tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg May 5, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT
♪ we are at world headquarters in new york. here is what we are watching at this hour. stocks are in the red giving of gains. but the expectation of tomorrow's jobs report is w eighing with weakness. clemens miles of ubs gives his perspective'. ferro calling an offer opportunistic. we are one hour from the close of trading. julie hyman has a latest. julie: we might be three in a row down. that is what we could be looking at today. we have stocks little changed here. but they opened up higher and then gave up those gains.
so this would be a three-day streak, the worst losing streak, the longest losing streak going back to early february. if you look at the s&p 500, you can see that your directory threat the course of the day, where they opened up higher and then went lower as the day went on. kind of made an attempt to recovery but couldn't quite make it there. we've got a lot of different sentiment indicators that are still negative on stocks as we close out earnings season. look at some of the biggest drives on the s&p 500 at the moment. there is a mix of earnings and not in apple, for example, falling for the 10th session in the past 11. this mammoth earnings losing streak that the stock has been on. it is still training near a record high, but hasn't been able to get there. merck coming out with sales and missed estimates. and l brands reporting pulmonary profits below analyst estimates.
on the plus side, we do have some winners to talk about. those stocks that are supporting index point wise. craft times saw not only an improvement from cutting costs, kraft h saw note only an improvement from cutting costs, but an increaseins in sales. vonnie: in fact, the index level, the s&p is about to give up all its 2016 gains. julie: it is getting very close to those levels. if you look at those averages and what we have seen thus far, the s&p is only up .2%. indeed, if we continue this losing streak am i free lose seasoneam after earnings really draws to a close, you will see that go negative. the nasdaq has been going more deeply negative for the year to date.
i mentioned that a lot of these negative sentiment indicators -- even though this one has come down to some extent after the recent rally in stocks, it is still near bull market highs. that is one of the indicators we have been watching to show, despite the recent recovery in stocks, a lot of investors think that it is probably not going to last. vonnie: we will be speaking to one in a few moments. inc. you. -- thank you. let's it ahead to the headlines. fro.crumpton has more clinton isary fund.ng a new stop trump the campaign is sending free stickers to the sedona to the fund, which will also raise money for mrs. clinton's primary campaign against bernie sanders. paid for his run
through the republican primaries, but he will not sell fund his generally -- saw fund -- self his generalfund campaign. named his fund-raising chief. the u.s. justice department has told north carolina its new law is illegal. officials gave north carolina until next week to confirm they won't implement the law. in canada, alberta is under a state of emergency. the declaration comes as crews held back winwood wildfires that has torched 1600 homes in fort mcmurray. officials say there are 49 wildfires burning, several out of control. more than 80,000 residents of
fort murray have been forced to flee. no injuries or fire-related fatalities have been reported. vonnie: mark, thanks. stocks are getting back -- getting back to gains from earlier. look at the dollar spot index. the dollars off its lows level of the year. peter, we are midway through q2 at the moment. they didn't look like we would be here at this point of the year. are you surprised? peter: yes, and no. we were down 15%, we were surprised at how quickly we moved lower. we have been a bit surprised at
how quickly we have moved higher. we did expect something of a bounce off those january-february lows. but it did surprise us as we rallied very strongly through 2000 on the s&p, for example. now, we are once again quite cautious. but we have been probably for four or five weeks. so we are a bit early on our caution. vonnie: his assault predicated on what the dollar does and what the federal reserve will do for the rest of the year? peter: one of the crucial elements of the rally, the u.s. markets, the shortly cyclical havers that commodity as part of their dna, the dollar something we did not foresee. the doctor -- in the dollar weakened, those companies got a real boost, and far beyond what we thought was short covering into what was shocked to the strength to the dollar, and
perhaps weakness to the dollar would help them in the fundamentals as well. vonnie: what do you do when you see it happens? how do you change or strategy going forward? were veryknew that we oversold at the january, late january/early figure a lows. again, -- early february lows. were sortzed that we of offsides on the dollar. we realized that we needed to rethink the extent of the rally, which we did and we sort of muted our call a bit. vonnie: u.s. equities obviously one area. how much do you invest in u.s. equities and how much another markets? clear, we don't actually make us both investments. we advise our clients who tend to be large institutional investors.
so we are obviously very cautious on u.s. equities right now and we had a preference friendly for high yield of the course of the year, especially when credit spreads blowout into the mid-800. and in the mid-800, they were defying the fault rates well above 5% to 6%. our preference for high-yield is not as strong as it was earlier in the year. certainly, we like ernie -- owning high-yield here and we do equities. we like selling u.s. equities versus long high yields now. let's talk about emerging markets briefly. you mentioned that you find bullish on places like brazil where there is a lot of political controversy at the moment. bullish on ae tactical trade in brazil last year. i actually think that north
american investors have misplaced faith in political change in brazil. we have seen this before. we saw this in the previous election where da silva was running against joe mauer -- jilma. to me, that sort of culture of political favors, to use a euphemism, won't change. at the end of the day, it is -- the the present brazilian market fundamentals. i don't expect the markets to rally much market and i think the brazilian consumers quite overextended. vonnie: we actually had a decision earlier today that the -- thean over house houseian undelower suffered a setback. we will leave it there. still ahead, on bloomberg markets, bloomberg news is on the ground in north korea as kim jong-il prepare -- kim jong-un
beew central committee will formed. it is a chance for the leader to present a united front to his world.and the we hope to report on the economy in the run-up, but our government reminds us to cut here, pyongyang's children's palace. today, this is all proof that can jump on -- kim jong-un is fulfilling his promise while developing nuclear arms missiles. across town, we were driven to theld armory, a reminder of army central and continuing role in north korea life. we have been taken to see some military history here in pyongyang in. -- they all
apparently hit bull's-eyes, three bullets in the center of the target down there in the range. there are hopes the party will enact reforms. a new middle class has sprung up. but much of the population remains poor and malnourished. sanctions against north korea are the toughest in 20 years. week commodity prices have hit rock bottom on what little the country does export. most will have to wait for the curtain to come down on this political of pat -- local pageantry before we get a clear insight into north korea's future. vonnie: tom mckenzie reporting from pyongyang. from around the world continue to criticize hedge funds come investors attending the milken institute global conference, to lend their harsh thoughts on hedge fund fees.
>> large institutional investors is off the table. charge too much for a good strategy, they can do anything. if they charge too much, they ruin the idea. >> the rates of return and the fee structure has discouraged some investors. >> investors are going to be -- go with their feet. the hedge funds they don't feel are giving them something. that will either force hedge funds out or force them to lower their fees. >> it is highly probable that the asset class will think a bit. >> i think people should yell at them. they deserve it. they should charge less. they should had more. but they are yelling at them too much now. we got perspective. >> clearly, an absolute aggregate -- underperformed
expectations. also last year. however, on a relative basis, it has been tough markets year-to-date. european equities have been underweight. with hedge funds, you are not buying the hfr indexi. scarlet: not losing faith, but there is a lot of skepticism. simon: if i look at the behavior of our clients, traditionally, private clients have bought the high profit manager and the name. is noticeably changing. we are seeing an incremental allocation, positive change in allocation to hedge funds. ,ut how this is manifesting again, is changing. it is focusing more on portfolios. so a kind of strategies, what combination
diversification managers are capable, not just with respect to the versification management but the whole portfolio. the willingness to pay for differentiated strategies are still there. scarlet: what do you think the risk? of liquid alt etf's simon: i'm not sure it necessarily poses an existentialist threat to hedge funds as a whole. i think it is a component. and an additional component potentially driving alpha through a portfolio. alix: a lot of these hedge funds are in the same names. if ido my homework, but see my buddies are invested in that stock, i won't be buying the stock because there is literally no one left to buy it
when you want to sell. have your clients changed their strategy in terms of who they might want to invest in and that sort of credit trade based on shares like valiant, which has been subject to this kind of thing? simon: it is interesting you are much in a single equity names. we look at the widely held macro positions. single name credit positions have been at risk. in the macro space, they have been your today to very problematic. what we say to our clients is not necessarily acquisitions to equity manager -- equity short managers. they are looking at longer strategies and high profile equity short manager. alix: you also like european high-yield credit.
it has seen an enormous rally. do you still like it at these levels? simon: we do. we are not expecting a significant, for the compression of spreads. where youd in europe have 75% of the boone market offering negative yields, and the ecb buying investment-grade nonfinancial domestically focused credit, a squeeze of investors into high-yielding fixed income will continue. plus, we are at a very early stage of a credit cycle. credit in europe, we are literally in the first year of outside expansion. vonnie: that was simon smiles. will find oute how the options market is handling today's market declines. and here's a look at some of the sectors today with the s&p energy index. they are up more than .5%. ansumer discretionary having
vonnie: this is "bloomberg markets." now it's time for the bloomberg business flash. assets could fetch between $300 million and $600 million apiece. ipo advisor has its already on the exchange a short list, along with goldman slacks. sachs.hange -- goldman the exchanges planning to go public by 2018. as. stocks trying to avoid
third day of losses. julie hyman is standing by. julie: thus far, stocks not succeeding. bowery is down chicago at the cboe. when we look at the action we see today, but also over the pastoral days, is this an indication of what we are going to see more of once earnings season is over with? scott: i think it is good not necessarily just this small, grudging move to the downside. i think we will see it both ways. volume is pretty lackluster. the vix isn't moving around too much. it hasn't really moved today even though the market has traded in a 100-point range, the dow had. we will see this continual grind here.
what's next on the table that is going to make something happen in the market? is it going to be something happens with oil and oil prices move significantly in one way or another? we have this foregone conclusion of the two candidates. that is going out to november. so what's it going to be? at least the next four to six weeks, we will be mired in just a real tight, slow range here. shorterooking at a horizon, tomorrow, we will get the jobs number. how do you think people set up ahead of that? scott: the natural pressure right now is to the downside. i am seeing small put buying in general to the downside on the s&p. are not that active. that tells me the marketplace is not expecting a real big mover now. if anything, the pressure is to the downside. you arendividually, looking at an interesting thing here. starbucks did not perform well after its last earnings report.
it had some disappointing numbers. yet you are looking not at a hugely bullish trade on this, but more so than what we have seen from starbucks recently. scott: yeah, i really like the price action in the sense that the stock has held right here some significant support. last earnings were not real good, nor the one in january frankly. yet the stock has held in the 56 range. i think on forward, some of the new shoes they have with mobile pay and opening up in europe, which is actually really week for them right now, i think that's going to help the stoxx year. -- the stocks here. go out tot to do is june options. it gives me about six weeks. 57.5 and the six to 7.5. that's my risk on this thing. it can go five dollars. if some of these initiative start hill -- sir hitting a
ligety slight turnaround, either out of europe or out of china, this stock has held here on really negative news and can really take a shot to the upside. 62.5 would be close to their recent highs. i just like it because it is an inexpensive play and a great stock to the upside. julie: gotcha. we will keep an i on starbucks and see how it continues to be trading. thank you very much. still ahead on bloomberg ferrots, michael defends the company decision not to sell to connect -- to gannett .
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newsroom. mark: syria, an airstrike has hia refugee camp knew the border with turkey. there was a report with 28 people dead, dozens more wounded. it is not clear who carried out the airstrike. first responders are on site .xtinct seeing fires the cap is home to hundreds of people who fled from the surrounding aleppo and timeout provinces. tamak provinces. mitt romney will skip of the republican gop convention in cleveland. trump has criticized romney saying he shouldn't have lost to president obama during the 2012 election. he called romney a choke artist. mr. trump may visit capitol hill as early as next week.
aids for jeff sessions is setting up meetings with republican leaders. an impeachment move in result has gone to the senate. nocuna's suspension has effect on it now. vonnie: thanks. markets close in 30 minutes. abigail doolittle is live at the nasdaq aired abigail: indeed, we do have -- nasdaq. abigail: indeed, we do have the nasdaq lower. tesla shares are down three days in a row, down more than 10% this week after the company did report a mainly in line for
squirter yesterday after the close. tesla also reaffirmed its full-year production target and set the goal to produce half a million vehicles each year's journey in 2018. that is pretty ambitious, a pretty big ram, considering that tesla produced a little more than 50,000 vehicles last year. vision and the possibility of turning to profitability. but they will be talking about the high casper and come increasing debt, and possible problems with production. today, with the stock down, back below its 200-day moving average, the bears have it in the near term. the worst drag in the nasdaq at this point, apple shares are lower. blaine curtis has downgraded and anle supplier -- downgraded apple supplier. he believes that the iphone 7 cycle could be week.
this follows the company's disappointing march quarter along with aeek, well below consensus guide for the june quarter, also on week iphone sales. it was announced today that apple and sap are to develop an iphone and ipad for businesses. about 10%ple down from those results and even pretty much on the year? abigail: true. at this point, it may be possible to make the case that apple is positioned somewhat precarious here, depending on buying support for the last nine months. that tells us that some between $92 and $95 a share, offers compelling value. the question is whether the strong selling pressure over the last number of months will continue to tire out these buyers and come at some point, they will reevaluate their positions. the level to watch his $92 per share.
support will, the most likely disappear and it could be somewhat bears for apple. so we have to stay tuned and see how that works out. vonnie: abigail doolittle at the nasdaq. much is made when tribune 's offer.gannett the bid was called to low and opportunistic. today, michael ferro told us what kind of premium he would like to see. michael: the reason why looks like that premium -- and i love gannett, i understand why they came when they did. before we came, the company had a material weakness. and then they stopped their dividend and those two things created a lot of downturn spiral on the stock. everyone is waiting to see -- and our analysts had our ebit
damuch lower. that was the opportunist nature. did it,tand why gannett but that truly isn't a premium. we are a great deal for gannett. i got it. it would be a great deal for gannett shareholders. but it would not be great for our shareholders. scarlet: is there any kind of discussion with gannett? michael: i am always willing to have conversations with anyone. we've reviewed everything. right now, they want us to do this [indiscernible] gannett doesn't seem to want to go quietly into the night. do?hat do you
how fast you feel like you need to prove to shareholders that, guys, we don't need gannett. michael: we have to prove that every day, but most importantly every quarter. tribune has to put in technology from the systems, content management systems, two and telogen's systems to -- intelligent systems to improve monetization. we are prepared to string quarters together, show our revenue in three different statements, something never done at tribune. we understand that. that is hard for any company that is trying to turn itself around, but also hard when you have a buyer breathing down your neck. michael: the shareholder meeting is already set. gannett can talk as much as they want, which i appreciate, but the board is where we are at now. we don't have to do anything other than perform, which is what we are going to do.
scarlet: are you confident your nominee will be elected at the june board meeting? michael: you are probably well no one can do anything at the annual meeting. gannet doesn't even have a right to vote at this meeting. that is pretty much done. 2017 is a different story. if we don't perform and shareholders speak out loud, they will do what the -- what needs to be done in 2017. scarlet: they have a bit of a built-in deadline. simon: -- michael: you are absolutely correct. alix: have you had any other conversations with other people in the business? we have had some people approach us. there are so many people love this industry, from billionaires to private equity want to invest in the company, partner with a company. ordering with "washington post" right now to take their
content management system and use it in our company. are working in a joint venture to work together for doing advertising sales nationally. so we are partners with gannett. we are fond of the company itself. scarlet: what is just basis doing right at the company -- what is jeff bezos doing right at the company? michael: jeff is like thomas s it -- thomas edison. he is one of the great people in our business. he is doing the same thing we are. he is try to create great content. we have a little bit bigger platform than he does. but he is getting his content all over the world, which is the same thing we plan on doing with our "l.a. times" brand, especially to the new world. "l.a. times" has great recognition in the bric companies and in south america.
a local definitely not paper. michael: we have 10 million -- 10 billion international users. is trying topany solicit stockholders to undermine the board and investor support? michael: i mean, anybody can buy shares. they can go make noise. but the issue is that we have to do the best thing for our shareholders. so they can do what they need to do. i understand whether want to get the company is such a low price, but our job is to protect our shareholders. scarlet: not for sale? michael: no. we are always open to talk to anyone. ahead, willl tomorrow's jobs report confirms signs of softening in the u.s. labor market or will we march higher? here is a look at payroll growth
about $4 billion if successful. once more, aig, the mortgage insurer part of it, looking to million andn $700 $800 million in an ipo. the countdown to the april jobs report. employers added 200,000 jobs last month. kaplan last hour, robert said he would like to see more market improvement before another rate increase. it seems like they are really pushing this idea of a july meeting. big difference between a live meeting and a rate hike is realistically a possibility. i don't think june is a realistic possibility after what , a disappointing
performance in q1. , heie: in this interview did say that he wanted to see more job growth. but we have had sustained 200,000 plus for so many months now. need todon't think we see further improvement. we need to see more the same. that is really the critical way we have to look at the april jobs report. on ahead when a come of jobs meetings, there is some nuance we are focusing on, whether it is a rebounded participation or earnings growth or aggregate income growth. this is a much more basic analysis of the economy -- analysis. the economy has gone through a three-quarter deceleration. there may be some seasonal issues regarding q1 gdp. now. below trend
economic indicators have suffered as a result. ae focus tomorrow, it is simple stick approach. it needs to be 200,000 are better to know that the market is holding up despite the sluggishness in the economy. vonnie: and the and implement rate is forecasted the four point &. carl -- 4.9%. carl: ignore it. we would need to see a blowout number, somewhere between 250,000 and 300,000, and see evidence that the economy is really bouncing back in the indicators that would tell us gdp growth will come in with a three handle and possibly north of that. it seems like a tall order given the fact that we saw earlier this week the manufacturing imf barely looking better. but probably consistent with 2% to 2.5%. vonnie: if the fed is intent on
moving, if the fed feels the economy can do it, they will moving juno matter what the market things. arl: the fed doesn't want to rock the boat. they want a well telegraphed message. if they are lean towards june, they will be much more forceful about that meeting, the more than just a live meeting in the coming weeks. vonnie: thank you so much. we will be back with more on the aig breaking news in a moment on bluebird box -- on up a bloomberg markets." ♪
might be seeing a united guaranty raise of $700 million to 800 model -- a hundred million dollars. they're looking to exit this because aig is dealing with some activists in the company now. john hancock, the ceo, is try to shrink down the company and this is one step. he has said the mullah, we will exit united guaranty eventually. they're looking to sell about 19.9% of the company. and now we are coming to you, according to our sources -- this will put the company at a valuation around $4 billion. looking at the competition across the board, radiant is the number two mortgage insurer in this market. this evaluatio premium to radia. they are looking for a better price for this exit that would help aig down this road to shrieking itself. vonnie: would it satisfy --
shrinking itself. vonnie: would it satisfy these activists? alex: what we are hearing across investors are looking for returns and managing the expense ratio over at aig. getting rid of and investing parts of the business like this seems to be the steps they are taking. paulson is also another activist. he is also involved with radiant as well. he knows the mortgage insurance space. so in an interesting kind of connection when it comes to the folks who are educating over at aig. vonnie: you are has managed to deliver returns and managed to keep the ship upright, right? alex: that's right. you have seen some slimming of the businesses and employees laid off. given market conditions, he is able to get this out. we don't have timing yet and a lot of the facts or the things factoring has to do with the low
ipo market this year. it has been desperately slow game slower and slower since the recession. people will be looking at how the comparables are trading. if they can get the valuation that they are going for, it will really depend on if that window continues to be open. vonnie: does it depend on the federal reserve raising rates at all? alex: potentially. because of the nature of this business, that will go into the calculation for these equity investors. when they are looking at the portfolio and what united guarantee can return, that is something that equity investors will be paying attention to when they are deciding whether or not to buy into a potential ipo. vonnie: that would leave still a huge business, but it would be taking 20% of the business. you still have commercial insurance, about 22% of the business. other consumer insurance and financial services insurance and so forth. alex: right. aig has been extending bets on highly rated bonds.
a property lenny, they have been scaling back on hedge funds. you see some changes in the mix here with hancock. as we are seeing now, these first steps do seem to be realistic with united guarantee's exit. -- jpmorgan and morgan stanley are leading. you have seen some other insurance companies say, like metlife, potentially looking to exit their retail business. but we have not been able to report out that they have hired anyone or they have set valuations. vonnie: of course, they have other priorities. alex: exactly. vonnie: they do not want to be labeled -- you can bring us more details as they come in. the stock is down about .1% in trading. we are in the final few moments of the treaties -- trading sessions. stocks headed for the third day of losses. what is the reason for today's
drop? >> it's more perhaps an issue with earnings. let's face it. we are at the point now are earning season is very well done , and we know the kind of rebound a lot of people are anticipating in terms of what analysts were estimating going into the results, it just hasn't happened. with about 420 companies in the s&p 500 out as of now, you're looking at 8.1% drop in earnings for the first quarter. and when the reports began coming in, analysts were looking for a 10.1% drop. that figure had come down from a half percent increase during the first quarter. so they lowered it far enough and people will have no problem stepping over. rank of america merrill lynch was talking about four point d. it just not there -- it is just not there.
where's more companies and, that's over now. david: there is no doubt that people are paying attention to that. the sameu've got scenario you had for years. people anticipating the current quarter will be better than the one before. and the one after that will be an improvement and the one after that, too. as far as the second quarter goes, yes. they are looking for lower earnings, but not as low as the first. by the third quarter, an increase. by the fourth quarter, and even bigger increasing you get to 8.1% in the first quarter. it is a question over whether they will be right this time when they have been wrong for years. vonnie: how much do something like the jobs report matter to the equities and markets these days? david: it matters to the extent that it will influence with the fed does. let's face it. there are people will to you that the reason we have had a
seven-plus year bull market is that stocks have been relatively cheap. you haven't been able to earn much on treasury securities and other such as that. it encourages people to take risks, put money in the stock market, and you see the results. vonnie: this bouncing commodities, like oil, for example, really ugly sustained. why isn't that giving equities a little bit of a tailwind? david: it is helping to the extent that the energy producers are benefiting. that said, as far as the first quarter results go, analysts in theticipating a loss s&p 500 and that is exactly what they are gay -- getting. so it's a long way for these companies to recover. you figure that that will way on the stock market more generally as that process unfolds. vonnie: are you keeping an eye on currencies that all? who hasn't, right, if you are a u.s. equity investor? david: that's right.
a strategist over at wells fargo securities kind of highlighted what is going on. you've got a rise in yen. if you see that is sort of an indicator of what is -- what investors are anticipating when it comes to the possibility of deflation and how that may play out in terms of the global economy. vonnie: dave wilson, thank you. that is it for "bloomberg markets." averages.he major less than four minutes until the close, relatively unchanged.
[closing bell ringing] scarlet: u.s. stocks turning ther as a short rally in market is invaded. the s&p 500 extending three weeks lows and investors waiting the big jobs report for clues on the strength of the world alix: 's biggest economy. gopro and others reporting this hour. the prime minister of turkey is expected to step down. we have a special guest host today, welcome back. marketegin with the minutes. not a lot when you look at the movement of the indexes. moved within a narrow