudi arabia will probably grow at 1.5% this year, the slowest since the financial crisis. a lot of the big portions of the economy were talking about have had large construction projects. >> this is the reality of a new saudi arabia, expatriates thing put out of the country. and domesticically, it is part of your story as well. >> this was surprising for us as well. there were reports out of 17,000 saudi workers, they have plans to fire about 12,000. that was reported in the local media and that is a big portion
of people. >> the other part of your story, and help me with this, is we have media images circulating on the internet about protests in mecca on their busses. these are substantiated yet. >> no, they have been reported by the media heavily. the papers went to the police stations. >> talk to me about the records. -- the recourse. part of the story is about these images of the protests, regarding these expatriates to be fired. what recourse do they have? >> they can go to the ministry areabor, and i am sure they involved. a lot of those workers, they are blue-collar workers, construction workers, who basically come from a lot of port asior asian countries. ares: very briefly, they
tied to the banks quite closely, aren't they? >> absolutely. this is a private company. we don't know much about their financing, but the big deal is the fact that this company has a lot of loans from the saudi banks. thank your, our dubai based real estate reporter. we will discuss the role the g7 has pledged to play in global energy investment. hear from the u.s. energy secretary, next on "bloomberg markets: middle east." ♪
loan charges. also, the reserve bank of australia came out surprisingly well. they had a 25 basis point cuts, with a record low for the cuts in australia. one of the things they cited was the situation with china at the moment. they support of their short-term outlook and of course that fed into what we have seen today out of the rba. we have seen signs of stability, signs of weakness. we have ubs coming out. manus is all over this one. ubs? manus: thank you very much. yes, let's get into the numbers in terms of ubs. money is coming into the bank in the first quarter and america and they are taking additional responsibility to cut costs. this is what drives the heart of , $15.5 billion came in with
a net income of 7.7 million swiss francs. wealth management, pretax profits. that is the wealth management number there in terms of that. they are taking responsibility for cost cuts. this is the big piece of news. the investment bank, pretax profit there up 253 million swiss francs. so, it is a myth on the net income numbers. the estimate was for 735 million swiss francs. the pretax profit was 178 million swiss francs. the wealth management pretax profit was expected to have a 20% drop. if you are a customer, the conversation is there on your top live, in terms of the rates. ubs says low rates and a strong
franc continue to present headwins. -- headwinds. back to you. >> rba cutting. the ubs, as the trifecta of bank earnings. we hadof that earlier, the index showing some signs of stability and some signs of weakness. a good reminder. we kept on saying the chinese economy has stabilized, and for the most part it has, that we have seen pockets of weakness, which is the headline right now. the survey of the private sector manufacturers in china, as opposed to the official pmi, which is the state-owned enterprises. it tends to be more bearish. they are a underrepresented >> part of the economy. >> down from the previous month? it is still below
50. it is the 40th consecutive month below 50, meaning pessimism outweighs optimism. the survey was for 49.8. new orders and also output declining from march. so, there are pockets of weakness. the official numbers -- two perhaps change the direction of the talk to her stimulus went and where easing went. do these numbers do that as well? >> i don't think so. i think the consensus is, if they will be anymore easing after six rate cuts, it probably will not happen from the pboc until the fourth quarter. keep in mind as well, 49.4 is a miss for this pmi, but it is much better than september, where it was 47.2. and a year ago, it was around 48. it is better. rba looks to china and said the position riff armed
their short-term look as well. right, let's take a look at g7, wrapping up the meeting in dubai. a downturn when it comes to oil markets. earlier on i spoke to the u.s. energy sector dr. ernest moniz and asked what is being done to address the issue of supply and demand. >> we certainly do believe in market forces. we believe that the private sector in the end will make the best decision. so, that will govern how prices evolve. certainly right now in the oil markets, there is no question that we continue to have an oversupply relative to demand. and inwas discussed i fact, the international energy agency made a presentation of their analysis. there is a chance of the oversupply will work out of the system and roughly a year. we still have a large inventory, but those remain the basics of the oil market.
and we think again, the market of the priceice allocations. >> one of the reasons we have seen the oil price fall, you mentioned the glut taking place. and this talk about freezing production. the decision was to denigrate the u.s. shale oil production. how badly hit has shale been by this downturn in oil prices? >> well, there is no question that there were impacts, as they were in all forms of oil and gas production. in terms of the companies have cut back on capital investments, typically 20% to .5%. in the united states, the drilling recount is very low. what the reality is, we were up in oil production by over 4 million barrels per day. that has gone down a bit. now, natural gas production, we envision continuing to go up as
productivity increases. so, certainly, the markets f ollow the price signals. oil andhistoric and the gas business, but i think the fundamentals are again, such that the supply-demand imbalance looks like it will work itself out, barring surprises over the next year. >> secretary, how has iran's entry into the international community affected the oil market in your view? and how will it? >> well, iran has certainly added something like 300,000 barrels per day, is my understanding, since the agreement was put into effect . that obviously, has contributed the roughly 1.5 million barrels imbalance. it is coming down, but as new entries come in like iran --
iran certainly suggests that it is going toa add another half million there'll spurred a. day.lf million barrels per we all hope that the world economy picks up at a faster pace and that is likely also to increase demand and address this current in balance. -- imbalance. we will of course, we still will be left with a large inventory. that will be worked down over time. >> that was the energy o sector. more on ubs' latest numbers. that is up next. ♪
manus: welcome back to "bloomberg markets: middle east ." the breaking news in the past 10 minutes is about ubs. protect profit of court, drops. the net income came at at 707 million swiss francs. that was down below the estimates of 735 million. , if you go to top live your able to get everything. is undernagement pressure. they can still see money flow into the banks, which is one of the critical point here. impaired to last year, you are saying a pretty substantial drop, a 64% drop. all divisions missed their numbers. what management, 567 swiss francs. the investment bank, 253 million swiss francs. new money, 255 million swiss francs. those of the breaking numbers. let me get straight to london
now. nnaare joined by a edwards. what is on the radar for you? anna: we will keep an eye on ubs. it is interesting to see them talking about being on track to deliver cost reductions by june. as we know, we are watching the banking seen. we've got commerc commerzbank reporting. that is one of these top stories this season, it has been about the banks' ability to tackle a difficult trading environment. they are tackling that by taking money out of the cost line. that is something we will keep focusing on with regards to these numbers. many banks are talking about keeping an eye on the ship financing side of the business. the ceo of commerzbank noted that matching last year's profit will be tougher given the slow start to the year in the difficult start to the year, is
certainly something ubs is citing this morning. we will see what impact this had bnp paribas.nk and storiesg restructuring are all over europe. there is a lot to watch about the banks this morning. draghi is fighting back in the face of all of those political critics. we will talk about that in the program as well. manus: it is a different story for you with the hsbc numbers. than just be see is better expected, but were some last year, $6.1 billion with pretax profits. we are also getting bnp paribas 8 billion1. dollars. rba surprised everybody with that rate cut, sending the aussi
it is a tough first quarter for ubs sing its top line fall while bnp paribas says that they are showing resilience but it has been a challenging quarter. >> there was a particularly unfavorable market environment at the start of the year. anna: the central bank unexpectedly cuts rates and the inflation outlook. draghi drama. the ecb