tv With All Due Respect Bloomberg May 15, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT
mark: welcome to "best of with all due respect." it was a big week for the republican party. a high-profile meeting between donald trump and party leaders and there was no shortage of press coverage. >> paul ryan, reince priebus, and donald trump behind closed doors. the donald visits d.c. >> mr. trump goes to washington. >> mr. trump goes to washington. >> why didn't we think of that? mr. trump goes to washington.
an event so big, it requires not one box, not two, not three, not four, not five. mark: it was quote, a great day in d.c. that's how donald trump described his meeting with leaders on capitol hill. the press got there early to report trump's major meetings. he met with reince priebus. he also spoke with mitch mcconnell. ryan and trump released a joint statement that said impart quote, while we were honest about our differences, we recognize they were many important differences where there was common ground. we are totally committed to working together to achieve that goal.
trump later tweeted quote, great day in d.c. things working out really well. this afternoon, trump reportedly met with james baker and lindsey graham, the senator from south carolina who had been anti-trump. you may recall that graham may seem to be warming to trump. although he still said that he would not be voting for either clinton or trump. so, why if anything -- what if anything was accomplished to date with trumps visit along with paul ryan? nicole: ryan is a rising star in the republican party. i'm more intrigued by the
potential political opportunity of donald trump beginning to get hold onold -- a tell national security. trump is more of a realist than towards by the view bush -- george w. bush. mark: the fact that graham took the call, they talked at length. there's no doubt that the focus of the ryan meeting is the focus. he also met with senate strategist that told him how he can win. trump is not a known figure to most of these folks. the fact that he said at extended meetings and listened a lot. . these men and women want someone
the party can trust. nicolle: why is ryan so accommodating at this moment? mark: i'm surprised at how far he went. he really tried to accentuate the positive in every moment. a bunch of republicans have endorsed trump the last several days. kevin mccarthy, the number two republican in the house, greg walden who heads the house campaign committee. a bunch of campaign chairs. i don't think those endorsements leave ryan any choice. i think ryan realizes now that trump can win and he wants to have trump a partner in governing. nicole: it is interesting to me that trump and ryan are different on policy as ryan and hillary clinton may be. maybe more.
they are diametrically opposed on policy, on trade, on foreign policy. entitlement reform, you could go on and on. i think when you look back. it is when people reach across the partisan divide. this made the rare instance -- this may be the rare instance where republicans are doing the longer grab. mark: but they do agree on some stuff. on the politics. they want hillary clinton to lose and that will be the big unifying thing. ryan and donald trump agree that they have differences. you mentioned some of them. which do you think are the ones that will matter? not if trump wins and ryan remains speaker, but which differences do you think cannot be tapered over? nicole: having covered
campaigns, it is the economy. i think that winding some -- finding some economic message, it does not make paul ryan cringe about donald trump's appetite for trade wars. and sort of isolationism on the economic front. i think those are differences that are so fundamental. if you look at the public paul ryan record. mark: why couldn't trump rewrite his tax plan? nicolle: while trump can, paul ryan cannot. trump is not wed to any of his policies. mark: i think they will have to agree to disagree on immigration. the entitlement reform, i think ryan can move. i think trump can make the switch. if we will conserve them for the next set of beneficiaries, i think trump can make that switch. nicolle: i think we'll know more about his appetite for doing something that is very unpopular.
his comfort zone is doing what he thinks his economic populist base wants to hear. they don't want to hear that they will get less when it comes to entitlement. mark: you can pretend it's not going to be less, it is just going to be different. the big thing for me is tax reform. i think trump could change his plan and ryan could be happy. nicolle: i think you're right about that. so, all of this said, the you -- do you think the rhine endorsements is almost imminent or probable? mark my hunch is they don't want : to make it a big deal. he could sort of ease into it. i think he went a long way today. it is inevitable now. i can't imagine he could back down, particularly because so many of his colleagues have gotten on board. i think he can say i have gotten to know him and i am now comfortable with him being a better president than hillary
clinton, but someone that we can work with to change the country. trump was running not just against washington, but against the republican party. bill clinton did the same in 1992 and then he turned a little bit. he ran more against both parties and the washington culture. once he reaches that point, i think ryan will endorse him. nicolle: i think it's likely. i don't take it imminent. i think ryan is such an and social force in the conservative movement. i think there is an element of therapy. it speaks to his talent and complexity that we did not know he has. i think this is going to be harder than ryan can make it look. mark: up next, a trump advisor and a ryan advisor will be here to talk about their meeting in washington after this break. ♪
here now, to guys with winning personalities. gentleman, welcome. barry, it seemed like a series of successful meetings today. what did you think of the meeting with secretary of state baker? besides the fact that everybody thought, what do you think concrete was accomplished today. very: i think a lot of them got to meet donald trump for the first time. i think what they will find is that he has a big, engaging personality. some of their pre-conceived notions start to erode away. mark: anything that causes you to say that you won't stand with -- i'm not going to stand with the bushes and the mitt romney's.
>> one outcome would have been for him to come endorsed trump for outcome three which is him saying no i will not endorse him or outcome three of which is what occurred. we had a constructive discussion. we've got to keep the communication channel effectively, donald trump is on trial and i'm going to work with him. for the most senior republican in the country to come out of a meeting with the presumptive nominee and say i'm so not ready to endorse is not inconsequential. mark: what is the implication of it if his going to endorse? dan i don't know that he will. : i think he probably will. but he wants to see if he and trump 10 work together and get
trump educated enough that he feels comfortable that he is actually a conservative. i don't believe he is. i don't think a lot of people think he is. i think what would have been in dangerous -- would have been dangerous is for him to endorse him and then trump revert back to his schoolyard antics. and then have all out there sort of completely embarrass because he has endorsed this guy who is bouncing around. mark: you were a trump skeptic when you were working for ben carson. when you look at this, what is the psychological profile you see? [laughter] berry: he's at the final stage. i've been in dance shoes. when john mccain was running, i was never mccain. there was no way, no how. i wrote him a check and voted
for him. dan you're comparing trump to : mccain? no, i'm saying we did not like our eventual nominee. dan: there's not a single issue that donald trump has embraced that is a self respecting conservative say that i actually believe that. and that he will govern with. barry: that is your opinion. nicolle: so you and i worked for a lot of the same people. i believe that the people we work with believe at the time. where did we lose the base of our party? dan: there's a complete crackup going on in the economy and the electorate across europe and the united states. everyone is experiencing this intense socio-economic stratification.
you see it in the u k. you see it in france. in austria,election poland, hungary. look at what is happening with the republican party. look what is happening with bernie sanders. it is happening all over the place. we are experiencing the symptoms across theorate board that just wants to blow the whole thing up. i get that. i think there's a lot to learn on this process that we have lost some of our party as the democrats have. the idea that the vessel for that outrage, frustration, that loss, should be a guy who does not believe in anything. i really don't believe he believes in anything. mark: what is the cost to beat trump campaign to not have all rhine right now? -- what is the cost to the trump campaign to not have paul ryan right now, to not have the bushes, to not have mitt romney? is there a cost to winning?
barry: if you look at the last few polls, frankly, not much. the republicans are coming home. it should not be surprising to anyone that washington is the last place that would come around. inl, the bushes do not live washington. nicolle: i think his supporters view going to washington and trying to make up to the establishment as a potential landmine. as potentially it positive. dan: in 2008 after mccain had the nomination locked up, he was 7-10 points ahead of obama. taking a snapshot of these polls is a mistake. if trump came out today and said i'm for expanding obamacare, not shrinking it. not expanding it, basically taking the position that bill
clinton has per it if trump is that would you be ok with it? >> no. dan: so how do you reconcile his complete flip on a tough reform plan? barry >> i don't believe it is a complete let. -- complete flip. all you hear is what you want to hear. he said you're not going to get the tax cut that i want. you have to go through congress to get it. dan: what about entitlement reform? he said i don't want to do what -- i don't want to have to deal with entitlements. barry: i don't want to waste my time to convince you. all he wants to do is make sure nobody gets hurt and we can do that.
dan: is what he says publicly different from what he wants to do? barry: i think the way you interpret things for forward -- dan i do. barry: he doesn't want to hurt seniors. dan: when you are running for office, words matter. he has set a lot of words. you're asking me to discard his words. mark: what are your feelings as an analyst about whether or not trump has a chance to win the election? dan: politics is about probabilities. you have to apply probability. do i think trump has a 30% chance, a 40% chance of winning? sure. do i think he has an above 50% chance? no. as an analyst, you look at it and say he doesn't have a shot. i think the idea of someone like donald trump being commander in
chief and having the potential to recap it in the world, i think the message it would send to the world is that the 30% scares me. that is actually high. mark: what if he chooses someone as his running mate who is a respected national security figure. dan: my impression watching donald trump -- i am not a close advisor, but i am an observer -- but people in positions he picks them up and then drops them. he embraces someone because he needs them. look at the way he has treated chris christie. whether it is issues or people, he picks them up and drops them. at the end of the day, he is the commander-in-chief or could be. he has to reassure voters, the country that he has the chops and credentials, the judgment and temperament to be commander-in-chief. i don't believe the running mate changes it. i take donald trump at his word.
mark: bob gates were his running mate it would have to affect the review. nicolle: i want to ask you both. was there any part of paul ryan that was dying on the inside/crying on the inside. was there any part of these men that was dying on the inside for both of these men? barry: i don't think so. dan: paul ryan is a political leader of ideas. he has been involved in the ideas debate for a long time. i think watching the conservative movement fold to this guy who is just using it, i think is difficult. he is also the leader of a party and he is trying to strike this balance. mark: dawn trump used paul ryan's name as a last line at
his event could will he keep doing that? rf didn't -- or after today, no more? barry: i would not expect him -- i mean there are suddenly all these brand-new conservatives that have not -- i have not seen at the meetings for decades that are concerned about the conservative legacy. it is laughable. dan: i agree that it is laughable. i think it is a rare fatigue that washington republicans have not then concerned with developing a real agenda. the idea that donald trump is the antidote to that, who has never been embraced or engaged or advocated for a conservative idea in his life? barry: let me tell you
something. politics are important. how we talk about them are far more important and that's where we really have failed. the reason we get 45% is because nobody thinks we even care, let alone listen. donald trump is changing that. mark: ok, i want you to go back to your careers and have molted's. -- have malteds. thank you guys both. great discussion. up next to the general election game plan of the super pacs supporting hillary clinton. ♪
john: we're going to try to break that today and speak the truth. looking at the way republicans ran against donald trump, what have you learned about what works -- not much -- or what didn't work. guy: ignoring him did not work. waiting to the last minute does not work, but i also think what did not work is having an electorate comprised only of republican primary goers. i think there are some super pac ads that will be successful. john: like what? guy: i think that talking about his comments around women, the comments around prisoners of war. i think they are pretty powerful. one of the great things is that they give us an opportunity to test the ad in our own at testing. we are thankful for not only the money spent, but for helping us
as we get ready for the general. mark: is it true you will eventually show ads showing american workers that were, in their view, hurt by donald trump's economic business? guy: i think we will show a whole host of people that were or would be hurt by his policies. he attacked hillary on trade, but brags about hiring workers from bangladesh and china. we will focus on his business record. on his temperament and character, and on how he approaches national security and foreign policy. john: do you believe if early advertising is effective it will limit any chance for him to win? guy: i think we will have to go until the end. donald trump knows no boundaries. he is not a conventional candidate. he does not wage a conventional
campaign. and i think that will require us to be on our toes all the way through election day, and not to just do it on television. that is one of the reasons why we are investing 20 $2 million online, not like most super a creditt based him voters, millennial voters, unlike a lot of previous independent efforts, that will be a big part of the operation. john: his lack of convention has been on display for several months. he is now out reprising his attacks on president clinton, president clinton's personal life. a very loud way. what does your research tell you about the resonance of those kinds of attacks, if any? >> i can tell you his history is a pretty good guide to what happens when you attack president clinton in a personal way. if you look at the fact that that 1998 was the only election in modern history where the president's party did
not lose seats. mark 20 earlier about it being built into the stock. no, it was your point. what also the way hillary is handling it is the exact right way. the other thing we learned from the republican primary is the way to beat donald trump is not to become him, not get in the blitznstantly and try to the content of this election. i think is what hillary is going to do. john: do you have data that suggests television advertising is effective in a general campaign? donenumber of studies internal to the institute and other tests we have done so the right combination of television and digital can work together to communicate with voters. i don't think a one-size-fits-all approach is going to work. 90% of your broadcast money in television which is what i'll trump did -- john: your ratio will be what?
>> probably 40-60. mark: campaigns look at the performance of their super pac's by the end of the campaign as that, oh, they didn't do what we wanted. they weren't running the right stuff. are you going to avoid that? --i think 2012 is a gate great example of super pac's doing great work. mark: people complained about it nonstop. >> but it was a top testing ad of the entire cycle. so versus do no harm, but we want to tell the trials -- truth about donald trump. we feel confident we have a path forward on how to do that. reserves million of airtime. you talked about uplifting the tone of the campaign. what percentage of the $91 million to spend on positive ads spurs's negative ads? -- versus negative ads?
maybe a quarter, a third? i think a lot of work the clinton campaign will do will be positive. it will aggregate itself out. john: but you don't make any pretenses to the notion that recorders will be negative, that doesn't indicate the tone of the campaign? >> i think is the same thing for donald trump to be take talking about what he talks about and for us to talk about his record. it is ok for us to contrast records, tell the truth about our appointment. advocate hisldn't divorce or his bankruptcies? >> we will look at his whole business record, but the personal life, that is not something we will do, and it does not work. john: with the potential trump attacks against hillary clinton, where do you think she is most vulnerable? what do you have to protect? >> i do think there is a misconception about her record on trade. the fact of the matter is when she was in the senate, she voted against trade agreements she thought were unfair.
the one thing we have learned from the primary and a last five days is, you never know what he is going to say. so we have to be prepared as we can to take him on in any particular instance, and that is white not only will we be up on june 8 as reported but also earlier. john: guy cecil, thank you for being here. always a pleasure. mark: still ahead, we added mark to the equation the great mark , mckinnon. ♪
politics. thank you for coming. little anthony: my hat is off to you. mark: clement last you to look into the soul of donald trump and then hillary clinton. what is your read on donald trump? mark mckinnon: it is a classic situation where you get somewhere on your own instinct and got, and then you have everybody sort of trying to say, now you have got to evolve, you have got to give it. so you have your family saying let donald b donald. he has that dynamic going and the reflex is to be donald trump and go with -- dance with what brought him here, which is what continues to do. as you know, as you have been saying, there are a thousand decisions he has to make in a very short time. that is the largest circle -- logistical question. -- heds of the pay, and
needs of bp and the clinton campaign is already locked and loaded. mark: a donald trump family wanting to be himself, but they are arguing that we need to bring in additional help. mark mckinnon: they are the only people that can really do that. mark: what about hillary clinton? mark mckinnon: i think that she, the best thing you could ever have in a candidate is learned more from losing than winning. she understands there is two ways to run. there is one way to run which is to run scared or unopposed. she and the whole campaign understand you have to run like your 10 points behind. and trump obviously is a very different sort of thing she has to face. there is no playbook, there is no film to watch. so they are completely cognizant of that fact. john: we talked about that the trump oaks are going to
cleveland to the what is going on and get a lay of the land. you talked about the fact they are promising an extravaganza unlike any other convention in the history of the republican convention. how hard is that to pull off? mark mckinnon: it is very hard. i have been in a lot of different conventions. taking care of entertainment, and i have been in discussions where they say will this will be different, we will be out of the box. and then the mechanics set in, the physics set in and is hard to do something different. donald trump has a background in entertainment and understands how to do things differently. but he just hired a talent agency to get talent. i am telling them right now they will have a lot of trouble finding a list entertainment to come out and be featured at the republican convention. john: meet me at camera to. the other thing about donald trump is that he does not
attract a lot of hollywood stars . he got sports figures, popular culture. he seemed to be able to play. he will not get holiday liberals -- liberals on his side. but there is a category of figures and cultural figures he is connected to. mark mckinnon: yeah coaches sports figures, tom brady. ,there is an element of celebrity he will bring back to the table. a lot of people were coming for the celebrity. they want to say, i saw him. there is an element to that to be a part of the trump brand. john: i think howard stern. mark: and an empty chair. give me three factors. mark mckinnon: i think he will do better than clint eastwood. mark: give me three factors that will be as big in determining against trump. mark mckinnon: i think an external event could swing -- mark: martian invasion,
something unknown. you think that is funny? mark mckinnon: an economic cataclysm of some kind like what happened in 2008. and, you know, in many cases we say the vp doesn't matter. i think it will make a difference. mark: what about three things that they can control? vp they can control, but what about other things? mark mckinnon: the most important thing they can control is the debate. this will be the most watched debate in all of history. readings will be off the charts. people will be watching this around the globe, not just the united states. that will be the most important thing by far, and they can control that. john: you wrote in time magazine about these new lgbt laws and on the republican party is the wrong side of those issues. it seems interesting that trump
wins where he went on the bathroom law. is there a way in which not just the way republicans alone, that trump's cultural liberalism as a new yorker may benefit him with these generational issues. mark mckinnon: i think it will help them. that is one of his assets. on issues where republicans need to be more progressive, need to be more compassionate, he is heading in the right direction. he is heading were society is heading. -- where society is heading. these laws that are happening in north carolina, for example, when we think about all of the things the republican party has trouble with strategically and what it ought to be thinking about and spending its time concerned about in terms of like --lgbt rather rights is on nobody's list. how would you enforce that? nobody cares about it. it is not a problem, you cannot enforce it, but that is a message to voters. republicans have their head in
the sand back in the 15th century of them of this stuff. it sends a bad signal. that is a good turn for trump that he is shying away from some of those archaic approaches. mark: do you think other republicans have not moved on this issue because they are doing it out of principle or because they are worried about a backlash from their base? john: i never want to exclude the possibility this was political correctness. society has gone haywire, they are deeply rooted evangelical christians. but in many cases, there at least some element of political calculation and they think they would lose votes, secure votes by private bid for voters that will never come their way anyway because they have views on other issues. mark mckinnon: will the next president -- mark: will the next president support legal and gay marriage? mark mckinnon: they will have to. john: you don't think george
bush would have done it? mark mckinnon: there was an evolution for it. he had a lot of staffers around him and people that worked in that were gay, and he got enlightened about it over time. mark: i could have told them that early on. you said the vice president thing matters a lot. if donald trump said i can get anybody i want to say yes who , should i pick? mark mckinnon: i actually think the latest rumor about bob corker, that is a sensible approach. a guy -- mark: but anybody. trump says magically anybody i want will say yes. mark mckinnon:: powell. powell. mark: more than kendall is a rice? -- condoleezza rice. mark mckinnon: yeah. mark: same thing for hillary clinton, i get anyone i want, who would she picked? mark mckinnon: colin powell,
condoleezza rice. mark mckinnon: the interesting thing in this equation is the conventional route to go is to shore up your weakness, do something that gives you geographic diversity, ethnic diversity, ideologically diversity. , there is some value to the notion that going unconventional, go the bill clinton route, double down on your strength, find somebody who is also a maverick unconventional. so i think they will see that valuable for trump. mark: mark mckinnon of the circus. when we come back, a very special presentation from a friend of the show, jeff daniels. after this word from our sponsors. ♪
john: a couple days ago, a friend of the show, jeff daniels stopped by the set for a little interview. he was previously the star of the things including hbo's newsroom in which he played a news anchor. if you have nothing that show, you have probably seen the most famous scene from the very first episode, where he launches into an impromptu tirade about whether america is really the greatest country in the world. we asked jeff if he was willing to reprise that seen in the context of the 2016 race. but before you show you that reprisal let's take a look at , the original to refresh your memory. >> can you say in one sentence or less why -- [laughter] can you say why america is the greatest country in the world? >> the new york jets. [laughter] no, i'm going to hold you to an answer on that.
what makes america the greatest country in the world? i'm not letting you go back to the airport without answering the question. why is america -- >> it's not the greatest country in the world, professor. that's my answer. john: so that's how it starts. , let's take a look at our special updated version. scripted by the great director. mark: so can you say in one sentence or less, all right, you know what i mean. can you say why donald trump is the best case scenario for hillary clinton? >> i think for the first time in election history, her opponent might donate to her campaign. going to hold you to an answer on that. what makes donald trump the best case scenario for hillary clinton? ♪
i'm not letting you go back to the airport without giving me an actual actual answer. >> he's not the best case scenario. john, that is my answer. donald trump is a fact bending loose cannon that alienates mainstream voters with everything he says, but he gets constant media attention for free. there won't be a day from now until november when trump is on -- is not on every tv channel. with a straight face you are , going to tell me electing a woman is unprecedented? germany elected a female chancellor. , denmark poland, korea, norway, cyprus, they are run by women. 22 sovereign states in the world have already beat us on that. john: ok, fine. >> ok game change guy, in case , you actually find yourself writing a third book, there are things you should know. and one of them is there is absolutely no evidence to support the statement that trump is the best case scenario for hillary clinton.
38% of the people gave her a favorable rating. 37% said she is honest and trustworthy. and just 22% of democrats say they are enthusiastic about her being the nominee. , she leads in messages on e-mail servers, but if you ask what makes trump the best case scenario hillary? i don't know what -- you are talking about? his tiny hands? mark: we'll be right back. ♪
david: welcome to "bloomberg businessweek." we are inside the headquarters. in this week's new thing how , will history judge fed chair janet yellen? trouble in paradise, and a company that might be sitting of the biggest oilfield in america. all that and more ahead on "bloomberg businessweek." ♪ carol: i am carol massar and i am here with the magazine's editor ellen pollack. you guys run a section about how banks are cutting off charity. ellen: they are not cutting off