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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  May 3, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EDT

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close of bloomberg markets. >> we are going to take you from new york to london to measure it in the next hour. here is what we're watching today. areencies around the globe having another wild day as central moves continue to have an impact on the dollar, the yen, and now the aussie dollar is in focus. we will break down all of the movement in this market. >> after the bank missed earnings forecast, the ceo warning of paralyzing volatility impacting the markets. our other european banks in the same boat? >> it is one of the biggest upsets in sports ever. the first premier league title. how does a team get to the top spot, and how much money will this upset make when all is said
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and done? >> it is 90 minutes into the trading session. we want to head to the markets desk where julie hyman has a look at this continuing selloff in the markets. >> worsening sellouts, at that. also, we are seeing it on higher volumes and we saw yesterday when stocks were higher. in the s&png volume 500, about 18% about the 20 day average. it is not something we want to see on a heavy selling day that is happening on relatively high-volume. a lot of growth concerns in the market. jpmorgan recommending clients globally underway equities in favor of credit. merrill lynch out with a note this morning saying it is seeing client outflows, clients selling for the past 14 consecutive weeks. a lot of negative sentiment this morning as all three major averages pullback by 1%. let's look at the imap to see what exactly is on the move. energy shares remain the worst
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performer followed by energy. coincidentally, remember, these are the two industries that are taking the most often earnings for the s&p 500 for the last quarter. experiencing pain. it is a broad selloff we are seeing. looking at some examples of where the selling is concentrated, we are watching service -- oil service companies this morning. we are getting more information on halliburton and baker hughes after the canceled acquisition here. halliburton coming out with its first-quarter loss that widened. in company had higher costs the first quarter related to the canceled acquisition or the bid, generally. also, baker hughes coming out and saying it is going to be trimming back to two basins as the center of his activity. really, following on the heels a lot of competitors saying they will be trimming costs generally. in the hospital injury -- industry, hca with its revisions for bad debt led the stock to fall. community health systems, similar.
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tenant health care coming out with earnings that beat estimates. it is seeing shares higher. there is a deal to mention in the health care industry. they are going to buy quintile transnational holdings, and all stock transaction. the equity value is $9 billion. interestingly, both of those stocks are trading lower area they are not getting a lift from the deal. betty: thinking about lower, apple is hitting multi-here records here. >> apple we were watching closely because it was having its longest streak of selloffs it had seen going back to 1998. if you go back to april 20, we have seen this slump of 12%. today, the stock is very slightly higher. it is breaking that losing streak. if you look at the bloomberg, i have looked at market cap, apple's market cap over this period of time. here is the year to date market cap. if you did from april 20 decline we have seen, it has not $81 million off its market cap in that period of time geared the
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highs from the year, it is more than $100 billion erased from the market cap. this has been quite a losing streak indeed for apple. it looks like a good and today. test it looks like it could today. we're down by 1.6% every industry group is trading lower. the three-day drop is the biggest in three months since the day of earnings. among the vfw, delete -- the luxury carmaker, shares are down by 3.7% today. first-quarter profits fell narrowly missing estimates. what it is doing is investing in new technologies like self driving cars to defend itself from the likes of mercedes and tesla. that is where the mounting competition is coming from. growth slowing because of its aging lineup. shares down by 3.7%. lufthansa, europe's third-biggest airline, passenger fares set to a road.
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-- it is grappling with you -- unions over the structuring of its european operations. they are to stem the flow of customers to discount rivals, extending sure is down by 5.7% in yields which is a measure that reflects average ticket prices. the biggest drop in four years in the first quarter, airline revenue declined almost 4%. its third-quarter loss narrowed thanks to lower fuel prices. finishing off with philips. what it is going to do, and we saw this coming, it is going to lift its lighting division after searching for a fire for the past half year. that obviously didn't bear fruit. what it is going to do is sell 25% of the shares to amsterdam. it will sell the remaining shares in coming years. what the ceo is doing, he is shifting away from the lighting. this is a company that started in lighting in the 19th century. he is focusing on the global health care market. he has equipment that allows
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hospitals to analyze clinical data. and patients to monitor health and attrition. on the smartphones, as well. shares are down by 2%. just as the bloomberg terminal changes without me even touching it, there are gremlins in the house. >> you and your touchscreen. let's check in on bloomberg first word news. taylor riggs has won a newsroom. >> it is all about politics today. j cruz says today's indiana primary is the one thing that stands between him and plunging over the cliff. if he loses, donald trump would all but be unstoppable in the race for the republican nomination. victory could regenerate chances for a contested convention bureau the latest poll had trouble with a double-digit lead. meanwhile on the democratic side, the race is much closer in indiana. hillary clinton has a commanding lead over bernie sanders and the number of delegates. russia says there could be a c -- cease-fire within hours
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of the city of aleppo. in the last two weeks, syrian rebels and forces loyal to a solid have traded rockets and bombs across aleppo. hundreds of civilians have been killed. russia's foreign minister discussed a truce today with the un's special envoy for syria. been. servicemen has killed in fighting with islamic state in iraq. defense secretary ash carter made the announcement will traveling in germany. the serviceman was killed when the islamic state attacked kurdish positions in northern iraq. in much wider news, the megahit musical hamilton has grabbed a record-breaking 16 oh nominations. the hip-hop about the u.s. .reasury secretary hamilton was nominated in virtually every category it could compete in from acting to scenic design. the award will be handed out june 12.
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global news 24 hours a day powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i'm taylor riggs. coming up on the next half-hour of the european close, could spain beat punished for missing its deficit target? more to madrid on the country's political deadlock. several big firms report earnings. ubs,ll break down hsbc, and commerce bank it has been a wild 24 hours for leicester city fans as the team won its first ever english premier league 5000 to how much will this boost the teams earnings? >> they are celebrating their. over here in the u.s., not a lot of celebration. you can see we are continuing this selloff. dow energy schiller's, financial, tech all getting hit
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this morning.
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mark: live from london and new york, i am mark barton in london. >> i am betty liu in new york. this is the european close. it is time for the bloomberg business flash, a look at the biggest business stories in the news right now. for the most part, it was bullish mount -- bullish month for automakers in the u.s.. they all posted sales increases in april. chrysler is reporting monthly sales gains for more than six years in a row. gm sales were more down -- down more than expected.
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a are facing a low profit sales to rental car companies. american insurance group aig got burned by hedge funds in the first quarter. now, it is backing off. hedge funds led to $183 million loss. the company's third straight unprofitable quarter. aig is now asking to redeem more than $4 billion of its holdings in hedge funds. it plans to bet on highly rated bonds and property lending. musk the company, solar city, is selling a revenue stream from rooftop solar leases to john bangkok financial. the solar energy company plans to raise $227 million. to retain ownership of the rooftop systems, musk is the chairman of the company. that is your bloomberg business flash for this hour. australian dollars but today after the central bank cut interest rates to a surprising record low. australia trying to ward off inflation and sluggish growth. the economy is transitioning from the largest mining
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investment boom in its history. evidence of limp economic growth around the world is permeating through global markets. ite to help us make sense of all, simon smith, f x pro research director. hello, simon. this is rw crs function. which you know will -- well which of course shows the aussie dollar. it has fallen. all of these currencies are rising against the aussie dollar today. only the rand is falling which led me to think it is quite rare for a central bank to be able to weaken its currency when it loosens policy. that goes against the recent trend, doesn't it? what's is certainly does. as the central banks get into ever more unconventional and less sensible policies. the reaction on the currencies is naturally different than a lot of people in the u.s., eurozone, and u.k.. i can't remember the last time they saw central bank cut rates to what was a positive level. it wasn't fully expected.
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there had been the seeds for easier policy, certainly inflation numbers we saw last week. i think the housing market have been held there. that is doing pretty well. there are some softening in prices. the last straw that went, the >> one central bank the loosens policy and you might get a little bit of a fall in its currency, but it seems to start rising again is the yen. after the doj failed to a stimulus, we saw a massive two-day rally in the yen. are we near intervention levels? we had more global intervention by kuroda and frankfurt yesterday. are we close to actual intervention? >> what to the markets do? i think it is -- yes. in terms of what he did in the end of juran -- january. currency depreciates. that he does nothing, you see a huge rally. the issue with the yen, it is
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fundamentally undervalued. one intervention works is when you are pushing, you are going with an underlying trend. when you are pushing against what is a structurally weak currency, that is what makes it harder. i want to move things back to what is going on with the greenback. with the dollar. this quizzical softening that we have seen in the dollar despite all of this talk about a rates tightening cycle. a great piece on bloomberg view. i want to read part of the two-year where he said interest differentials can move their effectiveness in driving exchange rates. even if this were not the case, the hope for impact on growth would be defeated by the more pervasive problem of insufficient structural growth engines, aggregate demand efficiency, alarming and equality, and pockets of
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excessive indebtedness. anyone tried to bet on currency based on the interest rate differentials around the world are going to be sorely losing. is that right? is the you are seeing way things you think things worked in the early part of the cycle. a central bank is easing by whatever means, in the u.s., it was by mortgage bonds. the impact on the currency was clear to see. when you got to the zero lower that you got through in some instance, the impact on the currency is so different. we are getting that in dollar and euro. japan is the extreme of that. the currency forecast, the yen has been one of the hardest to forecast. they seemed to get it right this year. the past two years have been very hard. you can look at it in one sense. i think it is getting harder and the bigger picture the way currency dynamics work and are
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changing. interest rates still matter, the one they are down here, -- when they are down here, they are being used to a strong degree. -- betty: is there a sense interest rates match for a certain currency less so for the dollar? >> it still matters. the u.s. two-year in the last two or three sessions, it has been playing a part in the moves we have been seeing. with the dollar, you still have positive policy rate. the eurozone, you don't. in other senses, you're getting negative rates via the interaction of the deposit rate. this is the complication, the thing we get excited now when i central banker could -- potentially move 25 basis points. we are so far off. think back to the picture when the fed was hiking every meeting during the middle the last decade. mark: let's talk manufacturing
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data showing a contraction. the first time since 2013 in the u.k. is that referendum nervousness or are there other factors? >> we have already seen a slowing down in the economy. there was potentially summer french -- referendum on ease. -- unease. what are you going to do? delay spending plans until the picture becomes clear after june the 23rd. you could be playing within their. it is interesting to see, that is generally the first indicator of the month. we see that reflected another data, i think it could potentially collaborate that. betty: where are you going to place the best bets? where the places where lizzie
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muska -- certainty in the currency markets? .> i still fancy the end the moves we have seen in the last two or three sessions -- i think the yen still has further traction to go. i don't think you can start worrying about more effective intervention until you get to that 100 level. kiwianadian dollar and the on the other side, i like to be nervous or once australia has gone overnight. certainly, the potential for ray .ites -- rate hikes the canadian dollar has had such a stunning run since the start of the year. with very little correction there. i think the canadian is looking a bit vulnerable in this environment on the policy story. smith of fx pro. much more ahead on bloomberg television. spanish political deadlock triggering a repeat election as forming ane for
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majority coalition is missed. we will go to mature it next. as we go to break, here are some of the top stories on
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mark: you are watching bloomberg markets. i am mark barton in london. betty: i am betty liu in new york. this is the european close. mark: spain's king phil ebay has called for elections on june 26 to break a political stalemate. the prime minister -- it ended in a deadlock in december. parliament is now the most fragmented in history and it has not been able to agree on a coalition government. joining us now, been from the jury.
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who is to say the election in june won't produce another deadlock? a it probably will produce result which is very similar to what we saw in december. the polls suggest the people's party is likely to be, have the most see and yet be a long way from a majority. that is going to throw the emphasis on the party to negotiate some kind of governing majority. there is no reason to say it will be any easier than it has proved this time around. we could be in for an extended period of uncertainty. since the december election, that doesn't seem to have dented the economy which jumped .8% in the last quarter. maybe no government is a good thing? >> i am not sure we would go that far, but the economy has been barreling along by
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comparison with the rest of the eurozone. that said, this remains a troubled economy. one employment is 20%, youth unemployment is 45%. continueng to need to to be growing at those sorts of paces for a number of years before we can put a dent in those sorts of unemployment figures. the good thing is that perhaps the economic situation means the political class actually does have a bit of time, a bit of space to try to forge a new consensus of how to take the country forward. betty: that is incredible. 45% unemployment among the young people, among the youth. what do the voters think? what are we going to hear? how will they vote when they had back to the polls? >> they are pretty divided. the young voters have been drawn to two new parties. polly most -- and anti-a sturdy group and a classic liberal formation.
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going to bessues is to what extent can those two new groups hang on to their supporters and to what extent can the established parties principally? be --that spain needs to voters need to move back to the party that they know. >> the end of june is looking shaky for geopolitical events because the election comes three days after the u.k. referendum. is going to be a busy week for us on the european politics team. two days after the spanish election, the european leaders gather for a summit in brussels where they will be working out what to do. after a busy week of voting. turbulence possibly ahead for the markets and for the political parties. mark: thank you for joining us. then, our bloomberg reporter
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imagery. coming up next, take a look at how european equities are finishing the tuesday session today. it looks like they will finish lower. third day of decline. the stocks euro 600 is down by 1.5%. every industry is going. it is an earnings induced selloff today. the likes of the banking industry, the auto industry are being pushed lower by some of that bigger constituents to have released earnings. that is the evidence. auto 2% lower. banks down by 3.5%. energy stocks, 2.7% lower. basic resources, the biggest decline, 6.5% down. the european close is three and a half minutes away. stay with us.
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♪ mark: live from london and new york, you're watching the european close. i am are part and with betty liu. stocks finish the day in
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european trading. let's take you through all of the market action. a third day of declined. selloff.ngs induced the stoxx 600 down by 1.6%. the three-day decline, the biggest since may the ninth. since reaching a high on april the 20th. almost 2016 the index job by 4%. what a busy day for the banking industry. ubs, first-quarter profit falling greater than estimated, 64%. market turbulence a running earnings at the world's water management securities unit. this is an intraday chart. hsbc propping in the first quarter, rising more than estimated. the chief executive paring back costs. hsbc down 1.4 percent. bnp, france's biggest bank posting a surprise increase in first-quarter profits. a decline in provisions for bad loans helping offset a slump in trading revenue. bmp was higher.
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looks like it will finish the day down by three quarters of 1%. last but not least, it almost was last, the bottom of the pile on the bloomberg banks index, the stoxx 600 bank index, 9% lower today. earlier, falling as much as 9.8%. the most since 2011. germany's second-biggest lender, first quarter profit harping market turmoil once again causing a drop in revenue. that is the bank. this is aberdeen asset management today. the scottish firm reporting a further 7.6 billion pounds of net outflows in the first three months of 2016. climbs continue to withdraw money from equities and fixed income. it has been suffering from two years of outflows including at least $13 billion in sovereign wealth assets. 7.5% lower today. just finishing with the u.k. manufacturing industry which is contracting.
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we had pmi data today. the red dotted line is 50. the last three years, manufacturing has not been below 50. we are contracting. it will heighten concerns about the impact of the eu referendum on june the 23rd. markets, manufacturing output falling at a quarter the pace of 1%. it estimates 20,000 jobs were lost in the industry over the past three months. in theething you see u.k. manufacturing industry and the last three years, below 50, betty. let's talk aig. a wonderful interview with the chief executive. betty: incredible. when we your -- when you were talking about financials earlier, aig, one of the biggest insurance companies, that stock is dropping but it is coming off of its low of the session. we did speak with the ceo of aig, peter hancock, because it was a third quarter for the insurance giant. he spoke about one area that they are exiting. hedge funds have not done well
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for the company. this is what he said. about halfnotice to of the hedge funds at the end of last year that we wanted to exit. over the course of this year, we will be exiting as the lockup period. 's expire. >> as activists like carl icahn and john paulson are on aig, is shrieking the company, going out of unprofitable bridges -- businesses, hedge funds being one of them. meantime in the u.s., the markets are still retreating. we are making new lows here. the dow down to under 10 points. the s&p lowered by 1.2%. tech shares getting hit. bloomberg's abigail doolittle has more live from the nasdaq. we are looking at a selloff of the nasdaq. the index is down more than 1%. below is down 1.4%. the index is now down eight out of the last nine days. a multi-daylar to losing streak in the beginning of january.
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also semi-, big tech and biotech dragging some of the worst drugs including microsoft, amazon, cisco, and gilead. a lot of stocks, big names down more than 1% and a lack of real news. this could signal some sort of shift in sentiment from investors. on the weakness, the nasdaq below its 50 day moving average suggesting there could be more of a bearish move ahead and perhaps, a led lower and a period of risk off for the nasdaq. betty: talk about apple. you can't talk about the nasdaq without talking about the influence of apple. abigail: you're right about that. it is the biggest member. about 7%. apple, why -- while higher today, is down eight out of the last nine days as well, down more than 10% going into and out of the company's disappointing first-quarter report german by -- given by week iphone sales. apple has given around, it's use
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of shifted on iphone. we could see another shift today. the stock is as high as i mentioned. perhaps as david einhorn said on a conference call, greenlight capital continues to hold apple, that he sees value in the brand plus, we have's journey saying there could -- there could be a potential inflection point for revenue. whether apple continues to hold its recent lows or whether or not the stock goes lower could hold the answer as to whether the nasdaq will do something similar. betty: abigail doolittle. let's check in on bloomberg first word news this hour. taylor raikes has wanting his room. taylor: the european commission has cut its inflation forecast and what is lower than predicted growth. inflation is expected to average .2%, below the ecb target. meanwhile, gdp in the eurozone is expected to increase by 1.6% this year. up -- one percentage point below february forecast. the czech republic's defense
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minister says the u.s. has it right. european members of nato are not spending enough money on defense . check officials say europe as an inability to combat some of the reasons top security threats such as russia and islamic state terrorism. in turkey, debate turned into battle in the parliament. a fight broke out when lawmakers took action that could lead to dozens of their colleagues going on trial. a committee agreed to with the immunity of legislators from a pro-kurdish party on charges of supporting an armed kurdish minute -- militant group. the helicopter crashed in norway is raising questions on whether oil industry cost cuts are a threat to safety. last week's crash killed 13 people on their way back from an offshore platform. norway's biggest oil union calls the accident a wake-up call. accidente first fatal in norway's oil industry since 1997. global news 24 hours a day powered by 2400 journalists in
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one 100 50 news bureaus around the world, i'm to the raikes. >> thank you. theas, as we saw -- be in area bond, hsbc reported profits of that beat estimates with the opposite for ubs and commerce bank. today's shares are dropping the most in three months after profit was hurt. shares of commerzbank also dropping the most in over three years after first quarter profits slumped with the german bank. record low interest rates squeezing margins and revenue. here is the cfo commerzbank along with the cfo of ubs and the cia fo on the european banking environment. >> we had a very difficult first quarter. the negative interest rate environment. nevertheless, we have a strong capital ratio. we have low risk profile. that means the market reaction will ease out. >> potentially, you see a lot of
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factors that may affect market sentiment. in that sense, you see volatility. it is not the kind of volatility that translate into client activity. it is a paralyzing volatility. >> we saw lower client flows because there were concerns with our clients about the global growth. there were concerns about the regulatory treatment of some subordinated debt. there were also uncertainties about monetary policies. joining us now, michael moore believes the bloomberg finance team. let's rattle through them one by one. ubs is freaking its investment banking operation to focus on wealth management. strategy, at least in this quarter, doesn't seem to be bearing fruit. >> they got hit on both sides. the investment bank, which has been shrieking, had its worst start to a year since 2009. the wealth management, which everyone thinks of as very stable business showed that it also is subject to that market volatility.
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the revenue debt -- there was down more than 20%. while that is more stable than trading, it is not exactly what you think. mark: what is of concern is that clients are avoiding risks and that is unlikely to be resolved in the for seeable future. that is something that all banks will be worried about, isn't it? >> that is what we have heard consistently from all of the banks. whether the u.s. or europe. deutsche bank talk trading been done for the year, with such a tough start to the year, it puts you on the back foot. >> is this the start of where we will start to see the impact, the big impact of these negative interest rates and record low interest rates on european banks? that was the surprising thing for investors. these banks are across so many businesses. you sell revenue declines, whether it was on the retail side or the corporate side or investment bank. everything was down.
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a number of factors, volatility that mark talked about, but also, negative interest rates. that is why i think you saw cautious outlooks from the banking executives. some of these factors are going away anytime soon. >> what might we expect in the next few quarters? are we talking restructuring? sales of assets? what are we talking about? >> what you heard today was a lot of -- we have laid out the plan and we are going to follow through on it. a couple of bank executives warned we are not going to do anything drastic. we have already laid out these cost-cutting plans and we are halfway through their most of the banks are in that position. have more room to run on things they have already laid out. if you had a couple more quarters like this in a tough environment, the pressure would start to wrap up to go even beyond those targets and cut even deeper.
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in thiss doing best really difficult environment? i just looked at our earnings analysis function. roughly, 11 banks have been, 11 banks have missed among the european banks. who is doing best and how? not literally, specifically, what type and model is working right now? >> that is the interesting thing for investors. it is hard to find a specific theme that is doing well. you have a one-off situation. the investment banks top-down estimates and a couple of them have surprised. others have really struggled in this environment. even among retail banks, bnp today talking about italian credit got better. they surprised. there hasn't been a consistent theme that has driven one type of bank better than the others. mark: thank you for joining us. it has been a busy couple of
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weeks to michael leads the u.k. finance team for bloomberg news. still ahead on the european close, leicester city making history. we will speak with political analysts next about the business impact of leicester's premier league title, one in 5000 to one odds.
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betty: live from new york and london, i am betty liu. mark: i am mark barton. you are watching the european close. bloomberg business flash, a look at the biggest business stories in the news right now. a surprise below to the british economy.
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for the first time in three years, manufacturing and the u.k. shrank last month, according to the firm market economics. they estimate 20,000 british factory jobs were lost in these last three months. first quarter profits fell at bmw while the biggest maker of luxury vehicles, bmw has been investing in new technologies like self driving electric cars. the company hopes that could eventually replace the seven series sedan as its flagship model. that is the latest bloomberg business flash. it is a fairytale story. leicester city, who last died, secure the unlikely english premier titles. it is one of the greatest shocks in history. some makers put the odds of 5000 to one of the big -- beginning of the season. how big of an upset was leicester seizing the title? what is the main for bookies on the longest odds? we are joined by alex donohoe. alex, thanks for joining us.
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5000 to one, you are offering those odds. how many people put money on those odds? how much money did you have to pay out? ago, 47like a long time people, 47 customers to those odds 5000 to one. 25 of them cashed out and took her the settlements on the bets when it look like they were in with the title per last night, before the important game, there were 22 people clinging onto tickets. the biggest cash out, there was a guy with 50 pounds on. he would have one 250,000 pounds. that helps us out a little bit. another guy put 20 on. he would've gotten a 100 grand. he came out with 29 grant. it is not as much as it would have been. betty: i love all of the odds and how to describe them. the odds of finding elvis presley alive, 2002 1. the odds of finding the law
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class -- loch ness monster, 500 to one. this is even more possible than that. is this going to change bedding forever? is this a game changer? >> absolutely. this is a game changer in so much as -- i saw a memo, the books on the directors of football,t least for we need to reevaluate the way we look at the pricing strategies for these long shots which, admittedly, if we our numbers right, won't give us much of a problem often. when they do, we need to mitigate the impact. it is incredible that all the -- at the office, we have had the discussion of leicester sisi -- leicester city. as you rightly pointed out, in august, if you come to me, i would've said elvis priors -- pursley is more likely to be found alive. if you would've said justin bieber is the next president, i would've said that is more likely.
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this is unprecedented and it is hard for us to get our head around, especially the impact. what about preseason betting? will this increase that amount of business because this was such a game changer, this was such a black swan event? >> we have spoken about how it is a game changer for the worst. look at how it is a game changer for the better p are we have crunched the numbers and we think it could be up to 50 times as much interest on betting on longshots, winning weeks, winning cups. if that 3 million pounds which is the payout is the investment to secure that much pay -- turner going forward, any long-term, it is good for business and hopefully, people will be heading these longshots were shorter odds. from thek at it long-term, this story has to be good for business. we can see people already today coming to back their teams for the premier league next season. mark: the figures already are astonishing. just being part of the premier league with the new tv deal in place next season which,
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internationally and domestic -- domestically is worth a billion pounds, that assured out among the 20 teams already. it is going to be part of the champions league. odds of winning the champions league. it is not impossible. >> exactly. there are is 100 to one to win the champions league. 25 to one to win the -- it is really interesting. are you placing your bed? mark: i'm a manchester united fan. i feel a disloyalty if i bet for leicester. 25 for one is not bad for the reigning champion. >> people have been backing out at 25 to one. where we become coldhearted. reigningying the champions are more likely to be relegated next season and retain the title. >> is this the biggest shock ever in sports? >> without a shadow of a doubt we have been taking bets were -- four 130 years. we have never seen anything like
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it. you can draw comparisons with the lack yachts, but we have never seen 5000-1 winners. it is a genuine black swan event. >> how do they do it? many people saying the bankunited, the chelsea's, the mass city's head that seasons. how did they consistently, over a season of almost 38 games managed to come out on top when a year ago, they were close to relegation? >> a goes back to a season. to avoid relegation last season, they finish the end of the season particularly well. the team spirit they had, they kept it going. they said let's keep winning the next game, the next game. you look at the likes of manchester city who, one player costs more than the entire city team, a team of rejects, formerly amateur players, that spirit, that togetherness, that hunger they have which turned out money can't buy, that was maintained week in week out. people were looking saying they will have their bad run. they will fall off. they kept defying the odds. in hindsight, we wrote them off
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expecting them to get a run of bad luck -- bad luck and the never happened. easy to think we can find a way of explaining this in rationalizing it, but you can't. 5000 21 is the biggest upset in history. sometimes, we are at a loss for words and we try to describe it. >> biggest shock in sports history sums it all up here it well done, leicester. coming up in battle of the charts, another battle. a different type of battle. we welcome the newcomer. what are the odds of danny berger coming out on top today? that is the big bet. ♪
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♪ betty: it is time for our global battle of the charts. we take a look at some of the most telling chart of the day. what they mean for investors. you can access these charts on the bloomberg by running the function feature at the bottom of your screen. what are the odds?
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bloomberg stocks report of danny berger is here to do battle with mark martin. we don't want to be to present to us, but i would say odds are looking good. >> today, we are looking at something that is a little bit counterintuitive. with all of the uncertainty in the market today, you might be thinking you want to put your money in a low volatility etf. we have a look at one of those right here. it is in the purple. on top of it is the smp spider etf. this line is tracking the 30 day historic volatility. again, you are putting your money here. youave is february 11 low might be tempted to say, i'm going to put my money in a fund that doesn't move too much. look what happens as a gets more popular. this blue line is tracking minas as a -- net asset value. we reach a peak. over here, we see the low value volatility etf gets more volatile -- volatile than the
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s&p 500. investors get more than they bargained for when they are putting this money into one of the most popular style strategies. grew fromvolatility february, you are saying people started selling out? >> what happens is this mess asset value, the background one is basically the popularity of the etf. these two lines are tracking the volatility. this switch at the end shows volatility getting more volatile. betty: how about you, mark? sterling has clawed back all of its losses were the year. the pound is the comeback kid. since the february lows, the 2009 lows, sterling has reversed 6% of losses. it is because of rate expectations coming back in the united states. concerns about a brexit are receding. expectations of volatility have come down from the highest in six years.
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risk reversal data has come back from elevated levels at the beginning of last month. the comeback kid, which is sterling, will she win battle of the charts? or will they find elvis? betty: or the loch ness mark -- monster. i don't know. we can tell. today, i will be very superficial. it is danny's first time here. i think that in order for her to want to come back on, i am to give her the wind today. >> thank you, betty. mark: we need to pay them to battle against me. betty: we need them to come back on. we will be back.
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>> it is noon in new york and midnight in hong kong. welcome to bloomberg markets. ♪
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alix: here's what we're watching at this hour. stocks are sinking today will while the dollar trades near multi-month -- multi-month lows near the euro. economic growth rattling markets around the world. the lones may be bright spot in today's trading action. automakers saying the industry is on pace for the best april ever as americans continue to buy new cars at record levels. plus, insurance giant aig reports third straight loss on hedge funds. the chief executive peter hancock says the company is back on track. we have some breaking news for you. isen pao


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