tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg May 24, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
i'm mark barton you're watching the european close on "bloomberg markets." ♪ mark: we are going to take you from new york to london next hour. here is what we are watching today. russia is returning to the international bond market. one bank is making it happen. we would give you the latest on the. at. shery: green across the board with tech and financials leading the gains. european shares are also higher thanks to the falling euro. his: mark carney makes final appearance ahead of the eu referendum next month. he says the central bank has been a neutral party and the brexit th -- in the brexit
debate. shery: let's head to the markets desk julie hyman has the latest on the rally. julie: it's been gaining steam with all three averages at highs for the session. the nasdaq leading gains. as i mentioned earlier, we are pending this rally on the changing perception of what the fed is going to do in terms of raising rates. we've not seen news since yesterday on that front. it is not only a steep rally, but a broad-based rally. that means the s&p 500 is now in the green for the month. ifay may salvage the month this rally does continue for the next several days. it has been a very tight range for the s&p 500 over the course of the month by about 50 points. that is unusual and a low bit different than what we had seen in april. giving back to today's session, we have all green on
this wheel. that does not happen very often here. technology is helping lead the games along with the financials today. we are also seeing a big lift and health care industrials and consumer discretionary. it back to the cyclical oriented or economic sensitive stocks. they have been rising this year when we have seen more evidence of higher rates sooner. in terms of they cap tech, apple is one of the stocks doing well. going back to may 13, we have now seen the stock climbed by some 8% here. remember that berkshire hathaway was sort of giving the stock a little bit of a boost by revealing its stake in the company. i want to reiterate what we are seeing with home builders after we got that big new home sales number. they are rising in today's session. mark: i'm digging into the chemicals industry on the stoxx
600, julie, while i was listening to you. shares are rising on that reuters report that monsanto has rejected that offer. we here at bloomberg have confirmed that. we will keep an eye on that as we have been saying monsanto shares are trading below the offer price since yesterday. there are severe doubts that this deal should or could go ahead because of regulatory issues. it should go ahead because of doubts from bayer shareholders that they could afford it. that is interesting. we will monitor both share prices. all 19 industry groups are rising. we are up by 2.2%. this is the real reason that the euro is down to a two-month low. dilemma cut is one of the worst performance on the stoxx 600 today.
it is the owner switzerland's biggest pharmacy network. it says it will split into separate companies by the end of 2017. in march, its back said the division would probably occur sometime this year. 11 analysts cover the stock. none have a buy rating and seven have a hold and four have a sell. the average from the analyst is 1.230.30 -- shares are down by 1.83% today. capital partners are selling its remaining stake in the company after helping to transform the german chemical company to a more profitable business focus on animal nutritional ingredients. the private equity firm sold 19.8 million shares priced at a discount. 25.5 euros apiece. quite anbeen
investment for the company, but the shares today are down by 3.8%. on the macro level, we had some data from germany. german investor confidence dropping for the first time in three months. it is a sign that growth momentum is stalling amid concerns about a u.k. exit from the eu. and index of investor and analyst expectations fell 6.4 from 11.2. separately we had some strong gdp data from the first quarter. the german economy grew by .7%, the strongest growth in a couple of years. the bundesbank has warned us that the economy will not grow as strongly this quarter. german investor confidence falling for the first time in three months. shery: thanks so much for that. let's check in on the first word news this morning. taylor riggs has more from the newsroom. taylor: french prosecutors have rated google's offices in paris.
it is part of a probe into possible tax fraud. it has to do with whether google's irish unit's permit we established in france and where it has declared all that's revenue. google is under fire in europe for the small amount of taxes it pays there. the company says it's cooperating with authorities. according to one egyptian fficial, there is sign that an explosion brought down the air jet in the mediterranean. remain suggested that there was a blast on board although there was nothing that indicated the cost of the explosion. and egyptian run news agency denies the report. voting rights are in the spotlight today. the federal appeals court hears arguments about a strict texas voter id law that was found to be unconstitutional last year. texas requires residents to show one of seven forms of approved identification. prevents fraudit
and opponents say it is discriminatory. the concussion legacy foundation says former pro football player bubba smith was diagnosed with cte after his death. he died back in 2011 at the age of 66. he is one of 90 former nfl players diagnosed with cte since 2008. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world, i'm taylor riggs. mark: is been a rough time for banks in europe since barclays chief executive came forward in december. they cut down wit 10,000 jobs daily. he sat down with francine lacqua , discussing changes in the financial industry since the crisis in the bank's current division. >> in the global economy, we clearly have to adjust to a drop
in commodity prices. i've got a lot of confidence in china's ability to manage and transition in the chinese economy. we all may be a little bit too pessimistic on the outlook for the global economy. i do not quite see the risk their. i also believe the banking industry is so deep risk from ked from where it was before. if there is a risk, it's the markets byrading in in the citizens with very low capital. that is all a risk we need to keep our i eye on. >> it would be something that people do not keep an eye on could actually bring the system down your? again? >> we need to focus on the most liquid markets and the players
that are leading the liquidity in those markets and how much capital they have behind their positions. and how will the market adjust if one of them get into trouble. >> what will it take for investors to rewrite european banking stocks? >> i think of you that we now have predictability in how the regulators will deal with banks going forward cou. that is probably the most important thing. we need to believe that we are at the beginning of the end of the regulatory environment for european banks going forward. we need to believe that we are at the beginning of the end of the contract issues, whether it is rmbs in the united states or ppi in the u.k.. there needs to be a sense that we have a vision to some predictability around the bottom line results of banks. >> on regulation, do you feel like it's a level playing field? >> i think the regulators have ofenormously difficult task
read regulating this vast, complex industry, the making industry. i know they have a goal to try to make it a level playing field between home countries and host countries and european banks and u.s. banks in asian banks. it's not going to be perfect. i have confidence that the regulators want this to be a level playing field and they will make the course corrections as we go to allow that to happen. >> we are month away from the brexit. do you feel there is a discount on barclays because you are in the whirlwind of a possible brexit concern? >> i think for sure. the markets are being impacted by the uncertainty of this note. is a historic vote for sure. as our chairman has said in his letter, it is the best thing for our customers that the u.k. votes to stay part of the european union. to that date, the
uncertainty will impact financial markets. >> you have a contingency plan in case of brexit happens? >> we manage the bank to deal with all contingencies. we are very comfortable to manage any stress level that comes our way, but clearly we hope the u.k. stays in the european union. >> are you also planning or is there a plan b? >> we plan for everything. >> is there a concern that somewhere like berlin or paris or frankfurt becomes number one in the financial sector is brexit were to happen? the history of london being one of the world's greatest financial sectors is very important for the u.k. and for barclays obviously. we look forward to our presence in the two financial sectors of the world today being new york and london. jeshat was barclays ceo staley. shery: hear he is talking about
financial regulations. >> there is uncertainty about what is coming on with brussels and france and this creates uncertainty about capital, about risk. i think regulators now need to that we give time to the bankers to adapt and start optimizing their business model. stop the uncertainty, i think. mark: we are to continue the banking conversation on bloomberg television. deutsche bank chief executive is disappointed after moody's credit rating. do not miss this interview. ♪
shery: a beautiful shot of london right there. live from london and new york, i am shery ahn. mark: i am mark barton and this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." deutsche bank's chief executive says the bank has never had more capital and can easily repay its debt many times over. that is after moody's investors service cut the banks credit rating, saying the lender faces mounting challenges. joining us now is the senior credit officer at moody's investors. does the bank have enough capital to pay its debt many times over? is that a valid argument? >> when you think about what our rating action was about, are
rating action was about the increased headwinds that the bank is facing in terms of the operating environment and its results have been in decline for the past couple of quarters. are is what drove are rating down. one of the reasons the rating is stable is that the stability at the bank is supportive of the rating. mark: what is the biggest chlenge of deutsche bank achieving this big turnaround? peter: the turnaround has many elements to it. it has been a disciplined execution by the new management team. what they are trying to do is they are trying to change the balance of the earnings mix of the bank. they are trying to strengthen the balance sheet. they are trying to revitalize the technology platform of the bank. they are trying to do all these things. all these things, if they are
achieved, would be quite positive, but they are challenging to achieve them all. most: what are the important factors for your clients? we are taking a look at counterparty risk assessment and long-term deposit rating. they are still in the territory. peter: absolutely. we think our methodology discriminates widely between the various liabilities that a bank has -- counterparties, depositors, senior creditors. we have a number of ratings. we did lower the ratings, but you're absolutely correct that the counterparty risk assessment rating, which speaks to certain operating liabilities is still in the a range. shery: deutsche bank's net income fell more than 60% in the first quarter. are they now at a risk of reporting their second annual loss?
how big of an impact will this have on how you evaluate the company? peter: we have a forward-looking view and what we have said is that we are anticipating as much as a modest loss this year. we are not saying that is our projection, but that is what is incorporated into the rating. that would be within our expectations and within the stable outlook. mark: does deutsche bank need to raise more capital? ratio dippedpital back a little bit this quarter, as you know. -- theye the plan to are selling their chinese bank by the end of the quarter, which will boost the capital ratio by 40-50 basis points. i think the key will be whether they can keep the earnings trajectory keep on to stay onside.
they are doing everything they can not to have to raise that capital. mark: and the investment bank, we know from the shareholders meeting last week, mr. cry am is keon this key on sticking wih it. is that a wise plan? is deutsche bank still correct to invest so much faith in the investment banking business? function ofn be a what your alternatives are. deutsche bank is a little more dependent than many of its peers on investment banking. some firms have come if you take ebs as an example, they have shrunk their investment bank and try to emphasize wealth management. deutsche bank's wealth management business has been growing, but it's not as substantial as ubs'.
i think they are playing the hands that they have been dealt. shery: peter, thank you for your time. it is time now for the bloomberg business flash, a look at some the biggest business stories in the news right now. it may be a big spring selling season for american homebuilders. new-home sales rose 17% in april to the highest levels since the start of 2008. that is well above expectations. the median sale price was almost 10% in the last year to $341,000. apple has run into a roadblock to boosting its presence in india. tim cook went to india last week to push his best-selling iphone. according to people familiar with the matter, regulators have ruled that apple must comply with local enforcing rules to sell products in india for its own stores. that means apple would have to by 30% of its components locally.
consumer electronics chain best buy is forecasting a second-quarter profit that missed estimates. best buy also announced the an executive who has been instrumental in the company's recent turnaround. that is your big sis flash for this hour -- business flash for this hour. boe mark carney gives testimony to lawmakers today. and warning of a potential recession should the u.k. leave the eu. more highlights coming up next. ♪
committee. he gave the most robust defense yet of the bank of england's comment on the european union voted. >> we have not supported a side of the campaign. supported the end, which by our actions may be inconvenient to you, but by our actions, we have made it more likely that we will bring inclusion back to target whatever the outcome of the referendum sooner. and that will be a better economic outcomes. to suggest otherwise is to try to undermine that. mark: a rare example of the governor displaying flashes of anger at a u.k. lawmaker. governorto rile the the last time he appeared before
lawmakers. he even suggested the governor should resign. carney defending himself, defending his neutrality by saying it is the bank's job to highlight the risk. of fascinating combative fascinating,a combative viewpoint between the two gentlemen. i want to bring you to the bank of england inflation and where we are right now. this is the chart i've been looking at. u.k. inflation right now is at .3%. core inflation is at 1.2%. we are way below the bank of england's 2% target. quarterlyek's inflation report, the bank still projected two-year inflation at 2.1% and three-year inflation at 3.2%. the bank is still confident it will reach its inflation targets, which suggests the next move in rates is an upward movement. it all depends on the referendum next month. shery: the governor is only
human. we are also seeing tempers flare up everywhere because it is a heated debate. toers have only four weeks go before the referendum and campaigning is in full swing. carney's view about a brexit could spark a recession has ruffled feathers of pro-leave lawmakers. here is carney again on how he is looking at the economy. >> given the uncertainty engendered during this campaign, there is a higher bar in reading current economic data to give a sense of the underlying momentum in the economy. mark: that is the european close. ♪ okay, ready?
stocks have rally today. julie and i have been pondering the question. every industry group rising today. we are up by 2.4%. as wehe bank in the news just spoke to the credit analyst that movies that downgraded torture two levels above junk. john cryan says his bank has never had more capital and can easily repay its debt many times. that is why the outlook is stable according to an analyst that we just spoke to. ubs and credit suisse have normalized at 100. these are the 2016 performers. deutsche bank shares are down by 28% and barclays is down by 17%. sse's lower.ze hiui an interesting support from
switzerland. swiss watch exports have suffered a second month of a double-digit decline. it is widening well beyond hong kong to europe. exports have fallen for the last 10 months. exports to hong kong, the world biggest market for swiss timepieces, fell for the 15th straight month. shipments were down. shares of richemont are lower earlier. i've done a little chart showing to big european watchmakers and how they have fared. swatch down 24% and richemont down 32%/ i. i want to finish on mark carney in the referendum. the euro continuing to fall today to 76 pence. we are at the lowest level since february right now. it is further evidence that the
remain camp is gaining ground. older voters in the u.k. previously found to be backing leaving the eu are switching sides. afteralso showing concern mark carney today telling lawmakers the referendum is creating substantial uncertainty for the economy. investors are cheered by those polls that shows those older voters are backing remaining as well as those who are tory supporters. the referendum momentum seems to be with the remain camp. shery: we are seeing another rally here in the u.s. as well. we are asking why. u.s. stocks arising the most in a week. financials are leaving those games. we are seeing increasing speculation that the fed will raise interest rates in. soon. the s&p 500 gaining 1.3%. the dow up 1.2%.
the nasdaq gaining 1.7%. let us now bring in abigail doolittle, who is live from the nasdaq. what are you seeing their? re? abigail: the global rally in equities is taking place at the nasdaq. the index is up 1.6%. in the nasdaq 100, there's only one stock trading down. one of the biggest boosts for the nasdaq. are the shares of apple. it is the longest winning streak in more than a month from bullish to bearish as wells fargo is saying that yesterday's report that apple has asked suppliers to prepare for work iphone seven some expected is likely to cause consensus estimates -- to drive estimates above consensus. perhaps an upside to the estimates. todayr big performer here
at the mastec are shares of netflix, up nearly 4% as it was announced that netflix has an exclusive deal with disney. that will start this fall the netflix will exclusively stream disney movies. there are some analysts that say success in this market for netflix is a matter of the race for content. the deal with disney is a big positive for shares of netflix, up today at 4%. shery: as been quite a year for up, down, and down, up. that movement has backed up for the from that. on that movement, sellers have trust the buyers and reversed a bullish uptrend. in the near, buyers may have control. it is suggesting the stock could
pop higher in the near-term, up $100 per share for netflix. time will tell. shery: let's check in the bloomberg first word news this morning. taylor riggs has more from the newsroom. haver: in turkey, stocks gained since double boost. the prime minister has decided to keep the last man standing of a market friendly team credited with turkey's economic boom years. he will remain deputy premier. turkey central bank cut a key interest rate in line with expectations. germans must believe that the good times won't last. german investor confidence fell for the first time in three months. that may be a sign that growth momentum is about to slowdown after the economy had previously expanded at its fastest pace in two years. norway's energy minister says you will never seen oil at $100 a barrel again. brent crude is up 70% from a 12 year low this year.
norway's energy chief says his country is not planning for oil to go back to where it was. norway has been hammered by the collapse in crude. it dipped into its sovereign wealth fund to plug budget holes. greece has started to gradually the document the country's largest refugee camp. the camp sprung up on the border with macedonia and it helped more than 8000 people. macedonia is not letting any more people cross and the refugees will be taken to a new camp. and swiss watch exports are in freefall. a 10 month decline has gotten worse in april. demand for high-end watches has collapsed. cartier has cut jobs. oh mega is trying to avoid layoffs. global news 24 hours a day powered by her 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world, i am taylor riggs. shery: markets are seeking
direction right now. the s&p trading between gains and losses for the eight straight trading session. mark: the headline is the big m&a offer that m monsanto rejected the offer from bayer. to make sense is alan. clearly monsanto wants more money. bayer shareholders are spooked i the $122 a share offer. what happens now? alan: it is the first round of betting to put it in poker terms. you look at what went for a higher multiple, but more generally, i'm intrigued by the company of like bayer can issue debt so cheaply. they have a lot of ammunition right now. mark: why i like interviewing
allen higgins is that when he comes on, he sends these wonderful charts, most of which i'm not come across before. this is on my screen and it is as composition sentiment indicator. it is a bit of a mouthful but it is telling a wonderful story. anything with love and the title orthy.r where that itat it shows is helps to maybe explain data today. lies thwise the market surging today? there's so much pessimism in the market. mark: depressed sentiment correlates with positive for returns. when it is low, get ready for a rebound. the: no matter how about
fundamentals are, it is pretty hard for markets to go down when sentiment is so bad. shery: pessimism may have been overblown as we are seeing markets rally now in europe and the u.s. alan: exactly. that is what we think. on sellingd off equities because it does not make sense to sell equities in this type of environment when you have negative sentiment. if you look at for example out of the money put options, people are paying very high prices in terms of expecting volatility. another indicator of real pessimism. the fundamentals may not be that great with not a lot of earnings growth, but it looks like it is in the price. shery: i want to get into commodities because we saw this rally in gold, but now the fed has the possibility of a rate hike coming very soon.
are you repositioning yourself? alan: we are potentially going to reduce our gold exposure. i do not want to talk about things that we've not traded yet, but if you look at gold, we are seeing some higher rates in the u.s. the dollar is strengthening a little bit, so there are headwinds for gold. lessis likely to feature in people's portfolios going forward. mark: mark carney addressed lawmakers and he showed flashes of discontent and he was jake and reese cob rhys mark. buildersssentially versus the ftse 250, which are more domestic oriented stocks, which will be hit harder. since february 11, we have seen these two indices rise between 12 and 16%. are there risks here? alan: the bottom line is that
markets are discounting remains and notwithstanding the goldman accusation. the markets are now discounting remain. -- and youn the are seeing the homebuilders come back. to your point, if it is brexit, it is now a huge risk. the market is largely positioning itself for a remain. that day would be a very dramatic day. mark: i did promise our viewers to ask you why markets are rallying today? alan: no obvious reason, but sometimes on a daily basis, it can be hard. i do think this negative sentiment is key. it shows quite simply that there is a lot of bears out there already positioned short. you have to have a few marginal buyers to push the market higher. mark: thanks for joining us. alan higgins is a chief
mark: live from london and new york, i am mark barton. shery: i'm shery ahn in this is the european close. the ecb says the risk of financial market turmoil have mainased due to three factors -- slowing growth in emerging economies, weak profits at banks, and the rise of populist movements across the euro region. matt miller was that the ecb and spoke with the bank's vice president. vitor: during a certain number
of months, we are still subject thehe effects of development of commodity prices, particularly oil. so it is to be expected that we will have several months of very low and sometimes negative returns. that will start to change in the last quarter of this year and i am very confident that the forecast of next year we will be above one and we will materialize. that would continue to increase for 2018. our policies have been effective because according to several models and ways of calculating, yearve estimated that last
the inflation would've been quite negative for the whole year. and we expectuce the policy to have. matt: you do expect higher inflation than 1.6% in 2018? vitor: personally, yes. matt: let me ask about another risk -- brexit. it's not exciting political topic, but it also could have very serious financial ramifications on the european union. as a regulator, are the european banks prepared in case of a leave vote? vitor: we think so. banks are aware of the risks that exist. hedged as much as they can against those risks and judging by the amounts of exposure that we identified out there, thanks will be resilient to such a hypothesis that if it
have for a will .hile negative impacts matt: how negative do you expect that to be? vitor: that depends on economic factors in markets. one could expect some turbulence and financial markets. matt: even more turbulence than we have seen over the last six months? vitor: that was quite significant at the beginning of the year, but it has subsided and updated as you know. so we will see. it is a difficult to predict the degree of the effect that will be produced by such an event. it is certainly something i hope will not materialize. mark: the ecb vice president with bloomberg's matt miller
today. julie has got some breaking news on herbalife. julie: the company has come to a settlement over a probe as to whether or not is it is a pyramid scheme as bill ackman famously alleged, is citingyork post" an announcement between herbalife and the fcc today. the post said it cannot learn what financial penalty was involved, although it is said to be a sizable one. it is notwever that likely to change the fundamental business model of herbalife. shares are taking a leg up on this news. they have done well over the last year because the company has made indications that a settlement was at least approaching here. there seems to be some optimism
that herbalife might be able to put this chapter behind it. that is one of the reasons we have seen the stock rally not just today but over the past six months or so as this has seemed to get closer. i'm sending it back to you, but i will see you in a few minutes because we are going head-to-head. mark: it is the battle of the charts. i face off with our very own julie hyman. do not move. ♪
they see the rationale to combining with bayer, but the offer of $122 a share is low. the deal would create the world's biggest seller of seeds and farm chemicals. he isutsche bank ceo says disappointed by moody's decision to cut the banks credit rating. moody's cut the bank over unsecured debt. one of them is just two levels above junk. a3.rating fell from a2 to the bank has enough capital and could repay its debt many times over. volkswagen will be back before san francisco today. the automaker and then owners group will update a judge on settlement talks in the vw emissions scandal. there has been a tentative deal covering the owners of almost half a million vw's. there are still questions about how much money each owner will get/ .
and that is the latest bloomberg business flash. time now for our global battle of the charts where we take a look at some of the most telling charge of the day and what they mean for investors. you can access these charts on bloomberg by running the functions feature at the bottom of your screen. kicking things off is julie hyman. julie: i'm calling this chart rise of the robots. i got a courtesy of an economist here at bloomberg intelligence. it is a look at what is happening in our economy, seeing what folks like bill gross at janice have been saying. what you have been looking at his industrial production in united states. that is the white line and has taken off of the past seven years or so. on the bottom, we have manufacturing jobs, which has gone more sideways. you think with industrial production up that manufacturing jobs will be up as well, but there is one reason why the two have not moved much in tandem -- automation.
this is a thing that people at been talking about with driverless cars being talked about frequently, perhaps creating a loss of jobs in certain industries. you can see here that this is certainly already begun to broughtnd it has applications for the u.s. and the global economy for that matter if this trend is continuing. it is likely to. we have heard presence of candidates talk about job losses within manufacturing. what this chart implies is that it will be very difficult for trade policy to get these back. if it is a robot taking a job, there's not much you can do. shery: is not a matter of how many jobs you make, you have more robots to do the job. it is a pretty dim picture for some in the industry. mark, what do you have for us? i'm telling you it's going to be hard to top that. it is the rise for the robots. mark: i would like to apologize first because over the last few years, we have been either
european or u.s. centric in the battle of the charts. i speak for me and all the colleagues that have battled me since he took the helm a few days ago. just for you, i searched far and wide for an asian centric story. because the gift japanese finance minster earlier has now told us what is the one way lopsided move in the end. move.the five yen today what is wonderful is that the bloomberg terminal can show you how the yen has moved over a long time in five yen movements. this is five yen to the downside. this is five yen to the upside. since 22013, the one way move 1, 2, 3, 4d by
times. by 2000, it has happened 51 times. that means it happened once every 84 days. the last time it happened was april 28 when the boj surprised us all and decided not to change policy. thank the heavens. this one is just for you. g #btv 1423. shery: you brought it, but julie is getting me lunch. how can you beat that? [laughter] mark: what can i do? julie: i was not trying to bribe her. [laughter] mark: i'm almost speechless. that is it. "bloomberg markets" is next. ♪
scarlet: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good afternoon. i am scarlet fu. alix: i am alix steel and here's what we're watching at this hour. on santa does not want to sell itself short. it is rejecting a takeover from bayer, which would've made it the world's biggest seller of seats in farm chemicals. scarlet: john cryan is disappointed that moody's has cut the credit rating. alix: the eurozone finance ministers hope to unlock bailouts for greece. are they tried to drag out the saga? no, it's not 2011. scarlet: let's check in with julie hyman at the markets desk and we are approaching session highs. julie: it is not 2011 in the stoc