tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg May 10, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT
♪ betty: good afternoon. here's what we're watching at this hour. a thirdre rising for straight day. energy and industrial shares leading the gains. will the rally last? , he's portfolio manager keeping his strategy simple in the meantime. >> know what you own, make sure you understand, because getting it wrong has folks learned, it will remain very expensive. what are investors thinking about the timing of the fed rate hike? reporting their earnings in just one hour. do we already know the story?
or, areer results, there going to be any surprises? away fromut one hour the close of the trade, stocks hovering near the highs of the session. talking, third day of gains. julie: there is not really anything that changed or 24 hoursin the past yesterday. negative chinese 20 -- trade data. it is a pretty big rally on the economic catalyst. 100 89 points. by about 1% each. the volume is 13% below the 28 -- 20 day average. take a look at the imap. it has been the same handful of groups leading throughout the day.
materials, industrials, energy, and financials. technologyry and stocks are also gaining a bit today. the individual movers contributing the most to the s&p 500's gain our amazon at a record after the price target was raised to $1000 per share, and microsoft getting some steam, as is general electric. we have earnings movers trickling in, not just disney, but a couple of numbers out today, down at a business information and technology company, earnings beating estimates, international flavors and fragrances, and allergan not only coming out with earnings but saying it will be doing in up to $10 billion buyback once its sale of generics business is complete. oil is also a part of the story today as we see oil prices gain and they are at the highs of the
session, up nearly 3% on seeings that we could be in nigeria and libya. >> they're not moving as much. we are not seeing much movement here. little changed for the 10-year note. 1.7 6%.yield there at the dollar also, if you look for a specific currencies, gaining toward japanese yen, it is about flat today. also gold is pulling back a little bit in today'session. only up about .2%. stocks, agricultural commodities have been doing well , otherwise not a lot of movement. thank you. let's get a check of the
headlines. hillary clinton holds a commanding lead among delegates against rival bernie sanders. they have races next week in kentucky and oregon. holding primaries in west virginia and nebraska today. a super pac backing mrs. clinton is reserving an additional $5.3 million in advertising for the fall. that brings the general election plans to more than $130 million. the latest priority usa purchase black andmercials on hispanic radio stations in ohio, florida, colorado, and virginia. armying between the iraqi and militants today as part of the offense of against the city of muscle. thee and be seen on horizon, presumably the result of burning oil, a tactic used to
provide cover against coalition aircrafts. that -- he won his second straight most valuable player award. also the first unanimous choice in league history. .e returned the need the warriors beat portland 125 to take a three-game lead. global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. back to you. start off with the market for government debt or one aspect not moving as much today, 10 year treasury yields found loss nearly one-month lows ahead of sales this week including today. that soldemand earlier. 10 and 30 year debt offerings are set for later in the week.
my first guest says if you are the the treasury, now's a good time to be selling. head of fixed income. of the yieldmake in demand, which seems to be the highest in january. >> the strength of the three year note, most from domestic and foreign accounts, leads you to believe there is zero fear out there of a rise of inflation or even falling prices now. if you look at where the fed fund futures look, a 4% chance of a rate hike or treasury buyers looking for safety and in >> in, best investment, are finding it sure in the three year and likely will find it in the 10 year as well. if you compare the action today, you compare that to what we have heard from various fed
bitcials, are they a little too complacent? >> yes, i do not have so much a concern on the market and the quality of treasuries. my greatest concern is going further out and taking on more credit risk and that is where complacency lies right now. people are taking on more risk than i think they are. that a red flag? how do you view that? >> we have put these flags out before only to see them pull down as the economy has not found enough strength to give it fed some cover for raised interest rates. we may see some sneaky interest rates and the fed will not need much in terms of inflation to -- the green relight
green light, and i do think there is a little bit of what investors are missing now and it may come back to bite down later in the year. essentially what the bond markets are saying is there will be a slower path of fed rate perhaps what other economists and others are saying. even fed officials are saying themselves. if the treasury markets get caught a little flat-footed, will that cause another bond tension him, or are we talking about something much more muted? >> i think it is more muted but it can catch investors flat-footed, especially if they do not agree with the fed, which largely has been the case. it is to the point where the fed has come closer to what the market is thinking and the market coming to a the fed is. i think it will take a surprise move for a big taper tantrum
type of trade to occur. i do think there is something there, we are ahead of our skis a little bit at this point, but it may be the end of the year before we know that for sure. >> speaking about temper tantrums and the bond markets, is there anywhere you are looking around the world where you think there could be some sort of a tantrum like we have seen here in the u.s., like we is therein germany, anywhere outside of the united states where we should be watching as a hotspot? >> any emerging market countries are ones that have been great bounceback investments and have gotten pretty good returns. the concern is some of the prices have gotten a bit frothy, so in some of the emerging countries, we want to be careful continuing to pay up for bonds that could turn around and bite you, should we have a major move
or additional fallout. away from that, it seems stable and likely will be for the next month. betty: japan, could we see a massive selloff, is there a risk there? predict when to the rate rise will occur. stimulus andff the selloff. would cause a it is not there right now, i don't believe. know. you never the events pop out of nowhere and before you know it, we are scrambling. thank you so much, kevin, head of fixed income. mucks -- much more on bloomberg markets p private equity taking on too much risk? -- markets. private equity taking on too much risk?
that is your business flash update. private equity seeing lower costs of capital and lower costs of financing. the buying power of many private equity firms. majority stakes in print -- cable.like searchlight capital founding father -- explain his firm's investment strategy. focus on having a top-down approach. we like to invest and figure out themes that might make sense. you mentioned equipment acres. low growtheme with a and environment, government might be incentivized to invest more infrastructure and encourage housebuilding. a create a lot of other jobs. they increase the long-term competitive nature of the country.
the u.k., the government has been very focused on housebuilding. industries that would benefit from that. up try to finds equipment rental companies and through that effort, we found two different diseases we acquired and now we are operating as a platform and trying to require more companies in their to build scale. you hopefully have purchase synergies. hadrty was a theme we around communications. data communications is proliferating around us. everyone on smart, people used to watch video on our phones. it ultimately means that are networks and better pipes to get all of the consumers. we have broadband looking at cable assets. it has phenomenal capacity to carry data appeared as a result,
we have investments in liberty, both fantastic broadband platforms. classic makes a lot of sense but why is that not fully valued? a lot of people are interested in the area. classic comes that's what we said earlier. you have got to find an element of complexity that allows you to potentially invest in those businesses. , we of those cable examples partnered with a corporation to help them make an acquisition. in puerto rico, we put in capital and ultimately have on cableted the market operators, with liberty as the partner. our capital went in and held finance mobile operator, which created a communications platform. talked about the fact that the market is very crowded and valuations have been moving up. looking around the world, are some companies offering better opportunities?
>> we are looking at north america and europe. i cannot comment on emerging markets. over the last four or five years, valuations have been high but the u.s. has had that are underlying growth. the u.s. has been growing anywhere from 2% to 3% annually, while in europe, we have been living around at 0% to 1%. we find a lot more political upheaval in the last few years between every year, a different crisis. another one this july. grexit coming up. a trading bloc that represents close to 50% of exports to a lot of that creates uncertainty. you are not necessarily getting paid for that. that is now changing a little bit. >> people just do not think it will happen? >> maybe. but it is very dangerous to be smug about that. ishink a lot of the polling tight but ultimately, it will depend on turnout in the u.k. in
terms of who wins the referendum. the older people who tend to be pro-exit often be much more loyal and the other people who tend to be more pro-eu. i think there is a reasonable bit of risk that it could go very differently from what people think. speaking earlier on bloomberg . will be, bloomberg tv speaking with david rubenstein of the carlyle group life from the conference in las vegas. that is an exclusive interview only on bloomberg television. still ahead, today's options insight. plus, at the bottom of the hour, amazon shares hit $1000? that is what one analyst is saying. we will be back. ♪
betty: stocks are rallying for a third straight session. on pace for prospective gains in a month. julie hyman is standing by with how the options market is trading. you.: thank with me right now to talk about the options insight is allen, chief strategist at bull's-eye options out in chicago at the cboe. the vix. slump in is it five straight sessions we have seen the vix going, and yet they're still feared -- it still feels like, even though we are rallying, there is underlying sentiment problem. are you seeing that still expressed in the options market? >> fear is a natural emotion. stocks may do lows last week, it did not punch
about that 17, so we saw bullish diversions and since that time, the market bounced back, showing the sellers were may be a bit tired. thanmorning, we had more call buyers, which usually does not happen. that changed at noon. now there is more on the session. heavy volume here today. that is interesting there is heavy volume because overall, you look at the major averages and regular cash trading, and you are not seeing heavy volumes going on today. what does that imply for the coming days? >> people want to protect themselves just in case something happens. of ansk is always explosion that could happen from anything. they want to buy that protection and be there just because we have got prices at relatively low levels. let's keep an eye at 1250. that is the next level of support. julie: we will be watching it
appeared after the trade today, you are at least a moderate twitter bowl, which is not something you hear a lot about these days. before we get to the trade, explain to me why you're looking at twitter with more of a bullish view. >> it is about time and probability, this is taking advantage of stock. volatilitylows, remaining high. .ower-level the choice is i want to buy when he gets down to 1375. or you can sell a way to get into the stock. you have the money in your account to buy the shares for each option you sell. you will be buying the shares lower or if the option is worthless, you keep the freemium. the exact structure of the
trade you're talking about? about a 70% probability of success. i would be long for $14 if the strike at below that exploration, but i'm taking in $.60 to do that. to 1340. my cost $1340 in my i have account, a way to buy the stock it looked it is now, -- all-time lows, or a 5% return on risk in a time of 30 days. you're counting on volatility working in your favor and the worst-case an area of is i'm buying the shares lower but comfortable and looking for a long-term recovery. thank you so much. interesting trade on twitter and perspective on the broader market today. good to talk to you as always and get perspective from chicago. we see stocks rally today to the highs of the session. their.we do and holding
still ahead, disney earnings are coming out after the bell. ?an the company keep ringing up --l the business bring up movies, captain america civil war is in theaters right now. if you are a bull here in the markets today, you are doing just that. the dow is up 207 points. nice to be higher by 1%. some are pointing to the rally of oil prices helping things along. we will see if that holds when we get to the close. ♪
news desk. president obama will make history this month when he travels to japan. he will become the first sitting american president to visit hiroshima, where the u.s. dropped an atomic bomb 71 years ago during world war ii. a white house aide says the president will not apologize for the bombing. hasnikkei new services japanese prime minister shinzo abe may consider a visit to pearl harbor. ted cruz says he will "respond accordingly" if he wins the impressive primary and season after the nomination. cruz dropped out of the race a week ago. on his chances to win, he said "i am not holding my breath. my assumption is that will not happen." nomineecourt merrick garland has submitted a response to a questionnaire on his experience. the questionnaire is a standard
early step in the vetting of any judicial nominee. after today, judge garland will have met with 15 republican senators. several demonstrations against the impeachment of president dilma rousseff blocked roads across brazil today. in são paulo, tires were set on fire on a highway that leads to the airport. the active leader of the lower house of congress reversed a controversial decision. the decision would have funneled a key vote in the impeachment process. it is up to brazil's senate, which votes tomorrow whether to put president rousseff on trial. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2000 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i am a mark crumpton. betty, back to you. betty: markets are closing in 30 minutes time. are we going to hold this rally or not? abigail doolittle is standing by. abigail: only in the next 30
minutes it will tell us whether or not the rally will hold that we are seeing nice games, games that have accelerated throughout the session. nasdaq is on pace for its third game in a row, best winning streak in more than a month, with the index on pace to finish at its best close in over a month. it is strength in amazon on bullish analyst comments and it asks for a broad-based tech rally that includes other names like facebook, netflix, and alphabet. behind amazon, netflix is the best on the day. a the iran next, since netflix is the worst on -- a bit ironic, since netflix is the worst on the year. most recently, netflix did guide down for the second quarter. a bloomberg intelligence analyst says that the risk to the is thats going forward international growth does not offset slowing growth in the u.s. interestingly, when we take a look at netflix and the chart with amazon, we are seeing the
first real divergence or separation between these 2 stocks. i was, of course, fascinated by this and reached out to idg research, who correctly called the second quarter guide down, to ask whether or not we could be seeing a decoupling here. his answer is yes, i think we probably are seeing a decoupling. this is interesting to watch as the year plays out. betty: all right, but the tech strength does extend beyond these names, right? abigail: the best-performing stock today is to devise or come up 5%, also having its best day or on pace to have its best day in about three months. it appears much of the internet stock strength is behind it. it could also be a rebound from the company's this point first-quarter report. on the year ago, betty, we have trip advisor down come with today's rally changing that very little. betty: thank you so much,
abigail doolittle at the nasdaq could disney's results are out after the bell today. the movie studio has been strong this year, continuing its stellar performance with "captain america: civil war" and "the jungle book." what about the rest of the media giant? is an media adviser who has a buy rating on disney. brian, a lot of the questions will be on their cable business. is there too much pessimism on the cable side of disney? brian: yes and no. the reality is the business is than theworth more company has implied. they don't provide guidance but they are trying to put a positive spin on it and yet there are negative undercurrents. in contrast to any other business from any other industry, any other planet, it is a spectacular business in terms of its absolute size,
absolute growth, absolute profitability. betty: how much of it is priced into the stock, do you think? brian: that is exactly the point. it is priced in and one of the reasons i upgraded it. headwinds.eal shaving real cord -- not cord cutting, but cord shaving, which will impact their growth. will happen with disney? brian: the 2 variables that have the most impact on the cash flow, ultimately -- i think the theme parks business, no shortage of questions one could ask but even they don't necessarily know the answer around the health of the chinese consumer and how that will impact that business. it will be a potential significance as far as proven in the year ahead but that is a bit of a wild card. andy: it is unpredictable,
what seems predictable is that the cable business is in a decline. maybe not as bad as some people originally thought. but given that predictable trajectory, brian, does the company need to do something much more than just rely on the theme parks and movies to offset that? brian: no, well can identify think that the parks and movies terms ofvery far in offsetting the business. let's be clear, it is not declining. it is just diminished growth relative to where everyone thought it was. the company could talk with more color around the advertising side of the business. i think they have downplayed and diminished that but that is a strong underlying business at this moment in time. at the same time, more color around how growth and programming expenses are going to perform going forward. they have given some color around that and that is where investors will focus. betty: what about more color
around bob iger and his future, who replaces him? brian: yeah, don't expect we will get any useful commentary on that today. obviously, it matters. there are few people who are as well regarded in the investment community as a biker. to the extent as bob iger. to the extent he is not going anywhere, will not be run over by a bus anytime soon, investors will be reasonably comfortable. that said, we do want to know what the succession process is and how the board is looking at successors but we don't expect any answers at this point in time. betty: no, although there is a lot of speculation, brian. if you put your money down, with a go for an external candidate, and who? brian: so hard to say. assessing that -- it is really important to understand the internal politics of the thenization, not least how board is interacting with
different managers. and you can frustrate of the managers to submit ability to them that -- who can persuade the managers to submit authority to them. the internal constituents and the external constituents, the board versus operational relationships you are managing. has a brian wieser, who buy rating on the stock. this might be the mother of all by ratings. forget 10, 20, 30% returns. amazonlyst raised his price target to $1000, representing a 47% climb from where the stock closed on monday. is a bloomberg stocks report, julie verhage. amazon may be trading at an all-time high today one
analyst says it can go up to $1000, the highest price target on wall street. i believe jpmorgan had the highest before so this is even substantially higher than that. buty: surely some llish sentiment here. what is behind this call? julie v.: wall street in general is bullish on amazon. a lot of different things the margins are getting better. amazon west services from something we don't see that much , is having substantial growth. look in the mailroom and your apartment, you see the amazon prime boxes all over the time. prime has continued to expand. amazon at $1000 from what does that mean for the company? how many trillions of dollars are we talking about here? julie v.: you look at the investment conference last week and a popular vc said he thinks it could be a $3 trillion company within 10 years and
yesterday when he closed it was billion company, so that's massive growth from where it was right now. betty: we just had a chart -- guys, let's show that it -- about amazon reaching $1000 before alphabet. there is a possibility for that, judging by this call here. put amazon in the context of its peers. julie v.: amazon keeps expanding. jeff bezos has been known to look at new business ventures. he has a lot of cash on hand. that is something that in the note said could be a bad thing in a way. betty: that is kind of the apple problem right now. so much money, where are you going to put it? julie v.: do you buy back shares or dividends? betty: exactly. the biggest driver sounds like the amazon cloud service. julie v.: something we don't really talk about that much. when i think of amazon, i think of amazon prime, because me and my friends, we are all prime
time for the bloomberg business flash, the biggest business stories in the news right now. job openings in the u.s. have risen to the second highest level on record. according to the labor department, the number of jobs that need to be filled rose to 5.8 million in march. the moderate rate of dismissals indicates that the demand for workers remains steady. freeport-mcmoran is going to play nova corp. more than half $1 billion not to use a pair of its drill sticks. terminating the contract as part of the effort of the biggest publicly traded copper miner to cut costs. it is also scaling back its energy business, looking to sell oil and natural gas assets. and ice cream chain dairy queen says it will switch to cage free eggs in the u.s. and canada. the company is owned by warren buffett's furniture hathaway. the transition is scheduled to be completed by the end of 2025. that is your bloomberg business
flash update. while rose in today's session after falling one and 2% on month -- oil rose in today's session after falling more than 2% on monday. miss"am at "what'd you will be talking about this later in the next hour and cohosted joe weisenthal is with us now. you will sort out what is going on in the oil markets. joe: the funny thing is that there is all this talk about supply disruption and obviously, the fire in canada is the biggest one. although oil is up today, the rally happened before all this talk and people have been talking about supply disruptions but we stalled out at these levels. the question is why hasn't all this supply disruption pushed the price of oil of further? that is one topic. betty: what are people saying to you about why that is? joe: the price moves and before the fundamentals catch up so
they believe that it is temporary, we already seen a big rally. oil has had a massive rally since the february lows so perhaps this national breather. we have seen a selloff and other risky areas of the market, whether it is concerns about high yields or perhaps the fact that oil is staying where it is, sort of a stealth rally. yet i think a lot of -- yet, a lot of debate about where it is going. sachs, hee of goldman has been under the view for a while that rising oil prices will turn on more u.s. production. betty: does he have a price level when that happens, when producers come back online or start to wrap up? joe: talk about the $50 level, but we will see where he is today. betty: we have heard that before, the $50 price tag seems to be significant. what are the factors people are telling you about what is going
to affect oil going forward? we are watching reforms coming out of saudi arabia, right? joe: saudi arabia is the big thing. we have been talking about it a lot on the show. if you right is don't expect saudi arabia to do anything to dramatic to curb production especially with the imminent or possible ipo of saudi ramco. there is no particular reason to say that we are floating this company. it will have investors right now. the moves in terms of reforming the ministry are very interesting but no one expects any meaningful pullback. betty: indeed. joe, good to see you. thank you so much, joe weisenthal, cohost of "what'd you miss?" his show is coming up next and tune into his conversation with jeff korea: sex one o -- with jeff currie of goldman sachs. much more ahead on "bloomberg markets." the close of trade is moments away.
betty: this is "bloomberg markets." i am betty liu. 10 minutes closing of the session hybrid julie hyman has more in your markets check. julie: we have stocks closing of the highs, it looks like, and if you are a bull, that would be encouraging to you, one would think. the dow in particular of nearly 217 points. we have seen the rally just build and build and build throughout the day. the s&p 500 has continued to come if highs steadily you look at the intraday chart. that has been happening through the course of the day. pretty gradual but straight line upwards here. not seeing any hiccups, really, in the rally throughout the day.
the rally we have seen through the past three days for the s&p 500 has sparked a new record high with big movers in the s&p 500. which we were just talking about is at a record today. about $700. facebook also rising to a record today. pepsi-cola and mcdonald's, as the company continues with its turnaround. we have other records to talk about as well, whether you are looking at kraft heinz, austria, and lockheed martin, certify -- sort of a diverse group of different stocks at that level. there is one stock that is decidedly not on the record, at least not a record high. solar city is down 22% after coming out with its latest earnings report, and the really, there were a host of different issues the company came out with. it cut its installation estimates for the third time in the past seven months and announced the loan program for residential solar customers but
it has been changing that loan program overtime. one analyst over at robert baird on the conference call said what is solar city? wall street is confused about your business model, there has been a lot of question about the debt model the company as well, the way it does its accounting. there has been a lot of different questioning. solar has already been a troubled industry. stocks are down over the past year. betty: they were a favorite of hedge funds. julie: they were a favorite of hedge funds. and yet that, too, had a complex structure, a number of yield .odes, as they are called it is not necessarily that the fundamental business of solar is in trouble. but it seems to be the structure and the execution of some of these individual companies that is creating issues. betty: that is creating some issues and creating some pain for a lot of the shareholders. truly, thank you so much, julie
hyman, at the markets desk. i want to bring in joe ciolli. what is going on in the markets in the final moments of the session? joe, before we look into the theraged etf's, we started show talking about the three-year option, three-year treasury auction. the yields were low. it was some of the highest demand you have seen since the beginning of the year. and there is a different outlook among bond investors and stock investors here. joe c.: yeah, that is an interesting point. you would think that with the rate hike pushed off probably until next year or late this year, people would be piling more into stocks and that these instruments the profit from higher rates. but investors are looking for a place to put their money right now. there is a lot of money on the sidelines. as we will cover with these etf's, a lot of money, a lot of bearishness underlying the
market and people not looking to get long and even though the market is doing pretty well over the last several months. betty: seems that way. talk to us about these leveraged etf's. what are we seeing here? the inverse etf that profit from the decline in stocks, it exceeded the long ones for the first time since 2013, and other the services makes absolutely no sense. you would think that people with the market increasing as much as it is today and with the last it would be the long instruments that are attracting the most money. something keeps coming up, this undercurrent of bearishness. the market cannot get behind this rally. in a strange way, this is actually helping the rally because pessimism is causing people to get short and then have to unwind and cover the shorts, which drives the market. a really interesting attribute
of these leveraged etf's is the carry cost is so high that you need to nail it in one or two days. if you are wrong, you lose your money and then you either double up or you cut your losses, which drives the market up. the chart yet from you showed that people are clearly willing to keep doing that. there is conviction here. why are you not seeing that expressed in, essentially, bigger declines in the market? joe c.: never underestimate the confidence of these investors. they think they can make investing in these etf and get it right into today or tomorrow. they have been wrong and need to have enough capital to spread around and hedged appropriately where they can afford to maybe take a bath for a couple days. it really has been a losing bet, and you have seen it in volatility products as well that basically function as an inverse instrument and everyone has been wrong with those bets. they keep piling in. betty: have we seen this before,
this piling in of what happened afterwards? last.: if you look to the time these leveraged etf's for at this level versus the long ones from that was 2013, and here we are in 2016. it clearly didn't derail anything that and the people doing that then were wrong. it is possible we continue seeing this kick the can down the road type of mentality. betty: interesting. thank you so much, joe ciolli of bloomberg news on the leveraged etf's. " what'd you miss?" and the market closes next. the team is looking at oil and we are also awaiting earnings from disney and electronic arts. here are where the major averages are trading. ♪
alix: u.s. stocks rising around the world. the dow jones jumping 200 points. bearish sentiment pares back. joe: the question is, what'd you miss? scarlet: we ask goldman sachs' jeff currie what happens to metal prices. realplus, the brazilian rallies as the impeachment of dilma rousseff gains momentum. ide,: and on macy's s there's demand an week -- week demand and fierce competition. scarlet: u.s. stocks are gaining more than 1% and the dow up more than 200 points and the major s&p 500 groups are higher today. if you look at it on an individual basis, this is the dow and s&p's best day since 11