tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg May 18, 2016 2:00pm-3:01pm EDT
release of the fomc minutes from its meeting on april 27. again, a meeting after which the fed decided not to raise rates. let's go to michael mckee and washington, d.c. he has had a look at the minutes. the keyword here is june. rateitely tilting toward a move in june. officials are worried that the market is not ready for that. closely. this most part testament judge that, if incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labor market conditions continuing to strengthen and inflation making progress toward the committee's 2% objective, then it likely would be appropriate for the committee to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in june. that sounds a lot like the language they used in october, all the promising a great
increase in december. fed officials are concerned that investors "may not have properly assess the likelihood of an increase in the target range at the june meeting. in several times, the minutes note that they needed to communicate that possibility. range of have a possibilities. there was general agreement that, while conditions had improved by late april from the the realirst quarter, strength of the economy and inflation were still at that time difficult to measure. so on april 27, the minutes say participants generally saw the wisdom of leaving rates unchanged at that meeting and then assessing relevance carefully, a stance they characterized as "leaving open the possibility of an increase in the federal funds rate at the june fed meeting. the minutes go on to note "a few participants explicitly" wanted
to raise the rates at the april meeting. esther george who dissented from the committee decision, to participants in the minutes argued traditional policy benchmarks, like the taelor role, suggesting that may be the fed is falling behind the curve. it hasn't changed the fed view. if the data provides reassurance to a data-dependent view, then the fed is on the table for june. david: i was looking at the minutes from the previous meeting, the march meeting. view.a robust if you are took in trust -- contrast the view, is there still conversation about that in these minutes? mike: there was still concernmike: about business spending and there was still some concern about overseas developers. but those concerns have diminished significantly because, in part, federal financial conditions have
improved. --ng with the rising rages raising wages and some decline in energy prices. the minutes say they explicitly took out that reference in march the global developments in order to send a message to the public, a message that apparently a lot of investors didn't get. there was also one reference to brags it -- to brexit. there is no mention of it being any kind of disqualification or a factor that could derail a move. david: stay with us. we will go back to michael hansen. julie hyman has the latest on the markets desk. as expected, given this implication that the fed is closer to raising rates at this point, in other words, we are seeing stocks come off their highs to some degree. that is sort of typical if you're going to take away some degree of stimulus, although there is a lot of debate over what effect it will have paired
we have seen stocks come down a little bit. they are not negative at this point. if you look at the intraday of the s&p 500, you get a clear picture of what has been happening in the wake of the minutes. if you take a look at the in's -- the minutes on an intraday basis, you see a leg downward. just go straight to the u.s. dollar. you are expected to be taking a leg up in the wake of these minutes. indeed, that is what is happening. up by about half of 1%. the 10 year yield, which should already be rising ahead of the minutes is now rising even more. so going up to 1.84 percent. and the two yield, which is also sensitive with was going on with the failed -- the fed, we are seeing a dramatic upward movement. finally, a quick check on gold prices, which had been lower because of the dollar being
higher earlier in the session. thisu look at gold at point, you would expect to see a movement straight down. that is exactly what we are seeing. now seeming to indicate a higher chance for a june hike. thank you. my canton, let me ask you to react to this seeming optimism about june. michael: definitely stronger than a signal you would have gone from the statement itself back at the april meeting, when there was modest changes to the language. and looking through some of the headlines, some of the discussion, there is a fair bit of debate in the committee. but the biases toward a june hike provided the forecasts are satisfied. mike mckee, let me ask you about the development in the financial markets.
it is an opportunity to take stock of what has happened abroad, especially when it comes to other central banks. what is the commentary of how the fed is processing what the ecb has been doing? mike: the's no real mention of what is going on at other banks. they were looking at financial market conditions and noted they had ease. remember, we had all that turmoil in january and february. a number of participants noted that it had not affected the economy..s. concerns about growth in the first quarter were largely tied to may be seasonal adjustment factors. and in general, the feeling was we were going to see growth pick up in the second quarter. so far, that is what is happening. the atlanta fed gdp number reach the 2.5% growth rate as of this month. david: mike mckee, wanted to ask about the dissent. what color do a have about what is motivating that and perhaps if her opinion is becoming
shared by the rest of the committee? mike: there is a concern that the fed might be falling behind. the inflation rate might move faster, more quickly. we saw that in an interview on monday. minutes suggested that those who are arguing for an immediate move worried the fed would have to move more quickly and at a more severe pays to try to raise interest rates, if indeed they were falling behind the curve. came up in these minutes. i wonder the degree to which you think the global situation is weighing on the federal reserve's mind going forward. michael: generally, if you look at the next couple of moscow the data is better and the global outlook has been more of a concern. the committee also mentioned concerns about china. it is a lingering concern for the committee. certainly brexit after the june meeting is something they will be attentive to. and you had fetish of -- fed
officials in the last couple of weeks highlight that. there is uncertainty that it will be a close call in june. david: michael hansen, we're talking about that speech janet yellen is expected to give on may 27. i wonder what works yes to do here coming -- to do here, if in fact there is a june hike on the table. michael: i don't think the speech is one that will focus on policy. i think there will be the june 6 speech, which is after the june 3 jobs report. i think that will be really key to how the fed assesses that jobs report, the last big indicator ahead of the meeting. i think it will come down to diminishing slack and therefore support for inflation to continue to pick up. back in march, yellen was skeptical that we were picking up inflation at this point. mike mckee, our bloomberg
customers know that, if they have bloomberg, they can go to t live go and our bloomberg intelligence team is crunching the numbers. one thing that our chief economist thursday is the likely of a june hike, we shouldn't overplay that. it is a big if. we will need confirmation time that. as you look at the economic data we have gotten, what are the red flags, the state -- the things that policymakers will be looking for? mike: they will be looking to see in particular what inflation does. the minutes show there was a general feeling in april that they had gone almost as far as they were going to be able to go. but there were still concerns about whether it inflation was too low and whether it was up.on going to pick the usual language of it will over the medium-term, but some concern that inflation expectations were still pointing to a lower place in rate than they might want to see. so they will be watching the pce inflation numbers that come out the gdp report and the aiken spending report to see if it
accommodates the numbers we got from cpi this week. they will want to see if investment is this picks up. -- investment business picks up. there is a lot of data to come between now and then. what they want the markets to take away from this is that there is not a negligible possibility that they could raise rates. it is an open question. it will be on the table. it is not a guarantee that they will do it, but you cannot write it off as markets have to this point. david: one of the things to look at his financial conditions, and look at how the market has been reacting. how heavily are they way that going into this next meeting in june? michael: it matters. it is not something that is an end in and of itself. but it is an indicator of factors, including the labor market and inflation. do look aed, things fair bit better than early
february. -- we coulde good get some volatility in the june meeting. in the end, i don't think they are in a big rush necessarily. like mike mckee said, it is possible. it is on the table, but i wouldn't read the minute suggesting that it is a done deal. david: we can say here a hawkish set of minutes from the fed. now let's check on the bloomberg first word news. ed crumpton has more -- mark crumpton has more. taken newld trump has positions and 49 new corporation says july when he began his campaign for the republican presidential nomination. is listing in positions in 564 entities. that is up from 515 in an earlier filing. the top u.s. intelligence
officials says washington has seen and occasions of foreign hackers spying on presidential candidates. the fbi and homeland security officials are working with the campaigns to help them titans security. the activity follows a pattern noticed during the past two presidential elections. vice president biden will announce rules on overtime that may give 4 million americans a raise. it may also give them a reason to vote for democrats in november. the rules say that workers must be paid at least $47,000 before they can be considered managers in eligible for overtime. that's twice as much as the current threshold. a powerful new earthquake has struck ecuador, the second of the day. the latest was a 6.8 magnitude 15 miles know her -- miles north 15her as us are on to -- surante.rth of rosa
we spend a lot of time talking about the chinese economy, focusing on the pboc. numbers get lost in the are china's citizens grappling daily with the new economic reality in that country. on five of focus is his neighbors in shanghai, in a city of more than 15 million people. rob: china has gone to a point where everyone has made my. that was -- made money. that was the goal for 20 or 30 years. that was the goal for the government as well. so everybody is on the same page. now everybody's dreams are going in different directions. they are looking for religion. they're looking for equality.
they're looking for justice. and the party is having a difficult time with this. that is part of the reason why jing paying -- xi jinping is a jury and that puts the party first and the people second. david: you focus on the street that you live on. there is an unofficial mayor of that street. homeless ony who is a street where he lived for a long time. you follow him. you profile him. you got of town. that's when the government comes in to evict him. what does that say about how the government sees the growth of shanghai, to build more, to expand? time, think for a long shanghai was hell-bent on growing at any cost. and that meant uprooting anyone who was in the neighborhood that shanghai wanted to develop and
to build bigger high-rises on. this was during the area where reigned.n rained -- it is still a big problem. i think it is starting to change. xi jinping has an anticorruption plan. there was a big stimulus package after the financial crisis in 2008. there was a lot of money in the system and a lot of local officials were basically try to steal that money. local governments would fund themselves by taking land from people. a lot of times, they didn't have any other option to fund their own local government because they gave me a lot of taxes to the central government. so right now, china is starting to change this because it realizes that this is a very big problem. it has created tens of millions of people that have had their homes illegally taken from them. it still happens, but i think we are starting to see some changes
on that front. david: does the government have a handle on growthdavid:? do you get the sense that there is a plan in place? and if there is any failure, it is a lack of communicating what that is? michael: i am not confident that there is a plan in place. now, especially with the stock market, we have seen a lot of problems. i think the plan that the central government has right now is to pay attention to the poorest part of china. because those folks, anywhere to 5000 known people million people, that haven't really made it despite 30 years of incurable growth. -- 200 million people to 500 million people, they haven't really made it despite 30 years of growth -- of incredible growth. you are the campaigns seeing for she doing paying
focuses on that group of people, the corruption campaign, local officials trying to make sure they are doing things right. and urbanization campaign for much right to take people from farms and getting them in cities. i'm not sure how well this is going to work because china needs to transform the way it's economy runs. it has been very difficult because they are going to have to reform a lot of their own irterprises -- the state-owned enterprises. still ahead on bloomberg markets, more now sis of the april fed minutes. ♪
let me ask you about the main takeaway. a hike would be appropriate in june if -- let's talk about the if. what policymakers will be looking for ahead of the june meeting. mike: they laid it out pretty explicitly. their goals as always, they want to see labor market conditions continuing to strengthen as they put it, and inflation making 's 2%ess to the committee target. if they get those two things, there is a possibility they could raise rates at the june meeting. certainly, it will be a live possibility. not a promise, but at least a possibility. their main concern was, coming out of march and basically through this entire year, markets have discounted the possibility of the fed following through on the forecast they came through in at least two to forge or straight increases this year. david: peter coy, we have talked a lot about the lack of strength
in the u.s. dollar. we see it taking up almost two thirds of a percent. strength of the dollar something the policymakers have been looking at here. peter: after the fed increased in december, had the period of turmoil in the national markets. scared. the fed when the dollar strengthens, it is bad for u.s. production because people will buy cheaper imports from abroad and we cannot sell as much abroad. that is one of the reasons the international turmoil may be put the that on hold a little bit. what we're here enough from the fed is they are little less -- a little less worried about that. starting to think maybe we are back on a normalization path and we can go ahead and go through the second quarter point increase. david: you take close attention
to the diversity of use on the committee. we learn that the views on the economy, on the economic situation were varied. peter: the fomc is not monolithic. you have everybody from hawks to doves. what i wrote in my cover story is that janet yellen has a very important institutional role interacted cohere the fomc. that means she cannot be, kind of, playing around with far out ideas, even if there is some merit to them. she's got to really be a shepherd for the flock. so in you hear her talking, it is not just janet yellen who is talking. it is kind of the voice of monetary policy in the united states. david: we learn from these , the president of the san francisco fed, the boston fed, men who have spoken about this recently, they thought they markets were underestimating the possibility of a june hike.
do we see that reflected in these minutes greatly? mike: that is something that comes up through the minutes in several different places. diversity of views, where the economy was on april 27. but there was almost unanimity that the markets were not properly pricing the risks of a fed move going forward. david: you mentioned you see a bit of similarity in october. language. the it is on the table. it is a possibility for the june meeting. that is what they said in october. moore bloomberg markets coming up. ♪
headquarters in new york, this is "bloomberg markets." i'm david gura. mark crumpton has more from the newsroom. john kerry is in cairo for talks with egyptian officials, explore the companies -- countries ideas for a new israeli-palestinian peace initiative. secretary kerry flew in a day forr support was offered the french process and said he was willing to serve as a mediator. closing arguments are expected of the 20 civil trial 12 colorado shooting that left 12 dead and 70 injured. 28 victims and their families are suing cinemark holdings. they claim more security measures should have been in place to prevent the deadly rampage. james holmes is serving a life sentence for that attack. chris christie positive approval rating has hit a record low. voters disapprove of the governor's job performance according to a recent survey.
trump should not select christie as a running mate. arguments are set for thursday in the case of a baltimore police officer charged in the arrest of freddie gray. he was one of six officers to stand trial in the 2015 incident which resulted in the 25-year-old death after he was fatally injured while in police custody. gray died a week after his neck was broken in the back of a police van. during today's closing arguments, he said his client was not involved in the arrest and was not responsible for making sure that gray was belted in while riding in the van. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i'm mark crumpton. back to you. david: commodity markets are closing in new york. let's take a look at today's biggest movers, starting with oil. paring earlier gains after a
government report showed a bigger than anticipated decline in fuel supplies. gold alsong at dipping on those comments from fomc rule makers. coffee needing a bit of a pick me up, falling 2% today. endport from brazil showed of year inventories may fall for a second year. -- metals, silver outshined gold last year. could sentiment be changing? alix steel and scarlet fu spoke to a significant gold producer. take on whether silver has run too far, too fast. if you look at the gold and silver price ratio, it is still
historically has a long way to go to get back to what has been normal. i think it ballooned up to more 1 last year, now back into the 70's. if you look at that as a proxy for where silver could go, there is more upside. silver is different from gold. with silver, you have the same dynamics of gold on the investment side but then you have half of the demand coming from real consumption, which has not been all that strong. electronics globally have been weak. despite that, silver has still done well. if you get both pistons of silver and gold going at the same time, investment and industrial demand, silver has a chance of flying. scarlet: at what point of the economic cycle does silver trade more as an industrial metal rather than a precious metal? >> hard to say, 10 years ago,
that industrial component was a lot less than 50/50. the beautiful thing about silver, a little bit of it is used in a lot of things, and a lot of those things are clean uses, things like solar panels, water purification, electronics. as those have grown, the proportion of total demand going into industrial applications has expanded. to think of the supply side on commodities, copper and oil, more supply needs to come off. deutsche bank said supply across silver still needs to be cut. that? agree with think silver supply is part of the story the people don't pay enough attention to. you look at over the next five years, silver supply is expected to decline. -- yearned last time for the first time in about a dozen years. effect.as a lag
height in 2011, 2012. as prices have come down, there his been no exploration in new assets. that first lag is now being felt in production and from scrap, looking over the next several years. i think that's a real positive. ahead toas we look what the federal reserve may or may not do with regard to raising interest rates, the stronger dollar, what impact will that have on silver given it's a dual identity? will take thed lead on anything changes, in terms of expectations on the trajectory of interest rates. probably gold will take it on the chin more than silver, if , as far asreversal where the fed seems to be going. alix: in terms of breaking down the industrial versus the investment part of it, on the flip side, you have not a lot of
big investors necessarily in silver, not as liquid market as gold, you could argue that as a downside. demandother hand, solar is not picking up either. how do you reconcile those two factors? >> last year, total demand going into solar panel was 75 million ounces. 10 years ago, it was less than 5 million. if you look at photovoltaic insulation in places like india, china, over the next five years, solar will only get bigger and bigger, as far as a component of overall demand. will beone day solar the kind of overall contributor to demand that 35mm film used to be for silver, a constant 30% of annual demand. on the institutional versus retail side, i think silver holders are generally a lot more retail-based, a lot more sticky. forlook at the etf holders
gold, you remember what happened in 2013, 2014. etf's were being sold left and right. silver, that did not happen. almost 50 and then sold off, they definitely have a retail washout. >> but etf's state constant. , one of the big things that came out, all-time record demand for coins and bars made from silver. silver needsfeel to get over $20 an ounce for your company to take a leg up in the stock, or is it stabilizing enough? >> stabilizing is more than enough. our plans were predicated on much lower prices. alix: what price? >> $15 silver, $1100 gold. all of this is just a tailwind to the top. this is just the results of the
harbor at our guys have done over the years. david: up next on bloomberg markets, hillary clinton claims a razor thin victory in kentucky. is there any chance democrats can come together to fight trunp? theld trump just released 11 names of the people he would consider to be his nomination to the supreme court. ♪
linkedin is looking at whether the previous security breach was bigger than previously thought. at the time, they reset the passwords of everyone they believed was part of the breach, which amounted to 6.5 million users. charter communications is closing its acquisition of time warner cable and bright house networks. time warner will eventually be phased out and the company will be known as charter communications. that is your business flash update. moments ago, presented nominee for the republican party donald trump released a list of 11 names he would consider nominating to the supreme court. bloomberg has match them. i want to bring in mark halperin. i'm looking at the names, thomas hardiman, names that are not household names. what do you make --
of them, we some are digesting the others, and we will be talking about whether of name does what it is intended to do, which is to reassure conservatives that donald trump, it selected, will pick nominees for the bench who are obstructionists and conservative. there is a history of republican presidents picking nominees to the bench who do not turn out to be conservative and it's an issue that many say, despite the reservations of donald trump, if he picks justices and judges who are more conservative than hillary clinton, that alone would be enough to set aside their reservations. my early read from the list is -- he is not an idiot, he did what he said he would do. he put for the names of the types of people that he said he would nominate. i don't remember anyone as a nominee putting a list over like this. it is a testament to the degree trump people
understand the judge issued to such a big one, that alone could put to rest a lot of people's concerns about do i vote for or not.p david: his sister on the list. mark: among other things, his sister is pro-choice. i don't know the whole list but i would expect there are not a lot of pro-choice judges on that list. david: is this a sense that this is something they wanted to do or was a reaction to his nature?tive mark: i don't know the nature. he does understand that there is a burden on him that others don't have because he doesn't have a record in public life and because he has had moderate positions on a range of issues on many things. recently, took a position on
transgender bathrooms that conservatives did not like. he is smart in doing this. if the names check out -- and the names that i know are respected conservative jurists -- i think he will do himself some good. david: let me ask you about the democratic primaries yesterday. a narrow victory for hillary clinton. is she satisfied with that, or was it a disappointment? >> better than losing. if she hadrday, loss, would have been one of the darker days of her run against bernie sanders. because of the disunity in the party, based on what happened in there hase dispute really exposed the fact that senator sanders and its supporters are in no hurry right now to get behind hillary clinton. had she lost, it would have emboldened him even more, and she would have lived to the
nomination. now she has the chance to argue that she is finishing strong enough to get the majority and to have a greater position of strength vis-a-vis sanders at the convention. david: terry mcauliffe was on bloomberg earlier this morning. he was asked about this. >> we went through this eight years ago. i remember supporters say we would never vote for senator obama. ,nce we got through the process went through the convention, we were so unified as a party and president obama went on to a historic win. we will be there again today but we have to go through the process. senator sanders has every right to get his message out there, but this is no different from what was happening in years ago. david: a clinton supporter. he talks about unity. in light of what we saw in nevada, what people who support bernie sanders say about the
tactics there, do you see the similarity between the two elections? mark: i believe in the end they will get to a good place of unity. going into the convention eight years ago, hillary clinton showed up resigned to the fact that she needed to find a way to leave the convention in unity with barack obama. she did not like losing but she came with a plan of how to get to unity. bernie sanders plans to go to the convention in philadelphia with a plan to dominate the platform committee, extract policy concessions, to try to change the party in fundamental ways, to challenge the way hillary clinton won the nomination, particularly superdelegates. he may leave philadelphia in a spirit of unity, but he will not arrive looking or it. that is a big difference. david: we have this list of potential supreme court justices, his latest filings inh the sec, the longest history, he claims proudly.
still has not made his tax returns public. enough pressure to release them? sonk: a normal per would then to it. i think he is right that the media cares more than most, but the media does care. i think the pressure will cause him to turn them over. i don't know when that will be. david: thank you. let's go to the markets desk. stocks dipped after the fed minutes were released 45 minutes ago. ramy: looking at some movers off of corporate action. i want to talk about some m&a rumors, specifically these two stocks. apache is up by 2.7%, at its highest in three weeks or so after an oil website reported that occidental petroleum is planning to acquire apache, and
that apache would tell their employees at a town hall today. apache has not commented. ntal has not commented either. occi at the lowest for about two weeks. we also want to talk about that had do rumors with church and white. up 1%. they make a bunch of different consumer products including vitamins, contraceptives. there is speculation that proctor and gamble is interested in acquiring church and dwight company. one note, church & dwight did and it that it was the best destination for cash. meantime, in the share buyback world, airlines, southwest airlines up by 1.3%.
that is after the board okayed a share buyback on the order of $2 billion, a 7.5% part of its total market cap. also boosting its quarterly dividend to $.10 from 7.5 cents. another piece of good news, reiterating its plan for 2016 available seat mile growth. sonic, they are talking about a share buyback. right now, shares are down by almost 8%. while they say they will be doing a share buyback on the order of $155 million, also admitting third quarter, sales growth will be below the full-year target of 4% to 6%. now shares are down the most since the start of the year. david: thank you. the google ceo delivers the keynote address.
david: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm david gura. google's annual developer conference io is off and running. several highlights include artificial intelligence products. cory johnson is live in not view, california. -- mountain view, california. tell us about it and how much is this company betting on ai? think about it as a challenge to google that ai poses. you don't go to your pc to do searches as much as you do on your mobile device. what if you are just shouting at another device and you are
getting the answers before you even formed question? that is why they want to keep searching happening at google and that is why artificial intelligence is of such great interest. they have been hiring around us in larger numbers than any other company in the world. today we see the fruits of those labors, including a messaging app that uses your ability to ask a question to your phone and have the answer show up. , artificialcenes intelligence, all of that machine learning. sundar pichai talked about this. >> we want users to have an ongoing two-way dialogue with google. we want you to help get things done in the real world. and they want to do it for you, understanding your context, giving you control of it. we think of that as building each user their own individual google.
that is where the software component comes in, they imagine a world where there is a much more fluid conversation happening between the user and google's answers. david: i know you will be speaking to the vice president for virtual reality. what have they announced on that front at the conference? going to start a full day in some virtual reality features into the android n. if you don't like the name, they -- exacting some suggest excepting some suggestions. powerful appsst will begin to have virtual reality big into them. really going whole hog on virtual reality. and then taking that allo experience that you may have with your mobile device or pc but rolling it into a physical device called google home, much
like the amazon echo product. you can yell across the room, hey, google, find a list of this, what is the answer to this question? taking computer-generated responses that will actually figure out what you want before you even know you want it. david: google proudly says more than a million people in china are watching this conference today. a lot of big tech companies turning their attention to china. what does that signal to you, the interest from the chinese people? cory: it is all about the future of android. one of the interesting things, unlike ios, where you end up with 90% of the users on the new software as soon as it's released, or within a year, with android, they invent a lot of stuff but most of us do not see it. there are more android devices than ios devices. android software released a year ago has fewer than 10% of users using it.
it is a struggle to get the latest stuff out there and used. ,t this developers conference so important to them. the developer community wants to write to the latest androids, so that will drive more users to google to do search, whether it is shouting across the room or in their pcs. thank you, cory johnson. at the google i/o conference. he will be back in the next hour with an interview with the vice president of virtual reality. how strong is the european economy? coffeeirman of the illy group joins us. ♪
betty: from bloomberg world headquarters here in new york, i am betty liu. stocks are raising their gains after the police of the fed minutes, fluctuating as the central bank raises a willingness to raise rates in june if the economy continues to improve. coffee prices are struggling to rebound. with futures posting a 60% drop in the past year, how does that impact business? andrea illy joins us this hour. google unveiling his latest creation at its android developers can't it's. we are live with one of the executives behind google's virtual reality business, a key area that google hopes to expand into. and maybe eventually dominate. e