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tv   On the Move  Bloomberg  May 24, 2016 2:30am-4:01am EDT

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get america's fastest internet. only from xfinity. guy: welcome to "on the move." it is a: 30 over in frankfurt and where cap you down -- it is 8:30 over in frankfurt. we are counting you down. once a downgraded. the week revenues -- deutsche downgraded. -- we areevenues going to have the latest from frankfurt. stay tuned for a better return. morgan stanley ceo tells a bloomberg that he sees "a lot of upside" after a challenging q1.
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brexit and the bank. mark carney is back in brussels. how hard willie -- how hard will he hit the league camp this time? we are a half hour away from the european open. how do we think and's or shaping up? -- how do we think things are shaping up? .3% here in europe. the euro stoxx are down three -- .3%. we finished in negative territory yesterday. euro-dollar, keep an eye on what is happening with the dollar. it remains a focus for investors . the dollar getting a little bit of traction. brent trading come still 4794. gold trading down and 3%. -- trading down .3%.
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keep an eye on what is happening with the turkish lira today. we are going to get more information little later on. what is the future on one of the moderate reformers? we will talk about that later. that's get you caught up. here is bloomberg first word news with juliette saly. juliette: china may need a bailout worth trillions of dollars. that is according to an analysts. of the risk from china's credit binge. she cautions that beijing will have to provide vast sums to? bad debt. o tackle bad debt. came, --he chaos that yuan is down this month. the pboc has learned its lesson and will not let the market fall
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into panic. to the investment, one of the oldest and most expensive hedge investment,tudor one of the oldest and most expensive hedge funds is trimming. will reducehe firm most rates. that is according to a letter sent to clients and obtained a bloomberg. 27%.ee is worth after months of protests against francoise alonso government that's over francoise alonso government -- meanwhile the officers of the socialist party have been vandalized across the country. most recently yesterday. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in
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more than 150 news bureaus around the world. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . guy. guy: thank you very much. deutsche bank in very specific terms has had its credit rating cut by moody's. the banks long-term deposit is to abovee rating -- is two above junk. matt, you were there a few days back, you are watching will is happening. the good news keeps on going. matt: absolutely. these are problems i think deutsche bank knew about and have been -- and has been prepared for, especially on the sec side. deutsche bank new and investors new that more losses were coming. more losses were coming. the chief financial officer has come out and said as long as we
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stay in the a levels for the long-term investment rating, then we are fine. three is just as good "a2."wo -- as deutsche bank you can see over my shoulder. guy: you can look out the window and see what is going on. i don't know what details we are going to get right now. matt, look. here's an institution that is going to struggle to get its plan through. it is going to have to work really hard to make sure all of the details that he wants to see happen actually end up happening. that is a concern. goinglly, the revenue is to limit his options and the ability to make its plan -- to make his plan work. matt: the have a few problems. three main problems facing john
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cryan. the slope investment banking and trading has not helped his come back. the negative interest rate policy here and in asia are not -- is not helping the banks policy regardless of what mario draghi may suggest. these lawsuits, they have paid up $14 billion since 2012. that could get bigger. john cryan has said that is one of his main focus is is putting a stop to one of the big losses this year. first quarter profit fell 61 percent. when we were here last year, john cryan said he may have another loss this year. a second annual loss, there are a lot of problems facing him. the most interesting thing will be sit -- will to see -- if we get a turnaround in the slump and if this zero interest rate policy actually is helping banks
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as draghi has suggested. guy: matt, thank you very much indeed. remember we are watching unicredit today. will he be there at the end of the day? coming up later, we are going to be talking in an interview with berkeley's ceo, just daily -- -- jess ceo, just daily staley. got-- we've problems at deutsche bank, germany's biggest bank. we need to get this fixed. how far away are we? moody's is concern that it is going to struggle. jean: it is all about the execution. deutsche bank is still investment grade. the questioning is if you're on
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the outlook -- we have seen with credit suisse before, rather than any kind of critical view if you want other banking sector right now. that said, as you rightly pointed out, the business model for investment banks is challenged. probably -- you need to be selective in terms of the kind of insurance you will invest in. trading have deutsche incredibly low. is there more bad news they could push it further south? to be honest, investors are priced in most of what they expect to be on the bad news front? most one of probably the fixedred toward investors
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income. you got a lot more returns and a lot more attractive risk reward, buying bonds and equity. there is a very big question mark in terms of how reliable using book value as an indicator of the true value of these institutions. guy: james gorman of goldman stat -- of morgan stanley says things are going to get better. is that your view? q3,1 was just horrible and q2 are better, -- jean: it is different if you look at things from a u.s. perspective. as you rightly pointed out, we still have in europe some unresolved issues. nonperforming loans which is
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crippling the italian banking sector. the u.k. financial institutions institutions.- looking from a u.s. perspective you have a slightly different view from what is happening in europe. guy: thank you very much for your time. .e is going to stay with us we are going to hear more from morgan stanley. tv.s on bloomberg he thinks the u.k. will stay in the eu. we will bring you that interview next. ♪
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guy: welcome back. lovely, lovely, lovely. this is as good as it is going to get in london. we are going to see highs of 18 today. yes, that is what we are going to have today. let's get some details with juliette saly. juliette: thanks guy. deutsche bank is the subject of an investigation into whether the -- they inflated the values of securities and the mortgage bond trading business. that is according to people with knowledge. in recording the losses that have helped boost the banks earnings for several quarters. john cryan has another headache
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with mood is cutting the banks ratings to two grades above junk . touches performance has -- deutsche's performance has been week. macro economic uncertainty. singapore's central bank which has ordered bsi bank to shut its operations in the island nation. pointedtary authority to poor management and growth misconduct by some of the banks staff. the group says the ceo is stepping down. facebook is changing how it determines which news stories are trending. that is after recent allegations of bias and its selections. sitesl no longer required -- require stores that are found
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on sites that are known as news leaders. is recalling more vehicles linked to the potential lethal airbags. the latest recall involves nearly 1.6 million vehicles in the u.s. including certain corolla, and lexus lines. that is your bloomberg business flash. guy. guy: thank you very much indeed. more with james gorman. he told bloomberg that he thinks britain will choose to remain in the eu. >> my guess is they vote to stay. should they not, there is a two-year transition. it will have some impact on global investment banking businesses. some increased expenses, but it
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is not that meaningful. i'm more concerned for the markets. rightly for the state of the european union which has been an extraordinary success over 70 years. tinkering with that model just doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. medecin is still with us. you listen to them and you think the market is still going to be fine. the market looks really relaxed about a brexit story. jean: the market has chosen to focus -- that is where the risk lies. if you look in polls, it is pretty even. when you look at the bookies, it is a very large majority in favor of the remain camp. the biggest risk might be complacency ahead of the vote. -- kind of like a call, if
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the kind of wake-up call, if -- guy: how do i position my portfolio back of walk me through -- my portfolio? walk me through how i should set up. jean: the financial sectors, you need to be quite careful trading with that. consequences on the british pound. beyond that and more generally speaking, what you need to build right now is a portfolio. we have so many decisions like the fed coming in june or july. to need to have a portfolio look through those whatever the outcome of the brexit. at axample, if you look company which is on the verge of emerging right now, sabmiller with ab inbev.
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you have a very stable share price. is shaving off volatility in your portfolio. a very diversified balance portfolio with companies which are not too dependent on these kind of geopolitical economic risks. guy: we get through july, what is the picture their? u.k., july,ne people are saying the most likely fed decision will come there. talked to me, the rest of the year looks like a pretty bumpy ride -- talk to me, the rest of the year looks like a pretty bumpy right. .ean: stronger volatility we have seen some very sudden inversion of momentum. investors will have it -- will have convictions.
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changing momentum while all the think youging -- i need to be very clear in terms of what is the macro scenario? what do you believe in? where do you think the fundamentals are strong and rely on them. one thing that is interesting in , when you look at the relative performance of one sector, it has been very much reasoned by -- the market is quite expensive. put someger, you can very active relative trades. you.great to see thank you for hanging around with us. it want to see the latest on the u.k. referendum, you will see
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all of the latest news on that. we are minutes away from the market open. up next, we will look at corbyn movers, including deutsche bank -- corporate movers, including deutsche bank. a look at those businesses when we come back. ♪
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guy: 7:52 in london. let's find out how the markets traded overnight. work our way to the market open.
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juliette saly standing by with details. juliette: not a great session tuesday for asian markets. we are on fed watch now. a likely would just the likelihood that we could see another lift off in june. -- the likelihood that we could see another lift off in june. the market down .8% and asian markets. the hang seng is off 20%. -- is off .3%. way down that we do have the yen summer today. -- the fed cash regional loss we have seen in three sessions. you can see when you look at the regional index that there was nowhere for investors to hide. the weaker oil price lang into the oil and gas sector which is .1%.
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.1%.mer stocks were down toyota has added to that recall. toyota shares down 1.4% in tokyo. to shareting for sony its outlook for the year. that was delayed due to the earthquake last month. you can see the weakness coming through through the commodity players. just having a quick look at currencies. the aussie dollar in focus after the rba governor gave no signal that we will see more rate cuts and australia. the weaker -- rate cuts in australia. aussie dollar -- guy. guy: juliette saly wrapping up
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the aging session. -- the asian session. muchs are watching, very focus on deutsche bank. "a2."" to the stoxx look like they're going to open down. we continue to work our way through the end of the week. janet yellen could be the big story. how much focus are you putting on what the yellen story is going to be? jean: i think it is important. i think the fed is in an uncomfortable edition. -- uncomfortable position. the economy is not that strong. [indiscernible]
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it is a very tricky for them. guy: he is go to stay with us. the market open, next. ♪
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guy: good morning. i'm guy johnson in the city of london. the start of european trading. here is your morning moody's his worry that it will hit crimes turner plan. you have the latest from frankfurt on this story. seo doesn stanley james thurman that he expects a lot of upside after a charging c-1. governor mark carney is back in front of the mps today. this market open will go this morning, not very far.
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european markets close negative yesterday it looks like a close negative this morning as well. keep an eye and deutsche bank and unit credit. the finance sector is firmly in focus. let's get you those morning numbers. it looks like it's going to be a light start to the morning. those are the numbers. 0.1% buther less than will soften a little bit. in the meantime let's get details about how these markets are trading. you say, there is a bit of a week legacy from asia. we saw them drop for the first time in three days. it looks like it is a pretty broad-based set of losses. likee moment, it looks i.t. and financials are leading the losses but every industry
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group is down today. it is red across the board. let's look at some of the stocks we are watching at the open. i look at the deutsche bank in a minute. what we've got here, first quarter sales of 2.7 billion pounds. that is broadly in line with estimates. , b and q saleser up 3.6%. bit of a gain. just waiting for swiss come to move -- it looks like it is down 1.5%. cut if facing 74% pay the electorate votes to limit executive compensation at state-controlled companies and finally looking at deutsche bank, this opening lower as well. it had its credit rating cut by
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moody's. the german lender faces mounting challenges in carrying out its turnaround. it is now cut it to levels above junk. on a couple of fronts pushing the stock lower. >> a bunch of stocks again today on the list. going ex dividend. how -- what is it going to take for the u.s. to get back. we saw the lightest outflows from european equities we are seen in quite some time. but nevertheless very negative story. >> i think the momentum's we have seen -- all the reasons why we've seen these like a lower interest rates, lower oh price,
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dollar over euro, as are all reasons from last year and not this year so obviously this will be quite difficult. if momentum is slowing down. >> you talked about the fact that they need a diversified portfolio. walk me through the numbers. >> one of the key sectors we look at and europe is the housing sector. that's the sector we like where we see that right now there is a little bit of overplayed negativity leading to the american presidential campaign on the health care sector or you have plenty of very strong companies in europe. certificate but he like this that gets one of our largest positions. this is definitely a sector where we feel extremely relaxed in europe. inmentioned before a case point. it's a great company.
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very strong financial discipline. you have quite a few stronghold in europe. you do notr is that have that many options in europe. that's why you need to build a portfolio where you can actually meet folks not just in europe but also the u.s. and the rest of the world. guy: you just listed a number of his this is that are global. you are not playing the european domestic, maybe having reached its peak. you look at germany and i'm looking at a domestic-driven story. why am i not focusing on that domestically-driven story? >> it will remain very dependent on what is happening on the export front. one of the big issues with europe is that there is still a very unbalanced area. it's not just 1000 of europe which is breaking the rules in terms of budget deficit, it's
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germany breaking the rules in terms of current account surplus which is way above the ceiling that we have in the treaties and agreements, which have been agreed by the partners. the problem for germany is what is happening in the rest of the world and the capacity of the domestic economy to compensate the headwinds globally that remain a bit of a? . downgrade to the euro targets for european equities. you aret be something on board with question mark -- on board with? we believe the capacity basically playing the overall performance of the market is quite constrained and also the relatively weak economic momentum on the other handsome probably want to be a lot more specific. much more playing the
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specific story taking advantage of the volatility of the markets without reinforcing ourselves on the stocks and bonds that we like when there is a moment of panic among investors. >> seeing volatility rises. >> if he took an average at the beginning of the year, european volatility is now at levels we have not seen since the financial crisis. volatility is rising because we have these geopolitical problems compounded by the fact that we had so many liquidity injections by the central bank that it is creating instability in the market. this combination together with a lot of liquidity is creating this huge volatility which is why as an investor in need to be able to produce a pate and look through this volatility if you are trying to play the just trying to play the momentum game . >> we need to talk about france. i want to take on what is happening in that country now.
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up next as well, we will talk about what is happening with the fed. is it on the right path? san francisco's will you him saying the central bank strategy is the right one. more that story next. stay tuned as well because were having a sitdown with the barclays ceo. francine lacqua will be speaking to jed bailey. from annual european financial services conference. ♪
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february a look at exactly what is happening around europe. toxics hundred down by 0.4%. we will focus on deutsche once again. on the downside this morning that 60 where the focus is. there are a few activities there. the your tunnel has dividends as well. the tanks -- the banks are generally being watched quite carefully. got ex those have
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dividend. let's give you an update on what you need to know. >> thank you, guys. worthmay need a bailout trillions of dollars according to an animist doing a timeless research. she has now cautioned that beijing will have to provide vast sums. some of asia's top china watchers watching the one -- the yuan. it is down more than 1% this month. has warned that the market could fall into panic. he says china will use the daily fixing and verbal support to avoid hurting investors. one of the most expensive hedge funds is trimming fees.
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the highest money managers face a growing backlash over there performance. reduce most space to according -- the fees were 2.75% and 27%. after months of protests against france will hold on's government, some demonstrators are getting aggressive. fears are growing as truck drivers illegally block -- meanwhile the vandals party has been -- the socialist party has been vandalized across the country. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 450 news bureaus around the world. a heavy with us am
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heard about the french government -- are you worried about the french government? how worried? >> not that much because we have the presidential election next year and that will change everything. momently this is a key where you can it will implement reforms what we're seeing now is how difficult it is for a politician. reforms andsenate it is transforming gradually into the forensic referendum. what he is basically telling you is that you need to intimate reforms as you're being elected. it's a lot more difficult to reform. every country has its own political agenda. guy: it is all eight french refineries.
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data, thismpact the will be further weakness that we saw growing through. sentimentee want more and real data. remember in 1995 we have the complete standdown of the thetry for months and economy grows by less than 0.2% of gdp. so the real economic impact will probably be much lower than the sentiment. but the sentiment is obviously quite important. >> sentiment is not good. >> as i'm sitting here looking at sentiment on the economy. if i'm running a company, or my investments. is going to be -- walk me through how it's going to work. >> you cannot make a very compelling investment case right now because you have a president who is a bit of a lender in
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anticipation of the election, there is a clear lack of visibility and honestly this is hindering if you want the gross potential. so you have companies which are doing very well but they are doing very well for very specific reasons. the overall macroeconomic situation is up obvious the not very supportive. the kind of boosters we had last year like the lower oil price and lower interest rate and lower hero behind us. going forward, it's going to be tougher. and it's pretty unappealing. be aing forward it will lot more cases of picking some interesting companies when they ask them rather than trying to make a kind of cool -- call on the country or even the region. >> what are your colleagues say about what we're doing?
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>> good for france in economic terms, bad for france in economic terms? >> i think people are struggling to understand it because people think it's quite dangerous. it's something that is so crucial. so they are puzzled by the decision to put forward the referendum. as far as the outcome is concerned i don't think anybody will think that there are opportunities for the rest of europe. guy:'s of paris does not become a financial center overnight. >> i don't think so. we have seen a few years ago when we had this big european crisis, the call for switzerland. the new financial center of europe. as a matter of fact london has kept its dominance. if youdo not re-create want the very large financial sector like this.
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happen, it would hinder the momentum behind london becoming a bigger and bigger financial sector. >> let's talk a little bit about the fed. the san francisco fed president john williams has stayed true to forecast. speaking of the council on foreign relations in new york am a he said that inflation would pick up gradually. >> are basic strategy is the right one. slowly or gradually we are raising interest rate over the next two years. we are getting our interest rates back to normal. timing will depend on the data, depending how we are doing relative to our goals. >> june, july, which one? >> i would probably think july rather than june. erase interest rates in june, they would do it
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in a hurry before we see the outcome of the brexit referendum and it would be a sign that they are actually behind and need to catch up. i think the most probable scenario is that they will lay the ground for a july rate hike. and it will be very consistent with what they have said. guy: went out the next one after that? >> ethic and be very data dependent. how thel really see coming rate rise will be digested by the economy. i don't think we can have a kind of master plan. we know it is a template for protection and what we know is they are quite constrained. deliveringhey can be on the technology at the time when we see a bit of inflation.
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at the same time they do not want to create a new financial marketby upsetting the in the general and financial sector in particular by pushing for a rate hike which could hinder the economic development. >> the beginning of last week we had it for percent chance of a june hike price into the work function as we call it here. the military function of bloomberg -- that we call it here at bloomberg. the market reaction thus far has been remarkably benign. the fed will look at that and say, maybe this time we can get our communication strategy to work. think they need to communicate without upsetting the market. it's not so much if you want the rate hike per se, but rather the package -- how you package and sell it to the market. we had some mixed success in the past.
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but what we can say is that so far, what we have seen over the last months and quarters is relatively simple in terms of how they were able to gradually increase interest rates and turn the corner in terms of moving from unconventional monetary policy. it is still a very long road ahead. next prepared for the downturn. guy: thank you for spending so much of your time with us this morning. thank you for joining us. next, it's no longer enough for money managers to make good bets. we will look at the hedge fund short position. .hat story is next ♪
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guy: after the event which is the biggest loser in the banking center this morning. what is interesting as the unicredit where we may see a change in management today trading up by 0.7%. by 0.4%.st loser down
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let's stay with the banking theme. these days, hedge funds are fighting to keep investors on site as well. fund managers and their backers haven't pulled that. we joined now by tom whose been looking at the hedge funds. >> tells about portugal in these bets. >> there's a smallish portuguese bank that has been in the headlines recently because he treated its investors and away they are not happy with. they merged a couple of years ago from the collapse of portugal's largest bank and had some legacy problems. the transferring senior bonds back to the bad bank which essentially made them worthless but some investors had shorted them. >> so talking to the story surrounding how that played out. >> it wasn't apparent to
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everyone about six months before. a few investors thought we don't buy the book on this unless it was a profitable by. the portuguese central-bank in the financial system which essentially runs the bank were struggling to find buyers so attracting capital from outside was looking bad. >> what happened with the senior debt that they anticipated the way that it was moved from one to the other or was it some thing else they saw? >> is a good question because it would've been a good short position even if it hadn't happened. because the operational performance of the bank was very poor. >> in hindsight. everything seemed obvious. >> the right but not for the reasons they initially assumed. >> after the event you might claim some wisdom that you did not have before.
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>> if they had got it right, what would have been the pickup? >> it depends on the position. we think it was in the tens of millions which is fairly substantial for a sort of bank that isn't huge but the twist in the tale is of the three funds we know shorted them, only one was able to pick up one. >> the wider context of hedge funds is in great at the moment. there's a very particular story related to the btg. to returnally the had a lot of money to investors. for reasons unrelated to know the back of. just a few weeks before. >> they had to make the call and as a result of which the positions got cleared. >> thank you very much, tom. could nigeria the about to devalue its currency?
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the nation's central-bank could make a big decision. remember, barclays very soon with francine lacqua. ♪
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guy: look at. you are watching "on the move." .1%,toxx 600 is now up by but we were down earlier, so they have absolutely firmed. some of the energy stocks are pushing us higher. the banking sector is under pressure and deutsche bank id s down right now. let's get more details on some of these stocks stories with nejra. up -- well, it is still up double digits, up 10%.
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seb, we got some news after the market closed yesterday. it is going to purchase the german silverware and coffee machine maker wmf. this deal is valued at 1.6 billion euros. the buyout firm is kkr. this is according to people familiar. seb has been competing with chinese bidders, as well as european companies, for this company, wmf. this comes after after it agreed to purchase germany's company last week. this has been in an mma mode. now, kingfisher is also a little higher. this stock, according to my bloomberg is actually asked dividenex dividend today. the estimate was 2.7 2 billion pounds, but it be estimates.
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so, we had a beat on those units. perhaps, that is why we can see the stop moving higher. little lowera after exports suffered a second straight double-digit decline. he shipments plunged 11% in april after a 16% drop in march. this comes a few days after richemont seized a challenging market. guy? guy: thank you very much indeed, i, nejra. let's go from nejra to nigeria. the decision will be made later today. reporter, our nigeria who is only phone now. so, what are we going to get today, paul? are we finally going to see the
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valuation we have been talking about? paul: yes, we could possibly get that. the rates could go up from 12% to 14.5%. i is according to a bloomberg survey. what investors will be looking at most closely is what the central bank does with the currency. banks, including archelau barclays and goldman sachs, think they will weaken it by introducing the exchange rate. that is because of the dollar shortages in the country getting worse and worse and the country's fx continues to fall the vice president hinted at the devaluation, saying it was something the government was considering as part of a review of the fx system. a big question is, whether the president has made it clear it is his, not the central bank's.
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he li likened this to a merger back in february. he has got no other option and so far, we do not know what his thinking is. he has not said anything in response to the vice president's comments. guy: have we not already effectively seen this happen? we are seeing some energy importers, some companies being permitted to buy at a different rate. is it not already becoming part of the landscape? yes, many nigerians and a small businesses are already using the unofficial, or rates,arket, for the which are much weaker than the official one. the problem is, the commercial banks are not allowed to trade at anything that is much weaker than the official rate. so, the bank market is still pegged and that is what will
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have to change if the country is going to adjust the dollar inflow. so, big asset managers wanting to invest in nigeria for example, they can't come into the country using the unofficial market rate. they would not be permitted to use it. until the inter-bank rate is trade atand banks can something other than the official exchange rate, we will not see inflows. guy: great stuff, paul wallace, joining us from lagos. let's continue the conversation with a man who knows a thing or two about investing. kenya surprised us yesterday and nigeria today? >> well, we were aware of the possibility of the hike rates. and hopefully, the central bank will allow the banks to sell the dollars at different exchange rates.
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they can purchase dollars, but they don't have anybody to buy them from. we hope the central bank offers the opportunity for banks to trade away from the official market price. guy: what happens if they don't? charles: if they don't, we could end up with shortages and the hike in the oil price that we saw, that has helped in the short-term. but if people cannot access the dollars to purchase the fuel, we will have fuel shortages. guy: you look at countries that have pegs and you look at the problems that i have having. is it becoming increasingly clear that most of these pegs are unsustainable? clears: it is becoming that that is true. we have seen nigeria hike rates, and that is an attempt to hold the currency in place. kenya yesterday cut rates 100 basis points, saturday pakistan cut by 25 basis points.
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that is a function that they can afford to do so. they have the floating exchange rate. in fact, they have currencies appreciating. that is what nigeria would like to do, get the currency to a positive place. guy: how much is this affecting the oil price and the difficulties they are having in the delta? charles: this is certainly about the oil price and the delta is not happening, but the underlying issue comes back to the president himself. the last time he was in power in 1985, nigeria's economy was growing at a percent. -- was growing at 8%. thehink it was to do with oil price collapsing in 1986. the difficulty there is the president's fued is influencing
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the currency debate at the moment. guy: where is the good news story in kenya at the moment? charles: there is an east africa story working pretty well. kenya is going at 6%. tanzania has seen good credit growth. the new president is fighting corruption. so, what is special about east africa? they tend to be importers of oil and natural energy, for now. they are the beneficiaries, like pakistan and turkey, who micah cutprices -- who might oil prices today. guy: let's have a quick conversation about turkey. we might see rates being raised today. but the biggest concern surrounds what is going to happen in terms of the government and cuts. and what will happen in terms of the reform agenda.
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how do you analyze turkey right now? charles: we have denmark on democratization and so on, pointing out that turkey will not lose democracy. it is too rich to lose democracy, but there is a weakening of democracy happening. that is concerning investors. thathift in the law occurred last week will remove immunity, and that will hurt turkey's hopes to be a part of the european union. in fact, i think it makes it almost impossible for now. that is yet another obstacle for investors looking at turkey. it is the route to a better future. guy: you are talking about the cut and the fact that we might see that coming from the central bank. he tried to play a steady hand. he tried to lean in against the was happening in terms of the economy and what was happening politically. he is gone now, so does the central bank have any credit in terms of what is happening in turkey?
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charles: that governor was seen as the man's man, but no longer. th have seen the same aswiht the prime minister. he is not right for the job. whoever is standing up and acting in an independent way in turkey is having problems right now and that is not good for the market. guy: presumably, you are watching what is happening in washington. you saidyes, but as this morning, the markets are taking this into account. so, what we are looking for is, where is the real value, anyway? south africa, many problems, and yet, the south african rand on a 20 year view, you have rarely seen the rand this cheap in the last 20 years. so, notwithstanding all of the problems. guy: there is so much bad news priced in now that it looks like there could be an investment cut. charles: but the rand does look
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interesting, yes. guy: interesting stuff. thank you there is much in, charles robinson. , mark carney prepares to face mp's. ahead of his testimony, we will hear from a labor mp who is backing tthe brexit. will be speaking live at 10:30 a.m. u.k. time. this will be with jes staley, arclays' ceo. ♪
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guy: 43 minutes past the hour. welcome back. you are watching "on the move." french demonstrators are getting aggressive and fears are shortages.arding meanwhile, the offices of the socialist party have been vandalized in several cities just north of the river. this has been happening across the country and happened yesterday. we have the details from paris. greg, talk to me about these fuel shortages. how serious are they? greg: well, if you are a driver, pretty serious. about 20% of the french dry,nations are completely or lacking one kind of you will or another. that is 240,000 around the
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country. see theurs, you can difference it has made. every morningork and there is a gas station i normally don't notice and this morning, there was a huge line, several blocks long. there was a lot of anger flaring between drivers. the government is trying to be reassuring, saying this is a question of panicky drivers unnecessarily filling up their tanks. there is evidence that that is true. a family some gas stations have reported three times the normal number of clients. the government has also said they have strategic reserves, but whatever. there is still a very uneasy sense among drivers in this country right now. guy: we will watch with interest. greg, thank you very much indeed. mark carney will now face brexit questions from parliament's treasury select committee this morning in his last public engagement before a pre-eu vote.
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joining us now to discuss the referendum is the labor mp. she claims voting to leave is a left wing move. good morning, kate. kate: good morning. guy: talk to me where you are. we are wondering where the labour party is and where you are and how it all fits together. how strong is the brexit party? kate: within the parliamentary party, there are not many members of parliament that want to leave. there are about 20 of us. but within the country, labor supporters and labor votes, there are probably about a 35% to 40%, or maybe more, of voters who want to leave. it is very different from the leadership. labor used to be a very anti-eu party. event changed under tony blair -- it then changed under tony blair.
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and of course now, our news leader, who was very anti-eu, has decided it is in the best interest of the labour party to have a united view. our view is that we will never reform the eu. that is why we are happy with a trade. politicalant the structure that you would not have in the united states between the united states and say, mexico and canada. you trade freely, but don't have a mexican court overruling the united states court. we want to have a relationship with the eu that is cooperative, but that also recognizes we are living in a global world now and we, as the fifth-largest economy, should be looking internationally and become independent. guy: is this an economic argument for you? it sounds like a political argument. kate: for me, underlying this is democracy and sovereignty. i have seen treaty after treaty change the way the european
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union works, which is very different from the way people voted in 1973. now is the opportunity for the british people do have their say. it has changed and taken more and more powers away from the british parliament. and of course, if the five president's report, which has been released recently, was to come to fruition, there is only one track for the european union and that is going in the direction of the brussels party. so, it is democratic to me. at underlining that all is confidence in my country and a feeling that we could do so much better outside the shackles of a really, economically shrinking eu in relation to the rest of the world. guy: so, what the make of the economic case that has been forward by the treasury? mark carney will be testifying in front of mp's later on and his view is very clearly that there will be a massive short-term economic it to the british economy.
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kate: it is short-term anyway, but the reality is that all of the treasury forecasts have been wrong. so have the international monetary funds. so, of all these bodies that are piling in at the request of our prime minister a to say how dreadful it would be if we were to leave, they were all wrong in saying the world would end if we did not join the single currency. so, i don't have a great deal of faith in these bodies coming in tos ay these things. there are a lot of uncertainties, yes. uncertainties about remaining in the eu because of what is happening with the eurozone and the fact that we are not in it. the uncertainty about leaving to me, is that we will be in control, but the uncertainty of remaining is that we will lose more and more control. and of course, we get back control of our borders. guy: you are talking about the
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democratic deficit. do you think there is a democratic deficit that surrounds this debate? the views seem to be incredible, in terms of the extremes they are taking. and the campaign fear, as the front page of private eye put it, seems to have taken over. how can we get the british people to make an informed decision on something that is so important, given the nature of the debate we have? are you disappointed? kate: yes, i am disappointed. i think the prime minister could have led a very differently on this, having said a few months ago that there was no fear about leaving the eu. he was pretending he was going up to negotiate and that we were a great country. suddenly, all of these dreadful things are going to happen to us and each morning you wake up wondering, who was going to say what now? i think that has then led to the other side saying things that are slightly exaggerated too. i do think in the end, i have a
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great confidence in the british public. we are a very common sense people and believe on june 23rd, many of them willv vote on a feeling of instinct. anybody who looks at this sensibly cannot see that long-term we are going to be better off. but working internationally, globally cooperating, we can do all of those things. market is not a single in japan is not a single market, but they trade with the eu. there is absolutely nothing to fear for the british peopleon june 23. guy: thank you very much indeed. up next, the expectations are expected to improve in may for germany. ♪
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guy: what are we expecting to hear from him? matt: first of all, i would love to know what their forecasts are for inflation and for economic growth. we have seen some conflicting numbers here in the eu, and strong numbers for germany and guy: we looking forward to what
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he has to say. speaking of independent, he told me to ask about the tancio ifd to ask cons they have a contingency plan for the uk leaving the eu.
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there. will wrap it up matt miller, looking forward to that interview out of frankfurt. richard jones will be joining me on bloomberg radio very shortly. ♪
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