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tv   Trending Business  Bloomberg  May 16, 2016 9:00pm-10:01pm EDT

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>> good morning. this is trending business. first, here is what we are watching this morning. asia-pacific stocks are rising pickupecond day, and the in commodity prices is helping global equities as well. nearly $2yearly may, saw trillion wiped off. oil trading near six-month high ahead of u.s. government data that is expected to show
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stockpiles sell for a second week in rising demand in india is supporting crude. apple jumped the most in 10 weeks amid a $1 billion vet by warren buffett. berkshire hathaway has confidence in the product line, including the new iphone. let us know about today's top stories by following the on twitter. the big open, china and hong kong markets open in 30 minutes but malaysia has just come on. here is julliette. a lot of tailwinds. julliette: i wonder how many it could buy, but we are seeing a big pickup in tech stocks after the surge from warren buffett. $1.1 billion stake revealed towards apple.
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also on the back of that rise in crude oil and the rally we saw in wall street. half of 1% with exports today. electronic-ail and exports but they will do better than thae month. malaysia is pretty flat. we are seeing some weakness coming through, 2/10 of 1% but there has been a number of stocks that have risen substantially. it is actually up to 21% but has risen as much as 29% to a record. that is stocks on that company. up half of 1%, seeing some good games on the weaker yen. tomorrow, japan's steel work cutting its forecast, down by about 8%. in australia, the big rally we
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have seen in commodities helping out a number of companies. up by 7%. announced -- it has it is going to cut 200 jobs from its melbourne office. a good gain in new zealand, up by 8/10 of 1%. we will have the minutes at the bottom of the hour. 72.85 ahead of the main. yvonne: we will see the highlights they get out of that may meeting. going to china, bond defaults have triggered a blame game that is putting underwriters under scrutiny from regulators. let's go to our china correspondent. what are regulators saying right now? >> regulators have been on the ground. they are not happy with what
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they found. they say there was a string of problems and a lack of due diligence after a number of big firms unable to make those repayments. we know this year alone, 10 chinese companies on the onshore market have ended up in default. that is bigger than the entire tally for 2015. is quite unprecedented. it speaks to the pressure that some of these companies are under as work slows and they have to deal with overcapacity problems. just to give you some context of the size of the bond market, it has been growing, doubled in size in the last six years. $5.1 trillion in april in outstanding debt and sales were up 76% in the first quarter of this year, netting fees for those underwriters of $1.2 billion some of those underwriters are the biggest banks in china. ank of china -- one
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example of where underwriters went wrong, the bank of construction china underwrote a deal of ¥1 billion of china rail railway materials group. months later, holding for that company and looking to restructure the debt. analysts are saying risks are rising. 149 firms that have planned to issue debt this year have scrapped those deals worth about $25 billion. they are saying risks arising. never has there been a greater need for the underwriters to do a good job when it comes to issuing this bet. of course, questions for some managers as they look to invest. they look for the underwriters to be the gatekeeper and bring some clarity. yvonne: thank you, tom. oil is slightly weaker today,
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although still trading near six-month highs. we have a new star performer in demand for crude. india has passed china as the world's main growth market. joiningt more from dan, us live from singapore. tell us about india being quite a big consumer in the oil market right now. dan: absolutely. the oversupply in the oil market earlier this year drove prices down to a 12 year low. now that we seem to be out of the woods, where is the demand going to come from? india is the answer. in the first quarter, the older men growth grew by 400,000 barrels a day, larger than china. through 2040, it is expected to grow by another 6 million barrels a day. again exceeding china. india is the place that will be stocking up any extra supply that is out there. yvonne: is this a larger trend?
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what is really driving the growth? dan: it really is. if you look back about 15, 20 years when china's huge growth spurt started, they're about the same place india is right now, about 4 million barrels a day of oil demand. what china did was embark on an industrial revolution and india is doing the same thing. the prime minister is trying to increase manufacturing jobs. that drives oil demand in two ways -- one, you are making more goods than he to be trucked and shipped which requires oil. you are giving workers better wages. they have more money to spend on flights, cars, things that drive oil demand growth. yvonne: you mentioned cars, i guess you can see a lot of the growth out of the car lots in india. what is the auto market looking like? dan: it is booming.
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the total domestic vehicle sales growth rose by 5% last year to more than 20 million passenger cars, increased by 7% which is the quickest pace of car sales in five years. commercial vehicles increased by 30%. people buying everywhere. my colleagues actually went out to some car lots in new delhi and spoke to people and they said they have been underwriting their motorcycles. using the public transportation system. they want to commute in style. they are upgrading as they enter into the middle-class. yvonne: all right, some good news coming out of the oil markets there. a big consumer of oil coming from india. dan, thank you for joining us. we will take a look at the other stories. here's ros with a roundup and a big endorsement from warren buffett. inyes, warren buffett is
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with apple but they disagreed with carl icahn. berkshire hathaway revealed a stake of 9.8 million shares in apple worth about $1.1 billion. he typically avoids tech stocks but is making more ventures as of late. 30% since the middle of last year, but lifted and closed 3.7%. last month, icahn said he sold his shares in apple over concerns of their relationship with china. in thehey have confidence company and including the new iphone. a secret for 41 years, u.s. reveals how much debt is owed by saudi arabia -- $116 billion. two years ago, it was $82.8 billion. by request was filed
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bloomberg news. saudi arabia ranks only among the top 12 foreign nations overall. china has $1.2 trillion and japan with $1.1 trillion. bankts of japan's largest is being squeezed by the doj's negative rate policy. four years, it is inspected to fall 11% for the financial year. that is lower than the average of the analysts forecast. we have seen the number come in at 90. the bank sees negative rates putting pressure on low oil nnd that costs due to -- i february, the doj started charging lenders for some of their excess reserves in a bid to help revive the economy. yvonne: thank you. we are looking at the world's newest airline alliance and its
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aim at the budget traveler on bloomberg.com. we have some big guests coming up this morning. next hour, australia's trade minister joins us live from sydney. our exclusive interview with the black hawk ceo in about half an hour. up next, we look at the volatility in the yen rate and ask jpmorgan asset management how to play the markets ahead of the meetings next month. you are watching trending business, good morning. ♪
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yvonne: some news coming from tokyo. the prime minister says he expects to suspend sales tax next year unless there is serious reason not to. he has been speaking and telling
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lawmakers he will make a final decision on the hike at the appropriate time. you look ahead to the g7 meeting in 10 days. the promise or says as host, he will take the lead on discussions on tax evasion. we are seeing some wild swings in the dollar-yen rate ahead of the brief from japan this week. the fed and doj will meet next month. juliette, why such volatility? the market is starting to price in next month. policymakers in the u.s. and japan. it is a 0% chance of a that increase in june, but then we heard from the new york president which has it is reasonable to expect to raise the benchmark rate twice this year so that is actually the one-month volatility. it will hedge against swings in this surge. ratene-month volatility
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and it is at its highest level since february 11. you can find it on our website. we saw one-month volatility climbed by 260 points on monday. it is the middle of february but it is at 12.13%. if we have a look at where the yen is actually tracking today, we are seeing it a little bit stronger at the moment. 108.97. it has been flat for the day. we have the first quarter gdp numbers coming out of japan tomorrow. we are expecting a modest gain in economic growth but there could be a second consecutive dip into negative territory which would start conversations over recession and non-stimulus conversations. yvonne: thank you so much. let's check back on the markets. richard, ceo of emerging markets at j.p. morgan asset management.
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great to have you in the studio. we see so much crude volatility ahead of the g7. what are you in terms of the yen? we are seeing the strength in recent weeks, but is it going to continue as we continue to see a lot of risk aversion? i think everybody was very surprised when the yen strengthened last month on the back of the prime minister's discussion. from my point of view, really much more important to think about corporate earnings in japan and the impact the currency has on that. i think it will be wrong to assume the yen will weaken. i think the markets are telling yenthe era of the weak is over. innne: we have already seen the likes of many carmakers that are forecasting to really take a hit in terms of the guidance. we continue to see buybacks which is usually a good boost or stocks but it does not show good performance either when you have
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poor guidance. richard: japan is an interesting market because everybody depends -- tends to focus on the macro picture. there is a lot going on domestically in japan, both in terms of corporate governance which has improved. there are a lot of domestic companies which are actually doing pretty well. more earningsybe growth and positive developments. i would not focus on the big exporting names. price: we see an oil recently giving a boost to emerging markets. this oil supply deficit. do you see a more tighter supply and demand dynamic now? can we continue to see this rally go? and all the other commodities have been incredible volatile over the last 12 months.
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people are more optimistic. i suspect we have seen the lows in the oil price earlier this year. does that mean it will go up dramatically from your? very hard to say. yvonne: mid 50's at least? richard: it will stay in this range that we are in. it will be volatile because you can see all the speculation in commodity markets and you see what is happening in china recently. i think oil is passed its point of maximum. yvonne: probably good for this part of the world. you see china -- we have been talking about the weaker picture out of the data over the weekend. are the hopes of this country turning a corner? has that been ruined or do you continue to see the new sectors really seeing some hope? richard: i very much put myself in the optimist count in regards for china. i think this whole idea, new
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china and a rebalancing away from the investors is true and real. i think it is unrealistic to expect the chinese economy to boom, but stabilization is fine from the markets standpoint. this authoritative source came out and said an "l-shaped" recovery. yvonne: it seems like there are mixed messages. the ppoc saying they will support growth matter what. do you think they really are going to put the brakes when it comes to expansion? richard: supporting growth does not mean a return to a boon. if the economy stabilizes, i think that is good enough for global investors. the credit issue is a worry and we don't really want to go back to a big credit boon. a stable chinese economy that is steadily rebalancing towards consumption in new china is pretty benign for the rest of
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the emerging markets and asia. yvonne: a more of a reality check. thank you so much for joining us, richard. these are stories making headlines around the world. the next president of the philippines has offered a post to members of the communist party. his decision is part of a new administration's efforts to end a five decade insurgency that killed about 40,000 people. >> these negotiations stalled under the outgoing president. they also announced plans to release all political prisoners as part of an effort to build goodwill. the u.s. and russia have held talks indiana ahead of new attempts to -- in vienna ahead of new attempts to have peace talks over syria. there is no comment over the meeting as the group tries to share up a cease-fire. kerry is in another marathon diplomatic mission.
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he tries to talk to nato before meeting with president obama. the international space station has completed 100,000 orbits of the earth. this is after more than 17 years in space. astronauts have been living continuously aboard since 2000. 222 people have stayed in the vast majority have been men. the current crew celebrated the moment by taking the picture. 400,000 journalists, this is bloomberg news. up, a visit from one of china's most senior officials. find out what is next on the agenda. stay with us. ♪
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yvonne: you are watching
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trending business, welcome back. hong kong says to be on high alert after one of china's most senior party officials pays a visit. stephen engle joins us more on this. why is this visit so sensitive? stephen: he is number three in china. three on the committee. he is ahead of the account tears. he is the chairman of the national people's congress. he is a big deal. it was the national people of congress in august of 2014 that passed down those guidelines that pretty much changed the way a lot of hong kong people thought they were going to be able to elect their chief executive in 2017. basically saying we will have this select panel to choose the candidates. of course, that subsequently led to the occupy hong kong protest of 79 days and quite a tumultuous time in hong kong and
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the resulting tensions between hong kong and china, at least politically. this is a very sensitive issue right now with zhang here. 6000 police officers have been deployed. compare that to four years ago, when the outgoing president came. handd about 3000 police on to keep security in place. this time, they don't want any kind of trigger points or protests because going forward, there are some key dates. september will be the key camp wantsere the to get a super majority. march of next year, the next chief executive should be picked not by universal. july of next year is the 20th anniversary. i cannot believe it is 20 years already -- where president xi jinping might pay a visit. yvonne: the growing tension between the two.
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ties have sunk to the lowest point since the handover. what are we expecting him to announce economically? stephen: he is probably not going to announce anything in particular except there was a lot of speculation yesterday in the stock market which is why we're waiting the opening today in hong kong of stocks. there was a sharp spike up and down yesterday within a two-minute span. it could speculation be announced. again, no confirmation on that. yvonne: we will watch out for that. stephen engle, thank you so much. next, getting ready to release the highlights of that may meeting. they decide to announce that surprise cut and that is coming up next. stay with us. a little bit better picture on
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the asian markets with the oil price rally, heading close to $50 a barrel. stay with us on trending business. ♪
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yvonne: the top stories trending this hour -- asian stocks arising for a second day after a pickup in commodity prices. oil trading your six-month highs in new york and the yen is above 1009 per dollar. the hang seng recovered from a mystery plunge yesterday. the japanese prime minister says he still expect to raise sales tax next year unless there are serious reasons not to. he has been speaking and telling lawmakers he will make a final
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decision on the hike at the appropriate time. he says there is no doubt that japan is making progress for beating deflation. apple got a lift from news that warren buffett made a $1 billion bet on the company. berkshire hathaway holds almost 10 million apple shares. the stock closed more than 3.5% higher, apple lost nearly 30% of its market value since the last summer. here is juliette monitoring the markets opening. are we seeing them join in the buying theme? juliette: certainly on the hang seng which was a pretty erroneous day when we saw the unexpected plunge. the hang seng is up for tens of 1%, pretty flat on the shanghai market. it did not react to the move we saw. singapore is looking pretty good.
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we saw electronic and nonoil exports for april fall, but higher by 6/10 of 1%. a little bit of a pickup on the philippines. korea's index is still flat although it has turned back into n fallack after the yua to a two month low against the dollar. some good news on the nikkei 225. we have a weaker yen ahead of the first quarter gdp numbers out of japan tomorrow. good news coming out of those as up 4.7% which is what we are seeing across the region. it is the story of oil and gas players leading the gains. rebounding crude holding a month -- holding along the six-month tocks risingch s after warren buffett said he had a stake in apple. in theional index up
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early session. yvonne: thank you. breaking news from australia -- the minister of the rba's main meeting where i described a surprise break. paul allen is in sydney for us. what does the news show us? paul: the minister suggested it was a longball call when they cut into the fresh record low. the minister said they discussed cutting in may or raising on further data. the bank decided broad-based inflation weakness was enough . there is more lifted than previously thought and the low-wage inflation could lead to lower wage growth. sustainable growth in the economy would be improved by easing monetary policy at this meeting. that is a summary of the minutes.
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if we look at the australian dollar, it has spiked very strongly on the release of these. the rba does not think weak cpi usis due to the week oil price. there was some prices in the first quarter cpi. that obviously is not enough to stay their hand at the meeting. as for what happens next, traditionally the reserve bank of australia is not really one and done. economists do not think that will be a cut in june or july, but by the time august rolls around, 19 of the 27 surveyed think we are going to be 1.5%. yvonne: besides inflation, the rba watches unemployment pretty closely. what are we expecting from the next set of numbers on thursday? paul: unemployment always a bit of a surprise package but it is expected to rise slightly to 5.8%. ba's would reinforce the r
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stance. this is an unpredictable number and we saw it is cutting 200 jobs. the reason they gave was a sluggish economy and poor economic conditions. them that runs the jobs ads which gives a sneak preview of the unemployment figures. but taileddy in 2015 off a little recently. yvonne: reading some of the minutes from the rba. employment is somewhat mixed so we will look for those numbers later. onle enjoyed a welcome lift news that warren buffett made a $1 billion bet on the company. su keenan has the details. su: apple shares stole the spotlight in the wall street session on monday. the stock jumped the most in months, up almost 4% after it was announced warren buffett company berkshire hathaway had
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taken a stake in the iphone maker to the tune of $1.1 billion. the gamble, wall street believes, hints at the company's confidence in apple's ability to create new product. there has been concern about the latest iphone. it is kind of a no-brainer, one manager said. he does not think it is a big stretch for berkshire which is a lot of cash. he also believes apple is relatively cheap and the kind of investment that berkshire likes to make. down 30% from the middle of last year even though berkshire does not typically invest in technology companies. although, we have seen them invest in intel. even after apple warned that the sales decline that they experienced would continue, it is important to note that only 50 of the analysts recommend selling the stock. berkshire already had about 9.8 million shares as of march 31.
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while it adds to its position, it is more into note that several other billionaire investors have walked away. carl icahn exited his entire position last month, citing concerns about apple's relationship with china. david tepper announced on friday that he sold his apple stake in the first quarter. finally, berkshire's largest stock holdings kraft and wells fargo are worth more than $20 billion. level,not quite at that but it was one that wall street took note of. su keenan, bloomberg news. yvonne: checking in on some of the other stories -- bsi has said to be investigating some employees over the dealings related to the troubled malaysian fund. the manager of the former bsi who was charged in singapore earlier this month is the one being checked.
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they have not accused him of any wrongdoing. several bsi employees have left the office in recent months over the investigation. reports that chinese authorities have targeted apple and other u.s. tech companies in a series of securities inspections. the new york times says the check focus is on area involving encryption and data storage. linked to inspections not targeting any particular country, product.or company twitter hoping to get users more freedom to express themselves. that will soon start counting photos and links in its 140- character limit. links take up 23 characters even after they automatically shorten them. it is part of a larger plan by jack dorsey to give the site more flexible. the changes will be rolled out in the next couple of weeks. we are live at the symposium.
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angie lau is talking to some big names. what is ahead? angie: it does not get bigger than one of the best students of the market. comingn ceo larry fink up next on trending business. my exclusive with him. we are five of the four seasons for black rock's annual symposium. stay with us. ♪
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>> it is 11:49 a.m. in sydney. these are the headlines making stories. is entitledvernment of other terrorist groups. the head of the organization met delegates of more than 20 countries. libya has been in chaos since the 2011 death of gaddafi.
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junta inof the u.s.and has criticized the -- now holding a grudge against the envoy and it is up to him. the ambassador expressed concern over the potential of several ties. has promised elections next year. a south korean author has onwon the prize for fiction. the prize.arhare toexplores a woman's trying escape. it is praised as provocative and suggestive. by journalists all around the world, this is bloomberg news. yvonne: blackrock's annual
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symposium is happening right now. angie lau is live at the event with an exclusive interview. yeah, it is larry fink, ceo and chairman of blackrock. he joins us exclusively live right on bloomberg television. larry, thank you for joining us. you seem very critical of not only companies but also governments for a lack of long-term range thinking and planning. is this the worst time for governance since the 1930's? larry: i was not around in the 1930's. know if i can make that type of judgment, but what i can say is the problem we see in the world are very little governments worldwide that have
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been so dependent on central banks. central banks have played a very important role. they singularly have received allies the world. -- re-stabilized the world. i think they have overstayed their welcome but it is not their fault because they are not getting any help from governments. it is essential for governments now to start beginning serious policy, fiscal reform. fiscal policy investing in infrastructure. if we saw greater government investment, it is much easier for corporations to start investing for their future. the leaders of companies worldwide, these men and women are generally very smart. they have worked up the corporate ladder. they want to preserve their company and build a company of the future. they want to have a long amount of time of governing their company and building the company for a better future. the lack of investment in
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corporations is not, we should not take that in isolation. the fact that we don't have government investing and government dependency on central banks is part of the same ecosystem. angie: you say there is $1 trillion gap. what is it costing us in the future? larry: on top of the infrastructure gap, the last time i looked we're sitting at close to zero, negative interest rate. it seemed like an opportune time to invest for the future that we build better infrastructure. depending on each country, they have specific needs. the bigger problem is the fact we have not invested in this $1 trillion gap. it also tells you one of the reasons why we have fears of brexit, and the socialist party gaining control. why we have extremist candidates in the united states. it is the same phenomenon.
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the families of so many people in spain and the u.k., other parts of the world are fearful for their future, their children's future. we have seen technology change so many jobs. technology reduced the amount of human input and so many manufacturing parts. we have seen technology change my business, your business. technology is a good and bad thing. it helps humanity but at the same time there is a big humanity cost. many people are left behind. that investment i talk about in infrastructure is a fantastic way of creating those jobs for those families that are crying out for help, the families who are fearful of their children's future. we must make sure their children are educated so they can be prosperous in the technology world. angie: china has done that. it's invested in its economy since 2008. to now great criticism as it
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stares at its debt piles. did they make the right or wrong call? larry: you are talking about the most recent call. i would give the chinese leadership some of the best marks in trying to transform their society. we are in the fourth year of the reorient china a way for manufacturing, away from export dependency economy to a much more resilient domestic economy. a much greater service economy. that is a very hard thing to do. it takes many countries 50 years to do that and countries generally have recessions in the transition. recentlyd china most in for my policy behavior, overstepped, the market is saying that. the market is saying that china's dependency on debt and the leverage of the balance
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sheets in the continuation of investing in some of the unproductive state owned companies is not a good long-term solution. i would say it is not a good long-term solution. hopefully, this is only a short-term remedy and they get back to the basics of trying to build a better domestic economy. angie: are you worry about the debt pile? larry: we have to be. you canmy can grow 6%, grow out of your problems but you cannot grow at 6% and having your balance sheets go faster. in the future, i would much prefer seeing the economy growing 6% with some form of deleveraging. if we get reorient the economy towards a stronger economy in tourism. as you know, so many chinese leave china. 3m two suitcases, they go to hong kong, tokyo, new york and
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they come back with five full suitcases. was a better service economy in china, can you imagine a china in which imported goods are equivalent in price in china as it is in hong kong? good for hong kong, but that is one of the structural problems in china today. this is what they need to do. china has been so reliant on the vat tax and import tax. they have to change how they get the revenues and need a china in which imported goods are equivalent in price as they are in tokyo or new york. angie: you were just in japan yesterday. you have been very critical of negative rates. have politicians, has abe, advocated reforms to monetary policy? larry: what we have seen in the last three months under the governor of the bank of china,
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his last action in instituting negative rates has achieved negative results. we see 10% increase in the value of the yen. and, you have seen more savings. this comes to the point i try to make to all central bankers. we all save for outcomes. we save for our retirement. we saved to have a down payment on a house. we save for outcomes. we don't save just for the sake of saving. we would much rather consume goods. but people have a long planned, life plan and you say to those outcomes. we are all expecting to earn a return on that savings. now with negative rates or low interest rates for actually not earning a thing.
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what it means is if we want to get to the proper outcome of having enough savings for retirement, it means we have to save more money. in japan, where so much of the savings are in bonds, i find the whole concept of negative interest rates for japan to be terrible. i also believe they are terrible for europe, but i feel that in criticizing san or any other governor because i believe the central banks are the only game in town. their air in a position because of government. the european leaders, the u.s. leaders have not done enough in building infrastructure for the future. angie: we have to go to a break. this is larry fink, blackrock chairman and ceo live in hong kong. i will be asking about brexit, politics and the wind of change, coming up next. ♪
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angie: we are back live at the blackrock annual symposium where we are live with euro larry fink -- ceo larry fink. you were talking about politicians advocating the role to growth to central banks, but i want to ask you about brexit because last month you said if the referendum vote were to happen then that it was likely going to vote to leave. do you still hold that same view? larry: i think when president obama visiting the u.k. changed the mood. he has a 78% approval rating in the u.k. and i think he convinced many voters that it would be the wrong thing to do for the u.k.
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i think all the issues around patternsa investment have been fully digested. i think those issues are behind me. i actually see more momentum towards a no vote. angir: why do you suppose there is this political risee in anger? when you take a look at the haves and have-nots, many of those feel they have not participated in the type of growth we have seen in markets and anger is only growing. larry: i think you are right. twoany families are working jobs now. so many families have left jobs that had more security to jobs with less security. so many families have left jobs in manufacturing to the service side in smaller wages. many families have a secure job
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but they have not witnessed any increases in the compensation or the competition has not kept up with inflation. but that altogether and you get your -- you're seeing such disparity in wealth. the one thing that is very certain with quantitative easing is help people have capital. equity markets rallied. the average participant in society does not have enough savings to be in the equity markets. only large pulls of real estate. you see this widening of the gap, those who have capital have benefited. those who have been able to refinance have benefited, but the typical middle-class have not benefited. this is the anger. the middle class throughout the world is crunched. angie: that is what donald trump is tapping into -- national versus globalization. what does a president mean to a
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global economy and financial markets? larry: i think whoever's president, whoever is going to be the leaders of the u.k. and spain, whoever are the leaders in countries that are not having an election -- i think it is a wake-up call that we have this anger. that we have families with lost hope. they are worried about their children and their futures. this is why i think it is essential we need this fiscal policy response. why the fiscal policy response needs to be directed towards infrastructure, that we can create better, high-quality jobs, higher paying jobs and building necessary infrastructure for a better future, for their children and their grandchildren. i think it is very essential. whoever is president, whether it is donald trump or not, whether it is prime minister cameron or
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boris johnson, it means you have to respond to these issues. angie: larry fink, thank you so much for that. business,ending coming up. ♪
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announcer: from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. charlie: new developments this week in a fight against isis. in a report this sunday on nbc news, you will learn the identities of 15 americans who have joined up with the jihadi's . it is the latest investigation by richard engel. he is the chief correspondent for nbc news and a friend of this program. take me to the beginning. richard: from the beginning, two months ago, in southern turkey. we met an isis defector, someone

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