tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg May 16, 2016 2:00pm-3:01pm EDT
david: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm david gura. oil surges, hitting a six-month high, this after goldman sachs has security issues have worked out the surplus. how is texas doing with the fluctuations in oil prices the governor of texas greg abbott joins us in the studio to talk about that and the state of the republican party. $17 billion holds in u.s. treasuries. providing some answers but raising more questions. stocks are at session highs. ramy inocencio has the latest. ramy: the dow, s&p, and the nasdaq at 1% higher or so.
up nearly 20 points. the nasdaq up by 66 points. green, especially what happened on friday. we have basically erased our losses from friday. it is as if the past two days there really happened. about, itas talking is an energy-led rally. hownt to show you exactly green we are in terms of sectors. energy is up by nearly 1.6%. it has been the biggest leader by sector for the entire day. information technology not far behind. had been inerials the number two position, now in the number three position. take a look at where oil has been going to run the day. just at session highs by a
little more than 3%. highis still a six-month not seen since november 4. goldman sachs increasing its full-year price in cast to $44.60 a barrel from $38 36 cents a barrel. militant attacks in nigeria have been pushing down production, a cut of 30% or so. and there has been increasing demand. of this, take a look at what is happening with oil majors. williams company, the biggest riser by 5.3%. the same for apache. energyn and devon up about 4%. david: what are we seeing in safe havens? as you might expect, they are moving where you think they
would be going. ramy: generally speaking, up for most of the day. 10:00, buttdown at we are still up by about .1%. year to date, definitely seeing a gold rush up and. up by more than 20%. this, holdings in gold etf's have been surging about 20%. the reason for that, concern from central bank policies and negative rate interest policies. take a look at the 10-year. up the most, at session highs, 1.75%. david: thank you, ramy inocencio. now let's get a check on the first word news with shery ahn. >> the voters go to the polls tomorrow. hillary clinton visited a union center in louisville. bernie sanders campaigned in the state. today, sanders is in puerto rico
talking about the debt crisis ahead of the primary on june 5. floridarump says senator marco rubio is not under consideration for vice president. reportedington post" that ted cruz and chris christie were being considered as possible running mates, but donald trump tweeted that the list is wrong and most mentioned are not being considered. bus company involved in a fatal accident that killed eight people over the weekend has a history of maintenance issues. last year, louisiana inspectors twice ordered the company to take one of its buses off the roads to fix break an emergency exit problems. more than 40 others were also injured in the rollover crash. haverities in colombia intercepted more than eight tons of cocaine and what they say is the country's largest seizure ever. the drugs were found in an
underground hole located on a banana farm 300 miles from bogota. three were arrested in the operations. authorities say the drug are ready to be sent to central america, bound for the u.s. david: when it comes to the credit markets, it is all about risk versus reward. to bloombergoke earlier today. he shared his thoughts on why investors should favor credit over equities. >> we see value in credit right now. we see value in the investment grade market, high yield, and specifically in non-agency mortgages. we think they have a very attractive risk reward right now. given they are not making more of these bonds and fundamentally housing prices continue to rise, these bonds offer very good
risk-adjusted returns. we think now is a good time to increase credit. >> you went from 10% to 20% junk. anywhere near that? >> know, we are not. by no means does that suggest we are going to 20%. we just wanted the added flexibility. what we see around the world is low yields. if you look at what's happening in germany and japan, 70% of the bond market is negative yield. a year ago, only 8% of the bond indices had negative yield. today, 30% have negative yield. investors are looking for income. that should favor select credit investments, specifically, housing related set yours, consumer sectors. credit is a good opportunity for investors to learn -- her near equity returns with significantly less volatility. you expect the
sweet spot in the u.s., given we are seeing defaults pickup, we are seeing stress in a variety of different markets? >> within the high-yield market, you want to be a bit more selective. 9,were on your show february and we said when oil was below 30, that it would recover to 50. at the time, that was controversial. toadded a lot of energy risk our portfolio three months ago. now we would not advocate buying high-yield energy or commodities. in fact, we are reducing that risk. but there is some value in building materials, many areas in health care that look attractive. active management is key. you want to be more selective now in high-yield given the rally. >> how concerned are you about liquidity risk when you go into the sectors, especially given the fact that the total return fund is a mutual fund and gives
investors daily liquidity with potential to redeem? >> we are sitting on a significant amount of cash in our credit portfolio. that gives us a position of strength. when the market is dislocated, back in january and february, the reality is, we were one of the only buyers in the energy sector. we were able to step into a market that was completely dislocated and by very cheap assets. now those assets are up 10, 20 points. when short-term traders like hedge funds need to get out of position, long-term investors like pimco can step in and capitalize on that. when these markets dislocate, that is a huge advantage for pimco. >> there are a couple of items that are looming. brexit in june and then the u.s. elections. to what extent are you pricing in geopolitical risks?
>> looking at the treasury curve, the market is expecting less than one hike this year, less than two next year. the market clearly is pricing the risk in. we think there is a higher chance the fed will go -- we think there will be one or two hikes. in terms of the credit market, you want to be cautious on sectors tied to europe and china. china is rebalancing. we are more cautious on metals and mining. sector,y, the retail inventorya big overhang. we focused on the u.s. domestic economy. almost 70% the consumer. the consumer is as strong as they have been in 10 years. we see significant value in gaming, telecom, health care. those sectors are focused on what is happening here domestically. , ande management is key
that is how we are differentiating ourselves in the market. have been a lot of distress situations, bankruptcies. how willing is pimco willing to get into these bankruptcies and state or the long haul? >> we are ready to step in. almost no one was buying energy in january. we thought, through our analysis, that many of these companies would make it. has beenout, there over $9 billion of equity raised in the sector. when our fundamental research significantre is undervalued assets out there, we will step in and buy. having that warchest gives us an advantage. david: coming up in the next 20 minutes, pfizer gears up for a potential spinoff, making its first acquisition since the collapse of the allergan deal. the newplans fit into
david: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm david gura. the u.s. treasury department has never disclosed the holdings of saudi arabia, but the question has come to the forefront after plunging oil prices. angela wong covers government bonds for bloomberg news. she filed a freedom of information act request the
information. what did we get? breakdown of the opec holdings in u.s. treasuries. we know under that category, the -- $300s around 23 billion. of that, 120 belongs to saudi arabia. that number one of slightly during the oil crisis. that is in a trusting fact that we found up from treasury today. david: we are seeing who the big holders of treasuries are. china and japan the top. are the numbers a surprise to you? we always know that saudi arabia accounts for a big chunk of that subgroup. arabia'sto saudi actual foreign reserves, about 600 billion, the fact that they only have 120 billion is slightly surprising. ofalso need to know a lot central bank holdings are up with the new york fed, which
they do not break down. we also know the central bank of china and gulf nations have a habit of putting their holdings in two international holding centers. i think it is safe to say that these numbers do not actually reflect the true holdings of what they have. david: why has this been kept secret for so long, why has the government so secret about it? >> in the early 1970's, we had the first oil shock. the u.s. economy plunged into recession, was running up a deficit. at that time, what we wanted these opec treasury to do was to buy up treasuries, the way for the government to recycle these petrodollars. arabiaknow that saudi and all of these gulf nations are secretive when it comes to howmuch they really have, much of their stuff we owned. , it was like they
had a secret deal. we will buy your treasuries but we cannot -- you cannot tell the world how much you are buying. ago, therew weeks was a debate in congress over u.s. citizens should be allowed to sue foreign governments in saudi arabia. as that was unfolding, saudi officials said if this were to happen, the government would sell $750 billion in u.s. assets. square those numbers for me. >> they claim we have $750 billion of treasuries in the about 100we only see billion, as reported by treasury. , maybe the truth is somewhere in between. there are some holdings that are not tracked by the treasury, not recorded in the official system, but they have been holding it somewhere else.
david: thank you, andrea. switching to pharmaceuticals, pfizer has agreed to buy anacor pharmaceuticals. they will give pfizer control of their experimental drug to control eczema. cynthia koons is with us. there seems to be a big market for this. >> this is going after atopic dermatitis. pfizeris product gives is a foothold in the mild to moderate category. it is a category they will have to grow because it is relatively new, there will be a new treatment. eczema is a huge area. these dermatologic drugs can be a big market. some analysts are saying one billion to 2 billion. what it really represents is an opportunity to build up the innovative part of the business for pfizer. deal: after the allergan
tell apart, it sounded like the ceo was going to go after sure bets, drugs that are about to be approved. this one has not yet been approved. these drugs are in phase three, a lot of the work had been done already. they were not taking a bet on the early stage testing. this does fit what they wanted. probably what we will see a lot of over the coming month. they said they would make a decision by the end of the year whether to script the company. the consensus seems to be that they need to do a handful of deals to show that innovative business can and on its own. we will have some approvals coming up in the next few years. splits could still be in the works. >> i think it is more likely. you look at a deal like this, it says pfizer is looking to build both pieces of the business,
showing that they have two s trong standalone companies. talking about the tax inversion issue, they are saying their new pharmaceutical business will compete with a lot of inverted companies, but inversion is off the table. it seems to me, all the steps they are taking, the body language is in the direction of a split. david: are we entering a post inversion phase? this company tried, did not succeed. in light of what is happening with treasury, in washington, our company looking past that, m&a's? companies folded up under the radar before treasury was even paying attention to it. pfizer was the biggest and most iconic company to go for it. the government did everything they could to stop it.
were,mments around that he was unclear how the government would carry out their own regulations, so he would touch ryan again now. if pfizer splits into two smaller companies, maybe some inversions on the table in the next couple of years. maybe there is corporate tax reform before that. i don't think we will see many large-scale inversions. i think the industry knows that they cannot quite pull them off in this environment. david: thank you. learningad, meet ai that can learn just like you. google takes their car out for a test drive. ♪
smart reply to all of your e-mails? with me now.s this is a feature of the google inbox. it gives me choices of what my responses would be? reply will read incoming e-mails and present you with three. in replies. say soundsit may great. then you can hit send and move on to the next stage. david: what are we dealing with here, algorithms learning about tone? something very sophisticated happening behind the scenes. artificial intelligence is understanding the content and tone of the message. if you get a formal message, the responses will be equally so. if it is from a friend, it may be, you are the best! it is not just like a man lead. lib.d
david: why is google doing this? >> years ago, google was doing pretty 411. you could call and ask about information of a phone number. that,ason they were doing they were collecting data about how people talked. it helped their voice recognition software that they were developing by allowing large volumes of anonymous e-mails getting pushed through the system. are having computers a better sense of natural language and how people communicate. david: in the giant apparatus that is google, there is a quadrant called google brain. they are the ones pioneering this. >> they are the ones working on things like natural language recognition, text recognition. this is more of the skunk work of google, trying to unlock
higher powers of computing that we currently have today. david: you did this for a week. was it useful, didn't work out? >> the bulk of e-mails we deal with ken be answered with yes, no, or i will get back to you. if that is a selection and it , multiplyone second that over all the e-mails you get in a day, a week, and it becomes a convenience. it did run into some tricky situations when the e-mails were complicated, but i tried to stick with the replies presented. unfortunately, it resulted in when my father told me he was having an angiogram, good luck! david: and will you keep using it? much for real conversations i'm having with people, but for a lot of people where you basically want to say, sounds great -- if google can say that for me, i will gladly quit the option.
david: you have a strong sense of voice. did you feel any of it was lost in that? >> you do feel a little generic, it is true. some friends may look at it and think, is sand being held hostage? again, a lot of e-mails we get are in that not quite personal, maybe more mundane. want to moveu just them along, so i will continue to use it. david: that is sam grobart. you can read his article in the latest edition of " bloomberg businessweek." oil flying high today. stocks are at session highs. the dow crossing north of 200. ♪
pac is preparing to launch an anti-donald trump ad blitz. priorities usa will start airing it's a general election and starting wednesday. they will spend $6 million in ohio, florida, virginia, and nevada. a majority of americans support universal health care. the latest gallup poll indicates support0% of americans replacing the affordable care act with a federally funded system that provides insurance to all. the plan backed by bernie sanders. hillary clinton wants the eca to stay in. donald trump wants to repeal the legislation. to the u.n. says the eu's response to the refugee crisis lacks a vision and is urging an immediate change in policy. the envoy also criticized the agreement between the eu and turkey to send back refugees who make it to europe, saying it operates under legal and beauty. in000 people who arrived
greece after march 20 are being detained. 100,000 laps around earth for the international space station, which reached the orbital milestone today after 17 and a half years. nasa says those orbits are akin to traveling more than 2.6 billion miles. that is about 10 roundtrips to mars or almost one way to neptune. two americans, a russian, and an englishman currently called the space station home. global news 25 hours a day powered by our 240 journalists 150 news bureaus around the world. david: commodity markets are now closing in new york. silver gaining today. more.xpanded even silver also leapfrogged gold in mid-april of the best-performing precious metal. investors piling into gold.
holdings in exchange traded funds advanced for a 14th straight day, reaching the highest in more than two years. wti,iggest gainer is settling at 47 dollars $.73 while goldman sachs raised its price forecast. for more on oil, let's go to my colleague alix steel. alix: despite oil's rally, my next guest is bearish. he says volume and open interest suggest crude oil will decline to $35 a barrel. chiefiana is the technical strategist at merrill lynch. $47.48.a rally to what is the number one reason? >> a few reasons. first and foremost, on the volume and open interest divergence, believe it or not it was in a bottom in prices in january, the amount of open interest across the entire
futures chain has been decreasing, while prices are making higher highs. alix: open interest is long positions in the market. >> so there are less long positions. the amount of contract being made available for investors to get in there as decreased. less participants in the marketplace. another reason we turned bearish on crude oil is volume in this last rally has dropped off. the volume that supported the crude oil rally in the last two weeks of april heading into may was much less than the rolling 15-day average. it is a very bad sign when prices continue to advance to new highs without volume supporting the movement. alix: we have a golden cross in the 50-day moving average moving past the 200-day. that could be a bullish sign. >> it can be. we went back with the bloomberg terminal and looks at last 23 goldman crosses.
we found if you waited for the bearish cross, when the 50-day crosses below the 200-day, we were only profitable nine out of the 23 times. it is not a great argument to say that we should follow this. in the past, it has not been statistically relevant. alix: the other part of this is the actual price action. we have not broken above 50 with any meaningful push. you drill true, when down to the price action, we are looking at the technical side. leading into our bearish call, doji were actually four patterns. these represent indecision. when they are followed by a massive uptrend in crude oil, lack of volume into these new highs, long trend and diverging interest, it is a warning sign.
how much of bullish scenarios, how many bearish scenarios? it keeps piling up onto the bearish side. alix: there is a seasonality pattern in the fundamentals. that is part of why francisco blanch is more bearish as well heading into the third quarter, you have refinery maintenance. they don't use a lot of crude, there is a backup, which means inventories can build again. >> i love it when the fundamentals and technicals align but i'm a technical strategist, so my charts which include seasonal trends look at the 5, 10, and 30-year restaurants. the last five years, the price has been lower. it has also been lower the past 10. the last 30, mostly lower but flat. i am a seller in this rally. alix: your price target is about $35 a barrel. what happens when we hit that level?
$40, $38.25 through is another key level. as we get into the upper 30's, you have the potential for forming a bottom and railing again, which could be the right shoulder of a weekly charge head and shoulders pattern. this is a technical term as well. we like to see these certain patterns of lower troughs. this would be a higher trough in price. the first time in the week, we were in there for a long time. alix: that would be a bullish sign. do you have a price target on the upside than? we have extrapolated what we think will be the line for this pattern. roughly $45 a barrel depending on how long the right shoulder took to play out. on the technical side, we would take the distance from the low to the , which will have $18. we will rock that to the $49 .
low 60's. that would not be out of the possibility. maybe later this year into next year. alix: and that leads to francesco blanche's call looking for $60 in the new year. really interesting stuff. look for $35 in the short-term. if that bottoms out, you can see a spike into the 60's as well. thank you, paul ciana. thank you. make sure to stay with us. alix will be speaking with jeff curry tomorrow at 4:30 eastern time from the goldman sachs leveraged conference from california. tomorrow, we continue our conversation on oil. we look at how it fixed states like texas. the governor of texas will talk about that, the election, and much more. ♪
david: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm david gura. texas governor greg abbott has been calling on fellow republican tonight to defeat hillary clinton while also promising that he would fight against policies that give transgender people access to bathrooms. he talks about all of that in his new book. i am pleased to welcome texas governor greg abbott right now. let's begin with the bathroom laws. north carolina says it will sue the u.s. government. you have said texas will fight this. how come a similar lawsuits? >> we are fighting the same way that i have been fighting against the obama administration.
i think i hold the record for suing the obama administration. i try to 30 times before i became governor. i talk about these issues in my new book. the constitution and the federal government has been turned upside down. congress has taken several opportunities to weigh in on the transgender bathroom issue, whether it should be an issue of title ix, part of the civil rights act, and each time congress voted against it. the obama administration said congress, you had a chance to do it, we are going to do it. that strips the constitution of what it was intended to do. it is the lawmakers that have the authority under the constitution to make the law, not the president. what the president is doing is making law, not executing it. is your opposition about the legal overreach or about the issue itself, are you opposed to transgender people selecting the bathroom that they choose or the way the government
is going about it? >> both. the issue that is wrecking america is the way the obama administration is rewriting the cost to ship by rewriting the law. you refer to president obama as a king in your book. as you mentioned, you have sued the federal government many times. we had a decision related to obamacare. i know you were the head of suing the government in that. what do you make of that, essentially saying we're kicking this down to the lower courts? first, my reference to obama as a king comes from himself. he said that he would be at him as a king or emperor, that he had no authority to rewrite the immigration laws. then he rewrote the immigration laws. i'm using his own self descriptor when it comes to rewriting the laws, which is what he has been doing. today's decision is a good decision for the little sisters of the poor. expect therous to
little sisters of the poor to provide abortion related drugs for their employees. that is not what the law was intended to do. nor should americans be coerced into providing products that violate their religious beliefs. david: we talk about the price of oil, we have seen low prices. your state relies heavily on petrochemicals. what effect has that had on the state? >> you might send some buoyancy on my part today, given it is at $58. it has gone up $21 since the lower couple months ago. it shows everyone who thinks they can predict the price of oil always turns out to be wrong. second, every decade in my lifetime, oil has had a big downturn and that has gone back up. it is a pure commodity based on the forces of demand and supply. on bloomberg today there were by financiales
organizations talking about how the forces of demand and supply are now much more evil than they had been earlier in the year. that should lend support to the price of oil. that will be nothing good for the texas budget. returning to the bathroom laws, texas has gone after technology companies, getting them to relocate in texas. in north carolina, you have seen some blowback. wantnies saying they don't to do business in a state that has those kinds of laws. when you look at the texas economy overall, is that something you are worried about? >> no. this issue played out in houston, texas last november. againstn houston voted the type of ordinance that charlotte was trying to impose. in the aftermath of the vote, there have been 48 new businesses that move into houston. nonbelieving as a result. in the aftermath of the vote, we had the ncaa national chamber
chip game in houston. next year, we have the super bowl. houston and texas have continue to add new jobs. there has been absolutely no economic backlash because of it. david: you have a new book out tomorrow. there will be people looking at you saying that you are trying to get on the road making yourself into a larger national political figure. do you aspire to a larger office? coming out not be now before this upcoming presidential election. anis coming out because of important issue, the way the constitution has been rewritten by all three branches of the government. the title of the book describes left to be inen, a wheelchair, but i overcame it. all three branches of government are broken because they have strayed from their constitutional design. i talk about a pathway to fix
america's constitution. david: i hear echoes of what tenet -- ted cruz said on the campaign trail, whom you supported. you have now don't your support behind the presumptive nominee. how difficult is it to go from one to the other? they seem very different ideologically and politically. >> it is a challenge philosophically, but it goes deeper than that. i am close friends with ted cruz. when i was the attorney general, he was my solicitor general. i know him personally. it was not some presidential candidate up there, it was my friend campaigning. it is a grieving loss you have to get over. it takes a while to do that. but here is what will galvanize myself and my party. hillary clinton is nothing more than an extension of the obama agenda. we believe that is very challenging.
david: donald trump is reaching out to conservatives to make the case that he is somebody he can -- they can support. have you talked to him? >> the last time i talk to him was when i was running for governor. this is genius by donald trump. he is talking about coming out with a list, 10 potential nominees to the u.s. supreme court. this is something all presidential candidates should do. that way, people can see in advance who you would appoint to the supreme court, which is an important issue at this time. david: what is the most important issue for texans in this election? >> number one, securing the border. number two, protecting texas and the u.s. from isis. number three is jobs. number four is the united states supreme court. david: you gave us a few extra
there. greg abbott, thank you for being here. now let's go to ramy inocencio who has the latest on some 13 at filings. ramy: we do have the five from tiger global. their recent investment holdings and the changes we have seen in the past quarter. take a look at the increased stakes for tiger global. it is a hodgepodge of equities. , a car communications service in china, exxon, zillow, the real estate online website. you would think there would be a pop across the board when there is talk about increased stakes. with charter communication, down by 4%. this is interesting because to replace expected time warner cable on the s&p. that did not happen and that is actually a bigger wait for charter communications. things,lip side of
decreased stakes for tiger global. this is more in line with the general sector, the tech sector. priceline.com, tableau software. generally, you think they would fall, but they had been up higher. for the most part not moving because of tiger global's 13 f. i also want to point out another stock that is also the decreased stake, apple. notourse, hitting a low seen since 2014 a week ago. apple is up 4% today. says it is cutting 4.9 million shares. still owns 5.7 million shares, about .1%. now there are no more steaks in a couple of other companies, including restoration hardware, anheuser-busch, and auto home.
david: and this is "bloomberg markets." i'm david gura. it is time for the bloomberg business flash. the u.s. supreme court has rejected an appeal from exxon 230 $6nd leaves intact a million jury award to the state of new hampshire on claims a gasoline additive contaminating the state groundwater. exxon argued the court improperly let the state use statistical evidence of contamination to prove its case. today"lisher of "usa good that has increased its takeover offer of tribune
publishing. pre-pandemic card company green. will split the roles of chairman and ceo. an independent chairman will be named after the annual meeting. that is your business flash update. warren buffett is known for buying stakes in companies he knows well. tech stocks,avoids saying he does not understand the industry. berkshire hathaway recently got a stake in apple. emily chang is with us from san francisco. let's start by putting this into context. berkshire hathaway has recently thatn into manufacturing technology has been something the company has been averse to. emily: of course, they took a stake in ibm in 2011. they have increased that to about $20 billion, only increased about 1%.
not really the greatest investment for warren buffett. this investment in apple was made by one of his two investment managers. we don't know who. buffett says they did not consult with him about the investment. it has lost money already. apple could be at a low right now on his way back up. that is what many analysts have said. it is interesting because, as you said, warren buffett has to do we not taking investment in technology. he says he does not really understand it, but apple is not your average tech company. another story we are watching is a potentially backing dan gilbert, the founder of quicken loans, his bid for yahoo!. buffett says he is not taking a stake in yahoo! but would provide financing for gilbert yahoo!'s core media assets, which is a potentially more interesting development, given
the way the yahoo! story has played out. david: he has been getting into more media. seems like fertile ground and a new interest for warren buffett. warren buffett became the oracle of omaha for some brilliant media stock picks in the 1980's. if you look at it that way, he has been looking at media for 40 or 50 years. maybe not that far off the beaten path, if you think of yahoo! as a media company. of course, patient capital. he has provided financing for buyouts in the past. takeover of tim horton. both apple and yahoo! are up today, much more than the broader market. apple of about 4%, yahoo! about 3.5%. buffett seems to have this halo effect. one of the analysts we spoke to said that buffett always gets
his terms. we don't know how it will happen, but if it does happen with buffett involved, you can expect there will be favorable terms. david: what is the timetable for when these bids will be weighed? emily: they are whittling down the pool right now. we know tpg, verizon are still involved. it has been a fairly opaque process. we don't know yet how it will play out or how quickly, but we are monitoring every development closely. david: emily chang, thank you. we will have more on warren buffett 6:00. coming up in the next hour, betty liu on today's trading. stocks trading around session highs. ♪ .
-- welcome to bloomberg markets. from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good afternoon. here is what we are watching at this hour. markets beginning the week rallying with oil prices rising to a six month high, leading to a rebound in commodities and stocks. the dow is up triple digits and the nasdaq higher high nearly 1.5%, so why are investors becoming bullish on oil? barclays and more saying the market is going to turn faster than we thought, but what happened last four weeks to change everything? shares in apple gaining ground today with berkshire hathaway and warren buffett dying stocks in the company, giving them a rebound from slow iphone sales. we are about an hour away from the closing of trade. let's head to the marketsk