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tv   Bloomberg Markets Middle East  Bloomberg  May 8, 2016 12:00am-1:01am EDT

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♪ >> the wildfire ripping through canada's oil fields. about a million barrels of production in danger. one of opec's most venerable aside as saudied arabia looks to different future. china's export is rising. global demand for goods holds
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up. is 8:00 in dubai. in london. this is bloomberg markets middle east. a couple of major stories are going to drive the markets. the oil minister in saudi arabia stepping aside. in the fire in alberta. the oil volatility during his time at the tops he didn't live through two dollar oil. this is the kind of twenty-year tenure that the next man can actually look forward to. issue is about
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continuity and we will bring in our managing editor. what happens in opec. check in on the time of day. a little bit of stability. exports rising ever so slightly. what is the drivers of going to drive the campaign. breaking news from afp what will happen with oil. let's get into the market is. the market closes wednesday night. dubay was down by 4/10 of 1%. the aex was up by 1%.
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thee seeing more discussion dollar was up over 1%. in the united states we have a nonfarm payrolls. it is the first back-to-back weekly drop since february. 50 day moving average 2045. 54% has beaten it. those are your market wraps. you can see what else is making headlines today a warm welcome to tracy. turkish president has again attacked europe for
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demanding that he change anti-terror legislation in his effort to allow travel to the eu. everyone wants a wider definition of terrorism in the face of wider threats from kurdish militants. the eu of to supporting the kurdistan workers party. the new mayor of london has promised to work with all communities in the city saying it not only tolerates it celebrates diversity. is a challenge to nationalism such as that of donald trump. he was sworn in on saturday after beating the conservative candidate.
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the african finance company founded by former barclays boss bob diamond he told an audience in london that the target is one of several african countries where it already owes the lender a great deal. he declined to offer a name. is underpinned by expectations that africa will be the biggest driver of global growth over the next 25 years. supplanting china which is slowing down. employees are seeing a preview of shanghai disneyland. it opened its doors early for trial run ahead of the official launch next month. the five-and-a-half billion dollar park. the red carpet premiere of the flying -- the lion king show.
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manus: wildfires raging in canada. estimated one million barrels of oil production in the region is in danger. our oil reporter rebecca andrews joins us. we're seeing afp give us more thisxt for the size of fire. how close if at all are we to getting it under control. rebecca: we are far away from getting anything under control. he is been calling this fire the beast. it is fast-growing and unpredictable. this fire is creating its own wind and shifting within hours.
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>> there is a human side to this story. an economic side to the story. will theof how much oil industry be affected. up to a million barrels of oil in jeopardy. the companies that are involved in this. rebecca: this is canada's largest oil company. , husky energy, make energy. pretty much everyone. this is about 40% of canada's
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oilsands that are currently off-line. according to estimates from bloombergs numbercrunching team. of been evacuating workers so they can't operate at full capacity. the steam has been coming in. also pipelines have been flowing in. just because of the risk. some of these oil projects to continue operating. where will go we don't know. it depends on how long the fire is burning. and how close it is to the oilsands. thank you very much. we get more breaking news on that oil fire in canada of course we will bring that to you. this affects one of our main stories. a significant shift that includes changes in the oil industry and the central bank.
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we own this side of the story. he is stepping aside. the new man in charge continuity, will it deliver continuity? >> yesterday divided into two pieces. the oil market is going to change the quality of defending market share. hopefully try to boost prices a bit more. the answer to that generally seems to be you can continue exactly along the policy. it is even driven a harder line the name he himself is done. >> this is one of the things that came through on the oil stories. it's a mostly he was having to phone home.
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he putting his plan in place. i don't know what happened in that room exactly. it certainly looks like there was a deal. he made it clear that will not be a deal. >> it seems like every week we come into work and there's another mountainous headline from friday. not so much grasping for power but blocking himself in very much as the anointed one. there's huge change going on. he is already announced the plan. we had interviews. this is really about implementation.
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you have a new man in charge he's been around for 30 years. he's in charge of changing things immediately. it is not just the oil ministry now. there's mineral resources. is that sophistication. changing the way it is done. is so is greatly a contribution on the show. set yourself up for the trading week. your digital destination. you can watch all our reports in the interviews. available only online. president shows
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investors just how quickly politics can have an impact. that takes onw power. the wildfires of canada. a shakeup in saudi arabia. how will this play out in the oil markets?
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saudi arabia's king issued more than 50 ro decrees reorganizing the government. for a post-oil era. they were replaced by the he previously served as health minister.
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and he was not being named as head of the newly ministry of energy. since 1995.oil job it shifted opec policy. he became an advisor to the royal court. he is a former deputy governor. he becomes the head of the new ministry. part of a wider government reshuffle that says we are in line with 2030. that is the blueprint that was in place for last month. the chief economist at oman investment fund. we've just been talking to riyadh.
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he was the man broken many deals. this change was a mean for you? >> i think there will be continuity. a reshuffle of parliament. is probably in the making for some time now. king and a new power balance in riyadh. these are all key positions that are more in line with the rulers. he's been very active. on the international stage of the domestic stage. i think this will be essentially a change in the people who are close to that. it will follow the same policy.
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i'll see any major shifts in the oil supply. >> continuity will be there. we've had no freeze in place. this oil shoots in price rally going to be very short-lived. >> i don't agree in general. if you want to know where the oil prices going to have to ask torself would you lend money independent oil companies right now. fracking is a business built on borrowing. debt is now becoming junk
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debt. are becoming a daily occurrence. yields on these junk bonds is 20%. are tracking the exposure to the oil business. the 20% that is required by the markets to fund these cash you see where we're going. well over libor.
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iran will take time to come back into the markets. they will have time to revamp their oil industry. it is a slow-motion process. the perspective is on the global that is about a million barrels of oil. from a market perspective. we focus on canadian story. the old method was oversupply. it was to the tune of 3 million barrels. 1.45. are down to
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the market is getting close to balance. you have a norm amount of reserves. and inventories. particularly in the united states. it will take time to absorb those efforts. in a situation where the market is oversupplied by one of the half-million. somethingting to be more than significant. it is about the dollar and the supply and demand. say that the fracking stories going to take production levels lower in the united states.
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where can you see the next movement as it were. this will not be a lenient process. 12will not be rebounding to months 18 months. the search for equilibrium. it is difficult to exactly gauge where and how this will take place. because you have a number of unknowns. how well will china do. it comes down to the biggest
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protagonist on the demand side. which of those three elements for you play host to the most. it is deathly china and global recovery. the fracking industry is in deep crisis. we have seen production already declining by half a million. probably the process will continue throughout the year. not everybody will go out of business. the nonconventional oil industry is different from the established companies. for this industry.
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when that see them going out of business entirely. reducedbe substantially. you think of that is going to get bigger. anything but downgraded. will this completely effect or >> thank you for joining us. he is the chief economist. up, kim jong-un addresses
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the communist party conference. that is next. ♪
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♪ let's get straight to our china correspondent. tom: it was a real experience to attend this korean conference. rows upon rows of mercedes. suggesting they are owned by top government leaders. only be introduced new members of the politburo here in pyongyang. they said it is not going to happen. broadcast on state media is the
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address. saying we would not use the others. getting very few indications that there are any chance that he could slip away from his nuclear policy. trying to build up the nuclear arsenal. we've seen to nuclear tests under kim jong-un. trying to attach nuclear warheads to intercontinental ballistic missiles. it obviously affects the economy here. this is about respect. that arsenal will help them achieve their goals. the five-year economic plan of
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which we have very few details. some kind of blessing.
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♪ >> the wildfire ripping through canada is endangering more than a million barrels of production. one of opec's most venerable figures is moved aside. beyond the oil. no random blip. rising for the second straight month. s&p has revised turkey's output
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from negative to stable. the uncertainty of the prime minister. a looming power struggle. we were boiling toward this point where only. he surprised at you that came to that. >> there was a power struggle between the president and the cabinet. the prime minister want to exert his power. with the't go well president supporters. that came to a head last week. reportedlyinister asked to the prime minister to respect his space and get on with it. they called this congress to a vote. >> i find it fascinating. he saw him about his brotherhood with the president. let's talk about markets.
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the volatility on the leader in -- lira is great. a great deal consternation. >> what happened last week was the uncertainty in turkey. they are attempting to maintain stability. kurdish insurgents. turmoil raises the possibility of another election. there is a red headline coming in. election will call an july 2. hot off the press for you.
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another election in play, this one in australia. july 2. a lot of political issues in sydney. the australian prime minister calling an election for july 2. we'll will get you more detail on that. >> i was just talking about the possibility of yet another turkish election. it would be the third and one year. that accounts for the movement in the market. it muddies the outlook. the expectation was that the central bank would cut rates. it muddies the outlook. he was to exert so much more influence. he was very vocal. radel has been on a tear.
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money flooded into turkey back in march. is he was risk now seen as one of the voices of reason. now he is the last surviving official of that government. will the new central bank pressurewithstand the from the president? >> we're going to discuss of course the implications with the eu. thank you so much. the very latest from the turkish power struggle. candidate is the
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transport and telecom minister. from most that post of the 13 years. he's a very close confidant of mr. erdogan. also the cabinet spokesperson. the problem with him is he is is strong headed as the rest. he is going to make it sound like it is all about mr. erdogan rather than a diverse government. he is in with heavy baggage.
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it is caught gambling in singapore. i don't know if he's going to like that choice. as far as we know he doesn't any realeconomic view diplomatic skills. those risks arising. the eu turkish talks. that he isnd potentially snubbing the eu and going our own way. that seems to be the big story over the weekend. is that the risk. that is huge tragedy. he is ultimately blackmailing the eu. unleashing millions of poor refugees into the waters of the agm. he has had the money we going to
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see thousands drowned in the waters of the aegean sea. him there'sn to going to be a massive backlash. in the constituencies. otherwise china is going to collapse under the weight of it. aboveld be talking about and beyond the visa waiver. turkey's accession to this is kaput. >> what message does angela merkel need to send to the turkish people to make them understand the risks they are taking. the turks need to understand that there is for them in the eu. democraticve a more
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and more modern society that develops much faster than right now. but to do so we must really ways thate asiatic seems to be what is advocated by oregon. transgressions against the dissidents and journalists in opposition to stop. it needs to raise its game in terms of democratic reforms. the eu should not compromise on any of those grounds. engaged a keep turkey constructive view of the annexation. thank you so much for joining us. the country advisor for global sources partners. the very latest on the turkish story.
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making headlines around the world. we have more signs of stability in china. exports registered a modest increase. 4.1%.as shipments rose and near 19% jump a month earlier. extending is losing streak to 19 months. almost $46 billion. the wildfires in canada that are still raging. they've shut down more than a million barrels a day of oil production. so far the disruption is having a limited impact on the price of crude. it is being offset but the highest output among opec nations in years. remain about 60% below their mid-2014. pushed nigerian oil
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production to its lowest level in years. chevron shut down about 90,000 barrels a day in nigeria. following an attack on offshore platform on wednesday. the price of oil is having a knock on effect on private planes. the general aviation at manufacturers association say sales of private jets fell 16%. that is the biggest drop in five years. spending within the oil industry is strengthening the dollar. it is also up and demand. chaponvicted drug lord el has been transferred to a prison in northern mexico. he was recaptured in february. he is fighting extradition to america. gunmen twice pulled off brazen
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jailbreaks. escaping through tunnels and ran right to the floor of his shower. this is bloomberg news. >> coming up, more on the power struggle in turkey. changes at the top. ♪
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♪ we had breaking news. the australian prime minister has called election for july 2. he is saying australians have a very clear choice in that election. this is going to be dominated by
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a battle over tax cuts and which party can steer the economy. it is about rebalancing. multinationals must pay their fair share. says this isull about economic management. let's return to one of our top stories. turkey, plenty to talk about. so you try to put this into context. erdogan is a power-hungry man. when you see what is happened over the past seven days. how do you see it through the prism of international politics? i don't think it is anything really new. it is a process that erdogan has
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been undergoing out for several years. not necessarily new. thever we do have uncertainty related to who the next prime ministers going to be. i think it does reduce the likelihood that you can continue with any structural reforms and in the will find that environment that we find ourselves in today. i brought up the volatility of it. the political uncertainty itself. we were at a record low level. chineseoments of exports. it's roiled the markets. you think there's more volatility to come.
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>> i think the volatility will persist. i think you may be giving too much weight to the local politics. volatilitye the almost has more to do with what is happening internationally. year fundto every five to 7% of their gdp in international markets. a substantial amount of money. if something were to happen that affected it turkey typically suffers. such has been a beneficiary from low oil oil prices. and the environment we are and then the last week specifically they took a hit. agencies ares already snapping at turkey. does that risk concern here? the rule of law and the
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independent institutions. that is with the markets in the ratings agencies see is the real risk. in fact it's compromised i do think the ratings come into play. foreign participation could be affected. they have to walk a fine line. i'm consolidating power or achieving negative issues. as very active in the global financial markets. remaining an attractive destination for capital. >> you mentioned to the volatility of this charge. a much more global effect. >> china, all the emerging markets. they will be particularly exposed. it is a significant current account deficit. uncertainty that
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could address that. you can look at the central bank. rebalancing wherewith they were in the international level. unorthodox policies the turkey has pursued. the independence of the central bank. a layer of complexity uncertainty. as to what monetary policy they choose to impose. we would think that probably wouldn't be the best thing to do right now. the central bank governor can come in. it is more comfortable with the new prime minister. turkeyarity around where is headed on these political issues. mind theo keep in
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turkey is trying to navigate a very complex political environment. they have a vested interest in what is happening in the region. >> they have been vying to place it into turkey's hands. you just heard from the last guest. he was very clear he thought it could fall apart. it raises the risk considerably. men is a drop in the bucket. the situation that has emerged. your finds itself in. turkey was fairly vocal about saying they were misguided.
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lives are at stake. and power is at stake. >> back in february we got your view on the bond market. oil prices have bounced back by 60%. the credit agencies have been in play. there's been a little bit of rebound. where you stand at the moment on this region. >> the bonds aren't that will correlated with oil prices. if you think about the last six they're are trying to
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introduce taxation. the right policy mix. a story for the bonds. >> it is great to get you in and get a perspective on that. you can move away from that correlation. how are the events in saudi arabia affecting the markets this week? ♪
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♪ we will set of your trading week for you. this is the week ahead. the latest indicators on china's economy. the producer price data for april. further easing at the factory gate. deflation. it is going to get into the latest jobs data. unemployment has been a key source of what led to the election of the ruling party. youth unemployment remains near
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12%. it brings in japan's biggest earners. then we move into thursday. nestle is confident it to meet its 2016 targets. saudi arabia, the shakeup there is huge story. but also the post-oil era. also the wildfire that is raging through the canadian oil field. it couldeve this stage
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double in the space of 24 hours. you and i got together and the one word we decided on was continuity. the accession to power he's been around for very long time. he is been a part of the decision-making process. from a market perspective especially in the short term nothing is expected to change.
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i called it oil volatility. and then policy shifted. >> they learned a lesson in 1983. the price went below $10. what is the lesson from that that doesn't work. market shares what it's about. we will looking out to sea as profits are up or down.
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especially with oil prices down. >> we will make sure you get the proper information. thank you.
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