tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg May 12, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT
good afternoon, here is what we are watching this hour. u.s. stocks bouncing back from .heir lows an interview with a jim chanos from the sky ridge alternative conference in las vegas. he reveals his newest short positions. in donalds hiding trump's tax returns if anything at all? from business activities to to charitable donations, we will preview what may be inside. one hour from the close of trading and the dow gaining. julie hyman has latest. julie: we have gone on a round-trip today for the major averages. we are near the highs of the session. the nasdaq still remains in the red head but considering the earlier it was down more than by
1%. take a look at the groups on the move. we still have technology in the red. care has been lagging. tech just barely in the red. materials, consumer staples, utilities are leading some of the gains here. look, ifnted to take a i may, at what is going on with oil. because we have also seen the s&p track very closely today with oil prices. white yellow, the s&p in and you can see clearly what is going on. around and made a round-trip. so have oil prices there are concerns about supply constraints in nigeria. but supply in canada has been coming back online. that has been pushing oil around today. in the most toe gains, we've got microsoft higher, exxon mobil also rising
with the rebound in oil prices. and amazon.com on a five-day winning streak at this point. percentagewise, some of the winners we're looking at today tied to news include monsanto, which might be getting some interest from a buyer of germany to create the world's largest agrichemical company. ralph lauren beating estimates. group quietly trading higher today is the phones. julie: we are awaiting some kind of ruling on it -- on net neutrality. be getting potentially news tomorrow. bc at&t, verizon and comcast on the rise to we also got some news on the cable side of things.
california gave the last regulatory approval needed for this. the shares a little bit lower now. it was lied -- it was widely expected that the approval would come. vonnie: thanks a lot. now let's get a check of the headlines on the bloomberg this afternoon. mark crumpton has more from the newsroom. revealingld trump some of the candidates he is considering for vice president. he discussed selecting former house speaker newt gingrich as his running mate according to people familiar with those discussions. trump told foxnews he is also considering former arizona governor jan brewer and oklahoma governor mary fowler. and new jersey governor chris christie. a federal court has denied an emergency motion that don blankenship remain free while he appeals his conviction.
issued the same day he was due to report to start his one-year prison sentence. $250,000 infind connection with an explosion at the upper big west mine in west virginia. a video reenactment of freddie gray's toy 14 arrest. defense attorneys say narrow was not involved and that his only contact with gray was to look for an inhaler the asked for after gray was hand -- placed in handcuffs. praise death led to several weeks of riots and protests in baltimore. dozens of russian athletes in sochi, including 15 medal winners, were part of the state-run doping program according to "the new york times."
the doping are said to have involved russia's biggest stars of the games, including two veteran bob's letters who won gold. bobslederstter -- who won gold. while stocks have been bouncing around today, the s&p 500 is actually of 30% from its february low. what is the outlook for markets going into the second half? i know you've been looking at this rally and sort of scratching your head and asking if this is smart money or dumb money going into the rally. jeff: you have certainly seen a heck of a run since the february 11 low. it appears there's been some
slowing in some of the u.s. economic momentum. today, we got jobless claims and we have seen some weaker data. the world tends to look at the u.s. for growth leadership. fortunately, we have seen better growth in europe. we have seen some pretty good data coming putting some strong q1 gdp. maybe europe is picking up the slack that the u.s. is leaving behind, keeping the outlook for global growth and tax. are we on the cusp of a three-year bear market? how would you counter that argument? the argument is that we will not see it in corporate revenues and that there were just will not be global growth. jeff: global growth is slower than it has been in the past. but the idea that we will not see profit for 30 years, he would have to make a number of logical leaps to get to that
point. even as we look to the second half of this year, you can see some of the big drags on profit growth beginning to fade. one i noticed his commodity prices. they rebounded, talking about raw industrial prices. they have come back to about where they were in july, even june of last year. we are getting to a point of being on a year-over-year basis. commodity prices are no longer a drag on profits. that could alleviate some of the big negatives we have seen in the energy and materials sector. seem to hit a bit of a pause in the interest rate cycle. we had more comments today. your own boston fed president now streaking -- now sticking to the strict. we also have esther george speaking as well in the last little while. where do you expect the next interest rate to come from and how soon? jeff: we do anticipate another rate hike in the second half of
this year. it is very data dependent. even the bea has noted the seasonal economic data. as inflation begins to stabilize and rebound later this year, not sharply, but we have seen increases in wages. we have seen core inflation begin to firm up. it would suggest that the fed is wise to begin to know that. we expect at least one more interest rate hike in the second half of this year. itself impact on stabilizing the dollar which has been on a down run so far this year. the emerging market rally very dependent on the continuation of a weaker dollar, which may not happen. vonnie: we keep track care of the indexes.
not just consumer sentiment, but you have been looking at some stock market indexes. where would you put your money based on what they are telling you? jeff: there's still a lot of rampant estimate them in the markets. there is still certainly a lot of red. while we don't think stocks are in are mostly attractive from a valuations standpoint, we do see earnings growth looking out later this year and into 2017. it would tell me that it makes sense that finding neutral allocation to equities that makes sense from a long-term perspective. rebalance your portfolio. this is the time to be overweight stocks. it is not the time to be underweight and focusing on longer-term goals makes sense here. globally, there are some attractive opportunities. europe, which has really seen some economic improvement.
employment growth is increasing rapidly. maybe some better near-term economic momentum as we look to the european market. vonnie: thank you very much. difficult day, a some of the u.s. retailers. still ahead on bloomberg markets, will he or won't he? donald trump gives conflicting remarks on whether he will release his tax returns before the november election. at the bottom of the hour, jim chanos joins us from the conference in las vegas immediately after wrapping up his presentation. ♪
vonnie: welcome to "bloomberg markets." julie hyman has latest. has had thisus short, which he first talked about in december last year. looks like he is still hanging on, despite the fact that cheniere has a new ceo, this following the ouster of the previous ceo and founder of the company. shares have been rising threat the day on the appointment of the new ceo. it doesn't look like we are seeing much reaction as of yet. we get more details on the short and his latest thinking on cheneiere. just for context, let's look at a couple of others. if you look at how the stock has
done since chanos first revealed his short, the stock is down 36%. by that measure, he has done pretty well. he is not alone. about 11% of the company float are sure. the metric at the top of the screen. here you have the price in white and the short interest ratio, which has been picking up. in the middle, you have short interest, which has remained at a relatively high level. something else i am looking at is who is on the other side of the trade? chano iss short, carl icahn has something to do with getting that founder ousted . global, point state capital, a lot of hedge fund thatship of cheniere
chanos is going up against, essentially. still speaking in the conference, reiterating that expensive. "crazy" donald trump is holding off on releasing his tax returns. he says there is nothing new to learn. as somebody who saw trumps federal tax returns about a decade ago in which he sued me for libel, i think there are probably some things to be learned. tim o'brien joins me now. and you can read that on the bloomberg. tim: i saw the tax returns and i survived.
if i say anything about what i saw in those returns, the world will explode. so i have to be somewhat cautious about it. i did see them as part of the litigation. contrary to what donald has set about what the public can learn from them, there is a lot of interest in them. vonnie: i love the part, which is most of your commentary actually about debt and how there is so much focus on debt and donald trump and how he loves debt, but he does not have that a lot expensive sicily with the debt. that was in the context of the flip-flopping he has done in the last week about how he would take on the national debt and how he would manage $19 trillion in debt. he has referred to himself debt,edly as the king of
essentially saying that, based on his long history of that grosses and other problems managing debt, he would be a great steward of the national debt. he then proceeded to freak out the bond market. debt, essentially saying that, based -- theax returns really piece on the tax returns really focus on what we can learn and why it is a public interest. largely around such things as leaveis income my next be, what his charitable giving action might be, how he manages overseas.gs and i think just transparency and accountability for someone who is seeking the highest office in the land. vonnie: what are you at liberty to tell us about those returns you did see? tim: virtually nothing, unfortunately. vonnie: he argues that, because he is under audit, this is what is delaying him. 10: red herring. vonnie: there is a precedence for this.
tim: the irs has said that an audit never prevents a person from a leasing his or her tax returns. it's a nonissue. goes in thelater it process, is it more damaging or less damaging? is he better off holding up public support? or should he have done it earlier? witnessing someone who now, for better part of the year, has been able to say sensationalist things and sort of follow his own lights without any consequences. so i don't know, for his core supporters, i don't know how much it is really going to matter if he releases his tax returns. but i think for that middle swath of americans who remain unconvinced, i think he's got to think long and hard about how transparent he plans to be. vonnie: you learned a lot of things in tax returns, how companies deal with their businesses, how they deal with
charity. you learn how much they earn. why do you think is in those returns? tim: i think there are clearly things in returns that he is uncomfortable making public. and i think until he does that, that is going to be a question hanging over his head. ivc made a lot of hay over what he thinks might be in the returns and -- mitt romney obviously made a lot of hay over what he thinks might be in the returns and why donald trump will release them. vonnie: at this point, it is not silly to ask the question -- will he ever really have to release them? we have seen things in this election cycle that have no precedent. remember that there is no legal requirement or regulatory requirement that he released them. there's just 40 years of precedent of presidents doing this.
i've got a check back into this. reagan and bill clinton might have released their tax returns after they became president. but certainly the vast majority of candidates have released. and he is bucking the tradition. but bucking tradition is not an uncommon way of rolling for donald trump. nixon released his under audit. tim: yes, you can. vonnie: he hasn't released his birth certificate either. tim o'brien, bloomberg executive editor and columnist. thanks once again. ahead, we will check out how the options market is howling at today straight. ♪
bloomberg's julie hyman is standing by with how the options market is handling today's action. today is dane deming, manager at kk in financial and he is out in chicago at the cboe. dan, as we look at the action or lack thereof today, tell us what levels you are watching on the s&p 500 index because we have been sort of muddling along here. dan: exactly. a pretty crazy day actually. we are looking at the 50 day moving average on the s&p. we saw spx.
overall, 2050 three is a first level we are looking at in the 50 day moving average. julie: how concerned are you worried that's how concerned are drop.out the technology what does that tell us about the more recent uptrend we had been seeing in stocks? dan: it puts into question a little bit. i think some of the leadership wayne a little bit here. the trend still feels like it is a little bit lower. the 50 day moving average, 2050 level is another psychological standpoint. reach is there, coupled with the fact that we have seen the tech sector really breakthrough some key technical levels, that ultimately could lead to lower prices in the overall market. julie: i want to take a look at oil as well. your tray today's on the xle, an etf that tracks the oil industry. we've seen oil also kind of bounce all over the place over
days.st couple of of course, there were supply concerns because of the fires in canada. but that seems to have abated. you've got a risk reversal for your tray today. walk me through what you are looking at. dan: sure. etf onking at the xle the oil sector, the energy sector in general, i should say. it buys me a little bit of time to put in the stock. i'm taking advantage of the options, the decaying value of options, the premium levels. you look at the june risk reversal. you can put this off for a slight credit. basically, you collect a premium while you wait to be put into stock possibly at a better price. i get to the displayed on the upside if it breaks out. but i get to buy the stock cheaper if it backs off a little bit. julie: why would you want to buy the stock here? oil has honestly been very volatile. are you looking at a longer to
continued recovery? dan: i am. i am looking at the potential for any kind of poly -- fullback. it feels like that market is stabilizing moving forward. producerslooking at reining in some of the demand and the supply issues as well. i feel the trend is a little bit high here. over the next couple of month, i want to produce of a in that and the xle is a great way to participate in that. julie: thanks, always good to talk to you. chicago.g to us from up next is jim chanos talking about short on cheniere ♪
newsroom. mark: donald trump and paul ryan met against the backdrop of what ryan has called a bruising primary season. the speaker told reporters he and mr. trump share a goal of defeating the presumptive democratic nominee hillary clinton in november. >> i want to keep the things we discussed between the two of us because they are very important and they are personal in some senses. and that means we talked about what it takes to unify come up where our differences were and where we can bridge these gaps going forward, so we are strong as a party going into the fall. back tother trump held back meetings on capitol hill, first with speaker ryan and then with reince previous. esther ryan had a separate meetinwith senate gop -- mr. ryan had a separate meeting with senate gop leaders. numbers, crunched the and in the first quarter, heller a clinton $.70 of every dollar race.in the presidential
it is a big turnaround in the early part of the campaign. his allies got the biggest share of wall street money. by the pew center found that, a nearly one quarter of metro areas, middle-class adults no longer make up a majority. that is up from fewer than 10% in 2000. the plight of the middle class has become a major theme in the -- in the presidential race. is official, vice president michel temer has become acting president. president rousseff calls her suspension unfair. she says she will fight the charges with all her legal tools available. is expected to release a nationwide address
this hour. vonnie: thanks. about 30lose in minutes. abigail doolittle's live at the nasdaq, which is the laggard today. abigail: it has been a volatile day for the nasdaq. and one point, dragged on by technology and health care sectors. but those hectors -- those sectors have recovered to some degree. drag, apple shares are lower . having hit their lowest level in two years after the nikkei review said the taiwan shipment for iphones could stall for june and december. we take a look at a one-your chart and see shares trading in a trading range of uncertainty
in the battle of the bowls in the bears -- the bulls and the bears. another drag today is netflix. thissweeney saying that could largely be a case of a bad here inck going in addition, netflix did announce the laying a planned price hike. and subscriber growth is somewhat weak. the bullish uptrend is starting pretty brashly. it looks like last year's top stock in the nasdaq 100 could really prove to be one of the worst. vonnie: if it is one momentum stock going bad, there must be one that is going good. abigail: you are right about that. a prime example of a momentum speed orhering bullish
going right, amazon shares are now higher five days in a row, up about 9% over that time period. today, the lack of newsworthy bullish momentum and -- lack of news or really bullish momentum. we start to see a pretty big to virgins. it could -- big divergence. vonnie: thank you. the political drama in brazil going on for months and months. but after the events of the last 24 hours, "what's you miss?" will be covering it later. joe: we talked about the imminent vote yesterday on the show. i welcome up this morning and
realized they still hadn't voted. ultimately, they did vote. to begined, they voted the impeachment proceedings in the upper house against president dilma rousseff not only that, what they voted in favor was by an overwhelming amount. which means, not only does it go forward, but it looks likely, that theoretically the most will be there to remove her at the end of the trial. vonnie: all the focus and the screw new ghost to the new -- and the screw knee goes to the new figure? joe: absolutely. the new president, the acting president has already appointed a cabinet. he has already appointed a finance minister. theoretically, the new on could be off to the races. michel temer and her -- rousseff
and her allies have said that they will fight this every way they can. but for now, it is going forward. it was in all buy on the rumors and sell on the -- joe: we had the anxiety the last couple of days whether it would happen. the head of the lower house said, oh, the original vote was invalid. it looked like that would be a setback. what is some relief that everyone expected to happen actually did happen. you know have a new finance minister, which is the most and port in thing. he comes out of harvard. he may not be your typical finance mr. but he has a financial background. joe: everybody says that this will be keyed. the new administration has to be more investor friendly and business friendly and reformed. ,e all know what that means labor market reforms and cutting spending and reining in the
deficit and all that. we will see if it exit happens. what they do on those fronts will be the big question. vonnie: right. i was just looking at the rates. the two years at 12.5% right now. so we have some real challenges ahead for brazil. who will be talking about it? joe: we will be talking to and i had written from the bureau down there and getting the latest to an- we will be talking edgarton from the bureau down there and getting the latest. callingjim chanos cheniere energy crazy expensive. ♪
markets." let's head back to the salt conference in las vegas. jim chanos reiterated his short on cheniere energy. erik schatzker joins us again from las vegas. abouthis presentation was cheniere. why should near, jim -- why cheniere, jim? that is a stock you have been shorts as last summer. jim: i think we want to take advantage to lay it all out to make people understand why this equity is much more risky than people think. and really to dispel any notions about what the bear case is. just announcedny
a new ceo. sitting at the chair change anything for you? jim: no. every company has a ceo. i think he has a great revocation. some ceos are better operators and others. jim: but you don't find that out until hindsight. we'll see. i wish him the best. he will have his hands full with the balance sheet. eri let's talk about that. why he won't better management make it a better company? or at least not a good enough company? jim: because most of the levers here are beyond his control. companies take for pay strategy is good. i think the stock is dramatically overvalued.
that theyprojections put out last year. i think those projections are quite optimistic for a variety of reasons that i went to in my presentation. erik: things i cost control. jim: and maintenance and capital spending. is the problem is that there looming capacity in the lng business globally. and this is a global market. 's take or pay contracts are good, all of the upside to the story depends on that we thinket just won't be there and the ceo cannot control it. erik: why not? if the oil rally continues, why will we see gas prices rally? jim: it is lng prices. that is the key thing. lng demand has been flat for a handful of years. but the supply is increasing. so it's got its own -- that's why we like it on the short side
more so than the other inergy stories. because it does have its own dynamics playing out in this couple of years. to talk aboutike how you are short cheniere while longicahn and others are cheniere. i'm assuming you are doing your work and coming to your own conclusions. carl has been a successful investor. you have any misgivings about going short on any company that other investors are long? jim: what you have to understand is that every idea stands on its own merit. ideasybody who invests on because of names and not because of doing the work, i think takes additional risks. in this case, we have laid out our bear case. i would like to see their bull c ase, as a poster who it is. it's why that is important. erik: at the very least, carl claims to have played in the
ouster of charif souki. was that good for cheniere? jim: once the contracts are signed in the construction was underway come i think probably they needed a new leader so i would agree with that. but a lot of this is arty set in stone at this point. all the things it could go wrong only add to the story from the bear case. again, we are using the company's projections. if there is anything we have learned is that companies can be a little bit too optimistic. erik: what about the rest of the energy complex? jim: we are not making any productions on oil. i think part of the problem with the energy space is the dynamics of the businesses. you can belong the commodity and be short the companies. i think there is a lot of agency
risk in the energy business. in allows people to have their hands up if we get paid as a shareholder. you saw the chesapeake debt equity swap this morning. the other problem i have is the two big models we look at domestically, expiration production business and then the large integrated companies, like shell, both have their own set of problems. i don't think that unity model in north america is economic. and i don't think it was economic even at $80 or $100 oil. it certainly is not economic at $40 oil. those look at most of companies are within spitting distance now their all-time highs or close to it. off itsexxon is 10% highs. those highs increasingly are being. value to their dividend streams. chevron andook at world that's, which are two companies we are short, both of those companies had negative free cash flow in the first quarter. those are sort of touch her boss
kind of numbers. -- petrobras kind of numbers. that means they should borrow to pay their dividend. how long will that be sustainable? we don't know. erik: you were short more names in the nt, or you? you? the e&p, weren't jim: yes. a lot of stocks that we were short had 20 dollars or $30 were trading in civil digits. a number of those names have rallied since mid february, backup 200%, 300%, and are certain to look interesting again. erik: they are looking potentially attractive as shorts. jim: yes. havenk the stock prices outrun the oil price. they are discounting in some cases $60 to $80 oil. and we are at $45. and in many cases, going up the mostar action actually more weighted to natural gas than oil.
-- erik: what is a going to take for them to inspire a short position? jim: we want to see what is going on with their free cash flows. case on oil,ull and i think it is a valid one, is that american production will drop off. it is dropping. it's not plummeting. but it's dropping. we want to stewart goes. -- we want to see where it goes. erik: where does the price look most? disconnected from the oil price jim: there is a number of the european integrated oil. but they are all of there. they are all up there discounting oil prices. erik: and why still short shell and chevron? of their debt
levels and their heavy reliance on lng. lng and royal dutch of the biggest players. erik: what are the shares you closed out recently? [laughter] jim: i don't know. we close our things all the time. one set of names we closed out last year that would be of ourrest is we closed out macau casino short. so-called that the second derivative would get people excited, which it has, meaning that the rate of decline of revenues would actually [indiscernible] it's still declining, but not at 30%. it is sort of defining it 10% to 15%. wall street being wall street, without people would get excited and they did. erik: how much of your view on energy is structural? it is certainly structural in the sense as it applies to alan g. you've got a ton of supply coming on the market. it is not just stock-specific to
cheniere. leveraging cost. but how much of that view extends to the rest of the complex? do you think there is a bear case to be made for energy stocks around the world as we go forward? jim: on a global traded crude oil, there are four more people smarter than me and they have gotten bullish. i don't know, there are so many different parts to try to forecast the price of oil. i would much rather try to narrow it down to a subsystem like lng, where i can really granular early look at demand and supply and make an educated analysis about this. whereas, if i am looking at global oil, i need to think about what demand in china is, how much is going to strategic reserves, things i can't know. the lng stuff is pretty noble. erik: we aren't going -- pretty knowable. erik: we are going to see the
ipo for quite a while. the one of the concerns is long-term price of oil and whether we get a move to electric cars and trucks, which will have a huge impact on long-term demand. 80% of petroleum demand is in transportation. we are looking at it. but this is far out here at -- far out. erik: another stocks you have taken a close look at and i believe are short in connection with energy is solar city. jim: yeah. erik: what i'm curious to know -- and you criticized it for being a financing company when people think of it as a solar company. jim: yeah. erik: what other companies did that profile. there are financing companies that are perceived to be something else. jim: you have seen the collapse
of the online lenders in the past few weeks. underscored an interesting aspect. the growth of shadow banking again in the u.s.. businesses that really do finance their customers and depend on that for a large choice of income -- large source of income. you can look in areas such as timeshares in vegas, areas such as retailing, things like forlry retailers and others all the money is being made on .inancing you your wedding ring and a long-term contract to service your wedding ring. it is sort of like circuit city in the old days selling you a contract to service your tv set. servicing your wedding ring? and then some of the auto retailers, some of the specialized auto retailers make an awful lot of money financing
their customers with used cars off the lot. i don't want to name any additional names, but there are lots of areas where this is happening in the u.s. right now. erik: were you active in london? jim: we were. we were short one of the big ones that blow up. we were short lending club. erik: what inspired you to go short in the first place? jim: because we had problems with the model itself. erik: that stock has completely blown up. have you closed at the short? jim: no comment. erik: why not? jim: i can't give you a comment on that. erik: on a structural level, what looks like they are becoming wildly divorced from the fundamentals? jim: it fits into what we are talking about, the industrial commodity. erik: iron ore, for example. jim: yeah, copper.
far more ofave had a run than the combined it is have.our -- commodities have gone back down. -- iron ore has given up all its gains. so a lot of the big plays that have gone up 100% in a couple of months did so in the back that we were entering a new commodity cycle and china was re-stimulating and real demand was picking up, when in fact it was just a speculative trading bubble in china on a lot of these commodities. erik: since you mentioned china, i have to ask. i know that you agree with kyle theom when it comes to existence of a credit bubble in china. jim: we have been talking about that for a while. but do you agree that the way to express their views through the currency? jim: we are not currency specialists, so i will defer to
people like kyle and others who are betting on the currency, using different derivatives. china is sort of a comprehensive aspect of global growth. , there have been all kinds of way to play that we would be mark off the ball. stocks in the minors, for example. we are back looking at some of the chinese financial institutions, which had been a focus of hours early in our story in 2010, 2011. the assetk looking at management companies, the big banks, the medium tier banks, and some of the japanese shadow lenders. get -- it's going to interesting. whether the currency goes up or down, i don't know.
if it does devalue, i think our shores will do fine. erik: jim, thanks very much. that's jim chanos, funny, here at the salt conference in las vegas. vonnie: sounds fantastic and interesting ideas. thanks, eric, for delving into those with jim chanos. stocks on pace to close. let's talk a little bit about volatility in this market. >> we had some pretty big moves. i think this is sort of exactly what happens when we get to these levels. people will have been in this market the past year kind of expect this. when you get to 2015, you get close to the high from last year. things start getting a little bit wobbly. i think it is what you are seeing in the past couple of weeks, the average daily move in the s&p has don quite a bit larger. it has been an average 1% move.
has volume moved at all? oliver: it's tricky. low.n all, it is way when you look back to where it was, when we were losing all that money in the middle of february, it doesn't quite compare and things are moving down fast. there's a lot of different ways to look at volume. bonnie: thanks. you can check out his top stories on the bloomberg. that is it for "bloomberg markets." you have indices mixed or flat. here are the major averages. -- and up six points at the nasdaq lower.
and this is "what'd you miss?" ♪ u.s. stocks closing at a mix this afternoon. apple is at the lowest level in nearly two years. joe: this is "what'd you miss?" an investor carl icahn recently doubled down on a bid. joe: plus, brazil has a new acting president. an shellshocked investors look for clues on the industry's hell. minutes --es in just industry's help. those stories in just minutes. the major index get most of the gains leading little right now. the big mover of course was apple trading near