Skip to main content

tv   Trending Business  Bloomberg  May 8, 2016 9:00pm-11:01pm EDT

9:00 pm
it is monday the ninth of may, this is "trending business." we are going to take you to manila, sydney, and melbourne. halting oildfire production in canada. any freeze in production must include iran. takata reporting a gain on reports.
9:01 pm
225 putting the figure had $20 million, although honda will not confirm that. the elections are underway in the philippines with more than 50 million voters eligible. at stake is an economy described as asia's rising tiger. follow me on twitter. hong kong markets getting underway in 30 minutes. we are a pickup on index, up over three quarters of 1%. in two weeks.in this will be the first time japan has been online for all five trading days of the week after being shut last week and
9:02 pm
that prior friday. a little bit of a comeback today , helping alongside the weaker yen. taiwan just coming online. singapore, a good opening. pretty flat in malaysia on the open. the south korea underperforming. the australian market had a shaky start. we are seeing gains coming through in the early session. asx 200 up. new zealand, down 1/10 of 1%. we will see better movement in the region today. positive gains coming through in the u.s. session on friday. betting thatomists the likelihood of a jew rate hike is off the table.
9:03 pm
anotherlikelihood of lift up is in september. we want to show you some of the australian banks today. share prices higher. banks also have discovered they have approved hundreds of home loans backed by fraudulent income documents in china, although it is a small portion of the loan books. crude oil price, continuing to rise. $53 a barrel. in the philippines, more than 15 million people are choosing their new president. the focus is on the presidency
9:04 pm
in this election. it is arguably the most important in 30 years. let's start with, what is at stake? a lot.a: the economy in particular. -- this is theer rising tiger of asia. the economy growing at 6%. pretty much prompted by the administration of the outgoing president. he has managed to lift the philippines out of junk ratings are a lot is at stake. ,hether they build momentum lots of challenges facing the economy. it is still lagging behind neighbors like vietnam, of the philippines, thailand, malaysia. we have 10 million filipinos
9:05 pm
living and working overseas. jobs and infrastructure need work. look at the congested roads, getting to the airport from the city can take you to hours depending on whether it is a peek. . period. a lot of challenges facing the next president. this is more about personality as opposed to policy. we have a list of candidates. leading the popularity polls is roderigo, a mayor. he is a self-professed womanizer pretty he says in order to bring down the rate of crime, he will kill 100,000 criminals in feed their bodies to the fish in the bay of melena. he has also challenged mainstream leadership.
9:06 pm
also among the candidates, senator, somebody who is seen as an experienced when it comes to executive decisions. she is the daughter of the famous actor in the philippines. the controversy has to do with her citizenship. she spent two years as an american citizen, without giving up. lots of questions about whether she will stay loyal to the country. the philippines at a crossroads. 50 4 million eligible voters will have to decide who is the best person. the front runner -- is he hawkish when it comes to geopolitics? the implications are
9:07 pm
wide ranging. remember that the philippines has been a long-standing ally of the united states did this could cause discomfort in washington dc. he has been likened to donald trump. he has been very vocal. the u.s. lost a complaint about a comment he made about the raping of an australian missionary. he challenged the u.s. to end relations. the u.s. may have some problems should he come into office. .ishaad: thank you for that we're going to have more on that throughout the show. tweet us your thoughts and opinions. foreign exchange it are from china pointing to more stabilization for their economy.
9:08 pm
best?gns are modest at reporter: we are coming out of a of february and march. everybody looking for signs of stability in the chinese economy in we got a -- sort of. second rose 4.1%, the month in a row. that is a number that was made prettier by the yuan /depreciation. exports fell. a weaker currency helps exporters be more competitive by chinese leaders are not banking on a boost from overseas demand for their recovery efforts. the premier saying, the economy still faces great downward pressure. domestic demand continues to be week. imports fell for an 18th consecutive month, down 5.7%. lower by near the elephant
9:09 pm
percent in dollar terms. that helped bump the trade surplus up to a larger than forecasted $45.6 billion u.s.. foreign exchange reserve posted their first back-to-back monthly gains in two years, showing some confidence has returned. last year, china had to burn through half $1 trillion in reserves to defend the yuan after that surprised devaluation . last month, we saw some stability return as china's affects reserves rose by $7 billion to $3.22 trillion. the u.s. dead holding off -- the off fromholding
9:10 pm
raising rates. the central bank of china reiterated that he wants to keep the yuan stable. against the dollar, it has been -- virtually unchanged. the yuan against a basket of 13 currencies has weakened more than 4%, reflecting strength in the yen and euro. yuan has been stable only in withit has marched in step the dollar, weaker against other currencies. are going to have a look at a new boss -- a new oil boss in saudi arabia. saudi arabia has shaken up its cabinet, naming a new central banker and a new oil minister. for ended the worst streak oil stocks in two months.
9:11 pm
the kingdom may finally be getting ready to reduce dependence on crude. it gave back gains but closed just fractionally higher. the king appointed a new central bank governor to add the monetary agency. 50 royal decrees were issued on saturday. honda says it hasn't confirmed the number of airbags and ordered that the nikkei news putting the figure and more than 20 million around the world. honda is planning additional recalls that could cost $2 billion. that follows after takata was ordered to replace many more. visits to urge car owners to have their vehicles fixed. up to 69 million airbags would
9:12 pm
have to be recalled. japan's money supply could overtake that of the u.s. they increased threefold over the past three years. that was in april according to the latest boj report. some traders say this chart the yen iseakness in on the way. and economist predicted in 1996 and monetary expansion would result in a weaker yen, resulting in a decline over two years. it is hard to imagine the one-way bet that sent the yen up 11% against the dollar this year -- that this could continue. the monetary base is up to 77% of the nominal gdp.
9:13 pm
just for comparison, the u.s. is at 22%. whyaad: we are looking at [indiscernible] and they to consider further --e cuts could australia starts his longest campaign in decades. take you to sydney for our look on that. some investors may be facing a tough time, but how are the superrich navigating the rough waters? ♪
9:14 pm
9:15 pm
the imf trend growth forecasts pointing to rising debt concerns in asia. how are investors responding?
9:16 pm
you have the perfect guest to answer that question? yvonne: good morning. we are live at the four seasons with simonjoined smoltz, who works with high wealth clients. us.k you for joining you were telling us how you to hong kong from los angeles where you say the mood is depressing? how is the mood here? think it isdo not much worse. it is amazing. private equity managers talking about small valuations. my take away was a very cautious outlook. two things differentiate the
9:17 pm
mood at the moment. one is faded not necessarily participate in terms of selling into the falls that the markets had. today, many clients have seen modest gains, which is very different from hedge fund managers. mood ision, the general andably better on average it has improved this year versus other regions. there could be a boost in this part of the world. what about in terms of portfolios? your clients have not done much since january? guest: people have been staying the course. provedhe phone, that has to be a strong investment
9:18 pm
recommendation. yvonne: are there concerns about negative rates? bracelet? --he brexit? guest: in the u.k., it is about the referendum. in the middle east, it is concern over the direction of oil. in saudi arabia, it is about the reform agenda. the near term, what it means with respect to the needs of the economic direction. very different depending on where you go. is the u.s.onality election. --nne: is that going to be why? there is a lot of uncertainty about a trump presidency.
9:19 pm
hawkish. to be more will that be good in terms of the market? guest: there is a lot of uncertainty about what a trump presidency would bring in terms of policy given how much that , even point has changed during the primaries. there is also uncertainty about whether he would be elected president. we have uncertainty whether it would be clinton on the democratic side or even bernie sanders yvonne:. -- bernie sanders. do you think in terms of looks for japan? we could be more tactical. we are looking at dislocation. we're continuing to find
9:20 pm
long-term investment opportunities. allocations, we have taken from their pure data macro desk. are preferred credit exposure is by eurozone yield in with currencies rather than taking macro that's, we are being more nuanced. yvonne: thank you for joining us here at the four seasons. we're going to be here all ubsing at the ups -- summit. coming up, rio getting
9:21 pm
billions. we will hear a report from mongolia. ♪
9:22 pm
9:23 pm
this is the scene just outside of manila. this is the outgoing president. filipinos are beginning to vote in what is seen as a hotly contested presidential election. people are making up their mind about that front runner, who is a controversial figure. holding an 11 point lead over
9:24 pm
the latest polls. maintaining support after making light of the rape incident. president, outgoing about to go into the polling station. at stake, an economy that the risingank describes as a tagger, fueled by a young and growing population. according to some estimates, it is set to expand more this year. two other contestants in the election. keep tabs on of course what is going on there. rio tinto confident that the
9:25 pm
expansion of the oyu tolgoi in mongolia. the market should move from surplus to deficit by 2020. significant will this be on a global scale yet how important is it for rio tinto? a huge expansion in mongolia, just north of the chinese border. when this expansion is complete in 2027, issue be the third-largest copper mine in the world, behind escondido in chile. tinto is pitching its growth bandwagon to copper with this investment. the guy who was the head of will copper and coal unit
9:26 pm
take over as ceo in july, signaling a private from iron to copper. investors are looking at stagnating prices. they are asking, where is the , here? their response is in mongolia. the prospects are massive. it will produce half a million tons a year when that expansion is complete. why would a company authorized more than 5 billion dollars in investment in copper? it is all about the they are demand story,
9:27 pm
betting that middle-class consumers will drive copper demand. coupled to that is aging minds across the world. rishaad: we will be back. ♪
9:28 pm
show me movies with romance. show me more like this. show me "previously watched." what's recommended for me. x1 makes it easy to find what you love. call or go online and switch to x1. only with xfinity. show show me more like this. s. show me "previously watched." what's recommended for me.
9:29 pm
x1 makes it easy to find what blows you away. call or go online and switch to x1. only with xfinity. specificmost asian stocks have started higher. shares, financial companies leading the way there. rising crude prices. china is showing signs of stabilization after gains in foreign reserves.
9:30 pm
imports also down almost 11%, trade surplus of $45 billion. benigno aquino about to cast his vote with more than 15 million filipino citizens affecting his successor. recent polling giving grace poll, 22 -- grace poe, 22%. reporter: mixed between the asian market in the market in hong kong. we are seeing a rebound on the hang seng. its longest losing streak since december. a comeback today, only to stocks
9:31 pm
on the index in the red. the shanghai market, a different story, down by 9/10 of 1%. export data coming through over the weekend. taiwan looking quite good. philippines closed today for the election. australia has also turned negative. it is really this market here that we have been watching. nikkei is up by half of 1%. yen is driving japanese stocks higher as they open for the first four trading week after last week. we have seen iron ore in
9:32 pm
singapore, as much as 6.1%. news corp. shares rallying on that something number that came through on friday. watching some stocks in hong kong as well. glencore is said to be in talks according to reuters. crude from theon alberta fire, but it is really pushing oil prices higher. japan, europe and the u.s. have been struggling to boost credit growth. the pboc has a different approach. what are they doing? guest: the big difference is
9:33 pm
government control. when the pboc pumps money, the can put money into the economy could that is in contrast to the eurozone or the bank of japan, the central bank is offering assistance and cheap quiddity, but it is not making its way into the economy. rishaad: it is about the multiplier effect. guest: that is how they are creating more. compare it to japan, where the boj put money into the economy way it ends up right back at the boj. that is what the difference is. china is still king credit stoking credit--
9:34 pm
creation. without getting into an argument about qe, even while they are engaged, the fault in reserves is making their balance sheet come down. their overall balance sheet is contracting in size. the trouble is creating more credit doesn't necessarily mean good news. guest: they are hugely indebted. a commentary warning about the risk of debt leverage in china. given the pace of buildup in
9:35 pm
debt in japan, much has been over the last decade. a lot of it hasn't been efficient. this base continues cash this continues.s pace rishaad: australia in election mode. all the seats in both houses of for grabs for the first time in almost 30 years. he would minister said be a shoe in things are tight now. the honeymoon. for malcolm turnbull ended and he did not go through any of the
9:36 pm
reforms he was speaking boldly about. part of the reason for that was was out by small parties. new voting rules were passed. all seats in both houses are up for grabs. the government open it will get back in with a more favorable set of circumstances. what are the latest opinion polls suggesting? 50-50.it is looking of course, it is not a proportional system. like first past the post great britain. if you look at this chart, it shows you the breakdown in the lower house. handyalition has a majority. the labour party needs 19 seats
9:37 pm
to get back on the treasury bench. they have the government installed as the favorite to return to power. malcolm turnbull has a lead over the opposition leader when it comes to preferred prime minister's. the government is hopeful it will get back in in this epic election campaign. let's look at other stories. the commonwealth bank of a profit ofclaring 2.3 billion australian dollars. they are joining their competitors and reporting higher charges. this is after a 4.5% rise. another indication of the challenge vendors are facing. toshiba will have a president
9:38 pm
coming within the company despite their accounting scandal. the interim leader will be meeting inter a june. he will stay on as a special advisor. the new president says he intends to narrow toshiba's sprawling operation. disney shanghai is proving popular before its opening. iny held a trial run input the thousands of fans. they conduct some operations for a limited number of guests ahead of the debut. it is hoping the resort will tap into china's growing middle class. pricesook at crude because we have fires taking place in canada and the announcement of a new oil minister in saudi arabia. has a new later
9:39 pm
-- what does this say about the prospects of production? i think it is business as usual for saudi arabia, he is an ally of print solomon. -- print solomon -- prince solomon. that is a fundamental shift. business as usual. policy is working. rishaad: what will change? they are producing near record levels. guest: they are. -- weill change is one have iran and iraq producing more.
9:40 pm
it may even damage the gains we have seen. now,u look at the market wti is that more than 70%. the market might be comfortable with the prizes are. we are going to be back in the philippines in a moment. ♪
9:41 pm
9:42 pm
john -- kimg jong-un focusing on energy and agriculture.
9:43 pm
john mckenzie was in pyongyang for the seventh party congress. the old economy still .ominates in north korea factories churning out basic products like this copper cable maker in pyongyang. the export some commodities, although fewer now that china has banned most imports. it makes money by sending laborers abroad. in pyongyang, there has been notable changes. up.buildings have sprung there are more cars. there are more shops and restaurants. we got to ride in a city taxi. transit isblic seeing upgrades.
9:44 pm
we are inside the pyongyang metro, but they are still relying on old german trains. new have introduced entrants, a sign of economic development. didn'ters can now so i reference and relying on paper tickets. on the streets, evidence of the more significant technological upgrade. pyongyang residents are avid smartphone users and they can choose from different brands. selling a a store product produced in north korea. the top model costs around $400 and comes preloaded with an android operating system and apps. as is often the case, things are not always what they seem. blockedional calls are and the only surfing you can
9:45 pm
deal is on the government-controlled internet. rishaad: let's look at other stories making headlines. wildfires in the oilsands region knocking out more than a million barrels per day of production, threatening to spread to neighboring saskatchewan. residents have all left fort mcmurray. go -- sunco have pulled workers out of the area. donald trump speaking about texas saying his biggest concern is giving the middle class a sizable break. he says he is less worried about helping the rich. he acknowledged that things will change if he wins. he shifted his economic
9:46 pm
proposal, including suggesting that he would not eliminate the national debt and could renegotiate it. indian authorities issuing a written notice for the rest of the drinks and aviation mogul. india has asked the british government to extradite him for failing to address creditors. he denies being a willful default or. you are watching bloomberg news. let's get back to live coverage of the philippine elections. we are standing by in manila. [inaudible]
9:47 pm
markets down about 10%. us. to have you with -- has now confidence on whoever the incoming president is? risk-averse. anything can happen during elections. we are more concerned that it is orderly and honest. that will make us more comfortable. can the philippines remain the dollar amount investors? >> we think so. most of the foundation needed for a good economy are there. however, the new president can
9:48 pm
pursue conforms. business, we will definitely lobby the new administration to be more friendly in the way we do business. whether or not the administration listens to the community is another story. what are the biggest market risks? again, related to the it is whether it will be honestly done. the rate situation -- [indiscernible] >> that is a major consideration. haslinda: you are optimistic
9:49 pm
that the fundamentals are in place. how well can the philippine market go? who we think that we could 7500 level. the despite the considerations outside -- however, it is also critical that we look and plants from the new administration. gcc will be another story. -- i think added investors will somewhat like that. where should the new administration focus? >> power and energy.
9:50 pm
that is the most urgent need. candidatesth most that the peace and order situation needs to be in place, needs to be addressed. confident are you that the next president can unite the people? it will be difficult considering there are five political players, but -- presidential candidates. it will be difficult. we hope the administration will contribute and encourage filipinos after the election, rather than -- hopefully within the year, within the month -- haslinda: put the philippines in perspective in the region.
9:51 pm
been lagging behind neighbors although it is at record levels. how in the philippines to better than regional counterparts? basicneed to address problems, business, infrastructure, power and energy , bureaucracy, and corruption. eventually, if those are addressed, -- willnda: which candidate the market chair for? >> based on surveys, the leading candidate will be to most appreciated by most for business -- it is hard to say but if you look at the surveys, the leading adbidate has captured the -- so, i think it is either grace poe favorable to the
9:52 pm
market. haslinda: we have to leave it there. investors keeping a close eye on the philippine election. a lot at stake here. 6% economic growth. let's see what the peso ends. ishaad: will have more from the philippine election and a look at the latest buzz concerning social media. ♪
9:53 pm
9:54 pm
9:54 in manila. this is the outgoing president queue toeue -- the
9:55 pm
cast his ballot in the holy-contested election. propelled aske a the front runner. he has been causing waves with tough talk on crime and how he would deal with the traffic problems. there is a lot going on, not just on the ground, a lot taking place in social media. unsurprising. we know that the philippines is known as the most social nation in the world. userslion active facebook . this has been a campaign fought on social media. the current president getting ready to cast his vote. and that, he posted this on twitter.
9:56 pm
we are also hearing from large corporations in the philippines -- choose wisely. this sentiment of the wisely has ag.n a trending #-- hasht saying, know how to respect each other's choice. god bless the philippines. rishaad: this is in just casting the ballot -- he is just at the moment lining up to do that. so there we have it. looking at -- sorry about that.
9:57 pm
ubs saying credit growth in china -- the implications of that in the next hour. ♪
9:58 pm
9:59 pm
rishaad: this is "trending business." we are going to be alive in manila and sydney. wildfires could include production in canada and the new named.il minister more than 50 million people in
10:00 pm
the philippines are choosing a new president and lawmakers at national and local levels. betting heavily on the rebound for copper. we have a special report. let us know what you think about our stories on twitter. jakarta getting underway. a better start to the trading week. when it comes to tokyo --? reporter: a short trading week for japanese investors last week showing losses. but we are seeing gains on the today.to 25 -- nikkei 225 today.
10:01 pm
australia opened higher down by 4/10 of 1%. .ew zealand hold onto losses jakarta just coming online. up.a also weaker singapore hong kong's, -- hong kong, some gains on the hang seng index. we have seen some loyal players rise in crude. a true china leading the gains on the hang seng index. the philippine market closed today for the elections. as a whole, apart from some pickups in hong kong, we are seeing the oil and gas sector lower by 2/10 of 1%. basic materials also being sold off. we are seeing that weakness
10:02 pm
coming through in australian trade. both sectors up to the tune of half of one cent. oil has been the story of the day. we have a vision of the fires in canada which has been putting an upward trajectory onto the crude price. about one million barrels a day of output has been knocked out as the wildfires expand, leading cuts equivalent .o 40% of oil sands production also, we saw saudi arabia has named a new oil minister. a lot of analysts telling us the that should be good for outlook for saudi arabia and away from its dependence on oil because they appear to be walking the walk. having a look at the european wti also very solid -- up to present.
10:03 pm
rishaad: we will be back with oil in a moment. let's look at the philippines. 50 million people choosing a new president. the focus is on the presidency and in economy described as a rising tiger. is in the philippines. possibly the most in 40 years.tion 54 million filipinos will decide if they want changer continuity. color continuity. there are very few points in the polling separating the candidates. it is a rising tiger economy 6% average growth.
10:04 pm
lots of challenges ahead for fdi.economy in terms of it is already at record levels. it needs to create jobs. 10 million filipinos are still living and working overseas. beruption and crime needs to addressed. of the candidate has been roderigo to chart a pity is the changed thehe has city from a once upon a time -- a murder capital to one of the most a successful cities in the philippines but he has been very outspoken, seen as a leader who is a renegade. -- pretty much the character of dirty harry the , foura critical election or five hours since the polls started this morning. it is not just a
10:05 pm
presidential race. the vice presidential race is also getting attention. it is important because of one person, the son of the late dictator about the marcos -- imelda marcos. he is leading the polls in many are questioning if his weight will bring back a time of dictatorship. we will have more on the election later in the show. let's get to the oil market.
10:06 pm
crude on the way up. wildfires raging in the oil sands region and a new saudi --bia and making comments [indiscernible] freezethe prospects of a is unlikely unless iran is involved. of new minister is an ally prince solomont. unless iran output is involved. there were probably not be any freeze. the price has climbed up 15%. it is like an arranged moment. that is what people are pointing to. what is it going to take to get out of that range? guest: you really have to see
10:07 pm
u.s. crude stockpiles decline. that is keeping the cap on any increases. that $45 range is what is expected. we are at a level where -- if we hold -- rishaad: do we have any idea of what will change? guest: it seems like business as usual. the prince, looking at maintaining production in defending that market share to push the u.s. producers out of the market lessening their influence. 400,000 barrels or out of the market already this year. let's tell you about the other stories we are following today. honda has not
10:08 pm
confirmed the number of air .omes -- airbag recalls honda is planning additional recalls. that could cost $2 billion. ata beingows tak ordered to replace more than 40 billion devices. the bank of australia has declared a profit of 2.3 billion australian dollars. a joins competitors and reporting higher charges. bad debt charges rising to 427 million australian dollars. yet another indication of challenges. japan's money supply could
10:09 pm
overtake the u.s., having increased threefold. some traders say this chart indicates weakness in the yen is on the way. an economist predicted in 1996 and monetary expansion would result in a weaker yen, resulting in a decline over two years. later, a man with a plan, kim jong-un announcing a strategy. we have a special report from inside the state. also coming up, turning our focus to china. ♪
10:10 pm
10:11 pm
10:12 pm
rishaad: foreign exchange data from china pointing toward stabilization. reporter: everyone is looking for signs of stability in the chinese economy and we got to a degree. point 1%, theour second month in a row of rising outbound shipments. that is a number made prettier by the yuan appreciation. helpedr currency exporters be more competitive by chinese leaders are not banking on a boost from overseas demand for their recovery efforts. the premier saying, the economy still faces great downward pressure. domestic demand continues to be week. imports fell for an 18th consecutive month, down 5.7%.
10:13 pm
lower by near 11 percent in dollar terms. that helped bump the trade surplus up to a larger than forecasted $45.6 billion u.s.. china's foreign exchange reserve posted their first back-to-back monthly gains in two years, last year, china had to burn through half $1 trillion in reserves to defend the yuan after that surprised devaluation. last month, we saw some stability return as china's reserves rose by $7 billion to $3.22 trillion. fed holding off from raising rates. the central bank of china reiterated that he wants to keep the yuan stable. against the dollar, it has been -- virtually unchanged.
10:14 pm
the yuan against a basket of 13 currencies has weakened more than 4%, reflecting strength in the yen and euro. the yuan has been stable only in that it has marched in step with the dollar, weaker against other currencies. rishaad: yvonne man is with our next guest who says beijing is increasingly dependent on credit. that's right.
10:15 pm
the headlines say it all, china's dead reckoning cannot be deferred indefinitely. joining me is george magnus. thank you. about the debt crisis that could be looming underneath these financial triggers in china. use a credit growth is running at a faster pace than what beijing is suggesting? how will this play out? guest: as a lot of people know, the official data released that everybody follows is an aggregate that they called total social financing, which is running at about 12%. -- iu add on the bits .ean, it is not a secret these are officially-recognized statistics that they are not
10:16 pm
included in total social financing. then you are talking about a .umber that is twice as big instead of total social financing which is going twice , we areas nominal gdp talking about credit growth that is about four times as big. are we going to see something like a japan-style malaise? picture of that kind of crisis is the way in which the crisis manifests itself. in the west, it was bank failures. that is not going to happen in china. the manifestation of the crisis will be different. it will probably be quieter from the point of the of the rest of the world. the cost of the crisis is what is important. the cost could be a protracted time of lost growth.
10:17 pm
yvonne: is there a dollar amount? analystsople say -- say that the size of the bad loan problem in china is about .0% of total banking assets banking assets are about 300% of gdp pretty were talking about a problem that is about three i -- 3/5 of the gdp. probably be paid through a lot more recapitalization and locked growth. yvonne: but there is a speculation that the pboc will step in pdf obviously prioritized growth versus reform . couldn't they just flood that banking system with cash to make sure they are liquid? that is why i do not think you will see bank failures like you saw in 2008 in
10:18 pm
the west. not reelings are under any threat. the problem will be lower down the food chain. there will be pboc liquidity. is, we will see the problem manifests itself not on the asset side with banks declaring -- that will only come later. he will come on the funding side of the deposit-taking which the banks are in georgian in in more and more risky forms -- becoming vulnerable. yvonne: is this a short-term solution? it is a contribution to keep this problem at arms length , but the scale is too small. it would have to be a massive program.
10:19 pm
why would the pants actually want to do that is the question. yvonne: we see some stabilization in exports and foreign reserves. now that we see a little bit of, , you are still thinking this stock market is not what people should be worried about, it is the currency. is there stabilization in the currency? guest: a sensibly, that is right -- ostensibly, that is right. capital movements have been tightened up. it has been extremely fortuitous that in february, for example, it wasn't just china needed the dollar to back off. the federal reserve itself and the fmo's he was of the same opinion for purely domestic reasons. there is a miniscule percentage probability that the fed will raise the interest rate before the middle of the year.
10:20 pm
the market expectations later this year, of course, still very restrained, but that could change. it would be a mistake to assume that the federal reserve policy will be friendly to china and the rest of the world. i think everybody's breathing a sigh of relief but that is not a sign of confidence that everything is in order. link in thehe weak chain. yvonne: can the pboc afford to wait? guest: i do not think the pboc test the expectations previously were there for interest rates to come down. that doesn't exist at the moment. isause the economy responding to this credit stimulus which, remember, it's only a year old.
10:21 pm
onis coming through schedule. i think the economy will be ok for the time being and they can hold the line. should make haste while the sun is shining but as ando through the air, in q3 q4, we should not assume that things will be so quiet. please stick around so we can talk more. , thengoing to a brick coming back to talk about the boj and the braves it -- brexit. ♪
10:22 pm
10:23 pm
welcome back to "trending business." magnus.me now is george
10:24 pm
we talked about china in the previous segment. talk about the boj. kind of stuck in a hard place right now as shinzo abe says volatility is abrupt. could we see intervention? guest: i am not sure. it looks at the -- it looks a bit premature. wonder what did the energy policy board deliberations look like and what they have to do to weaken the yen. the balance sheet is exploding. japan soon, the bank of vastprobably own a majority of japan's sovereign debt. all of these things are possible
10:25 pm
policy options for the boj in the future but why do we think they would work any more successfully than they have done to date? you said between a rock and a hard place and that is exactly correct. i am not very optimistic that there is much the boj can do to have a decisive impact in influencing the year. it is much more up to the government. reserve was tol do will be very influential. is not in power to influence that. yvonne: investors have lost faith in central banks in general in terms of inflation. corporate?biggest -- corporate? -- culprit? guest: from an economic
10:26 pm
management point of view, a lot iteconomists would say that is just not the right time for the government. au are asking if they are you can lump them together with the european central bank, which is in a pretty similar situation of negative interest rates, who widening the asset purchases program. it is not really very effective. somebody will have to wake up and smell the coffee that this reliance on monetary policy is nonsense. it is taking the focus away from a governments should be doing. for talkingk you to us about china. ubsre still here at the global summit.
10:27 pm
swanext guest is andrew from black rock. we will talk about why he thinks e.m. is the way to go. rishaad: we are back after this. ♪
10:28 pm
10:29 pm
rishaad: a look at our latest story, the chinese date, showing to athe shanghai fell seven-week low. exports are down 1.8% in april almost 11%.plunged this is after week u.s. job data led to a fed rate rise. crude is rising as canada's wildfire spreads towards oil
10:30 pm
industries. of the region's usual production. and the canadian prime minister is expecting to keep the oil production and near market levels. president aquino is leaving the philippines. there is 33% of the vote for his opponent. japanese traders are heading off for their lunch break. let's see how your money is doing so far today. >> the regional indexes pretty flush at the moment, but we are seeing a big pickup in japanese equities. trading veryapan close to their golden week.
10:31 pm
break, ito the lunch is going up half of 1%. those that are trading higher really took that lead from wall street. that rate hike from the fed last june could have affected this and there is anticipation for a jobs report next friday. thee is a seven-week low on trade out here. this is affecting a number of equities come up putting them lower. in hong kong, things are looking a little bit debtor. open, weys they were had the hang seng and the hang seng china enterprise indexes at the lowest point so far. we have seen others move higher as we have seen oil prices
10:32 pm
bolstered by the wildfire in canada. has turnedia negative, down 4/10 of 1%. iailand, i mean taiwan, should say, pretty flat there at the moment. jakarta is continuing its downward crest by almost 1%. singapore is looking good up 9/10 of 1%. we have seen iron ore futures contracting in singapore by a .6%. the metal group is down 1.5%. 4% and of lower by course, we are also talking about profits that are flat there at the moment. and we are watching some of the property developers in hong kong
10:33 pm
as well. hong kong house prices could fall as much as 25%. they are seeing annual housing prizes to rise for families in the next few years. they are hoping to have people buy into the profit sector. home prices in hong kong has been an incredibly strong area for development. at theke a quick look oil price, it is up. ris? and more than 50 million people are voting for a new president, as well as lawmakers of those at the national and local level. this is asia's rising tiger. correspondent in manila now and how are things going where you are? well, pretty peaceful.
10:34 pm
we have people gearing up for the last hour and a half and of course, they are waiting very patiently. we had the outgoing president had a discussion early this morning at about 7:30 or so, and then we had the vice president, who is also a presidential candidate, who cast his vote. there have been no issues of violence but we are hearing that quite a number of people have launched protests and complained about potential vote rigging. this is happened in the lead up to the general elections. we have had reports going viral on the web suggesting that the -- the voters has been database of voters has been hacked into, however, we have no proof of that. that is a key point here.
10:35 pm
candidates with access to machinery pretty much must be the focus, as access to the local voting machines as these people have access to them. leading candidate has been leading at about 33% with his opponent behind him at 22%. seems like a renegade, and he has been very controversial with his comments about a rape victim. hisas very flippant with comments, prompting a lot of complaints from the u.s., australia as well. controversyseeing relating to grace pope -- grace poe, who gave up her citizenship
10:36 pm
to become an american citizen before coming back. all of these are affecting citizens for this election. rish? rishaad: in the system here, the vp also runs, separately. a little contention on that particular run. why? well, it is because the president who is the only son of the late dictator is leading and the vice presidential post, and you know, this generation is questioning why this is happening. take a look at the bulk of the voters. over 50% of the 54 million voters in manila are between ages 18 and 34. they have a different perception. they want to break away from conventional leadership. that is like the trump of the u.s.. strong,seen as a
10:37 pm
influential, charismatic leader. that is appealing to the young population. what is controversial here is there is fear that the election could lead to a dictatorship of the country and the outgoing president has been pretty vocal and has been seeking for the other candidates to come together, to unite, to make sure that marcos does not win the vice presidential race. rish? rishaad: a very hotly contested race playing out on social media. look at this.a heidi, what is going on? heidi: this is very influential in that young population of voters, so it is perhaps unsurprising that we are seeing a lot of reaction on social media. thes supposed to be one of
10:38 pm
most social nation on earth with millions of twitter users. aquino eted out before aquino tweeted out before "let's to the post, continue being there for each other, let's elect deserving public servants and together let's realize our country's dream of having a virtuous, corruption-free government." #votewisely hashtag has been trending. many people are saying be wise and know how to respect each other. there are also a lot of tweets saying to stay wise and they want to prepare for a peaceful election.
10:39 pm
are looking at tweets from voters who have taken pictures of their nails having been painted after voting. many of whom are experiencing their first presidential election. rishaad: thank you very much, haidi talib who is looking at social media. and many are going to the poll, officially in election mode. australia is also going and they will vote on july 2. let's head on down to sydney and the prime minister called this a few months ago and it would have probably been assured that but it is a lot -- what have probably been a sure bet but it is a lot different now, isn't it? >> that's right, that was when
10:40 pm
things were still fresh but things have since faded. there are a number of thought theyes on tax returns and have all been shot down. the government has looked pretty timid since malcolm turnbull has .ook over polls andg to the cleaning up both houses, the government is gambling that it hopefully withn, a better set of circumstances. rish? rishaad: what are the latest polls suggesting? 50-50 onlooks about the two party preferred, and so it looks pretty even on first blush, but it is not like that and the system is taken seat by
10:41 pm
seat. they need to win 19 seats or the government will lose 14 of them which would put them in a position to have to negotiate to stay in power. if you look at it that way, you can understand while the bookies -- understand why the bookies party.alcolm turnbull's as you say, this will be the longest campaign in australia since 1966. rish. rishaad: thank you very much, that is paul allen. in other news, the successor of glenn stevens will move forward and j.p. morgan may have to cut rates. that is after admitting that it will miss its co-inflation targets this year. singapore could join forces to
10:42 pm
combat money laundering. they are considering sharing information on prospective clients in a newly created registry. this is whether to approve applications for new accounts. singapore froze several bank accounts in an investigation of fraud in several bank funds. toshiba's next president will come from within the company despite the fallout from the accounting scandal there. tsunakawa will take over and he intends to narrow toshiba's sprawling operations. parky's new shanghai theme is proving popular even before its official opening. the company had a trial run and
10:43 pm
pulled in thousands of fans. for aad operations limited number of guests before the june 16 debut. it hopes to tap into china's growing middle class. next, despite all of the delays and challenges, tender has high hopes for its operations in man goalie up. we have a special report coming -- in mongolia. we have a special report coming up next. ♪
10:44 pm
10:45 pm
rishaad: here is a look at some of the stories making headlines around the world. been speakingas about taxes, saying his concern is giving the middle class a sizable break. trump outlined his strategy he discusseder but his plan in greater detail. the new mayor of london has promised to work with all
10:46 pm
es in the city, saying that he celebrates diversity. khan says he objects to marine le pen and donald trump. the aviation mogul is said to be living in the u.k. connected to the defunct kingfisher airlines. he is going to be extradited to charges.face how everything has been doing right now. last week, it suffered its first weakday loss because of
10:47 pm
demand from china. however, that a non-copper is a key group area. too longwas a time not ago when it seemed this moment might never happen. no memories of delays, disagreements, and deadlocks have been set aside. word to unlock the lions share -- lion's share of copper. marked the determination of many, many years of hard work , some blood, some sweat, and maybe a few tears. >> this was a largely symbolic in event. mongolia's prime minister guaranteed that they were looking at other things that were firmly in the past. >> we will no longer look at
10:48 pm
political rhetoric. we will only focus on growth. >> this is by far the biggest project ever undertaken in mongolia. beyond that, this multibillion-dollar expansion is also a huge bet on the long-term prospects for copper. needs of copper remain strong and production is when copperstart markets -- which is very good news. >> they are expected to produce more than 500,000 pounds of copper a year. it would be the third-largest copper mine in the world. real opportunity to expand their presence in copper and begin to minimize their leverage to iron ore. >> it is estimated that once complete, iron ore accounts for
10:49 pm
almost one third of mongolia's gdp, but that is a long way away from our country -- for a country facing immediate challenges including a looming general election. well, let's get more on all of this and go over to david stringer. david, how significant will this expansion actually be? hi, rish, well, you heard this third expansion is completed, it will be the third-largest mine in the world. rio will have a share of all of these copper mines at that point. that gives you an impression of the changing world for rio.
10:50 pm
it is accounting for the lion's share of their learning. they are obviously investing in this project and they know that the new incoming ceo, he takes his position next month. previously run the copy unit and he takes over from sam a welsh. he was a man grounded in the iron ore division. it is interesting that they are shifting focus from this giant mine in australia to the new copper project, chiefly in mongolia, but also in indonesia with the grassroots project there and also in the united states. rishaad: why would a company that has $5 billion invested in copper right now expand their? -- there? david: that is a good question.
10:51 pm
they have been pressured by demands, you mentioned that poor data out of china over the weekend. they would sell last month and that is the short-term story and one the producers expect to continue for the next couple of years. longer terme in the is the current copper supply is currently dwindling. the mines are aging and at the same time, demand will rise, particularly from the middle emerging across economies. people want air-conditioners, washing machines, they all require copper, and what i am end of is that from the this decade, that supply-demand balance will differ and they will be able to meet that demand. andaad: thanks for that, david stringer joining us from melbourne now. over the weekend, north korea went public with its plan for
10:52 pm
the next five years. we have a special report from on pyongyang.m ♪
10:53 pm
rishaad: north korea leader kim said he will not order a nuclear strike first and would only use such weapons if attacked. five-yearsed a
10:54 pm
economic plan, the first since the 1980's. it has had a stagnant economy powerans to improve supplies and agriculture as well as manufacturing. our reporter was in pyongyang for that seventh progress report and we look at how north korea has changed under kim jung-un n's new rules. the country exports some commodities, though far fewer trainingit's trading partner has created bands. but there have been notable changes. new buildings have sprung up. there are more cars on the road. and there are growing choices of shops and restaurants. taxit to ride in a city
10:55 pm
controlled by the government firms. public transport system has a scene minor upgrades. we are inside the pyongyang metro. it is big, it is grand, and many are reliant on it, but it isn't still using these old german trains. passengers can also now swipe in rather than relying on paper tickets. act on the city streets, there is evidence of a more significant technological upgrade. residents are avid smartphone users and they can choose from a number of different brands. selling a this store here supposedly produced in north korea. it costs around $400 and comes preloaded with an android
10:56 pm
operating system and comes with an apt including five versions of angry birds. as is also the case in north korea, inc.'s are not always what they seem. international calls are blocked here in north korea, and the only internet surfing you can do is on the government-controlled internet. for thisthat is it monday's "trending business." stay tuned for "asia edge." they are going to be hearing from black rock's head of asian stay tuned for "asia edge" coming up after this very short break. ♪ of the asianmiddle
10:57 pm
10:58 pm
10:59 pm
trading day and that is a live look out at victoria harbor there. we are seeing a little bit of a mixed day today in trading. we are live from hong kong and this is "asia edge." ♪ shery: the top stories this hour, oil is planned to come out at record levels and the new oil
11:00 pm
minister says that any oil trade must include iran. and one indicator suggests that currency could reverse its course. and rio is betting on a rebound of copper. we have a special report. also coming up in this hour, he is just one in 50 million out going to vote for the philippine president. we are live in manila where stocks are 5% down a from a 15 day high. let's get to the markets with juliet right now and, juliet, how are things looking? look at: just having a the w ti contract, they are up just 2% of the moment. they are holding a $45. the contracts are also rising. it has been given a boost by the new saudi oil minister announced over the weekend, up by 1.5 percent. the u.s. marke

32 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on