tous: you're welcome "countdown." anna: breaking news. manus: let's get into it. miss.ue, it is a 13 billion euros, the market was looking for 13.2. formarket was looking less, almost doubled a negative number the market was looking for on organic volume. china, the market their declining by 3% or 4% stop eastern europe is an important part of that story. eastern europe is under pressure. contracts, eastern europe has declined by mid-single-digit percentages. the western beer market is
flat. deutsche first quarter beating estimates, revenue that was missing those estimates. they have confirmed their full-year view. the 2013-20 operating profit target. interesting to see how this business is managing to cope with a boom in parcel delivery because of online retailing and how that is offsetting any declined in their letter delivery business. dominant male carrier in germany that is increase their postage prices at the beginning of the year. internet, they also own the dhl express and majestic's brand. rosen will be speaking to the "on the move" team. manus: let's talk a little bit
about spending. this is a huge engineering trend, oil transport is their business. at 30.36by some 7% billion. that turns it around from a loss of 719 million. let's look at the 2020 targets. target of cost reductions of 250 million euros per anum. flips it around from a loss. they're confirming the 2020 targets. when it comes to sales level, the is a leg -- big, above 6.7 billion that was out in terms of the estimate. afine set of results for
business that the 70% with you in europe. 17.9% of its business and asia. anna, your limit of a -- you have a little bit of allianz. anna: we are getting comments on that part of the business. they havebe crucial, been struggling to stem the outflow from pemco over the last few years. the assetso reverse under management. outflow peaking following the resignation of the ceo. always interesting to talk to this type of business above the low interest rate environment and how they are managing to cope with that, and the
competition. interesting to look at the details of their numbers, talking my third party profit falling. that is compared to december the 31st. they give us some guidance for full-year operating profits. so, some guidance on the feature and some comment about outflows coming through from that company. now, speaking life to the "on the move" team coming up in terms of these earnings. quickly, let's pull up the risk radar. since januaryyen maybe a little bit overdone. little bitlike a excessive. the dollar index, despite goldman sachs talking about that going up. the new zealand dollar, that has been moving around about half a percent this morning. downward speculation of interest
rate will be cut. we have goldman there is well. manus: we have indeed. it is interesting, how they all deliver. let's look across to rishaad, good afternoon, good morning from dubai. presidenthe brazilian is facing what could be her last day in office as the senate is gearing up for an impeachment vote that would force her out. major new suggesting the president needs more than 50 votes than a simple majority. donald trump's won the north virginia primaries. name was still on the ballot in nebraska and had hinted that he might we enter the contest if he had performed well. bernie sanders is projected to win west virginia.
goldman sachs says the dollar slumped is over. after her dog -- poor jobs data. increases have fallen too far, too fast, the bank estimated dollar will advance 15% are in the next two years. it is dependent on the normalization of monetary policy in the u.s. more than half a britain thinks the only to curb immigration is for the u.k. to vote to leave the european union and the next months referendum according to a poll. of people backing brexit say it is the only way to cut immigration. who want to remain in the bloc feel the same. greek stocks could be one of the
best bets among western european markets. that is according to jpmorgan, economic reality will soon rein in the exuberance that the stock index says. this is at odds with morgan stanley which recommended shares of the country's lenders following other bullish calls. global is 24 hours at a powered by more than 2400 journalists and 150 news bureaus around the world. thank you very much. the equity market session. all the other asset classes moving around. shery has details for us. that seems sentiment to be easing now with that rebounded commodities. gaining forg shares
third consecutive day up half of a percent. there now at a two-week high. also ginny for fifth consecutive session. in thelook at stocks philippines, up 3%. after roderigo claimed victory in the presidential race. we are seeing that they are experts missing estimates this morning falling more than 15%. china coming back from its lunch break, take a look at the shanghai index up .7%. the hang seng is falling almost as much. chinese stocks trading in hong kong have had a tough week. their resuming losses again today as we see them decline for the seventh time in 8 days. south to korea -- south korea is also declining. worth mentioning, we are reaching the peak of a japanese
earnings is season. that will impact some companies there. look atg more than 14%, that after the profits beat estimates. thatforecasted dividends beat estimates, but their quarterly profit is not looking great. falling a halfan a percent. they had to book ¥11 billion that was huge in the fourth quarter. is japanese yen strengthening again today after two days of losses. manus: there with the latest in hong kong, union credit ceo has faced a torrent of questions over the capital strength. that after lending growth led to an erosion of the buffer in its
first quarter. now, he is not worried about union credit's financial strength and he is confident the lender will meet its 2016 earnings targets. he spoke to uber tv in milan. -- bloomberg tv in milan. >> we keep working to improve capital. plan and a later six-month figure. we traded capital organically, much more than any other banks. we continue in this way. the plan was to have an capitality to prove our , and disposing business but not enough. we never gave any number that was as a good. there was a reason to say that. meanwhile, the bank swung
it's a loss, after its increase provisions for bad loans to comply with the ecb's requirements to gain approval. don't -- joining us now to talk about the banking and low , thank you for joining us. how are you looking at the banking sector at the moment? we have had a number of banks beating estimates. i suppose estimates were pretty low going into this earnings season. chris: it has been a very tough year for the banks. 7-8s amazing that after years since the worst of the credit slump we're still in the situation where the banks in europe are very much in recuperation mode. it is rather reminiscent of japan in the late 90's that we seem to have a zombie bank problem. there are some actions being taken.
that takes is on to interest what people are concerned about implications of negative interest rate. the margins of the banks are being squeezed further. morning, one of the things that caught my eye this morning is bowls -- bubbles. sergio yesterday come before me this is a seismic shift in thinking. they may pass negative rates very rich clients. if it impacts business, people of the start paying for banking. we have a lovely bart chart, bubbles, the general mortgage chart is on fire. chris: indeed. this is the thing which worries central banker so much about the sorts of policies. it does tend to lead to
misallocation of capital. that is clearly a concern right now. it will be interesting to see if we finally get to the point where these negative interest rates to start to get passed on to noncorporate customers. so far, we haven't really -- we talked about it, we understand it's hypothetical insistence -- existence, but it does not impact anyone's lives at the moment. it hasn't really reached through until -- into the consumer bag. there are places that central banks that have just dipping into negative rates and experimenting with negativity, places they can look for to learn a few lessons about how this has gone for others. for example, denmark, they have had them for four years. the relationship between interest rate and inflation, does it look broken? years in denmark, the
inflation picture is not been picking up. people are asking if the profitability of some of the banks in this region is not so bad, but not necessarily having the intended consequences. thes: this really is conundrum, potentially, facing central bankers. we've already seen the bank of japan and european central banks putting their hand in the fire with negative interest rates and getting their fingers seriously burned in terms of initial market reaction. the consequences of those seem to be the opposite. that has always been made people wary. the bottom line is, negative nominal interest rates are a lot more questionable in terms of dire benefit -- their benefit. with a negative real rates, that is what the yuan is potentially going to get in the next few months. that is probably the u.s. trump card, they can allow inflation
to rise. all they have to do is sit pat and not raise interest rates. this much better combination. i think that is probably the biggest thing in favor of the u.s. economy right now. anna: no doubt we will talk about the u.s. more. only a 4% chance of a rate hike in june. ♪ manus: i know that is your favorite function, let's get up to speed with some highlights of the day. will they u.k. time, we get a snapshot of the u.s. property market with the mba mortgage applications. brazil's, could this be the big one? congress will vote on the impeachment of their president. then, britain's chances that george osmond will be questioned by the house of commons treasury committee. about a report warning about permanent economic damage on brexit. bloomberg customers can watch that on live go. also coming up later
manus: welcome back to "countdown," looking at a glorious dan hong kong where unfortunately the hang seng is down. let's the bloomberg business flash. areaad: disney shares falling in extended trading. the tv network struggled in the u.s. dollar hit profits from star wars merchandise. a onel be looking for
dollar 40, to gaze unit marks a retreat from efforts to make console games. the theme park is ahead of disneyland to shanghai opening next month. office depot after a federal judge agreed with prosecutors saying it would create an unrivaled giant. shares are down 10% after hours. office depot plunging some 26%. better revenue and profit from south asia operation for next year, the bank is recovering from making record provisions in india. a $981 million loss last year. additional bloomberg business flash, back to you guys -- that is your bloomberg business
flash. anna: today could be the last day in office for the president. brazil will hold a vote that may force her out and into impeachment trial that she looks unlikely to win. former brazilian bureau chief, who has been following this story closely. the president is pushed into an impeachment trial, what happens next? it will be a long day debate -- long debate first, isn't it? it'll finish at about 7:00 local time post of this could be her last day in office. they need a simple majority to start the impeachment trial. she would need to step aside, local newspapers have a have north of 50 votes. anybody's guess as to what could happen. we have some legal hurdles that came up earlier this week. everything seems to be back on track in that sense.
even when she is gone, and need to come back with a second vote. this will play out for some days. big one. is a this could be her last formal day in office. investorsind us how have been reacting as the impeachment of the president is looking forward. andrew: it is somewhat of a counterintuitive point, brazilian local in terms of dollar is up this year. that is the best return in the world. investors are betting that we have had five months of uncertainty and not knowing where brazil is going. let's get this behind us, and move on. the problem is, brazil is in the deepest recession in 100 years at least. the man who will succeed you might has questions about his own political conduct. there are huge challenges ahead. it may be the case to begin a
short-term bump with more certainty. then we will see where the country goes. it has endless challenges, all of the people in poverty that enlisted out of it in a decade ago will be very upset about this. we have seen a lot of protests in the streets. i think it is early to say whether this is the end of something, or just the start of a new phase. anna: andrew, thanks for a much. with what is happening in brazil, with a still on set, chris, give us your thoughts on what is going on in brazil at the moment. i was drawn to some comment in your notes this morning that suggested this really is not the way to build consensus around reform. there will be protests, it seems. chris: as you just heard, very much in the opening. you're not seen a play out with the situation.
to be an extremely acrimonious process. it already is. we will have to move on to what happens next. it is not really clear at all that there is going to be a good platform for reform. when i look at brazil after that, in the context of its own. so far, what you have seen is a rally in emerging-market assets generally. brazil has caught everyone's attention because everyone looks for a deep valley situation. you have both in brazil. after that, we say what comes next? what would be the best way to play emerging markets? it may not be brazil, that begs a nice question, where would you prefer to play, and which asset class? the bonds have outperformed dramatically relatively to some of the currency volatility, haven't they? right.absolutely
after the rallies, what do we know, we clearly know that there intome hope baked brazilian asset prices. there actually was in that three or six months ago. it is the point of other -- utter evil jim. .- evulsion thatgives it legs, probably does depend on, broadly speaking, a couple of things. we would like to see continued stability in the commodity markets. anna: that takes us into this chart. chris: it is beginning to look that way, the technicals have been improving. for emerging markets, and in conjunction with commodity market. yes, we've had the golden cross
welcome back, this is "countdown." breaking news, the german energy incomeey underlying net was better than the estimates. it comes with some caveats, they say that the improvement is due to the agreement, and their earnings would have declined without that. make a expecting them to one-time adjustment for natural gas contact. the agreement ended a two-year to cancelenabled eon
some provisions that it made in earlier years. enabling some upside to the earnings picture. the firston generally shifted its field and trading into a separate company. it wants to listen that business. look for anyugust, further details coming through from that. there talking with the transformation process, making progress. this is going to make it -- look like a very different business. it will be going into that other listing, and eon will look much more renewable. will bee ceo of eon talking to "the pulse." sticking with germany, numbers from the metro german retailer, or food and electronics first of is also a company that is due to
split in two, incidentally. there talking what a pretax loss savings of berries items. that was against 89 million the previous year. loss, 57 million versus 67 million lost the previous time. is one,he sales number 13.6 billion for second-quarter sales, that is broadly in line with estimates. revenue meeting estimates on strong germany sales and confirming that for your guidance. rishaad has the first word news for us. : the brazilian president is facing what may be her last day in office. it is an impeachment trial that she looks unlikely to win. the opponents have at least 50 votes, more than a super majority they need to move
toward impeachment. donald trump has won the west primary, a week after driving his competitors out of the race. still on theme was ballot and had hinted he might reenter the contest if he performed well. bernie sanders is a projected winner in west virginia. it would be his 19th state victory, but just has 37 delegates up for grabs. goldman sachs says the dollars a slump is over. sulump's slumo i -- is over. fast,g too far and too position in the currency for a rebound. during the next two years, the u.s. normalizes monetary policy. if you haven't benefited from a
rebound that is taken place in it is aocks this year, bad among western european markets and this too late to join in according to jpmorgan. he says that an agreement on that relief is the economic reality and will soon rein in the exuberance. and thes at autoblog morgan stanley would last week oddsmended shares -- at with the morgan stanley which last week recommended shares. mother -- more stories if you go to bloomberg top . manus: let's get the very latest now. helped by stronger metal prices. what is going on? nejra is here.
nejra: a lot of focus on commodities today first of we're seeing metals rebound after losses this week and last week on concerns about china. i have the industrial index metal index rebounding, this tracks returns not prices. this index has rebounded about 9% since dropping the lowest since 2004 in january for the different comments from mining ceo's on the outlooks on metals. is set toaid demand exceed supply. some say the worst may be over for commodities. colin the bottom is brave. whatever position you take, we're seeing these metals revo bound today. we are seeing gold up today. this quarterear, was it's -- the first quarter
this year was its best sense 1980. it was just the beginning of a rally, and goldman sachs has also raised its 3, 6, and 12 month forecasts for gold, but all of those are below the current price. bearishtaining its outlook. theirn economists cut predictions over the next 12 months. , goldman thought about also saying the dollar slumped is over. that brings me to dollar yen, we're seeing the yen gaining on speculation. it is getting is all but one of its 16 major peers, and finally sticking with tokyo in some ways. tokyo listed exchange traded funds that cap brazilian shares. 4%, aftered more than
brazil's benchmark search yesterday ahead of the brazilian senate voted today on whether to impeach their president. in japanck volatility as overtaken pricing in china as the shanghai market has flatlined. charttake a look at our of the hour. manus: volatility takes on a whole new meaning. shanghai is down, let's take those price ranges and talk about volatility. this is what i want to show you, we have on the white line you have the topics 30 day volatility. line.s trumping the blue the topics volatility is ratcheting higher. the difference, it is the highest since 2014 and it is all about the perception of policy. what comes next from the bank of japan and the shining equity
story. that makes the futures market makes chinese equity volatility look tame. what comes next, the chinese are trying to suppress volatility. think about everything they're doing. on the flipside of that, we're waiting, waiting for the bank of japan to act. that is the reason why there is extreme movement in volatility. we saw that in the fx market. the yen has had a nice big rally, the biggest two-day slump in three years in dollar yen. that is inextricably linked to what happens next on this equity story. for those whoity want to be precise. it is ratcheting higher. you know i like a ratchet, anna. it is putting japan back into play. anna: chris is still with us.
i think there are high expectations for the bank of japan. they must to do something. as we mentioned earlier, it had the opposite reaction to the one that they wanted in terms of, let's be honest, and it's all about the currency. it will never quite admit that. it is really improving the terms of trade in the currency. that is exactly why equity volatility has gone up because the currency has been heading the wrong way. i months ago, we were bored but currency volatility in china. the chinese have successfully thrown a fire blanket over that. now there is concern that japan and europe are both in the same quandary. they must tame their currencies unless it will have serious economic consequences. manus: anna: interesting thoughtanna: talking when i should he didn't all central banks are tried to
do that right now. chris, thank you very much. more than half of britain thinks the only way to curb immigration is for the u.k. to vote to leave the european union and that months referendum. that is according to a poll. that is a central bank of the leave campaign. with the eu accounting for 172,000 arrivals. it is according to the office for national statistics. joining us now from berlin the social research institute managing director, bobby, and ch ris is still with us. bobby, good to have you on the program plus a pick us through the latest findings in this research. immigration is at the heart of the brexit debate, but people still say the economy is the
biggest issue. is really the combination of those two issues. the top issue a be the economy, closely followed by immigration. for many people, it is the tension between those issues that will decided. people want to point to immigration control but to the benefits of free trade and free movement first those two things are linked. we have done a great thatof research in migration into the united kingdom is a positive on the economy, a positive on tax, and majority ofthe inward migration come from not the eu. they're simply not explaining the story. more: it is much
complicated than that in terms of people's understanding of the issues. t economic data that will show it is a net benefit to the u.k.. the problem is, the resources don't float enough around the country. it doesn't feel like a net benefit and lost parts of britain -- a lot of britain. casey increase pressure on housing, the don't to be tax increase flowing into their area. absolutely, there is a effect about these issues. it is much more complicated than that. it is not just media created, it is how people feel. we've tracked people's attitude is towards net migration issues. beforeration increased people start to complain more about immigration. it is much more nuanced than that, not just a knee-jerk
reaction. anna: what is the most likely outcome on the 23rd? i know you worked for a wild the prime minister strategy unit doing research. it strikes me that the prime minister+++ this side, but going all out to back remain. we get a constant flow of comments about why it is important. it seems like they would not taken such a strong start if they weren't confident there are
going to win. what news do you have for them? bobby: the vote is still a narrow lead for remain. one thing we asked was to predict the outcome. the wisdom of crowds, which is often different. across europe, we covered nine matched thehey current voting intentions within the u.k.. if 53% shift for remain. when you look at the british figures, it was closer to two up ass saying it could end a remain vote. more encouraging indicators remain that way. my the encouraging for the remain camp, but there is a great piece you wrote which is the domino effect. that is for a much half european, the numbers internationally. u.k. would suffer less than the eu in terms of a breakup, but it raises the question that in thenerving of brexit united kingdom raises the specter of a real challenge around your yet -- europe. bobby: that domino effect was areally interesting. never is the most interesting from the international study was that finding that people think an exit for britain is more
eu thano be bad for the for britain itself. that was a bit of a surprise. also the finding you're referring to, half the country's saying it britain leaves they think other countries may follow. that is quite speculative for the people don't know what is going to happen in this vote, let alone what could happen in the future. of thell, that sense challenges facing the eu, of keeping together such a disparate few. we have some questions about what we think the feature was going to be, with a more integrated about the same, or less. you got 40% on each end, very few in the middle. 40% at each and thinking that it should be more integrated, or less integrated. keeping together, that variety of views not just in one country
with sales that were better than estimates. it is the world's fourth biggest net revenue rose 2% on an adjusted basis. they said they would get a 1.3% growth of their. a one-time adjustment of the natural gas contract with gas from underlying income right. that was the three month until the end of march. the agreement would end the arbitration process and enable them to cancel some provisions recorded in earlier years. they beat first-quarter earnings. eonpeak exclusively to the finance minister in london time for us to disney shares falling in extended trading after missing earnings forecasts. the abc network struggled. 1.36 dollars a
share. also closing its infinity game unit. disneyland shanghai is opening next month. that is the bloomberg business flash. anna: thank you very much. kicking off a full year of earnings reporting for japan's top three automakers. we know joined now from hong kong. good to have you on the program. what can investors expect here? this has been battling with vw to be the biggest in the world. its rival has had its own challenges. >> thanks for having me, toyota will have a really tough quarter. the year" are ending in march,
they face a couple of supply chain shocks, one being the beginning of the year one of the suppliers deal plants had to shut down. secondly, at the last month, we earthquake,had an factory stopped production for a week. in total, the impact on production for this company is probably around 2.5 weeks. veryuto business is capital intensive. it needs to push a lot of volume in there to reduce fixed costs. on top of that, the early part of the program, the yen had a huge surge. manus: what is the outlook for the rest of the year? >> they will face a number of headwinds.
we talked about the yen, in the past 3.5 years, the company .3 trillionok about 1 depreciation. now the yen is reversing, and all of that gain is going to have to reverse middlebrook some losses in the coming quarters. that is one big headwind. the other is incentives. japan.re pretty weak in u.s. sales are near peaking, growth has slowed. in china, growth is doing well, but tehre is a lot of incentives to push that. anna: thank you very still with us in the studio, chris, let's tie up some loose ends. sell in may and go away, does it
apply this year? s: if you look at the last five years, there has been a case to be made for it. but would you is the big question? two out of those five years you to finish the year a lot higher. that seems to be a case for it. right now, this market has absolutely nothing going for it. we have been going through a reporting season where earnings globally, we have all these event risks which we spend most of this morning discussing. that is every reason to keep people on the sidelines and have had pretty weak economic momentum. however, all of those reasons may be reasons why now might be the time to think about moving into the markets. inhave seem some surge
commodity markets for the may be the worst of the earnings is behind us and some of the technical actually have seen now pure consolidation. thatlly, you might realize they're just a bit too bearish. manus: chris, i got a chart for you. from a charting point of you, you have to say looks like one could be on the way. the s&p rallied, we broke a trend. 18 session streak without a break above or below 1%. the longest stretches since 2014, do you want to reengage with u.s. equities in a significant way? chris: well, actually, for us we would rather be stuck with u.s. equities. we have reduced equities.
u.s. equities are one of the ones which we think actually still a something going for them. a mentioned earlier, the u.s. has some quite favorable dynamics to get inflation back. they did have real negative interest rates, that is pretty good. big evaluation problem in u.s. equities. i think that is for a much in the shop window. i think it is important to watch the technicals. they're still gathering information. i take your point, i think it is still a bit early. we are still in the information gathering stage. we look at sentiment a lot as well. and maybe a bit too negative. anna: briefly, what a rate hike function of the bloomberg chart by the end of the year? with that damage or investment? is expected.
to "countdown." i am manus cranny in dubai. anna: i am anna edwards and london. we will go first to japan where you have breaking news. i got up with operating profit outlook at ¥1.7 trillion. outlook doesfit look to be below estimate. they are also giving an operating profit for the fourth quarter. that's below the estimate of 628. the fourth quarter also below estimates. upset, havee announced a buyback. they are giving us more details
for how the business is performing. working into their assumption? what did the steel plant in february due to increase production? we can see some of the effect of that coming in below estimate. we have these devastating earthquakes as well. greater will get some details about the negative impact they have had on the business. interesting to get these numbers below estimates for the operating profit for toyota and buying back shares. is the world's
biggest catering company. 10.6 pence. 9.6 7revenue beating billion. that's above the marker they were looking for. operating profit is above the estimate. these are the first half numbers. 16 -- 22 will be positive in unchanged. who have the conversation on what is driving the business. guidances untainted, untarnished and untouched by some of the global issues that are touching, tainting and pushing others around the world. >> let's put all of that into the futures for the sporting.
it looks as if we will be just a touch on the back foot. down 0.1% on the ftse 100. a similar move on the cac 40. we had a lot of corporate earnings from germany this morning. let's look at the risk radar. the yen increasing the biggest to date loss on monday and tuesday since january. it's perhaps seen as a little bit excessive. dollar up bynd 0.7% with central-bank report dampening speculation that we have seen interest rates cut from the central bank and gold in focus. the billionaire hedge fund manager talking about buying gold, on the back of central-bank policy. goldman sachs says they are increasing their forecast,
retaining a fairly bearish outlook. juliet: -- manus: amazing how goldman has delivered along with gold simultaneously on the same day. let's get the first word news with rishaad salamat. facing: dilma rousseff what may be her last day in office. the senate gearing up for a vote and into -- to ouster from office and into an impeachment trial she looks unlikely to win. and more than a simple majority they need to move toward impeachment. donald trump has won the west virginia and nebraska primaries week after driving his competitors out. ted cruz had hinted he might reenter the contest if he performed well. bernie sanders is the projected winner in west virginia. those 37 delegates
up for grabs. extending gains even up to portray -- poor april jobs data. rateh and fed interest increases have fallen too far, too fast. for a rebound as the meeting the dollar will extend -- more than half of britons think the only way to curb immigration is for the u.k. to vote to leave the european union. as according to a poll by maury. many say is the only way to cut immigration. even the one in five who want to remain in the block feel the same. if you have not benefited from the rebound making three stocks
-- greek stocks the best bet, is too late to join in. while an agreement is likely, exuberance has lifted the index 43% in three months. morgan stanley last week recommended chairs with lenders following other bullish calls by credit suisse and hsbc. day every day we have 2400 journalists working in news bureaus and for our top stories, use the top function. anna: let's check in on the asian market session. shery ahn extending my with details. not getting a great degree of conviction. we did not see that in the asian section, either. reporter: a little bit of a mixed picture across asia today.
as you take a look at the japanese shares, they gave up earlier gains. finished slightly positive for a third consecutive day. gains ineing strong the philippines. gaining more than 3% after in the declared victory presidential race. these gains coming despite exports have fallen more than 50% -- 15%ore than on march and missing estimates. the hang seng index is down. chinese stocks trading in hong kong are having a tough week as we see them plunge again, now declining for the seventh time in eight days.
friday, we are expecting them to hold the rates steady with a record low of 1.5%. as stocks have been hit by a -- after its at longest four-day loss since febr uary. a stronger japanese yen also had impact on stocks there. hurting the outlook for exporters getting 6/10 of 1% -- 0.6%. anna: joining us now on set in passing through london this morning, bill great to have you on the program. set down your stool for a little bit. we talked to earlier with chris watley said these markets do not look appetizing. how do you feel about the investment environment?
>> based on interest rates, stocks are attractive. we are the old-school value investors who believe the present value is what you're interested in. interestffett said if rates stay this low that stocks are undervalued. people look at, a lot of are concerned with the level of interest rates and investors around the world look at u.s. 10 year treasuries as a good rate. that the economy of the united states will be dramatically stronger over the next 10 years than most are planning. the sheer number of people between 25 and 35 that will automatically get 10 years older in the next 10 years which will
move them away from renters into home buyers and begin the normal part of an economic recovery which would include housing but we are still coming out of a housing depression in the united states. >> talking about the demographics there and will look at something like the results asm amazon, record riches the stock surpasses 700. this is one of those stocks, isn't it? it has to be said that amazon is winning the trophies at the moment. does it win for you? >> we want a business to receive the free cashd flow that does not have to be reinvested back into the business. therefore, amazon's business model is not the kind of business model we seek. we would be of the theory right
now that investors in the united states stock market are infatuated with revenue growth due to the fact that the economy has been anemic. we would argue that there is a bit of arrogance surrounding tech and a bit of arrogance in the way that comment stocks were priced. if you are viewed to be a company negatively impacted by facebook,netflix or you are trading at 10 to 11 times earnings and if you are one of those companies you are training at high earnings ratios. we much out -- all investing shows that cheap stocks outperform average and more expensive ones. it doesn't say what amazon will do but there might be opportunities in the things negatively impacted by people's view of that revenue growth story. >> to you do like some of the tech names, maybe some not liked by others. >> ebay is tech agnostic.
they try to use the best of it. and in manyeowned cases new goods. they're very profitable already. no one has to sit around and wait for the day when they see the profits sold on ebay. massive free cash flow linebacker stock and natalie bennett and dependent company separate from paypal for less than a year. will do togs they improve business are only going to come. but the fact that they traded 13 times earnings in a market the trade that 17, is that really a 70 -- 25% worst business than the average business in the s&p 500, a business that has a stellar balance sheet, very high profit margins and never has to worry about what to sell or provide logistics or by airplanes or any of these other things that people are doing?
manus: we have to get to the big elephant in the room. the dollar is something that the fed is preoccupied by. it's evident in global markets have dominated their sinking -- thinking. anna has her work function beside her, is the fed going to go twice and from everything you've said, it sounds like you want more domestic focus trades then you want global risk with dollar trades. >> you're up to quite accurate. we believe that over the next 10 years, main street will outperform wall street in the united states and maybe this political climate that you've gets a report on in the united states presidential election is a sign of this. if the largest adult population group do get older, many of them mary and have kids and buy houses. the composition of spending in the united states is going to
move dramatically away from what single people spend money on which is in the united states to , craft beer,illy chipotle, and the next apple device. the composition of spending will move from's -- from housing to an automobile that holds two adults and a lot of things in it. from our perspective we want to own businesses that advertise for auto dealers and automakers which would be network television affiliates, cable channels and people like yourself and we like or traditional media and the way that it might be possibly impacted by that. bill, the ceo and chief investor at smead capital management. giving us his investment strategy. next we speak exclusively to the compass group ceo. that copy just reporting their numbers a few minutes ago.
manus: it's just gone 7:18 in london. let's get to bloomberg business flash with shery ahn. >> thank you. toyota says that annual net income will probably decline for the first time in five years. japan's largest company predicted that net income may drop to $13.8 billion for the fiscal year ending in march. that's below analyst estimates. to you i -- tui will be selling an element to focus on its tourism processes.
generated 66 .2 million euros in underlying operating profit. europe's largest tour operators as it will retain only the crystal see, thompson lakes, and mountain businesses from the portfolio. crossbar he has reported sales that the estimates on growth and eastern europe and asia. the brewers is that fourth-quarter net revenue rose 2% on adjusted aces to $2 billion. the median estimate of analysts by bloomberg was for 1.3% growth. that is your bloomberg business flash. >> shery ahn joining us with a ink at what's making news the asian session. we just had earnings from compass group earlier this morning. first quarter sales and operating profits be estimates. joining us now for an exclusive interview is the ceo, richard cousins.
issa expectations for 2016 are positive and unchanged, tell us something meaty and substantial about where you deliver. >> we deliver lots of meat and vegetables and everything else. theeel really good about way business is going. the north american flagship is in good health. i don't think we can quite maintain those levels but we feel really good. the u.k. which is our number two country is also performing particularly well. there are some issues and the rest of the world particularly in the commodities sector but europe is recovering nicely and north america is in great shape. >> richard, good morning. it is manus in dubai. food prices are the biggest in could -- input component part. deflation is something everybody says sit in that seat and they say it's the world. what is it mean to the bottom line for you?
>> we don't recognize the word deflation. i understand that on average we have a little bit less food inflation the normal. but conversely we spent a bit more on labor and labor inflation is probably slightly above average. we think as a whole it is pretty neutral. i think it's not a huge issue. >> can i ask a little bit about the brexit vote. just over a month to go before the u.k. goes to the polls and votes on whether or not to leave the union, how is your company preparing. >> seriously but there's only so much we can do. the board discussed it formally last week. we think that our business model is very flexible. we are not overly concerned. my personal preference is that it would be better if we stayed in but from a business point of view we are trying to think it through but we think we are in
good shape. anna: what would be the biggest headache if you did leave? >> in the short-term it would not impact our business significantly. >> let's go a little bit more global. he just give us a slight nod in terms of the ability to sustain the level in north america. talk to us about those emerging markets. there is a huge amount of versatility and a huge amount of expectation. tell us what you are seeing. >> our brazilian business is a strong one. were doing well but there is certainly a noticeable slowdown. i'm going to resume again next week. it's fine but clearly not as strong as it was a couple years ago. elsewhere in the emerging markets, we are fairly small in india and china but we have grown fairly well. the biggest impact is in the
commodities sector where it's only 7% or 8% of our business. you should not complain when our two business -- biggest businesses are in such great shape. greatsaid they are in shape, and terms of taking cost out of the business it's a theme and a lot of other businesses. are you managing to do that in various geographies. talk us to the cost control aspect. >> great question it is fundamental to our business model. our clients outsource because they want us to be low cost of a what innovation and so on. i think we are being rewarded for the fact that over many years we have been obsessed by cost reduction in that process is going on through all the various framework we have in place. anna: you called it your flagship and you said you are growing at 8% there any
suggested that might not be sustainable,. close to it. >> give us some idea of where you think that business can deliver more into the medium term. >> outsourcing is a positive trend so we would expect our u.s. business to grow above gdp. if you look at our track record it does seem that we can grow year after year at 6% to 7% which gives it a scale, i $14 billion business. we feel that is very sustainable. anna: how does the dollar move impact you. >> for us it is largely transactional. -- sorry translational. it's not to geteal. >> just want your perspective here. honestly you are on the board it tesco. you're here to talk about your own company but everybody was to know what the turnaround in that business. what remains to be done there?
>> as you rightly say, i am not here to talk about tesco. i don't pick it would be appropriate. i can tell you that we think the tesco management is doing all the right things but it is a tough sector. anna: you sit in the first quarter that the u.k. was a standup company. -- country. could there be changing providers or anything like that? >> were not seeing it. i winning contracts and a retention rate is much improved. we put a huge amount of effort into quality and service trying to bring more innovation and so on and a think we will be rewarded for that. >> richard cousins joining us this morning. the ceo of compass group. that will do it for "countdown. the futures look a little bit lackluster us morning. >> i think it will all be down to the price of oil.
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billboard music awards moments, simply by using your voice. the billboard music awards, live sunday may 22nd, 8/5 pacific, only on abc. guy: welcome to on the move, 7:30 in london, 8:30 in berlin. i am guy johnson alongside caroline hyde she is in berlin in this is what we're watching. is it to's last a on the job? the senate will vote on the brazilian president's impeachment later today. backing the block. goldman traders think that people are missed pricing the fed. and delivering on growth. deutsche