tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg May 23, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
and i am mark barton. ♪his i york you take you from new to london to xeric in the next hour. here's what we are watching today. still making details on what could be the biggest german from monsanto, raises concerns. the company may be stretching its finances. shery: the final countdown until the u.k. votes to stay or leave the european union. supporters and the opposition on the brexit are going all out. can the threat of economic instability sway the public? turning to an interesting debates out of switzerland, where the government is considering paying each of its citizens two point $5,000 a month, can a
conditional basic income spread to other countries? 90 minutes into the trading day in the u.s., let's head to the market desk where julie hyman has the latest. stocks are still fluctuating. julie: not much change overall. even call it makes very easily in terms what we're seeing today. you can see the nasdaq is holding up relatively well versus the other major averages at this point in time. mindsets are changing about the fed, now they're looking to economic data the remainder of the week. take a look at the bloomberg and the imap, you have materials is the best performing group. tech is up as well, but just barely. energy is really the big drag today. it's a push and pull between energy and materials in terms of the group. energy, oil prices are pulling back on more supply in canada is coming back online. that's pushing oil lower here, about .8%. exxon, and chevron nothing huge declines, but enough to pull
that energy index lower. on the materials front, it's about a potential deal and one that's not to be. the one that's not to be is cf industries, which had planned a $4.5 billion -- $5.5 billion acquisition of its rival in the netherlands. however, because of the new in version guidelines in the united states, these two are now abandoning the deal. cfl the call saying it's ready to go it alone as a standalone entity. it's going to pay hundred $50 million to oci and the terms of this initial agreement. see oci down sharply in european trading. cf. meantime is getting a boost of 7%. evidently been talking about all -- theylong, they are are pharmaceuticals offering to buy monsanto. there's some skepticism that the dough -- the deal is not going to be chewed done. monsanto is far away from that now. shares trading lower.
the 2-year note continues the climb on these pull forward expectations for the fed to potentially raise rates like 0.91% now. also we have our eyes on the japanese yen today. it's rising versus the dollar. you see the dollar falling versus the japanese yen. we get the latest expert data out of japan, exports holding for a seventh consecutive month in april. that story is sending shares not only of their company down, but it's the worst performer on the stoxx 600 today, which is falling by .4%. a busy day for news, under the slumped in watches. the market for watches cut its saying reduce from buy it sees a sharp series and trading. the price target has been cut to 390, we are at
288 today. it said the company doesn't look surprise slump. as generally maintained production its workforce and marketing spending as its anticipated the recovery. shares in swatch today down by 2.66%. the unicredit speculation continue sending it shares 2.3% lowers, the chief executive could resign as soon as tomorrow, according to people familiar with the matter. they say the board will meet tomorrow, basically, there is general discontent about governance, the bank's performance. he's cutting thousands of jobs and selling assets to comply with tougher regulatory standards. but he has repeatedly ruled out a share sale, leading it among europe's least capitalized banks. shares today down by 2.33%. will tomorrow be the end? interesting data today out of the eurozone. we had growth in the eurozone private sector, unexpectedly
slowing in may, signaling the region won't maintain its a stellar growth and experience in the first quarter. we had a pmi composite of manufacturing and services that fell to 52.9, as you can see there from 53. in thel, an increase forecast. the economy expanded .5% in the first quarter. that was the quickest pace in the year. it's inflation is lagging, -.2%. a far cry from the ecb's goal of inflation just below 2% on the horizon. there is evidence that the stellar growth in the first quarter didn't continue in the second quarter. shery: press pressure is not only a problem in the you, but also everywhere else these days. thanks a lot. let's check in on the first word news desk. taylor has more.
taylor: we are starting with islamic state, claiming responsibility for a series of deadly bombings in coastal government stronghold in syria. at least 80 people were killed and more than 200 were wounded. they were the first attacks of their kind to target civilians in those areas since the start of syria's civil war more than five years ago. egypt is sending a remote-controlled submarine to help search for the missing egyptair jet. this will join ships and planes from several nations that are taking part in the mediterranean. they will try to look at the jets voice and data recorders, which could be 10,000 feet below the surface. french investigators say the plane generated automatic radio messages about smoke in the cabin just moments before disappearing. in some breaking news in baltimore, the judge has acquitted a police officer of assault charges and other charges in the case of freddie gray. inwas a black man who died police custody, his death last year sparked riots in baltimore.
austria, the far right party has conceded defeat in the race for president. mail-in votes gave the victory to alexander mandeville and an independent backed by the green. freedom party candidate had tried to capitalize on public unhappiness with immigration. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i'm taylor raikes. shery: details from buyers bid for monsanto are out for the unsolicited offer to buy monsanto for safety $2 billion, which is $122 a share in cash would make it the world biggest dealer of farm chemicals. shares postingou muted gains, signaling investors remain skeptical about the deal. chief executive joined the surveillance team earlier to talk about his attempt to pull
off the biggest corporate takeover ever by german cavity. -- a german company. opportunity to drive our business model going forward with the strengths of monsanto. they are very much convinced that this is a value proposition for the monsanto shareholders, and we are also convinced and fully committed to this transaction. tom: they take your debt out to 42 billion euros, critically, they don't see return on investment capital doing better than cost of capital until 2023. can your shareholders wait for our oic return that goes on five years or six years or seven years? matter of fact, in the first year after closing the transaction already, we see double digits turning to share
accretion, and also the ability to they a higher dividend to our shareholders. starting from the second year, this will be a double-digit increase, about -- that's what it's going to be over and above our current standalone. in terms of return on capital, after the third year, and not way into the 20 20's, the way some people calculate, we will be earning the cost of capital and the premium thereafter. rapidctually a fairly value creating proposition, that's why we are so convinced about this. for more, i want to bring in aaron kirchfeld, who has been with us for the beginning of all of this in the industry. the hundred six dollars is the monsanto share price. -- $106ls us investors
is the monsanto share price. that tells us investors are not convinced. aaron: they need to put more money on the table. from a strategic point of view, it will be difficult for monsanto to argue against the deal. they said we wanted to grid model. we need strength in chemicals, we have strengthened seats, put us together we will be unstoppable. from that standpoint, it's going to be hard for them. with debt investors and stock investors freak out if it went out to $145. aaron: that's what investors are shown on the buyer side. they feel like $122 might be a stretch of equity raise. plus a whole lot of debt, that to stretch even further. as i going to going well -- that is not going to go well. shery: this could be the biggest corporate deal by a german company. what does this tell you about the ceo? he has been at the helm for only
a month. that he isells you gutsy. for someone to go out with that big of deal in their first month on the job means they have conviction. as he said in the interview earlier on bloomberg tv, he believes this is a unique opportunity with every thing shifting in the industry, with doubt upon merging, with the chinese buying syngenta, he seizes moment to strike and he thinks down the road, that's what he's arguing that shareholders will reward that. he talks about eps accretion and strength in r&d and seeds. hobbies that wants to do this deal, otherwise he wouldn't take such a big risk this early on. shery: what happens if the deal goes through? how do they come together? aaron: there will be a huge integration effort. they will focus a lot on cost. they said themselves they want to save $1.5 billion in the next three years, that will require cutting costs whether it's jobs come overhead, admin. this would be a lot of work to do. a big issue will be regulators. what will regulators say?
don't have anything to do with oil. part of the founding plan to diversify the economy. ge will invest in water, aviation, digital, and other projects by 2020. the company will double its saudi workforce to 4000 people. has gotten in order for 100 jets for vietnam. billion, than $11 although airlines generally give discounts on big orders, the agreement was times to coincide with president obama's visit to vietnam. the board of tribune publishing has rejected the latest takeover offer. the publisher of the chicago tribune and the los angeles times call the bid clearly inadequate trade they are offering about $864 million, including debt. meanwhile, a billionaire has taken a 13% stake in tribune.
that's your business flash for this hour. if you weeks ago, the market was weighing the risk of a u.s. recession, and now the market is anticipating a rate rise in june. the s&p 500 fluctuating all morning, gaining slightly right now in positive territory, this is ahead of data this week on manufacturing, housing, consumer sentiment, and growth for food on the strength of the u.s. economy. mark: our next guest says not so fast. they may not be secular stagnation, but growth remains low. joining us now is manish singh. thanks for joining us today. the s&p has not hit the high for a year, and many have looked back through history and tried to tell us what it means. is it a bearish signal the longer we go without a high in the s&p 500? manish: i don't think it's a bearish signal. we are in low growth environments.
precisely what i said that i don't buy the whole secular thing. secular stagnation was first mentioned in 1938, but he said the u.s. is not ever going to go upwardly again, all the growth that happened, how wrong he was. it's a slow growth environment. it does need a lot of government response, and we done that in the past. in all this money lying offshore, they have a cash pile of 1.7 join dollars lying outside. if that doesn't come in, you are not going to get new investment. you saw investment fell by 5%, that's not a good number. i think there are concerns about how the growth to continue, but i don't believe that we're going into recession was going to be a very dire scenario. you seeing it's not moving. it's hardly 3%. we have gone 52 weeks without a high, and we are 3% from the all-time high. mark: the s&p barely moved to the earnings season. what does that tell us?
what will shifted out of this range? manish: the earnings season has not been very good. the other thing i think that's happening is positioning has become more important. the market participants are looking at how the market is positioned. you move your sector, it's not about a secular growth that we're talking about. the dispersion is going to be very small, in normal times people are concerned about this. that's what we're seeing. it seems like july is becoming the favorite time for a rate hike, at least on the futures markets. is that your call? i don't believe the rates are going to rise, probably not even in july. the reason i say that is let's look at inflation numbers. inflation numbers came out, it was slightly higher trade look at the breakeven inflation number. all of that showing a trend down. if you look at the 5, 10 year at a 1.5%.
that if theying is increase the rate once the goes off and doesn't talk about the path of the destination, what increasears is a rate once every other meeting. that would be dangerous. i don't think it's going there. they are still concerned about china. china is a big factor that the fed has to keep in mind. if anything happens to the dollar, chinese yuan, it comes back to the fed and the u.s. dollar. that's not going to be in the fed's interest. shery: you mentioned the chinese yuan now climbing to one-month high. are now500, u.s. stocks moved by earnings. it all about currency play now? we are seeing the yen and the yuan gaining this month. what do you think? manish: the dollar plays a big part in terms of the emerging market in the developing world as well. i think that we are going to
have a very boring equity market. that's my feeling. the only thing they can get an exciting's u.s. debt. i hope not for the wrong reasons, that is in the race. mark: check out this chart, showing how strategists basically in the last few months have kept their forecast for the end of year stoxx 600 to flat. they are saying it's not going to move anywhere, that was the situation in march, april, and may. the does mean we have a 6%, 7% upside from here. are you on that camp? manish: in your, yes. expeditions are more depressed. we nearly had an election where there was a political vote for a party that are anti-immigration. is money that's being spent going to be a kind of fiscal stimulus. againd say that there is, -- they are flagging in europe, not a very convincing gain. singh, cross bridge
shery: welcome back. live from london and new york, i'm shery ahn. a beautiful day in the u.k. capital. mark: summer has begun, finally. this is the european close on bloomberg markets. that earningecast will slow as profit jumped. they expect earnings to rise about 13% as airlines cut prices to entice customers. chief executive michael o'leary spoke to bloomberg earlier about
the company's growth prospects, especially in view of an eu referendum. michael: the u.k. economy is struggling somewhat. there's a lack of confidence. i think a lot of that is driven ,y the old brexit uncertainty it's an overhanging starting in the u.k. economy for the last six months. if there's a strong remain and you can take away that uncertainty, we as a large foreign investor will continue to invest heavily in britain as long as it remains a member of the european union. i think a strong vote on the 23rd of june will help to eliminate that. world istill be -- the an anemic place at the moment, growth is slow in most markets. the u.k. is better positioned than most other large economies, you have a competitive economy, you don't have a confidence problem that you have in many other development nations. the u.k. is poised to grow strongly once the huge uncertainty of the brexit referendum is removed.
we see it in our forward-looking's. with interesting about the rest of the summer is forward bookings are running about 2% ahead of where they were last year, but at lower prices, but the u.k. consumer visitors are booking their summer holidays, they are going to travel, they're just traveling with ryanair now with anyone else. >> you mentioned the egyptair flight, the extremist be abuzz with theories about what happened, because we do not know. there were auto messages being generated from the cockpit, what are you hearing? michael: the working assumption, if you look at what's been picked up out of the sea so far, it looks to have been some kind of explosion, no idea what caused the explosion. we need to recover the black box to find out exactly what happened. but it's not good in the fact that we've had the bomb attacks in paris and brussels in december, paris in the spring. now the egyptair flight was diverted from paris -- it isn't good. i don't get going to alter --
the great thing about terrorism is it's always doomed to fail. they try to change the way people behave. they're trying to stop people from traveling abroad, but it is going to put downward pressure on airline pricing the remainder of this calendar year. and probably out into 2017 as it were. that's good for consumers. it's never been cheaper to fly, and it's ever been able to -- it's never been cheaper to fly ryanair. mark: michael o'leary speaking with bloomberg. take a peek at what's happening to european equities when we are four minutes away from the end of the monday session. we had our biggest gain in a month on friday, stocks looking like they will finish lower. the european closes next. ♪
york, you are watching the european close. it was a topsy-turvy day, we opened up about up 8/10 of 1%. the second consecutive weekly gain in a month, the big story making the bid for monsanto. if successful, they will create the world's largest supplier of farm chemicals and genetically modified seed. because bayerst shares are lower and mitts -- monsanto is below the offer premium from the main ninth closing price. value the enterprise coming from selling shares to
existing shareholders. this is our lovely function which tells you everything you need to know about the mergers and acquisitions world. i got into the bayer page and this shows every single detail -- every single deal that bayer has made since 1994. biggest acquisition in german history, it will be the biggest m&a deal of the year, as well. let's move on because sports directors in the u.k. sporting -- sporting goods, goldman sachs downgraded the company to neutral, saying eps may not row until 2018. they said demand in the european close that clothing market, and elevated operational expenditure
growth due to a one-off wage bill increase may stall earnings eurohare growth, even with 2016, the big soccer tournament taking place in france. the stock is down 39%, the price target has been lowered to four pounds from 5.25 pounds. i want to tell you about access investing inop tobacco and invest its assets in the industry, it will sell its 200 million stock -- euros of stock in tobacco companies. insurers are part of the solution when it comes to health prevention, to protect our clients, that is why they are doing it, shares are lower by 4/10 of 1%. boeing,'m looking at
another victim corporate story because they just finished a $11 billion deal. the company won an order for 100 written only private airline, one more lcc in the a -- aviation market just exploded in the past few years. trying to carry signs of agreement why -- well president obama was visiting the is no. stocks here are lacking clear direction, what you waiting all morning. the s&p 500 currently unchanged but one market that has been a firmly positive territory throughout the morning has been nasdaq. more fromolittle has the nasdaq in manchester -- midtown manhattan. >> we do have the nasdaq trading moderately higher, up 3/10 of
1%. 1.7%, thiss up follows last week's big 5% mood -- ing, a stunning fast suppliers toed its prepare for production of 78 million iphone seven, well above the 65 million units. not surprisingly, we do have the suppliers trading higher in helping the nasdaq. really, just a very big reversal for apple and the suppliers as well on this bullish report from economic daily news. shery: you mentioned a potential shift in momentum, what does this mean in the chart? >> we take a look at this chart of apple over the last year and see the shift in momentum is pretty common at this point.
we have gone up and down between the buyer and the seller. the sellers are little bit more in control because of a descending lower high but as for now, we have the stocks bouncing back up off the buying support. buyers are sending it higher. this turn in momentum could continue for the nasdaq's bigger member. you.: thank let's check in on the first word news. taylor rates has more from the newsroom. taylor: we start with greece, with a complete a review of the bailout program, creditors are prepared to hand out 12 lian dollars. graceful use the money to pay bills and cover debt servicing costs according to an easy document seen by bloomberg news. returned --
germany's chancellor has returned to turkey, trying to shore up a agreement on refugees. minister agreed to halt the influx of refugees making their way to europe, but he says the eu has been slow to deliver almost $7 billion in a and its promise of these at free travel for turkish citizens -- of these a free travel -- of visa-free travel for turkish citizens. over theages -- weekend, motorists rushed to the other tanks because of blockades and strikes that threatens supplies. workers are protesting proposed changes in labor laws. a shakeup at one of the best-known teams in football. manchester united has fired leaving doll after two seasons. he led the team to an fa cup title on saturday, that could not a fan after man united failed to qualify -- qualify for
the champions league. starting in august, traits of key parts of london's underground will run throughout the night on weekends. the city's new mayor said the announcement today. nine trains were supposed to start a year ago, but plans were opposed by unions. news powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. exactly one month to go until the u.k. both a mother to leave or stay within the european union and prime minister david cameron and the chancellor are going all out, hoping to convince voters to remain within the eu, warning of dire economic consequences should the leave vote prevail. take a listen. >> we are last month from the treasury that long-term impact
of leaving would be a cost to every household a: to 4300 pounds. --ay we publish analysis analysis of a would happen if the immediate months and years after a british exit as businesses freeze up, confident strains, uncertainty clouds over and economic shock shakes the nation. mark: joining us with the latest, the u.k. government reporter. talk us briefly through the scenarios from. the treasury pamphlet. 08 is more than a pamphlet. is fairly chunky, they have two scenarios, that or very bad. it, shock andd shavit -- shock and severe shock. this is slightly tricky, but they say gdp would be down 3.6% or down 6%, but you have to upset that with the fact that
the office of budget responsibility is currently forecasting around 4% growth over the next two years, so it sort of flattens down, or down, and unemployment up half one million or a hundred thousand, house prices down, real wages down. mark: it is pretty grave. balance,terest of let's hear from -- who resigned as pensions secretary in march. >> we have a treasury report giving you just the downside and not the upside, no recognition that the eurozone crisis is the biggest threat that we face and remaining in the eurozone or the eu will tie us into the eurozone that is in big trouble. , youof all, this report cannot trust treasury reports by the chancellor's own words. mark: is that fair, you cannot
trust treasury reports? forecasting is notoriously tricky and there are some caveats. the first is that when we have a they haveforecast, three scenarios they were working with which went from not too awful to really awful. for this one, they've knocked off what you would think of as not too awful. they are already forecasting quite awful and truly awful and that is because the treasury is trying to get to a conclusion. the other point that is worth noting is the nature of these things, the bid of this forecast that does the work is 215 for people who have one at home. it essentially says we think that spending will be depressed because people will have read our awful forecast about how things are going to be, and they will adjust accordingly. there is a self-fulfilling element to this.
that said, it is not unreasonable to say that the -- there were a lot of indications that the pound would fall. there are lots of other bodies and there would be reasonable questions to ask about inward investment, about employment decisions, there be a whole bunch of questions about how contracts and things are going to work if britain votes for brexit, there'll be a lot of uncertainty on june 24. shery: so nobody will want to uncertainty, how would believe can convince voters? >> the best argument -- how would the levers convince voters? >> you can have the uncertainty of this way are the uncertainty of staying, which is that the eurozone continues to be in trouble, you might expand to bring other countries with
immigrants that people in britain don't necessarily want, that things might go horribly wrong, the argument is that this is a burning building and we should get out, it is a choice of uncertainties. mark: let's look at our favorite function, and you look at the number cruncher, politics eu 47.5 toum, it is remain, 40.5 to leave, but it is the probability score that is getting more and more certain, it is 17% in -- 17% brexit probability, this assumption of referendums is that in the final month, you see a swing to the status quo, as people get nervous. >> you can see the don't starting to creep down as people make their minds up, you can see the gap between leave and remain at the top and leave just widen,ath, gesturing to
so the assumption that drives this forecast is that people will go for certainty. what could change that? you could have a massive immigration crisis, we were talking before about some kind of black swan event, you could have something that makes people think my goodness this is really not on an organization that we want to be a part of. what that might look like, i do not know and the other thing is the polls could be wrong, they have been wrong before. mark: great to see youmark:. -- mark: great to see you. ♪
shery: time for our global battle of the charts are we take a look at some of the most telling charts of the day and what they mean for investors. what do you have for us? me is the most important chart underscoring credit market is year, the -- the big question has been are we seeing contagion from the energy downturn in some of the bankruptcies we have seen? this chart shows you, not so much, we are not seeing that agent as you can be, the different colors are present different sectors and number of bankruptcy filings this year, this is only were companies have debt of $100 million or more and you can see that right, glaring dress, really increasing dramatically, showing that the bulk of the increase has stemmed from the energy
sector, not so much in the others, that is the good news. the bad news is, everyone is expecting the cycle to turn and it looks like we really have not seen the bulk of some of the potential weakness a lot of people are expecting in the --er industries cut, industries, so the question is will that come sooner or later? shery: what do you have for us, mark? mark: i've never seen so many colors on a chart, lisa wins most colorful chart award, that is the first award. what i bring to you is one month to go until the u.k. referendum, which got me thinking on the -- david cameron announced the referendum of saturday, february the 20th, many people forget
that was the day he announced the referendum, so it got me thinking, how have assets fared with a month to go, so started bondthe bloomberg u.k. index, this is an index of u.k. government bonds and the purple line is the percentage increase, up by .26%. .1%,uries have fallen by euros in government bonds have gained 1%. if they vote to leave the european union, guilt could favor from -- that is the first point to consider. sterling, point was it also a doubt a small gain against the dollar, it has actually risen by 20 -- .32%. in the week after the referendum was called, the pound actually dropped by 3.7%, to the lowest
level since 2009. last week, we've seen polls which have benefited the remaining cap and in the months leading up to the referendum, the focus in the market has been on the fed only not raising rates in a hurry, that has changed in the last week. the best-performing asset class bystocks, the ftse is up 3.12%, investors have been putting money into the foot the as the pound has declined in the ftse -- the ftse is a global index of minors and oil companies. it may not be as colorful, but you need to know one month away .rom the brexit vote are,: as fascinated as you i have to say i'm a little tired about hearing about brexit and i have to give it to lisa as she coordinated her dress with the chart. mark: there enough.
shery: welcome back. this is the european close of bloomberg markets. time for the latest business flash, a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news. the largest insurance company in france is getting rid of all of its assets in the tobacco industry, about $2 billion worth of stocks and bonds. they call smoking the world's biggest threat to public health. the u.k. and 13 other european countries are urging caution on any new eu rules on internet services.
france and germany are calling for limits on the growing power of google and other online companies. the eu is likely to say this couldhat with companies no longer avoid rules that govern under industries to telecommunication and broadcasting. the world's largest sovereign wealth fund has facing a wider ban on investments in coal and other fossil fuels. a majority of parties in norway's parliament want tighter guidelines. that is the latest bloomberg business flash. switzerland, one of the world's largest richest countries could be the testing ground for a policy known as unconditional basic income. under a new proposal, adults and switzerland would get about 2500
dollars a month, children get about $650 for doing nothing. shot tot is a long pass. bloomberg'sow is bureau business chief. wish that itlight will pass and it would be nice freet a $30,000 a year for check, it probably will not pass and the government is opposing this initiative and of the moment, the latest poll shows us that table and switzerland are quite reasonable and 72% of the people oppose this. that, $30,000 might sound like a lot, this is just barely above the poverty line in switzerland, which is at
$29,500, so it would be a misconception to think that you and getst do nothing $30,000 and have a beautiful life, but it is interesting. this has to interest in other countries, many others such as canada and finland are looking at this as an experiment. could this take off, somewhere? i think it should be, and that is what most of the people agree upon, that wells with the wind is a small country, it is probably still too big to be a testing ground for quite a that has not idea been tested in smaller environments, before. can kyle like holland,
looking closer to what switzerland is doing, and unless a miracle is happening, the vote will not pass, and switzerland will not be the testing ground for it. is -- itid that, there definitely triggered a discussion and switzerland is not known for doing this call it just things, and the vote being there and being discussed in a country like switzerland makes you wonder. mark: thank you for joining us. that is it for the european close. today,closed lower markets is next. ♪
headquarters in new york, welcome to bloomberg markets. >> fed officials are promoting a case to raise interest rates as the markets await for the direction, crude falls for a fourth day. german pharma giant bayer looking at a huge cash offer for monsanto. >> fight for control of redstone's media empire heats up. we are halfway through the u.s. trading day, let's