tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg May 12, 2016 10:00am-11:01am EDT
vonnie: we will take you from london to new york to sao paulo. the senate in brazil votes to suspend president dilma rousseff who faces an impeachment trial. after months of political is set, a new government to take command of the recession wracked economy. mark: the bank of england cuts its growth forecast and governor mark carney warns about to leave the european union would hurt the economy possibly causing a recession. trump meetsld face-to-face with house speaker paul ryan, can they resolve their differences and unite the republican party? what does this mean for the november election? first let's go to the markets desk where julie hyman has the latest. off the we are coming
highs of the session dramatically for the three major averages. -- theative is negative nasdaq is negative and the dow is about the same. what i see is in the white, we have seen oil go a leg lawyer and stocks are going along with it -- a leg lower and stocks are going along with it. we had seen oil rising on concerns over supply constraints in nigeria as well as in the u.s. since then, it has fallen off and it looks like that is what is causing stocks to go lower. imap, energy the is in one of the top spots paring its gains. health care and technology are languishing today but yesterday we had the big pullback in retail stocks. it's a mixed trade and retail. kohl's first earnings-per-share
missed their forecast with possible sales down 3.9%. they say consumers are not lying apparel and it says it has a good issues from a marketing perspective and the shares are down 8% which is a five-year low. ralph lauren is seeing fruit of the turnaround efforts. the ceo has reorganize the company. revenue fell but it fell less than estimated. we also have egg news potentially debt they news within the agrochemical industry. bayer is exploring a potential bid for monsanto. is up and bayer is falling at the moment in german trading. mark: stocks here are rising for the third day. we have come off the highs and the stoxx 600 was 1/10 of 1% higher. now it's half of that. chemicals are down on that bayer
/monsanto deal. rwe said first-quarter profit was little changed. unusually high earnings from trading with slumping power prices. these are the big utilities in germany. they have gone through huge structural changes as the country shifts from nuclear to green energy. andshares are down by 35% e.on is down by 35%. the bank earnings season continues today. lender is reporting a drop in first-quarter profits. it beganevenue fell as reorganization to streamline its capital structure. here is a chart of the big lenders in 2016. we've got a 22% decline for
stockgen. today is coming from the bank of england, the big rhetoric today, which was stepped up when the governor suggested the u.k. could fall into recession if the u.k. votes to leave the eu. we had a downgraded growth forecast for this year and next year and the year after an inflation forecast for cap the same. just were kept the same. this goes out to may of next year, just a 10% chance of an increase next year. no chance before then and it's more likely the bank of england, this chart tells us, will cut rates. it's about the referendum. vonnie: you spent almost an hour speaking about it -- they spent almost an hour speaking about it, thank you. let's check in on first word news.
trump has arrived on capitol hill to meet with house speaker paul ryan. he is hoping to get his endorsement that paul ryan is downplaying the meeting as is the bin is this of unifying very public and party will take some time -- the republican party will take time. there will be a new government in brazil. the brazilian senate voted to suspend president dilma rousseff from office. she will face an impeachment trial on charges she illegally doctored accounts to hide a deficit. the vice president is expected to take over as acting president. he inherits the worst recession in decades. we will have more on this shortly. there has been another attack in baghdad following yesterday's wave of bombings that killed 93 people. iraqi officials say twin suicide bombings hit a police station killing at least five policeman. one bomber blew himself up at the gate of the police station and a second bomber detonated
his explosives inside the building. another 12 policemen were wounded. as bad as the terrorist attacks in brussels were, they could have been worse. people briefed on the investigation say that solid police work in the days before the attack less the impact and the investigation has found there is disarray inside the terrorist cell. 32 people died in the attack are . vonnie: thank you. things are heating up in las vegas as fiery debates over the global economy breakout at the salt conference. erik schatzker is there and is stemming by with a hedge fund heavyweight. much, thek you very rubicon fund management, good morning. most managers, most hedge fund
managers, are terrified of volatility but you like to run your fund with more volatility. why question mark >> at the end to finday, we are paid potential dislocations and when we identify them with a compelling risk return, we press quite hard and that creates volatility. timing is a difficult thing to judge. we can be early to a trade and have associated volatility but we are paid to take risks and that's what the fee structure is about. erik: the past few years have been lean for macro strategies but you have been up. weiser hard to make money? >> i think it reflects the extraordinary environment we are in. the rate structure across the globe has collapsed in the developed world. been almost ahave pervasive force in managing market expectations and financial outcomes.
it's becoming very important to try to understand and predict their reaction function. as time has gone on, the experiment with policy has got more extreme. i think policymakers are becoming more cautious. isombination of those things making predicting monetary policy a difficult exercise. a lot of macro managers, that's a key part of what we do but it has become fraught with hazard. erik: no question. it easier over time to understand how the central banker thinks? is it getting any easier? >> i would not say it's getting easier. as i indicated, we are getting to the extreme edges of policymaking. it's largely an experiment going to zero or negative rates and qe is largely an experiment. i'm not sure it will be easy to predict where to go from here
other than to expect unexpected outcomes. we are positioning to reflect that. we expect more volatility and have been preparing in the spirit of financial repression. policy is reaching its limits and there is also substantial imbalances. start those dislocations to move over the next 6-12 month, it's quite possible. erik: david rubenstein of carlisle said he was surprised that so many macro managers got it wrong. were you surprised? >> i have to be surprised because we have been tripped up a few times in the last 18 months. i think it the extraordinary cautiousness. if you look at the federal reserve, in addition to their mandates, they have
added a third one which is the rest of the world. when you strap on an additional mandate at will, it has made it difficult for us to predict how they will respond. erik: is size a limiting factor? you have about $800 million under management and a makes you wait nimble. some of the macro funds, are they too large? >> i do not want to pass critical comment on might p or group. eriki think the markets have chd dramatically. there has been a dramatic transportation in terms of risk-taking and price making an price taking. the price making environment has become constrained by regulatory burdens. thanks no longer are willing to take on risk. access inwe can markets has shrunk. we normally have very liquid instruments so that's not an issue but things adjust quickly and almost violently. if you are managing a large size, that's very tricky.
erik: does the bank allen should create opportunities question mark not so long ago, people would complain that goldman sachs was feeding the trade and now they can't do that. >> the opportunities are still there because they are driven by fundamentals and pricing. i would say there is more resistance to movements. that's why we are getting these gaps. it has not necessarily reduced the opportunity. opportunities are still very compelling. erik: what appeals to you right now? >> we are very focused on japan. we made a trip down there recently. last bank of japan meeting was a surprise because we sensed that policymakers are anxious about the eventual out come of their interest rates. part of it is political. has somewhatow
faltered so they need to re-energize that project. monetary policy will play a role but we sense it's more a combination of fiscal and monetary. erik: what you think the bank of japan will do? >> i think they will push hard on the monetary policy sard but ay to engineer more of movement into risky assets by japanese investors. the whole project has been designed to get german investors to embrace more risk. they have been steadfast -- erik: does the bank of japan need to buy stocks to >> do that? but it has of it rewarded people who have been holding jgb's. that was not the primary objective so they need to make that a more risky proposition. they probably need to encourage a slightly steeper yield curve which will help the banks who have been badly damaged by the move to negative rates. accommodation measures reduce
the impact of jgb would be reasonable. erik: when you anticipate volatility, how have you done that? tend to run the forfeit a long option elegy which comes from a burden. we have a more somatic approach. we trade more actively. erik: going back to japan, how will you position there? ?s it through the yen or jgb's >> we have a number of strategies. the overarching theme is what i discussed. to reflect that, we have positioned ourselves along the equity market but largely for option. it has been a hazardous trait so we are limiting the size on that. our preference is to be short in areas of risk aversion, the yen has come back of late. i think capital out low is the
real story in japan and that will continue and has been quite significant. we traveled down there and are aware that there are large to mystic investors that hold most of their assets in low yielding domestic product. a lot of that capital will find its way home. there are interesting things on the yield curve side as well. if you believe that central banks will create inflation, i think owning the inflation linked jgb's is an attractive trade. i think the yield curve is too flat so we have trades on to reflect that. erik: thank you very much and great seeing you here. that's paul brewer of rubicon. back to new york city. vonnie: thank you. other big interviews throughout the day on bloomberg television. from the salt conference. chanos will beim
dilma rousseff is addressing the people of brazil after lawmakers voted to impeach her and the senate has 180 days to conduct a trial and decide whether she should be permanently removed from office. we will come back to this in a few seconds. vonnie: let's go to the market desk with julie hyman. coming offks are their highs today and we should point out that one of the movers constraining any gains is apple.
the shares are falling to their lowest in nearly two years since june of 2014. recent losinga streak along with the rest of stocks as they moved down 1.6%. market capking its advantage over at-bat -- over alphabet. honeywell plant to spend -- spinoff its chemical business early next year. ix.will be called advanc there is no impact on financial guidance. this company makes a polymer resin used to engineer plastics, and fibers. thatmake plastic packaging goes on different types of products. the shares are not doing much of the moment but were up earlier in the day after this was announced. we have been talking about che
nere energy. ere new ceo replaces neil she who was there on an interim basis after the former ceo was ousted. carl icone investor was the biggest shareholder inset in the past that he thought the former ceo was not taking the company on the right to. he says he has that he was instrumental in that ouster. the stock had fallen sharply over the pasture but is getting -- gaining 7% today. suki for his reaction. filings, he still owns about 1.25% of this company's shares. mark: we are tracking dilma rousseff, she is live speaking
now. she says this is a decisive moment for brazilian democracy. aresays what is at stake her achievements of the past 13 years and said the impeachment was fraudulent. she said this reaffirms her impeachment is a coup. more on those events in brazil coming up next on bloomberg markets. we are live in sao paulo after the break. ♪
years and she confirms i might have committed errors but not crimes. let's go to sao paulo to our bureau chief. what are her options now? >> she has to step down temporarily for about six months. her vice president will take over the government. from everything she said, she will keep fighting the impeachment and now she has to face a trial on the senate. her political power is now gone. interim, the vice president has the power. what will he announce later today? >> he is supposed to announce most of his cabinet which has been circulating widely for the past few weeks, the finance minister will likely the the former central bank chief. the market andy
he is likely to announce almost the entire cabinet and possibly an economic plan to get brazil growing again. vonnie: we are seeing the real we can on the news. -- weaken on the news. >> some investors say most of the impeachment is priced him and the central bank is intervening on the currency so that is impacting it as well. steps: what would be the the vice president would take to stabilize the economy that has been suffering on the growth and inflation side? ministeruld-be finance has said in past weeks is that the first thing brazil needs to confidencenvestor back that he will stabilize the debt trajectory and that result can pay its debts it's not going off a cliff in that sense in getting that fiscal side solved
and trying to get some measures to boost growth and stop unemployment from rising. we don't know exactly what those measures will be. risks of thee the ongoing corruption scandal and the general disillusionment with the political process in brazil, what are the risks that could come back to haunt the vice president? carwash is a corruption probe that has been going on for two years and it's seen as a huge risk. have beens allies mentioned and many people are being investigated. the suspended lower house speaker has been investigated and the supreme court is looking at many cases so it could further destabilize the coalition base that he manages to build. it is one of the biggest risks for him and brazil. and there we you
see president dilma rousseff continue to speak alive to the nation. she says it's a decisive moment for brazilian democracy and at stake are her compliments of the past 13 years. she affirms her impeachment is a coup. ahead, a 2.2 billion dollars steak and mrs. dachshund mitts it -- in mitsubishi motors by nissan.
he ise francis says willing to create a commission to study whether women can serve as deacons in the church. deacons are ordained ministers who are not priests. can bely, married men deacons, but not priests. the obama administration is unveiling new rules reducing methane gas from oil wells. will require energy companies to do a better job of plugging those leaks. 84 timess said to be more powerful than carbon dioxide when it comes to warming the atmosphere. since 2008,t time wall street is betting on democratic presidential candidate. bloomberg crunched the numbers, and hillary clinton received $.70 of every dollar spent in the presidential race by employees of the five largest u.s. banks. in then early turnaround campaign. jeb bush got the biggest share wall street money.
"bloomberg markets." global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists, in more than 150 news bureaus across the world. vonnie: brazil has a new president. michael temperature is now -- michael is now brazil's temporary president. rousseff, the president who had was suspended, just speaking like to the nation recalling what happened in the nation was a coup. will say no.lians she says she will fight with all of her legal and shipments available for her mandate -- she said she will fight with all of her legal instruments available for her mandate. a look at theve
european equities market. 8/10.e up all major benchmarks are trading lower. dominates it by earnings. have a look at the best and worst performing industry groups today. on the stoxx 600, energy up by 8/10 of 1%. utilities are higher as well. we had unexpected earnings from the german utilities. all sorts of numbers today from gone -- aegan. bemical news said to exploring a potential bid from the u.s. competitor. a chief executive who helped turn around mitsubishi will find out after the company bought a 34% stake in the motors for more
than $2 billion. their market value has fallen more than 40% after saying it overstated its fuel economy. they told bloomberg whether mitsubishi partnership was attracted -- attractive to them. obviously care about the viability of the company and we care about the company. k cars for the japanese market. think at thee extending a hand in discussing partnership was something that was totally natural. on top of this, it makes sense. [indiscernible]
you know very well there are between things going on japanese authorities and mitsubishi between regulatory authorities. but they were announcing is understanding. there is due diligence going on. it is based on a clear exchange between us and mitsubishi. hopefully, nothing will come that would challenge this memory of understanding. the due diligence should take a few months to be done correctly. in the meantime, a lot of uncertainty around this unfortunate situation will be clear. mark: that was the chief executive from tokyo. vonnie: we are going back to las vegas for the conference with
erik schatzker. .e is there with troy guide ski eric? erik: hedge funds are under pressure right now. returns are lousy in some investors are bailing out of the industry altogether. we've seen the headlines over the last several days. are you surprised so many prominent managers have been performing so poorly? are. some strategies we the factise come from you had almost a perfect environment for them to make money. we had massive levels of m&a. all of them were strategic. activist managers had far more influence, but still struggle to generate returns. in a flattish market environment, it is hard to define exactly what went wrong. do with it had to
health care. the space was more crowded. we thought it was credit for a reason. it was an opportunity where people had to make money. other strategies continue to stronger because of never ending policy intervention. even when you are right, you are wrong. think about what janet yellen did, she adopted a third mandate for the fed. , you dore a mac pro guy all of this research on fundamentals, and suddenly the fed pulls a rug out from under you and changes the rules, it is hard to make money. it is a continuation of a long trend of intervention tough to predict that all times. conditions forhe the activists and the event driven guys not as favorable today as they were, say, two years ago? inyou arguably had to peak m&a. they track m&a volume closely. before m&agood 13
started to boom. m&a volumes have nowhere to go but down. there are only so many strategic deals you can do. financing has become tight and there is more regulatory intervention as you have seen with staples and office depot. looking forward, as volumes come down, there is less transaction to do, the opportunity is not as rich. furthermore, as we move through the cycle, the risk of a good market goes up and that has always been the biggest risk to the strategy because those managers are long bias. it is tough to make money when you're 60% net long. that thoseu expect event-driven investors will continue to perform poorly and lose money, or is it the risk of them losing money is much greater? >> after going through the leveraging period last year and
this year, there will be some reversion. we don't think that there is no money to be made. there are better opportunities elsewhere in cash, driven strategies because you have very low dollar prices and very wide spreads in structured credits and mortgage backed securities where you have high-yield bonds. you have much more castro -- much more cash flow and carry. sense exceptkes anybody looking at structured credits saw how poorly performed in the first five weeks of the year. >> that is correct. any asset that is economic sensitivity can be subject to temporary liquidity can have substantial declines in price. that did not surprise us. but will we look to the fundamentals, we concluded it was technically driven by wall street dealer desks. and a lot of crossover selling.
there were fears that the world was going to end. if you have good as is, they are fundamentally sound, but that technically distressed prices, that is a good investment opportunity. erik: so the investors you are allocating to our investing in what? >> long and short. not everything is great and rosie. clo's are backed by levered loans have commodity exposure, but much less and the high-yield bond market. they had very good cash flow and legacy that is backed by the housing market. our point of view is that the housing market is in a steady uptrend with tight supply. homeownership rates have bottomed out and of started to pick up. unemployment is low. everything you look at those you , whatever causes the next recession will not be housing. it is not going to be down 30%,
40%. erik: is part of the appeal a structured credit is it is more recession-proof? it sounds to me, based on what you are saying, you are protecting the portfolio from a potential drop in equity prices and a deceleration in the economy. >> it is all based on risk reward. what will happen in a recession, even the your cash flows won't get turned off because you have ample subordination, the risk of that occurring will go up, this prices will go down. .anagers will be down as long as we don't have a dark recession or a complete catastrophe, we won't have cash flow impairment. we think much less downside with similar upside and no one has to agree with you to make money, the economy has to avoid recession to have a good return. erik: troy. thank you for being here. gywaki.that is troy
let's go to capitol hill where eric watson joins us. tweetingiebus is positive things, but he brokered the talks in his interest to say that they have done well. any word from paul ryan are donald trump? >> we have not heard from the principles in the meeting. there was a meeting between priebus and ryan and trump and other leaders including kevin mccarthy. that second meeting has just ended within the last few moments and we are a clear principles to come out and give us a readout. predict there won't be a major endorsement from paul ryan coming out of this meeting, however, priebus' tweet said it is a step to reunifying the party. laid out some policy ideas he thinks is essential to the republican platform and we are eagerly seeing how trump reacts to that presentation.
vonnie: we will be came from paul ryan in the next hour at 11:30. do we know what will happen next? there is a series of meetings ending with mitch mcconnell as well. >> one of the key things is to see how trump's rhetoric on the campaign trail changes if at all. the chairman of the finance committee came out and says he endorse donald trump, but encourages to modify his rhetoric. if trump does tony down, that would be a good indication that he is coming to meet the republicans on capitol hill halfway. later on, we will have to see if there is a meeting of the mines on crucial differences on policy. trump has criticized paul ryan on subjects like medicare and social security cuts.
big difference is trade, immigration, tax policy -- those will play out in the coming weeks and months. already, has said his muslim bae softened. that is one of the things that paul ryan is most objecting to saying that it is un-american. mark: to what extent does trump need ryan to get elected to become president? who is going to bend more here to achieve party unity? eric: conventional wisdom on capitol hill is that paul ryan will have to bend more. paul ryan objecting to trump helps him on the campaign trail. there is a lot of anger against washington and the establishment. so paul ryan's statement may have helped trump's polling numbers. paul ryan needs trump more than trump needs ryan. ryan's agenda will have to go
through the oval office occupied by donald trump. mark: the other big news in the last 24 hours when it comes to trump is a possibility of him naming newt gingrich as his running mate. what does mr. gingrich bring to the table? >> i think newt gingrich is well in the housel up republicans. obviously, in the 1990's, he was forced out of office after the losses in the 1996 race. but he is out there promoting himself for this job. the senateeople in that will relish the chance of a by's presidency and acting -- actively promoting their candidacy. donald trump says he wants someone that knows capitol hill and can move policy. eric, thank you for joining us.
♪ mark: it is time for the bloomberg flash. seven months ago, blackstone group said it was expanding its online consumer lending. now it is pulling back. several executives at blackstone from the finance have left. the unit is reorganizing its original mission, real estate financing. goldcorp is buying cavern at gold in an arrangement. is at $406 million. the deal comes after gold prices surged 20% this year and they
reported their first profits and three quarters. bloombergur latest business flash. julie, you have been watching apple shares? i have been watching apple shares. [laughter] they have been falling today and that their lowest in two years since 2014. losses have accelerated down by 2%. not sure what the exact catalyst is. apple has been having a losing streak. it has beenay, but on a downturn. we have been watching the gap between apple and off of that -- apple and alphabet. this is the spread between them which fell to a deficit of $7 billion back in february and now is shrinking to $2.5 billion.
we may have a new largest company in the u.s. if this trend does continue between these two companies. this is definitely want to watch today. now i am going to send it to vonnie. vonnie: thanks, julie. cheniere energy has found a new permanent ceo naming former -- she near had been led by interim ceo. , my colleague alix steel be interviewing charif souki. on thisk is up 7% announcement. clearly, either the new guy is great, or investors are just happy there is somebody in place. >> just the idea of having certainty is something very helpful to the stock, aesthetics jeff is anally,
operational guy. what analysts are saying, she near energy -- cheniere energy does not need the grand vision -- or read souki brought. they need somebody you'll ramp up all of the exporting terminals and make sure things go off without a hitch and grow the company at an operational basis. the outlook for cheniere energy in terms of coping with structural problems? alix: not that much. the business model was cheniere energy is the rents the export terminals to producers and have to pay whether or not they ship the lng are not. when five of these export terminals are going to be up and running in one area, they will be making $3 billion a year by doing absolutely nothing. the part where cheniere energy is exposed as their marketing arm and that is where they buy , liquefy itselves
and ship it out to buyers. that is more of a spot market that is not long-term contract and levered to the lng price. mark: can we have a back story? can you remind us why the founder, charif souki was ousted in december? alix: two words for you, carl icahn. carl icahn had a 13% stake in cheniere energy. the stock price did not do good through august. in november, sharif souki got the boot. carl icahn said that sharif souki had harebrained ideas and did not want him running the company anymore. he took a very activist stake in the company. what sharif said he wanted to grow cheniere energy very just on the, not export terminal side, but into oil. he wanted to diversify into oil expert terminals as well. carl icahn wanted to streamline
it and make it more of a predictable business at the end of the day. i am pure phrasing there. when i spoke to neil shearer, the interim ceo, he said, the ceo and board run cheniere energy. my interpretation is that carl icahn wasn't and wasn't having day-to-day operational expertise. however, you can imagine that the new ceo of cheniere energy would not get his spot without carl icon approval. near -- they said they are turning it into a predictable business model. not a lot of growth or exposure to any kind of growth or expansion. that thing will utility operational guy into the ceo realm seems to be the truth. it seems like they are moving him into the utility company. expansion, aities,
lot of things going on. vonnie: looking for to that interview with charif souki. stock fell 52% over the last year months. short interest in the stock is declining. mark: coming up, more of central banks' move keeping rates at a record low. bank of england cutting its forecast low. european equities looks like they are heading lower for the fifth consecutive day. they were higher earlier in the session. it is all about central banks today. the close is next. ♪
four betty liu. mark: i am mark barton. you are watching the european close on bloomberg markets. we are going to take you from london, from brazil and washington in the next hour. here is what we are watching -- central bank decisions out of denmark, norway, and the u.k. today. how are monetary policy decisions dealing with the challenge of a slowing euro area economy, and the upcoming brexit vote? vonnie: donald trump and speaker paul ryan met face-to-face this morning, and the meeting went "great. will they" did on the same page? -- will they get on the same page? a new government set to take command of latin america's largest economy. vonnie: